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| Elections in Nevada |
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The 2024 United States presidential election in Nevada is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Nevada voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Nevada has six electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1] Nevada is considered to be a crucial swing state in 2024, although no Republican presidential nominee has won Nevada since George W. Bush's narrow victory twenty years earlier (although, except in 2008, the wins were always narrow for Democrats).
Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden is running for reelection to a second term.[2] Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has gathered enough signatures to appear on the ballot, as he announced in March.[3]
Primary elections
Democratic primary
The Nevada Democratic primary was held on February 6, 2024.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |||
| Joe Biden (incumbent) | 119,758 | 89.3% | 36 | 36 | |
| None of These Candidates | 7,448 | 5.6% | |||
| Marianne Williamson | 4,101 | 3.1% | |||
| Gabriel Cornejo | 811 | 0.6% | |||
| Jason Palmer | 530 | 0.4% | |||
| Frankie Lozada | 315 | 0.2% | |||
| Armando Perez-Serrato | 264 | 0.2% | |||
| John Haywood | 241 | 0.2% | |||
| Stephen Lyons | 147 | 0.1% | |||
| Superpayaseria Crystalroc | 133 | 0.1% | |||
| Donald Picard | 124 | 0.1% | |||
| Brent Foutz | 93 | 0.1% | |||
| Stephen Alan Leon | 89 | 0.1% | |||
| Mark R. Prascak | 33 | <0.1% | |||
| Total: | 134,087 | 100% | 36 | 13 | 49 |
| Source: [4] | |||||
Republican nominating contests
Although the Nevada state government established a primary system in 2021, the state Republican Party chose to boycott the primary, scheduled for February 6, in favor of a party-organized caucus, scheduled for February 8. Votes from the primary will not be included in determining delegate allocation.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| None of These Candidates[5] | 50,763 | 63.3% | |||
| Nikki Haley | 24,583 | 30.6% | |||
| Mike Pence (withdrawn) | 3,091 | 3.9% | |||
| Tim Scott (withdrawn) | 1,081 | 1.4% | |||
| John Anthony Castro | 270 | 0.3% | |||
| Hirsh V. Singh (withdrawn) | 200 | 0.3% | |||
| Donald Kjornes | 166 | 0.2% | |||
| Heath V. Fulkerson | 95 | 0.1% | |||
| Total: | 80,249 | 100.00% | |||
| Source: [6] | |||||
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 59,982 | 99.1% | 25 | 1[a] | 26 |
| Ryan Binkley | 540 | 0.9% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total | 60,522 | 100.0% | 25 | 1 | 26 |
| Source: "2024 Presidential Caucus". Nevada Republican Party. Retrieved January 17, 2024. | |||||
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[7] | Tossup | December 19, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[8] | Tilt D | April 26, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[9] | Tossup | June 29, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[10] | Tossup | December 14, 2023 |
| CNalysis[11] | Tossup | December 30, 2023 |
| CNN[12] | Lean R (flip) | January 14, 2024 |
Polling
- Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wall Street Journal | March 17–24, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 48% | 8% |
| Emerson College | March 12–15, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 51% | – |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | March 8–15, 2024 | 447 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 44% | 46% | 10% |
| Noble Predictive Insights | February 27 – March 5, 2024 | 829 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 40% | 45% | 15% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | February 12–20, 2024 | 445 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 42% | 48% | 10% |
| Emerson College | February 16–19, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 46% | 14% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | January 16–21, 2024 | 457 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 40% | 48% | 12% |
| Emerson College | January 5–8, 2024 | 1,294 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 45% | 47% | 8% |
| Change Research/Future Majority (D) | December 3–7, 2023 | (RVs) | – | 40% | 44% | 14% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | November 27 – December 6, 2023 | 451 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 44% | 47% | 9% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | October 30 – November 7, 2023 | 437 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 43% | 46% | 11% |
| Emerson College | October 30 – November 4, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 39% | 46% | 14% |
| New York Times/Siena College | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 611 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 41% | 52% | 7% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | October 5–10, 2023 | 503 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 43% | 11% |
| CNN | September 29 – October 3, 2023 | 1,251 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 46% | 45% | 9% |
| Vote TXT | May 15–19, 2023 | 412 (RV) | – | 41% | 48% | 11% |
| Noble Predictive Insights | April 18–26, 2023 | 613 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 40% | 12% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R) | April 17–20, 2023 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 46% | 45% | 9% |
| OH Predictive Insights | January 30 – February 6, 2023 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 40% | 42% | 18% |
| Rasmussen Reports (R) | November 8–9, 2022 | 679 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 45% | 14% |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research | October 24–27, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 47% | 48% | 5% |
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[A] | October 13–17, 2022 | 707 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 37% | 49% | 14% |
| Emerson College | September 8–10, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 43% | 17% |
| Emerson College | July 7–10, 2022 | 2,000 (RV) | ± 2.1% | 40% | 43% | 17% |
| Blueprint Polling (D) | March 21–24, 2022 | 671 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 34% | 44% | 22% |
- Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wall Street Journal | March 17–24, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 33% | 37% | 15% | 2% | 2% | 11%[c] |
| Emerson College | March 12–15, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 36% | 41% | 9% | 1% | 2% | 11% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | March 8–15, 2024 | 447 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 36% | 42% | 11% | 1% | 1% | 11% |
| Noble Predictive Insights | February 27 – March 5, 2024 | 829 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 33% | 40% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 10% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | February 12–20, 2024 | 445 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 37% | 44% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 9% |
| Emerson College | February 16–19, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 34% | 44% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 14% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | January 16–21, 2024 | 457 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 31% | 43% | 12% | 1% | 2% | 11% |
| Emerson College | January 5–8, 2024 | 1,294 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 39% | 42% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 12% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | November 27 – December 6, 2023 | 451 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 37% | 42% | 11% | 2% | 1% | 7% |
- Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Times/Siena College | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 611 (LV) | ±4.4 | 31% | 38% | 23% | 8% |
- Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | October 30 – November 7, 2023 | 437 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 35% | 39% | 11% | 1% | 14% |
Hypothetical polling
- Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | February 16–19, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 39% | 48% | 13% |
| New York Times/Siena College | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 611 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 42% | 48% | 10% |
- Gavin Newsom vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Gavin Newsom Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | February 16–19, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 32% | 49% | 19% |
| New York Times/Siena College | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 611 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 42% | 48% | 10% |
- Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Nikki Haley Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Times/Siena College | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 611 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 37% | 46% | 17% |
- Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Times/Siena College | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 611 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 41% | 45% | 14% |
| Vote TXT | May 15–19, 2023 | 412 (RV) | – | 36% | 46% | 17% |
| Noble Predictive Insights | April 18–26, 2023 | 613 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 43% | 42% | 15% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R) | April 17–20, 2023 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 41% | 44% | 10% |
| OH Predictive Insights | January 30 – February 6, 2023 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 36% | 42% | 22% |
| Emerson College | July 7–10, 2022 | 2,000 (RV) | ± 2.1% | 38% | 43% | 19% |
- Gavin Newsom vs. Ron DeSantis
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Gavin Newsom Democratic |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Susquehanna Polling & Research | October 24–27, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 42% | 46% | 12% |
See also
- United States presidential elections in Nevada
- 2024 United States presidential election
- 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2024 United States elections
Notes
- Partisan clients
- ^ Poll sponsored by Capitol Resource Institute
References
- ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
- ^ Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC.
- ^ Dorn, Sara. "Why RFK Jr. Could Hurt Biden Against Trump—As He Gains Ballot Access In Key Swing State". Forbes. Retrieved March 7, 2024.
- ^ "Silver State 2024 Election Results - Presidential Preference Primary". Secretary of State of Nevada. Retrieved February 6, 2024.
- ^ Jackson, Hugh (January 21, 2024). "Nikki Haley: Second to none?". The Nevada Current. Retrieved January 25, 2024.
- ^ "Silver State 2024 Presidential Preference Primary Election Results". Secretary of State of Nevada. February 6, 2024. Retrieved March 16, 2024.
- ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
This page was last edited on 8 April 2024, at 17:14