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| Elections in Arkansas |
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The 2024 United States presidential election in Arkansas is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Arkansas voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Arkansas has six electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1]
Although former Democratic President Bill Clinton hails from the state and comfortably won it in both of his 1990s election bids, Arkansas — a Southern U.S. state entrenched in the Bible Belt — has trended strongly towards the Republican Party in the 21st century with no Democrat winning the state's electoral votes since he did. The last Democratic presidential candidate to come within single digits of carrying Arkansas or even win so much as 40% of the state vote was John Kerry in 2004, with the Democrats' continued leftward shift combined with Barack Obama winning the 2008 Democratic primaries over former First Lady of Arkansas Hillary Clinton leading to Arkansas becoming safely red at the presidential level in 2008 despite the nationwide Democratic trend and Obama winning nationwide.
The GOP's popularity in Arkansas has become so pronounced that the state turned sharply against Mrs. Clinton in 2016, favoring Republican Donald Trump by 26.9%, followed by the latter comfortably winning the state again by 27.6% four years later; and Republicans have held every statewide elected position in the state since 2015.[citation needed] A strongly red state nowadays, Arkansas is expected to be securely won by the Republican candidate (presumably Trump) in 2024.[2]
Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden is running for reelection to a second term.[3]
Primary elections
Democratic primary
The Arkansas Democratic primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Joe Biden (incumbent) | 71,978 | 88.5% | 31 | ||
| Marianne Williamson | 3,883 | 4.8% | |||
| Dean Phillips | 2,346 | 2.9% | |||
| Stephen Lyons | 1,442 | 1.8% | |||
| Armando Perez-Serrato | 879 | 1.1% | |||
| Frankie Lozada | 786 | 1.0% | |||
| Total: | 81,314 | 100.00% | 37 | 37 | |
| Source:[4] | |||||
Republican primary
The Arkansas Republican primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 204,898 | 76.89% | 39 | 39 | |
| Nikki Haley | 49,085 | 18.42% | 1 | 1 | |
| Asa Hutchinson (withdrawn) | 7,377 | 2.77% | |||
| Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) | 3,162 | 1.19% | |||
| Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) | 860 | 0.32% | |||
| Chris Christie (withdrawn) | 600 | 0.23% | |||
| Ryan Binkley (withdrawn) | 183 | 0.07% | |||
| Doug Burgum (withdrawn) | 157 | 0.06% | |||
| David Stuckenberg | 151 | 0.06% | |||
| Total: | 266,473 | 100.00% | 40 | 40 | |
| Source: [5][6] | |||||
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[7] | Solid R | December 19, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[8] | Solid R | April 26, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[9] | Solid R | June 29, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[10] | Solid R | December 14, 2023 |
| CNalysis[11] | Solid R | December 30, 2023 |
| CNN[12] | Solid R | January 14, 2024 |
Polling
- Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | October 1–4, 2023 | 435 (RV) | ± 4.7% | 57% | 24% | 19% |
| Echelon Insights | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 7.7% | 58% | 33% | 9% |
- Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Echelon Insights | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 7.7% | 49% | 31% | 20% |
See also
- United States presidential elections in Arkansas
- 2024 United States presidential election
- 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2024 United States elections
Notes
References
- ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
- ^ "270toWin – 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved February 5, 2024.
- ^ Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC.
- ^ "Arkansas Democratic Primary Election Results". The New York Times. March 5, 2024. Retrieved March 6, 2024.
- ^ Yoon, Robert (March 3, 2024). "What to expect in Arkansas' state and presidential primaries". The AP. Retrieved March 5, 2024.
- ^ "Arkansas Presidential Primary". AP News. Retrieved April 5, 2024.
- ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
This page was last edited on 25 May 2024, at 11:43