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2018 Pennsylvania's 18th congressional district special election

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

2018 Pennsylvania's 18th congressional district special election

← 2016 March 13, 2018 November 2018 →

Pennsylvania's 18th congressional district
 
Conor Lamb.jpg
Talking Politics in Western PA - Rep. Rick Saccone (cropped).jpg
Nominee Conor Lamb Rick Saccone
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 114,102 113,347
Percentage 49.9% 49.5%

Pennsylvania's 18th congressional district special election results, 2018.svg

U.S. Representative before election

Tim Murphy
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

Conor Lamb
Democratic

A special election for Pennsylvania's 18th congressional district was held on March 13, 2018, following the resignation of Republican Representative Tim Murphy.[1] Murphy, who held the seat since January 3, 2003, declared his intent to resign on October 5, 2017, and vacated his seat on October 21 that year. Democrat Conor Lamb defeated Republican Rick Saccone 49.9% to 49.5%. Saccone conceded the race eight days after the election.[2]

Background

Eight-term incumbent Republican U.S. Representative Tim Murphy was involved in a sex scandal consisting of his allegedly having extramarital sexual relations with a woman and then asking her to have an abortion. This was particularly damaging because Murphy identifies as a pro-life politician. Murphy subsequently announced that he was resigning and that he would leave office on October 21.[3][4]

Primary elections were not held in the race. Instead, nominees were chosen by each party. The Republican Party held a special convention on November 11, 2017, to choose a nominee through a conferee process involving 215 local Republican activists.[5][6] The Democratic Party held their nominating convention on November 19, 2017.[7] The Libertarian Party of Allegheny County and the Libertarian Party of Washington County nominated a candidate via party caucus.[8]

Pennsylvania's 18th Congressional District is located in Western Pennsylvania and borders the state of West Virginia. It includes portions of Greene, Washington, Allegheny and Westmoreland counties.[9] The district has a Cook PVI score of R+11.[10] This was the last election for Pennsylvania's 18th congressional district held under its configuration made in 2011 by the Pennsylvania Legislature as new districts have been drawn in accordance with the ruling of the state supreme court in League of Women Voters v. Commonwealth of Pennsylvania and will be in effect for the main 2018 congressional elections in November.[11][12][13] The bulk of the old 18th will become the 14th District.

Republican conferee meeting

Candidates

Declared

Failed to qualify

  • George Karpacs, Pennsylvania College Access Program board member[17]

Withdrew

Results

Republican conferree meeting[20][21]
Candidate First ballot Pct. Second ballot Pct.
Rick Saccone 74 34.4% 123 57.5%
Guy Reschenthaler 75 34.9% 91 42.5%
Kim Ward 66 30.7% Eliminated

Democratic convention

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Results

Democratic convention[28][29][30][31]
Candidate First ballot Pct. Second ballot Pct.
Conor Lamb 225 40.6% 319 58.5%
Gina Cerilli 153 27.6% 152 27.9%
Pam Iovino 90 16.2% 74 13.6%
Mike Crossey 47 8.5% Eliminated
Rueben Brock 21 3.8% Eliminated
Bob Solomon 18 3.2% Eliminated
Keith Seewald 0 0.0% Eliminated

Libertarian Party nomination

The Libertarian candidate was Pittsburgh attorney Drew Gray Miller.

General election

Candidates

Official Sample Ballot

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[35] Toss-Up February 27, 2018
Inside Elections/Rothenberg Political Report[36] Toss-Up February 28, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[37] Toss-Up March 8, 2018

Campaign

The major party candidates were Republican Rick Saccone and Democrat Conor Lamb, in a district that Donald Trump carried by almost 20 points in the 2016 presidential election.[38] The special election attracted national attention[39] and was seen by many political analysts and commentators as a bellwether on the popularity of Donald Trump, Trump's tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, and the Republican Party.[40][39][41][42][43][44] Saccone said the special election was a referendum on Trump's presidency and called himself "Trump before Trump was Trump".[45][46][47] Prominent Republicans including Donald Trump (twice), Donald Trump Jr., Ivanka Trump, and Mike Pence came to the state to campaign for Saccone.[48] The district was contested by a third-party candidate (Libertarian Drew Gray Miller) for the first time since 1996.[49]

Campaign funding

Republicans and aligned groups spent more than twice as much as Democrats and aligned groups on the special election.[50] Although Lamb's campaign fund raised more than Saccone's campaign fund, Saccone benefited from far more spending by outside groups than Lamb.[50]

The Republican Party and outside pro-Republican "independent expenditure" groups spent almost $10.7 million to support Saccone or oppose Lamb in the campaign, while $2.6 million in independent expenditures was spent in support of Lamb.[51] Fourteen outside groups (seven Republican, seven Democrat) comprised over 95% of the spending. For the Republican side, the major groups spending money on Saccone's behalf were Paul Ryan's Congressional Leadership Fund, the National Republican Congressional Committee, the Republican National Committee, and the pro-Trump groups America First Action and 45Committee. For the Democratic side, the major groups spending money on Lamb's behalf were the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, Patriot Majority PAC, and the VoteVets.org Action Fund.[51]

Debates

KDKA-TV hosted the first debate on February 19, 2018.[52] WTAE-TV hosted the second and final debate on March 3, 2018, at 7 PM EST. The debate was hosted live by WTAE-TV along with the League of Women Voters of Greater Pittsburgh.[53][54]

Host
network
Date Link(s) Participants
Conor
Lamb (D)
Drew Gray
Miller (L)
Rick
Saccone (R)
WTAE-TV March 3, 2018 [55] Invited Invited
KDKA-TV February 19, 2018 [56][57][58] Invited Invited

Endorsements

Rick Saccone (R)
Federal politicians
Individuals
Unions
Organizations
Newspapers
Conor Lamb (D)
Federal politicians
Local and statewide politicians
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations
Newspapers and news websites
Drew Gray Miller (L)
Politicians

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Rick
Saccone (R)
Conor
Lamb (D)
Other Undecided
Monmouth University March 8–11, 2018 372 ± 5.1% 45% 51% 1% 3%
RABA Research March 6–8, 2018 707 ± 3.7% 44% 48% 9%
Gravis Marketing March 1–5, 2018 911 ± 3.3% 45% 42% 13%
Emerson College March 1–3, 2018 474 ± 4.8% 45% 48% 7%
Gravis Marketing February 13–15, 2018 602 ± 4.2% 45% 40% 15%
Monmouth University February 12–14, 2018 320 ± 5.5% 49% 46% 1% 4%
DFM Research (D) January 18–19, 2018 384 ± 5.0% 41% 38% 21%
Gravis Marketing January 3–5, 2018 513 ± 4.3% 46% 34% 20%

Results

Pennsylvania's 18th congressional district special election, 2018[112]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Democratic Conor Lamb 114,102 49.86% +49.86%
Republican Rick Saccone 113,347 49.53% -50.47%
Libertarian Drew Gray Miller 1,381 0.60% +0.60%
Total votes 228,830 100.00%
Plurality 755 0.33% -99.67%
Democratic gain from Republican Swing

Lamb declared victory just after midnight on March 14.[113] With all precincts reporting, Lamb led Saccone by 627 votes, a margin of 0.2 percent. NBC News declared Lamb the apparent winner early on the morning of March 14, based on the remaining absentee ballots from Washington County.[114] The New York Times followed suit later that afternoon.[38] A few other outlets declared Lamb the winner in what has been described as "a major upset",[115][116] but others withheld judgment, citing the closeness of the race and the likelihood of a recount.[117] Saccone conceded the race to Lamb on March 21, the day that the last votes were counted.[118] Allegheny County certified its election results on April 2, making Conor Lamb's victory official.[119]

Lamb's victory came primarily on the strength of winning the Allegheny County portion of the district by almost 15,400 votes. He lost the rest of the district by 14,700 votes.[120]

Results by county

Vote breakdown by county[119]
Conor Lamb
Democrat
Rick Saccone
Republican
Drew Gray Miller
Libertarian
Margin Total
County Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes
Allegheny 58,874 57.25% 43,398 42.24% 526 0.51% 15,476 15.01% 102,798
Greene 2,022 41.56% 2,800 57.56% 43 0.88% 778 16.00% 4,865
Washington 22,757 46.16% 26,198 53.14% 344 0.70% 3,441 6.98% 49,299
Westmoreland 30,449 42.37% 40,951 56.98% 468 0.65% 10,502 14.61% 71,868

See also

External links

References

  1. ^ "Governor Wolf Sets Special Election for PA's 18th Congressional District". Governor of Pennsylvania Newsroom. October 23, 2017.
  2. ^ https://nypost.com/2018/03/21/rick-saccone-finally-concedes-pennsylvania-special-election/
  3. ^ Deppen, Colin (October 6, 2017). "How the special election for Rep. Tim Murphy's seat will work — and which party might win". The Incline. Retrieved October 14, 2017.
  4. ^ Herring, An-Li (October 9, 2017). "Tim Murphy's Open Congressional Seat Is Already Highly Contested". 90.5 WESA. Retrieved October 14, 2017.
  5. ^ "PA GOP Picks Conferees for PA-18 Special Election". Retrieved November 14, 2017.
  6. ^ Potter, Chris [@CPotterPgh] (November 11, 2017). "After second round of voting, GOP has its nominee for the PA-18 special election: state Rep. Rick Saccone. Dems recommend their champion to state leaders next Sunday" (Tweet). Retrieved November 14, 2017 – via Twitter.
  7. ^ "PA-18 Special Election". Pennsylvania Democratic Party. Retrieved November 14, 2017.
  8. ^ "Libertarian Party Nominates Candidate for 18th Congressional District Special Election". Libertarian Party of Pennsylvania. Retrieved January 28, 2018.
  9. ^ "File:Pennsylvania December 2011 Redistricting Map.jpg - Ballotpedia". Retrieved November 14, 2017.
  10. ^ Wasserman, David (October 5, 2017). "Murphy Resignation Creates PA-18 Special Election Headache for GOP". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved October 14, 2017.
  11. ^ "League of Women Voters v. Commonwealth of Pennsylvania". Supreme Court of Pennsylvania. Retrieved March 13, 2018.
  12. ^ Bridget Bowman, The Fight for a Disappearing District in Pennsylvania, Roll Call (March 13, 2018).
  13. ^ Jonathan Martin (March 8, 2018). "Why G.O.P. Is Spending Millions on a Soon-to-Vanish Seat in Trump Country". The New York Times.
  14. ^ a b c d "Special election date set for Tim Murphy's congressional seat". Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Retrieved November 5, 2017.
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  16. ^ "State Sen. Kim Ward announces run as Congressman Murphy bows out". City & State PA. October 5, 2017. Retrieved November 5, 2017.
  17. ^ Venteicher, Wes. "GOP picks Elizabeth Twp. Rep. Rick Saccone to fill disgraced ex-congressman Murphy's seat". TribLIVE.com. Retrieved November 14, 2017. ...candidate George Karpacs didn't show up to the meeting
  18. ^ Venteicher, Wes. "Pennsylvania legislator Jason Ortitay to run for Congressman Tim Murphy's seat". TribLIVE.com. Retrieved November 5, 2017.
  19. ^ @CPotterPgh (November 11, 2017). "Here at the GOP conferee process for selecting their nominee in the PA-18 special. State Rep. Jason Ortitay withdrew prior to voting. No candidate achieved majority on first ballot, so state Sen. Kim Ward is dropped for second round, leaving Guy Reschenthaler and Rick Saccone" (Tweet). Retrieved November 11, 2017 – via Twitter.
  20. ^ Potter, Chris [@CPotterPgh] (November 11, 2017). "For those of you with money in office pools, Reschenthaler scored 75 votes in the first round, Saccone 74, and Ward 66. Candidates must reach absolute majority to become party's nominee" (Tweet). Retrieved November 12, 2017 – via Twitter.
  21. ^ Potter, Chris [@CPotterPgh] (November 11, 2017). "Saccone won by a count of 123-91. Reschenthaler asking for conferees to give Saccone their unanimous backing" (Tweet). Retrieved November 12, 2017 – via Twitter.
  22. ^ Santoni, Matthew. "Cecil counselor, professor Rueben Brock joins crowd seeking Dems' nod for Congressman Tim Murphy's seat". TribLIVE.com. Retrieved November 5, 2017.
  23. ^ Santoni, Matthew. "Westmoreland Commissioner Gina Cerilli to seek Tim Murphy's seat in Congress". TribLIVE.com. Retrieved November 5, 2017.
  24. ^ "Democrat Mike Crossey Announces Congressional Run Against Tim Murphy". Retrieved November 5, 2017.
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  29. ^ @PADems (November 19, 2017). "Results from round one of voting: Lamb: 225, Cerilli: 153, Iovino: 90, Crossey: 47, Brock: 21, Solomon: 18, Seewald: 0. Lamb, Cerilli, and Iovino advance to round two" (Tweet). Retrieved November 20, 2017 – via Twitter.
  30. ^ @PADems (November 19, 2017). "Results from round two: 545 total votes cast this round. Iovino: 74, Cerilli: 152, Lamb: 319" (Tweet). Retrieved November 20, 2017 – via Twitter.
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  35. ^ "2018 House Race ratings | The Cook Political Report". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved December 18, 2017.
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  39. ^ a b "Trump's tariff threat may be timed for Pennsylvania U.S. House race". Reuters. March 6, 2018. Retrieved March 12, 2018.
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  41. ^ "Republican super PACs surge into Pennsylvania special election". The Washington Post PowerPost blog. January 4, 2018.
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  45. ^ Alex Seitz-Wald (January 18, 2018). "Trump jumps into midterms in race to replace Republican who quit in scandal". NBC News.
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  49. ^ "Five freshman campaign to become congressional sophomores". Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. September 29, 1996. Retrieved March 14, 2018.
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  52. ^ "Saccone, Lamb Meet In First 18th Congressional District Special Election Debate". February 19, 2018. Retrieved February 20, 2018.
  53. ^ WTAE Editorial: The Pennsylvania 18th District debate, retrieved February 25, 2018
  54. ^ "WTAE to broadcast Pennsylvania's 18th District Congressional debate Saturday". WTAE. February 26, 2018. Retrieved March 2, 2018.
  55. ^ "REPLAY: Pennsylvania's 18th Congressional District Debate". WTAE. March 4, 2018. Retrieved March 4, 2018.
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  59. ^ Donald J. Trump [@realDonaldTrump] (January 18, 2018). "Will be going to Pennsylvania today in order to give my total support to RICK SACCONE, running for Congress in a Special Election (March 13). Rick is a great guy. We need more Republicans to continue our already successful agenda!" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  60. ^ Bradshaw, Gideon (January 24, 2018). "Trump, Pence throw weight behind Saccone in 18th District race". Observer-Reporter.
  61. ^ Lou Barletta [@loubarletta] (January 11, 2018). "Rick Saccone is a veteran, diplomat, international businessman, and elected leader. He's running for Congress to fight for the America First agenda. We need leaders like Rick in Congress. @Saccone4PA18" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  62. ^ Venteicher, Wes (January 24, 2018). "Former UN Ambassador John Bolton endorses Rick Saccone for Congress". Pittsburgh Tribune-Review.
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  72. ^ Resnick, Gideon (February 8, 2018). "Joe Biden Will Campaign for Conor Lamb in Tight Pennsylvania Race". The Daily Beast.
  73. ^ "PA-18: Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. (D) Helps Conor Lamb (D) Pull Off Another Special Election Upset Victory". Daily Kos. March 3, 2018.
  74. ^ Jones sent out an email to supporters soliciting donations to Lamb.
  75. ^ "PA-18: Rep. Dwight Evans (D) Helps Conor Lamb (D) Pull Off A Doug Jones-Style Upset Victory". Daily Kos. December 26, 2017.
  76. ^ "PA-18: Rep. Joe Kennedy III (D. MA) Helps Conor Lamb (D) Keep The Democratic Wave Rolling". Daily Kos. January 18, 2018.
  77. ^ Seth Moulton [@SethMoulton] (November 30, 2017). "After serving as a Marine, Conor Lamb returned home to PA to work as an Assistant U.S. Attorney. He prosecuted drug dealers and violent offenders to fight the opioid epidemic. Now he's running for Congress, and I'm proud to endorse him. Learn more:" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  78. ^ Erdley, Debra (December 15, 2017). "Westmoreland Democrats hope to gain traction in 2018 midterm election". TribLIVE.com.
  79. ^ @JohnFetterman (December 18, 2017). "Just donated to @ConorLambPA for #PA18 and you should too.pic.twitter.com/XPpMFI1hqQ" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  80. ^ "PA-18: Attorney General Josh Shapiro (D) Helps Conor Lamb (D) Flip Disgraced Tim Murphy's (R) Seat". Daily Kos. December 27, 2017.
  81. ^ a b Beveridge, Scott (March 11, 2018). "UMWA president delivers fiery endorsement for Lamb in 18th District race". Observer-Reporter.
  82. ^ "PA-18: Gov. Tom Wolf (D) Helps Conor Lamb (D) Pull Off Another Special Election Upset Victory". Daily Kos. December 20, 2017.
  83. ^ "PA-18: Randy "Ironstache" Bryce (D. WI) Helps A Fellow Pro-Union Veteran Flip A Republican District". Daily Kos. February 11, 2018.
  84. ^ "PA-18: Jason Kander (D. MO) Helps A Fellow Veteran Pull Off A Big Upset Victory In A Trump District". Daily Kos. March 9, 2018.
  85. ^ "PA-18: Katie McGinty (D) Returns To Help Conor Lamb (D) Pull Off A Doug Jones-Style Victory". Daily Kos. December 28, 2017.
  86. ^ O'Malley, Martin (February 28, 2018). "Excited to back Conor Lamb for Congress in PA-18. His young energy and experience is what we need!" – via Facebook.
  87. ^ "Unions Key as Pennsylvania Special Election Nears". IBEW. Marine veteran and former Assistant U.S. Attorney Conor Lamb is the Democratic candidate for the seat and has been endorsed by the state AFL-CIO and the IBEW
  88. ^ "NEA Fund - Recommended Candidates". www.neafund.org.
  89. ^ Hamilton, William; Molinero, Joseph; O'Neill, Tim; Grace, Dan; Baptiste, Robert (January 13, 2018). "Pennsylvania Conference of Teamsters ENDORSES CONOR LAMB" (PDF). www.pacfteamsters.com/.
  90. ^ Richard Bloomingdale. "Pennsylvania AFL-CIO Endorses Conor Lamb for Congress". Pennsylvania State AFL-CIO. Retrieved December 22, 2017.
  91. ^ Duncan, Erin (January 22, 2018). "It's 2018: Now what? Federal advocacy in the second session of the 115th Congress" (PDF). www.psea.org.
  92. ^ a b c Myers, James (February 12, 2018). "Service Workers add their Powerful Voice to Rising Wave of Support for Conor Lamb". SEIU Healthcare Pennsylvania.
  93. ^ 32BJ SEIU [@32BJSEIU] (February 10, 2018). "We're proud to endorse @ConorLambPA today. We need him in Washington to fight for labor rights, good jobs, Social Security, Medicare & strong schools. #UnionStrong #PA18" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  94. ^ Catanese, Steve; Sessa, JoAnne (February 10, 2018). "PLAN TO WIN STRATEGY SESSION, WASHINGTON COUNTY". SEIU local 668.
  95. ^ Potter, Chris (January 12, 2018). "Trump visit to support Saccone shows high stakes of District 18 race". Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Republicans "see real trouble," said Tim Waters, the national political director for the United Steelworkers. The union is backing Mr. Saccone's rival, Democrat Conor Lamb.
  96. ^ "COMPAC Endorsements - UMWA". UMWA.
  97. ^ Avery, James (February 19, 2018). "Act to Matter Officially Endorses Conor Lamb in Pennsylvania special election". PRWeb.
  98. ^ "Retiree Group Endorses Conor Lamb for U.S. House - Retired Americans". Retired Americans. March 5, 2018.
  99. ^ "BLUE DOGS ANNOUNCE SECOND ROUND OF CANDIDATE ENDORSEMENTS" (PDF). bluedogdems.com. February 8, 2018.
  100. ^ Marans, Daniel (January 26, 2018). "DCCC Makes First Investment In Pennsylvania Democrat's Special Election Bid". The Huffington Post.
  101. ^ "End Citizens United Endorses Conor Lamb in PA-18 Special Election - End Citizens United". End Citizens United. January 17, 2018.
  102. ^ "Humane Society Legislative Fund endorses Conor Lamb for Congress". Humane Society Legislative Fund. February 22, 2018.
  103. ^ J Street [@jstreetdotorg] (February 6, 2018). "J Street is proud to endorse @ConorLambPA in next month's PA-18 special election" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  104. ^ "PA-18: Jason Kander's PAC Doubles Down To Pull Off Another Doug Jones-Style Victory". Daily Kos. February 20, 2018.
  105. ^ Richtman, Max (February 14, 2018). "National Committee Endorses Conor Lamb for House in PA -18 Special Election". NCPSSM.
  106. ^ "Raising Our Future PAC Endorses Conor Lamb In Pennsylvania's 18th District Special Election – Raising Our Future". www.raisingourfuture.org. March 6, 2018.
  107. ^ Jon Bauman [@JonBowzerBauman] (February 14, 2018). "I'm in PA-18 to endorse Conor Lamb on behalf of Social Security Works in the special election for Congress to be held 3/13. TURN YOUR ATTENTION HERE, EVERYBODY! IT'S THE NEXT BIG ONE!!!" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  108. ^ Conor Lamb. "2018 Steel City Stonewall Democrats Endorsement Questionnaire" (PDF). Steel City Stonewall Democrats. Retrieved February 27, 2018. I am grateful to have your support and endorsement in my current race for the PA-18 special election, and hope to have it going forward into the primary and general elections so that we can continue to work as allies in the fight for full equality.
  109. ^ VoteVets [@VoteVets] (December 6, 2017). "VoteVets PAC is today endorsing Marine veteran @ConorLambPA for Congress in Pennsylvania's 18th District. "Conor is someone who will always be thinking of those who need a voice, and how he can best represent them," said Jon Soltz, Iraq War vet and Chairman of VoteVets. #PApol" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  110. ^ Daily Kos Elections [@DKElections] (January 18, 2018). "Daily Kos is proud to endorse @ConorLambPA in the #PA18 special election, which has Republicans so worried that Donald Trump is coming to town today" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  111. ^ "EDITORIAL In 18th district election, Lamb is the best choice". Observer-Reporter. March 11, 2018.
  112. ^ "Allegheny County's District 18 special election results are finally official". The Incline. Retrieved April 3, 2018. Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)
  113. ^ Chamberlain, Samuel (March 14, 2018). "Democrat Lamb declares victory in Pa. special election determined too close to call". Fox News.
  114. ^ Kornacki, Steve [@SteveKornacki] (March 14, 2018). "We have the Washington numbers and NBC is calling Conor Lamb the apparent winner in PA-18" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  115. ^ Drum, Kevin (March 14, 2018). "Conor Lamb officially wins Pennsylvania election". Mother Jones.
  116. ^ "It's official: Democrat Conor Lamb wins Pennsylvania special election in major upset". Vox. Retrieved March 14, 2018.
  117. ^ Schneider, Elena (March 14, 2018). "Republicans prepare for recount in Pennsylvania special election". Politico. Retrieved March 14, 2018.
  118. ^ Marc Levy (March 21, 2018). "Republican Rick Saccone Concedes to Democrat Conor Lamb in Pennsylvania Race". NBC Philadelphia. Retrieved March 22, 2018.
  119. ^ a b Julian Routh (April 2, 2018). "Finally official: Conor Lamb certified winner of congressional seat". Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Retrieved April 3, 2018.
  120. ^ Election results from CNN
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