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2022 in climate change

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

List of years in climate change
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This article documents events, research findings, scientific and technological advances, and human actions to measure, predict, mitigate, and adapt to the effects of global warming and climate change—during the year 2022.

YouTube Encyclopedic

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Transcription

Summaries

Delay means death

     Nearly half of humanity is living in the danger zone—now. Many ecosystems are at the point of no return—now. Unchecked carbon pollution is forcing the world's most vulnerable on a frog march to destruction—now. The facts are undeniable. This abdication of leadership is criminal. The world's biggest polluters are guilty of arson of our only home. ... Today's report underscores two core truths. First, coal and other fossil fuels are choking humanity. (Second,) investments in adaptation work. ... Delay means death.

António Guterres, Secretary-General of the United Nations[1]
28 February 2022

Measurements and statistics

"Vital Signs of the Planet" as presented by NASA on 31 December 2022[10]
Carbon emissions through 2022
Reported in 2022: wind and solar power reached a record 10% of global electricity in 2021.[22] Shown: 20 leading countries.[23]
  • 30 March: Ember's Global Electricity Review[23] reported that in 2021, wind and solar power reached a record 10% of global electricity, with clean power being 38% of supply, more than coal's 36%.[22] However, demand growth rebounded, leading to a record rise in coal power and emissions.[22]
  • 7 April: NOAA reported an annual increase in global atmospheric methane of 17 parts per billion (ppb) in 2021—averaging 1,895.7 ppb in that year—the largest annual increase recorded since systematic measurements began in 1983. The increase during 2020 was 15.3 ppb, itself a record increase.[24]
  • 12 April: a study of 2020 storms of at least tropical storm-strength published in Nature Communications concluded that human-induced climate change increased extreme 3-hourly storm rainfall rates by 10%, and extreme 3-day accumulated rainfall amounts by 5%.[25] For hurricane-strength storms, the figures increased to 11% and 8%.[25]
  • 26 April: The Global Carbon Budget 2021 (published in Earth System Science Data) concludes that fossil CO2 emissions rebounded by around +4.8% relative to 2020 emissions – returning to 2019 levels, identifies three major issues for improving reliable accuracy of monitoring, shows that China and India surpassed 2019 levels (by 5.7% and 3.2%) while the EU and the US stayed beneath 2019 levels (by 5.3% and 4.5%), quantifies various changes and trends, for the first time provides models' estimates that are linked to the official country GHG inventories reporting, and shows that the remaining carbon budget at 1. Jan 2022 for a 50% likelihood to limit global warming to 1.5 °C is 120 GtC (420 GtCO2) – or 11 years of 2021 emissions levels.[26]
  • 26 April: Scientists propose and preliminarily evaluate in Nature Reviews Earth & Environment a likely transgressed planetary boundary for green water in the water cycle, measured by root-zone soil moisture deviation from Holocene variability.[27][additional citation(s) needed] A study published one day earlier in Earth's Future integrates "green water" along with "blue water" into an index to measure and project water scarcity in agriculture for climate change scenarios.[28][29]
  • 27 April: the second edition of the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification's Global Land Outlook concluded that "humans have already transformed more than 70% of the Earth's land area from its natural state, causing unparalleled environmental degradation and contributing significantly to global warming".[30]
  • May: the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority reported that a March 2022 aerial survey of the park indicated that 91% of the coral reefs showed "some bleaching", with bleaching patterns "largely consistent with the spatial distribution of heat stress accumulation".[31]
12 May: Researchers identify the 425 biggest fossil fuel extraction projects globally, 40% of which haven't yet started extraction, that threaten climate change mitigation of global climate goals.

Natural events and phenomena

Each of 2022's costliest climate-related disasters cost at least $3 billion.[65]
  • 10 March: results of a 22-month study reported in Nature Portfolio's Scientific Reports indicated that several species of coral can survive and cope with future ocean conditions (temperature and acidity) consistent with then-current (late 2021) commitments under the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement, "provid(ing) hope for future reef ecosystem function globally".[66]
  • Reported in March: a coral bleaching event caused severe bleaching in 60 percent of the corals in Australia's Great Barrier Reef, in the reef's first such event occurring in a La Niña (cooling) year.[67]
  • 28 April: a study published in Nature stated that climate and land use change will produce novel opportunities for transmission of viruses between previously geographically isolated species of wildlife, so that species will aggregate in new combinations to drive new cross-species transmission of their viruses an estimated 4,000 times.[68] The study concluded that holding warming under 2 °C within the century would not reduce future viral sharing.[68]
  • 27 June: with a small catalog of unknown bacteria, researchers suggest, in a Nature Biotechnology study, work on microbes soon to be released from melting glaciers across the world to identify and understand potential threats in advance and understand extremophiles.[69][70]
  • 28 June: A review in Environmental Research: Climate elucidates the current state of climate change extreme event attribution science, concluding probabilities and costs-severity of links as well as identifying potential ways for its improvement.[71][72]
  • 4 July: scientists report in Nature Communications that heatwaves in western Europe are increasing "three-to-four times faster compared to the rest of the northern midlatitudes over the past 42 years" and that certain atmospheric dynamical changes can (partly) explain their increase.[73][74]
  • 25 August: a study published in Scientific Reports concluded that the 2019–2020 Australian wildfires caused an abrupt rise in global mean lower stratosphere temperatures and extended the duration of the Antarctic ozone hole, validating concerns that wildfires intensified by global warming would undo progress achieved through the Montreal Protocol in preserving the ozone layer.[75]
  • Reported 1 September: Swiss Re Institute's economic insights report stated that insured losses from floods doubled to $80 billion globally during 2011–2020 compared to the previous decade, while insurance penetration remained at about 18%.[76]
  • September: stating that climate change is already "an important threat", with "climate change and severe weather" endangering 34% of species, BirdLife International's State of the World's Birds 2022 reported that 49% of bird species worldwide have declining populations (only 6% are increasing).[77]

Actions, and goal statements

Science and technology

Political, economic, legal, and cultural actions

      If we don't do better at emissions reduction, there's no amount of money on this planet that could do enough to address the consequences. The dramas will be without end if we don't reduce our emissions. ...
     We've lost a year and we don't have a year to lose.

Frans Timmermans[110]
Executive VP, European Commission
for the European Green Deal
22 November 2022

  • 29 September: Global Witness reported that, in the past decade, more than 1,700 land and environmental defenders were killed, about one every two days.[111] Brazil, Colombia, Philippines, and Mexico were the deadliest countries.[111]
  • 27 October: the International Energy Agency's World Energy Outlook 2022 stated that Russia's invasion of Ukraine "can be a historic turning point towards a cleaner and more secure energy system thanks to the unprecedented response from governments around the world".[112]
  • 4 November: the Senate of the French Republic passed a bill requiring solar panels to be installed over outdoor parking lots having more than 80 places, with a 2026 deadline for larger lots and 2028 for others.[113]
  • 6–20 November: The 2022 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP27, in Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt) arrived at a "loss and damage" fund for countries most affected by climate change,[114] a development that the BBC said was hailed as a "historic moment".[115] However, the conference failed to commit[114] to "phasing out" fossil fuels (referring instead to "low emission and renewable energy"), and, according to the BBC, "faltered" on the 1.5 °C goal of the Paris Agreement.[115] A large presence of representatives from fossil fuel companies influenced the conference.[115]
  • 19 December: 190 countries (excluding the U.S. and Vatican) approved a United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity agreement to protect 30 percent of the planet's land and oceans by 2030, compared to 2022's protection of ~17 percent of land and ~8 percent of oceans.[116] The 2022 pact includes provisions to make targets measurable and to monitor countries' progress.[116]
  • December: sixteen communities in Puerto Rico (U.S.) filed a first of its kind lawsuit against oil and coal companies under the 1970 Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations (RICO) Act—originally intended to combat criminal enterprises like the mafia—alleging the companies conspired to deceive the public about the climate crisis.[117]
  • 2022: climate change protesters turned increasingly to disruptive tactics, risking arrest and widespread disapproval (e.g., glueing themselves to airport runways or museum artworks, throwing a can of soup at the glass protecting Vincent van Gogh’s "Sunflowers" painting).[118]
  • 24 August: the International Monetary Fund reported that global fossil fuel subsidies in 2022 were $7 trillion ($13 million per minute), amounting to 7.1% of GDP.[119]

Mitigation goal statements

Adaptation goal statements

  • February: The U.S. Army's Climate Strategy includes providing 100% carbon-pollution-free electricity for Army installations' needs by 2030, achieving 50% reduction from 2005 levels in GHG emissions from all Army buildings by 2032, attaining net-zero GHG emissions from Army installations by 2045, fielding an all-electric light-duty non-tactical vehicle fleet by 2027, fielding purpose-built hybrid-drive tactical vehicles by 2035 and fully electric tactical vehicles by 2050, achieving carbon-pollution free contingency basing by 2050, and attaining net-zero GHG emissions from all Army procurements by 2050.[122]
  • 1 November: a key finding of the United Nations Environment Programme's Adaptation Gap Report 2022 is that "evidence suggests that for developing countries, estimated adaptation costs–and likely adaptation financing needs–could be five to ten times greater than current international adaptation finance flows".[123]

Public opinion and scientific consensus

A 2022 study found that the public substantially underestimates the degree of scientific consensus that humans are causing climate change.[124] Studies from 2019–2021[125][126][127] found scientific consensus to range from 98.7–100%.
Research found that 80–90% of Americans underestimate the prevalence of support for major climate change mitigation policies and climate concern. While 66–80% Americans support these policies, Americans estimate the prevalence to be 37–43%. Researchers have called this misperception a false social reality, a form of pluralistic ignorance.[128]
National political divides on the seriousness of climate change consistently correlate with political ideology, with right-wing opinion being more negative.[129]

Projections

The amount by which greenhouse gas emissions are reduced is forecast to substantially affect the number of Winter Olympic Game venues that will have reliably cold conditions.[134]
  • January: the World Economic Forum's Global Risks Perception Survey 2021–2022 listed climate inaction failure, extreme weather, and biodiversity loss as the most severe risks on a global scale over the next 10 years.[135]
  • January: Deloitte published a report forecasting that failing to take sufficient action on climate change could result in economic losses to the US economy of $14.5 trillion(in present-value terms) over the next 50 years, and that decarbonization could catalyze transformational growth in the US economy that could result in $3 trillion added to the economy over that time period.[136]
  • 1 February: a study published in PLOS Climate projected a decline in global thermal refugia for coral reefs from 84% (2022) to 0.2% (at 1.5 °C of global warming), and 0% (at 2.0 °C of global warming), stating that management efforts on thermal refugia may only be effective in the short term.[137]
  • 15 February: NOAA's Global and Regional Sea Level Rise Scenarios said that relative sea level along the contiguous U.S. coastline is expected to rise on average as much over the next 30 years—25 to 30 centimetres (9.8 to 11.8 in)—as it has over the preceding 100 years.[138]
  • 23 February: the United Nations Environment Programme projected that climate change and land-use change will make wildfires more frequent and intense, with a global increase of extreme fires of up to 14% by 2030, 30% by 2050, and 50% by 2100.[139]
  • March: a study published in Urban Climate projected that the air temperature in Singapore would increase to 2.2-3.8 °C in the 2080s using global modelling results that was accommodated to city scale and taking into account the future urbanization projects.[140]
  • 30 March: an American Lung Association report stated that a national shift to 100 percent sales of zero-emission passenger vehicles (by 2035) and medium- and heavy-duty trucks (by 2040), coupled with renewable electricity, would generate over $1.2 trillion in public health benefits and avoid up to 110,000 premature deaths.[141]
  • 28 April: a study published in Science cited ocean warming and oxygen depletion, and concluded that "under business-as-usual global temperature increases, marine systems are likely to experience mass extinctions on par with past great extinctions based on ecophysiological limits alone", with polar species at highest risk.[142]
  • 9 May: a World Meteorological Organization update stated that there is a 50:50 chance of the annual average global temperature temporarily reaching 1.5 °C above pre-industrial level for at least one of the ensuing five years; in 2015 that probability was estimated as "close to zero".[143]
  • 16 May: a study published in GeoHealth concluded that eliminating energy-related fossil fuel emissions in the United States would prevent 46,900–59,400 premature deaths each year and provide $537–$678 billion in benefits from avoided PM2.5-related illness and death.[144]
  • 20 May: a study published in One Earth concluded that rising temperatures will continue to shorten sleep, primarily through delayed onset, increasing the probability of insufficient sleep and impacting human functioning, productivity, and health.[145] Those living in warmer climates were found to lose more sleep per degree of temperature rise, and elderly, women, with residents of lower-income countries being most impacted.[145]
  • 12 August: a study published in Science Advances stated that climate-caused changes in atmospheric rivers affecting California has already doubled the likelihood of megafloods—which can involve 100 inches (250 cm) of rain and/or melted snow in the mountains per month, or 25 to 34 feet (7.6 to 10.4 m) of snow in the Sierra Nevada—and runoff in a future extreme storm scenario is predicted to be 200 to 400% greater than historical values in the Sierra Nevada.[146]
  • 25 August: a study published in Communications Earth & Environment projected that, even if global warming is constrained to within 2.0 °C, by 2100 the "extremely dangerous"[Note 2] heat index threshold 124 °F (51 °C) is likely to be exceeded on more than 15 days each year in sub-Saharan Africa, parts of the Arabian peninsula, and much of the Indian subcontinent.[147] Exposure to "dangerous" (exceeding 103 °F (39 °C)) heat index levels are projected to likely increase by 50–100% across much of the tropics and increase by a factor of 3–10 in many regions throughout the midlatitudes.[147]
  • 29 August: a study published in Nature Climate Change projected, based on 2000–2019 climatology, that 3.3% of the Greenland ice sheet will melt, resulting in 274 millimetres (10.8 in) of global sea level rise—with "most" of the rise within the 21st century—regardless of how well greenhouse gas release is limited.[148]
  • 9 September: A study published in Science describes how multiple tipping elements in the climate system could be triggered if global warming exceeds 1.5 °C.[149][150][151]
  • 26 October: the United Nations' synthesis report of nationally determined contributions estimated that the best estimate of peak temperature in the twenty-first century is 2.1–2.9 °C.[152] Assuming full implementation of NDCs, including all conditional elements, the best estimate for peak global mean temperature is 2.1–2.4 °C.[152]
  • 27 October: the United Nations Environment Programme's Emissions Gap Report 2022 projected that "policies currently in place with no additional action are projected to result in global warming of 2.8 °C over the twenty-first century. Implementation of unconditional and conditional NDC scenarios reduce this to 2.6 °C and 2.4 °C respectively".[153]
  • 7 November: Scientists warned in Ecological Monographs about summarized effects of climate change on insects, among other novel stressors,[154] which may "drastically reduce our ability to build a sustainable future based on healthy, functional ecosystems", providing several recommended mitigation options.[155][156]
  • 2 December: the International Energy Agency projected that, in large part because of the 2022 global energy crisis, renewable energy will surpass prior predictions, and will become the largest source of global electricity generation by early 2025, surpassing coal.[157]

Significant publications

  • IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, Working Group II:
  • Working Group II (27 February 2022). "Climate Change 2022 / Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability / Summary for Policymakers" (PDF). IPCC.ch. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change. Archived (PDF) from the original on 28 February 2022. (36 pages; 10 MB)
  • Working Group II (27 February 2022). "Technical Summary" (PDF). IPCC.ch. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Archived (PDF) from the original on 28 February 2022. Accepted, subject to final edits (96 pages; 20 MB)
  • Working Group II (27 February 2022). "Climate Change 2022 / Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability (full report)" (PDF). IPCC.ch. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Archived (PDF) from the original on 28 February 2022. (3675 pages; 280 MB)
  • IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, Working Group III:

See also

Notes

  1. ^ From Rennert et al.: "The social cost of carbon dioxide (SC-CO2) measures the monetized value of the damages to society caused by an incremental metric tonne of CO2 emissions and is a key metric informing climate policy.
  2. ^ Per Vargas Zeppetello et al.: A heat index above 124°F is classified as "extremely dangerous" and can lead to heat stroke, a condition with a high mortality-case ratio that can lead to death within a matter of hours.

References

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