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File:CoViD-19 IE.svg

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Original file(SVG file, nominally 702 × 524 pixels, file size: 68 KB)

Summary

Description
Logarithmic plot of detected cases (blue) and deaths (red) from CoViD-19 in Ireland, based on numbers reported by World Health Organization, updated to March 26, 2020 [1]
Date
Source Own work
Author Micheletb
SVG development
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This chart was created with an unknown SVG tool.

Total confirmed cases (blue), total deaths (red), and reported deaths on the last ten days (dotted black).

This chart has been made using the WHO daily reports (see https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports/). Though countries are committed to report to WHO every day, some country reports are missing, leading to "steps" in the curve. This is caused by messy report and can't really be corrected. Please note that due to time zones and time of report, the figure for a given day according to WHO may not be that of official sources.

The growth of a pandemic in its initial stage is exponential, meaning that the percentage of increase from one day to another is (roughly) constant. This, in turn, means that in a semi-logarithmic plot, the slope is (roughly) constant, therefore the curve is (roughly) a straight segment. In the end of a pandemic, no additional victims are reported, and the curve is a flat horizontal. In between, the public health policy is to bend the curve down. A change in the policy or its efficiency leads to a change in the slope.

To describe the pandemic's evolution, a daily report of victims or deaths is not really informative in the aftermath. The relevant description is, where are the slope changes, which indicate a change in the pandemic's regime? Those inflection points are the limits within which the description of what has occurred can be homogeneous. Most countries start with very weakly sloped curve, almost horizontal, with few SARS-CoV-2-positive patients : that is the contained stage. Then the curve rises all of a sudden, this is the local starting point of the pandemic, the virus has escaped in the wild and is not contained in the hospital any more. Some weeks later the semilog curve has a first inflection point, this is the effect of measures taken at the end of the "wild" phase, which slows the growth regime. There may be some more regime changes before the curve bends downwards towards very low values, which is more or less the (local) end of the pandemic.

Those intervals, where the curve is (roughly) a straight segment, are best seen when they are illustrated by a reference thin straight line. This "best fit" line is a standard statistical function of the data; and if the segment is straight enough, the choice of starting and ending point for the segment makes little difference. Even when the curve does slope downwards and no straight segment can be identified, a straight reference line that underlines the tangent at a point is useful in judging the curvature itself, though the tangent point is of course arbitrary in that case.

Please do not use these "best fit" lines for extrapolation : the mathematics of epidemics involves many different effects and the modelling needs to take into account many different uncertainties. Whatever the slope of the curve is at a given time, it will eventually curve down (switch to a horizontal). In the case of the COVID-19 pandemic, the values may increase again with repeated peaks over the 12-18 months until vaccines are judged to be safe and are mass-produced and provided to the world's population.


Licensing

I, the copyright holder of this work, hereby publish it under the following license:
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attribution share alike
You are free:
  • to share – to copy, distribute and transmit the work
  • to remix – to adapt the work
Under the following conditions:
  • attribution – You must give appropriate credit, provide a link to the license, and indicate if changes were made. You may do so in any reasonable manner, but not in any way that suggests the licensor endorses you or your use.
  • share alike – If you remix, transform, or build upon the material, you must distribute your contributions under the same or compatible license as the original.

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20 March 2020

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7c1bfadccb5f2d17cc210abf616628dee1333d03

69,839 byte

524 pixel

702 pixel

File history

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Date/TimeThumbnailDimensionsUserComment
current17:43, 2 November 2020Thumbnail for version as of 17:43, 2 November 2020702 × 524 (68 KB)Micheletb
06:56, 12 October 2020Thumbnail for version as of 06:56, 12 October 2020702 × 524 (65 KB)Micheletb
06:37, 30 July 2020Thumbnail for version as of 06:37, 30 July 2020705 × 528 (47 KB)Micheletb
08:28, 24 July 2020Thumbnail for version as of 08:28, 24 July 2020705 × 528 (47 KB)Micheletb
08:48, 13 July 2020Thumbnail for version as of 08:48, 13 July 2020705 × 528 (50 KB)Micheletb
08:09, 7 July 2020Thumbnail for version as of 08:09, 7 July 2020705 × 528 (49 KB)Micheletb
10:20, 1 July 2020Thumbnail for version as of 10:20, 1 July 2020705 × 528 (46 KB)Micheletb
09:12, 24 June 2020Thumbnail for version as of 09:12, 24 June 2020705 × 528 (43 KB)Micheletb
08:23, 15 June 2020Thumbnail for version as of 08:23, 15 June 2020705 × 528 (41 KB)Micheletb
06:18, 9 June 2020Thumbnail for version as of 06:18, 9 June 2020705 × 528 (37 KB)Micheletb
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Metadata

Basis of this page is in Wikipedia. Text is available under the CC BY-SA 3.0 Unported License. Non-text media are available under their specified licenses. Wikipedia® is a registered trademark of the Wikimedia Foundation, Inc. WIKI 2 is an independent company and has no affiliation with Wikimedia Foundation.