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2018 United States Senate election in Indiana

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

2018 United States Senate election in Indiana

← 2012 November 6, 2018 (2018-11-06) 2024 →
Turnout50.42%
 
Mike Braun, Official Portrait, 116th Congress.jpg
Joe Donnelly, official portrait, 113th Congress.jpg
Nominee Mike Braun Joe Donnelly
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 1,158,000 1,023,553
Percentage 50.73% 44.84%

Indiana Senate Election Results by County, 2018.svg
County results
Braun:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
Donnelly:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%

U.S. Senator before election

Joe Donnelly
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Mike Braun
Republican

The 2018 United States Senate election in Indiana took place on November 6, 2018, along with other elections to the United States Senate and House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Joe Donnelly sought reelection to a second term, facing Republican businessman and former state representative Mike Braun and Libertarian Party nominee Lucy Brenton.

In 2017, Politico described the race as "possibly the GOP's best opportunity to seize a Senate seat from Democrats" in the 2018 elections.[1] The primary election was held on May 8, 2018.[2] In October 2018, RealClearPolitics rated the race a toss-up between the Democratic and Republican nominees, with the Libertarian receiving a poll average of 6%.[3] Braun defeated Donnelly in the general election by a margin (5.9 percentage points) almost identical to Donnelly's margin of victory in 2012 (5.7).

Background

In 2012, Joe Donnelly was elected to the Senate with 50% of the vote to Republican nominee Richard Mourdock's 44%. In the 2016 presidential election, Republican nominee Donald Trump won Indiana with about 56.5% of the vote to Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton's 37.5%.[4][5]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Withdrew

  • Martin Del Rio, Iraq War veteran[7][8]

Endorsements

Joe Donnelly
U.S. Vice President
United States Senator
Organization

Results

Democratic primary results, Indiana 2018[14]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Joe Donnelly (incumbent) 284,621 100%
Total votes 284,621 100%

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in the primary election

Declined

Withdrawn

Endorsements

Mike Braun
U.S. Senators
State Senators
State Representatives
Organizations
Newspapers
Luke Messer
U.S. Representatives
State-level officials
Former state party chairs
Local-level officials
Individuals
Todd Rokita
State-level officials
Former state party chairs
Local-level officials
Individuals
Newspapers

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Luke
Messer
Todd
Rokita
Mike
Braun
Other Undecided
Strategic National (R) May 5–6, 2018 300 ± 5.7% 29% 28% 44%
Gravis Marketing April 6–11, 2018 280 ± 5.9% 13% 16% 26% 45%
GS Strategy Group (R-Rokita) January 6–9, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 9% 24% 9% 58%
GS Strategy Group (R-Rokita) July 16–18, 2017 500 ± 4.4% 20% 28% 51%
14% 21% 11% 55%
OnMedia (R-Messer) July 10–12, 2017 400 ± 4.8% 23% 23% 2% 7%[a] 45%

Results

Results by county:  Braun   80–90%   60–70%   50–60%   40–50%   <40%    Rokita   <40%   40–50%    Messer   <40%   40–50%   50–60%   60–70%
Results by county:
Republican primary results, Indiana 2018[14]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Mike Braun 208,602 41.17%
Republican Todd Rokita 151,967 29.99%
Republican Luke Messer 146,131 28.84%
Total votes 506,700 100%

Independent

Candidates

Declared

  • James Johnson, Jr.[60]

General election

Candidates

Debates

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[61] Tossup October 26, 2018
Inside Elections[62] Tossup November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[63] Lean R November 5, 2018
CNN[64] Tossup November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics[65] Tossup November 5, 2018
Daily Kos[66] Tossup November 5, 2018
Fox News[67] Tossup November 5, 2018

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of October 17, 2018
Candidate (party) Total receipts Total disbursements Cash on hand
Joe Donnelly (D) $16,100,528 $13,872,981 $2,321,981
Mike Braun (R) $16,964,706 $15,576,842 $1,387,861
Source: Federal Election Commission[68]

Endorsements

Mike Braun (R)
U.S. Executive Branch Officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Governors
State Senators
State Representatives
Cabinet-level officials
Individuals
Organizations
Joe Donnelly (D)
U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
Local officials
Individuals
Organizations
Newspapers
Declined to endorse
Organizations
  • Indiana Chamber of Commerce[130]
Newspapers

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Joe
Donnelly (D)
Mike
Braun (R)
Lucy
Brenton (L)
Other Undecided
HarrisX November 3–5, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 42% 43%
HarrisX November 2–4, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 43% 41%
HarrisX November 1–3, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 43% 42%
HarrisX October 31 – November 2, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 44% 42%
HarrisX October 30 – November 1, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 43% 43%
HarrisX October 29–31, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 40% 43%
Fox News October 27–30, 2018 722 LV ± 3.5% 45% 38% 5% 2% 9%
852 RV ± 3.0% 42% 38% 6% 2% 11%
HarrisX October 24–30, 2018 1,400 ± 2.6% 42% 42%
Marist College October 24–28, 2018 496 LV ± 5.5% 45% 42% 7% <1% 5%
48% 46% 2% 5%
800 RV ± 4.2% 43% 40% 9% <1% 7%
47% 45% 2% 7%
Cygnal (R) October 26–27, 2018 505 ± 4.4% 46% 49% 3% 2%
YouGov October 23–26, 2018 975 ± 3.7% 43% 46% 3% 0% 8%
Mason Strategies (R) October 15–20, 2018 600 ± 3.9% 43% 47% 3% 7%
American Viewpoint (R-Braun) October 14–17, 2018 800 40% 44% 7% 5%
SurveyUSA October 12–16, 2018 816 ± 4.6% 41% 40% 8% 11%
Gravis Marketing October 12–16, 2018 377 ± 5.1% 44% 40% 7% 10%
Vox Populi Polling October 13–15, 2018 783 ± 3.5% 55% 45%
American Viewpoint (R-Braun) October 7–10, 2018 800 40% 44% 7% 7%
American Viewpoint (R-Braun) September 30 – October 3, 2018 800 39% 43% 7% 5%
Fox News September 29 – October 2, 2018 695 LV ± 3.5% 43% 41% 6% 2% 9%
806 RV ± 3.5% 41% 40% 6% 1% 10%
Ipsos September 12–20, 2018 1,181 ± 3.0% 46% 43% 3% 8%
Fox News September 8–11, 2018 677 LV ± 3.5% 43% 45% 3% 1% 8%
804 RV ± 3.5% 42% 41% 4% 1% 10%
Marist College August 26–29, 2018 576 LV ± 5.0% 44% 41% 8% 1% 6%
49% 43% 2% 7%
816 RV ± 4.2% 43% 40% 8% 1% 8%
48% 42% 2% 9%
The Trafalgar Group (R) July 31 – August 7, 2018 1,420 ± 2.6% 51% 39% 11%
SurveyMonkey/Axios June 11 – July 2, 2018 952 ± 5.0% 47% 49% 4%
Gravis Marketing May 10–15, 2018 400 ± 4.9% 46% 47% 7%

Results

On November 6, 2018, Braun won the general election.[133] He swept southern Indiana, the suburbs of Indianapolis, and most other rural areas in the state. Donnelly ran well behind his 2012 vote totals, winning only in Indianapolis, the college towns (Bloomington, Terre Haute, West Lafayette, South Bend), and Northwest Indiana.[134]

United States Senate election in Indiana, 2018[135]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Republican Mike Braun 1,158,000 50.73% +6.45%
Democratic Joe Donnelly (incumbent) 1,023,553 44.84% -5.20%
Libertarian Lucy Brenton 100,942 4.42% -1.26%
Write-in 70 <0.01% N/A
Total votes 2,282,565 100% N/A
Republican gain from Democratic

Notes

  1. ^ Curtis Hill* 4%; Mark Hurt†, Terry Henderson†, and Andrew Takami† with 1%. *Hypothetical candidate. †Withdrawn.

References

  1. ^ Strauss, Daniel (August 14, 2017). "Missouri's $10M man". Politico. Archived from the original on May 9, 2018. Retrieved December 23, 2017.
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  32. ^ Myers, George (February 1, 2017). "Kokomo lawyer Mark Hurt announces US Senate bid". News and Tribune. Retrieved February 3, 2017.
  33. ^ Tribune, George Myers Kokomo. "Kokomo attorney Hurt, citing FedEx troubles and relocating residents, falls short of required signatures for candidacy".
  34. ^ "Mark Hurt on Twitter".
  35. ^ "Mark Hurt on Twitter".
  36. ^ "Purdue Polytechnic director Andrew".
  37. ^ "Andrew Takami on Twitter". Twitter.
  38. ^ "Messer Endorsed By Former Senate Candidate Andrew Takami". Luke Messer for Senate. April 9, 2018. Archived from the original on April 12, 2018. Retrieved April 11, 2018.
  39. ^ a b "Tom Coburn endorses Mike Braun in Indiana Senate race". The Washington Times.
  40. ^ a b c d e f g h i j Mike Braun. "I'm proud to announce that my campaign has been endorsed by State Rep. Chris Judy, State Rep. John Young, State Rep. Bob Morris, State Rep. Ron Bacon, State Rep. Chris May, and State Senator Liz Brown. With momentum gaining across the state I'm proud to be endorsed by some of Indiana's best leaders". Facebook.
  41. ^ a b "Citizens Fund Endorses Mike Braun for Senate in Indiana". Tea Party Patriots. May 1, 2018.
  42. ^ "NOM Endorses Candidates in Key Senate Midterm Contests". NOM Blog. Retrieved October 29, 2018.
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  44. ^ Pathé, Simone; Pathé, Simone (September 20, 2017). "Susan Brooks Chooses Sides in Indiana Senate Primary" – via www.rollcall.com.
  45. ^ a b c "Allen County State Legislators Endorse Luke Messer". Luke Messer for Senate. January 5, 2018. Archived from the original on January 8, 2018. Retrieved January 7, 2018.
  46. ^ a b c d e f g "Luke Messer Receives Tidal Wave of Support from Hamilton County Leaders". Luke Messer for Senate. December 7, 2017. Archived from the original on January 8, 2018. Retrieved January 7, 2018.
  47. ^ Matt McKinney (August 10, 2017). "Indiana State Senate President Pro Tempore David Long endorses Luke Messer for U.S. Senate". theindychannel.com.
  48. ^ "Messer Gains Endorsement from Southwest Indiana State Rep". Luke Messer for Senate. March 8, 2018. Archived from the original on March 10, 2018. Retrieved March 9, 2018.
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  71. ^ Donald J. Trump. "Will be going to Evansville, Indiana, tonight for a big crowd rally with Mike Braun, a very successful businessman who is campaigning to be Indiana's next U.S. Senator. He is strong on Crime & Borders, the 2nd Amendment, and loves our Military & Vets. Will be a big night!". Twitter.
  72. ^ Mike Pence. "Congrats to @braun4indiana on his #INSen primary victory tonight! @RealDonaldTrump & I look forward to working with you in support of the #MAGA agenda. Mike Braun will make Hoosiers proud". Twitter.
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  77. ^ Todd Young. "Congrats to Mike Braun on tonight's victory! Help keep the momentum going by following @braun4indiana for updates from the campaign trail". Twitter.
  78. ^ Jim Banks. "Congrats to @braun4indiana on your victory this evening. Team Banks looks forward to working with you to give Indiana another reliable conservative voice in the U.S. Senate in November!". Twitter.
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  81. ^ Eric Holcomb. "Hoosiers need someone who will support the kinds of things that have made Indiana a leading state for job creation, financial strength & stability, & workforce development. I believe that @braun4indiana is the right person to ensure our principles are pushed hard in Washington". Twitter.
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  91. ^ Ronna McDaniel. "It's time to send Democrat Joe Donnelly packing and elect @braun4indiana to the Senate! #INSen". Twitter.
  92. ^ [1][dead link]
  93. ^ Mike Braun. "Join me, @DonaldJTrumpJr, @kimguilfoyle, & @GregPenceIN TODAY rallying Hoosiers to get out the vote and drain the swamp! RSVP here: http://bit.ly/2JgnLjP  #INSen #IBackBraun". Twitter. External link in |title= (help)
  94. ^ Donald Trump, Jr. (August 29, 2018). "Donald Trump Jr.: Hoosiers deserve better than Donnelly". Evansville Courier & Press.
  95. ^ "FreedomWorks for America Endorses Mike Braun in Indiana Senate Race". FreedomWorks. June 4, 2018.
  96. ^ "Indiana Right to Life PAC Endorses in Federal Races". Indiana Right to Life. April 3, 2018.
  97. ^ "Small Business Endorses Mike Braun for U.S. Senate". NFIB. September 4, 2018.
  98. ^ "Pro-Life Group Endorses Mike Braun Over Pro-Abortion Joe Donnelly in Indiana Senate Race". LifeNews.com. July 12, 2018.
  99. ^ "Republican Jewish Coalition launches first wave of midterm endorsements". NBCNews.com. July 23, 2018.
  100. ^ Mike Braun. "Building my business, I've jumped over just about every hurdle D.C. can put in your path; in the Senate, I'll use my experience to help Hoosier business thrive. I'm honored to accept @USChamber's endorsement & look forward to working with them to keep our economy roaring. #INSen". Twitter.
  101. ^ Mike Braun. "My dad gave me my first shotgun when I was 10 years old and I still use it to this day. I am honored to accept the @NRA's endorsement and to work with them to fight Democrat attacks on Hoosiers' fundamental right to bear arms and defend their families. #INSen". Twitter.
  102. ^ Mike Braun. "Manufacturing is the backbone of Indiana's economy, & I'm honored to accept this endorsement from the leading advocate for Hoosier  manufacturers: @IMA1901. I look forward to working with IMA to keep Indiana manufacturing thriving & keep D.C. out of their way. #INSen  #IBackBraun". Twitter.
  103. ^ "NOM Endorses Candidates in Key Senate Midterm Contests". NOM Blog. October 17, 2018. Retrieved October 31, 2018.
  104. ^ "All tickets distributed for former President Barack Obama's Indiana rally". October 31, 2018.
  105. ^ Press, Associated. "Indiana Dems: Obama visiting Gary for Donnelly rally on Sunday".
  106. ^ Joe Donnelly. "Secretary Chuck Hagel has always known the importance of looking after our servicemembers & veterans. We worked closely together to pass the Jacob Sexton Military Suicide Prevention Act – my first bill in the Senate. It was an honor to have him here supporting our campaign". Twitter.
  107. ^ Joe Donnelly. "Thanks @BennetforCO for joining me on the road today to remind Hoosiers to vote early!". Twitter.
  108. ^ Joe Donnelly. "Very happy to have my friend @CoryBooker in Indy with me today. Starting the day right at Kountry Kitchen joined by ministers and @Andre4Congress talking about the importance of getting Hoosiers to the polls". Twitter.
  109. ^ Joe Donnelly. ".@ChrisCoonsforDE and I made 7 different stops across Northwest Indiana yesterday where we met hundreds of Hoosiers who were ready to vote early (or already had!). Make a plan to vote as soon as possible today!". Twitter.
  110. ^ Catherine Cortez Masto. "Great stopping by a Harrison County field office in Indiana to help ensure Hoosiers send @JoeforIndiana back to the Senate! Joe's fighting to protect our health care & ensure those with pre-existing conditions can access the care they need". Twitter.
  111. ^ Joe Donnelly. "Packed house at the USW rally in Chesterton tonight! Thanks to my friend @DickDurbin for joining us! Our @steelworkers know just how much is on the line this election". Twitter.
  112. ^ Tammy Duckworth. "Today I am in Indiana supporting my friend @JoeforIndiana who is in a tough reelection fight. Our first stop was Shapiro's Deli where I got the famous Reuben and talked with voters. We then stopped by the campaign headquarters for a canvass kickoff and some phone banking". Twitter.
  113. ^ "Kamala Harris makes fundraising pitch for Joe Donnelly". October 4, 2018.
  114. ^ Joe Donnelly. "It was wonderful to have my friend @DougJones in Indianapolis with me this morning. Doug is right -- make sure you're registered and make a plan to vote on November 6!". Twitter.
  115. ^ Joe Donnelly. "Thanks to my friend @amyklobuchar for coming to see all our volunteers in South Bend yesterday! We've got folks all over the state knocking on doors and talking to voters". Twitter.
  116. ^ Brian Schatz. "Today is a good day to send a few bucks, or more, to Joe Donnelly. He's good people". Twitter.
  117. ^ John Gregg. "A great read in @JGfortwayne about @JoeforIndiana working hard for all Hoosiers! 'The hired help' Connecting with farmers big part of Donnelly's re-election effort". Twitter.
  118. ^ "Thomas McDermott on Twitter".
  119. ^ "Victor Oladipo on Twitter".
  120. ^ "Kevin Rader on Twitter". Twitter.
  121. ^ "Amy Schumer on Twitter".
  122. ^ Siskind, Amy [@Amy_Siskind] (October 8, 2018). "END Mitch McConnell's reign of terror.  Donate/volunteer for these close senate races: Jacky Rosen, NV Phil Bredesen, TN Claire McCaskill, MO Bill Nelson, FL Joe Donnelly, IN Heidi Heitkamp, ND Beto O'Rourke, TX Kyrsten Sinema, AZ Tammy Baldwin, WI" (Tweet). Retrieved October 20, 2018 – via Twitter.
  123. ^ a b Joe Donnelly. "Thanks Derrick Mayes for your support! Hoosiers, please make your plan to vote!". Twitter.
  124. ^ "Retiree Group Endorses Sen. Joe Donnelly for U.S. Senate - Retired Americans". Retired Americans. October 9, 2018.
  125. ^ "Our Candidates - CWA Political". CWA Political.
  126. ^ "Candidates We Endorse and Support - NCPSSM". ncpssm.org.
  127. ^ "NEA Fund - Recommended Candidates". neafund.org.
  128. ^ "Indiana – Official UAW Endorsements". uawendorsements.org. United Automobile Workers.
  129. ^ Joe Donnelly. ""America needs more senators like Joe Donnelly. Indiana needs to re-elect him." Thank you, @JGfortwayne!". Twitter.
  130. ^ "Indiana chamber won't endorse GOP businessman for Senate". September 1, 2018.
  131. ^ "IndyStar Editorial Board: Why Joe Donnelly deserves re-election to U.S. Senate". Indianapolis Star. November 4, 2018. Retrieved November 5, 2018.
  132. ^ "IndyStar Editorial Board: Why Mike Braun is right choice for U.S. Senate". Indianapolis Star. November 4, 2018. Retrieved November 5, 2018.
  133. ^ "Indiana Election Results". CNN. November 9, 2018.
  134. ^ Lange, Kaitlin. "Why Indiana Democrats are flailing and how they might find a road back". Indianapolis Star. Retrieved November 13, 2018.
  135. ^ "Indiana Election Reults". https://www.in.gov/sos/elections/index.htm. External link in |website= (help)

External links

Official campaign websites

This page was last edited on 15 June 2019, at 17:23
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