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Post-election pendulum for the 2019 New South Wales state election

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The following is a Mackerras pendulum for the 2019 New South Wales state election.[1]

"Safe" seats require a swing of over 10 per cent to change, "fairly safe" seats require a swing of between 6 and 10 per cent, while "marginal" seats require a swing of less than 6 per cent.

All margins are Coalition vs. Labor unless specified otherwise.

Margins by party

Liberal/National seats (48)
Marginal
East Hills Wendy Lindsay LIB 0.5%
Penrith Stuart Ayres LIB 1.3%
Dubbo Dugald Saunders NAT 2.0% v IND
Upper Hunter Dave Layzell[a] NAT 2.5%[b]
Holsworthy Melanie Gibbons LIB 3.2%
Goulburn Wendy Tuckerman LIB 3.7%
Heathcote Lee Evans LIB 4.9%
Tweed Geoff Provest NAT 4.9%
Wollondilly Nathaniel Smith LIB 5.5% v IND
Fairly safe
Riverstone Kevin Conolly LIB 6.3%
Seven Hills Mark Taylor LIB 6.3%
Bega Andrew Constance LIB 6.9%
Camden Peter Sidgreaves LIB 7.5%
Myall Lakes Stephen Bromhead NAT 9.1%
Safe
Coffs Harbour Gurmesh Singh NAT 10.3% v IND
Oatley Mark Coure LIB 10.5%
South Coast Shelley Hancock LIB 10.5%
Parramatta Geoff Lee LIB 10.6%
North Shore Felicity Wilson LIB 11.1% v IND
Mulgoa Tanya Davies LIB 11.3%
Monaro John Barilaro NAT 11.6%
Kiama Gareth Ward LIB 12.0%
Terrigal Adam Crouch LIB 12.3%
Epping Dominic Perrottet LIB 12.3%
Ryde Victor Dominello LIB 12.3%
Manly James Griffin LIB 12.9% v GRN
Lane Cove Anthony Roberts LIB 14.3%
Clarence Chris Gulaptis NAT 14.4%
Miranda Eleni Petinos LIB 14.5%
Oxley Melinda Pavey NAT 14.8%
Drummoyne John Sidoti LIB 15.0%
Albury Justin Clancy LIB 15.9%
Hornsby Matt Kean LIB 16.3%
Hawkesbury Robyn Preston LIB 17.4%
Bathurst Paul Toole NAT 17.9%
Baulkham Hills David Elliott LIB 18.6%
Vaucluse Gabrielle Upton LIB 19.3% v GRN
Cronulla Mark Speakman LIB 19.6%
Port Macquarie Leslie Williams NAT 20.2%
Ku-ring-gai Alister Henskens LIB 20.5%
Pittwater Rob Stokes LIB 20.8% v GRN
Wakehurst Brad Hazzard LIB 21.0%
Willoughby Gladys Berejiklian LIB 21.0%
Tamworth Kevin Anderson NAT 21.1% v IND
Castle Hill Ray Williams LIB 24.6%
Davidson Jonathan O'Dea LIB 25.2% v GRN
Cootamundra Steph Cooke NAT 27.1%
Northern Tablelands Adam Marshall NAT 32.8%
Labor seats (36)
Marginal
Lismore Janelle Saffin ALP 1.3%
Coogee Marjorie O'Neill ALP 1.6%
Kogarah Chris Minns ALP 1.7%
Strathfield Jodi McKay ALP 5.0%
The Entrance David Mehan ALP 5.2%
Port Stephens Kate Washington ALP 5.8%
Fairly safe
Londonderry Prue Car ALP 6.5%
Gosford Liesl Tesch ALP 7.3%
Granville Julia Finn ALP 7.6%
Maroubra Michael Daley ALP 8.5%
Auburn Lynda Voltz ALP 9.1%
Rockdale Steve Kamper ALP 9.6%
Safe
Swansea Yasmin Catley ALP 10.6%
Prospect Hugh McDermott ALP 10.7%
Charlestown Jodie Harrison ALP 12.4%
Wyong David Harris ALP 12.5%
Cabramatta Nick Lalich ALP 12.9% vs IND
Canterbury Sophie Cotsis ALP 13.0%
Maitland Jenny Aitchison ALP 13.2%
Bankstown Tania Mihailuk ALP 13.8%
Macquarie Fields Anoulack Chanthivong ALP 14.8%
Blue Mountains Trish Doyle ALP 14.9%
Heffron Ron Hoenig ALP 15.1%
Mount Druitt Edmond Atalla ALP 16.4%
Liverpool Paul Lynch ALP 16.7%
Campbelltown Greg Warren ALP 17.0%
Blacktown Stephen Bali ALP 17.7%
Newcastle Tim Crakanthorp ALP 17.7%
Fairfield Guy Zangari ALP 17.9%
Shellharbour Anna Watson ALP 18.3%
Cessnock Clayton Barr ALP 19.3%
Keira Ryan Park ALP 19.8%
Wollongong Paul Scully ALP 21.4%
Summer Hill Jo Haylen ALP 22.3%
Lakemba Jihad Dib ALP 22.4%
Wallsend Sonia Hornery ALP 25.4%
Crossbench seats (9)
Murray Helen Dalton SFF 3.5% vs NAT
Ballina Tamara Smith GRN 5.4% vs NAT
Barwon Roy Butler SFF 6.6% vs NAT
Balmain Jamie Parker GRN 10.0% vs ALP
Sydney Alex Greenwich IND 11.8% vs LIB
Newtown Jenny Leong GRN 13.8% vs ALP
Orange Philip Donato SFF 15.2% vs NAT
Wagga Wagga Joe McGirr IND 15.5% vs NAT
Lake Macquarie Greg Piper IND 22.1% vs ALP

Notes

  1. ^ Dave Layzell was elected to the district of Upper Hunter in the 2021 by-election after the resignation of Michael Johnsen.
  2. ^ While the post-2019 margin is 2.5%, the results of the 2021 Upper Hunter state by-election is a margin of 5.8% for the National Party of Australia – NSW.

References

  1. ^ Raue, Ben. "New South Wales 2019 Pendulum".
This page was last edited on 10 January 2023, at 20:18
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