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Opinion polling on a United Ireland

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Ireland map; Republic of Ireland, Northern Ireland and respective capitals
Ireland map; Republic of Ireland, Northern Ireland and respective capitals
Ireland map; Republic of Ireland, Northern Ireland and respective capitals
Satellite image of Ireland, nicknamed "The Emerald Isle"

This page lists opinion polling for a United Ireland also known as a New Ireland.

In Northern Ireland

The Good Friday Agreement states that "the Secretary of State" should call a referendum "if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland."[1]

Date Polling organisation/client Sample size Yes No Undecided Will not
vote 		Lead Excluding don't know Notes
9-12 February 2024 LucidTalk[2] 3,207 39% 49% 11% 1% 10% 44% to 56% "If there was a referendum on the constitutional position of Northern Ireland within the week, how would you vote?"
November 2023 ARINS/ The Irish Times[3][4] 1,019 30% 51% 15% 5% 21% 37% to 63%
26 October - 3 November 2023 The Institute of Irish Studies/Social Market Research[5] 1,074 31% 49% 9% N/A 18% 38% to 62% "I would vote for a united Ireland tomorrow"
17-30 June 2023 The Institute of Irish Studies/Social Market Research[6] 1,017 36.1% 47.0% 10% 6.2% 10.9% 43% to 57% "I would vote for a united Ireland tomorrow"
5 September – 20 November 2022 Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey[7][8] 1,405 35% 47% 10% 4% 12% 43% to 57% "Suppose there was a referendum tomorrow on the future of Northern Ireland and you were being asked to vote on whether Northern Ireland should unify with the Republic of Ireland. Would you vote 'yes' to unify with the Republic or 'no'?"
17 August 2022 – 15 October 2022 ARINS/The Irish Times[9][10] 1,009 27% 50% 23% 23% 35% to 65% "If there was a referendum asking people whether they want Northern Ireland to remain in the United Kingdom or unify with the Republic of Ireland, how would you vote in that referendum?"
August 2022 LucidTalk[11] 3,384 41% 48% 11% 7% 46% to 54% "If there was a referendum (i.e. a 'Border poll') on the constitutional position of Northern Ireland today, would you vote for Northern Ireland to be.."
11-26 March 2022 University of Liverpool/The Irish News[12] 1,000 30.0% 45.3% *18.7% 6% 15.3% 40% to 60% "I would vote for a united Ireland tomorrow"*Neither Agree/Disagree
15-18 November 2021 Lord Ashcroft[13] 3,301 41% 49% 8% 8% 46% to 54% "If there was a referendum (i.e a 'border poll') on the constitutional position of Northern Ireland tomorrow, how would you vote?"
October-December 2021 Life & Times[14] 1,397 34% 48% 11% 4% 14% 41% to 59% "If there was a referendum tomorrow, how would you vote?"
October 2021 University of Liverpool[15] 1,002 29.8% 58.6% 9.1% 2.5% 28.8% 33% to 67% "If there was a border poll tomorrow, would you vote for Northern Ireland to stay as part of the United Kingdom or for a United Ireland?"
20-23 August 2021 LucidTalk[16] 2,403 42% 49% 9% 0% 7% 46% to 54% "If there was a referendum (i.e. a ‘Border poll’) on the constitutional position of Northern Ireland today, would you vote for Northern Ireland to be.."
June 2021 Life & Times[17][18] 30% 53% 9% 5% 23%
May 2021 Belfast Telegraph/Kantar[19] 35% 44% 21% 9%
April 2021 LucidTalk[20] 43% 49% 8% 6%
February 2021 Savanta ComRes/ITV News[21] 36% 49% 15% 13%
January 2021 Lucid Talk/The Sunday Times[22] 42.3% 46.8% 10.7% 4.5%
Brexit transition period ends and UK leaves the European Union, 31 December 2020
February 2020 LucidTalk[23] 45% 47% 8% 2%
February 2020 Liverpool University[24] 29% 52% 19% 23%
September 2019 Lord Ashcroft[25] 1,542 46% 45% 9% 1% "If there was a "border poll" tomorrow, how would you vote?"
March 2019 Irish Times/Ipsos Mori[26] 32% 45% 23% 13%
June 2018 Lord Ashcroft[27] 44% 49% 7% 5%
June 2018 NILT[28][29] 22% 55% 10% 12% 33%
May 2018 LucidTalk/YouGov/BBC[30][31][32] 42% 45% 12.7% 0.2% 3%
May 2018 ICM 21% 50% 18.9% 9.7% 29%
October 2017 LucidTalk[33][34] 34% 55% 9.8% 1.1% 21%
July 2017 ESRC[35] 27% 52% 21% 25%
August 2016 Ipsos Mori[36] 22% 63% 13% 2% 41% Voters aged 18+
Brexit referendum, 23 June 2016
Scottish independence referendum, 18 September 2014
January 2013 Spotlight[37] 17% 65% 5% 12% 48% Voters aged 18+
November 2003 Millward Brown Ulster[38] 1058 26% 61% 13% 35% "Should Northern Ireland be part of all-Ireland state or be part of UK?" (18+)
October-mid January 2002 NI Life and Times Survey[39] 1800 27% 54% 10% 6% 27% "Suppose there was a referendum tomorrow on the future of Northern Ireland and you were being asked to vote on whether Northern Ireland should unify with the Republic of Ireland. Would you vote 'yes' to unify with the Republic or 'no'?"
May 2001 Millward Brown Ulster[38] 27% 58% 15% 31% "Should Northern Ireland be part of all-Ireland state or be part of UK?" (18+)
June 1998 Millward Brown Ulster[38] 25% 63% 12% 38% "Should Northern Ireland be part of all-Ireland state or be part of UK?" (18+)
Belfast Good Friday Agreement is signed, 10 April 1998

In the future

Date Polling organisation/client Sample Yes No Undecided Will not
vote 		Lead Non standard question
9-12 February 2024 LucidTalk[2][40] 3,207 52% 44% - - 8% At some point in the future
17-30 June 2023 The Institute of Irish Studies/Social Market Research[6] - 40% 36% - - 4% In 15-20 years
August 2022 LucidTalk[11] 3,384 52% 44% 4% - 8% If a referendum was held in 15–20 years time.
11-26 March 2022 University of Liverpool/The Irish News[12] 1,000 33.4% 41.5% *17.9%* 7.6% 8.1% In 15-20 years

*"Neither Agree/Disagree"

October 2015 RTÉ BBC NI Cross Border Survey : ROI + NI[41] 1,407 30% 43% 27% - 13% "...in your lifetime?"

Healthcare

Date Polling organisation/client Yes No Undecided Will not
vote 		Lead Non standard question
October 2020 LucidTalk[42] 35% 34% 26% 1% Reference to healthcare provision

By religion and age and region

2024 poll

Answer[2] Age band
18–24 25–34 35-44 45–54 55-64 65+
Yes (to a United Ireland) 48% 45% 44% 42% 28% 36%
No 43% 41% 42% 54% 64% 48%
Don't know 9% 14% 13% 4% 8% 13%
Lead 5% 4% 2% 12% 36% 12%

2022 poll

Answer[8] Age band Religion
18–24 25–34 35-44 45–54 55-64 65+ No religion Catholic Protestant
Yes (to a United Ireland) 43% 45% 36% 34% 33% 26% 36% 67% 8%
No 24% 37% 38% 51% 51% 60% 42% 14% 81%
Don't know 22% 11% 10% 11% 8% 7% 11% 12% 7%

2016 poll

In 2016 an Ipsos MORI poll asked "If there was a referendum on the border tomorrow would you:" and the answers for different regions of Northern Ireland were as follows,[43]

Belfast

City

Greater

Belfast

Down Armagh Tyrone/

Fermanagh

Derry Antrim
Vote to stay in the United Kingdom 65% 77% 57% 50% 51% 53% 72%
Vote for Northern Ireland to join the Republic of Ireland outside the United Kingdom 17% 10% 27% 41% 28% 28% 17%
Don't know 17% 10% 13% 7% 19% 16% 6%
Would not vote 0% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 6%

The same poll recorded answers from people in different age groups as follows,[44]

Age band 18–24 25–34 35–44 45–54 55–64 65+
Vote to stay in the United Kingdom 67% 63% 51% 57% 60% 77%
Vote for Northern Ireland to join the Republic of Ireland outside the United Kingdom 19% 19% 30% 28% 22% 14%
Don't know 12% 15% 18% 13% 13% 7%

Answers from people of different religious backgrounds were as follows,[43]

Answer Community background
Protestant Catholic Neither
Vote to stay in the United Kingdom 88% 37% 51%
Vote for Northern Ireland to join the Republic of Ireland outside the United Kingdom 5% 43% 15%
Don't know 5% 17% 30%

2014 poll

An opinion poll of 1,089 people conducted by LucidTalk in 2014 around the time of the Scottish referendum posed several questions. On the question of whether or not there should be a border poll, 47% said "yes", 37% "no" and 16% "don't know".[45] On the question, "If a referendum on Irish Unity was called under the Good Friday Agreement would you vote: Yes for unity as soon as possible, Yes for unity in 20 years, or No for Northern Ireland to remain as it is", the results were as follows.[45][46]

Answer All

persons

Religion Age band
Protestant Catholic 18–24 25–44 45–64 65+
Yes, for unity as soon as possible 5.7% 1.8% 9.8% 12.2% 5.5% 3.8% 3.3%
Yes, for unity in 20 years 24.0% 9.6% 39.5% 27.8% 26.6% 23.0% 19.7%
No for Northern Ireland to remain as it is 44.1% 57.8% 20.7% 36.6% 38.0% 45.6% 53.9%
No opinion/would not vote 26.3% 30.8% 30.1% 23.4% 29.9% 27.6% 23.0%

Brexit scenario polls

Date Polling organisation/client Sample Yes No Undecided Will not
vote 		Lead Non standard question
October-November 2018 LucidTalk[47] 1,334 48% 48% 4% - Even If Northern Ireland left the EU on terms negotiated between the UK government and the EU
October-November 2018 LucidTalk[47] 1,334 55% 42% 3% - 13% No deal scenario
October-November 2018 LucidTalk[47] 1,334 29% 60% 11% - 31% If the UK remained an EU member state
September 2018 OFOC/Deltapoll[48] 52% 39% 9% 13% "Imagine now that the UK decided to LEAVE the EU..."
December 2017 LucidTalk[49][50] 48% 45% 6% 0.7% 3% In the context of a hard Brexit

In the Republic of Ireland

Date Polling organisation/client Sample size Yes No Undecided Will not
vote 		Lead Notes
November 2023 ARINS/ The Irish Times[3][4] >1,000 64% 16% 13% 5% 48%
August & September 2022 The Irish Times/Arins Project[51] 1,000 voters in Northern Ireland and the Republic 66% 16% 13% 5% 50%
December 2021 Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI[52] 1,200[53] 62% 16% 13% 8% 46%
November 2021 Business Post/Red C[54] 1,001 60% 25% 15% 35%
March 2021 RTÉ Claire Byrne Live/Amárach Research[55] 1,000 53% 19% 28% 34% "Is it time for a united Ireland?"
May 2019 RTÉ/REDC[56] Randomly selected sample of 3,016 eligible voters outside 156 polling stations 65% 19% 15% 46%
January 2019 RTÉ Claire Byrne Live/Amárach Research[57] 1,000 54% 21% 25% 33% "Are you in favour of a united Ireland"
March 2017 RTÉ Claire Byrne Live/Amárach Research[58] 1,200 49% 29% 22% 20%
December 2016 RTÉ Claire Byrne Live/Amárach Research[59][60] 46% 32% 22% 14% "Is it time to have a united Ireland"

54% aged 25-34 said yes

October 2010 Red C/Sunday Times[61] 1,005 57% 22% 21% 35%

Short to medium term

"In the short to medium term, do you think Northern Ireland should..." (October 2015)[62] Proportion
Remain part of the UK, with direct rule from Westminster 9%
Remain part of the UK, with a devolved assembly and Executive in Northern Ireland (the current situation) 35%
Unify with the rest of Ireland 36%
Other 1%
None of these 2%
Don't know 17%

Long term

Date Polling organisation/client Sample size Yes No Undecided Lead Notes
February 2019 RTÉ Claire Byrne Live/Amárach Research[63] 1,000 63% 18% 19% 45% "in their lifetime"
October 2015 RTÉ BBC NI Cross Border Survey : ROI + NI[41] 1,407 66% 14% 20% 42% "in your lifetime?"

When asked about tax

"Would you be in favour or against a united Ireland if it meant ..." (October 2015)[64] You would have to pay less tax There would be no change in the amount of tax you pay You would have to pay more tax
In favour of a united Ireland 73% 63% 31%
Against a united Ireland 8% 14% 44%
Don't know 18% 24% 25%

In the United Kingdom

A 2019 poll by Ipsos Mori and King's College London asked people in Britain (England, Scotland, and Wales): "If there were to be a referendum in Northern Ireland on its future, would you personally prefer Northern Ireland to choose to stay in the UK or leave the UK and join the Republic of Ireland?" The responses revealed that 36% wanted Northern Ireland to stay in the UK, 19% wanted it to join the Republic, 36% had no preference, and 9% were undecided.[65] It further revealed that support for Northern Ireland remaining in the UK was highest among those who intended to vote Conservative (49%) compared to 35% for Labour voters and 31% for Liberal Democrat voters.[65]

A 2023 state of the union poll asking if Ireland should unite showed that respondents from Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales and England all had net positive views on the unification. On a scale between -10 to definitely remain in the UK to +10 to definitely unite Ireland; the people of Scotland had a net score of +1.9, England at +0.9, Wales at +0.6, and those in Northern Ireland at +0.6 also.[66]

See also

References

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  2. ^ a b c "More people in NI would vote to stay part of UK if border poll was called". 2024-02-18. ISSN 0307-1235. Retrieved 2024-02-18.
  3. ^ a b "Irish Times/ARINS poll: Support for United Ireland is strong, but debate on costs and compromises to come first". The Irish Times. Retrieved 2023-12-05.
  4. ^ a b "NI voters would decisively reject Irish unity in border poll, new survey suggests". BelfastTelegraph.co.uk. 2023-12-02. ISSN 0307-1235. Retrieved 2023-12-05.
  5. ^ "Restoring the Assembly?" (PDF).
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  10. ^ "North and South methodology: How we took the pulse of Ireland on unity". The Irish Times. Retrieved 2022-12-17.
  11. ^ a b O'Brien, Stephen (21 August 2022). "Majority in North back Irish unity within next 20 years". The Times. ISSN 0140-0460. Retrieved 21 August 2022.
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