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A special election for New York's 11th congressional district was held on May 5, 2015, to fill the vacancy created by the resignation of Michael Grimm. Grimm, a member of the Republican Party, announced on December 30, 2014, that he would resign from the House effective January 5, 2015, and not take his seat for a third term following his guilty plea for tax evasion. On May 5, 2015, Republican candidate Dan Donovan defeated his Democratic challenger Vincent Gentile in the election and filled the vacant seat.[1]
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Congressional Elections: Crash Course Government and Politics #6
Transcription
Hi, I'm Craig and this is Crash Course Government and Politics, and today we're going to talk about what is, if you ask the general public, the most important part of politics: elections. If you ask me, it's hair styles. Look at Martin Van Buren's sideburns, how could he not be elected? Americans are kind of obsessed with elections, I mean when this was being recorded in early 2015, television, news and the internet were already talking about who would be Democrat and Republican candidates for president in 2016. And many of the candidates have unofficially been campaigning for years. I've been campaigning; your grandma's been campaigning. Presidential elections are exciting and you can gamble on them. Is that legal, can you gamble on them, Stan? Anyway, why we're so obsessed with them is a topic for another day. Right now I'm gonna tell you that the fixation on the presidential elections is wrong, but not because the president doesn't matter. No, today we're gonna look at the elections of the people that are supposed to matter the most, Congress. Constitutionally at least, Congress is the most important branch of government because it is the one that is supposed to be the most responsive to the people. One of the main reasons it's so responsive, at least in theory, is the frequency of elections. If a politician has to run for office often, he or she, because unlike the president we have women serving in Congress, kind of has to pay attention to what the constituents want, a little bit, maybe. By now, I'm sure that most of you have memorized the Constitution, so you recognize that despite their importance in the way we discuss politics, elections aren't really a big feature of the Constitution. Except of course for the ridiculously complex electoral college system for choosing the president, which we don't even want to think about for a few episodes. In fact, here's what the Constitution says about Congressional Elections in Article 1 Section 2: "The House of Representatives shall be composed of members chosen every second year by the people of the several states, and the electors in each state shall have the qualifications requisite for electors of the most numerous branch of the state legislature." So the Constitution does establish that the whole of the house is up for election every 2 years, and 1/3 of the senate is too, but mainly it leaves the scheduling and rules of elections up to the states. The actual rules of elections, like when the polls are open and where they actually are, as well as the registration requirements, are pretty much up to the states, subject to some federal election law. If you really want to know the rules in your state, I'm sure that someone at the Board of Elections, will be happy to explain them to you. Really, you should give them a call; they're very, very lonely. In general though, here's what we can say about American elections. First stating the super obvious, in order to serve in congress, you need to win an election. In the House of Representatives, each election district chooses a single representative, which is why we call them single-member districts. The number of districts is determined by the Census, which happens every 10 years, and which means that elections ending in zeros are super important, for reasons that I'll explain in greater detail in a future episode. It's because of gerrymandering. The Senate is much easier to figure out because both of the state Senators are elected by the entire state. It's as if the state itself were a single district, which is true for states like Wyoming, which are so unpopulated as to have only 1 representative. Sometimes these elections are called at large elections. Before the election ever happens, you need candidates. How candidates are chosen differs from state to state, but usually it has something to do with political parties, although it doesn't have to. Why are things so complicated?! What we can say is that candidates, or at least good candidates, usually have certain characteristics. Sorry America. First off, if you are gonna run for office, you should have an unblemished record, free of, oh I don't know, felony convictions or sex scandals, except maybe in Louisiana or New York. This might lead to some pretty bland candidates or people who are so calculating that they have no skeletons in their closet, but we Americans are a moral people and like our candidates to reflect our ideals rather than our reality. The second characteristic that a candidate must possess is the ability to raise money. Now some candidates are billionaires and can finance their own campaigns. But most billionaires have better things to do: buying yachts, making even more money, building money forts, buying more yachts, so they don't have time to run for office. But most candidates get their money for their campaigns by asking for it. The ability to raise money is key, especially now, because running for office is expensive. Can I get a how expensive is it? "How expensive is it?!" Well, so expensive that the prices of elections continually rises and in 2012 winners of House races spent nearly 2 million each. Senate winners spent more than 10 million. By the time this episode airs, I'm sure the numbers will be much higher like a gajillion billion million. Money is important in winning an election, but even more important, statistically, is already being in Congress. Let's go to the Thought Bubble. The person holding an office who runs for that office again is called the incumbent and has a big advantage over any challenger. This is according to political scientists who, being almost as bad at naming things as historians, refer to this as incumbency advantage. There are a number of reasons why incumbents tend to hold onto their seats in congress, if they want to. The first is that a sitting congressman has a record to run on, which we hope includes some legislative accomplishments, although for the past few Congresses, these don't seem to matter. The record might include case work, which is providing direct services to constituents. This is usually done by congressional staffers and includes things like answering questions about how to get certain government benefits or writing recommendation letters to West Point. Congressmen can also provide jobs to constituents, which is usually a good way to get them to vote for you. These are either government jobs, kind of rare these days, called patronage or indirect employment through government contracts for programs within a Congressman's district. These programs are called earmarks or pork barrel programs, and they are much less common now because Congress has decided not to use them any more, sort of. The second advantage that incumbents have is that they have a record of winning elections, which if you think about it, is pretty obvious. Being a proven winner makes it easier for a congressmen to raise money, which helps them win, and long term incumbents tend to be more powerful in Congress which makes it even easier for them to raise money and win. The Constitution give incumbents one structural advantage too. Each elected congressman is allowed $100,000 and free postage to send out election materials. This is called the franking privilege. It's not so clear how great an advantage this is in the age of the internet, but at least according to the book The Victory Lab, direct mail from candidates can be surprisingly effective. How real is this incumbency advantage? Well if you look at the numbers, it seems pretty darn real. Over the past 60 years, almost 90% of members of The House of Representatives got re-elected. The Senate has been even more volatile, but even at the low point in 1980 more than 50% of sitting senators got to keep their jobs. Thanks, Thought Bubble. You're so great. So those are some of the features of congressional elections. Now, if you'll permit me to get a little politically sciencey, I'd like to try to explain why elections are so important to the way that Congressmen and Senators do their jobs. In 1974, political scientist David Mayhew published a book in which he described something he called "The Electoral Connection." This was the idea that Congressmen were primarily motivated by the desire to get re-elected, which intuitively makes a lot of sense, even though I'm not sure what evidence he had for this conclusion. Used to be able to get away with that kind of thing I guess, clearly David may-not-hew to the rules of evidence, pun [rim shot], high five, no. Anyway Mayhew's research methodology isn't as important as his idea itself because The Electoral Connection provides a frame work for understanding congressman's activities. Mayhew divided representatives' behaviors and activities into three categories. The first is advertising; congressmen work to develop their personal brand so that they are recognizable to voters. Al D'Amato used to be know in New York as Senator Pothole, because he was able to bring home so much pork that he could actually fix New York's streets. Not by filling them with pork, money, its money, remember pork barrel spending? The second activity is credit claiming; Congressmen get things done so that they can say they got them done. A lot of case work and especially pork barrel spending are done in the name of credit claiming. Related to credit claiming, but slightly different, is position taking. This means making a public judgmental statement on something likely to be of interest to voters. Senators can do this through filibusters. Representatives can't filibuster, but they can hold hearings, publicly supporting a hearing is a way of associating yourself with an idea without having to actually try to pass legislation. And of course they can go on the TV, especially on Sunday talk shows. What's a TV, who even watches TV? Now the idea of The Electoral Connection doesn't explain every action a member of Congress takes; sometimes they actually make laws to benefit the public good or maybe solve problems, huh, what an idea! But Mayhew's idea gives us a way of thinking about Congressional activity, an analytical lens that connects what Congressmen actually do with how most of us understand Congressmen, through elections. So the next time you see a Congressmen call for a hearing on a supposed horrible scandal or read about a Senator threatening to filibuster a policy that may have significant popular support, ask yourself, "Is this Representative claiming credit or taking a position, and how will this build their brand?" In other words: what's the electoral connection and how will whatever they're doing help them get elected? This might feel a little cynical, but the reality is Mayhew's thesis often seems to fit with today's politics. Thanks for watching, see you next week. Vote for me; I'm on the TV. I'm not -- I'm on the YouTube. Crash Course: Government and Politics is produced in association with PBS Digital Studios. Support for Crash Course US Government comes from Voqal. Voqal supports nonprofits that use technology and media to advance social equity. Learn more about their mission and initiatives at Voqal.org. Crash Course is made by all of these nice people. Thanks for watching. That guy isn't nice.
Background
In April 2014, Grimm was indicted on twenty felony charges, including mail and wire fraud, perjury, obstruction of justice, employing illegal immigrants, and conspiring to defraud the United States after it was found that he under-reported revenues and employee wages relating to a restaurant he owned. He surrendered to the police and was released on $400,000 bail.[2] Vowing his innocence, Grimm continued his campaign for reelection,[3] and defeated Domenic Recchia, the Democratic Party nominee, by 53%, Grimm's highest margin in his congressional career.[4]
On December 23, 2014, Grimm pleaded guilty to one charge of felony tax evasion. All other charges were dropped as part of the plea bargain.[5][6] Grimm indicated that he would not resign his seat.[7] However, on December 30, Grimm announced that he would resign from Congress on January 5, 2015, rather than be sworn in for his elected term.[8][9] According to the U.S. Constitution (I.2.iv), Governor Andrew Cuomo is legally required to call a special election to fill the seat, which under the terms of the New York Constitution is to be held within 70 to 80 days of his announcement.[10] On February 2, Cuomo, who had given no indication of when he would call the special election for, said that he was "looking at it now" but didn't have a timeframe for setting a date.[11] Staten Island Attorney Ronald Castorina, Jr. filed a lawsuit on behalf of 8 Plaintiffs from Brooklyn and Staten Island, Republicans, Democrats, Independents, and Non-Enrolled parties, to force Cuomo to call a special election[12] and on February 17, Judge Jack B. Weinstein of the United States District Court for the Eastern District of New York ordered Cuomo to either schedule the election or explain why he was delaying, or he would schedule the election himself.[13] Cuomo's office replied that he would "announce the date" for the special election "shortly".[14] On February 20, Cuomo announced that the election would be held on May 5.[15]
As it was a special election, primary elections did not occur. The nominees were selected by local party leaders in Brooklyn and Staten Island .[16]
Republican nomination
Candidates
Nominated
- Dan Donovan, Staten Island District Attorney and nominee for New York Attorney General in 2010[17][18][19]
Declined
- Vito Fossella, former U.S. Representative[20]
- Nicole Malliotakis, state assemblywoman[21][22]
Democratic nomination
Candidates
Nominated
Not nominated
- Amber Adler, community advocate[24]
- Lorie Honor, businesswoman[25]
- Arne Mattsson, nominee for the 13th congressional district in 2002[26]
- Carlo Scissura, president of the Brooklyn Chamber of Commerce[27]
- John Sollazzo, vice chairman of the Staten Island Democratic Committee[28]
Declined
- William Colton, state assemblyman[29]
- Michael Cusick, state assemblyman[30][31]
- Robert Holst, electrician and middle class advocate[32]
- Michael McMahon, former U.S. Representative[33]
Third parties
Besides the Democratic and Republican parties, the Conservative, Green, Independence, Reform, Women's Equality and Working Families parties are qualified New York parties. Under the terms of electoral fusion, a candidate may be nominated by multiple parties.
Conservative
Nominated
- Dan Donovan, Staten Island District Attorney and Republican nominee for New York Attorney General in 2010[34]
Declined
- Nicole Malliotakis, state assemblywoman[35]
- James Molinaro, former Staten Island Borough President[36][37]
Green
Nominated
- James Lane, Internet media professional and nominee for New York City Public Advocate in 2013[38] He is a member of the Adoptee Rights, Black Lives Matter and Stop Mass Incarceration movements. His current titles include: director of analytics & implementation, GroupM and editor-in-chief, Hot Indie News
Independence
Nominated
- Dan Donovan, Staten Island District Attorney and Republican nominee for New York Attorney General in 2010[39]
Not nominated
- Robert McKenna, retired New York City Police Lieutenant[40]
Declined
- Nicole Malliotakis, state assemblywoman[35]
Reform
- No nominee. Presumptive nominee Dan Donovan refused the line after pressure from the Conservative Party.[41]
Working Families
Nominated
General election
Predictions
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[43] | Solid R | April 3, 2015 |
Inside Elections[44] | Solid R | January 28, 2015 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[45] | Likely R | January 5, 2015 |
Polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Dan Donovan (R) |
Michael Cusick (D) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Global Strategy Group* | January 16–18, 2015 | 404 | ± 4.9% | 48% | 28% | — | 24% |
- * Poll commissioned by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee
Finance Reports
Campaign Finance Reports through April 15 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on Hand | Debt |
Vincent Gentile | $195,724 | $79,697 | $116,026 | $0 |
Dan Donovan | $614,775 | $152,533 | $461,781 | $120,760 |
James Lane | $11,095 | $3,567 | $7,527 | $0 |
Source: OpenSecrets[46] |
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Dan Donovan | 19,065 | 44.85 | |
Conservative | Dan Donovan | 4,289 | 10.09 | |
Independence | Dan Donovan | 1,443 | 3.39 | |
Total | Dan Donovan | 24,797 | 58.33 | |
Democratic | Vincent Gentile | 15,595 | 36.69 | |
Working Families | Vincent Gentile | 1,454 | 3.42 | |
Total | Vincent Gentile | 17,049 | 40.11 | |
Green | James Lane | 567 | 1.33 | |
Write-in | Write-in | 96 | 0.23 | |
Total votes | 42,509 | 100.0 | ||
Republican hold |
County results
Dan Donovan Republican |
Vincent Gentile Democrat |
James Lane Green |
Write-in Write-in |
Total | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
County | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes |
Kings (Brooklyn) | 3,570 | 37.74% | 5,745 | 60.73% | 130 | 1.37% | 15 | 0.16% | 9,460 |
Richmond (Staten Island) | 21,227 | 64.23% | 11,304 | 34.20% | 437 | 1.32% | 81 | 0.25% | 33,049 |
See also
References
- ^ Alexander Burns (May 5, 2015). "Donovan Wins Race for House Seat Grimm Vacated, A.P. Says". The New York Times. Retrieved May 5, 2015.
- ^ Stephanie Clifford (April 28, 2014). "Grimm, Staten Island Lawmaker, Is Charged With Fraud". The New York Times. Retrieved January 2, 2015.
- ^ Jason Horowitz (October 14, 2014). "Under Indictment, Grimm Fights to Keep His Congressional Seat". The New York Times. Retrieved January 2, 2015.
- ^ Jason Horowitz (November 4, 2014). "Michael Grimm Overcomes Democrats' Campaign to Capture His Congressional Seat". The New York Times. Retrieved January 2, 2015.
- ^ "Rep. Grimm pleads guilty to felony count of tax evasion". New York Daily News. December 23, 2014.
- ^ "Grimm Stipulation of Facts". Retrieved January 2, 2015.
- ^ "Rep. Michael Grimm apologizes for tax evasion, but vows to stay in office". December 24, 2014. Retrieved January 2, 2015.
- ^ "Michael Grimm to resign from Congress: sources". NY Daily News. Retrieved December 30, 2014.
- ^ "Michael Grimm To Resign From Congress". The Huffington Post. Retrieved December 30, 2014.
- ^ Rachel Shapiro (December 30, 2014). "What happens after Rep. Michael Grimm resigns -- from special election to sentencing". Staten Island Advance. Retrieved January 4, 2015.
- ^ Ross Barkan (February 2, 2015). "Andrew Cuomo Still Won't Set a Date for Election to Replace Michael Grimm". The New York Observer. Retrieved February 4, 2015.
- ^ Rachel Shapiro (February 5, 2015). "Lawsuit looks to force Gov. Andrew Cuomo to set special election for Congress". SILive.com. Retrieved February 9, 2015.
- ^ John M. Annese (February 17, 2015). "Federal judge orders Gov. Andrew Cuomo to set a date for special congressional election". SILive.com. Retrieved February 18, 2015.
- ^ John M. Annese (February 17, 2015). "Cuomo's office says special election announcement will happen 'shortly,' but doesn't specify timeline". SILive.com. Retrieved February 18, 2015.
- ^ Emily Cahn (February 20, 2015). "Cuomo Schedules New York Special Election (Updated)". Roll Call. Retrieved April 18, 2015.
- ^ "The Wildest Story In The Republican Party Right Now". Business Insider. December 23, 2014. Retrieved December 30, 2014.
- ^ "District Attorney Daniel Donovan emerges as GOP front-runner for seat in Congress". SILive. December 30, 2014. Retrieved January 7, 2015.
- ^ "Staten Island DA Daniel Donovan announces bid for Congress". SILive. December 30, 2014. Retrieved January 10, 2015.
- ^ "District Attorney Daniel Donovan selected as GOP candidate for Staten Island congressional seat". SILive. January 10, 2015. Retrieved January 10, 2015.
- ^ "Former Congressman Vito Fossella doesn't want his old seat back". SILive. December 30, 2014. Retrieved December 30, 2014.
- ^ "Malliotakis to Catsimatidis: 'I'm inclined' to run for Michael Grimm's Congressional seat". SILive. January 5, 2015. Retrieved January 7, 2015.
- ^ "Malliotakis backs Donovan for Congress". Capital New York. January 12, 2015. Retrieved January 13, 2015.
- ^ Rachel Shapiro (February 27, 2015). "Staten Island Democrats select Vincent Gentile as candidate for Congress". Staten Island Advance. Retrieved March 2, 2015.
- ^ Rachel Shapiro (February 16, 2015). "Another Brooklyn Democrat emerges as a possible candidate for empty seat in Congress". Staten Island Advance. Retrieved February 18, 2015.
- ^ "Staten Island Democrats will interview potential candidates for Congress Feb. 11". SILive. February 2, 2015. Retrieved February 9, 2015.
- ^ Rachel Shapiro (February 11, 2015). "Staten Island Democrats interview three people but still have no candidate for Congress". Staten Island Advance. Retrieved February 18, 2015.
- ^ Paula Katinas (December 29, 2014). "Grimm resignation fires up speculation on replacement". Brooklyn Daily Eagle. Retrieved January 8, 2015.
- ^ Rachel Shapiro (February 13, 2015). "'Mr. Democrat' John Sollazzo wants to run for Congress on Staten Island". Staten Island Advance. Retrieved February 18, 2015.
- ^ Rachel Shapiro (February 23, 2015). "Brooklyn Assemblyman William Colton bows out of race for Congress". Staten Island Advance. Retrieved February 23, 2015.
- ^ "Assemblyman Michael Cusick 'still looking' at run for Congress". SILive. December 30, 2014. Retrieved January 7, 2015.
- ^ "Assemblyman Michael Cusick announces he is not running for Congress". SILive. January 25, 2015. Retrieved January 26, 2015.
- ^ Rachel Shapiro (February 23, 2015). "Robert Holst bows out of Congress race; leaves Vincent Gentile as lone Democrat". Staten Island Advance. Retrieved February 23, 2015.
- ^ Colby Hamilton (February 13, 2015). "Sources: Seddio backs Colton for special election". Capital New York. Retrieved February 18, 2015.
- ^ Rachel Shapiro (January 20, 2015). "DA Daniel Donovan gets nod from Brooklyn Conservatives in congressional race". Staten Island Advance. Retrieved January 21, 2015.
- ^ a b Rachel Shapiro (January 13, 2015). "Nicole Malliotakis: Daniel Donovan 'would be a good voice for us in Washington'". Staten Island Advance. Retrieved January 21, 2015.
- ^ "Calling it 'very tempting,' former Borough President James Molinaro considers run for Congress". SILive. December 31, 2014. Retrieved December 31, 2014.
- ^ "'I'm not interested': Former Borough President James Molinaro decides not to run for Congress". SILive. January 2, 2015. Retrieved January 5, 2015.
- ^ Rachel Shapiro (March 3, 2015). "Brooklynite James Lane emerges as Green Party candidate for Congress in 11th district". Staten Island Advance. Retrieved March 3, 2015.
- ^ Rachel Shapiro (March 2, 2015). "Independence Party backs Daniel Donovan for Congress". Staten Island Advance. Retrieved March 2, 2015.
- ^ Anna Sanders (January 7, 2015). "Dark horses and off-Islanders: Meet more people who want Michael Grimm's old seat in Congress". Staten Island Advance. Retrieved January 8, 2015.
- ^ Lovett, Ken (March 9, 2015). Dan Donovan ignores Reform Party at Conservative Party chair's request. New York Daily News. Retrieved March 9, 2015.
- ^ Nick Reisman (March 3, 2015). "Gentile Receives WFP Nod". State of Politics. Retrieved March 3, 2015.
- ^ Dave Wasserman (April 3, 2015). "House Special Election Updates: IL-18, MS-01 and NY-11". Retrieved January 2, 2022.
- ^ "Democrats Looking Beyond New York 11 Special Election". The Rothenberg Political Report. January 28, 2015. Retrieved January 4, 2022.
- ^ Kondik, Kyle (January 5, 2015). "NY-11 Special: Republicans Well-Positioned to Hold One of Nation's Most Distinctive Districts". Retrieved January 5, 2022.
- ^ Open Secrets | Elections | U.S. Senate opensecrets.org
- ^ "11th Congressional District". New York Board of Elections. Retrieved July 24, 2019.
- ^ "Statement and Return Report for Certification" (PDF). Board of Elections in the City of New York. Retrieved July 24, 2016.