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Opinion polling for the 2017 French legislative election

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

This page lists public opinion polls conducted for the 2017 French legislative elections, which were held in two rounds on 11 and 18 June 2017.

Unless otherwise noted, all polls listed below are compliant with the regulations of the national polling commission (Commission nationale des sondages) and utilize the quota method.

Graphical summary

The averages in the graphs below were constructed using polls listed below conducted by the nine major French pollsters. The graphs are smoothed 14-day weighted moving averages, using only the most recent poll conducted by any given pollster within that range (each poll weighted based on recency).

No total for Europe Ecology – The Greens (EELV) was provided by the Ministry of the Interior in the 2017 legislative elections. According to statistics compiled by Laurent de Boissieu, 454 EELV candidates collected 3.41% of the vote in the first round.[1]

First round

The comparison for the French Communist Party and La France Insoumise with 2012 is made against the Left Front. Before their unification under the umbrella of the Union of Democrats and Independents, the New Centre, Radical Party, and Centrist Alliance were counted individually in 2012, and are included in the miscellaneous right total for that year, which would otherwise be 3.51%.

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
Abs. EXG PCF FI ECO EELV PS PRG DVG LREM MoDem UDI LR DVD UPR DLF FN EXD REG DIV
2017 election 11 Jun 2017 51.30% 0.77% 2.72% 11.03% 4.30% 7.44% 0.47% 1.60% 28.21% 4.12% 3.03% 15.77% 2.76% (DIV) 1.17% 13.20% 0.30% 0.90% 2.21%
Ipsos 7–8 Jun 2017 1,112 40% 1% 2% 11.5% 3% 8% 31.5% 22% 1.5% 17% 2.5%
Harris Interactive 6–8 Jun 2017 931 1% 3% 12% 3% 7% 1% 30% 19% 2% 1% 17% 1% 3%
OpinionWay 6–8 Jun 2017 3,080 46% 1% 3% 12% 3% 7% 1% 30% 21% 2% 18% 2%
Ifop-Fiducial 6–8 Jun 2017 1,003 39% 0.5% 3% 11% 3.5% 8% 1% 30% 20% 2% 1.5% 18% 1.5%
Elabe 5–8 Jun 2017 1,918 51% 0.5% 2% 11% 3% 9% 29% 23% 2% 17% 3.5%
BVA 2–5 Jun 2017 4,772 41% 1% 2% 12.5% 3% 8% 1% 30% 20% 1.5% 2% 18% 1%
Ipsos 2–4 Jun 2017 1,126 40% 1% 2% 12.5% 2.5% 8.5% 29.5% 23% 1.5% 17% 2.5%
Odoxa 31 May–1 Jun 2017 697 48% 1% 3% 11% 3% 8% 33% 19% 2.5% 18% 1.5%
Harris Interactive 30 May–1 Jun 2017 885 2% 2% 11% 3% 8% 1% 31% 18% 2% 2% 18% <0.5% 2%
OpinionWay 30 May–1 Jun 2017 1,940 45% 1% 3% 13% 2% 9% 1% 29% 20% 2% 18% 2%
Ifop 29–31 May 2017 2,802 38% 0.5% 2.5% 12% 3% 7.5% 1% 31% 19% 1.5% 2% 18% 2%
Ipsos 27–30 May 2017 8,778 39% 0.5% 2% 11.5% 3% 8.5% 31% 22% 2% 18% 1.5%
Ipsos 26–28 May 2017 1,127 0.5% 2% 11.5% 3% 9% 29.5% 22% 2.5% 18% 2%
Kantar Sofres 24–28 May 2017 2,022 37% 1% 2% 12% 3.5% 8% 1% 31% 18% 1.5% 0.5% 2.5% 17% 2%
Harris Interactive 23–26 May 2017 905 2% 2% 14% 3% 7% 31% 18% 3% 19% 1%
OpinionWay 23–24 May 2017 2,103 1% 2% 15% 10% 28% 20% 2% 19% 3%
Elabe 23–24 May 2017 1,011 49% 0.5% 2% 12% 2.5% 6.5% 33% 20% 1.5% 19% 3%
Ifop-Fiducial 18–19 May 2017 950 0.5% 1.5% 15% 2.5% 7% 31% 19% 2.5% 18% 3%
Harris Interactive 16–18 May 2017 940 1% 2% 16% 3% 6% 32% 18% 3% 19%
OpinionWay 16–18 May 2017 1,997 1% 2% 14% 11% 27% 20% 2% 20% 3%
Harris Interactive 15–17 May 2017 4,598 1% 2% 15% 3% 6% 32% 19% 3% 19%
Harris Interactive 9–11 May 2017 941 2% 2% 14% 3% 7% 29% 20% 3% 20%
Harris Interactive 7 May 2017 2,376 1% 2% 13% 3% 8% 26% 22% 3% 22%
Kantar Sofres 4–5 May 2017 1,507 2% 1% 15% 3.5% 9% 24% 22% 2.5% 21%
Ifop-Fiducial 4–5 May 2017 1,405 1% 2% 16% 3% 9% 22% 2.5% 20% 1.5% 20% 3%
OpinionWay 24 Apr–1 May 2017 5,032 1% 10% 13% 26% 24% 3% 19% 4%
2012 election 10 Jun 2012 42.78% 0.98% 6.91% (FG) 0.96% 5.46% 29.35% 1.65% 3.40% 1.77% 27.12% 7.54% (DVD) 13.60% 0.19% 0.56% 0.52%

Second round seat projections

Projections marked with an asterisk (*) were constructed for 535 out of 577 constituencies, including only metropolitan France only and excluding Corsica as well as overseas territories and residents.[2]

The comparison for the French Communist Party and La France Insoumise with 2012 is made against the Left Front. Before their unification under the umbrella of the Union of Democrats and Independents, the New Centre, Radical Party, and Centrist Alliance were counted individually in 2012, and are included in the miscellaneous right total for that year, which would otherwise be 15.

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
Abs. PCF FI PS PRG DVG EELV LREM MoDem UDI LR DVD DLF FN EXD REG DIV
2017 election 18 Jun 2017 57.36% 10 17 30 3 12 1 308 42 18 112 6 1 8 1 5 3
Odoxa 14–15 Jun 2017 948 53% 8–17 25–35 430–460 70–95 1–6 3–7
Harris Interactive 13–15 Jun 2017 914 14–25 22–35 440–470 60–80 1–6 3–7
OpinionWay 13–15 Jun 2017 2,901 54% 5–15 20–30 440–470 70–90 1–5 3–10
Ipsos 7–8 Jun 2017 1,112 11–21 22–32 397–427 95–115 5–15 5–10
Harris Interactive 6–8 Jun 2017 931 15–25 20–30 360–390 125–140 8–18 7–9
OpinionWay 6–8 Jun 2017 3,080 12–22 15–25 370–400 120–150 8–18 5–10
Ipsos 2–4 Jun 2017 1,126 12–22 25–35 385–415 105–125 5–15 3–7
Odoxa 31 May–1 Jun 2017 697 15–25 25–35 350–390 120–160 5–15 5–10
Harris Interactive 30 May–1 Jun 2017 885 15–25 30–44 330–360 135–150 8–22 7–9
OpinionWay 30 May–1 Jun 2017 1,940 24–31 20–35 335–355 145–165 7–17 5–10
Ifop-Fiducial 29–31 May 2017 2,802 15–25 20–35 350–380 133–153 9–16 8–12
Ipsos 27–30 May 2017 8,778 10–20 25–35 395–425 95–115 5–15 5–10
Kantar Sofres 24–28 May 2017 2,022 20–30 40–50 320–350 140–155 10–15 5–10
OpinionWay* 23–24 May 2017 2,103 25–30 25–30 310–330 140–160 10–15
OpinionWay* 16–18 May 2017 1,997 20–25 40–50 280–300 150–170 10–15
OpinionWay* 24 Apr–1 May 2017 5,032 6–8 28–43 249–286 200–210 15–25
2012 election 17 Jun 2012 44.60% 10 (FG) 280 12 22 17 2 194 35 (DVD) 2 1 2 0

By second round configuration

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
Left LREM Right FN
OpinionWay 13–15 Jun 2017 2,901 41% 59%
58% 42%
60% 40%

By first round vote

In each case, results were based on interviews in which respondents were presented with a list of candidates in their constituency.

LREM/MoDem–LR/UDI/DVD

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
First round vote LREM/
MoDem
LR/UDI/
DVD
No vote
OpinionWay 13–15 Jun 2017 2,901 FI 33% 8% 59%
PS 45% 10% 45%
FN 8% 30% 62%

PS/FI/DVG–LREM/MoDem

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
First round vote PS/FI/
DVG
LREM/
MoDem
No vote
OpinionWay 13–15 Jun 2017 2,901 LR/UDI 18% 50% 32%
FN 28% 6% 66%

LREM/MoDem–FN

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
First round vote LREM/
MoDem
FN No vote
OpinionWay 13–15 Jun 2017 2,901 FI 27% 11% 62%
PS 64% 4% 32%
LR/UDI 35% 32% 33%

By constituency

First round

Bouches-du-Rhône's 4th

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
Abs. Jean-Luc Mélenchon
FI
Patrick Mennucci
PSEELV
Corinne Versini
LREM
Solange Biaggi
LRUDI
Jeanne Marti
FN
Others
2017 election 11 Jun 2017 57.86% 34.31% 12.43% 22.66% 10.63% 10.92% 9.07%
Harris Interactive 17–18 May 2017 616 35% 13% 26% 9% 12% 5%
Ifop-Fiducial 17–18 May 2017 602 38% 13% 24% 10% 12% 3%

Charente-Maritime's 1st

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
Abs. Cédric Ruffié
FI
Jean-Marc Soubeste
EELV
Olivier Falorni
DVG
Otilia Ferreira
MoDemLREM
Bruno Léal
LR
Jean-Marc de Lacoste-Lareymondie
FN
Others
2017 election 11 Jun 2017 48.84% 10.92% 3.91% 36.54% 26.99% 9.83% 7.03% 4.79%
Ifop-Fiducial 2–6 Jun 2017 685 15% 3% 34% 25% 12% 8% 3%

Eure's 1st

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
Abs. Michaël Després
FI
Bruno Le Maire
LREM
Coumba Dioukhané
LR
Fabienne Delacour
FN
Others
2017 election 11 Jun 2017 52.01% 11.43% 44.46% 6.16% 22.09% 15.86%
Ifop-Fiducial 22–24 May 2017 603 16% 48% 7% 20% 9%

Gard's 2nd

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
Abs. Danielle Floutier
FI
Béatrice Leccia
EELV
Marie Sara
MoDemLREM
Pascale Mourrut
LR
Gilbert Collard
FN
Others
2017 election 11 Jun 2017 50.24% 13.07% 2.99% 32.16% 14.22% 32.27% 5.30%
Ifop-Fiducial 30–31 May 2017 600 14% 3% 31% 17.5% 32% 2.5%

Gironde's 2nd

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
Abs. Servane Crussière
PCF
Aude Darchy
FI
Michèle Delaunay
PS
Pierre Hurmic
EELV
Catherine Fabre
LREM
Anne Walryck
LRUDI
Guillaume Boraud
DVD
Julie Rechagneux
FN
Others
2017 election 11 Jun 2017 48.92% 1.90% 13.28% 10.69% 8.04% 39.78% 15.79% 1.22% 3.76% 5.54%
Ifop-Fiducial 5–7 Jun 2017 691 2% 17% 14% 5.5% 35% 15% 1.5% 5% 5%

Landes's 1st

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
Abs. Céline Piot
FI
Renaud Lagrave
PS
Geneviève Darrieussecq
MoDemLREM
Marie-Françoise Nadau
LRUDI
Christophe Bardin
FN
Others
2017 election 11 Jun 2017 45.72% 12.04% 13.46% 43.34% 11.60% 11.48% 8.07%
Ifop-Fiducial 1–5 Jun 2017 687 13% 12% 43% 10% 12% 10%

Pas-de-Calais's 11th

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
Abs. Hervé Poly
PCF
Jean-Pierre Carpentier
FI
Philippe Kemel
PS
Marine Tondelier
EELV
Anne Roquet
LREM
Alexandrine Pintus
LRUDI
Marine Le Pen
FN
Others
2017 election 11 Jun 2017 53.33% 5.00% 9.97% 10.83% 3.55% 16.43% 4.18% 46.02% 4.01%
Ifop-Fiducial 1–3 Jun 2017 601 4% 13.5% 14.5% 2.5% 15.5% 4% 44% 2%

Pyrénées-Atlantiques's 4th

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
Abs. Robert Bareille
PCF
Didier Bayens
FI
Bernard Uthurry
PS
Véronique Zenoni
EELV
Loïc Corrégé
LREM
Jean Lassalle
Résistons!
Laurent Inchauspé
UDI
Marc Oxibar
LR
Gilles Hustaix
FN
Anita Lopepe
EH Bai
Others
2017 election 11 Jun 2017 41.47% 3.35% 7.67% 12.63% 2.69% 25.41% 17.71% 5.42% 9.66% 4.28% 8.51% 2.68%
Ifop-Fiducial 29 May–2 Jun 2017 689 4.5% 9% 16% 1.5% 24.5% 16% 3.5% 11.5% 5% 7% 1.5%

Rhône's 6th

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
Abs. Laurent Legendre
FI
Najat Vallaud-Belkacem
PS
Béatrice Vessiller
EELV
Bruno Bonnell
LREM
Emmanuelle Haziza
LRUDI
Stéphane Poncet
FN
Others
2017 election 11 Jun 2017 53.24% 14.71% 16.54% 4.75% 36.69% 10.67% 9.03% 7.60%
Ifop-Fiducial 16–18 May 2017 601 17% 19% 4% 30% 13% 12% 5%

Paris's 2nd

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
Abs. Lorraine Questiaux
PCF
Anne-Françoise Prunières
FI
Marine Rosset
PS
Gilles Seignan
EELV
Gilles Le Gendre
LREM
Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet
LRUDI
Henri Guaino
DVD
Jean-Pierre Lecoq
DVD
Pauline Betton
PCD
Manon Bouquin
FN
Others
2017 election 11 Jun 2017 37.91% 1.35% 5.96% 6.11% 4.72% 41.81% 18.13% 4.51% 9.17% 1.26% 2.31% 4.66%
Ifop-Fiducial 29–31 May 2017 552 1% 7.5% 7% 3% 42% 24% 3% 7% 1% 3% 1.5%

Essonne's 1st

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
Abs. Michel Nouaille
PCFEELV
Farida Amrani
FI
Manuel Valls
DVG
Alban Bakary
DVD
Caroline Varin
LRUDI
Jean-Luc Raymond
DVD
David Soullard
DLF
Danielle Oger
FN
Dieudonné M'bala M'bala
SE
Others
2017 election 11 Jun 2017 59.89% 7.58% 17.61% 25.45% 7.83% 11.93% 6.89% 2.40% 10.20% 3.84% 6.27%
Ifop-Fiducial 22–23 May 2017 605 6.5% 26% 30% 2.5% 12% 0.5% 3% 12% 3% 4.5%

Hauts-de-Seine's 9th

The campaign of Marie-Laure Godin commissioned and released a PollingVox survey in this constituency, after which the campaign of Thierry Solère published an Ifop poll contradicting its findings.[3]

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
Abs. Fabienne Gambiez
PRGUDEPS
Aminata Niakate
EELV
Thierry Solère
LRUDI
Marie-Laure Godin
DVD
Nina Smarandi
FN
Others
2017 election 11 Jun 2017 46.66% 6.37% 5.01% 42.60% 31.38% 3.21% 11.43%
Ifop 2–3 Jun 2017 597 8% 4.5% 44% 29% 4% 10.5%
PollingVox 24–31 May 2017 564 7% 32% 42% 9%

Second round

Bouches-du-Rhône's 4th

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
Abs. Jean-Luc Mélenchon
FI
Patrick Mennucci
PSEELV
Corinne Versini
LREM
2017 election 18 Jun 2017 64.22% 59.85% 40.15%
Harris Interactive 17–18 May 2017 616 56% 44%
Ifop-Fiducial 17–18 May 2017 602 53% 47%
61% 39%

Charente-Maritime's 1st

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
Abs. Cédric Ruffié
FI
Olivier Falorni
DVG
Otilia Ferreira
MoDemLREM
2017 election 18 Jun 2017 56.58% 69.02% 30.98%
Ifop-Fiducial 2–6 Jun 2017 685 55% 45%
20% 41% 39%

Eure's 1st

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
Abs. Bruno Le Maire
LREM
Fabienne Delacour
FN
2017 election 18 Jun 2017 57.74% 64.53% 35.47%
Ifop-Fiducial 22–24 May 2017 603 76% 24%

Gard's 2nd

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
Abs. Marie Sara
MoDemLREM
Pascale Mourrut
LR
Gilbert Collard
FN
2017 election 18 Jun 2017 51.79% 49.84% 50.16%
Ifop-Fiducial 30–31 May 2017 600 56% 44%
41% 22% 37%

Landes's 3rd

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
Abs. Boris Vallaud
PS
Jean-Pierre Steiner
LREM
2017 election 18 Jun 2017 46.78% 50.75% 49.25%
Ifop-Fiducial 13–14 Jun 2017 651 46% 54%

Pyrénées-Atlantiques's 4th

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
Abs. Bernard Uthurry
PS
Loïc Corrégé
LREM
Jean Lassalle
Résistons!
2017 election 18 Jun 2017 46.63% 47.21% 52.79%
Ifop-Fiducial 29 May–2 Jun 2017 689 31% 35% 34%

Rhône's 6th

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
Abs. Laurent Legendre
FI
Najat Vallaud-Belkacem
PS
Bruno Bonnell
LREM
2017 election 18 Jun 2017 59.58% 39.82% 60.18%
Ifop-Fiducial 16–18 May 2017 601 40% 60%
38% 62%

Paris's 2nd

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
Abs. Gilles Le Gendre
LREM
Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet
LRUDI
2017 election 18 Jun 2017 48.47% 54.53% 45.47%
Ifop-Fiducial 29–31 May 2017 552 68% 32%

Essonne's 1st

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
Abs. Farida Amrani
FI
Manuel Valls
DVG
2017 election 18 Jun 2017 63.45% 49.70% 50.30%
Ifop-Fiducial 22–23 May 2017 605 50% 50%

Hauts-de-Seine's 9th

The campaign of Marie-Laure Godin commissioned and released a PollingVox survey in this constituency, after which the campaign of Thierry Solère published an Ifop poll contradicting its findings.[3]

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
Abs. Thierry Solère
LRUDI
Marie-Laure Godin
DVD
2017 election 18 Jun 2017 55.62% 56.53% 43.47%
PollingVox 24–31 May 2017 564 43% 57%

Pre-2017 polling

First round

Before their unification under the umbrella of the Union of Democrats and Independents, the New Centre, Radical Party, and Centrist Alliance were counted individually in 2012, and are included in the miscellaneous right total for that year, which would otherwise be 3.51%. The total for miscellaneous candidates in 2012 also includes regionalist, ecologist, and far-right candidates who were not counted separately in the CSA poll, and would otherwise be 0.52%.

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
Abs. EXG FG MRC PS PRG DVG EELV MoDem UDI UMP DVD DLF FN DIV
CSA 18–20 Nov 2014 955 1% 8% 18% 7% 12% 24% 1% 23% 6%
2012 election 10 Jun 2012 42.78% 0.98% 6.91% (DVG) 29.35% 1.65% 3.40% 5.46% 1.77% 27.12% 7.54% (DVD) 13.60% 2.23%

Second round seat projections

Before their unification under the umbrella of the Union of Democrats and Independents, the New Centre, Radical Party, and Centrist Alliance were counted individually in 2012, and are included in the miscellaneous right total for that year, which would otherwise be 15. The total for miscellaneous candidates in 2012 also includes regionalist and far-right candidates who were not counted separately in the CSA poll, and would otherwise be 0.

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
Abs. FG MRC PS PRG DVG EELV MoDem UDI UMP DVD DLF FN DIV
CSA 18–20 Nov 2014 955 56–66 485–505 14–24 1–3
2012 election 17 Jun 2012 44.60% 10 (DVG) 280 12 22 17 2 194 35 (DVD) 2 3

See also

References

  1. ^ Laurent de Boissieu (2 January 2018). "Plaidoyer pour la rationalisation de l'offre électorale". Revue politique et parlementaire. Retrieved 26 February 2018.
  2. ^ "Législatives 2017 : " En Marche " vers une majorité ?". OpinionWay. 3 May 2017. Retrieved 26 February 2018.
  3. ^ a b Jean-Baptiste Garat (5 June 2017). "Édouard Philippe en campagne pour Solère, un candidat LR "constructif"". Le Figaro. Retrieved 26 February 2018.

External links

This page was last edited on 9 December 2021, at 09:42
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