Interrupted time series analysis (ITS), sometimes known as quasi-experimental time series analysis, is a method of statistical analysis involving tracking a long-term period before and after a point of intervention to assess the intervention's effects. The time series refers to the data over the period, while the interruption is the intervention, which is a controlled external influence or set of influences.[1][2] Effects of the intervention are evaluated by changes in the level and slope of the time series and statistical significance of the intervention parameters.[3] Interrupted time series design is the design of experiments based on the interrupted time series approach.
The method is used in various areas of research, such as:
- political science: impact of changes in laws on the behavior of people;[2] (e.g., Effectiveness of sex offender registration policies in the United States)
- economics: impact of changes in credit controls on borrowing behavior;[2]
- sociology: impact of experiments in income maintenance on the behavior of participants in welfare programs;[2]
- history: impact of major historical events on the behavior of those affected by the events;[2]
- psychology: impact of expressing emotional experiences on online content;[4]
- medicine: in medical research, medical treatment is an intervention whose effect are to be studied;
- marketing research: to analyze the effect of "designed market interventions" (e.g., advertising) on sales.[5]
- environmental sciences: impacts of human activities on environmental quality and ecosystem dynamics (e.g., forest logging on local climate).[6][7]
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Time Series Designs
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References
- ^ Ferron, John; Rendina‐Gobioff, Gianna (2005), "Interrupted Time Series Design", Encyclopedia of Statistics in Behavioral Science, American Cancer Society, doi:10.1002/0470013192.bsa312, ISBN 978-0-470-01319-9, retrieved 2020-03-09
- ^ a b c d e McDowall, David; McCleary, Richard; Meidinger, Errol; Hay, Richard A. Jr. (August 1980). Interrupted Time Series Analysis. SAGE. pp. 5–6. ISBN 978-0-8039-1493-3.
- ^ Handbook of Psychology, Research Methods in Psychology, p. 582
- ^ Bollen; et al. (2019). "The minute-scale dynamics of online emotions reveal the effects of affect labeling". Nature Human Behaviour. 3 (1): 92–100. doi:10.1038/s41562-018-0490-5. PMID 30932057. S2CID 56399577.
- ^ Brodersen; et al. (2015). "Inferring causal impact using Bayesian structural time-series models". Annals of Applied Statistics. 9: 247–274. arXiv:1506.00356. doi:10.1214/14-AOAS788. S2CID 2879370. Retrieved 21 March 2019.
- ^ Li, Yang; Liu, Yanlan; Bohrer, Gil; Cai, Yongyang; Wilson, Aaron; Hu, Tongxi; Wang, Zhihao; Zhao, Kaiguang (2022). "Impacts of forest loss on local climate across the conterminous United States: Evidence from satellite time-series observation" (PDF). Science of the Total Environment. 802: 149651. Bibcode:2022ScTEn.802n9651L. doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.149651. PMID 34525747.
- ^ Li, Yang; Zhao, Kaiguang; Hu, Tongxi; Zhang, Xuesong. "BEAST: A Bayesian Ensemble Algorithm for Change-Point Detection and Time Series Decomposition". GitHub.
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