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Congressional Elections: Crash Course Government and Politics #6
The 2016 US Presidential Election - One Year On - Professor Vernon Bogdanor FBA CBE
As the 2016 Elections Approach, What is America’s Economic Outlook?
Mark Blyth and Wendy Schiller – Election 2016: What Happened and Why?
Transcription
Hi, I'm Craig and this is Crash Course Government
and Politics, and today we're going to talk
about what is, if you ask the general public,
the most important part of politics: elections.
If you ask me, it's hair styles.
Look at Martin Van Buren's sideburns, how
could he not be elected?
Americans are kind of obsessed with elections,
I mean when this was being recorded in early
2015, television, news and the internet were
already talking about who would be Democrat
and Republican candidates for president in
2016. And many of the candidates have unofficially
been campaigning for years. I've been campaigning;
your grandma's been campaigning.
Presidential elections are exciting and you
can gamble on them. Is that legal, can you
gamble on them, Stan? Anyway, why we're so
obsessed with them is a topic for another day.
Right now I'm gonna tell you that the fixation
on the presidential elections is wrong, but
not because the president doesn't matter.
No, today we're gonna look at the elections
of the people that are supposed to matter the
most, Congress.
Constitutionally at least, Congress is the
most important branch of government because
it is the one that is supposed to be the most
responsive to the people.
One of the main reasons it's so responsive,
at least in theory, is the frequency of elections.
If a politician has to run for office often,
he or she, because unlike the president we
have women serving in Congress, kind of has
to pay attention to what the constituents
want, a little bit, maybe.
By now, I'm sure that most of you have memorized
the Constitution, so you recognize that despite
their importance in the way we discuss politics,
elections aren't really a big feature of the Constitution.
Except of course for the ridiculously complex
electoral college system for choosing the
president, which we don't even want to think
about for a few episodes. In fact, here's
what the Constitution says about Congressional
Elections in Article 1 Section 2:
"The House of Representatives shall be composed
of members chosen every second year by the
people of the several states, and the electors
in each state shall have the qualifications
requisite for electors of the most numerous
branch of the state legislature."
So the Constitution does establish that the
whole of the house is up for election every
2 years, and 1/3 of the senate is too, but
mainly it leaves the scheduling and rules
of elections up to the states. The actual
rules of elections, like when the polls are
open and where they actually are, as well
as the registration requirements, are pretty
much up to the states, subject to some federal
election law.
If you really want to know the rules in your
state, I'm sure that someone at the Board
of Elections, will be happy to explain them
to you. Really, you should give them a call;
they're very, very lonely.
In general though, here's what we can say
about American elections. First stating the
super obvious, in order to serve in congress,
you need to win an election.
In the House of Representatives, each election
district chooses a single representative,
which is why we call them single-member districts.
The number of districts is determined by the
Census, which happens every 10 years, and
which means that elections ending in zeros
are super important, for reasons that I'll
explain in greater detail in a future episode.
It's because of gerrymandering.
The Senate is much easier to figure out
because both of the state Senators are elected
by the entire state. It's as if the state
itself were a single district, which is true
for states like Wyoming, which are so unpopulated
as to have only 1 representative. Sometimes
these elections are called at large elections.
Before the election ever happens, you need
candidates. How candidates are chosen differs
from state to state, but usually it has something
to do with political parties, although it
doesn't have to. Why are things so complicated?!
What we can say is that candidates, or at
least good candidates, usually have certain
characteristics. Sorry America.
First off, if you are gonna run for office,
you should have an unblemished record, free
of, oh I don't know, felony convictions or
sex scandals, except maybe in Louisiana or
New York. This might lead to some pretty bland
candidates or people who are so calculating
that they have no skeletons in their closet,
but we Americans are a moral people and like
our candidates to reflect our ideals rather
than our reality.
The second characteristic that a candidate
must possess is the ability to raise money.
Now some candidates are billionaires and can
finance their own campaigns. But most billionaires
have better things to do: buying yachts, making
even more money, building money forts, buying
more yachts, so they don't have time to run
for office. But most candidates get their
money for their campaigns by asking for it.
The ability to raise money is key, especially
now, because running for office is expensive.
Can I get a how expensive is it? "How expensive
is it?!" Well, so expensive that the prices
of elections continually rises and in 2012
winners of House races spent nearly 2 million
each. Senate winners spent more than 10 million.
By the time this episode airs, I'm sure the
numbers will be much higher like a gajillion
billion million.
Money is important in winning an election,
but even more important, statistically, is
already being in Congress. Let's go to the
Thought Bubble.
The person holding an office who runs for
that office again is called the incumbent
and has a big advantage over any challenger.
This is according to political scientists
who, being almost as bad at naming things
as historians, refer to this as incumbency
advantage. There are a number of reasons why
incumbents tend to hold onto their seats in
congress, if they want to.
The first is that a sitting congressman has
a record to run on, which we hope includes
some legislative accomplishments, although
for the past few Congresses, these don't seem
to matter. The record might include case work,
which is providing direct services to constituents.
This is usually done by congressional staffers
and includes things like answering questions
about how to get certain government benefits
or writing recommendation letters to West
Point. Congressmen can also provide jobs to
constituents, which is usually a good way
to get them to vote for you. These are either
government jobs, kind of rare these days,
called patronage or indirect employment through
government contracts for programs within a
Congressman's district. These programs are
called earmarks or pork barrel programs, and
they are much less common now because Congress
has decided not to use them any more, sort of.
The second advantage that incumbents have
is that they have a record of winning elections,
which if you think about it, is pretty obvious.
Being a proven winner makes it easier for
a congressmen to raise money, which helps
them win, and long term incumbents tend to
be more powerful in Congress which makes it
even easier for them to raise money and win.
The Constitution give incumbents one structural
advantage too. Each elected congressman is
allowed $100,000 and free postage to send
out election materials. This is called the
franking privilege. It's not so clear how great an
advantage this is in the age of the internet, but
at least according to the book The Victory Lab, direct
mail from candidates can be surprisingly effective.
How real is this incumbency advantage? Well
if you look at the numbers, it seems pretty
darn real. Over the past 60 years, almost 90%
of members of The House of Representatives
got re-elected. The Senate has been even more
volatile, but even at the low point in 1980
more than 50% of sitting senators got to keep
their jobs.
Thanks, Thought Bubble. You're so great. So
those are some of the features of congressional
elections. Now, if you'll permit me to get
a little politically sciencey, I'd like to
try to explain why elections are so important to the
way that Congressmen and Senators do their jobs.
In 1974, political scientist David Mayhew
published a book in which he described something
he called "The Electoral Connection." This was
the idea that Congressmen were primarily motivated
by the desire to get re-elected, which intuitively
makes a lot of sense, even though I'm not
sure what evidence he had for this conclusion.
Used to be able to get away with that kind
of thing I guess, clearly David may-not-hew
to the rules of evidence, pun [rim shot],
high five, no. Anyway Mayhew's research methodology
isn't as important as his idea itself because
The Electoral Connection provides a frame
work for understanding congressman's activities.
Mayhew divided representatives' behaviors
and activities into three categories.
The first is advertising; congressmen work
to develop their personal brand so that they
are recognizable to voters. Al D'Amato used
to be know in New York as Senator Pothole,
because he was able to bring home so much
pork that he could actually fix New York's
streets. Not by filling them with pork, money,
its money, remember pork barrel spending?
The second activity is credit claiming; Congressmen
get things done so that they can say they got them
done. A lot of case work and especially pork
barrel spending are done in the name of credit
claiming. Related to credit claiming, but
slightly different, is position taking. This
means making a public judgmental statement
on something likely to be of interest to voters.
Senators can do this through filibusters.
Representatives can't filibuster, but they
can hold hearings, publicly supporting a hearing
is a way of associating yourself with an idea
without having to actually try to pass legislation.
And of course they can go on the TV, especially
on Sunday talk shows. What's a TV, who even
watches TV?
Now the idea of The Electoral Connection doesn't
explain every action a member of Congress
takes; sometimes they actually make laws to
benefit the public good or maybe solve problems,
huh, what an idea! But Mayhew's idea gives
us a way of thinking about Congressional activity,
an analytical lens that connects what Congressmen
actually do with how most of us understand
Congressmen, through elections.
So the next time you see a Congressmen call
for a hearing on a supposed horrible scandal
or read about a Senator threatening to filibuster
a policy that may have significant popular
support, ask yourself, "Is this Representative
claiming credit or taking a position, and
how will this build their brand?" In other
words: what's the electoral connection and
how will whatever they're doing help them get
elected? This might feel a little cynical,
but the reality is Mayhew's thesis often seems
to fit with today's politics.
Thanks for watching, see you next week.
Vote for me; I'm on the TV.
I'm not -- I'm on the YouTube.
Crash Course: Government and Politics is produced
in association with PBS Digital Studios. Support
for Crash Course US Government comes from
Voqal. Voqal supports nonprofits that use
technology and media to advance social equity.
Learn more about their mission and initiatives
at Voqal.org. Crash Course is made by all
of these nice people. Thanks for watching.
That guy isn't nice.
Results summary
Results of the 2016 House of Representatives elections in Michigan by district:[2]
When Republican Dan Benishek first ran to represent Michigan's 1st congressional district in the 2010 elections, he pledged to serve no more than three terms. In March 2015, he decided to run for a fourth term as the district's representative.[3] However, he changed his mind in September and decided not to seek re-election.[4]
On June 24, Michigan Democratic Party chairman Lon Johnson declared his run for the seat.[5] Former Democratic nominee Jerry Cannon also announced his candidacy.[6] Republican state senator Tom Casperson announced his run in November 2015.[7] Casperson was challenged in the Republican primary by former state legislator Jason Allen, who announced he was running in January 2016,[8] and retired U.S. Marine Jack Bergman, who declared in March.[9] In January 2016, Benishek endorsed Casperson's candidacy.[10]
In the August 2 primary, Jack Bergman won the GOP nomination and Lon Johnson won the Democratic nomination.[11]
Republican incumbent Rep. Bill Huizenga ran for re-election. His Democratic opponent was Dennis Murphy, and his Libertarian opponent was Kentwood City Commissioner Erwin Haas.[16][25][26]
Republican incumbent Rep. John Moolenaar ran for re-election. His Libertarian opponent was Leonard Schwartz. Keith Butkovich was the candidate for the Natural Law Party, George Zimmer for the U.S. Taxpayers Party and George Salvi for the Green Party.[16] There was no Democratic opponent on the August primary ballot, but Debra Wirth launched a successful write-in campaign to be the Democratic nominee for the November election.
The 7th district is located in Southern Michigan. The incumbent was Republican Tim Walberg, who had represented the district since 2011 and previously represented the district from 2007 to 2009. He was re-elected with 53% of the vote in 2014, and the district has a PVI of R+3. Walberg was challenged by Doug North.[29] Democratic state representative Gretchen Driskell, the former mayor of Saline, announced that she would run against Walberg in 2016,[30] as would Libertarian Ken Proctor.[16] Walberg won the Republican nomination.[31]
Gilbert withdrew from the race in May 2016 due to health issues, and at that time Keefe did not appear to have collected enough valid petition signatures to be placed on the ballot.[34]
On July 6, 2016, Democrats introduced 29-year-old Suzanna Shkreli, an Assistant Macomb County Prosecutor to be the party's nominee.[35] At the time of Shkreli's announcement, it was still unclear if Michigan Secretary of StateRuth Johnson would allow Gilbert to be removed from the ballot. Johnson said that the Office of the Secretary of State would not make a ruling until after the state's August 2 primary.[36] Gilbert's name remained on the ballot.
On August 2, Gilbert received the most votes in the Democratic primary, receiving 28,810 votes, despite previously announcing her withdrawal from the race. Michigan Democratic Party Chairman Brandon Dillon said the day after that the party would begin the process to remove Gilbert from the November ballot and replace her with Shkreli within 48 hours.[37] Bishop's campaign described Gilbert's attempt to be removed from the ballot as unprecedented. A Democratic campaign spokesman said they had retained legal counsel for the process.[37]
The Michigan state elections director said that Gilbert's name could be removed from the ballot in the general election.[38] On August 22, 2016, the state board of canvassers allowed Gilbert's name to be replaced on the November ballot with that of Shkreli.[39]
Nominee
Suzanna Shkreli, Assistant Macomb County Prosecutor
Failed to qualify
Linda Keefe, former Windsor Township Clerk (disqualified from primary ballot for lack of signatures)[40]
Democratic incumbent Rep. Sander Levin ran for re-election. His Republican challenger was Christopher Morse, and his Libertarian opponent was Matt Orlando.[15][26][16]
Republican incumbent Candice Miller, who had represented the 10th district since 2003, did not run for reelection.[41] State representative Tony Forlini,[42]State SenatorPhil Pavlov, businessman Paul Mitchell, former state senator Alan Sanborn, and retired military veteran David VanAssche were seeking the Republican nomination to succeed Miller.[43] State Senator Jack Brandenburg considered entering the race, but declared in January 2016 that he would not run.[44][45] Paul Mitchell won the Republican nomination.[31]
The 11th district is located northwest of Detroit. The incumbent was Republican Dave Trott, who had represented the district since 2015. He was elected in 2014, winning the general election with 55.9% of the vote. He ran for re-election. Anil Kumar was his Democratic opponent, and Jonathan Osment was his Libertarian opponent.[15][16]Kerry Bentivolio, who represented the 11th District from 2013 to 2015 and lost to Trott in the 2014 Republican primary, announced on July 21, 2016, that he planned to seek the seat as an independent after losing to Osment in the Libertarian convention.[48]
Democratic first term congresswoman Debbie Dingell ran for re-election and was unopposed in the primary. Jeff Jones was the Republican challenger, a Taylor resident, a former independent United States Senate candidate in 2014.[49] Also running was Tom Bagwell of Wyandotte, libertarian activist and former Ypsilanti Township Park Commissioner who won the Libertarian Party nomination for District 12 on May 14, 2016, in Lansing, Michigan.[50]
John Conyers, a Democrat, the incumbent representative in the 13th district, had served 26 terms in Congress and was the Dean of the United States House of Representatives. Detroit and City Clerk Janice Winfrey ran against Conyers in the Democratic Party primary election.[52] Jeff Gorman ran on the Republican side, and Tiffany Hayden ran on the Libertarian side.[15][26][16] Conyers won the nomination.[53]
Democratic incumbent Rep. Brenda Lawrence sought re-election and had two Democratic challengers, Terrance Morrison and Vanessa Moss. Lawrence won the Democratic nomination.[54] The Republican candidate was Howard Klausner and the Libertarian candidate was Gregory Creswell.[26][16]