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Why the UK Election Results are the Worst in History.
2019 General Election Briefing from The Wales Governance Centre
Transcription
Hello Internet
The UK had an election we need to talk about
because after the debates finished, the people
voted and the ballots tallied the results
were this:
But parliament ended up looking like this:
Which isn't, exactly, representative. And
by not exactly, I mean at all.
Red earned 30% of the vote and 36% of the
seats, which is sort of close, but the rest
is madness: Orange earned 8% of the vote but
got one eighth of that while Yellow's 5% just
about doubled, and purple earned 13% and got
squat.
Meanwhile blue's 37% of the people booted
to 51% of the seats in parliament. The blue
boost is even bigger when you consider that
51% of the seats gives basically 100% the
control.
How'd this happen?
In the UK -- national elections aren't really
national, they're a bunch of local elections.
The UK is divided into constituencies, each
of which elects one member of parliament (M.P.)
to represent them. This local / national divide
is where the trouble begins.
Imagine a parliament with just three constituencies,
and it's easy to see how it wouldn't always
align with citizens. Some people think this
sort of result is fine -- “it's all *about*
winning local elections,” they’ll say.
“Each M.P. represents their constituency.”
And while the imbalance in this example is
dumb, but it's the same problem in the real
election and this same argument is given,
but there are two more problems with it in
reality land.
1) Few citizens have any idea who their MP
is, they just know what party they voted for
-- what party they want to represent their
views on the national level. And pretending
like it's a local election is a bit disingenuous.
-- in practice it's an election for now the
nation will run -- not really for who is going
to represent a tiny part of it.
and even if it were
2) The individual constituencies are worse
at representing their citizens than parliament.
Indulge this spreadsheet-loving nerd for a
moment, will you?
The difference between what a party earned
at the polls and what they got in parliament
is the amount of misrepresentation error.
If we calculate all the errors for all the
parties and add them up we can say the Parliament
as a whole has 47% percentage points of misrepresentation
error. That sounds bad looks like a utopian
rainbow of diversity compared to any local
election because the local elections have
*one* winner. Out of the 650 constituencies
647 have a higher representation error than
parliament. These are the only three that
don't and they're really unusual for having
so many of a single kind of voter in one place.
Most places look the The Wrekin which is dead
in the middle a mere one-hundred and one points
off. Note that the winning candidate didn't
reach a majority here. Which means more than
half of constituencies elected their MP with
a minority of voters.
The worst is Belfast South at the bottom of
the list. Hilariously unrepresentative. Less
than a quarter of the voters get to speak
for the entire place in parliament. This is
the the lowest percentage an M.P. has ever
been elected by.
So when people argue that the UK election
is a bunch of local elections 1) people don't
act like it, and 2) It's even more of an argument
that the elections are broken because they're
worse on this level.
These local elections are unrepresentative
because of the terrible 'First Past the Post'
voting system -- which I have complained mightily
about and won't repeat everything here -- go
watch the video -- but TL;DR it only 'works'
when citizens are limited to two choices.
Voting for any party except the biggest makes
it more likely the biggest will win by a minority
-- which is exactly what happened.
That citizens keep voting for smaller parties
despite knowing the result is against their
strategic interests demonstrates the citizenry
wants diverse representation -- but that successes
is the very thing that's made this the most
unrepresentative parliament in the history
of the UK.
People happy with the results argue the system
is working fine -- of course they do. Their
team won.
Government isn't a sport where a singular
'winner' must be determined. It's a system
to make rules that everyone follows and so,
we need a system where everyone can agree
the process is fair even if the results don't
go in their favor.
If you support a system that disenfranchises
people you don't like and turbo-franchises
people you do -- then it doesn't look like
you sport representative democracy, it looks
like you support a kind of dictatorship light.
Where a small group of people (including you)
makes the rules for everyone.
But as it is now, on election day the more
people express what they want the worse the
system looks which makes them disengaged at
best or angry at worst and GEE I CAN'T IMAGINE
WHY.
This is fixable, there are many, many better
ways the UK could vote -- here are two that
even keep local representatives.
And fixing voting really matters, because
this is a kind of government illegitimacy
score -- and it's been going up and may continue
to do so unless this fundamentally broken
voting system is changed.
Constituency profile
The seat covers the isles of Anglesey and Holy Island. Incomes and house prices are slightly below average for the UK. Electoral Calculus describes the seat as "Traditionalist", characterised by socially conservative Labour-inclined voters with lower levels of income and formal education.[3]
History
The Laws in Wales Act 1535 (26 Hen. 8. c. 26) provided for a single county seat in the House of Commons for each of 12 historic Welsh counties (including Anglesey) and two for Monmouthshire. Using the modern year, starting on 1 January, these parliamentary constituencies were authorised in 1536.
The Act contains the following provision, which had the effect of enfranchising the shire of Anglesey:
And that for this present Parliament, and all other Parliaments to be holden and kept for this Realm, one Knight shall be chosen and elected to the same Parliaments for every of the Shires of Brecknock, Radnor, Mountgomery and Denbigh, and for every other Shire within the said Country of Dominion of Wales;
The earliest known results are a fragment of the 1541 returns, in which the name of the Knight of the Shire for Anglesey (as Members of Parliament from county constituencies were known before the 19th century) has been lost.[4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][excessive citations] It is not known if Anglesey was represented in the parliaments of 1536 and 1539.[14]
The borough constituency of Newborough, soon renamed Beaumaris, returned a member of parliament for the boroughs of Anglesey. It was abolished in 1885, leaving only the county constituency of Anglesey. The official name of the constituency in English was Anglesey, until it was replaced by the Welsh name Ynys Môn. Parliament approved the change, to take effect from the 1983 general election. This was purely an alteration of the official name, as no boundary changes were involved.
Boundaries
Geographically, the constituency of Ynys Môn comprises the whole of the main island of Anglesey and the smaller Holy Island.[2]
^ abcdefghiCraig, F. W. S. (1974). British parliamentary election results 1885-1918 (1 ed.). London and Basingstoke: The Macmillan Press Ltd. ISBN9780333169032. Page 467
^ abcdefghiCraig, F. W. S. (1969). British parliamentary election results 1918-1949 (1 ed.). Glasgow: Political Reference Publications. ISBN0-900178-019. Page 547
^ abcdefgCraig, F. W. S. (1971). British parliamentary election results 1950-1970 (1 ed.). Chichester: Political Reference Publications. ISBN9780900178023. Page 565
^"Politics Resources". Election February 1974. Politics Resources. 28 February 1974. Archived from the original on 11 August 2011. Retrieved 2 February 2021.
^"Politics Resources". Election October 1974. Politics Resources. 10 October 1974. Archived from the original on 11 August 2011. Retrieved 2 February 2021.
^"Politics Resources". Election 1979. Politics Resources. 3 May 1979. Archived from the original on 11 August 2011. Retrieved 2 February 2021.