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538 members of the Electoral College 270 electoral votes needed to win | |||
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![]() 2024 U.S. presidential election | |
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The 2024 United States presidential election will be the 60th quadrennial presidential election, scheduled for Tuesday, November 5, 2024.[1] It will be the first presidential election to be run with population data from the 2020 census.
At present, general elections follow caucuses and primary elections held to determine the nominees of the major parties. The winner of the 2024 presidential election is scheduled to be inaugurated on January 20, 2025.
Background
Procedure
Article Two of the United States Constitution states that for a person to serve as president, the individual must be a natural-born citizen of the United States, at least 35 years old and a United States resident for at least 14 years. Candidates for the presidency typically seek the nomination of one of the various political parties of the United States, in which case each party develops a method (such as a primary election) to choose the candidate the party deems best suited to run for the position. The primary elections are usually indirect elections where voters cast ballots for a slate of party delegates pledged to a particular candidate. The party's delegates then officially nominate a candidate to run on the party's behalf. The presidential nominee typically chooses a vice presidential running mate to form that party's ticket, who is then ratified by the delegates at the party's convention.
The general election in November is also an indirect election, in which voters cast ballots for a slate of members of the Electoral College; these electors then directly elect the president and vice president.[2] If no candidate receives the minimum 270 electoral votes needed to win the election, a contingent election is held in which the House of Representatives will select the president from the three candidates who received the most electoral votes, and the Senate will select the vice president from the candidates who received the two highest totals. The presidential election will occur simultaneously with House of Representatives elections, Senate elections, and various state and local-level elections.
The presidential election will occur simultaneously with Senate elections (33 of 100 seats plus any special elections) and House of Representatives elections (all 435 seats). Gubernatorial and state legislative elections will also be held in several states. For details of these other races, see 2024 United States elections.
Effects of the 2020 Census
The election has been the early subject of attention by analysts and commentators, as it will be the first U.S. presidential election to occur after the reapportionment of votes in the United States Electoral College, which will follow the 2020 United States census.[3][4] This realignment of electoral college votes will remain consistent through the 2028 election. Reapportionment will be conducted again after the 2030 United States Census.[5]
The House will have redistributed the seats among the 50 states based on the results of the 2020 Census, and the states will conduct a redistricting cycle in 2021 and 2022, where Congressional and state legislative districts will be redrawn. In most states the governor and the state legislature conduct the redistricting (although some states have bipartisan or nonpartisan redistricting commissions). The party that wins a presidential election often experiences a coattail effect which also helps other candidates of that party win elections.[6] Therefore, the party that wins the 2020 presidential election could also win a significant advantage in the drawing of new Congressional and state legislative districts that would stay in effect until the 2032 elections. In 2020, although Joe Biden, the Democratic nominee, won the presidential election, the Democratic Party did not experience a coattail effect from the win and fail to flip any state legislature chambers, thus allowing the Republican Party to have redistricting control of many seats.[7][8] This would instead give the Republican Party the option to gerrymander new districts that would stay in effect until the next census, as was done by the REDMAP project after the 2010 Census.[9][10][8]
Issues unique to the 2024 election
COVID-19 pandemic
The COVID-19 pandemic, which as of January 2021[update], has killed over 350,000 people in the United States (more than 1 in 1,000 Americans),[11] has had significant economic and societal effects, which could pass on to the 2024 presidential election. The high visibility of governors in fighting the pandemic was viewed as having given them a boost in possible 2024 contention, in contrast to the significant advantage senators have had in recent cycles due to the nationwide status of modern media.[12][13]
2020 election nominees
President-elect Joe Biden and outgoing president Donald Trump are both eligible to run in 2024 as they have only been elected president once, in 2020 and 2016 respectively.
During his 2020 campaign, Biden was widely viewed as a "transition candidate" by the mainstream media, due to his political positions and age.[14][15] This led to significant media speculation about whether Biden will run in 2024.[16] The last time that an elected one-term incumbent president did not run for re-election was in 1880, when Rutherford B. Hayes did not seek re-election, while the last time that an incumbent president did not run for re-election when he was eligible to do so was either in 1968 when Lyndon B. Johnson decided not to stand for his party's nomination following the New Hampshire primary or in 1928 when Calvin Coolidge announced his intention not to stand for his party's nomination at a press conference in 1927 before the primaries started.[17]
If Trump decides to run in 2024, he would seek to become the second president after Grover Cleveland to serve non-consecutive terms. The last one-term president to campaign for a second non-consecutive term was Herbert Hoover, who after serving from 1929 to 1933 made runs in 1936 and 1940.[18] Trump's eligibility may change if the 2021 efforts to remove Donald Trump from office move forward, following the 2021 storming of the United States Capitol.
Candidates
Democratic Party
While Democrat Joe Biden is expected to be president heading into the 2024 election, he would be 82 years old at the conclusion of his first term. This has led to speculation that Biden will not seek a second term, which could cause a more competitive primary than would likely occur if Biden pursues his party's nomination as the incumbent president.[19] He had christened himself as a "transitional" candidate at multiple points on the 2020 campaign trail, raising suggestions in the media that Vice President-elect Kamala Harris would be the party front-runner in 2024.[20] However, he has expressed some interest in running anyway.
Potential candidates
Publicly expressed interest
As of January 2021, the following people have been subjects of significant speculation about their potential candidacy within the previous six months.
- Joe Biden, President-elect; Vice President of the United States (2009–2017); U.S. Senator from Delaware (1973–2009)[21]
- Andrew Yang, entrepreneur; former Presidential Ambassador for Global Entrepreneurship and Champion of Change under the Obama administration (2015–2017); candidate for president in 2020; candidate for Mayor of New York City in 2021[22][23]
Other potential candidates
As of January 2021, the following people have been subjects of significant speculation about their potential candidacy within the previous six months.
- Stacey Abrams, Georgia State Representative (2007–2017); Minority Leader of the Georgia House of Representatives (2011–2017)[24][25][26]
- Cory Booker, U.S. Senator from New Jersey (2013–present); Mayor of Newark, New Jersey (2006-2013)[27]
- Pete Buttigieg, Mayor of South Bend, Indiana (2012–2020)[28][29][30]
- Julián Castro, United States Secretary of Housing and Urban Development (2014-2017); Mayor of San Antonio (2009-2014)[31]
- Tulsi Gabbard, U.S. Representative from HI-2 (2013–2021)[32]
- Kamala Harris, Vice President-elect; U.S. Senator from California (2017–present); candidate for president in 2020[33][34]
- Gavin Newsom, Governor of California (2019–present); Lieutenant Governor of California (2011–2019)[35][36]
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, U.S. Representative from NY-14 (2019–present)[37][38]
Declined to be candidates
- Andrew Cuomo, Governor of New York (2011–present); U.S. Secretary of Housing and Urban Development (1997–2001)[39][40]
- Rahm Emanuel, mayor of Chicago (2011-2019); White House Chief of Staff (2009-2010); United States House of Representatives from IL-5 (2003-2009)[41]
- Michelle Obama, First Lady of the United States (2009–2017)[42][43][44]
- Deval Patrick, Governor of Massachusetts (2007-2015)[45]
- Bernie Sanders, U.S. Senator from Vermont (2007–present); U.S. Representative from VT-AL (1991–2007)[46][47]
Republican Party
Donald Trump was defeated by Joe Biden and is being impeached by The House of Representatives, awaiting trial in the senate by 2021. He will be eligible to run again in the 2024 presidential election if he is to be acquitted in his second impeachment in 2021 and has his political rights intact in the subsequent senate vote. If the senate decides for Trump to be eligible to run in 2024, he would be seeking to become the second president after Grover Cleveland to serve non-consecutive terms.[48][49]
Potential candidates
Publicly expressed interest
As of January 2021, individuals in this section have expressed an interest in running for president within the previous six months.
- Dan Bongino, commentator, radio host; Republican nominee for Senate in 2012, nominee for House of Representatives in 2014 and candidate in 2016[50]
- Chris Christie, Governor of New Jersey (2010–2018); candidate for president in 2016[51]
- Matt Gaetz, U.S. Representative from FL-01 (2017–present)[52][53]
- Nikki Haley, United States Ambassador to the United Nations (2017–2018); Governor of South Carolina (2011–2017)[54]
- Sean Hannity, talk show host on Fox News (1996–present) and radio show host (1989–present)[55]
- Candace Owens, author, commentator, and political activist[56]
- Donald Trump, President of the United States (2017–present)[57][58]
Other potential candidates
As of January 2021, the following people have been subjects of speculation about their potential candidacy within the previous six months.
- Greg Abbott, Governor of Texas (2015–present)[59][60]
- Charlie Baker, Governor of Massachusetts (2015–present)[61][62]
- Tom Cotton, U.S. Senator from Arkansas (2015–present)[63][64]
- Dan Crenshaw, U.S. Representative from TX-02 (2019–present)[65][66]
- Ted Cruz, U.S. Senator from Texas (2013–present); candidate for president in 2016[67][68]
- Josh Hawley, U.S. Senator from Missouri (2019–present)[69][70]
- Larry Hogan, Governor of Maryland (2015–present)[71][72]
- Will Hurd, U.S. Representative from TX-23 (2015–2021)[73]
- Mike Pence, Vice President of the United States (2017–present); Governor of Indiana (2013–2017)[74][75][76]
- Mike Pompeo, United States Secretary of State (2018–present); Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (2017–2018)[77][78]
- Paul Ryan, U.S. Representative from WI-1 (1999–2019); Speaker of the House of Representatives (2015–2019); 2012 vice presidential nominee[79]
- Mitt Romney, U.S. Senator from Utah (2019–present); Governor of Massachusetts (2003–2007); 2012 presidential nominee[80]
- Marco Rubio, U.S. Senator from Florida (2011–present); candidate for president in 2016[81][82]
- Ben Sasse, U.S. Senator from Nebraska (2015–present)[83][84]
- Rick Scott, U.S. Senator from Florida (2019–present); Governor of Florida (2011–2019)[85][86]
- Donald Trump Jr., businessman and eldest son of President Trump[87][88]
- Eric Trump, businessman and second son of President Trump[87][88]
Declined to be candidates
The individuals in this section have been the subject of speculation about their possible candidacy, but have publicly denied interest in running.
- Tucker Carlson, talk show host on Fox News (2009–present)[89][90]
- Ron DeSantis, Governor of Florida (2019–present); U.S. Representative from Florida (2013–2018)[85][91]
- Kristi Noem, Governor of South Dakota (2019–present); U.S. Representative from South Dakota (2011–2019)[92][93]
- Dan Patrick, Lieutenant Governor of Texas (2015–present)[94][95]
- Tim Scott, U.S. Senator from South Carolina (2013–present)[96][97][98]
- Ivanka Trump, Senior Advisor to the President of the United States (2017–present); eldest daughter of President Trump[99][100]
- Scott Walker, Governor of Wisconsin (2011–2019); candidate for president in 2016[101][102]
Green Party
Filed paperwork
- Howie Hawkins,[103] perennial candidate for Governor of New York; 2020 Green Party presidential nominee[104]
Potential candidates
- Jesse Ventura, Governor of Minnesota (1999–2003); Mayor of Brooklyn Park, Minnesota (1991–1995); 2020 Green Party of Alaska presidential nominee[105]
Independents, other third parties, or party unknown
Publicly expressed interest
- Brock Pierce, entrepreneur, actor, candidate for president in 2020[106][107]
- Kanye West, rapper, entrepreneur, candidate for president in 2020[108][109]
Primary election polling
Democratic Party
Nationwide polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Stacey Abrams |
Joe Biden |
Cory Booker |
Pete Buttigieg |
Andrew Cuomo |
Kamala Harris |
Amy Klobuchar |
Michelle Obama |
Beto O'Rourke |
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez |
Andrew Yang |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Inauguration of Joe Biden | ||||||||||||||||
McLaughlin & Associates/Newsmax | Nov 21–23, 2020 | 445 (LV) | ± 3.1% | – | – | 2% | 6% | 5% | 29% | 2% | 23% | – | 6% | – | 5%[b] | 23% |
Seven Letter Insight | Nov 10–19, 2020 | ~555 (V)[c] | ± 2.5% | – | 74% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 28%[d] | – |
2020 presidential election | ||||||||||||||||
McLaughlin & Associates | Nov 2–3, 2020 | 461 (LV) | – | – | – | 2% | 8% | 8% | 18% | – | 25% | – | 6% | – | 6%[e] | 28% |
Léger | Aug 4–7, 2020 | 390 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 6% | – | 6% | 16% | 21% | 19% | 6% | – | 6% | 9% | 8% | 3%[f] | – |
Republican Party
Nationwide polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Tucker Carlson |
Ted Cruz |
Nikki Haley |
Mike Pence |
Mitt Romney |
Marco Rubio |
Donald Trump |
Donald Trump Jr. |
Other | Undecided | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Inauguration of Joe Biden | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
F. Luntz | Jan 8–10, 2021 | 800 | – | 2% | 14% | 7% | 34% | 5% | 4% | – | 7% | 27%[g] | - | ||||||||||||
– | – | – | – | – | – | 65% | – | 35% | – | ||||||||||||||||
McLaughlin & Associates/Newsmax | Nov 21–23, 2020 | 442 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 1%[h] | 4% | 4% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 53% | – | 10%[i] | 15% | ||||||||||||
1%[j] | 7% | 6% | 20% | 5% | 3% | – | 20% | 16%[k] | 22% | ||||||||||||||||
Morning Consult/Politico | Nov 21–23, 2020 | 765 (RV) | ± 2% | – | 4% | 4% | 12% | 4% | 2% | 53% | 8% | 14%[l] | – | ||||||||||||
HarrisX/The Hill | Nov 17–19, 2020 | 599 (RV) | ± 2.26% | – | – | – | – | – | – | 75% | – | 25%[m] | – | ||||||||||||
Seven Letter Insight[1] | Nov 10–19, 2020 | ~555 (V)[n] | ± 2.5% | 2% | 6% | 7% | 19% | – | 4% | 35% | 11% | 7%[o] | – | ||||||||||||
Léger | Nov 13–15, 2020 | 304 (A) | ± 3.09% | 4%[h] | 7% | 4% | 22% | 8% | 5% | 45% | – | 7%[p] | – | ||||||||||||
6%[j] | 14% | 6% | 44% | 11% | 6% | – | – | 10%[q] | – | ||||||||||||||||
2020 presidential election | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
McLaughlin & Associates | Nov 2–3, 2020 | 449 (LV) | – | 2% | 5% | 8% | 30% | 5% | 2% | – | 20% | 8%[r] | 21% | ||||||||||||
YouGov/Washington Examiner | Oct 30, 2020 | – (RV)[s] | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 38% | – | 43%[t] | – | ||||||||||||
Echelon Insights | Aug 14–18, 2020 | 423 (LV) | – | 2% | 4% | 7% | 26% | – | 5% | – | 12% | 13%[u] | 29% | ||||||||||||
Léger | Aug 4–7, 2020 | 309 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 7% | 8% | 11% | 31% | 9% | 5% | – | 17% | 12%[v] | – |
Statewide polling
Florida primary
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Ron DeSantis |
Marco Rubio |
Rick Scott |
Undecided | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Inauguration of Joe Biden | |||||||||||||||
2020 presidential election | |||||||||||||||
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/News4JAX | Released Aug 15, 2019 | – (V)[w] | – | 37% | 26% | 18% | 19% |
Maine primary
In Maine's 2nd congressional district
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Ted Cruz |
Nikki Haley |
Mike Pence |
Marco Rubio |
Ivanka Trump |
Donald Trump Jr. |
Other | Undecided | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Redrawing of congressional districts after the 2020 redistricting cycle | |||||||||||||||
Inauguration of Joe Biden | |||||||||||||||
2020 presidential election | |||||||||||||||
SurveyUSA / FairVote | Jun 30 – Jul 6, 2020 | 604 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 12% | 12% | 30% | 6% | 7% | 11% | – | 21% |
New Hampshire primary
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump |
Other | Undecided | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Inauguration of Joe Biden | |||||||||||||||
University of New Hampshire | Nov 19–23, 2020 | 533 (RV) | ± 2.2% | 73% | 22%[x] | 5% |
North Carolina primary
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Ted Cruz |
Nikki Haley |
Mike Pence |
Mitt Romney |
Marco Rubio |
Donald Trump |
Other | Undecided | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Inauguration of Joe Biden | |||||||||||||||
University of Nevada Las Vegas Lee Business School / Bet US Racing | Nov 30–Dec 2, 2020 | 3% | 6% | – | 3% | 2% | 76% | 5% | 6% | ||||||
9% | 9% | 48% | 9% | 3% | – | 4% | 18% |
Timeline
See also
Notes
- ^ a b c d e f Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ Kirsten Gillibrand, John Hickenlooper, Tim Kaine, Ilhan Omar and Deval Patrick with 1%
- ^ 37% of the full sample of 1,500 2020 general election voters
- ^ "Biden should step down after one term" with 28%
- ^ John Hickenlooper with 3%; Kirsten Gillibrand, Tim Kaine and Deval Patrick with 1%
- ^ Kirsten Gillibrand with 3%
- ^ Would not vote for a Republican again with 7%; Ivanka Trump with 4%; Chris Christie with 3%; Ron DeSantis, "Krisi Noem", Mike Pompeo, and Rick Scott with 2%; Tom Cotton, Tulsi Gabbard, Josh Hawley, Larry Hogan, and Tim Scott with 1%; Greg Abbott and Kristi Noem with 0%
- ^ a b Standard VI response
- ^ John Kasich with 3%; Ron DeSantis with 2%; Tom Cotton, Kristi Noem, Mike Pompeo, Rick Scott and Tim Scott with 1%
- ^ a b If Donald Trump did not run
- ^ Ivanka Trump with 4%; John Kasich with 3%; Tom Cotton, Ron DeSantis, Kristi Noem and Tim Scott with 2%; Mike Pompeo with 1%; Rick Scott with 0%
- ^ Would not vote with 5%; "Someone else" with 3%; Josh Hawley, Kristi Noem, Rick Scott and Tim Scott with 1%; Charlie Baker and Larry Hogan with 0%
- ^ Donald Trump should not run for president in 2024
- ^ 37% of the full sample of 1,500 2020 general election voters
- ^ Tim Scott and Ivanka Trump with 2%; Tom Cotton, Josh Hawley and Ben Sasse with 1%
- ^ John Kasich, Mike Pompeo and Rick Scott with 2%; Rick Santorum with 1%
- ^ Mike Pompeo and Rick Santorum with 3%; John Kasich and Rick Scott with 2%
- ^ Ron DeSantis and John Kasich with 2%; Tom Cotton, Kristi Noem, Rick Scott and Tim Scott with 1%
- ^ Republican subsample of 1,200 registered voters
- ^ Respondents who think Trump should do something other than running for president in 2024 with 43%
- ^ "Someone else" with 3%; Tom Cotton, Dan Crenshaw, Lindsay Graham and John Kasich with 2%; Larry Hogan and Tim Scott with 1%; Josh Hawley, Ben Sasse and Elise Stefanik with 0%
- ^ Paul Ryan with 4%; Mike Pompeo and Ivanka Trump with 3%; Kevin McCarthy with 2%
- ^ Not yet released
- ^ 22% do not want Trump run in the 2024 presidential election
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