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Opinion polling for the November 2015 Turkish general election

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

This article is part of a series on the
November 2015 Turkish general election
Sunday, 1 November 2015
Issues and developments
Solution process
Gallery: Picture, Sound, Video
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In the leadup to the November 2015 general election, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. These polls only include Turkish voters nationwide and do not take into account Turkish expatriates voting abroad.

The results tend to vary widely (see opinion polls in Turkey for further information). Opposition parties tend to regard such polls as unreliable and have presented legislation to Parliament tightening restrictions on how opinion polls conduct their research. After the previous election in June 2015, the polling company ORC issued a written statement apologising for the inaccuracies in their pre-election polls. KONDA, another polling company, made an apology for similar reasons after their predictions varied widely with the actual result after the 2014 presidential election.

Polling accuracy

The following table shows the most accurate polling companies based on the last opinion polls conducted by each company before the June 2015 vote (held on 7 June 2015), taking into account the domestic-only vote shares won in the election.

Party Actual vote
7 June 2015 		Most accurate pollster
Pollster Poll date Predicted vote Error margin
AKP 40.7 ANAR 27 May 40.5 Decrease 0.2
CHP 25.1 MAK 18–26 May 24.9 Decrease 0.2
ORC 30 May – 1 June 25.3 Increase 0.2
MHP 16.5 Gezici 2 June 16.5 Steady 0.0
HDP 13.0 Konda 30–31 May 12.6 Decrease 0.4
Overall most accurate ANAR 27 May – Increase 0.9

Controversies

According to media reports, Turkey's Justice and Development Party (AKP) government has attempted to suppress polling companies who publish polls predicting that the AKP will lose seats in the election.

Gezici Research and Polling Company have had some of their pollsters arrested in February and September 2015, after predicting that the AKP will lose power in the next election.[1]

Vote share polling

Graphical summary

Opinion polling since the June general election

Poll results

Date Pollster Sample AKP CHP MHP HDP Others Lead
1 Nov Election results
Domestic vote only		 46,555,267 49.3 25.6 12.0 10.6 2.5 23.7
24–29 Oct Andy-Ar[2] 2,400 43.7 27.1 14.0 13.0 2.2 16.6
24–25 Oct Konda[3][4] 3,574 41.7 27.9 14.2 13.8 2.3 13.8
24–25 Oct A&G[5] 4,536 47.2 25.3 13.5 12.2 1.8 21.9
24–25 Oct Gezici[6] 4,864 43.0 26.1 14.9 12.2 3.8 16.9
22–24 Oct Metropoll[7] 2,576 43.3 25.9 14.8 13.4 2.6 17.4
21–24 Oct ORC[8] 2,650 43.3 27.4 14.0 12.2 3.1 15.9
22 Oct
The first of a series of pre-election restrictions come into force, banning the publication of opinion polls
17–21 Oct Kurd-Tek[9] 2,592 39.1 28.1 14.4 14.2 4.2 11.0
16–20 Oct AKAM[10] 24,540 40.5 28.2 14.3 14.2 2.8 12.3
16–20 Oct Betimar[11] 2,000 44.3 25.5 13.6 13.0 3.6 18.8
13–19 Oct Konsensus[12] 2,002 43.0 28.6 13.1 11.9 3.4 14.4
17–18 Oct Konda[3][4] ? 41.5 28.0 14.7 12.7 3.1
12–17 Oct Gezici[13][14] 4,864 41.3 27.0 15.6 12.5 3.6 14.3
12–17 Oct MAK[15] – 43.5 27.8 13.6 12.1 3.0 15.7
12–16 Oct Argetus[16] 4,472 43.1 26.2 15.1 12.6 3.0 16.9
10–16 Oct Perspektif[17] 1,255 42.3 27.6 14.7 12.8 2.6 14.7
10–15 Oct Denge[18] – 43.4 25.9 13.7 13.6 3.4 17.5
8–15 Oct Sonar[19] 3,000 40.5 27.3 15.2 13.1 3.9 13.2
10 Oct
Twin bombings target a peace rally in Ankara
5–9 Oct Samer[20] 4,144 41.4 26.9 15.4 13.9 2.4 14.5
4–7 Oct MetroPoll[21] 2,526 42.5 26.3 16.3 13.0 1.9 16.2
3–6 Oct Andy-Ar[22] 1,764 42.6 27.1 15.2 12.1 3.0 15.5
3–4 Oct Konda[3][4] ? 41.0 29.2 14.8 12.2 2.8
3–4 Oct Gezici[23][24] 4,860 40.8 27.6 15.8 13.6 2.2 13.2
28 Sep – 1 Oct TÜSİAR[25] 3,041 43.0 26.4 14.6 12.1 4.0 16.6
26–27 Sep Gezici[26] 4,860 39.8 28.2 17.3 12.3 2.4 11.6
17–24 Sep LRC[26] 2,425 38.9 26.0 17.9 12.3 4.9 12.9
23 Sep AKAM[27][28] 1,214 38.9 27.7 14.5 14.6 4.3 11.2
19–23 Sep MAK[29] 5,500 43.7 26.7 14.1 11.5 4.1 17.0
22 Sep
The two HDP ministers in the interim election government resign and are replaced by independents
19–21 Sep Ada[30] 3,000 44.7 27.6 12.9 11.8 3.0 17.1
18 Sep
Deputy Prime Minister and MHP Ankara MP Tuğrul Türkeş defects to the AKP
12–15 Sep ORC[31][32] 2,760 44.0 27.8 13.4 11.0 3.8 16.2
2–15 Sep KURD-TEK[33][34] 5,348 38.5 26.7 17.5 14.6 2.8 11.8
12–13 Sep Gezici[35] 5,000 39.3 28.1 16.8 13.5 2.3 11.2
5–13 Sep Konsensus[36] 1,500 43.3 27.6 13.8 12.6 2.7 15.7
27 Aug – 13 Sep ANAR-Denge-GENAR-Pollmark[37] 157,907 44.2 25.4 14.0 12.5 3.9 18.8
12 Sep
Ahmet Davutoğlu is re-elected as AKP leader unopposed during the party's 5th Ordinary Congress
5–12 Sep Sonar[38] 2,500 38.2 28.0 18.2 13.7 1.9 10.2
5–6 Sep Konda[3][4][39] ? 41.7 24.8 16.4 12.3 4.8
2–5 Sep MetroPoll[40] 2,540 41.4 27.3 15.3 13.0 3.2 14.1
3 Sep Varyans[41] 15,000 43.9 26.2 14.1 12.3 3.5 17.7
2 Sep KamuAR[42] 5,249 42.3 26.0 18.7 11.9 1.2 16.3
28 Aug
Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu forms Turkey's first ever interim election government
22–25 Aug ORC[43] 2,450 43.7 27.5 14.3 11.2 3.3 16.2
24 Aug
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan calls a snap general election scheduled for 1 November 2015
24 Aug AKAM[44] 1,624 39.7 28.5 12.6 14.8 4.7 11.2
22–23 Aug Gezici[45] 4,860 38.9 27.8 16.3 13.5 3.5 11.1
19–23 Aug Argetus[46] 2,960 42.6 25.5 15.4 12.5 4.0 17.1
21 Aug MetroPoll[47] 2,520 41.7 25.5 15.7 14.7 2.4 16.2
20 Aug CHP[48] – 38.8 28.7 14.6 13.8 4.1 10.1
18 Aug
AKP leader and Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu returns the mandate to form a government to the
President after last-ditch coalition talks with the MHP break down
18 Aug Gezici[49] – 39.2 26.4 16.2 14.1 4.1 12.8
13 Aug
Coalition talks between the AKP and the CHP break down
13 Aug AKP[50] – 43.8 25.5 15.4 12.5 2.8 18.3
8–11 Aug Andy-Ar[51] 1,504 42.8 27.0 15.9 12.8 1.5 15.8
8–9 Aug Konda[3][4] ? 43.6 25.5 14.7 12.8 3.4
7–9 Aug ORC[52] 1,580 44.1 26.8 15.6 10.7 2.8 17.3
4–8 Aug MAK[53] 5,500 44.7 25.3 15.6 10.7 3.7 19.4
24 Jul – 4 Aug SONAR[54] 3,500 42.9 25.2 17.0 10.3 5.6 17.2
27 Jul AKAM[55] 1,412 39.9 27.5 13.8 14.5 4.4 12.4
21 Jul
İstanbul MP İhsan Özkes resigns from the CHP
20 Jul
A suicide bombing in Suruç kills 32 people and results in military operations against the
Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL)
11–15 Jul ORC[56] 3,200 43.5 27.0 15.5 10.9 3.1 16.5
4–5 Jul Gezici[57] 4,860 40.1 26.1 14.7 14.2 4.9 14.0
29 Jun Andy-Ar[58] 1,556 42.8 27.3 15.4 11.7 2.8 15.5
24 Jun MetroPoll[59] 2,483 41.6 25.1 16.2 12.9 4.2 16.5
8 Jun IPSOS[60] 1,750 45.0 25.0 14.0 12.0 3.0 20.0
7 Jun June 2015 general election
Domestic vote only		 45,121,773 40.7 25.1 16.5 13.0 4.7 15.6
12 Jun 2011 June 2011 general election
Domestic vote only		 42,813,896 49.8 26.0 13.0 – 11.2 23.8

Seat predictions

Date Pollster Sample AKP CHP MHP HDP Majority
22–24 Oct MetroPoll[7] 2,576
269 / 550
134 / 550
67 / 550
80 / 550
 Hung
17–21 Oct Kurd-Tek[9] 2,592
251 / 550
149 / 550
66 / 550
84 / 550
 Hung
16–20 Oct AKAM[10] 24,540
254 / 550
140 / 550
69 / 550
87 / 550
 Hung
16–20 Oct Betimar[11] 2,000
278 / 550
132 / 550
61 / 550
79 / 550
 6
17–18 Oct Gezici[13][14] 4,864
262 / 550
137 / 550
74 / 550
77 / 550
 Hung
3–4 Oct Gezici[24] 4,860
256 / 550
141 / 550
73 / 550
80 / 550
 Hung
26–27 Sep Gezici[61] 4,860
246 / 550
140 / 550
87 / 550
77 / 550
 Hung
23 Sep AKAM[62] 1,214
243 / 550
149 / 550
72 / 550
86 / 550
 Hung
27 Aug – 13 Sep ANAR-Denge-GENAR-Pollmark[63] 157,907
276 / 550
129 / 550
65 / 550
80 / 550
 2
24 Aug AKAM[44] 1,624
250 / 550
144 / 550
68 / 550
88 / 550
 Hung
22–23 Aug Gezici[45] 4,860
240 / 550
142 / 550
85 / 550
83 / 550
 Hung
21 Aug MetroPoll[47] 2,520
259 / 550
133 / 550
74 / 550
84 / 550
 Hung
20 Aug CHP[48] –
238 / 550
149 / 550
76 / 550
86 / 550
 Hung
27 Jul AKAM[55] 1,412
254 / 550
147 / 550
63 / 550
86 / 550
 Hung
7 Jun June 2015 general election –
258 / 550
132 / 550
80 / 550
80 / 550
 Hung
12 Jun 2011 June 2011 general election –
327 / 550
135 / 550
53 / 550
35 / 550
 104

See also

References

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