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2020 United States Senate election in Massachusetts

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

2020 United States Senate election in Massachusetts

← 2014 November 3, 2020 2026 →
 
Edward Markey, official portrait, 114th Congress.jpg
3x4.svg
Nominee Ed Markey Kevin O'Connor
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 2,357,809 1,177,765
Percentage 66.2% 33.1%

Massachusetts Senate Election Results by County, 2020.svg
County results
Markey:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%

U.S. senator before election

Ed Markey
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Ed Markey
Democratic

The 2020 United States Senate election in Massachusetts was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as elections to the United States Senate in other states, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. On September 1, incumbent Senator Ed Markey defeated U.S. Representative Joe Kennedy III in a competitive primary for the Democratic nomination and Kevin O'Connor defeated Shiva Ayyadurai for the Republican nomination. Markey went on to win the general election with 66.2% of the vote, and was thus re-elected to a second full term in a landslide.

Democratic primary

The state primary election took place on September 1, 2020.[1] Incumbent Senator Ed Markey was challenged by U.S. Representative Joe Kennedy III. Kennedy and Markey have similar political positions, though Markey is considered more liberal on the DW-Nominate scale.[2] An elected senator has not been defeated in a primary since Richard Lugar in 2012, and an elected Democrat has not been defeated since Joe Lieberman in 2006.[3]

Support from within the Democratic Party was divided. Markey received support from the DSCC, Senate minority leader Chuck Schumer, and DSCC chair Catherine Cortez Masto. He was also endorsed by key figures in the party's progressive wing, such as Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, fellow Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren, and the youth-led Sunrise Movement.[4] Kennedy received various endorsements from the House leadership, including Speaker Nancy Pelosi (which was noteworthy because speakers rarely endorse candidates in competitive primaries, especially challengers to incumbents),[5][6] House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer,[7] House Democratic Caucus chair Hakeem Jeffries,[8] House Intelligence Committee chair Adam Schiff,[9] and House Democratic Senior Chief Deputy Whip John Lewis.[10]

Markey's margin of victory of 10.8% was attributed to his unexpected strength among progressives and younger voters.[11][12] Kennedy's loss marked the first time a member of the Kennedy family had lost an election in Massachusetts.[13][14]

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Joe Kennedy III
U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Statewide politicians
State legislators
Local politicians
Individuals
Labor unions
Newspapers
Ed Markey
Vice Presidents
  • Al Gore, 45th Vice President of the United States (1993–2001), U.S. Senator from Tennessee (1985–1993)[77]
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Statewide politicians
State officials
Local officials
Individuals
Unions
Organizations
Newspapers

Polling

Joe Kennedy III vs. Ed Markey
Source of poll aggregation Dates administered Date updated Joe
Kennedy III
Ed
Markey
Undecided[a] Margin
RealClearPolitics July 31 – August 27, 2020 August 27, 2020 40.8% 52.0% 7.2% Markey +11.2
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Ed
Markey
Maura
Healey
Shannon
Liss-Riordan
Joe
Kennedy III
Seth
Moulton
Steve
Pemberton
Allen
Waters
Other Undecided
Emerson College/WHDH August 25–27, 2020 453 (LV) ± 4.6% 56% 44%
Data for Progress August 24–25, 2020 731 (LV) ± 4% 50% 43% 7%
Suffolk University August 23–25, 2020 500 (LV) 51% 41% 0%[c] 8%
UMass Lowell August 13–21, 2020 800 (LV) ± 4.1% 52% 40% 2%[d] 6%
SurveyUSA/Priorities for Progress August 12–16, 2020 558 (LV) ± 4.2% 44% 42% 15%
UMassAmherst/WCVB July 31 – August 7, 2020 362 (LV) ± 7.0% 51% 36% 1% 12%
JMC Analytics and Polling July 29–30, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 44% 41% 16%
Emerson College May 5–6, 2020 620 (LV) ± 3.9% 42% 58%
University of Massachusetts Lowell April 27 – May 1, 2020 531 (LV) ± 7.8% 42% 44% 4%[e] 10%
Suffolk University/Boston Globe/WBZ[1][2] February 26–28, 2020 465 (LV) ± 4.4% 36% 42% 1%[f] 21%
UMass Amherst/WCVB[3] February 18–24, 2020 400 (LV) ± 5.9% 43% 40% 4% 13%
UMass Lowell/YouGov February 12–19, 2020 450 (LV) ± 6.1% 34% 35% 23%
Jan 17, 2020 Liss-Riordan withdraws from the race
Dec 16, 2019 Waters withdraws from the race
Oct 14, 2019 Pemberton withdraws from the race
Sep 21, 2019 Kennedy announces his candidacy
Suffolk University/Boston Globe September 3–5, 2019 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 28% 42% 29%
26% <1% 35% 1% 0% 36%
Change Research August 23–25, 2019 808 (RV) ± 3.5% 25% 5% 42% 7%
Jul 23, 2019 Pemberton announces his candidacy
Suffolk University June 5–9, 2019 370 (LV) ± 5.1% 44% 5% 5% 45%
May 20, 2019 Liss-Riordan announces her candidacy[167]
May 19, 2019 Healey announces that she will not run
Apr 1, 2019 Waters announces his candidacy[168]
Dec 14, 2018 Moulton announces that he will not run[169]
YouGov/UMass Amherst November 7–14, 2018 635 (RV) 26% 27% 35%
636 (RV) 29% 25% 38%
Oct 5, 2018 Markey announces his candidacy
Suffolk University September 13–17, 2018 433 (LV) 24% 18% 45%

Debates

Results

Unofficial results by municipality, via WBUR as of September 2
Unofficial results by municipality, via WBUR as of September 2

Markey defeated his challenger, Joe Kennedy III. Markey won by running up big margins in Boston and its suburbs, and did well in Western Massachusetts, especially in college towns. Kennedy did well in the Cape Cod region and won many Southern municipalities, especially his native 4th district.[170] Kennedy is the first member of the Kennedy family to lose an election in Massachusetts.[171]

Democratic primary results[172]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Ed Markey (incumbent) 782,694 55.35%
Democratic Joe Kennedy III 629,359 44.51%
Democratic Write-ins 1,935 0.14%
Total votes 1,413,988 100.00%

Republican primary

The state primary election took place on September 1, 2020.[1]

Candidates

Nominee

  • Kevin O'Connor, attorney and partner at Hinckley Allen[173][174]

Eliminated in primary

Declined

Results

Unofficial results by municipality, via The New York Times as of September 5
Unofficial results by municipality, via The New York Times as of September 5
Republican primary results[172]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Kevin O'Connor 158,590 59.71%
Republican Shiva Ayyadurai 104,782 39.45%
Republican Write-ins 2,245 0.84%
Total votes 265,617 100.00%

Other candidates

Libertarian Party

Failed to qualify

Results

Libertarian primary results[172]
Party Candidate Votes %
Libertarian Other Write-ins 3,390 99.21%
Libertarian Vermin Supreme (write-in) 27 0.79%
Total votes 3,417 100.00%

Green Party

Withdrawn

  • Andre "Maha Visnu" Gray, Co-Chair of the Massachusetts Green-Rainbow Party, teacher, and businessman[174][181]

Independents

Write-in candidate

  • Shiva Ayyadurai (switched to this candidacy after losing Republican primary)[177]

Withdrawn

General election

The general election took place on November 3, 2020.[1]

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[184] Safe D October 29, 2020
Inside Elections[185] Safe D October 28, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[186] Safe D November 2, 2020
Daily Kos[187] Safe D October 30, 2020
Politico[188] Safe D November 2, 2020
RCP[189] Safe D October 23, 2020
DDHQ[190] Safe D November 3, 2020
538[191] Safe D November 2, 2020
Economist[192] Safe D November 2, 2020

Endorsements

Ed Markey (D)
Vice Presidents
  • Al Gore, 45th Vice President of the United States (1993–2001), U.S. Senator from Tennessee (1985–1993)[77]
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
  • Bill Keating, U.S. Representative (MA-09) (2013–present) (2011–2013 in 10th district)[80]
  • Joe Kennedy III, U.S. Representative (MA-04) (2013–2021)[193]
  • Ro Khanna, U.S. Representative (CA-17) (2017–present)[81]
  • Richard Neal, U.S. Representative (MA-01) (2013–present) (1989–2013 in 2nd district)[80]
  • Stephen F. Lynch, U.S. Representative (MA-08) (2013–present) (2001–2013 in 9th district)[80]
  • Carolyn Maloney, U.S. Representative (NY-12) (2013–present) (1993–2013 in 14th district) and Chair of the House Oversight Committee (2019–present)[82]
  • Jim McGovern, U.S. Representative (MA-02) (2013–present) (1997–2013 in 3rd district) and Chair of the House Rules Committee (2019–present)[80]
  • Jerry Nadler, U.S. Representative (NY-10) (2013–present) (1992–1993 in 17th district) (1993–2013 in 8th district) and Chair of the House Judiciary Committee (2019–present)[82]
  • Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, U.S. Representative (NY-14) (2019–present)[83]
  • Lori Trahan, U.S. Representative (MA-03) (2019–present)[80]
Statewide politicians
State officials
Local officials
Individuals
Unions
Organizations
Newspapers
Kevin O’Connor (R)
Statewide politicians

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Ed
Markey (D)
Kevin
O'Connor (R)
Other Undecided
MassInc October 23–30, 2020 929 (LV) 60% 29% 6%[g] 5%
YouGov/UMass Amherst October 14–21, 2020 713 (LV) 65% 26% 2%[h] 7%
Remington Research (R)[A] September 16–17, 2020 907 (LV) ± 3.3% 50% 40% 10%

Results

United States Senate election in Massachusetts, 2020[197]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Ed Markey (incumbent) 2,357,809 66.15% +4.28%
Republican Kevin O'Connor 1,177,765 33.05% -4.93%
Independent Shiva Ayyadurai (write-in) 21,134 0.59% N/A
Write-in 7,428 0.21% +0.06%
Total votes 3,564,136 100.0%
Democratic hold

See also

Notes

General
  1. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. ^ a b c d e f Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^ "Refused" with 0%
  4. ^ "Another candidate" with 2%
  5. ^ "Another candidate" with 4%
  6. ^ "Refused" with 1%
  7. ^ "Some other candidate" with 3%; "Refused" with 2%; would not vote with 1%
  8. ^ "Other" with 2%; would not vote with 0%
Partisan clients
  1. ^ Poll conducted for the O'Connor campaign.

References

  1. ^ a b c "Election calendar" (PDF). www.sec.state.ma.us. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
  2. ^ Rakich, Nathaniel (September 24, 2019). "Joe Kennedy Isn't Your Usual Upstart Primary Challenger". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved September 2, 2020.
  3. ^ Jacobson, Louis. "Markey vs. Kennedy: Welcome to the most unusual Senate primary in decades – Sabato's Crystal Ball". Retrieved August 30, 2020.. Arlen Specter, who was elected as a Republican but switched parties to Democratic, was defeated in 2010 during his first Democratic primary.
  4. ^ Clare Foran and Gregory Krieg. "Pelosi endorses Joe Kennedy in Massachusetts Senate primary against Ed Markey". CNN. Retrieved September 4, 2020.
  5. ^ Editor-at-large, Analysis by Chris Cillizza, CNN. "Why, exactly, did Nancy Pelosi endorse Joe Kennedy III?". CNN. Retrieved August 29, 2020.CS1 maint: extra text: authors list (link)
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Further reading

External links

Official campaign websites
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