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2018 United States Senate election in Wisconsin

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

2018 United States Senate election in Wisconsin

← 2012 November 6, 2018 (2018-11-06) 2024 →
Turnout61.2% Decrease
 
Nominee Tammy Baldwin Leah Vukmir
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 1,472,914 1,184,885
Percentage 55.36% 44.53%

Baldwin:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Vukmir:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      40–50%      50%
     No data

U.S. senator before election

Tammy Baldwin
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Tammy Baldwin
Democratic

The 2018 United States Senate election in Wisconsin took place on November 6, 2018, concurrently with a gubernatorial election and U.S. House elections. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Tammy Baldwin won a second term, defeating Republican challenger Leah Vukmir by more than 10 percentage points. The primary elections were held on August 14, with a filing deadline on June 1. Baldwin was unopposed for the Democratic nomination, while Vukmir defeated Charles Barman, Griffin Jones, George Lucia and Kevin Nicholson in the Republican primary.[1]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Endorsements

Tammy Baldwin
U.S. Senators
Organizations

Results

Results by county:
Baldwin
  •   Baldwin—100%
  •   Baldwin—≥90%
Democratic primary results[28]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Tammy Baldwin (incumbent) 510,812 99.64%
Write-in 1,848 0.36%
Total votes 512,660 100%

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Declined

Endorsements

Kevin Nicholson
Federal officials
U.S. Senators
State legislators
Organizations
Newspapers
Leah Vukmir
Federal officials
U.S. Representatives
State officials
State legislators
Local officials
Individuals
Organizations

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Kevin
Nicholson
Leah
Vukmir
Other Undecided
Emerson College Archived 2018-08-18 at the Wayback Machine July 26–28, 2018 238 ± 6.5% 35% 35% 3% 27%
Marist College July 15–19, 2018 355 ± 6.1% 38% 28% <1% 34%
Hodas & Associates (R-Restoration PAC) July 12–16, 2018 600 ± 3.0% 33% 20% 47%
Marquette University Archived 2020-03-05 at the Wayback Machine July 11–15, 2018 266 ± 7.0% 32% 34% 2% 30%
Marquette University June 13–17, 2018 274 ± 6.9% 37% 32% 1% 30%
Hodas & Associates (R-Restoration PAC) June 7–12, 2018 600 ± 3.0% 28% 14% 58%
The Tarrance Group (R-Wisconsin Next PAC) May 31 – June 4, 2018 800 ± 3.5% 29% 36% 35%
American Viewpoint (R-Vukmir) May 29–31, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 32% 30%
Hodas & Associates (R-Restoration PAC) April 30 – May 3, 2018 240 ± 6.0% 46% 15%
WPA Intelligence (R-Nicholson) April 2–4, 2018 1,028 ± 3.1% 45% 27% 28%
Marquette University February 25 – March 1, 2018 243 ± 8.2% 28% 19% 2% 49%
WPA Intelligence (R-Nicholson) January 22–23, 2018 350 ± 5.2% 48% 9% 1%[a] 42%
WPA Intelligence (R-Nicholson) January 2–3, 2018 350 ± 5.2% 27% 10% 2%[b] 60%
WPA Intelligence (R-Nicholson) December 6–7, 2017 1,004 ± 3.1% 30% 23% 2%[b] 45%
Notes
  1. ^ John Schiess 1%
  2. ^ a b John Schiess 2%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
David
Clarke
Sean
Duffy
Undecided
Magellan Strategies (R) February 15–16, 2017 300 ± 5.7% 32% 26% 42%

Results

Results by county
  Vukmir
  •   60–70%
  •   50–60%
  •   40–50%
  Nicholson
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
Republican primary results[28]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Leah Vukmir 217,230 48.90%
Republican Kevin Nicholson 191,276 43.06%
Republican George Lucia 18,786 4.23%
Republican Griffin Jones 8,699 1.96%
Republican Charles Barman 7,959 1.79%
Write-in 303 0.07%
Total votes 444,253 100%

General election

Endorsements

Leah Vukmir (R)
U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State officials
State legislators
Local officials
Individuals
Organizations
Tammy Baldwin (D)
Former U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State officials
State legislators
Local officials
Individuals
Organizations

Debates

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[110] Likely D October 26, 2018
Inside Elections[111] Safe D November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[112] Likely D November 5, 2018
Fox News[113][a] Likely D November 5, 2018
CNN[114] Likely D November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics[115] Lean D November 5, 2018
Notes
  1. ^ The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Tammy
Baldwin (D)
Leah
Vukmir (R)
Other Undecided
Research Co. November 1–3, 2018 450 ± 4.6% 50% 39% 11%
Emerson College October 29–31, 2018 604 ± 4.1% 53% 44% 3%
Marquette University October 24–28, 2018 1,154 LV ± 3.2% 54% 43% 1%
1,400 RV ± 3.0% 52% 42% 3%
Ipsos October 12–18, 2018 1,193 ± 3.0% 54% 39% 3% 5%
Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care) October 10–11, 2018 816 ± 3.4% 52% 42% 6%
Marquette University October 3–7, 2018 799 LV ± 3.9% 53% 43% 2%
1,000 RV ± 3.6% 53% 42% 3%
Marist College September 30 – October 3, 2018 571 LV ± 4.8% 54% 40% 1% 5%
781 RV ± 4.1% 53% 40% 1% 6%
Ipsos September 14–24, 2018 1,109 ± 3.0% 52% 39% 4% 5%
Marquette University September 12–16, 2018 614 LV ± 4.4% 53% 42% 2%
800 RV ± 4.0% 52% 40% 4%
Suffolk University Archived 2018-11-07 at the Wayback Machine August 18–24, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 50% 42% 8%
Marquette University August 15–19, 2018 601 LV ± 4.5% 49% 47% 2%
800 RV ± 4.0% 51% 43% 4%
Emerson College Archived 2018-08-18 at the Wayback Machine July 26–28, 2018 632 ± 4.2% 50% 36% 4% 10%
Marist College July 15–19, 2018 906 ± 3.8% 55% 38% 1% 6%
SurveyMonkey/Axios June 11 – July 2, 2018 968 ± 4.5% 56% 40% 4%
Marquette University June 13–17, 2018 800 ± 4.0% 49% 40% 8%
Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care) March 15–16, 2018 910 ± 3.3% 51% 39% 10%
Hypothetical polling
with Kevin Nicholson
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Tammy
Baldwin (D)
Kevin
Nicholson (R)
Other Undecided
Emerson College Archived 2018-08-18 at the Wayback Machine July 26–28, 2018 632 ± 4.2% 49% 40% 3% 9%
Marist College July 15–19, 2018 906 ± 3.8% 54% 39% 1% 6%
SurveyMonkey/Axios June 11 – July 2, 2018 968 ± 4.5% 55% 42% 3%
Marquette University June 13–17, 2018 800 ± 4.0% 50% 39% 7%
Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care) March 15–16, 2018 910 ± 3.3% 51% 38% 11%
with generic Republican
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Tammy
Baldwin (D)
Generic
Republican
Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios February 12 – March 5, 2018 1,668 ± 3.6% 49% 46% 5%
with David Clarke
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Tammy
Baldwin (D)
David
Clarke (R)
Other Undecided
Magellan Strategies (R) February 9–10, 2017 500 ± 4.4% 49% 35% 2% 14%
with Sean Duffy
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Tammy
Baldwin (D)
Sean
Duffy (R)
Other Undecided
Magellan Strategies (R) February 9–10, 2017 500 ± 4.4% 49% 36% 2% 13%

Results

Despite initial expectations of a potentially close race, Baldwin ended up winning by over 10 percentage points, which was the highest margin of victory for a Wisconsin Democratic statewide candidate in 2018. She ran up the margins in the traditional Democratic strongholds of Milwaukee and Madison, but also won in western Wisconsin, Green Bay and most of the counties bordering Illinois, including Racine, Rock, and Kenosha counties.[116]

United States Senate election in Wisconsin, 2018[117]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Tammy Baldwin (incumbent) 1,472,914 55.36% +3.95%
Republican Leah Vukmir 1,184,885 44.53% -1.33%
Write-in 2,964 0.11% N/A
Total votes 2,660,763 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Despite winning by over 10 percentage points, Baldwin only won 3 out of 8 Congressional districts.

District Vukmir Baldwin Representative
1st 50.3% 49.6% Bryan Steil
2nd 26.4% 73.4% Mark Pocan
3rd 43.5% 56.4% Ron Kind
4th 21.3% 78.6% Gwen Moore
5th 56.9% 43.0% Jim Sensenbrenner
6th 52.4% 47.5% Glenn Grothman
7th 52.2% 47.7% Sean Duffy
8th 51.5% 48.5% Mike Gallagher

See also

Notes

References

  1. ^ "Elections - Wisconsin Elections Commission". elections.wi.gov. Archived from the original on April 17, 2018. Retrieved March 29, 2018.
  2. ^ "Sen. Baldwin prepares for re-election fight in 2018". April 19, 2017.
  3. ^ a b "WI-Sen: Sen. Cory Booker (D. NJ) Helps Fuel Tammy Baldwin's (D) Re-Election Campaign". Daily Kos. March 11, 2018.
  4. ^ a b "WI-Sen: Sen. Tammy Duckwoth (D. IL) Refuses To Let Cadet Bone Spurs Defeat A Fellow Tammy". Daily Kos. March 27, 2018.
  5. ^ a b "WI, FL & VA-Sen: Sen. Dick Durbin (D. IL) Helps These Democrats Keep Up The Resistance". Daily Kos. October 30, 2017.
  6. ^ a b "WI-Sen: Russ Feingold (D) Refuses To Let Right-Wing Billionaires Defeat Tammy Baldwin (D)". Daily Kos. June 22, 2017.
  7. ^ a b "WI-Sen: Al Franken (D. MN) Helps Fuel Tammy Baldwin's (D) Campaign To Continue To Take On Trump". Daily Kos. June 22, 2017.
  8. ^ a b "WI-Sen: Kamala Harris (D. CA) Helps Tammy Baldwin (D) Keep Up The Fight To Defeat Trumpcare". Daily Kos. June 22, 2017.
  9. ^ a b "MA, MO & WI-Sen: Sen. Maggie Hassan (D. NH) Helps These Women Persist & Resist Trump". Daily Kos. November 7, 2017.
  10. ^ a b Jones sent out an email to supporters soliciting donations to Baldwin.
  11. ^ a b "MO & WI-Sen: Sen Catherine Cortez Masto (D. NV) Helps These Dems Keep Up The Resistance". Daily Kos. September 29, 2017.
  12. ^ a b "WI-Sen: Sen. Jeff Merkley (D. OR) Refuses To Let Trump & The Kochs Take Down Tammy Baldwin (D)". Daily Kos. March 9, 2018.
  13. ^ a b "MI, IN, WI, MN, OH & PA-Sen: Sen. Gary Peters (D. MI) Helps Senate Dems Win Big In The Midwest". Daily Kos. February 27, 2018.
  14. ^ a b Tammy Baldwin. "Exciting announcement: @BernieSanders is coming to Wisconsin to show that he's on #TeamTammy!". Twitter.
  15. ^ a b "Elizabeth Warren to appear at fundraiser for Tammy Baldwin Saturday in Milwaukee".
  16. ^ a b "WI-Sen: Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D. RI) Refuses To Let Kochs' Dark Money Defeat Tammy Baldwin (D)". Daily Kos. February 8, 2018.
  17. ^ a b "2018 Council-endorsed Senate Candidates - Council for a Livable World". Council for a Livable World.
  18. ^ a b Hagen, Lisa (January 20, 2017). "Major progressive group unveils first 2018 Senate endorsements". The Hill. Retrieved January 29, 2017.
  19. ^ a b "EMILY's List Endorses Nine Democratic Women Senators for Re-Election in 2018". EMILY's List. February 10, 2017. Retrieved February 13, 2017.
  20. ^ a b Pathé, Simone (April 13, 2017). "Liberal PAC Makes First Senate Endorsements of 2018". Roll Call. Retrieved April 14, 2017.
  21. ^ a b "2018 Senate Endorsees - JStreet". Archived from the original on June 16, 2018. Retrieved June 20, 2018.
  22. ^ a b c d "LCV Action Fund and the Sierra Club Endorse Senator Tammy Baldwin for Re-Election". League of Conservation Voters. March 20, 2018.
  23. ^ a b "LegitPAC - LegitAction". legitaction.com.
  24. ^ a b Stewart, Brian (August 1, 2017). "MoveOn Endorses Six Senators' Re-Election Bids, Backing 'Health Care Heroes' for Helping Lead Effort to Stop Trumpcare From Becoming Law, Embracing Progressive Policies in Trump Era". MoveOn.org. Retrieved September 10, 2017.
  25. ^ a b "Federal Endorsements by the NOW PAC | National Organization for Women Political Action Committees". nowpac.org. August 23, 2017. Archived from the original on April 26, 2019. Retrieved August 1, 2018.
  26. ^ a b Dison, Denis (January 31, 2018). "NRDC Action Fund endorses Sens. Tammy Baldwin and Bill Nelson". Natural Resources Defense Council. Retrieved March 13, 2018.
  27. ^ a b Laguens, Dawn; Atkinson, Tanya (May 10, 2018). "Planned Parenthood Action Fund Endorses U.S. Senator Tammy Baldwin for Re-election". plannedparenthoodaction.org. Planned Parenthood Action Fund.
  28. ^ a b "United States Senate primary election in Wisconsin, 2018" (PDF). Office of the Wisconsin Secretary of State. Retrieved June 6, 2019.
  29. ^ Greenwood, Max (August 14, 2018). "Establishment-backed Vukmir wins Wisconsin GOP Senate primary". The Hill.
  30. ^ "BARMAN, CHARLES EDWARD - Candidate overview - FEC.gov". FEC.gov.
  31. ^ "JONES, GRIFFIN GILBERT - Candidate overview - FEC.gov". FEC.gov.
  32. ^ "Wisconsin 2018 General Election". The Green Papers.
  33. ^ Glabuer, Bill (July 26, 2017). "Marine veteran Kevin Nicholson launches GOP Wisconsin Senate bid against Tammy Baldwin". Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.
  34. ^ Horning, Joe (January 19, 2017). "Super PAC wants David Clarke to run against Tammy Baldwin". WFRV-TV. Retrieved January 19, 2017.
  35. ^ ""Cop Under Fire:" Sheriff Clarke says he won't run for Senate, criticizes Gov. Walker in new book". March 1, 2017.
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  37. ^ Pathé, Simone (February 15, 2017). "Wisconsin's Sean Duffy Expected to Forgo Senate Bid". Roll Call. Retrieved February 15, 2017.
  38. ^ "Republican Eric Hovde won't decide Senate run for months". WQOW. Associated Press. November 17, 2016. Archived from the original on November 18, 2016. Retrieved November 17, 2016.
  39. ^ "Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch Rules Out 2018 Senate Run" (PDF). usnews.com. June 19, 2017.
  40. ^ Bader, Jerry (March 28, 2017). "Another GOP Name Surfaces in WI 2018 Senate Race". RightWisconsin. Archived from the original on March 29, 2017. Retrieved March 28, 2017.
  41. ^ Stein, Jason (June 27, 2017). "Nicole Schneider won't run for Senate against Tammy Baldwin". Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Retrieved June 28, 2017.
  42. ^ a b c "I'm proud to support my colleague, friend and consistent conservative warrior @LeahVukmir for US Senate. #WIsen". Twitter. September 7, 2017. Retrieved September 7, 2017.
  43. ^ Sommerhauser, Mark (October 6, 2016). "Charlie Sykes: 'Absolutely no truth' to suggestion he'd challenge Tammy Baldwin for U.S. Senate". Wisconsin State Journal. Retrieved October 11, 2016.
  44. ^ Drucker, David M. (November 16, 2016). "Gov. Scott Walker leaning toward re-election, rules out 2018 Senate bid". The Washington Examiner. Retrieved November 17, 2016.
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  49. ^ Jesse Kremer. "Proud to be endorsing @KevinMNicholson for US Senate!". Twitter.
  50. ^ Sarah Seifert (May 16, 2018). "Third Wisconsin veterans' tour draws in candidate for U.S. Senate seat at Chippewa Falls stop". Chippewa Herald.
  51. ^ "Club PAC-Endorsed Candidates". Club for Growth.
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  82. ^ a b Bill Glauber (May 12, 2018). "Leah Vukmir claims U.S. Senate endorsement at Wisconsin GOP convention". Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Archived from the original on June 14, 2018.
  83. ^ a b "ICYMI – RightNOW Women PAC Endorses Leah Vukmir". RightNOW Women. Urban Milwaukee. January 2, 2018. Archived from the original on February 4, 2018.
  84. ^ a b Waukesha Young Republicans. "Young Republicans across Waukesha County TODAY are casting their vote for our great team of proven conservatives to keep WI moving forward & bring the WI Way to DC!! #WIRight #WYR #ChooseLeah #WIYREndorsed". Twitter.
  85. ^ Mike Pence. "Big night for Wisconsin! Congrats to my friend & one of the nation's greatest governors @ScottWalker on his primary victory. And congrats to @LeahVukmir & @BryanSteilForWI, two great future leaders of the GOP!". Twitter.
  86. ^ Leah Vukmir. "Leah "is a strong leader who will ensure Wisconsin leads the way into the future. I am pleased to support her candidacy for the Senate." — Condoleezza Rice 🇺🇸 #wisen". Twitter.
  87. ^ Donald J. Trump. "Congratulations to Leah Vukmir of Wisconsin on your great win last night. You beat a very tough and good competitor and will make a fantastic Senator after winning in November against someone who has done very little. You have my complete and total Endorsement!". Twitter.
  88. ^ Ron Johnson. "Congratulations @LeahVukmir! #wisen". Twitter.
  89. ^ Eric Trump. "Thank you WISCONSIN!!! I absolutely loved being in your incredible state in support of the amazing @LeahVukmir, @RepSeanDuffy and @RepGrothman as we work to #MakeAmericaGreatAgain! #USAUSAUSA". Twitter.
  90. ^ "Milwaukee Police Association Endorses Leah Vukmir for U.S. Senate". Urban Milwaukee. October 29, 2018. Retrieved October 31, 2018.
  91. ^ "U.S. Chamber of Commerce Endorses Leah Vukmir for U.S. Senate". Urban Milwaukee. October 30, 2018. Retrieved October 31, 2018.
  92. ^ Joe Biden. "We desperately need men and women of character in elected office. That's why next Tuesday, one week out from Election Day, I'm proud to join @tammybaldwin & @Tony4WI at early vote rallies". Twitter.
  93. ^ Barack Obama. "Today, I'm proud to endorse even more Democratic candidates who aren't just running against something, but for something—to expand opportunity for all of us and to restore dignity, honor, and compassion to public service. They deserve your vote". Twitter.
  94. ^ Tammy Baldwin. "My friend @joekennedy is getting folks fired up today! He made some new friends at Marquette University this morning and is making sure everyone has a plan to vote!". Twitter.
  95. ^ Gwen Moore. "I am honored to stand tall with Senator @tammybaldwin in the fight to take #WI back this November! We must work together for progress and prosperity". Twitter.
  96. ^ Mark Pocan. "So glad to support @tammybaldwin today". Twitter.
  97. ^ Tony Evers. "What an incredible afternoon in Milwaukee with @BarackObama, @TammyBaldwin, and our Wisconsin Democratic ticket. Our message was loud and clear: Democrats are fired up to vote and take our state back this November". Twitter.
  98. ^ Mandela Barnes. "Are we in the cheap seats, or is there just that much support for Tammy Baldwin? The answer is yes!". Twitter.
  99. ^ Bill de Blasio. "We have to show people their power. People talk themselves out of their power - because they're told that. You're agents of empowerment. @tammybaldwin". Twitter.
  100. ^ Tammy Baldwin. ""We need every woman across Wisconsin to stand up with Tammy — she stands up with us every day." — @Schriock1". Twitter.
  101. ^ Siskind, Amy [@Amy_Siskind] (October 8, 2018). "END Mitch McConnell's reign of terror. Donate/volunteer for these close senate races: Jacky Rosen, NV Phil Bredesen, TN Claire McCaskill, MO Bill Nelson, FL Joe Donnelly, IN Heidi Heitkamp, ND Beto O'Rourke, TX Kyrsten Sinema, AZ Tammy Baldwin, WI" (Tweet). Retrieved October 20, 2018 – via Twitter.
  102. ^ Tammy Baldwin. ".@WhitfordBradley was in Wausau getting folks fired up to make calls and knock doors for Tammy! As a native Wisconsinite, he knows the stakes are too high in this election to sit on the sidelines". Twitter.
  103. ^ "Retiree Group Endorses Sen. Tammy Baldwin for U.S. Senate - Retired Americans". Retired Americans. October 8, 2018.
  104. ^ "Tammy Baldwin – Feminist Majority PAC". feministmajoritypac.org.
  105. ^ "Candidates We Endorse and Support - NCPSSM". ncpssm.org.
  106. ^ "Population Connection Action Fund Endorsements". Population Connection. Archived from the original on April 5, 2018. Retrieved October 27, 2018.
  107. ^ "Endorsed Candidates | Rachel's Action Network". rachelsactionnetwork.org.
  108. ^ "Candidates – Run with Pride | Electing LGBTQ+ Candidates to Congress". runwithpride.org.
  109. ^ "Wisconsin – Official UAW Endorsements". uawendorsements.org. United Automobile Workers.
  110. ^ "2018 Senate Race Ratings for October 26, 2018". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved March 13, 2021.
  111. ^ "2018 Senate Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved March 13, 2021.
  112. ^ Skelley, Geoffrey (June 21, 2018). "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » Senate 2018: Two Rust Belt Ratings Move in the Democrats' Direction". centerforpolitics.org. Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball.
  113. ^ "2018 Senate Power Rankings". Fox News. Retrieved July 10, 2018.
  114. ^ "Key Races: Senate". Retrieved July 15, 2018.
  115. ^ "Battle for the Senate 2018". Retrieved July 15, 2018.
  116. ^ Glauber, Bill. "Tammy Baldwin's win - the largest in a top race in Wisconsin in 12 years - offers road map for 2020". Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Retrieved November 14, 2018.
  117. ^ "Canvass Results for 2018 General Election" (PDF). elections.wi.gov. December 9, 2018. Archived from the original (PDF) on May 17, 2022. Retrieved December 30, 2018.

External links

Official campaign websites
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