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2020 United States presidential election in Indiana

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

2020 United States presidential election in Indiana

← 2016 November 3, 2020 2024 →
Turnout65%
 
Donald Trump official portrait (cropped).jpg
Joe Biden 2013.jpg
Nominee Donald Trump Joe Biden
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Florida Delaware
Running mate Mike Pence Kamala Harris
Electoral vote 11 0
Popular vote 1,729,519 1,242,416
Percentage 57.02% 40.96%

Indiana Presidential Election Results 2020.svg
County results

President before election

Donald Trump
Republican

Elected President

Joe Biden
Democratic

The 2020 United States presidential election in Indiana was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[2] Indiana voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Indiana has 11 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[3]

Indiana was the home state of Pence, who served as Governor of Indiana from 2013 to 2017. Pence retained a 59% approval among voters in his home state.[4]

On the day of the election, Trump won Indiana by 57.1% to Biden's 41%, a slight improvement over his 56.47% share of the vote in 2016, albeit by a reduced margin of 16% compared with 19% that year. This election marked the first time since 1952 and only the third time since 1888 that Vigo County, a significant bellwether county, voted for the losing candidate in a presidential election. Biden subsequently became the first presidential nominee of either party since 1952, and the first Democrat since 1884, to win without carrying Vigo County.[5] He also flipped Tippecanoe County, home to Lafayette, from Republican to Democratic. This is also the first election since 1992 in which Indiana voted to the right of Kansas.

Notably, Biden reduced the Republican margin in Hamilton County, a suburban county in the Indianapolis metro that is the state's fourth most populous county.[6] Hamilton County has voted for the Republican Party in every election since its founding except for 1912.[7] Hamilton broke 60%-38% for McCain in 2008, when Obama won Indiana. Romney won Hamilton County 66%-32% in 2012 and Trump won it 56%-37% in 2016, nearly identical to his statewide margin. In this election, Trump narrowly won Hamilton County, 52%-45%, a margin that is to the left of the statewide result. Biden's 45% vote share in Hamilton County is higher than that of even LBJ in his nationwide landslide in 1964 and higher than that of Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1936.[8] Biden's vote share in Hamilton is only equaled by Roosevelt's 44.85% share in his 1932 landslide.

Primary elections

The primary elections were held on June 2, 2020.

Republican primary

Donald Trump won the Republican primary, and thus received all of the state's 58 delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention.[9]

Democratic primary

2020 Indiana Democratic presidential primary[10]
Candidate Votes % Delegates[11]
Joe Biden 380,836 76.5% 81
Bernie Sanders (suspended) 67,688 13.6% 1
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn) 17,957 3.6%
Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn) 14,344 2.9%
Michael Bloomberg (withdrawn) 4,783 1.0%
Andrew Yang (withdrawn) 4,426 0.9%
Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn) 3,860 0.8%
Tulsi Gabbard (withdrawn) 2,657 0.5%
Tom Steyer (withdrawn) 1,376 0.3%
Total 497,927 100% 82

Libertarian nominee

The 2020 Libertarian National Convention was held on May 22–24, 2020, selecting Jo Jorgensen, Psychology Senior Lecturer at Clemson University, as their presidential nominee.

Green primary

The Green primary was held on May 1–31, 2020, with mail-in ballots being post marked no later than June 1, 2020, and results being published by June 14, 2020.[12]

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[13] Likely R October 6, 2020
Inside Elections[14] Safe R October 6, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[15] Likely R October 6, 2020
Politico[16] Safe R October 6, 2020
RCP[17] Lean R October 6, 2020
Niskanen[18] Safe R October 6, 2020
CNN[19] Safe R October 6, 2020
The Economist[20] Safe R October 6, 2020
CBS News[21] Likely R October 6, 2020
270towin[22] Safe R October 6, 2020
ABC News[23] Safe R October 6, 2020
NPR[24] Likely R October 6, 2020
NBC News[25] Likely R October 6, 2020
538[26] Safe R October 6, 2020

Polling

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Donald
Trump

Republican
Other/
Undecided
[a]
Margin
FiveThirtyEight until November 2, 2020 November 3, 2020 42.0% 52.9% 5.1% Trump +10.8

Polls

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump

Republican
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Jo
Jorgensen

Libertarian
Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 2,729 (LV) ± 2.5% 54%[c] 44%
Swayable Oct 27 – Nov 1, 2020 264 (LV) ± 7.8% 55% 43% 2%
Morning Consult Oct 22–31, 2020 1,147 (LV) ± 3% 53% 42%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 1–28, 2020 4,734 (LV) 55% 43%
Swayable Oct 23–26, 2020 301 (LV) ± 7.4% 53% 42% 5%
Ragnar Research (R) Oct 18–21, 2020 529 (LV) ± 4% 48% 40% 5% 7%
SurveyUSA/Election Twitter Oct 10–13, 2020 527 (LV) ± 5.2% 49% 42% 3% 6%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Sep 1–30, 2020 2,367 (LV) 53% 45%
Change Research/IndyPolitics Sep 3–7, 2020 1,033 (LV) ± 3.1% 53% 39% 5% 3%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Aug 1–31, 2020 1,672 (LV) 55% 43%
Morning Consult Jul 24 – Aug 2, 2020[d] 900 (LV) ± 3.5% 55% 38%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jul 1–31, 2020 2,175 (LV) 56% 43%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jun 8–30, 2020 929 (LV) 57% 40%
Victoria Research/Tallian for Attorney General[1][A] May 21–23, 2020 894 (LV) ± 3.3% 49% 39%
Indy Politics/Change Research Apr 10–13, 2020 1,021 (LV) ± 3.1% 52% 39% 5% 3%
Former candidates

Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Elizabeth
Warren (D)
Undecided
Zogby Analytics Aug 17–23, 2017 603 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 39% 17%

Results

Statewide results

2020 United States presidential election in Indiana[27]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Donald Trump
Mike Pence
1,729,519 57.02% +0.55%
Democratic Joseph R. Biden Jr.
Kamala D. Harris
1,242,416 40.96% +3.5%
Libertarian Jo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen
59,232 1.95% -2.9%
Green Howie Hawkins (write-in)
Angela Walker (write-in)
988 0.03% -0.3%
American Solidarity Brian T. Carroll (write-in)
Amar Patel (write-in)
893 0.03% N/A
Write-in 70 0.00% +0.0%
Total votes 3,033,118 100.0%

Results by county

Vote breakdown by county[27]
Trump/Pence
Republican
Biden/Harris
Democratic
Jorgensen/Cohen
Libertarian
Write-ins Total
County Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes
Adams 10,686 75.21% 3,236 22.77% 287 2.02% 0 0.00% 14,209
Allen 92,083 54.56% 73,189 43.29% 3,728 2.20% 82 0.05% 169,082
Bartholomew 22,410 61.85% 12,934 35.69% 872 2.41% 19 0.07% 36,235
Benton 3,007 73.09% 1,009 24.53% 92 2.24% 6 0.15% 4,114
Blackford 3,841 71.78% 1,376 25.71% 132 2.47% 2 0.04% 5,351
Boone 22,351 58.02% 15,244 39.57% 905 2.40% 20 0.05% 38,520
Brown 5,777 64.32% 3,036 33.80% 168 1.87% 0 0.00% 8,981
Carroll 7,086 74.63% 2,224 23.42% 185 1.95% 0 0.00% 9,495
Cass 10,552 69.43% 4,304 28.32% 333 2.19% 9 0.06% 15,198
Clark 33,668 58.18% 23,093 39.91% 1,108 1.91% 0 0.00% 57,869
Clay 9,499 77.44% 2,552 20.80% 208 1.70% 8 0.07% 12,267
Clinton 9,334 72.08% 3,361 25.60% 246 1.90% 8 0.06% 12,949
Crawford 3,483 70.45% 1,355 27.41% 106 2.14% 0 0.00% 4,944
Daviess 9,576 80.11% 2,169 18.14% 204 1.71% 5 0.04% 11,954
Dearborn 19,528 76.93% 5,446 21.46% 387 1.52% 22 0.09% 25,383
Decatur 9,575 77.93% 2,439 19.85% 273 2.22% 0 0.00% 12,287
Dekalb 14,237 72.53% 4,966 25.30% 425 2.17% 0 0.00% 19,628
Delaware 26,827 55.67% 20,474 42.49% 890 1.85% 0 0.00% 48,191
Dubois 15,033 69.05% 6,292 28.90% 432 1.98% 13 0.06% 21,770
Elkhart 46,972 63.15% 26,108 35.10% 1,241 1.67% 66 0.11% 74,387
Fayette 7,755 76.51% 2,237 22.07% 144 1.42% 0 0.00% 10,136
Floyd 23,400 55.98% 17,511 41.89% 850 2.03% 41 0.10% 41,802
Fountain 6,154 77.06% 1,629 20.40% 200 2.50% 3 0.04% 7,986
Franklin 9,691 80.76% 2,137 17.81% 169 1.41% 3 0.03% 12,000
Fulton 6,694 73.18% 2,280 24.93% 170 1.86% 3 0.03% 9,147
Gibson 11,817 73.12% 4,023 24.89% 321 1.99% 0 0.00% 16,161
Grant 18,543 68.28% 8,015 29.51% 584 2.15% 17 0.06% 27,159
Greene 11,103 75.10% 3,389 22.92% 290 1.96% 2 0.01% 14,784
Hamilton 101,587 52.36% 88,390 45.56% 3,894 2.01% 128 0.07% 193,999
Hancock 28,996 67.57% 12,895 30.05% 1,016 2.37% 4 0.01% 42,911
Harrison 14,565 71.98% 5,343 26.40% 323 1.60% 5 0.02% 20,236
Hendricks 53,802 60.79% 32,604 36.84% 2,052 2.32% 47 0.05% 88,505
Henry 15,043 71.53% 5,544 26.36% 434 2.06% 9 0.04% 21,030
Howard 26,449 65.10% 13,303 32.74% 858 2.11% 20 0.05% 40,630
Huntington 13,147 73.74% 4,255 23.87% 408 2.29% 19 0.11% 17,829
Jackson 14,555 75.66% 4,302 22.36% 381 1.98% 0 0.00% 19,238
Jasper 11,383 73.56% 3,798 24.54% 288 1.86% 6 0.04% 15,475
Jay 6,361 75.18% 1,926 22.76% 169 2.00% 5 0.06% 8,461
Jefferson 9,663 65.75% 4,731 32.19% 296 2.01% 7 0.05% 14,697
Jennings 9,490 77.46% 2,523 20.59% 238 1.94% 0 0.00% 12,251
Johnson 51,219 65.99% 24,736 31.87% 1,618 2.08% 45 0.06% 77,618
Knox 11,655 72.79% 4,067 25.40% 282 1.76% 7 0.04% 16,011
Kosciusko 26,499 74.05% 8,364 22.74% 903 2.52% 21 0.06% 35,787
Lagrange 8,110 76.27% 2,355 22.15% 168 1.58% 0 0.00% 10,633
Lake 91,760 41.72% 124,870 56.77% 3,212 1.46% 114 0.05% 219,956
LaPorte 25,997 52.63% 22,427 45.41% 968 1.96% 0 0.00% 49,392
Lawrence 15,601 74.20% 4,961 23.60% 463 2.20% 0 0.00% 21,025
Madison 31,215 60.26% 19,524 37.69% 1,026 1.98% 28 0.05% 51,803
Marion 134,175 34.44% 247,772 63.59% 7,228 1.48% 444 0.09% 489,619
Marshall 13,844 69.47% 5,712 28.66% 362 1.82% 9 0.05% 19,927
Martin 4,029 78.32% 1,011 19.65% 104 2.02% 0 0.00% 5,144
Miami 10,925 75.49% 3,235 22.35% 306 2.11% 7 0.05% 14,473
Monroe 22,071 34.95% 39,861 63.12% 1,105 1.75% 114 0.18% 63,151
Montgomery 12,659 73.61% 4,213 24.50% 326 1.90% 0 0.00% 17,198
Morgan 27,512 76.09% 7,781 21.52% 862 2.38% 4 0.01% 36,159
Newton 4,942 74.99% 1,509 22.90% 140 2.12% 0 0.00% 6,590
Noble 14,195 73.97% 4,660 24.28% 335 1.75% 0 0.00% 19,190
Ohio 2,392 75.60% 750 23.70% 22 0.70% 0 0.00% 3,164
Orange 6,432 72.83% 2,224 25.18% 174 1.97% 2 0.02% 8,832
Owen 7,286 73.57% 2,420 24.43% 198 2.00% 0 0.00% 9,904
Parke 5,400 77.00% 1,503 21.43% 110 1.57% 0 0.00% 7,013
Perry 5,345 61.28% 3,203 36.72% 174 1.99% 0 0.00% 8,722
Pike 4,692 75.43% 1,415 22.75% 113 1.82% 0 0.00% 6,220
Porter 45,008 52.03% 39,746 45.94% 1,656 1.91% 99 0.11% 86,509
Posey 9,206 69.55% 3,811 28.79% 214 1.62% 5 0.04% 13,236
Pulaski 4,246 73.13% 1,463 25.20% 97 1.67% 0 0.00% 5,806
Putnam 12,278 73.98% 3,946 23.78% 371 2.24% 2 0.01% 16,597
Randolph 8,312 75.09% 2,513 22.70% 243 2.20% 2 0.02% 11,070
Ripley 11,261 78.91% 2,774 19.44% 229 1.60% 7 0.05% 14,271
Rush 6,035 76.08% 1,754 22.11% 143 1.80% 0 0.00% 7,932
Scott 7,331 72.11% 2,701 26.57% 134 1.32% 1 0.01% 10,167
Shelby 14,568 72.87% 5,023 25.13% 400 2.00% 0 0.00% 19,991
Spencer 7,357 68.32% 3,213 29.84% 199 1.85% 0 0.00% 10,769
St. Joseph 53,164 46.17% 59,896 52.02% 1,925 1.67% 153 0.13% 115,138
Starke 7,466 72.56% 2,650 25.75% 174 1.69% 0 0.00% 10,290
Steuben 11,327 70.08% 4,513 27.92% 312 1.93% 10 0.06% 16,162
Sullivan 6,691 74.39% 2,153 23.94% 150 1.67% 0 0.00% 8,994
Switzerland 3,133 75.42% 964 23.21% 55 1.32% 2 0.05% 4,154
Tippecanoe 34,581 48.40% 35,017 49.01% 1,832 2.56% 18 0.03% 71,448
Tipton 6,110 75.28% 1,834 22.60% 171 2.11% 1 0.01% 8,116
Union 2,688 77.17% 736 21.13% 59 1.69% 0 0.00% 3,483
Vanderburgh 41,844 53.88% 34,415 44.31% 1,322 1.70% 81 0.10% 77,662
Vermillion 5,184 69.30% 2,145 28.67% 151 2.02% 1 0.01% 7,481
Vigo 24,545 56.30% 18,123 41.57% 900 2.06% 26 0.06% 43,594
Wabash 10,762 73.85% 3,494 23.98% 317 2.18% 0 0.00% 14,573
Warren 3,401 76.05% 974 21.78% 96 2.15% 1 0.02% 4,472
Warrick 21,326 63.04% 11,923 35.24% 557 1.65% 23 0.07% 33,829
Washington 9,114 75.08% 2,784 22.93% 233 1.92% 8 0.07% 12,139
Wayne 17,567 63.47% 9,524 34.41% 571 2.06% 17 0.06% 27,679
Wells 10,855 77.26% 2,928 20.84% 261 1.86% 6 0.04% 14,050
White 7,957 71.26% 3,032 27.15% 170 1.52% 7 0.06% 11,166
Whitley 12,862 73.26% 4,234 24.12% 453 2.58% 7 0.04% 17,556
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

See also

Notes

  1. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. ^ a b Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  4. ^ Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
Partisan clients
  1. ^ This poll is sponsored by Karen Tallian's campaign (D)

References

  1. ^ "Indiana Election Results 2020". The New York Times. Retrieved November 5, 2020.
  2. ^ Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  3. ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  4. ^ "Indiana Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 9, 2020.
  5. ^ "County winners, 1836-2016". Google Docs. Retrieved November 15, 2020.
  6. ^ https://www.indiana-demographics.com/counties_by_population
  7. ^ "County winners, 1836-2016". Google Docs. Retrieved November 15, 2020.
  8. ^ "County winners, 1836-2016". Google Docs. Retrieved November 15, 2020.
  9. ^ "Indiana Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved June 3, 2020.
  10. ^ "Past Election Results". Indiana Secretary of State. Retrieved November 2, 2020.
  11. ^ "Delegate Tracker". interactives.ap.org. Associated Press. Retrieved June 3, 2020.
  12. ^ "2020 Presidential Primary Voting". Indiana Green Party. Retrieved April 28, 2020.
  13. ^ "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  14. ^ "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  15. ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  16. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
  17. ^ "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
  18. ^ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.
  19. ^ David Chalian; Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
  20. ^ "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
  21. ^ "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
  22. ^ "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
  23. ^ "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
  24. ^ "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
  25. ^ "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
  26. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
  27. ^ a b "Presidential Electors for US President & VP". Indiana Secretary of State. December 3, 2020. Retrieved December 13, 2020.

Further reading

External links

This page was last edited on 1 March 2021, at 11:40
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