Democratic Renewal Party (Angola)

Transcription

>> --COMMITTEE AND BOARD MEMBER OF THE WORLD AFFAIRS COUNCIL OF WESTERN MICHIGAN. TONIGHT IS SESSION SEVEN OF EIGHT. WHO, IN THIS AUDIENCE, HAS BEEN HERE FOR EVERY SINGLE SESSION? ANYONE? GREAT. HOW ABOUT SIX SESSIONS? FIVE? THAT IS WONDERFUL. WE REALLY APPRECIATE IT. REMEMBER, IF YOU CAN'T MAKE IT TO A MONDAY NIGHT, WE ALSO OFFER TUESDAY 11:00 A.M. SESSION HELD AT THE FIFTH THIRD BANK BUILDING IN DOWNTOWN GRAND RAPIDS. IT IS THE SAME SPEAKER AS MONDAY NIGHT, BUT THE EMPHASIS IS ON GLOBAL BUSINESS CONCERNS. WE WOULD LIKE TO THANK OUR SPONSOR FOR THE EVENING, OUR EDUCATIONAL PARTNER, GRAND VALLEY STATE UNIVERSITY. THANK YOU VERY MUCH. (applause) TONIGHT, WE ARE VERY PLEASED TO HAVE A LOCAL PANEL OF EXPERTS TO SPEAK ON THE TOPIC OF CHINA'S INFLUENCE IN AFRICA. WE WILL BEGIN WITH MR. TIM LIANG, WHO IS SEATED TO MY RIGHT, MANAGING DIRECTOR OF ALPHAMAX ADVISORS, WHO WILL GIVE AN OVERVIEW ON CHINA'S BUSINESS INTERESTS IN AFRICA. MR. LIANG HAS MANY YEARS OF EXPERIENCE WORKING WITH CHINESE BUSINESSES, AND HE WILL BE ABLE TO GIVE INSIGHT INTO THESE CHINESE ENTERPRISES. DR. GERALD NYAMBANE WILL FOLLOW WITH EXAMPLES OF CHINA'S BUSINESS IN AFRICA. DR. NYAMBANE HAS THE PERSPECTIVE OF AN ACADEMIC. HE IS A PROFESSOR OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS, AS WELL AS HAVING PERSONAL EXPERIENCE IN EAST AFRICA. AFTER MR. LIANG AND DR. NYAMBANE SPEAK, DR. DEBORAH STEKETEE, ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR OF SUSTAINABLE BUSINESS AT AQUINAS COLLEGE AND EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR FOR THE COLLEGE'S CENTER FOR SUSTAINABILITY, WILL ASK A FEW QUESTIONS OF OUR PANELISTS. THEN IT'S TIME FOR YOUR QUESTIONS. PLEASE COME DOWN TO THE TWO MICS THAT WE HAVE IN FRONT, OR PLEASE TEXT YOUR QUESTIONS TO THE NUMBER IN THE PROGRAM, AND PLEASE LIMIT YOURSELF TO ONE QUESTION PER PERSON. PLEASE JOIN ME IN WELCOMING OUR PANELISTS THIS EVENING FOR THEIR PRESENTATION ON "FEEDING THE DRAGON-- CHINA IN AFRICA." (applause) >> GOOD EVENING. THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR GIVING ME THE OPPORTUNITY TO PRESENT TO YOU PERSPECTIVES REGARDING THE COMPLEX AND MULTIDIMENSIONAL RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN CHINA AND AFRICA. I AM A SIMPLE BUSINESS MAN, AND THIS TOPIC IS ONE THAT IS EXTREMELY IMPORTANT, BUT I AM NOT PARTICULARLY EXPERT AT IT. WE HAVE DONE ENOUGH RESEARCH AND WE HAVE A LOT OF BUSINESS AND AFRICAN EXPERIENCE, SO I HOPE YOU WILL BE ABLE TO GET SOMETHING OUT OF IT, AND WE CAN SHARE OUR IDEAS LATER ON. IN STARTING, LET ME GIVE YOU A QUICK LOOK AT WHAT CHINA IS TODAY. AND THIS IS A VERY OVERSIMPLIFIED SLIDE. HERE IS THE ABBREVIATED SNAPSHOT. THE U.S. REMAINS THE WORLD'S NUMBER ONE ECONOMY. CHINA'S G.D.P. IS HALF OF OURS. CHINA HAS THE LARGEST FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES IN THE WORLD AT $3.2 TRILLION. ITS AVERAGE GROWTH RATE OVER THE LAST 20 YEARS HAS AVERAGED 10.2 PERCENT IN CONSTANT TERMS. CHINA MAY NOW BE THE SECOND LARGEST HOLDER OF U.S. GOVERNMENT DEBT, WHICH MEANS IT IS OFF THE HOT SHEET FOR A FEW WEEKS, AND JAPAN MAY NOW BE THE LARGEST HOLDER. BUT NEVERTHELESS, IT IS A SIGNIFICANT HOLDER OF U.S. GOVERNMENT DEBT. CHINA HAS 115 BILLIONAIRES AND OVER 1 MILLION MILLIONAIRES. AND WHEN WE ARE TALKING ABOUT THIS, WE ARE TALKING ABOUT A TIMEFRAME OF 20 TO 25 YEARS. AS THE WORLD'S LARGEST FACTORY, CHINA IS THE NUMBER ONE PRODUCER OF MANY CONSUMER PRODUCTS AND, OF COURSE, TO FEED ITS OWN EXPORT INDUSTRIES AND ITS OWN DEVELOPMENT AND INDUSTRIAL NEEDS, CHINA HAS BECOME A LEADING CONSUMER OF MANY RAW AND PROCESSED MATERIALS. FOR EXAMPLE, IT IS THE NUMBER TWO IMPORTER OF OIL IN THE WORLD AFTER THE UNITED STATES. LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT AFRICA. I HAVE TO APOLOGIZE BECAUSE TONIGHT, WE ARE TALKING ABOUT AFRICA AS THOUGH IT IS A MONOLITHIC ENTITY, AND AS YOU ALL KNOW, IT CERTAINLY ISN'T. IT IS VERY, VERY DIVERSE AND COMPLEX. AFRICA IS COMPOSED OF 54 SOVEREIGN STATES. ONE BILLION PEOPLE WHO SPEAK-- WHO BELONG TO 3,000 ETHNIC GROUPS AND SPEAK 2,000 DIALECTS OR LANGUAGES. PER CAPITA INCOME RANGES FROM THE HIGHEST IN THE SEYCHELLES AT ABOUT $20,000 A YEAR TO THE LOWEST IN THE DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO AT $400 A YEAR. MANY AFRICAN COUNTRIES FACE SERIOUS CHALLENGES REGARDING POVERTY, POOR HEALTH CONDITIONS, HEALTHCARE, AND ILLITERACY, AND SOURCE OF MANY, MANY MILITARY CONFLICTS, AS YOU KNOW. BUT HERE IS SOMETHING VERY INTERESTING. AFRICA IS, BY ALL ACCOUNTS, IN A TURN AROUND. THERE ARE STRONG INDICATIONS THAT AFRICA HAS BEEN ON THE RISE SINCE 2000. G.D.P. IS GROWING SIGNIFICANTLY AND IS FORECASTED TO GROW. SEVEN AFRICAN COUNTRIES ARE AMONG THE TOP TEN FASTEST GROWING ECONOMIES IN THE WORLD. AND BEYOND IMPROVING ECONOMIES, THE PERCEPTION OF RISK IN DOING BUSINESS IN AFRICA IS IMPROVING. IMPORTANTLY, SOCIAL-POLITICAL STABILITY HAS IMPROVED IN AFRICA ON THE WHOLE, DESPITE ITS CONFLICTS, WAR, POLITICAL INSTABILITY IN A NUMBER OF COUNTRIES. AS A RESULT OF THE ABOVE, FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS INTO AFRICA ARE ACCELERATING. ACCORDING TO E & Y, ERNST & YOUNG, FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT WAS LESS THAN $10 BILLION IN JUST 2000, AND $80 BILLION IN 2010. FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT HAS INCREASED-- IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN AFRICA TO $150 BILLION BY 2015. INTERESTINGLY, 15 AFRICAN COUNTRIES TOOK 82 PERCENT OF THE NEW FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT PROJECTS BETWEEN 2003 AND 2011. CHINESE INVESTMENT IN AFRICA AMOUNTED TO $316 BILLION IN THE LAST 10, 12 YEARS OR SO. OKAY, THAT IS AFRICA IN A SNAPSHOT. CHINA AND THE OUTSIDE WORLD. I BELIEVE IN ORDER TO UNDERSTAND CHINA'S BEHAVIOR IN AFRICA AND ACTUALLY OTHER PARTS OF THE WORLD, WE HAVE TO LOOK AT A BIT OF CHINA'S SORT OF SCHIZOPHRENIC HISTORY. IT IS IMPORTANT TO UNDERSTAND HOW CHINA VIEWS THE OUTSIDE WORLD AND HOW ITS VIEW HAS BEEN INFLUENCED BY ITS OWN INTERNAL SOCIAL AND POLITICAL CHALLENGES AND STRUGGLES. WHEN THE COMMUNISTS LIBERATED-- "LIBERATED," QUOTE-UNQUOTE-- CHINA IN 1949 WITH THE CHINESE NATIONALISTS RETREATING TO TAIWAN TO ESTABLISH THE REPUBLIC OF CHINA IN TAIWAN, THE NEWLY ESTABLISHED PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CHINA WAS RECOGNIZED BY ONLY 18 COUNTRIES. CHINA RELIED HEAVILY ON ITS ALLIANCE WITH THE SOVIET UNION. WE HAD THE KOREAN WAR, THE TAIWAN STRAITS CRISIS, AND THE COLD WAR, AND CHINA WAS BASICALLY IN AN ISOLATIONIST MOOD. THE YEARS FROM 1958 TO '65 SAW TENSIONS ACCELERATE BETWEEN CHINA AND THE SOVIET UNION, RESULTING IN A RIFT BETWEEN THE TWO COUNTRIES. ARMED BORDER CONFLICT OCCURRED BETWEEN CHINA AND INDIA. CHINA CONFRONTED THE U.S. IN VIETNAM. TENSIONS BETWEEN CHINA AND TAIWAN CONTINUED, AND CHINA ACTIVELY SUPPORTED WORLDWIDE REVOLUTION. IT SAW ITSELF FACING TWO GIANT ENEMIES, THE UNITED STATES AND THE SOVIET UNION. THEN YOU MOVE ONTO THE XENOPHOBIC CULTURAL REVOLUTION WHICH BEGAN IN 1966. IT SAW CHINA RECALL ALL BUT ONE OF ITS FOREIGN AMBASSADORS BACK. THE COUNTRY EXPERIENCED FEROCIOUS INTERNAL POLITICAL AND-- POLITICAL CONFLICT AND POWER STRUGGLES. CHINA AND THE SOVIET UNION FOUGHT A BRIEF BORDER CONFLICT IN 1969. AND CHINA AGAIN WAS ALL BUT CLOSED TO THE WEST. THE PERIOD '71 TO '78 WAS FORMATIVE BECAUSE IT WITNESSED THE BEGINNING OF NORMALIZATION, THE OPENING TO THE U.S. AND THE ADMISSION OF CHINA TO THE UNITED NATIONS. IN OVERSIMPLIFIED TERMS, CHINA SAW THE RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF FOREIGN DIPLOMACY AS A MEANS OF COUNTERING WHAT IT PERCEIVED AS A SOVIET THREAT AND A SOVIET'S ATTEMPT TO ENCIRCLE IT THROUGH AFGHANISTAN, VIETNAM, AND CAMBODIA. SO WHAT CHINA DID WAS CHINA PURPOSEFULLY STARTED TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE UNITED STATES. AT THE SAME TIME, MAO PASSED AWAY IN '76, DENG XIAOPING TOOK OVER, AND DENG, THE FATHER OF CHINA'S MODERNIZATION, LAUNCHED CHINA'S FOUR MODERNIZATIONS-- AGRICULTURE, INDUSTRY, NATIONAL DEFENSE, AND SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY. IT IS VERY IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THIS PERIOD. IN '82 TO '89, CHINA SAW A RENEWAL OF ITS RELATIONS WITH MOSCOW. IT MAINTAINED HEALTHY TIES WITH THE U.S. AND IT TRIED TO ESTABLISH THIS FORM OF ITS OWN INDEPENDENCE IN FOREIGN POLICY. BUT FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE THE COMMUNISTS TOOK OVER IN 1949, CHINA HAD STABLE RELATIONS WITH THE SUPERPOWERS AND THEREFORE IT USED ITS NEW RELATIONS UNDER DENG XIAOPING IN A MORE LIBERAL, PROGRESSIVE GOVERNMENT TO OBTAIN ECONOMIC AND TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE TO MODERNIZE THE COUNTRY. CHINA BEGAN TO FOCUS ON ECONOMIC REFORM AND MODERNIZATION. WE ARE TALKING ONLY ABOUT 30 YEARS AGO. IN THIS PERIOD, IT WAS JAPAN WHICH WAS GROWING RAPIDLY AND OIL HUNGRY, SAW THE NEED FOR OIL FROM CHINA AND SO BARTERED JAPANESE AID, MACHINERY, EQUIPMENT FOR CHINESE OIL. YOU WILL SEE THIS IN AFRICA. THIS SET THEY MODEL FOR CHINA. THE JUNE 4th, 1989, TIANANMEN SQUARE CRACKDOWN DEALT A SERIOUS BLOW TO CHINA'S NATIONAL AND POLITICAL CREDIBILITY, AND THE BACKLASH BY THE WEST DID NOT FULLY SUBSIDE UNTIL THE MID-1990s. SINCE THE LATE 1990s, CHINA HAS BEEN VERY ACTIVE IN ITS FOREIGN DIPLOMACY, REACHING OUT ESPECIALLY TO ITS ASIAN NEIGHBORS, EUROPE, AFRICA, AND LATIN AMERICA. EXPERTS NOTE, HOWEVER, THAT THE LAST SEVERAL YEARS-- YOU CAN ALL RECALL THIS-- HAS SEEN CHINA EXHIBITING STRONGER NATIONALISTIC BEHAVIOR AS EVIDENCED BY DETERIORATING RELATIONS RECENTLY WITH JAPAN OVER THE DIAOYU OR SENKAKU ISLANDS AND TENSIONS WITH THE U.S. OVER CURRENCY, TRADE, AND DEFENSE. OF COURSE, IT IS ALSO SINCE THE LATE '90s THAT WE HAVE WITNESSED CHINA'S EXPLOSIVE ECONOMIC GROWTH. SO WE ARE TALKING ABOUT 20, 25 YEARS. CHINA TODAY IS A GLOBAL ACTOR, BUT EXPERTS SAY THAT CHINA ACTS WITHIN ITS NARROW INTERESTS. IT IS A VERY STRONG SUPPORTER OF THE U.N. AND A PERMANENT MEMBER OF THE SECURITY COUNCIL. IT CONTRIBUTES SIGNIFICANTLY TO U.N. PEACE KEEPING OPERATIONS WHERE IT IS THE NUMBER ONE CONTRIBUTOR AMONG THE PERMANENT MEMBERS OF THE SECURITY COUNCIL. IT HAS DIPLOMATIC RELATIONS WITH 175 COUNTRIES AND IS A MEMBER OF 150 INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS. IT IS A PARTY TO OVER 300 MULTILATERAL TREATIES. SO IN THE COURSE OF 50 OR SO YEARS, YOU CAN SEE A HUGE SHIFT, AND IT IS NOT THAT MUCH TIME-- FOUR OR FIVE DECADES. IN TERMS OF CHINA/AFRICA RELATIONS, CHINA GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS LIKE TO SAY THAT FRIENDLY RELATIONS BETWEEN AFRICA AND CHINA GO BACK AT LEAST 600 YEARS, IF NOT LONGER, AND, OF COURSE, THERE IS HISTORICAL EVIDENCE AND ARCHEOLOGICAL EVIDENCE FOR THIS. THE '50s-- SINCE 1970s, SAW CHINA'S INTEREST IN AFRICA AS FOLLOWS. IN THE '50s AND '60s, CHINA SAW AFRICA AS A CONTINENT WHERE ANTI-COLONIAL STRUGGLES WERE TAKING PLACE AND A WELCOME DESTINATION TO SPREAD MAOIST COMMUNISM. SECOND, AFTER CHINA BROKE RELATIONS WITH THE SOVIET UNION, CHINA SAW THE URGENT NEED TO COMPETE AGAINST THE SOVIET UNION, WHO WAS ALSO ACTIVE IN AFRICA, FOR SUPPORTERS. SO AFRICA BECAME CHINA'S FIRST TARGETED REGION FOR DIPLOMACY AND FOREIGN AID. CHINA ALSO SOUGHT AFRICAN SUPPORT TO OBTAIN THE VOTES NEEDED TO UNSEAT TAIWAN AND GAIN ITS SEAT IN THE UNITED NATIONS IN 1971, AND IT WORKED VERY HARD AT THAT. DIPLOMACY AND FOREIGN AID WERE USED TO UNSEAT TAIWAN, GET THE HELP OF AFRICAN NATIONS, AND GET CHINA SEATED IN THE U.N. AND THEN, BETWEEN THE PERIOD OF THE '70s TO THE MID-'90s, A LONG TIME, CHINA'S INTEREST IN AFRICA WANED, AND THE REASON FOR THIS IS PROBABLY BECAUSE CHINA WAS FOCUSED ON DEALING WITH RUSSIA AND THE UNITED STATES AND REALLY ON BEGINNING ITS OWN MODERNIZATION EFFORTS. SINCE THE MID-1990s, AND DIRECTLY CORRELATED WITH CHINA'S RAPID ECONOMIC GROWTH, CHINA HAS HAD VERY ACTIVE DIPLOMACY IN AFRICA, BOTH BILATERAL AND MULTILATERAL. FIFTY OUT OF 54 AFRICAN NATIONS RECOGNIZE CHINA. THERE ARE FOUR, STILL, AFRICAN NATIONS THAT RECOGNIZE ONLY TAIWAN. THEY DON'T GET ANY CHINESE AID. (audience laughing) CHINA IS DRIVEN BY ITS COMMERCIAL INTERESTS, FOR SURE. RAW MATERIAL IMPORTS, ENERGY IMPORTS, AND MANUFACTURE GOODS EXPORTS. CHINA IS ALSO ACTIVE IN PROVIDING DEVELOPMENT AID ASSISTANCE TO AFRICAN COUNTRIES, BUT IT TRAILS THE U.S. AND OTHER COUNTRIES OF THE WEST IN THIS EFFORT. PERHAPS THE MOST VISIBLY SIGNIFICANT EXPRESSION OF CHINA'S COMMITMENT TO AFRICA IS THE SO-CALLED "FORUM ON CHINA AFRICAN COOPERATION," F.O.C.A.C. LAUNCHED IN 2000-- ONLY 2000-- THE FORUM GATHERS THE GREAT MAJORITY OF AFRICAN LEADERS WITH GOVERNMENT LEADERS OF CHINA TO DISCUSS AND PLAN COOPERATION BETWEEN CHINA AND AFRICA FOR THE COMING THREE YEARS. AT THE 2012 FORUM, JUST IN AUGUST OF 2012, PRESIDENT HU JINTAO ANNOUNCED THAT CHINA WOULD LEND $20 BILLION TO AFRICAN GOVERNMENTS FOR INFRASTRUCTURE AND AGRICULTURE OVER THE NEXT THREE YEARS. THIS LOAN AMOUNT DOUBLED THE AMOUNT OFFERED IN THE PREVIOUS THREE YEARS IN 2009. PRESIDENT HU ALSO ANNOUNCED THAT CHINA WOULD TRAIN 30,000 AFRICANS AND OFFER 18,000 SCHOLARSHIPS TO AFRICAN STUDENTS TO STUDY IN CHINA AND SEND 1,500 MEDICAL PERSONNEL TO AFRICA. SO EVERY TIME THEY MEET EVERY THREE YEARS, CHINA SORT OF RATCHETS UP ITS ASSISTANCE. INTERESTING ENOUGH, BUT NOT SO INTERESTING, INCOMING PRESIDENT, NEW PRESIDENT OF CHINA, XI JINPING, WHO WAS JUST RATIFIED OR APPOINTED LAST WEEK, HIS FIRST TRIP AS CHINA'S PRESIDENT WILL BE TO AFRICA TO VISIT SOUTH AFRICA, TANZANIA, AND REPUBLIC OF CONGO, AND THEN HE WILL ALSO VISIT, OF COURSE, RUSSIA, CHINA'S OLD FRIEND. SO OVERALL, CHINA'S RELATIONS WITH AFRICAN NATIONS ARE STABLE AND POSITIVE, BUT THEY DON'T COME WITHOUT CRITICISM, WHICH WE WILL DISCUSS LATER. CHINA'S INTEREST IN AFRICA-- IT'S NOT ACCURATE TO SAY THAT CHINA'S INTEREST IN AFRICA ARE SOLELY COMMERCIAL, ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY TRADE AND RESOURCES ARE AT THE TOP OF CHINA'S LIST. CHINA AUTHENTICALLY BELIEVES THAT CHINA AND AFRICA SHARE A COMMON HISTORY OF OPPRESSION BY WESTERN COLONIAL AND IMPERIALIST POWERS. CHINA SAYS IT ALSO SHARES WITH AFRICA A LONG AND GLORIOUS CULTURAL HISTORY, AND CHINA SEES ITSELF LIKE AFRICAN COUNTRIES AS A DEVELOPING NATION. INDEED, CHINA IS STILL DEFINED AS A DEVELOPING COUNTRY AND STILL RECEIVES FOREIGN AID. CHINA DESIRES STRONG RELATIONS WITH AFRICAN NATIONS FOR POLITICAL SUPPORT IN INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS LIKE THE U.N. IN 1999, CHINA'S TWO-WAY TRADE WITH AFRICA TOTALED $6.3 BILLION. IN 2011, 12 YEARS LATER, CHINA'S TWO-WAY TRADE WITH AFRICA TOTALED $166 BILLION. CHINA HAS SURPASSED THE U.S. AS AFRICA'S LARGEST TRADING PARTNER. THIS HAPPENED IN 2009. CHINA'S EXPORTS TO AFRICA INCLUDE MACHINERY, TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT, APPLIANCES, ELECTRONICS, APPAREL, FOOTWEAR, AND CHINA RECOGNIZES THE IMPORTANCE OF AFRICA AS A HIGHLY ATTRACTIVE EXPORT DESTINATION FOR ITS PRODUCTS AND TAKES A LONG-TERM VIEW ON THIS. BUT NOT SURPRISINGLY, GIVEN CHINA'S APPETITE FOR ENERGY AND RAW MATERIALS TO FUND ITS OWN PRODUCTION AND NEEDS, 90 PERCENT OF AFRICA'S EXPORTS TO CHINA ARE COMPRISED OF OIL, MINERALS, AND OTHER RAW MATERIALS. AND BY THE WAY, THE CHINESE RECOGNIZE THAT AFRICAN IMPORTS ARE LOPSIDED, AND THE GOVERNMENT HAS ACTED TO PLACE SOME 4,700 AFRICAN ITEMS ON A DUTY-FREE LIST, PROVIDE DUTY-FREE STATUS. SO THEY ARE NOT INSENSITIVE TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE JUST TAKING ENERGY AND MINERALS OUT. SEVENTY-FIVE PERCENT OF AFRICAN EXPORTS ARE REPRESENTED BY FIVE OIL AND MINERAL EXPORTING COUNTRIES. IN TOTAL, CHINA HAS 45 TRADING PARTNERS IN AFRICA. FIFTEEN HAVE TRADE SURPLUSES. THIRTY HAVE TRADE DEFICITS WITH CHINA. I PUT THE ONE CHINA POLICY ON THE SLIDE BECAUSE CHINA IS STILL AND WILL ALWAYS BE HIGHLY SENSITIVE AND ADAMANT THAT IT, NOT TAIWAN, REPRESENTS CHINA. THEY ARE STILL FOUR COUNTRIES THAT RECOGNIZE CHINA. SO CHINA'S APPROACH IS TO AFRICA. WHEN LOOKING AT CHINA'S APPROACHES IN AFRICA, WE HAVE TO KEEP IN MIND THAT THE CHINESE GOVERNMENT PARTICIPATES DIRECTLY OR INDIRECTLY, TO A GREATER OR LESSER DEGREE, IN DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE, FOREIGN AID, DIRECT INVESTMENTS, AND TRADE IN CHINA. THIS IS A MODEL THAT WE AMERICANS ARE NOT ACCUSTOMED TO, BUT THIS IS THE KIND OF COMPETITION OR ENVIRONMENT WE FACE IN AFRICA, AND NOT JUST AFRICA. FOR AMERICAN COMPANIES OPERATING IN CHINA, WE FACE THAT, TOO. THE PLAYERS ARE TYPICALLY CHINA'S CENTRAL GOVERNMENT, LIKE THE MINISTRY OF COMMERCE, GOVERNMENT DEVELOPED BANKS AND FUNDS, STATE-OWNED BANKS, AND STATE-OWNED ENTERPRISES, OF WHICH THERE ARE 120 LARGE ONES, AND THEN THE SECOND TIER ARE BELOW CENTRAL PROVINCIAL LEVEL COUNTERPARTS COORDINATED BY CENTRAL AND PROVINCIAL AUTHORITIES. THE CHINESE APPROACH IN AFRICA IN GENERAL INCLUDES FOR GOVERNMENT TO GOVERNMENT DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE, CHINA'S FOREIGN POLICY PRINCIPLES ARE NON-INTERFERENCE, NO POLITICAL STRINGS ATTACHED, AND MUTUAL BENEFIT. CHINESE ALWAYS TALK WIN, WIN, WIN, AND OF COURSE SYMBOLIC IS A WIN-WIN. CHINA PROVIDES ABOUT $2-$3 BILLION ANNUALLY IN OUTRIGHT AID TO AFRICAN COUNTRIES. THE U.S. PROVIDES OVER $8 BILLION A YEAR. THE EXACT NUMBER OF CHINESE AID IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE BECAUSE IT IS ACTUALLY SECRET INFORMATION. DEVELOPMENT LOANS CONSIST OF LOW INTEREST LOANS USUALLY FOR LARGE INFRASTRUCTURE AND CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS, LIKE ROADS, DAMS, BUILDINGS, AND AIRPORTS. THEIR RATES ARE LOWER THAN COMMERCIAL BANK RATES, AND THEIR TERMS ARE LONGER. THEY DO NOT COME WITH CONDITIONS, STRINGS ATTACHED, AS WESTERN DEVELOPMENT LOANS DO. THE GENIUS OF CHINESE SOFT LOANS AND PACKAGED FINANCING IS THEY ARE TYPICALLY TIED TO SPECIFIC PROJECTS, SO THE RECIPIENT DOES NOT RECEIVE CASH. CONSTRUCTION FOR THESE PROJECTS ARE OFTEN PERFORMED BY CHINESE STATE-OWNED COMPANIES, AND OFTEN BY CHINESE WORKERS. THEN THE REPAYMENT OF SOFT LOANS CAN BE FOREIGN EXCHANGE EARNED BY THE RECIPIENTS OR TIED TO REVENUES EARNED BY EXPORTING, FOR EXAMPLE, OILS, MINERALS, AND OTHER COMMODITIES. FOR DIRECT INVESTMENT AND TRADE, CHINESE STATE-OWNED ENTERPRISES HAVE ACCESS TO GOVERNMENT BANK LOANS AT LOWER INTEREST RATES AND EXTENDED REPAYMENT TERMS. FINALLY, CHINESE DIRECTIVE-- DIRECT INVESTMENT EFFORTS STARTED ONLY IN THE LAST TEN YEARS OR SO. CHINESE DIRECT INVESTMENTS HAVE ACCELERATED AFTER 2009 RECESSION AND INCREASED 60 PERCENT BETWEEN 2009 AND 2011. ACCORDING TO CHINA/AFRICA EXPERT, DAVID SHINN, OVER 2,000 CHINESE COMPANIES, MANY THAT NOT STATE-OWNED COMPANIES, HAVE INVESTED IN AFRICA ALREADY, WITH A TOTAL INVESTMENT OF SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 15 AND $40 BILLION MADE SO FAR. I AM GOING TO STOP HERE. I HAVE MORE TO DO IN TERMS OF CHINA'S IMPACT ON AFRICA, BUT BASICALLY, I AM SAYING CHINA'S IMPACT ON AFRICA HAS OVERALL BEEN FAVORABLE. BECAUSE IF YOU ARE INVESTING AND PROVIDING ASSISTANCE IN INFRASTRUCTURE, YOU ARE DOING IT WHERE NOTHING EXISTED BEFORE, AND THAT HAS TO BE HELPFUL LONG-TERM. HOWEVER, THERE ARE MANY CHALLENGES AND CRITICISMS ABOUT CHINA, AND I AM NOT GOING TO BE AN APOLOGIST FOR CHINA, BUT I BELIEVE IN FACT BASE. THERE ARE SOME CRITICISMS FROM AFRICANS AND THE WEST THAT CHINA IS JUST A NEW COLONIAL POWER COMING IN TAKING OUT RAW MATERIALS, PRIMARY MATERIALS, AND LEAVING US WITH NOTHING. LABOR PRACTICES, POOR LABOR PRACTICES. CHINESE IMPORTS, ESPECIALLY TEXTILES AND SHOES, HAVE DECIMATED SOME OF THE LOCAL AFRICAN MARKETS. NATURAL ENVIRONMENT-- CHINA IS NOT PARTICULARLY WELL KNOWN FOR ENVIRONMENTAL-- GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL PRACTICES. I GOT TO CHINA AND YOU COULDN'T SEE ANYTHING IN BEIJING BECAUSE IT WAS SO SMOGGY A COUPLE WEEKS AGO. I LEFT CHINA, AND 6,000 PIGS WERE FLOATING DOWN THE HUANGPU RIVER-- DEAD PIGS, DISEASED PIGS, DOWN THE HUANGPU RIVER OUTSIDE SHANGHAI. HUMAN RIGHTS AND DEMOCRACY IS A TOPIC THAT CHINA ABHORS. IT DOESN'T WANT TO TALK ABOUT IT. AND OF COURSE, BECAUSE CHINA IS NOT A DEMOCRACY, IT DOESN'T RECOGNIZE HUMAN RIGHTS AND SO ON, AND SO, IT IS SOMETHING THAT IS FOREIGN AND IT DOESN'T WANT TO DEAL WITH. OF COURSE, CORRUPTION, WHICH YOU HAVE ALL READ ABOUT. NOT ALL THESE ARE JUST LIMITED TO CHINA, OF COURSE. WE CAN TALK IN DISCUSSION LATER ON WHAT OPPORTUNITIES THERE ARE. I THINK OVERALL, SOME OF THE CRITICISMS ARE NOT NECESSARILY LIMITED TO CHINA, BUT CHINA CANNOT BE EXCUSED, AS IT IS NOT DOING ANYTHING ABOUT IT. IN FACT, AS CHINA GETS MORE INTERNATIONAL, MORE GLOBAL, MORE INVESTED IN AFRICA, IT IS RESPONDING TO CRITICISM. IN 2012, PRESIDENT HU TALKED ABOUT SUSTAINABILITY PRACTICES AND CORPORATE SOCIAL RESPONSIBILITY FOR CHINESE COMPANIES GOING INTO AFRICA. SO SLOW PROGRESS IS MADE. I WILL LEAVE IT AT THAT, AND WE CAN TALK LATER IN THE DISCUSSION. THANK YOU. (applause) >> (with strong accent) THANK YOU, TIM, FOR THAT WONDERFUL PRESENTATION. YOU COVERED MOST OF WHAT I HAD PREPARED TO COVER... (audience laughing) SO YOU GIVE ME AN EXTRA YEAR OF FINDING OUT WHAT HE DIDN'T COVER. I AM GOING TO TRY AND DO THAT. I AM GOING TO START-- FIRST OF ALL, I AM VERY THANKFUL FOR THIS OPPORTUNITY TO TALK ABOUT A TOPIC THAT IS VERY INTERESTING, AND THERE IS NO WAY WE CAN COVER EVERYTHING THAT IS INTERESTING ABOUT THE TOPIC. I AM GOING TO GIVE YOU A BRIEF OVERVIEW OF THE RECENT TRENDS IN CHINESE INVESTMENTS IN AFRICA, IN PARTICULAR TRYING TO GIVE YOU EXAMPLES OF WHAT IS GOING ON ON THE GROUND... THAT IS THE FOCUS HERE, JUST TO SUPPLEMENT WHAT TIM HAS GIVEN US. THE MAP ON THE SCREEN SHOWS WHAT THINGS THE FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT OF 2005 IN AFRICA. THERE ARE A FEW THINGS WE COULD NOTE HERE. I APOLOGIZE BECAUSE THE COLOR SCHEMES ARE NOT CLEAR, BUT I CAN SAY THE DARK COLORS, LIKE FOR SUDAN, MEANS THAT OVER $300 MILLION WORTH OF FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT WAS IN SUDAN AS OF THAT TIME. THE NEXT SHADE IS OVER $100 MILLION, ET CETERA. WHAT WE CAN TAKE IN SUMMARY IS, AS OF 2005, THE LARGEST AMOUNT WAS JUST $300 MILLION IN FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, AND THAT WAS IN JUST SUDAN. FOUR OF THE COUNTRIES HAD OVER $100 MILLION-- JUST FOUR-- AND THAT WAS FOR ZAMBIA, SOUTH AFRICA, AND ALGERIA. IN TOTAL, THERE WAS NOT MUCH FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT IN AFRICA, NOTABLE CHAD REALLY HAD NOTHING, ANGOLA NOTHING AS OF 2005, AND THAT CHANGES VERY QUICKLY WHEN WE GO TO THE NEXT MAP. THIS SHOWS US-- THE DICTION HAS CHANGED FROM JUST FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT TO INCLUDE ALL FORMS OF INVESTMENT. AS HIGHLIGHTED BY TIM, IT IS NOW COMPLEX HOW CHINA INVESTS IN AFRICA OR HOW IS IT ENGAGED IN AFRICA. THIS MAP SHOWS THE COMMITMENT SINCE 2010, IN FINANCIAL TERMS, TO THESE COUNTRIES. AGAIN, THE COLOR SCHEMES INDICATE THE HIGHER THE AMOUNT OF COMMITMENT, THE GREATER-- THE DARKER THE COLOR SCHEME. FOR EXAMPLE, IN GHANA, NIGERIA, AND ZAMBIA, THAT MEANS THERE WERE $10 BILLION WORTH OF COMMITMENTS. SOME ALREADY ARE ACCOMPLISHED AND OTHERS IN THE PIPELINE. OVERALL, COMPARED TO 2005, THE TOTAL AMOUNT OF FINANCIAL COMMITMENT WAS $100 BILLION COMPARED TO JUST $1.6 BILLION IN 2005, SHOWING A HUGE INCREASE IN FINANCIAL COMMITMENT IN AFRICA. NOW, THAT REALLY FOLLOWS WHAT REALLY TOOK PLACE IN 2006 IN CHINA, THE FORUM-- THE AFRICAN LEADERS WERE TAKEN TO CHINA IN 2006. THEY WERE DINED, AND MANY DEALS WERE STRUCK. SO BILATERAL AGREEMENTS WERE REACHED, AND THAT IS WHAT WE SEE THERE. THE PATTERN OF INVESTMENT IS IN LINE WITH CHINA HAS DECLARED AS AN INTENTION TO CREATE OVER 50 ECONOMIC CORPORATIONS IN THE WORLD. AND IN AFRICA, THEY WANT TO CREATE SIX OF THEM, ONE OF THEM DEDICATED TO JUST MINING. THE WAY THIS ECONOMIC ZONE IS TO BE CREATED... CHINA WILL PROVIDE THE FINANCIAL SUPPORT. CHINESE COMPANIES WILL BUILD THE ZONES AND PROVIDE INFRASTRUCTURE WITHIN THE ZONE. THE HOST COUNTRY THEN WOULD PROVIDE THE INFRASTRUCTURE OUTSIDE THE ZONE. AND IT IS HOPED TO 70 TO 80 PERCENT OF THE COMPANIES OR BUSINESS FIRMS WITHIN THE ZONE WILL BE CHINESE-OWNED OR IN SOME FORM OF COLLABORATION WITH A JOINT VENTURE WITH AFRICAN NATIONS. CURRENTLY, THERE ARE ESTIMATED ABOUT 800 CHINESE FIRMS WORKING ACROSS AFRICA. ONLY HALF OF THEM HAVE JOINED VENTURES. MOST OF THEM ARE JUST ESSENTIALLY CHINESE-OWNED. BESIDES FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, AS TIM MENTIONED, THIS TRADE, WHAT IS NOTABLE ABOUT THE TRADE IN WHICH COUNTRIES IS THE TRADE MOST CONCENTRATED AND IN WHICH COMMODITIES. FOR INSTANCE, IF WE LOOK AT THE DATA FOR 2007, IT SHOWS 70 PERCENT OF THE CHINESE EXPORTS WERE SIMPLY MACHINERY AND EQUIPMENT AND A LITTLE OF MANUFACTURED GOODS. OF THESE GOODS, 50 PERCENT OF THEM WERE GOING TO JUST FOUR COUNTRIES-- SOUTH AFRICA, EGYPT, NIGERIA, AND ALGERIA. THEN, WHEN WE LOOK AT WHAT CHINA WAS RECEIVING FROM AFRICA, IT WAS MAINLY OIL AND MINERALS, LIKE 80 PERCENT OF WHAT CHINA WAS IMPORTING WAS OIL AND MINERALS, AND 73 PERCENT OF THIS CAME FROM FOUR COUNTRIES, ANGOLA, SOUTH AFRICA, SUDAN, AND DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO. THE MAIN ENGAGEMENT IN CHINA IS CONSTRUCTION. IT IS INVOLVED IN EVERY OTHER THING, BUT WHAT IS REALLY BIG IS CONSTRUCTION. AGAIN, EVEN THIS CONSTRUCTION IS CONCENTRATED IN A FEW COUNTRIES. SEVENTY-TWO PERCENT OF THE CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS IN AFRICA ARE IN NIGERIA, ANGOLA, ETHIOPIA, AND SUDAN, WHILE WE FIND IT EVERYWHERE ELSE. SO SHOWING US A PATTERN THAT THERE IS A REASON WHY CHINA IS DOING WHAT IT IS DOING IN THE WAY IT IS DOING IT. OKAY. SO GIVING YOU THAT OVERVIEW OF TYPES OF INVESTMENT AND TRADE, NOW I WANT TO TAKE YOU TO SOME EXAMPLES, SOME VISUALS OF WHAT IS GOING ON. I WANT TO BEGIN BY SHOWING YOU WHAT I WOULD CALL "CHINA'S GIFT TO AFRICA." THAT IS A GIFT. THIS IS THE AFRICAN UNION HEADQUARTERS IN ADDIS ABABA, ETHIOPIA. IT WAS COMPLETED IN 2012. IT WAS BUILT AND FURNISHED ENTIRELY BY THE GOVERNMENT OF CHINA AT THE COST OF $200 MILLION AS A GIFT. FRIENDS LOOK OUT FOR EACH OTHER. SO THESE ARE THE BEAUTIFUL BUILDINGS THAT THE AFRICAN UNION GOT. BUT THAT IS NOT ALL. CHINA GOES AHEAD AND GIVES WHAT THEY CALL "HIGH PRESTIGE GIFTS," VERY VISIBLE BUILDINGS, LIKE OFFICE BUILDINGS, PRESIDENTIAL PALACES, ET CETERA. A FEW EXAMPLES INCLUDE AN EXTENSION OF A BUILDING THAT IS HOUSING THE PARLIAMENT IN UGANDA, NEW OFFICES FOR MINISTRY OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS IN ANGOLA, MOZAMBIQUE, AND RWANDA, PRESIDENTIAL PALACES IN HARARE, ZIMBABWE, AND KINSHASA, D.R.C.-- DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO-- AND STADIUMS IN SIERRA LEONE AND CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC, AND THESE ARE GIFTS, AND THEY ARE VERY VISIBLE. THEREFORE, THE POPULATION, THE AFRICANS CAN RELATE TO WHAT THEY ARE SEEING. THE NEXT ONE THAT I WANT TO SHOW YOU IS UNIQUE BECAUSE WE CALL IT-- IN AFRICA, IT IS KNOWN AS "THE ANGOLA MODEL." IT IS UNIQUE. THERE IS SO MUCH GOING ON AND WE CAN SEE A LOT. IT IS UNIQUE IN THE SENSE THAT MOST OF THE CONSTRUCTION IN ANGOLA IS PAID FOR IN FORM OF NATURAL RESOURCES. SO IT WILL BE PAID OUT OF OIL REVENUE, ET CETERA, AND VERY FRIENDLY LOANS. WHAT I AM SHOWING YOU ON THE BOTTOM IS A TOWN THAT WAS BUILT BY THE CHINA INTERNATIONAL TRUST AND INVESTMENT CORPORATION, A STATE-OWNED CORPORATION. IT IS REALLY LIKE 750 EIGHT-STORY APARTMENT BUILDINGS, SUPPOSED TO BE A RESIDENTIAL BUILDING COMPLEX TO HAVE 500,000 PEOPLE IN IT. I HAVE A FEW MORE PICTURES TO SHOW SO YOU CAN APPRECIATE HOW BEAUTIFUL THIS COMPLEX IS, JUST VERY NEAR THE CAPITAL OF RWANDA. EXCELLENT. NOW, UNFORTUNATELY, NOBODY LIVES THERE. THESE COMPLEXES ARE ON SALE RIGHT NOW. IF YOU HAVE $125,000, FEEL FREE TO GO BUY AN APARTMENT THERE. BUT THERE ARE NO TAKERS RIGHT NOW. THAT IS WHY IT IS CALLED A "GHOST TOWN." LET'S GO TO ANOTHER MODEL THAT IT IS DOING, WHICH IS NOT JUST GIVEAWAYS. IT IS ACTUALLY BUILDING HIGHWAYS. I AM SHOWING THE THIKA SUPERHIGHWAY. IT BRINGS SOME NOSTALGIC FEELINGS HERE BECAUSE I AM FROM KENYA. THAT IS THE FIRST SUPERHIGHWAY IN KENYA. WHAT IS UNIQUE ABOUT THIS IS IT'S ONLY 50 KILOMETERS LONG. THAT IS ABOUT 30 MILES. THAT IS A LOT. NOW, THE KENYAN GOVERNMENT GOT A LOAN FROM THE AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK, BUT THE CHINESE GOVERNMENT AGREED TO HELP WITH THE FINANCING AS WELL, SO THEY PUT IN SOME MONEY, AS LONG AS, OF COURSE, THREE CHINESE COMPANIES GOT THE DEAL TO CONSTRUCT IT. WHAT IS STRIKING IS THE SPEED AT WHICH THE LOAN WAS DISBURSED AND WITH WHICH THE HIGHWAY WAS COMPLETED. MOST KENYANS ARE LIKE, "CHINA IS THE WAY TO GO," BECAUSE OF JUST THIS LANDMARK 50 KILOMETER HIGHWAY. THERE ARE OTHER HIGHWAYS BUILT IN ETHIOPIA, 600 KILOMETERS WORTH OF ROAD, WHICH IS ABOUT 370 MILES, BUT THAT IS HUGE IN THE CITY OF ADDIS ABABA. NOW, IN TERMS OF REAL WHAT IT DOES TO THE PEOPLE, IT CUTS DOWN COMMUTER TIME FROM TWO HOURS... TO JUST 20 MINUTES. SO WHAT TOOK YOU TWO HOURS TO GET TO WORK, NOW YOU GET IN 20 MINUTES. BY THE TIME YOU ARE THERE, YOU ARE LIKE, "THANK GOD FOR THE CHINESE." THAT IS THE FEELING ON THE STREET. OKAY. HOW DO-- WHAT DO I HAVE HERE? OKAY. THAT IS A NICE ONE. (audience laughing) I LIKE THIS ONE. FIFTY KILOMETERS, AS I SAID-- THAT IS REALLY HUGE. THAT IS HUGE. NOW, LET'S THINK ABOUT HOW AFRICANS VIEW CHINESE INVOLVEMENT, NOW THAT WE HAVE AN IDEA OF THE EXAMPLES. THERE ARE THREE MAIN VIEWS OF CHINA'S ROLE IN AFRICA. FIRST, AS A DEVELOPMENT PARTNER WITH LONG-TERM STRATEGIC COMMITMENT TO THE CONTINENT, DRIVEN BY ECONOMIC MOTIVES. TO THIS GOAL, THE AFRICANS SAY, "THAT IS WHAT CHINA IS ALL ABOUT, "IS A DEVELOPMENT PARTNER, IS A NEW PARTNER. "WE HAVE TRIED THE WESTERN MODEL," WHICH I WILL SPEAK TO IN A SECOND, "FOR THE LAST 50 YEARS WITH VERY LITTLE TO SHOW "AND BILLIONS OF DOLLARS WASTED. "CHINA HAS JUST COME IN. "THERE IS TIKHA SUPERHIGHWAY TO SHOW FOR IT. "THERE IS AN OFFICE BUILDING TO SHOW FOR IT," ET CETERA. THAT IS THEIR VIEW. THAT IS WHAT IS REALLY IMPRESSED. THE SECOND ONE IS CHINA AS AN ECONOMIC COMPETITOR ENGAGED IN SHORT-TERM RESOURCE GRAB, WITH VERY LITTLE CONCERN FOR THE LOCAL NEEDS. TO THIS ONE, THE MAIN-- THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT WE CAUTIOUSLY ARE WATCHING WHAT IS HAPPENING IN ANGOLA. THE ANGOLA MODEL IS NOT GOING TO WORK EVERYWHERE, SO THEY ARE CONCERNED BUT NOT TAKING IT AS SERIOUS-- THEY ARE SAYING THEY ARE WATCHING THAT AND NOT CASTING THE DIE ONE WAY OR ANOTHER. THEN, CHINA AS A COLONIZER WITH A LONG-TERM SCHEME OF EXERTING SOME FORM OF POLITICAL CONTROL. NOW, HERE I WOULD USE A RESPONSE THAT THE PRESIDENT OF RWANDA, PRESIDENT PAUL KAGAME, GAVE TO FAREED ZAKARIA OF C.N.N. IN 2009 WHEN THIS QUESTION WAS PUT TO HIM. THEY VEHEMENTLY REJECT THIS NOTION, ALL LEADERS OF EASTERN AFRICA. WHAT PRESIDENT KAGAME SAID IS THAT IF THAT WERE TO HAPPEN, IF IT WAS A SITUATION WHERE CHINA WAS CONTROLLING THE FOREIGN POLICY OF RWANDA, THEN IT IS NOT CHINA'S PROBLEM AND NOT TO BE THE FAILURE OF RWANDA, TO BE THE FAILURE OF AFRICA TO LET THAT HAPPEN. THEN HE WENT ON TO CITE THE EXAMPLE OF HOW THEY WENT WITH AMERICA AND OTHER WESTERN COUNTRIES AND POSED A RHETORICAL QUESTION, "ARE THEY CONTROLLING "OUR FOREIGN POLICY?" SO HE WENT AHEAD TO REAFFIRM THAT IF CHINA BRINGS ANOTHER GIFT BY THE WAY OF-- AT THAT TIME, THEY ALREADY HAD A GIFT OF AN OFFICE FOR THE FOREIGN AFFAIRS MINISTRIES. HE SAID IF ANOTHER GIFT CAME, HE WOULD JUST TAKE IT BECAUSE IT HAD NOTHING TO DO WITH NEO-COLONIZATION. OKAY. TIM MENTIONED MOST OF THE OTHER THINGS, SO I WILL LEAVE THE CHALLENGES. WE CAN TALK ABOUT THEM LATER. LET ME THROW IN ONE OR TWO ABOUT THE CHINESE PATTERN OF INVOLVEMENT VERSUS WESTERN PATTERN OF INVOLVEMENT. THE WESTERN MODEL OF INVOLVEMENT IS WELL KNOWN TO THIS AUDIENCE. IT IS ONE WHERE WE ARE CONCERNED WITH DEMOCRACY AND ALSO, OF COURSE, CONCERNED ABOUT DEVELOPMENT, BUT WE CARE ABOUT HUMAN RIGHTS AND ENVIRONMENT AND WE WANT TO BE GOOD CUSTODIANS OF THE ENVIRONMENT. WHAT IS DIFFERENT HERE IS THAT CHINA HAS ONLY ONE CONDITION. THE CHINA ONE POLICY-- ONCE YOU ABIDE BY THAT, THEY WILL DEAL WITH YOU. I WOULD LIKE TO QUOTE WHAT THE CHINESE EMBASSY OFFICIAL IN ADDIS ABABA TOLD A B.B.C. JOURNALIST TO THE INTENTIONS IN AFRICA. THE OFFICIAL PUT IT THIS WAY, AND I QUOTE, "CHINA NEVER IMPOSES ITS OWN WILL ON AFRICAN COUNTRIES "NOR INTERFERES IN THE DOMESTIC AFFAIRS OF AFRICAN COUNTRIES." THAT IS IT. THEY EMPHASIZE MUTUAL BENEFIT, AND AT EVERY OPPORTUNITY, THEY HAVE EMPHASIZED MUTUAL BENEFIT, NON-INTERFERENCE WITH THE HOST COUNTRY, SO MUCH THEY HAVE SUCCEEDED SOMEHOW IN CREATING A SENSE THAT THE WEST'S INTENTIONS WERE TO USE AFRICA AND DID NOT MUCH CARE ABOUT THE ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL WELL-BEING OF THE AFRICANS. AND THAT IS A PERCEPTION CHINA FIGHTS VERY HARD NOT TO HAVE. LET ME GIVE YOU A LAUNDRY LIST OF SOME OF THE UNIQUE FEATURES OF THE CHINA MODEL. AND SOME MAY SOUND A LITTLE REPETITIVE FROM WHAT TIM SAID. CHINA EXPLICITLY DECLARES THAT ALL ITS PROGRAMS ARE AIMING AT MUTUAL BENEFIT AND ARE A WIN-WIN FOR BOTH PARTIES. AND THIS DOVETAILS VERY WELL TO THE AFRICAN-- CONTEMPORARY AFRICAN THINKING OF "WE WANT TRADE AND NOT AID." THAT IS THE PUSH NOW. SO THAT FITS IN WELL AND IS WELL RECEIVED BY THE AFRICANS. ANOTHER THING THAT IS DIFFERENT IS THE CHINESE WORKERS, INCLUDING THEIR TECHNICAL EXPERTS, THEY RELATIVELY COST MUCH LOWER THAN THEIR WESTERN COUNTERPARTS. THAT IS ALSO VIEWED AS VERY POSITIVE IN AFRICA. ONE ISSUE IS CLEAR, AND TIM SAID THIS, CHINA'S ENGAGEMENTS ARE OFTEN WEAK ON ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES AND SOCIAL AND HUMAN RIGHTS ISSUES. NOT EVEN WEAK-- LET'S SAY THEY JUST IGNORE THEM AND DON'T ENGAGE THOSE ISSUES. RELATED TO THE POINTS I'VE MADE EARLIER, THE POINT IS LIKE, "WHY IS CHINA SO SUCCESSFUL?" THEY ARE WINNING BIDS MAINLY BASED ON LOW-COST LABOR, LOW-COST MANAGERIAL EXPERTISE, AND ACCESS TO CHEAP-- OR IF YOU LIKE SUBSIDIZED LOANS FROM THE CHINESE GOVERNMENT OR CHINESE BANKS, AND THAT IS IMPORTANT. BESIDES THAT THEY ALSO ACCEPT A LOWER PROFIT MARGIN-- MANY EXPECT 10 PERCENT CAN ACCEPT AS LOW AS 3 TO 5 PERCENT-- WHILE WESTERN BUSINESSES ARE LOOKING AT 15 TO 25 PERCENT PROFIT MARGIN. THEN, OF COURSE, THERE IS THE ANGOLA MODEL WHERE WE ARE TRADING RESOURCES WITH INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECT. SO LET ME LEAVE YOU WITH TWO IMAGES AS A FINAL EXAMPLE OF WHAT IS GOING ON IN AFRICA AND WHAT WE EXPECT TO SEE. THIS PICTURE, COURTESY OF DR. MICHAEL DEVIVO FROM GRAND RAPIDS COMMUNITY COLLEGE WHEN HE WAS IN LESOTHO, A SMALL COUNTRY WITHIN THE SOUTH AFRICAN REGION, TOOK THIS PICTURE OF A CHINESE ENTERPRISE, A CHINESE RETAIL SHOP. THEY ARE MUSHROOMING EVERYWHERE IN AFRICA. THIS IS AN EXAMPLE OF WHAT IS HAPPENING, AND THERE IS A FLOW OF CHINESE IMMIGRANTS INTO AFRICA AND SETTLING IN AFRICA. THAT IS AN EXAMPLE OF A CHINESE-OWNED FACTORY IN LESOTHO. THIS IS WHAT IS GOING ON EVERYWHERE IN AFRICA. THAT IS HOW CHINESE COMPANIES ARE ENGAGING IN AFRICA. THANK YOU. (applause) >> GERALD AND TIM, THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR YOUR PERSPECTIVES ON THIS. I THINK IT REALLY GIVES US AN IDEA OF THE MACRO AND THE MICRO AND BRINGING IT FROM THE FACTS AND FIGURES DOWN TO HOW IT LOOKS ON THE GROUND. I WOULD LIKE TO BEGIN WITH A QUESTION THAT REALLY GETS ABOUT THE POINT OF "WHY DOES THIS MATTER?" SHOULD WE BE CONCERNED ABOUT WHAT IS HAPPENING FROM A U.S. PERSPECTIVE? WHAT KINDS OF RESPONSE WILL YOU GIVE TO US ON THAT KIND OF A QUESTION? WHAT ARE THE FOREIGN POLICY CONCERNS OR BUSINESS CONCERNS BASED ON WHAT YOU HAVE SHOWN US TO BE HAPPENING THERE? >> YOU KNOW, I LISTENED TO THE GREAT DECISION RECORDING, THE VIDEO, OF "FEEDING THE DRAGON-- CHINA AND AFRICA" LAST NIGHT, AND I HEARD THE COMMENTATORS SAY, "IN ORDER FOR THE UNITED STATES TO PARTICIPATE IN AFRICA, "WILL IT HAVE TO LOWER ITS MORAL STANDARDS?" WHEN I LOOK AT WHAT IS HAPPENING IN AFRICA AND CHINA'S BEHAVIOR, I DON'T THINK IT HAS ANYTHING TO DO WITH LOWERING YOUR ETHICAL OR MORAL STANDARDS. I THINK IT IS YOU HAVE TO LEARN HOW TO COMPETE MORE EFFECTIVELY. JUST THE WAY AMERICAN COMPANIES HAVE TO LEARN HOW TO COMPETE SUCCESSFULLY IN CHINA, YOU CAN DO SO BY BEING ETHICAL AND GOOD CORPORATE CITIZENS. SO MY POINT IS THAT, ON A FOREIGN POLICY LEVEL, I THINK THAT THE AFRICAN LEADERS IN LARGE PART APPRECIATE THE LONG-TERM, CONSISTENT RELATIONSHIP THAT THEY HAVE HAD WITH CHINA. THEY CAN COUNT ON CHINA FOR AID AND SO ON. I THINK THE UNITED STATES, AND CORRECT ME IF I AM WRONG, YOU TEND TO BE IN AND OUT AND PERHAPS DEPENDING ON ADMINISTRATION, AND THE CONSISTENCY IS NOT QUITE THERE. SECRETARY CLINTON WAS THERE LAST YEAR IN AFRICA, AND NOW THE UNITED STATES IS MAKING A BIG PUSH TO-- BECAUSE OF ITS STRATEGIC INTEREST IN AFRICA. SO I THINK ON A FOREIGN POLICY SIDE, THERE NEEDS TO BE CONSISTENCY. ON THE BUSINESS SIDE, I THINK ONE OF THE KEY SUCCESS FACTORS FOR CHINA, AS YOU HAVE HEARD FROM US, IS THAT THE CHINESE GOVERNMENT AND BUSINESS-- THERE IS A HAND-TO-HAND RELATIONSHIP, AND THERE ARE MANY INSTRUMENTS THAT THE CHINESE GOVERNMENT CAN BRING TO BEAR TO HELP BUSINESSES SUCCEED IN CHINA, LOW INTEREST LOANS, DIFFERENT TYPES OF LOANS, DIFFERENT ACCESS POINTS, ET CETERA. WE DON'T HAVE AS MANY OF THESE INSTRUMENTS TO CHOOSE FROM, BUT IN TERMS OF EXPORT AND IMPORT BANK LOANS, WE NEED TO HAVE MORE FINANCIAL SUPPORT IN TERMS OF DOUBLE TAX AND DUAL INVESTMENT TREATIES. MAYBE WE NEED MORE. WE NEED TO LOWER OUR RISKS AS BUSINESSES SO THAT IT MAKES IT WORTHWHILE TO TAKE A LOOK AT AFRICA. >> SOME COMMENTS? >> I CAN ONLY ADD THAT YES, THERE IS SOME ELEMENTAL FOREIGN POLICY CONCERNS THAT WE SHOULD BE CONCERNED WITH. WHAT WE DIDN'T BRING OUT IN THE PRESENTATION IS ALSO THAT CHINA IS INVOLVED, AT LEAST THERE ARE REPORTS, IN SELLING SMALL ARMS, ESPECIALLY TO SUDAN AND ETHIOPIA, ET CETERA, AND THERE ARE CLAIMS SOME OF THESE ARMS HAVE BEEN USED IN CIVIL WARS, ET CETERA. AND THERE SEEMS TO BE A TREND THAT CHINA WANTS TO INCREASE ITS SUPPLY OF ARMS. SO THERE, EVERYBODY IN THE WORLD NEEDS TO BE CONCERNED IF THAT IS THE DIRECTION CHINA IS TAKING. IN TERMS OF BUSINESS, UNLESS THE EXPORT/IMPORT BANK IN THE U.S. CAN FIND A WAY OF COMPETING WITH THE EXPORT/IMPORT BANK OF CHINA IN TERMS OF OFFERING CHEAPER LOANS, IT IS GOING TO BE HARD TO COMPETE, BECAUSE THE WAY CHINESE BUSINESSES GET THE CHANCE TO PERFORM WHAT THEY DO IS ON A COMPETITIVE BASIS-- THEIR LOW COSTS BEAT US. >> THANK YOU. ANOTHER QUESTION THAT HAS SURFACED-- AND, TIM, THANK YOU FOR BRINGING UP THIS IDEA FOR US TO REMEMBER THAT AFRICA IS NOT A MONOLITHIC ENTITY, BUT THE QUESTION I HAVE RELATES TO DIFFERENCES IN CHINA'S INTERVENTION FROM STATE TO STATE. DO WE HAVE A "ONE SIZE FITS ALL" IN TERMS OF A CHINA MODEL OF INTERACTION IN AFRICA? OR CAN WE SEE DISTINCT DIFFERENCES FROM PLACE TO PLACE BASED ON THE TYPE OF GOVERNMENT THAT WE MIGHT BE FINDING IN A RESPECTIVE AFRICAN COUNTRY? >> WE WILL SAY "YES" AND "NO" TO YOUR QUESTION, IN THE SENSE THAT GENERALLY THERE IS ONE APPROACH. THE ONLY CONDITION IS YOU ACKNOWLEDGE THAT THERE IS ONLY ONE CHINA, THAT IS IT, THEN THEY ARE GOING TO ENGAGE WITH YOU. THE LEVEL AT WHICH THEY ENGAGE WITH YOU IS NOT REALLY DETERMINED BY WHICH GOVERNMENT IS IN POWER. IT SEEMS TO BE WHAT DOES THE NATION HAVE TO OFFER THAT IS OF INTEREST TO CHINA. AS I SHOWED, THERE SEEMS TO BE A PATTERN-- WHILE CHINA IS INVOLVED IN EVERY COUNTRY, THERE SEEMS TO BE A PATTERN OF MORE INVESTMENT FUNDS GOING TO RESOURCE RICH COUNTRIES, THOSE THAT HAVE MINERALS AND OIL. SO IT IS NOT DEPENDENT ON "WHO IS IN POWER," RATHER IT IS "WHAT IS IN IT TO BE GAINED?" >> HOW ABOUT SOME QUESTIONS FROM THE AUDIENCE? DO I HAVE...? PLEASE, WILL YOU STEP DOWN TO A MIC, AND WE WILL BE ANXIOUS TO HEAR YOUR QUESTION. >> MY QUESTION IS ABOUT EMPLOYMENT IN AFRICA. IT LOOKS LIKE CHINA HAS PROVIDED EMPLOYMENT FOR CHINESE, BRINGING CHINESE LABOR INTO AFRICA. HOW MANY AFRICANS ARE BEING EMPLOYED BY THE CHINESE INVESTMENT? >> CAN I TAKE THAT ONE, TIM? THAT WAS ONE OF MY BULLET POINTS, BUT I SKIPPED IT, BECAUSE AMY SHOWED ME THAT I HAD ONLY A FEW MINUTES LEFT. (audience laughing) NOW, THAT IS ONE OF THE MAIN CONCERNS THAT WHEN CHINESE COMPANIES WORK IN AFRICA, THEY ACTUALLY BRING THEIR OWN LABOR TO DO MANUAL WORK, SO THERE HAVE BEEN PROTESTS IN SOME COUNTRIES. IN FACT, A FEW YEARS AGO, A PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE IN ZAMBIA RAN ON THE PLATFORM OF ANTI-CHINA POLICY. SO THAT IS A CONCERN AND SERIOUS PUSHBACK AT THE MOMENT, AND WE DON'T KNOW HOW IT IS GOING TO BE RESOLVED. BUT YOU ARE ABSOLUTELY RIGHT-- THEY HAVE A POLICY OF REALLY NOT EMPLOYING THE AFRICANS, EVEN ON JOBS THAT THE AFRICANS COULD DO CHEAPLY. >> I THINK CHINA IS GOING TO HAVE TO IMPROVE IN THIS AREA. I THINK AS TIME GOES ON, FOR THOSE OF US WHO WORK IN CHINA, YOU SEE INCREASINGLY HIGH LABOR RATES. ONE OF THE REASONS WHY CONSTRUCTION COMPANIES ARE ABLE TO BRING IN A LOT OF CHINESE IS THAT-- I THINK IT IS CHANGING NOW-- THE WAGES YOU CAN EARN AS AN OVERSEAS CHINESE EMPLOYEE FOR CONSTRUCTION COULD BE MULTIPLE TIMES WHAT YOU COULD EARN IN CHINA. THE LABOR WAGES FOR THIS KIND OF WORK IS INCREASING VERY FAST IN CHINA BECAUSE THE CHINESE GOVERNMENT IS TRYING TO GET INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT TO GO INLAND. SO WHAT I AM THINKING IS THAT, AT SOME MOMENT IN TIME, SOMETHING IS GOING TO BE TRIGGERED, AND LOCAL EMPLOYEES WILL START TO BECOME MORE AND MORE ATTRACTIVE. NOW, WE MAY BE TALKING FIVE, EIGHT YEARS OUT. THE OTHER COMPLIANT I HAVE HEARD FROM CHINESE EMPLOYERS, AND ON MY RECENT TRIP TO CHINA A FEW DAYS AGO, I ASKED AROUND, IS THAT THERE IS A PERCEPTION-- AND I CAN ONLY SAY "PERCEPTION" BECAUSE I HAVEN'T SEEN IT FIRSTHAND-- THAT CHINESE WORKERS ARE MUCH MORE EFFICIENT. THEY WORK HARDER THAN LOCALS. THAT COULD BE A PREJUDICE. I DON'T KNOW. (audience chuckling) BUT YOU ALSO READ ABOUT THIS. NEVERTHELESS, OVER TIME, THE BUSINESS EVOLUTION WILL BE SUCH THAT CHINESE COMPANIES WILL HAVE TO USE MORE AND MORE LOCAL WORKERS. I THINK THE GOVERNMENT WILL ENCOURAGE THIS, TOO, BECAUSE OF THE CRITICISMS LEVIED AGAINST THE CHINESE COMPANIES FOR DOING THIS. >> THANK YOU. >> THANK YOU. PLEASE. >> TIM, I WOULD LIKE YOU TO, PLEASE, ELABORATE ON A COMMENT YOU MADE EARLY ON IN YOUR COMMENTS, IN WHICH YOU SAID THAT IT IS NOT JUST CHINA THAT IS DISRESPECTING THE LABOR RIGHTS AND ALSO THE ENVIRONMENT. DO YOU THINK PERHAPS WE'RE SETTING UP SOMEWHAT OF A FALSE DICHOTOMY BY SAYING, "WELL, AMERICAN CORPORATIONS RESPECT HUMAN RIGHTS, "AMERICAN CORPORATIONS RESPECT THE ENVIRONMENT, "AND CHINESE CORPORATIONS DON'T"? BECAUSE ALL YOU HAVE TO DO IS LOOK AT THE PATTERN OF, SAY, AMERICAN OIL COMPANIES IN NIGERIA, AND IT SEEMS TO ME THEY ARE HARDLY RESPECTFUL OF THE ENVIRONMENT OR RIGHTS OF THE PEOPLE. >> YEAH, I DON'T HAVE-- IT IS MY IMPRESSION. I DON'T HAVE FACTS FOR THIS. I AM JUST THINKING THAT ONE LOOKS IN PAST HISTORY AND YOU SEE WESTERN COMPANIES IN EXTRACTIVE INDUSTRIES IN AFRICA WHO DIDN'T PARTICULARLY LIVE UP TO THE BEST LABOR STANDARDS OR SAFETY STANDARDS. I AM NOT EXCUSING THE CHINESE. INDEED, CHINA IS AN INTERESTING SITUATION WHERE I BELIEVE THAT POOR LABOR PRACTICES, POOR ENVIRONMENTAL PRACTICES ARE FOLLOWING SOME CHINESE COMPANIES INTO AFRICA. BECAUSE IF YOU LOOK AT CHINA ITSELF, ONE OF THE MOST POLLUTED COUNTRIES IN THE WORLD AND COUNTRIES WHERE YOU LOSE HUNDREDS OF MINERS A YEAR DUE TO POOR SAFETY-- I DON'T EXPECT THE SAME COMPANIES TO BRING BEST PRACTICES TO OFFSHORE. SO IT HAS TO CHANGE. I THINK THE PRESSURES FROM AFRICAN NATIONS AND EVOLVEMENT OF STRONGER GOVERNMENT THERE, WILL-- AND PLUS, CHINA'S OWN WILLINGNESS TO START CHANGING AND BE A GLOBAL PLAYER AND BE A BETTER PLAYER, AS PRESIDENT HU SAID, MORE SUSTAINABLE PRACTICES. THINGS WILL CHANGE OVER TIME. I THINK I HAVE TO BE CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC THAT THAT IS GOING TO BE THE CASE. >> AND WILL BE A MODEL FOR AMERICAN COMPANIES, THEN? >> I DON'T KNOW. I DON'T KNOW HOW AMERICAN COMPANIES BEHAVE IN AFRICA. >> GERALD, WOULD YOU LIKE TO RESPOND? >> NO, THAT'S IT. >> THANK YOU. YES, PLEASE. >> HOW MIGHT THE U.S. GOVERNMENT, THE U.S. ECONOMY, AND THE INTERNATIONAL MONEY FUND REBUILD AND/OR BUILD A NEW SUPERHIGHWAY TO AFRICA? (all chuckling) >> A NEW SUPERHIGHWAY? THAT IS YOUR HIGHWAY. (audience laughing) >> THERE IS NO WAY THEY CAN DO IT. THE LENDING MODEL OF THE I.M.F. AND THE WORLD BANK AND INDEED, MOST OF THE WESTERN DONORS IS THEY HAVE CONDITIONS THAT MUST BE MET, THAT IF YOU ALREADY HAVE DEBT, YOU MUST RE-STRUCTURE, YOU MUST LOOK CREDIT WORTHY BEFORE YOU GET ANY AID TO CONSTRUCT A ROAD. WHAT IS DIFFERENT WITH WHAT CHINA DID IS THEY DON'T ACTUALLY DISPERSE ANY MONEY. THEY GUARANTEE THE MONEY. THEY DON'T EVEN PAY TO THE AFRICAN GOVERNMENT. IT WILL BE PAID DIRECTLY TO THE CHINESE COMPANY ONCE THEY HAVE COMPLETED THE JOB. SO NO MONEY GETS IN THE WAY OF THE PROJECT. IT IS AWAY FROM THE AFRICAN LEADERS WHO MANY OF THEM, IN THE PAST, HAVE BEEN CORRUPT, SO THE MODEL FOR I.M.F. AND THE WESTERN DONORS, IN TERMS OF CONSTRUCTING ROADS, ITS TIME HAS PASSED. >> TIM, DO YOU HAVE SOME COMMENTS ON WHAT YOU ARE HEARING? >> NO. >> OKAY. (audience chuckling) I WAS JUST THINKING ABOUT THE-- LIVE IN ADA, AND I WAS JUST THINKING ABOUT HOW MANY YEARS IT TOOK TO BUILD THAT BRIDGE OVER THE GRAND RIVER... (audience laughing) AND I GO BACK AND FORTH TO CHINA AND SEE BRIDGES BEING BUILT EVERY TIME I GO BACK EVERY SIX WEEKS-- NEW BRIDGES GOING UP. (audience laughing) BUT THE QUALITY IS PROBABLY DIFFERENT-- I'M SURE THE ADA BRIDGE IS MUCH BETTER QUALITY. (audience laughing) >> DO THEY LOOK AS NICE AS THE ADA BRIDGE? >> THEY LOOK PRETTY NICE, BUT I AM TALKING ABOUT SUBSTANCE, QUALITY. >> I AM INTERESTED IN THE GHOST CITY YOU SHOWED US IN AFRICA, AND IT IS VERY, VERY SIMILAR TO THE STORY WE SAW ON "60 MINUTES" THREE WEEKS AGO ABOUT THE GHOST CITIES IN CHINA. SO TIM, I WOULD LIKE TO DIRECT THIS QUESTION YOU. ARE THE CHINESE GETTING AHEAD OF THEMSELVES WITH ALL THIS OVER-BUILDING OF THE GHOST CITIES IN TERMS OF SIX OR SEVEN MILES OF COMMERCIAL STRUCTURES AND TALL RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS THAT ARE COMPLETELY VACANT AND LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE VACANT FOR A LONG TIME? OR DO THEY SEEM TO HAVE A STRATEGY WHERE THEY ARE STARTING TO FILL THESE MANY GHOST CITIES? >> I THINK THE SITUATION ABOUT THESE OVERBUILT-- OR THESE CITIES IN MONGOLIA AND OTHER PLACES THAT ARE SORT OF GHOST CITIES OR GHOST COMPLEXES MAY BE A LITTLE DIFFERENT THAN ANGOLA. IN CHINA, THE LEADERSHIP INVESTORS ARE BUILDING ON THE CUNG. THEY ARE BUILDING IN ADVANCE. THEY ARE EXPECTING PEOPLE TO BE THERE SOME TIME, RIGHT? BUT IT STILL CREATES A BUBBLE. I HAD AN OPPORTUNITY THIS RECENT TRIP TO GO OUTSIDE OF SHANGHAI TO SORT OF A TIER TWO CITY, A SMALL CITY OF 2 MILLION, AND ON THE WAY, I SAW A NEW AIRPORT THAT WAS BEING BUILT. SO I WAS GOING FROM THE PROVINCIAL CAPITAL TO THIS TIER TWO CITY. AND THIS AIRPORT, THE DRIVER WAS TELLING ME, IS GOING TO BE THE THIRD LARGEST AIRPORT IN CHINA. IT IS HUGE. I GOOGLED IT WHEN I GOT HOME, AND INDEED, IT IS HUGE. I CAN'T BELIEVE WHO IS GOING TO BE FLYING THERE BECAUSE THE PROVINCIAL CAPITAL IS ALREADY AN OUT-OF-THE WAY CAPITAL, BUT HERE IS THIS HUGE FACILITY BEING BUILT. BUT YET, THEY ARE NOT JUST DOING IT TO HAVE A GHOST AIRPORT. THEY ARE EXPECTING IT TO BE FILLED. BUT THERE IS DEFINITELY SUSPICION OF A-- A REAL SUSPICION OF A BUBBLE BOTH IN COMMERCIAL HOUSING IN CHINA AND PROBABLY IN SOME OF THESE INFRASTRUCTURE COMPLEXES. BUT I WAS THE ONE WHO, IN 1993, WHEN I WAS WITH McKINSEY AND I SAW PUDONG JUST LEVEL ALL THE HOUSES, AND I SAID, "HA, THE GOVERNMENT IS FOOLISH. "I MEAN, WHY ARE THEY LEVELING THIS? "NOBODY IS GOING TO BE HERE." AND NOW, YOU LOOK AT PUDONG AND IT IS JUST AN INCREDIBLE CITY. SO I THINK THERE IS A BIT OF BUBBLE, YES. >> TO ANSWER THAT QUESTION, WE CAN BORROW FROM THE STUDENTS WHO ARE TAKING THE CLASS FOR THIS SERIES. ONE OF THE REFERENCE BOOKS BY BARBARA (indistinct), SHE ANSWERS THIS QUESTION BY SAYING THAT IT IS CHINA TRYING TO CONSCIOUSLY USE STRATEGIES THAT WORK TO DEVELOP IT. THEN THEY SAY THAT JAPAN IN THE '50s WAS TYING ITS AID TO CHINA IN TERMS OF LOANS-- INVESTMENT LOANS AND TECHNOLOGY ALL TIED TO SPECIFIC PROJECTS. SO THAT IS WHAT CHINA IS TRYING TO DO. IT IS GOING TO USE THE SAME MODEL THAT DEVELOPED IT TO DEVELOP AFRICA. >> INTERESTING. >> I UNDERSTAND THAT SOME OF OUR MICHIGAN BUSINESSES THAT WERE PRODUCING SOLAR PANELS WERE PUT OUT OF BUSINESS BECAUSE CHINA CAN MAKE THEM CHEAPER, AND YET, CHINA HAS AIR POLLUTION THAT IS SO BAD THAT THE SUN CAN'T REALLY COME THROUGH VERY WELL. (audience laughing) I AM WONDERING WHERE THEY ARE BEING SOLD TO. I GUESS OUR DEMAND WAS DOWN ALSO, BUT MAYBE THAT WILL IMPROVE. BUT I ALWAYS THOUGHT AFRICA WAS SUPPOSED TO BE THE CONTINENT WHERE WE COULD EXPERIENCE THE LEAPFROG EFFECT, WHERE WE WOULDN'T GO THROUGH THESE SAME AWFUL PROCESSES TO HAVE, QUOTE, "ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT" VERSUS-- WHEN PEOPLE TALK ABOUT LONG-TERM INVESTMENT AND NOT EXPLOITING THE ENVIRONMENT AS THE WAY TO GO FOR THAT, AND YET PUTTING UP ALL THESE CEMENT STRUCTURES THAT AREN'T BEING USED AND STILL EXPLOITING... I GUESS, DOES SUSTAINABILITY MEAN ANYTHING? I GUESS I WOULD LIKE TO ASK DR. STEKETEE TO HAVE SOME INPUT THERE... (chuckling) IN HER OPINIONS BECAUSE I KNOW SHE HAS BEEN INVOLVED FOR A WHILE. >> THAT IS REALLY PUTTING ME ON THE SPOT HERE... (laughing) BUT IT IS ONE OF THE QUESTIONS I ACTUALLY HAD FOR TIM AND GERALD-- HOW DO YOU LIKE THAT MANEUVER? BECAUSE WHAT ARE THE EFFORTS THAT THEY ARE TAKING TO HARMONIZE BUSINESS, ENVIRONMENTAL, AND SOCIAL INTERESTS, AND I THINK YOU HAVE PUT YOUR FINGER ON THE EXACT QUESTION IS, "CAN WE DO IT DIFFERENTLY IN AFRICA?" UNDERSTANDING THAT WE ARE LOOKING AT GLOBAL COMMERCE, GLOBAL TRADE, GLOBAL SECURITY, PARTICULARLY WHEN WE TALK ABOUT THE ENVIRONMENT, ARE WE SEEING CHINA DO ANYTHING DIFFERENTLY THERE OR CAN WE EXPECT THEM TO DO SOMETHING DIFFERENT THERE? THAT IS A QUESTION I AM GOING TO TOSS BACK. >> I DON'T THINK THEY ARE GOING TO DO ANYTHING DIFFERENT AT THE MOMENT, BECAUSE WHAT IS THE MOTIVATION TO DO ANYTHING DIFFERENT? UNLESS THE AFRICAN NATIONS THEN SAY, "YOU CAN'T BUILD IT "UNLESS YOU MEET THESE TWO, THREE STANDARDS," BUT THE AFRICAN NATIONS ARE HUNGRY FOR INVESTMENT FUNDS, AND INVESTMENT FUNDS ARE HARD TO COME BY, AND AS WE JUST RULED OUT, THE I.M.F. AND WORLD BANK FROM HELPING ARE JUST LEFT WITH CHINA. TO GIVE YOU AN EXAMPLE OF HOW CHINA APPROACHES-- IN 2004, CHINA EXTENDED A $2 BILLION CREDIT TO ANGOLA SO THEY COULD GO AHEAD AND REPAIR THE RAILROAD AND BUILD A ROAD, OFFICE, CONSTRUCTION, FIBER OPTIC, ET CETERA. THEN, USING THAT, THEY GAVE, MORE OR LESS, A LOAN AT 1.5 PERCENT PAYABLE IN OIL FROM AN OIL FIELD THAT WAS PRODUCING 10,000 BARRELS OF OIL PER DAY. WHEN THEY FOUND THAT IS NOT EVEN FAVORABLE ENOUGH THEY DROPPED TO 0.25 PERCENT OF INTEREST TO BE SPREAD OVER 17 YEARS AND THEN, WITH A GRACE PERIOD OF FIVE YEARS. WHO CAN REFUSE THAT DEAL? >> TIM, SOME OBSERVATIONS? >> I WOULD HOPE THAT-- IN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, AS IT MOVES OUT AND GOES FROM COUNTRIES LIKE CHINA TO COUNTRIES IN AFRICA, THEY COULD DEVELOP NICELY AND SUSTAINABLY. I DON'T KNOW IF THAT IS A PIPE DREAM OR NOT. I THINK IN CHINA, WHAT WE HAVE LEARNED, FOR EXAMPLE, IN INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY IS THAT CHINA IS FAMOUS-- YOU KNOW, THE CHINESE WILL ROB A WESTERN COMPANY OF ITS INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY, SO WHAT THEY SAY NOW IS THAT, "WELL, CHINESE WILL BEHAVE DIFFERENTLY "WHEN CHINESE START ROBBING CHINESE COMPANIES' "INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY." THEN YOU WILL HAVE REAL ENFORCEMENT OF THE I.P. LAWS. AND THE SAME THING-- IT IS TERRIBLE TO SAY THIS, AND IT MAY BE A LITTLE BIT AMATEURIST, BUT THE ENVIRONMENTAL SITUATION DEGRADATION IN CHINA IS SO BAD AND MILLIONS OF CHINESE ARE SUFFERING BECAUSE OF THIS HUGE POLLUTION CLOUD IS COVERING NOT ONLY NORTHERN CHINA BUT IS MOVING DOWN-- THE GOVERNMENT IS ALMOST BEING FORCED TO RESPOND. SO IN A SENSE, YOU HAVE TO HAVE PAIN TO RESPOND. AND I HOPE THAT IS GOOD. I WOULD HOPE THAT IT WOULD HAPPEN FAST ENOUGH SO THAT COMPANIES IN CHINA WILL LEARN, INDEED, TO BE BETTER CORPORATE CITIZENS, AND THEN WHEN THEY MOVE OFFSHORE, THEY WILL BRING THOSE PRACTICES. BUT MY EXPERIENCE WITH AMERICAN COUNTRIES IS AMERICAN COMPANIES HAVE-- SOME COMPANIES HAVE CERTAIN BEHAVIORS HERE AND THEN THEY GO TO LOCAL COMPANIES OFFSHORE AND SAY, "WELL, WE HAVE TO BEHAVE LIKE THEY DO OVERSEAS "SO WE CAN RELAX," WHICH REALLY IS NOT BEING A GOOD CORPORATE CITIZEN. >> YEAH, I DO KNOW. FACTOR IN ENVIRONMENTAL COST INTO G.P.D. I MEAN, I THOUGHT THAT WAS A GIVEN AT THIS POINT. >> ENVIRONMENTAL COSTS ARE FIGURED INTO G.D.P., BUT THEY ARE FIGURED IN THE WRONG WAY, IN THAT WE INCREASE OUR G.P.D. THE MORE POLLUTION WE HAVE BECAUSE WE HAVE LOTS OF ACTIVITY TO CLEAN IT UP. SO THERE IS SOME PROBLEMS WITH OUR CALCULATIONS AND WHAT WE CONSIDER TO BE A POSITIVE CONTRIBUTION TO G.D.P. WE ARE LOOKING AT DIFFERENT KINDS OF METRICS, AND I THINK THAT IS SOMETHING WE CAN MAYBE LOOK AT AS WE TALK ABOUT THIS. ONE OTHER FACTOR THAT WE HAD IN OUR DISCUSSIONS IN PREPARING FOR TONIGHT'S EVENT WAS "WHAT IS THE ROLE OF N.G.O.s "IN AFRICAN COUNTRIES, IN GLOBAL SETTINGS, "TO HELP US MOVE TOWARD DIFFERENT MODELS OF DEVELOPMENT "IN PLACES WHERE DEVELOPMENT IS GREATLY NEEDED "BUT WITH SIGNIFICANT CHALLENGES?" AND I THINK THAT IS PERHAPS A TOPIC FOR ANOTHER DAY BUT SOMETHING TO CONSIDER, SINCE THAT HAS REALLY BEEN THE PUSH FOR REFORM OF U.S. DEVELOPMENT EFFORTS AND ATTENTION TO ENVIRONMENT IN DIFFERENT COUNTRIES. DO YOU HAVE A QUESTION? >> TIM, YOU AND I HAVE CHASED EACH OTHER ALL OVER CHINA FOR THE LAST FIVE OR TEN YEARS. EVERY TIME I WOULD GO TO THE AIRPORT, I WOULD SEE TIM. HE WOULD BE GOING ONE PLACE IN CHINA, AND I WOULD BE GOING ANOTHER. A COUPLE COMMENTS BEFORE A QUESTION. I WAS IN AUTOMOTIVE MANUFACTURING, AND I WAS FORCED BY THE AUTOMOTIVE COUNTRIES TO GO TO CHINA. THEY WANTED AT LEAST 15 PERCENT CONTENT IN THEIR TOOLING FROM OVERSEAS, AND THE REASON THEY WANTED THAT IS THEY WANTED CHEAP PRICES, AND THEY KNEW IF WE WENT OVERSEAS-- I HAD TO GO OVERSEAS, I WOULD GET CHEAPER PRICES. AND I LEARNED A COUPLE THINGS. ONE THING, THE WAY THE MANUFAC-- I AM NOT HERE TO LECTURE, BUT THE WAY THE MANUFACTURING WORKS IN CHINA IS SO MUCH DIFFERENT THAN IT IS HERE. I WENT THERE FOR CHEAP LABOR. I HAD TO FIND CHEAP LABOR TO AUGMENT MY OWN HUNDREDS OF EMPLOYEES. I DIDN'T WANT TO, BUT I HAD TO. ONCE I WAS THERE, I STARTED REALIZING THEIR MANUFACTURING COMPANIES MEASURED DIFFERENT THAN WE DO HERE, AND THEIR GOVERNMENT-- I WOULD GO INTO SOME OF THESE FACTORIES, THESE MANUFACTURING PLANTS, WHERE I WAS GETTING MY TOOLING MADE, AND I WOULD SEE BRAND NEW MACHINES AN EIGHTH OF A MILE LONG, AND I WOULD THINK, "HOW CAN THEY AFFORD THESE MACHINES?" I CAN ONLY BUY MAYBE A MILLION DOLLARS A YEAR IN NEW EQUIPMENT, AND I AM LOOKING AT BRAND NEW EQUIPMENT THAT IS $20 OR $30 MILLION. I AM THINKING-- THESE PEOPLE-- THESE GOOD, CHINESE PEOPLE ARE HARD WORKING BUT DON'T KNOW HOW TO USE THE EQUIPMENT, SO HOW CAN THEY BE MAKING ENOUGH MONEY TO GET ALL THIS EQUIPMENT? LITTLE DID I REALIZE-- AND WHEN YOU GO TO CHINA, YOU DON'T JUST GO THERE FOUR TIMES AND UNDERSTAND WHAT IS HAPPENING. LIKE TIM-- TIM GOES THERE 12 TIMES A YEAR. >> I STILL DON'T UNDERSTAND. (audience laughing) >> AND HE IS NOT REAL PROUD OF THAT, I AM SURE. BUT YOU HAVE TO GET CAUGHT UP IN IT TO REALLY UNDERSTAND IT, BECAUSE IT CAN BE A FACADE, BUT THEN YOU START REALIZING THE GOVERNMENT, WHICH IS TOTALLY DIFFERENT THAN HERE, WILL PUT THE ASSETS IN THE MANUFACTURING COMPANIES, AND THOSE COMPANIES CAN THEN USE THE ASSETS. ME BEING IN MANUFACTURING, THE GOVERNMENT NEVER PUT ANY IN MINE, BUT PUT THE ASSETS THERE SO THE COMPANIES CAN USE THEM TO GENERATE, NUMBER ONE, MORE REVENUE FOR THAT COMPANY-- >> EXCUSE ME. CAN WE BRING THIS TO A QUESTION? >> OKAY. TIM, ARE WE GOING TO BE ABLE TO GO TO AFRICA TO LOOK FOR THIS CHEAP LABOR IN TWO YEARS OR FIVE YEARS, SO WHEN THINGS SAY "MADE IN CHINA," ARE THEY GOING TO BE MADE IN AFRICA? IS THAT ONE OF OUR NEXT HUNTS FOR LABOR FOR MANUFACTURING? >> THANK YOU. >> I'LL ADD THIS QUESTION-- IT GOES ALONG WITH THIS. FROM THE AUDIENCE, SOMEONE ASKED, "HOW MUCH OF MY IPOD AND IPHONE "ARE MADE WITH MATERIALS-- IT SAYS 'MADE IN CHINA,' "BUT HOW MUCH OF THAT IS ACTUALLY COMING FROM AFRICA?" SO I THINK IT DOVETAILS WITH THAT QUESTION, AND IT WILL BE A NICE WAY TO FINISH UP. >> TO GET TO YOUR QUESTION, CHINA IS-- BY THE TIME YOU GET THERE, CHINA WILL BE THERE. BECAUSE WHAT THEY ARE DOING RIGHT NOW IS THEY ARE RE-STRUCTURING AND MOVING AWAY FROM MANUFACTURING OF APPAREL AND CLOTHING AND SHOES TO AFRICA. THAT IS WHY THEY ARE CREATING THESE ZONES, SO THEY ARE TRYING TO ESTABLISH MANUFACTURING ZONES IN AFRICA. SO BY THE TIME YOU GO TO AFRICA, THEY WILL ALREADY BE THERE, SO BE PREPARED TO COMPETE WITH THEM. THE ITEMS THAT COME FROM AFRICA THAT YOU WOULD BUY HERE-- MADE IN CHINA BUT THROUGH AFRICA-- MAINLY WILL BE CLOTHES AND APPAREL. THE AMERICAN GROWTH OPPORTUNITY ACT, A.G.O.A., SEVERAL AFRICAN COUNTRIES ARE ALLOWED A GENEROUS ENTRY OF PRODUCTS THAT ARE MADE IN AFRICA. SO CHINESE COMPANIES HAVE SET SHOP IN AFRICA AND BASICALLY USING SOME OF THESE AFRICAN COUNTRIES AS PLATFORMS FOR EXPORT, WHILE OTHERS-- THEY ARE EXPORTING THOSE THINGS WHICH AFRICAN COUNTRIES COULD NOT EVEN MEET THE QUOTA. FOR THE IPODS, I DON'T KNOW. MAYBE TIM KNOWS. >> TO YOUR QUESTION, HE HAS A VERY HIGHLY ENGINEERED TOOLING COMPANY, AND AS HE IS TALKING ABOUT THAT-- CAN THAT BE COMPETITIVE IN AN AFRICAN COUNTRY? I AM GOING BACK TO MY NOTES AND SEEING THE ADULT LITERACY RATE IN AFRICA IS 63 PERCENT. SO WHAT I AM SAYING IS THERE ARE CERTAIN BUSINESSES THAT YOU COULD PROBABLY BE SUCCESSFUL WITH IN AFRICA, GIVEN TODAY'S SOCIAL, EDUCATIONAL ENVIRONMENT. BUT IN ORDER TO GET TO MORE ADVANCED INDUSTRIES, SUCH AS YOURS, IT WILL TAKE TIME AND A LOT OF WORK ON THE AFRICAN GOVERNMENT'S SIDE TO DEVELOP THEIR PEOPLE. SO I THINK YOUR QUESTION, BEING TOOLING, IS NOT PARTICULARLY REALISTIC. ON THE OTHER HAND, WHY ARE ALL THE INVESTMENT BANKS AND E & Y AND THE McKINSEYS, WHY ARE THEY SO EXCITED ABOUT AFRICA? AND THIS IS SOMETHING THAT WAS A REVELATION TO ME. THE RAPID ECONOMIC GROWTH THAT IS STARTING TO TAKE PLACE IN AFRICA IN GENERAL, ON AVERAGE, IS STARTLING, IS VERY POSITIVE. SO WHEN YOU ARE LOOKING AT ONE BILLION PEOPLE-- AS WE SAY IN CHINA, 1.3 BILLION, AND LOOKING AT AFRICA, ONE BILLION PEOPLE-- OF COURSE YOU HAVE TO TAKE INTO CONSIDERATION IT IS 54 COUNTRIES-- AND YOU THINK ABOUT THE FUTURE MARKET POTENTIAL IF AFRICA COULD START BEING ON A MOVE. YOU WOULD HAVE EVENTUALLY, 20 YEARS FROM NOW, MAYBE ITS OWN AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY, AND THEN YOU WOULD HAVE ALL THE SUPPORTING INDUSTRY. SO IF AFRICA DEVELOPS SMOOTHLY, AND I HOPE IT DOES-- SOME OF THE COUNTRIES ANYWAY-- THEN GIVEN THAT POPULATION AND GROWING MIDDLE CLASS THAT WOULD TAKE PLACE, IT WOULD BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR YOUR TYPE OF COMPANY TO BE ESTABLISHED. BUT IT IS A LONG ROAD. FINALLY, CHINA'S EXPERIENCE, WHETHER IT CAN BE REPLICATED IN AFRICA OR NOT-- I THINK CHINA'S EXPERIENCE-- THIS RAPID GROWTH THAT I TRIED TO DESCRIBE TO YOU THAT TOOK PLACE OVER 20 TO 30 YEARS IS UNPRECEDENTED IN HISTORY. IT HAS A LOT OF ITS PROBLEMS BUT A LOT OF SUCCESSES, OBVIOUSLY. ONE OF ITS ISSUES IS ENVIRONMENTAL, CIVIL LAW, CIVIL SOCIETY, SUSTAINABILITY. ALL THESE THINGS ARE LAGGING WAY BEHIND RAPID GROWTH, BECAUSE GROWTH HAS COME FIRST, AND NOW THEY ARE ALL SCRAMBLING TO CATCH UP AS CHINA'S ENVIRONMENT IS DETERIORATING AND SO ON AND SO ON. SO THERE ARE A LOT OF PLUSES AND SOME MINUSES. I HOPE THAT IS AN OBTUSE ANSWER TO YOUR QUESTION. >> WE HAVE ONE MORE QUESTION? JUST AS THE SPEAKER IS COMING DOWN, ONE LITTLE TIDBIT TO THE IPOD QUESTION, WHICH IS SORT OF INTERESTING IN THAT WE JUST HAD A SPEAKER COME TO CAMPUS WHO WAS FROM FORD MOTOR COMPANY, AND IT WAS VERY STRIKING IN THAT FORD MOTOR COMPANY HAS ABOUT 450,000 SUPPLIERS. THEY HAVE A 12 TIER SUPPLY CHAIN. AND THEY ARE SCRAMBLING RIGHT NOW BECAUSE U.S. POLICY HAS DEALT WITH CONFLICT MINERALS. SO WHEN WE TALK ABOUT CHINA IN AFRICA, MAYBE IT IS CHINA AND U.S. TOGETHER IN AFRICA WITH ALL THAT THAT REPRESENTS. SO, PLEASE. >> WITH CHINA'S EFFORT IN AFRICA, ARE THEY DOING ANYTHING TOWARDS WATER, AGRICULTURE, THE PEOPLE THAT LIVE THERE, TO HELP THEM INCREASE THEIR STANDARD AND MAKE THEIR LIFE BETTER, OR ARE THEY CONCERNED ONLY ABOUT INDUSTRIAL AND EXTRACTING WHAT THEY CAN OUT OF AFRICA? LIKE MICHIGAN STATE UNIVERSITY, WHICH YOU GO TO, WHICH YOU HAVE COME FROM, HAS A BIG EFFORT IN AFRICA FOR AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT AND FOR-- WATER IS A SERIOUS PROBLEM FOR THE PEOPLE IN MANY PLACES AND SO ON. >> A VERY IMPORTANT QUESTION. >> I LIKE YOUR T-SHIRT. (audience chuckling) AND AS YOU SAID, WHEN I WAS AT MICHIGAN STATE, I ACTUALLY WORKED WITH THE FOOD SECURITY PROJECT THAT HAS MANY PROGRAMS IN AFRICA, MALI, KENYA, MOZAMBIQUE, ET CETERA. FROM THE RESEARCH I DID ON CHINA, THEY ARE ONLY NOW BEGINNING TO GET INTO AGRICULTURE, BUT THEY ARE NOT FULLY, TO THE EXTENT THAT WE ARE THINKING IN TERMS OF ACTUALLY GETTING PEOPLE OUT OF POVERTY. THERE ARE A FEW PROJECTS THAT DEAL WITH PROVIDING WATER, ESPECIALLY IN ANGOLA. IT IS NOT WIDESPREAD YET. IT IS NOT AT THE LEVEL THAT CAN BE COMPARED TO THE CONSTRUCTION OF ROADS. YET, CONSTRUCTION OF ROADS SHOULD NOT BE UNDERESTIMATED AS EVEN BEING ALSO AN ENGINE TOWARDS HELPING PEOPLE OUT OF POVERTY, BECAUSE THEN PEOPLE CAN BE ABLE TO BRING THEIR PRODUCE FROM WHEREVER THEY PRODUCE IT TO THE MARKET CENTERS IN THE CITIES. THAT BEING SAID, ANOTHER THING THAT CHINA IS DOING THAT IS DEVELOPMENTAL IN NATURE IS PROVIDING ELECTRICITY TO VARIOUS PLACES. THERE ARE STILL MANY PLACES IN AFRICA WITHOUT ACCESS TO ELECTRICITY. IT IS NOT AS FOCUSED ON AGRICULTURE AND PROVISION OF WATER LIKE SAY SOMEONE WHO BELIEVES WHAT M.S.U. DOES, LIKE I DO, WOULD LIKE TO SEE, BUT IT IS MAKING STEPS IN THAT DIRECTION. >> I KNOW THAT CHINESE ARE ALSO WORKING ON EXPERIMENTAL HYBRID RICE STATIONS TO DEVELOP HYBRID RICE THAT COULD BE EASILY AND AFFORDABLY PURCHASED BY LOCAL-- AS SEED. >> THANK YOU. THANK YOU, TIM, GERALD, AND DEB FOR A VERY STIMULATING TALK. I HOPE YOU WILL JOIN ME IN GIVING THEM A ROUND OF APPLAUSE. (applause)