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2018 United States House of Representatives elections in Iowa

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

2018 United States House of Representatives elections in Iowa

← 2016 November 6, 2018 (2018-11-06) 2020 →

All 4 Iowa seats to the United States House of Representatives
  Majority party Minority party
 
Party Democratic Republican
Last election 1 3
Seats won 3 1
Seat change Increase 2 Decrease 2
Popular vote 664,676 612,338
Percentage 50.5% 46.5%
Swing Increase 6.05% Decrease 7.11%

     Democratic hold      Democratic gain
     Republican hold

The 2018 United States House of Representatives elections in Iowa were held on November 6, 2018, to elect the four U.S. representatives from the State of Iowa, one from each of the state's four congressional districts. The elections coincided with the gubernatorial election, as well as other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate, and various state and local elections. The state congressional delegation flipped from a 3–1 Republican majority to a 3–1 Democratic majority. The Democrats had last won the majority of Iowa's seats in the 2010 elections.

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Transcription

Overview

Statewide

Party Candidates Votes Seats
No. % No. +/– %
Democratic 4 664,676 50.48% 3 Increase2 75.00%
Republican 4 612,338 46.51% 1 Decrease2 25.00%
Libertarian 4 29,894 2.27% 0 Steady 0.00%
Independent 3 5,100 0.39% 0 Steady 0.00%
Legal Marijuana Now 1 2,015 0.15% 0 Steady 0.00%
Green 1 1,888 0.14% 0 Steady 0.00%
Write-in 732 0.06% 0 Steady 0.00%
Total 17 1,316,643 100.00% 4 Steady 100.00%
Popular vote
Democratic
50.48%
Republican
46.51%
Libertarian
2.27%
Other
0.74%
House seats
Democratic
75.00%
Republican
25.00%

By district

Results of the 2018 United States House of Representatives elections in Iowa by district:[1]

District Democratic Republican Others Total Result
Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes %
District 1 170,342 50.96% 153,442 45.91% 10,459 3.13% 334,243 100.0% Democratic gain
District 2 171,446 54.79% 133,287 42.60% 8,180 2.61% 312,913 100% Democratic hold
District 3 175,642 49.30% 167,933 47.14% 12,666 3.56% 356,241 100.0% Democratic gain
District 4 147,246 47.04% 157,676 50.37% 8,123 2.59% 313,045 100.0% Republican hold
Total 664,676 50.49% 612,338 46.51% 39,428 3.00% 1,316,442 100.0%

District 1

2018 Iowa's 1st congressional district election

← 2016
2020 →
 
Nominee Abby Finkenauer Rod Blum
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 170,342 153,442
Percentage 51.0% 45.9%

County results
Finkenauer:      50–60%
Blum:      40-50%      50–60%

U.S. Representative before election

Rod Blum
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

Abby Finkenauer
Democratic

Incumbent Republican Rod Blum, who had represented the district since 2015, ran for re-election. He was re-elected with 54% of the vote in 2016. The district had a PVI of D+1.

The 1st district went for Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential election with a 49% to 45% margin, after voting for Barack Obama with a 56% to 43% margin in 2012.[2]

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Results

2018 Iowa's 1st congressional district Republican primary results by county:
Map legend
  •   Blum—100%
  •   Blum—≥90%
Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Rod Blum (incumbent) 14,737 98.9
Republican Write-ins 167 1.1
Total votes 14,904 100.0

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee
Eliminated in primary
  • Thomas Heckroth, former staffer for United States Senator Tom Harkin[4][5]
  • George Ramsey III, former military recruiter[5]
  • Courtney Rowe, engineer and Bernie Sanders delegate at the 2016 state convention[6]
Declined

Endorsements

Abby Finkenauer
State legislators
Individuals
Thomas Heckroth
State legislators
Individuals
Courtney Rowe
Organizations

Results

2018 Iowa's 1st congressional district Democratic primary results by county:
Map legend
  •   Finkenauer—80–90%
  •   Finkenauer—70–80%
  •   Finkenauer—60–70%
  •   Finkenauer—50–60%
  •   Heckroth—50–60%
Democratic primary results[14]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Abby Finkenauer 29,745 66.8
Democratic Thomas Heckroth 8,516 19.1
Democratic Courtney Rowe 3,381 7.6
Democratic George Ramsey 2,837 6.4
Democratic Write-ins 50 0.1
Total votes 44,529 100

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Nominee
  • Troy Hageman, activist

Green primary

Candidates

Nominee

Gaff was only 18, meaning he would not have met the U.S. Constitution's required minimum age of 25 to be elected to the House of Representatives.[15]

General election

Debates

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Rod
Blum (R)
Abby
Finkenauer (D)
Troy
Hageman (L)
Undecided
Emerson College October 29 – November 1, 2018 353 ± 5.5% 41% 53% 4% 2%
NYT Upshot/Siena College October 28–31, 2018 452 ± 4.9% 39% 46% 4% 11%
The Polling Company (R-Blum) October 12–13, 2018 400 ± 4.9% 43% 45% 4% 6%
The Polling Company (R-Blum) October 3–4, 2018 400 ± 4.9% 43% 44% 3% 8%
NYT Upshot/Siena College September 18–20, 2018 502 ± 4.6% 37% 52% 11%
Emerson College September 6–8, 2018 250 ± 6.4% 38% 43% 12%
DCCC (D) February 13–14, 2018 41% 47%
Public Policy Polling (D) February 12–13, 2018 742 ± 3.6% 42% 43% 15%
Public Policy Polling (D-Heckroth) November 2–3, 2017 737 42% 43% 16%
Public Policy Polling (D) October 6–8, 2017 1,093 ± 3.0% 40% 42% 18%

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[16] Lean D (flip) November 5, 2018
Inside Elections[17] Lean D (flip) November 5, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[18] Lean D (flip) November 5, 2018
RCP[19] Lean D (flip) November 5, 2018
Daily Kos[20] Lean D (flip) November 5, 2018
538[21] Safe D (flip) November 7, 2018
CNN[22] Lean D (flip) October 31, 2018
Fox News[23] Lean D (flip) September 21, 2018
Politico[24] Lean D (flip) November 2, 2018

Results

Finkenauer went on to flip the district, being one of many victories in swing districts for Democrats in a blue wave election.

Iowa's 1st congressional district, 2018
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Abby Finkenauer 170,342 51.0
Republican Rod Blum (incumbent) 153,442 45.9
Libertarian Troy Hageman 10,285 3.1
Write-in 174 0.0
Total votes 334,243 100.0
Democratic gain from Republican

District 2

2018 Iowa's 2nd congressional district election

← 2016
2020 →
 
Nominee Dave Loebsack Christopher Peters
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 171,446 133,287
Percentage 54.8% 42.6%

County results
Loebsack:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
Peters:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%

U.S. Representative before election

Dave Loebsack
Democratic

Elected U.S. Representative

Dave Loebsack
Democratic

Democratic representative Dave Loebsack, who has represented the district since 2007, was reelected to a sixth term with 54% of the vote in 2016. Loebsack ran for reelection.[25]

The 2nd district went for Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential election with a 49% to 45% margin, after voting for Barack Obama with a 56% to 43% margin in 2012.[2]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Results

2018 Iowa's 2nd congressional district Democratic primary results by county:
Map legend
  •   Loebsack—100%
  •   Loebsack—≥90%
Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Dave Loebsack (incumbent) 42,378 99.3
Democratic Write-ins 314 0.7
Total votes 42,692 100.0

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee
  • Christopher Peters, thoracic surgeon and nominee for this seat in 2016[26]
Eliminated in primary
  • Ginny Caligiuri, businesswoman (write-in)[27][28]
Declined

Results

2018 Iowa's 2nd congressional district Republican primary results by county:
Map legend
  •   Peters—≥90%
  •   Peters—80–90%
  •   Peters—70–80%
  •   Peters—50–60%
Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Christopher Peters 18,056 85.7
Republican Ginny Caligiuri (write-in) 2,839 13.5
Republican Other write-ins 181 0.9
Total votes 21,076 100.0

Independents

General election

Polling

Poll source Dates
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Dave
Loebsack (D)
Christopher
Peters (R)
Other Undecided
Emerson College October 29 – November 1, 2018 373 ± 5.3% 53% 40% 2% 5%
Gravis Marketing (R-Peters) September 8–11, 2018 425 ± 4.8% 46% 38% 16%
43% 37% 3%[30] 17%
Emerson College September 6–8, 2018 250 ± 6.4% 45% 21% 28%

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[16] Safe D November 5, 2018
Inside Elections[17] Safe D November 5, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[18] Safe D November 5, 2018
RCP[19] Likely D November 5, 2018
Daily Kos[20] Safe D November 5, 2018
538[21] Safe D November 7, 2018
Fox News[23] Likely D September 28, 2018
CNN[22] Safe D October 31, 2018
Politico[24] Likely D November 2, 2018

Results

Iowa's 2nd congressional district, 2018
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Dave Loebsack (incumbent) 171,446 54.8
Republican Christopher Peters 133,287 42.6
Libertarian Mark Strauss 6,181 2.0
Independent Daniel Clark 1,837 0.6
Write-in 162 0.0
Total votes 312,913 100.0
Democratic hold

District 3

2018 Iowa's 3rd congressional district election

← 2016
2020 →
 
Nominee Cindy Axne David Young
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 175,642 167,933
Percentage 49.3% 47.1%

County results
Axne:      50–60%
Young:      50–60%      60–70%

U.S. Representative before election

David Young
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

Cindy Axne
Democratic

Incumbent Republican David Young, who had represented the district since 2015, ran for re-election. He was re-elected with 53% of the vote in 2016. The district had a PVI of D+1.

The 3rd district went for Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential election with a 49% to 45% margin, after voting for Barack Obama with a 51% to 47% margin in 2012.[2]

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Results

2018 Iowa's 3rd congressional district Republican primary results by county:
Map legend
  •   Young—100%
  •   Young—≥90%
Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican David Young (incumbent) 21,712 98.9
Republican Write-ins 234 1.1
Total votes 21,946 100

Democratic primary

After Greenfield's campaign manager was fired for forging signatures on nominating papers, she attempted to re-collect the 1,790 signatures necessary to make the ballot, but did not get enough signatures.[31]

Candidates

Nominee
Eliminated in primary
Did not make ballot
Withdrew
  • Austin Frerick, former Treasury Department economist[38][39]
  • Paul Knupp, psychiatric rehabilitation practitioner and minister,[40] withdrew from the Democratic primary to join the Green party[citation needed]
  • Heather Ryan, nominee for KY-01 in 2008[41][42]
  • Anna Ryon, attorney with the Office of Consumer Advocate[43]
  • Mike Sherzan, businessman and candidate in 2016[44][45]
Declined

Endorsements

Austin Frerick (withdrawn)
U.S. Representatives
Pete D'Alessandro
U.S. Senators
State legislators
Labor unions
Organizations
Individuals
  • Sue Dvorsky, former Iowa Democratic Committee Chair[48]
  • Derek Eadon, former Iowa Democratic Committee Chair[48]
  • Ben Jacobs, Bernie Sanders’s 2016 campaign manager[52]

Polling

Poll source Dates
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Cindy
Axne
Pete
D'Alessandro
Eddie
Mauro
Undecided
Selzer & Co. May 13–16, 2018 400 ± 4.9% 26% 11% 27% 36%

Results

2018 Iowa's 3rd congressional district Democratic primary results by county:
Map legend
  •   Axne—70–80%
  •   Axne—60–70%
  •   Axne—50–60%
  •   Mauro—40–50%
Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Cindy Axne 32,910 57.8
Democratic Eddie J. Mauro 15,006 26.4
Democratic Pete D'Alessandro 8,874 15.6
Democratic Write-ins 150 0.3
Total votes 56,940 100

General election

Debates

Polling

Poll source Dates
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
David
Young (R)
Cindy
Axne (D)
Undecided
Emerson College October 29 – November 1, 2018 380 ± 5.3% 45% 46% 3%
NYT Upshot/Siena College October 25–27, 2018 504 ± 4.6% 41% 43% 11%
NYT Upshot/Siena College September 27–30, 2018 502 ± 4.6% 43% 44% 13%
Emerson College September 6–8, 2018 260 ± 6.4% 47% 31% 15%
DCCC (D) September 4–5, 2018 575 ± 4.1% 43% 46% 11%
ALG Research (D-Axne) July 8–12, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 41% 45% 14%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Dates
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
David
Young (R)
Democratic
candidate
Other Undecided
PPP/Patriot Majority USA October 6–8, 2017 693 ± 3.7% 44% 43%

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[16] Tossup November 5, 2018
Inside Elections[17] Tossup November 5, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[18] Lean D (flip) November 5, 2018
RCP[19] Tossup November 5, 2018
Daily Kos[20] Tossup November 5, 2018
538[21] Lean D (flip) November 7, 2018
CNN[22] Tossup October 31, 2018
Fox News[23] Tossup September 21, 2018
Politico[24] Tossup November 2, 2018

Results

Iowa's 3rd congressional district, 2018
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Cindy Axne 175,642 49.3
Republican David Young (incumbent) 167,933 47.1
Libertarian Bryan Holder 7,267 2.0
Legal Marijuana Now Mark Elworth Jr. 2,015 0.6
Green Paul Knupp 1,888 0.5
Independent Joe Grandanette 1,301 0.4
Write-in 195 0.1
Total votes 356,241 100.0
Democratic gain from Republican

District 4

2018 Iowa's 4th congressional district election

← 2016
2020 →
 
Nominee Steve King J. D. Scholten
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 157,676 147,246
Percentage 50.3% 47.0%

County results
King:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
Scholten:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%

U.S. Representative before election

Steve King
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

Steve King
Republican

Incumbent Republican Steve King, who had represented the district since 2013, and previously represented the 5th district from 2003 to 2013, ran for re-election. He was re-elected with 61% of the vote in 2016. The district had a PVI of R+11.

The 4th district went for Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential election with a 61% to 34% margin, after voting for Mitt Romney with a 53% to 45% margin in 2012.[2]

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee
Eliminated in primary
  • Cyndi Hanson, educational administrator[54]
Declined

Results

2018 Iowa's 4th congressional district Republican primary results by county:
Map legend
  •   King—80–90%
  •   King—70–80%
  •   King—60–70%
Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Steve King (incumbent) 28,053 74.7
Republican Cyndi Hanson 9,437 25.1
Republican Write-ins 44 0.1
Total votes 37,534 100

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee
Eliminated in primary
Withdrawn
Declined

Results

2018 Iowa's 4th congressional district Democratic primary results by county:
Map legend
  •   Scholten—70–80%
  •   Scholten—60–70%
  •   Scholten—50–60%
  •   Scholten—40–50%
  •   Scholten—30–40%
  •   Jacobsen—40–50%
  •   Jacobsen—50–60%
  •   Jacobsen—60–70%
Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic J. D. Scholten 14,733 51.3
Democratic Leann Jacobsen 9,176 31.9
Democratic John Paschen 4,806 16.7
Democratic Write-ins 29 0.1
Total votes 28,744 100.0

General election

King declined to debate Scholten during the general election campaign.[63][64]

Endorsements

J. D.Scholten (D)
U.S. Senators

Polling

Poll source Dates
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Steve
King (R)
J.D.
Scholten (D)
Other Undecided
NYT Upshot/Siena College October 31 – November 4, 2018 423 ± 5.0% 47% 42% 1% 9%
Emerson College October 29 – November 1, 2018 356 ± 5.5% 51% 42% 4%
Change Research (D) October 27–29, 2018 631 45% 44%
WPA Intelligence (R-King) October 22–24, 2018 401 ± 4.9% 52% 34% 3% 11%
Expedition Strategies (D-Scholten) September 5–9, 2018 380 ± 5.0% 43% 37%
Emerson College September 6–8, 2018 240 ± 6.5% 41% 31% 16%

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[16] Lean R November 5, 2018
Inside Elections[17] Likely R November 5, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[18] Lean R November 5, 2018
RCP[19] Lean R November 5, 2018
Daily Kos[20] Likely R November 5, 2018
538[21] Likely R November 7, 2018
Fox News[23] Lean R September 21, 2018
CNN[22] Likely R October 31, 2018
Politico[24] Likely R November 2, 2018

Results

King won by the slimmest margin of victory in his congressional electoral career.[66]

Iowa's 4th congressional district, 2018
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Steve King (incumbent) 157,676 50.3
Democratic J. D. Scholten 147,246 47.0
Libertarian Charles Aldrich 6,161 2.0
Independent Edward Peterson 1,962 0.6
Write-in 206 0.0
Total votes 313,256 100.0
Republican hold

References

  1. ^ Johnson, Cheryl L. (February 28, 2019). "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 6, 2018". Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives. Retrieved April 27, 2019.
  2. ^ a b c d "Morning Digest: Facing reality, Pat McCrory finally concedes North Carolina governor's race". Daily Kos Elections. December 6, 2016. Retrieved January 18, 2017.
  3. ^ Pat Rynard (May 3, 2017). "ABBY FINKENAUER LAUNCHES CONGRESSIONAL BID ON WORKING CLASS MESSAGE". Iowa Starting Line. Retrieved May 3, 2017.
  4. ^ a b "Stacey Walker may run for Congress in IA-01". Bleeding Heartland. June 13, 2017. Retrieved June 13, 2017.
  5. ^ a b James Q. Lynch (July 10, 2017). "Thomas Heckroth joins field of candidates seeking to unseat U.S. Rep. Rod Blum". Mason City Globe Gazette. Retrieved July 10, 2017.
  6. ^ James Q. Lynch (May 30, 2017). "Cedar Rapids engineer Courtney Rowe joins 1st District Democratic race". The Gazette. Retrieved May 31, 2017.
  7. ^ a b c "Democrats set to target Blum in IA-01; GOP will go after Loebsack in IA-02". Bleeding Heartland. February 3, 2017. Retrieved February 3, 2017.
  8. ^ Steele, Ron (September 21, 2017). "Senator Danielson says he will not run for Congress in 2018". KWWL. Archived from the original on September 22, 2017. Retrieved September 21, 2017.
  9. ^ Lynch, James Q. (January 18, 2017). "Mathis rules out running for Iowa governor in 2018". The Gazette. Retrieved January 18, 2017.
  10. ^ a b c James Q. Lynch (July 17, 2017). "Linn County Supervisor Stacy Walker won't run for U.S. House". Muscatine Journal. Retrieved July 27, 2017.
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  13. ^ a b c d e "Join Team Heckroth". Thomas Heckroth for Congress. Archived from the original on July 24, 2017. Retrieved July 27, 2017.
  14. ^ "Primary election 2018 canvass summary" (PDF). sos.iowa.gov. Retrieved March 6, 2023.
  15. ^ a b Crippes, Christinia. "Green Party candidate announces 1st District bid". Waterloo Cedar Falls Courier. Retrieved September 14, 2017.
  16. ^ a b c d "2018 House Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved October 30, 2018.
  17. ^ a b c d "2018 House Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved November 5, 2018.
  18. ^ a b c d "2018 House". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved November 5, 2018.
  19. ^ a b c d "Battle for the House 2018". RCP. Retrieved November 5, 2018.
  20. ^ a b c d "Daily Kos Elections 2018 race ratings". Daily Kos. Retrieved November 5, 2018.[permanent dead link]
  21. ^ a b c d Silver, Nate (August 16, 2018). "2018 House Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved November 6, 2018.
  22. ^ a b c d "CNN's 2018 Race Ratings". cnn.com. Turner Broadcasting System. Archived from the original on October 31, 2018. Retrieved July 30, 2023.
  23. ^ a b c d "Fox News Midterms 2018 America's Election HQ". Fox News. Retrieved August 18, 2018.
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  25. ^ Dolmage, David (August 3, 2017). "Loebsack lays out plan for 2018". Newton Daily News. Retrieved August 3, 2017.
  26. ^ Christopher Peters announces run for U.S. Congress, daily-iowan.Com, 2017/07/19.
  27. ^ "Ginny Caligiuri announces bid for Congress in Iowa's 2nd District". Des Moines Register.
  28. ^ "Iowa Starting Line on Twitter". Retrieved August 29, 2018.
  29. ^ "danielclarkforcongress.com". danielclarkforcongress.
  30. ^ Daniel Clark (I) with 2%, Mark Strauss (L) with 1%
  31. ^ "Democratic Candidate Theresa Greenfield Fails to Make it on Primary Ballot". whotv.com. March 19, 2018. Retrieved March 19, 2018.
  32. ^ Pfannenstiel, Brianne (June 2, 2017). "Cynthia Axne announces candidacy challenging David Young". The Des Moines Register. Retrieved June 2, 2017.
  33. ^ a b c "Candidate List" (PDF). sos.iowa.gov. Retrieved March 6, 2023.
  34. ^ "Democrat Pete D'Alessando exploring congressional run in Iowa's 3rd District". The Des Moines Register. April 25, 2017. Retrieved August 26, 2017.
  35. ^ Pfannenstiel, Brianne; Ufheil, Angela (August 26, 2017). "Democrat Pete D'Alessandro will challenge David Young for Congress". The Des Moines Register. Retrieved August 27, 2017.
  36. ^ Noble, Jason (July 27, 2017). "Eddie Mauro exploring run for Congress in Iowa's 3rd District". The Des Moines Register. Retrieved July 28, 2017.
  37. ^ Noble, Jason (July 5, 2017). "Real estate executive Theresa Greenfield joins 3rd District race for Congress". The Des Moines Register. Retrieved July 5, 2017.
  38. ^ a b Noble, Jason (August 4, 2017). "Democrat Austin Frerick is running for Congress in Iowa's 3rd". The Des Moines Register. Retrieved August 8, 2017.
  39. ^ "Iowa Congressional Candidate Drops Out of Race". whotv.com. March 17, 2018.
  40. ^ "Background on Paul Knupp, another Democratic candidate in IA-03". Bleeding Heartland. June 12, 2017. Retrieved June 13, 2017.
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External links

Official campaign websites for first district candidates
Official campaign websites for second district candidates
Official campaign websites for third district candidates
Official campaign websites for fourth district candidates
This page was last edited on 10 March 2024, at 04:24
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