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2018 United States Senate election in Montana

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

2018 United States Senate election in Montana

← 2012 November 6, 2018 2024 →
Turnout71.53% (of registered voters)[1] Increase
 
Nominee Jon Tester Matt Rosendale
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 253,876 235,963
Percentage 50.33% 46.78%

Tester:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Rosendale:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%

U.S. senator before election

Jon Tester
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Jon Tester
Democratic

The 2018 United States Senate election in Montana was held on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Montana, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Although Montana went for Donald Trump by a margin of about 20 percent in 2016, incumbent Democratic Senator Jon Tester was reelected to a third term, defeating Republican State Auditor Matt Rosendale. Rosendale conceded on November 7, 2018.[2] This was the first Senate election in which Tester received a majority of votes cast rather than a simple plurality.

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Transcription

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominated

Endorsements

Jon Tester
U.S. Vice President
U.S. Senators
Local and statewide politicians
Organizations

Results

Democratic primary results[16]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Jon Tester (incumbent) 114,948 100.00%
Total votes 114,948 100.00%

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

Withdrew

  • Ron Murray, businessman and candidate for the state house in 2010[21][22]

Declined

Endorsements

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Troy
Downing
Russell
Fagg
Al
Olszewski
Matt
Rosendale
Other Undecided
WPA Intelligence (R-Club for Growth) April 15–16, 2018 503 ± 4.4% 12% 17% 8% 40% 23%
WPA Intelligence (R-Rosendale) February 5–7, 2018 401 ± 4.4% 12% 11% 5% 28% 1%[41]

Results

Results by county
Map legend
  •   Rosendale—60–70%
  •   Rosendale—50–60%
  •   Rosendale—40–50%
  •   Rosendale—30–40%
  •   Rosendale—<30%
  •   Rosendale/Fagg tie—30–40%
  •   Fagg—30–40%
  •   Fagg—40–50%
  •   Fagg—50–60%
  •   Olszewski—30–40%
  •   Olszewski—40–50%
Republican primary results[16]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Matt Rosendale 51,859 33.82%
Republican Russ Fagg 43,465 28.34%
Republican Troy Downing 29,341 19.13%
Republican Al Olszewski 28,681 18.70%
Total votes 153,346 100.00%

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Nominated

In October 2018, Breckenridge told a reporter from the Associated Press that he opposed the use of dark money in politics. Breckenridge said that he realistically anticipated only receiving three or four percent of the vote in the general election, and that he endorsed Rosendale's efforts to stop the use of dark money in politics.[43] The Associated Press interpreted Breckenridge's comments as a statement that Breckenridge was dropping out of the race and endorsing Rosendale.[43] Breckenridge later stated that his use of the word "endorse" referred only to stopping the use of dark money in politics, and said he was still running for the Senate.[44][45][46]

Green Party

Kelly won the Green Party nomination, but a Montana district court judge ruled that he had insufficient signatures to get on the ballot.[47]

Candidates

Nominee (removed from ballot)

  • Steve Kelly, artist and environmental activist[48]

Eliminated in primary

  • Timothy Adams

Results

Results by county
Map legend
  •   Kelly—100%
  •   Kelly—≥90%
  •   Kelly—80–90%
  •   Kelly—70–80%
  •   Kelly—60–70%
  •   Kelly—50–60%
  •   Kelly—40–50%
  •   Kelly/Adams tie—30–40%
  •   Kelly/Adams tie—50%
  •   Adams—50–60%
  •   Adams—60–70%
  •   Adams—100%
  •   No votes
Green primary results[16]
Party Candidate Votes %
Green Steve Kelly 971 61.22%
Green Timothy Adams 615 38.78%
Total votes 1,586 100%

General election

Debates

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[49] Tossup October 26, 2018
Inside Elections[50] Tilt D November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[51] Lean D November 5, 2018
Daily Kos[52] Tossup November 1, 2018
Fox News[53] Lean D November 1, 2018
CNN[54] Lean D November 1, 2018
RealClearPolitics[55] Tossup November 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[56] Likely D November 6, 2018

Endorsements

Matt Rosendale (R)
U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Individuals
Organizations

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of October 17, 2018
Candidate (party) Total receipts Total disbursements Cash on hand
Jon Tester (D) $19,499,290 $17,946,600 $1,612,530
Matt Rosendale (R) $5,034,075 $4,515,910 $524,379
Rick Breckenridge (L) - - -
Source: Federal Election Commission[79]

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Jon
Tester (D)
Matt
Rosendale (R)
Rick
Breckenridge (L)
Other Undecided
The Trafalgar Group (R) November 2–5, 2018 953 ± 3.2% 50% 49% 1% 0%
HarrisX November 1–5, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 50% 42%
Change Research November 2–4, 2018 879 46% 49% 3%
HarrisX October 31 – November 4, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 49% 43%
HarrisX October 30 – November 3, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 49% 43%
HarrisX October 29 – November 2, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 50% 42%
HarrisX October 28 – November 1, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 49% 42%
HarrisX October 27–31, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 49% 42%
HarrisX October 24–30, 2018 700 ± 3.7% 48% 40%
Gravis Marketing October 24–26, 2018 782 ± 3.5% 48% 45% 7%
University of Montana October 10–18, 2018 533 ± 4.3% 49% 39% 2% 10%
Montana State University Billings October 8–13, 2018 471 ± 4.5% 47% 38% 3% 12%
Montana State University Bozeman September 15 – October 6, 2018 2,079 ± 2.2% 46% 43% 3% 2% 7%
Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care) September 28, 2018 594 ± 4.0% 49% 45% 6%
Gravis Marketing September 19–22, 2018 710 ± 3.7% 49% 45% 6%
Axis Research (R-NRSC) September 17–19, 2018 ± 4.5% 44% 44% 4% 8%
AARP/Benenson Strategy Group (D) September 6–16, 2018 950 ± 3.1% 50% 43% 2% 5%
CBS News/YouGov September 10–14, 2018 453 47% 45% 3% 5%
University of Montana August 13–31, 2018 466 ± 4.5% 56% 32% 2% 9%
WPA Intelligence (R-NRSC) August 20–22, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 45% 47% 5%
Remington Research (R) July 8–10, 2018 2,581 ± 2.0% 49% 46% 5%
SurveyMonkey/Axios June 11 – July 2, 2018 974 ± 5.0% 55% 43% 3%
Gravis Marketing June 11–13, 2018 469 ± 4.5% 52% 44% 4%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Jon
Tester (D)
Generic
Republican
Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios February 12–March 5, 2018 1,484 ± 3.4% 42% 55% 3%

Results

Swing by county
Legend
  •   Democratic—+10-15%
  •   Democratic—+5-10%
  •   Democratic—+<5%
  •   Republican—+<5%
  •   Republican—+5-10%
  •   Republican—+10-15%
  •   Republican—+15-20%
  •   Republican—+20-25%
State House district results
State Senate district results
United States Senate election in Montana, 2018[80]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Jon Tester (incumbent) 253,876 50.33% +1.75%
Republican Matt Rosendale 235,963 46.78% +1.92%
Libertarian Rick Breckenridge 14,545 2.88% -3.68%
Total votes 504,384 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold

By county

From Secretary of State of Montana[81]

County Jon Tester
Democratic
Matt Rosendale
Republican
Rick Breckenridge
Libertarian
Total

Votes

# % # % # %
Beaverhead 1,876 38.31% 2,866 58.53% 155 3.17% 4,897
Big Horn 3,027 64.73% 1,558 33.32% 91 1.95% 4,676
Blaine 1,961 64.96% 982 32.53% 76 2.52% 3,019
Broadwater 1,071 32.84% 2,086 63.97% 104 3.19% 3,261
Carbon 2,680 44.17% 3,209 52.89% 178 2.93% 6,067
Carter 128 17.02% 602 80.05% 22 2.93% 752
Cascade 17,435 51.27% 15,566 45.77% 1,008 2.96% 34,009
Chouteau 1,275 47.99% 1,312 49.38% 70 2.63% 2,657
Custer 1,942 39.77% 2,762 56.56% 179 3.67% 4,883
Daniels 281 29.86% 631 67.06% 29 3.08% 941
Dawson 1,233 30.27% 2,700 66.29% 140 3.44% 4,073
Deer Lodge 2,892 68.27% 1,208 28.52% 136 3.21% 4,236
Fallon 281 21.80% 951 73.78% 57 4.42% 1,289
Fergus 1,964 33.90% 3,640 62.83% 189 3.26% 5,793
Flathead 19,652 41.15% 26,759 56.03% 1,349 2.82% 47,760
Gallatin 33,251 59.45% 21,248 37.99% 1,434 2.56% 55,933
Garfield 81 11.88% 571 83.72% 30 4.40% 682
Glacier 3,754 75.14% 1,153 23.08% 89 1.78% 4,996
Golden Valley 130 28.63% 303 66.74% 21 4.63% 454
Granite 695 38.76% 1,046 58.34% 52 2.90% 1,793
Hill 3,729 58.36% 2,434 38.09% 227 3.55% 6,390
Jefferson 2,954 43.23% 3,653 53.46% 226 3.31% 6,833
Judith Basin 388 32.58% 752 63.14% 51 4.28% 1,191
Lake 6,916 50.22% 6,491 47.13% 365 2.65% 13,772
Lewis and Clark 20,506 57.70% 14,106 39.69% 927 2.61% 35,539
Liberty 365 37.21% 586 59.73% 30 3.06% 981
Lincoln 2,902 31.08% 6,137 65.73% 298 3.19% 9,337
Madison 1,890 38.11% 2,898 58.44% 171 3.45% 4,959
McCone 227 22.06% 773 75.12% 29 2.82% 1,029
Meagher 319 32.68% 629 64.45% 28 2.87% 976
Mineral 785 38.14% 1,181 57.39% 92 4.47% 2,058
Missoula 41,688 67.62% 18,631 30.22% 1,332 2.16% 61,651
Musselshell 573 23.56% 1,743 71.67% 116 4.77% 2,432
Park 5,114 52.59% 4,357 44.81% 253 2.60% 9,724
Petroleum 58 18.59% 248 79.49% 6 1.92% 312
Phillips 577 27.71% 1,426 68.49% 79 3.79% 2,082
Pondera 1,176 43.80% 1,413 52.63% 96 3.58% 2,685
Powder River 203 20.86% 748 76.88% 22 2.26% 973
Powell 1,026 37.17% 1,641 59.46% 93 3.37% 2,760
Prairie 177 27.11% 450 68.91% 26 3.98% 653
Ravalli 9,156 39.13% 13,622 58.21% 623 2.66% 23,401
Richland 1,136 26.22% 3,017 69.64% 179 4.13% 4,332
Roosevelt 2,013 58.40% 1,346 39.05% 88 2.55% 3,447
Rosebud 1,511 44.88% 1,765 52.42% 91 2.70% 3,367
Sanders 2,071 33.65% 3,856 62.66% 227 3.69% 6,154
Sheridan 712 39.29% 1,017 56.13% 83 4.58% 1,812
Silver Bow 11,672 71.55% 4,246 26.03% 394 2.42% 16,312
Stillwater 1,501 30.86% 3,206 65.91% 157 3.23% 4,864
Sweet Grass 652 31.08% 1,372 65.40% 74 3.53% 2,098
Teton 1,290 40.86% 1,784 56.51% 83 2.63% 3,157
Toole 626 32.90% 1,208 63.48% 69 3.63% 1,903
Treasure 129 31.16% 279 67.39% 6 1.45% 414
Valley 1,545 39.80% 2,137 55.05% 200 5.15% 3,882
Wheatland 315 33.76% 586 62.81% 32 3.43% 933
Wibaux 140 25.83% 390 71.96% 12 2.21% 542
Yellowstone 32,225 46.53% 34,682 50.08% 2,351 3.39% 69,258
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

References

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  71. ^ "National Right to Life endorses Matt Rosendale against Jon Tester for U.S. Senate in Montana". NRL News Today. June 6, 2018.
  72. ^ Matt Rosendale. "Honored to be endorsed by the @USChamber in Billings today. The Trump Tax Cuts are working here in Montana- creating more jobs and putting more money back in your pocket!!! #MAGA #MontanaFirst #mtsen #mtpol". Twitter.
  73. ^ "Tea Party Express Endorses Matt Rosendale for U.S. Senate". Tea Party Express. October 23, 2017.
  74. ^ "AFP-Montana Launches Six Figure Ad Buy Thanking Matt Rosendale for Expanding Health Care Options". Americans for Prosperity. August 28, 2018. Archived from the original on August 30, 2018.
  75. ^ Christian, Peter (August 30, 2018). "MONTANA GUN GROUP GRADES AND ENDORSES POLITICAL CANDIDATES". NewsTalkKGVO.com. Archived from the original on August 30, 2018.
  76. ^ "Your Freedom is Under Attack! Vote On or Before November 6th!". nrapvf.org. NRA-PVF. Archived from the original on August 16, 2023. Retrieved August 16, 2023. The NRA Political Victory Fund (NRA-PVF) has endorsed Matt Rosendale for U.S. Senate in Montana.
  77. ^ Drake, Phil (September 12, 2018). "NRA endorses Gianforte and Rosendale, targets Tester". Great Falls Tribune. Archived from the original on September 22, 2018.
  78. ^ "NOM Endorses Candidates in Key Senate Midterm Contests". NOM Blog. October 17, 2018. Archived from the original on November 1, 2018. Retrieved October 29, 2018.
  79. ^ "Campaign finance data". Retrieved October 31, 2018.
  80. ^ "Montana Secretary of State". mtelectionresults.gov.
  81. ^ "Montana Secretary of State". electionresults.mt.gov. Retrieved August 20, 2021.

External links

Official campaign websites
This page was last edited on 10 March 2024, at 01:15
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