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| Elections in California |
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The 2024 United States presidential election in California is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate.[1] California voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of California has 54 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]
The most populous state in the Union as well as one of the most progressive, California has voted Democratic in every presidential election starting in 1992, doing so by double digits in each of them but 2004 when John Kerry won it by 9.95%. Thus, California is predicted to go safely for incumbent Democrat Joe Biden in 2024, with vice president and California native Kamala Harris as his running mate.[3]
Primary elections
Democratic primary
The California Democratic primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. President Biden won all 424 pledged delegates with nearly 90% of the vote, the largest share of delegates awarded by any contest in the 2024 primaries.
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
- >90%
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Joe Biden (incumbent) | 3,207,687 | 89.1% | 424 | 424 | |
| Marianne Williamson | 146,356 | 4.1% | |||
| Dean Phillips | 100,284 | 2.8% | |||
| Armando Perez-Serrato | 43,105 | 1.2% | |||
| Gabriel Cornejo | 41,390 | 1.2% | |||
| "President" R. Boddie | 25,455 | 0.7% | |||
| Stephen P. Lyons | 21,062 | 0.6% | |||
| Eban Cambridge | 12,758 | 0.3% | |||
| Total (including write-ins): | 3,598,126 | 100.00% | 424 | 73 | 497 |
| Source:[4][5] | |||||
Republican primary
The California Republican primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. Former president Donald Trump was challenged by Nikki Haley, the only other major candidate remaining in the Republican primaries. Trump won the state in a Landslide, defeating Haley by 60 points and earning all 169 delegates.
The state was the site of the second Republican primary debate, held at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library on September 27, 2023.
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 1,946,680 | 79.2% | 169 | 169 | |
| Nikki Haley | 429,930 | 17.5% | |||
| Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) | 35,492 | 1.4% | |||
| Chris Christie (withdrawn) | 20,135 | 0.8% | |||
| Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) | 11,025 | 0.4% | |||
| Rachel Swift | 4,214 | 0.2% | |||
| David Stuckenberg | 3,884 | 0.2% | |||
| Ryan Binkley (withdrawn) | 3,552 | 0.1% | |||
| Asa Hutchinson (withdrawn) | 3,320 | 0.1% | |||
| Total: | 2,458,232 | 100.0% | 169 | 169 | |
| Source: [6][7] | |||||
Libertarian primary
Charles Ballay was the only candidate to qualify for the Libertarian Party primary ballot.[8] Chase Oliver later qualified as a write-in candidate.[9]
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| Charles Ballay | 21,906 | 98.6% |
| Chase Oliver (write-in) | 313 | 1.4% |
| Total: | 22,219 | 100.0% |
Green primary
Jill Stein, the Green Party's nominee for president in 2012 and 2016, was the only candidate on the California primary ballot, although she was followed by three write-in candidates.[8][9] Stein won the primary and earned all 59 of the state's delegates.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Delegates |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jill Stein | 15,801 | 99.96% | 59 |
| Matthew Pruden (write-in) | 3 | 0.02% | |
| Jorge Zavala (write-in) | 3 | 0.02% | |
| Davi (write-in) | 1 | 0.00% | |
| Total: | 15,808 | 100.0% | 59 |
Peace and Freedom primary
Three candidates successfully achieved ballot access in the Peace and Freedom Party non-binding presidential primary: Claudia de la Cruz, the nominee for the Party for Socialism and Liberation; Cornel West, who is running an independent campaign after withdrawing from the Green nomination; and Jasmine Sherman.[11] The party's presidential nominee will be chosen by the state central committee in August.[12]
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| Claudia de la Cruz | 6,430 | 47.0% |
| Cornel West | 5,455 | 39.9% |
| Jasmine Sherman | 1,795 | 13.1% |
| Total: | 13,680 | 100.0% |
American Independent Party
The sole candidate of the American Independent Party primary was James Bradley, who was simultaneously running for U.S. Senator as a Republican in the blanket primary held on the same day.[8][13] Andrew George Rummel also qualified as an official write-in candidate.[9]
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| James Bradley | 45,565 | 99.96% |
| Andrew George Rummel (write-in) | 16 | 0.04% |
| Total: | 45,581 | 100.0% |
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[14] | Solid D | December 19, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[15] | Solid D | April 26, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[16] | Solid D | June 29, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[17] | Solid D | December 14, 2023 |
| CNalysis[18] | Solid D | December 30, 2023 |
| CNN[19] | Solid D | January 14, 2024 |
Polling
- Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Institute of California | March 19–25, 2024 | 1,089 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 54% | 31% | 14% |
| Emerson College/Inside California Elections[A] | February 24–27, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 57% | 35% | 8% |
| UC Berkeley IGS | February 22–26, 2024 | 6,536 (LV) | ± 1.5% | 52% | 34% | 14% |
| Emerson College/Inside California Elections[A] | February 16–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 55% | 33% | 12% |
| Public Policy Institute of California | February 6–14, 2024 | 1,075 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 55% | 32% | 13% |
| Emerson College/Inside California Elections[A] | January 11–14, 2024 | 1,087 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 54% | 34% | 12% |
| UC Berkeley IGS | January 1–4, 2024 | 4,471 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 56% | 37% | 19% |
| Emerson College/Inside California Elections[A] | November 11–14, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 37% | 13% |
| Public Policy Institute of California | November 9–16, 2023 | 1,113 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 54% | 30% | 16% |
| UC Berkeley IGS | October 24–30, 2023 | 4,506 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 46% | 31% | 23% |
| Public Policy Institute of California | October 3–19, 2023 | 1,377 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 60% | 29% | 12% |
| Data Viewpoint | October 1, 2023 | 533 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 67% | 33% | – |
| Public Policy Institute of California | August 25 – September 5, 2023 | 1,146 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 57% | 26% | 17% |
| UC Berkeley IGS | August 24–29, 2023 | 6,030 (RV) | ± 2.0% | 51% | 31% | 18% |
| Public Policy Institute of California | June 7–29, 2023 | 1,089 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 57% | 31% | 12% |
| Public Policy Institute of California | May 17–24, 2023 | 1,062 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 58% | 25% | 17% |
| UC Berkeley/Los Angeles Times | February 14–20, 2023 | 5,149 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 59% | 29% | 12% |
- Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College/Inside California Elections[A] | February 24–27, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 51% | 32% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 8% |
| UC Berkeley IGS | February 22–26, 2024 | 6,536 (LV) | ± 1.5% | 40% | 28% | 11% | 3% | 2% | 16% |
| Emerson College/Inside California Elections[A] | February 16–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 31% | 8% | 1% | 1% | 10% |
| Emerson College/Inside California Elections[A] | January 11–14, 2024 | 1,087 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 47% | 32% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 13% |
| UC Berkeley IGS | January 1–4, 2024 | 4,471 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 47% | 31% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 11% |
| Emerson College/Inside California Elections[A] | November 11–14, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 31% | 8% | 1% | 2% | 15% |
- Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC Berkeley IGS | October 24–30, 2023 | 4,506 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 43% | 29% | 9% | 4% | 15% |
- Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Nikki Haley Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data Viewpoint | October 1, 2023 | 533 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 58% | 42% | – |
- Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC Berkeley/Los Angeles Times | February 14–20, 2023 | 5,149 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 56% | 34% | 10% |
- Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College/Inside California Elections[A] | November 11–14, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 38% | 15% |
- Gavin Newsom vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Gavin Newsom Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College/Inside California Elections[A] | November 11–14, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 53% | 35% | 13% |
- Gavin Newsom vs. Ron DeSantis
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Gavin Newsom Democratic |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Probolsky Research | August 4–9, 2022 | 900 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 55% | 38% | 7% |
See also
- United States presidential elections in California
- 2024 United States presidential election
- 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2024 United States elections
Notes
References
- ^ Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
- ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
- ^ "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved January 30, 2024.
- ^ "Certified List of Presidential Candidates for voter-nominated offices for the March 5, 2024, presidential primary election" (PDF). Secretary of State of California. December 28, 2023. Retrieved December 29, 2023.
- ^ "California Presidential Primary". Associated Press. March 5, 2024. Retrieved April 5, 2024.
- ^ "Certified List of Presidential Candidates for voter-nominated offices for the March 5, 2024, presidential primary election" (PDF). Secretary of State of California. December 28, 2023. Retrieved December 29, 2023.
- ^ "California Presidential Primary - Republican". California Secretary of State. March 13, 2024. Archived from the original on March 13, 2024. Retrieved March 13, 2024.
- ^ a b c "Certified List of Candidates" (PDF). California Secretary of State. December 28, 2023. Retrieved December 29, 2023.
- ^ a b c "Certified List of Presidential Write-In Candidates" (PDF). Office of the Secretary of State of California. February 23, 2024. Retrieved March 9, 2024.
- ^ a b c d "STATEMENT OF VOTE MARCH 5, 2024, PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY RESULTS" (PDF). California Secretary of State. April 12, 2024. Retrieved April 12, 2024.
- ^ "Certified List of Presidential Candidates for voter-nominated offices for the March 5, 2024, presidential primary election" (PDF). Secretary of State of California. December 28, 2023. Retrieved December 29, 2023.
- ^ Winger, Richard (December 3, 2023). "Peace & Freedom Presidential Primary Ballot Will Contain Three Names". Retrieved December 3, 2023.
- ^ Frisk, Garrett (September 22, 2023). "California Senate Candidate Roundup: September 22, 2023". Diamond Eye Candidate Report. Retrieved September 22, 2023.
- ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
This page was last edited on 13 April 2024, at 05:20