Backcasting

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Backcasting is a planning method that starts with defining a desirable future and then works backwards to identify policies and programs that will connect that specified future to the present.^[1] The fundamentals of the method were outlined by John B. Robinson from the University of Waterloo in 1990.^[2] The fundamental question of backcasting asks: "if we want to attain a certain goal, what actions must be taken to get there?"^[3]^[4]

While forecasting involves predicting the future based on current trend analysis, backcasting approaches the challenge of discussing the future from the opposite direction; it is "a method in which the future desired conditions are envisioned and steps are then defined to attain those conditions, rather than taking steps that are merely a continuation of present methods extrapolated into the future".^[5]

In statistics and data analysis, backcasting can be considered to be the opposite of forecasting; thus:

forecasting involves the prediction of the future (unknown) values of the dependent variables based on known values of the independent variable.
backcasting involves the prediction of the unknown values of the independent variables that might have existed, in order to explain the known values of the dependent variable.^[6]

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hi Alex here you probably know this famous quote by Albert Einstein we cannot solve our problems with the thinking we used when we created them so what does this mean for solving our sustainability problems Why is it so hard to plan strategically towards sustainability together as a society well research shows that in large groups of people the most common planning methodology is forecasting using trends from the past projecting them in the future and fixing problems to improve it this is OK when we are on the right trajectory but it's like driving using only your rearview mirror hoping that the road ahead is going to be the exact logical continuation of the last few kilometers it sounds dangerous and yet this is what we're doing and it may also mean that we are not asking an important question what if we need to change direction? what if we want or need a very different future from where we're heading? here is an example of what forecasting applied to decision-making looks like in our society today let's say that we are about seven billion people on Earth today trends suggest that we will be around nine billion in 2050 everybody needs to drive to work and travel for business and holiday therefore we need to build many more cars roads planes airports et cetera it doesn't seem to leave a lot of room for creativity or something different right so don't get me wrong forecasting is not always bad it's actually a very good way to build upon successes to understand problems adapt and become more resilient the funnel metaphor that we used in a previous video is a great example of useful forecasting but it's not enough to plan and a very complex system like our world when the actual trends are part of the problem by definition forecasting will reproduce in the future problems that we already have today in this article why sustainability is now the key driver of innovation the Harvard Business Review suggests don't start from the present if the starting point is the current approach to business the view of the future is likely to be an optimistic extrapolation it's better to start from the future so as Einstein suggested in his quote we need a different way of thinking we need backcasting from success planning from the future individually we all use backcasting all the time think about the last time you planned your holiday did you look only a trends of where everybody else was going? of course not what if the trendiest destinations were white sand beaches in the pacific and you like hiking in the mountains you probably had a vision of what success looked like for your holiday and you planned step by step toward it in order to find the best destination given your own constraints like budget, dates, hiking skills, etc. the game of chess is a complex system where players use backcasting both players share a very clear vision of success in principles called checkmate they don't know in detail what the board is going to look like at the end of the game but they do know that one of the two kings will not be able to escape from capture knowing this they make all their decisions in order to achieve checkmate adjusting their strategy turn after turn depending on that you look of the board to plan successfully and strategically toward a truly sustainable future we need to use backcasting from sustainability principles this can help us agree even in large groups on what the principles of success are for sustainability we don't need to waste time and resources on short-term ad hoc decisions that do not get us closer to sustainability checkmate we don't need to argue on the details of what a sustainable society (the chessboard) looks like in the end we don't need to reproduce in the future problems that we have today instead we can adjust our strategy step-by-step as new technologies and inventions appear in order to achieve success so if we agree that backcasting from sustainability principles sounds like a good way forward what is checkmate for sustainability what are the sustainability principles that we need to backcast from? Well we'll find out in the next video so please subscribe if you like the content and thank you for watching

Backcasting vs. Forecasting

Temporal representation of backcasting.^[7]

Backcasting, a term first coined by John B. Robinson in 1982,^[8] involves establishing the description of a very definite and very specific future situation. It then involves an imaginary moving backwards in time, step-by-step, in as many stages as are considered necessary, from the future to the present to reveal the mechanism through which that particular specified future could be attained from the present.^[9]

Backcasting is not concerned with predicting the future:

The major distinguishing characteristic of backcasting analyses is the concern, not with likely energy futures, but with how desirable futures can be attained. It is thus explicitly normative, involving "working backwards" from a particular future end-point to the present to determine what policy measures would be required to reach that future.^[10]

According to Jansen (1994, p. 503):

Within the framework of technological development, “forecasting” concerns the extrapolation of developments towards the future and the exploration of achievements that can be realized through technology in the long term. Conversely, the reasoning behind “backcasting” is: on the basis of an interconnecting picture of demands technology must meet in the future — “sustainability criteria” — to direct and determine the process that technology development must take and possibly also the pace at which this development process must take effect.

Backcasting [is] both an important aid in determining the direction technology development must take and in specifying the targets to be set for this purpose. As such, backcasting is an ideal search toward determining the nature and scope of the technological challenge posed by sustainable development, and it can thus serve to direct the search process toward new — sustainable — technology.

Practical applications

Backcasting is increasingly used in urban planning and resource management of water and energy. It was used by Peter Gleick and colleagues at the Pacific Institute in a 1995 study on California water policy, as an alternative to traditional California water planning approaches.^[11] In 2006, the Capital Regional District Water Services, which services the greater Victoria area in British Columbia, Canada, committed to backcasting to the year 2050 as a formal element of all future strategic water planning initiatives.^[12]

Backcasting is a key component of the soft energy path, a concept developed by Amory Lovins after the shock of the 1973 energy crisis in the United States.^[13]

Backcasting from Principles

Backcasting from principles is used within the world of creation, design, policy, strategy, science and are seen as principles or constraints which define success^{[citation needed]}. Contrary to backcasting from scenarios, which uses defined scenario's or visuals of a future, it uses principles to be met to define a desired future. It allows those working towards success to iteratively test whether their creation or solution is moving in the right direction. Especially when dealing with long-term transformations and transitions, working with principles is like working with a Compass, or a North Star.

Backcasting from Sustainability Principles,^[14] or System conditions of sustainability is a key concept of the "Framework for Strategic Sustainable Development" (FSSD) pioneered by Karl-Henrik Robèrt, founder of The Natural Step, an international nonprofit organization dedicated to applied research for sustainability, in cooperation with a global academic Alliance for Strategic Sustainable Development which links universities which cooperate with businesses, and other NGOs. It has been refined and tested by peer-review and application within businesses (widely known examples are: Interface, Nike, Whistler, Volvo).

Specific sustainability-related topics, such as climate mitigation, poverty elevation, biodiversity loss, may also be approached by backcasting from principles, but often with principles related to the topic only. This risks creating solutions that create new sustainability problems later, or elsewhere as they are not taken into account when thinking of the solution.

Backcasting is used in climate reconstruction or cosmology to determine the conditions (i.e., values of unknown independent variables) that existed in the distant past based on known (more accurately estimated) values of past dependent variables.^[15]

Research groups that use backcasting

Notes

^ Page 12. The Soft Path for Water in a Nutshell (2005). Oliver M Brandes and David B. Brooks. A joint publication of Friends of the Earth Canada and the POLIS Project on Ecological Governance. University of Victoria, Victoria BC.
^ Robinson, John B. 1990. Futures under glass: a recipe for people who hate to predict Futures, vol. 22, issue 8, pp. 820–842.
^ Tinker, J. 1996. From 'Introduction' ix-xv. Life in 2030: Exploring a Sustainable Future for Canada, edited by J.B. Robinson et al. Vancouver: University of British Columbia Press.
^ Page 5. Environmental Change and Challenge : A Canadian Perspective by Philip Dearden, Bruce Mitchell. ISBN 0-19-541014-9 / 9780195410143 / 0-19-541014-9. Oxford University Press.
^ Holmberg & Robèrt (2000), p.294.
^ Stan Development Team (2014-07-20). Stan Modeling Language: User's Guide and Reference Manual. Stan. p. 39. Archived from the original on 2014-08-19. Retrieved 2014-08-17.
^ Taken from Yeates, 2004, p.147.
^ See Robinson (1982, 1988, 2003).
^ Robinson's backcasting approach is very similar to the anticipatory scenarios of Ducot and Lubben (1980), and Bunn and Salo (1993).
^ Derborg (1996), p.814.
^ Gleick, P.H., P. Loh, S.V. Gomez, J. Morrison. 1995. California Water 2020: A Sustainable Vision. Pacific Institute, Oakland, California (May 1995)
^ "Minutes of a meeting of the water advisory committee" (PDF). crd.bc.ca. Capital Regional District. p. 3. Archived from the original (PDF) on 15 June 2011. Retrieved 22 September 2022.
^ "Energy Strategy: The Road Not Taken?" published in Foreign Affairs, in October 1976
^ Ròbert, Karl-Henrik; John Holmberg (2000). "Backcasting - A framework for strategic planning". ResearchGate. International Journal Sustainable Development World Ecology. Retrieved 29 January 2022.
^ "Stan Development Team".

References

Bunn, D.W. & Salo, A.A., "Forecasting with Scenarios", European Journal of Operational Research, Vol.68, No.3, (13 August 1993), pp. 291–303.
Dreborg, K.H., "Essence of Backcasting", Futures, Vol.28, No.9, (November 1996), pp. 813–828. Archived 2017-12-01 at the Wayback Machine
Ducot, C. & Lubben, G.J., "A Typology for Scenarios", Futures, Vol.11, No.1, (February 1980), pp. 51–57.
Holmberg, J. & Robèrt, K.H. 2000, "Backcasting from non-overlapping sustainability principles: a framework for strategic planning", International Journal of Sustainable Development and World Ecology, 74, 291–308.
Jansen, L., "Towards a Sustainable Future, en route with Technology", pp. 496–525 in Dutch Committee for Long-Term Environmental Policy (ed.), The Environment: Towards a Sustainable Future (Environment & Policy, Volume 1), Kluwer Academic Publishers, (Dortrecht), 1994.
Robinson, J.B., "Energy Backcasting: A Proposed Method of Policy Analysis", Energy Policy, Vol.10, No.4 (December 1982), pp. 337–345.^{[permanent dead link]}
Robinson, J.B., "Unlearning and Backcasting: Rethinking Some of the Questions We Ask About the Future", Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol.33, No.4, (July 1988), pp. 325–338.
Robinson, J., "Future Subjunctive: Backcasting as Social Learning", Futures, Vol.35, No.8, (October 2003), pp. 839–856.
Yeates, L.B., Thought Experimentation: A Cognitive Approach, Graduate Diploma in Arts (By Research) Dissertation, University of New South Wales, 2004.

External links

The Soft Path for Water in a Nutshell (2005). Oliver M Brandes and David B. Brooks. A joint publication of Friends of the Earth Canada and the POLIS Project on Ecological Governance. University of Victoria, Victoria BC.
Backcasting Presentation from IA Summit 2007 - backcasting as a technique in Information Architecture
Slides for backcasting workshop - IA Summit 2008
Reverse Engineering the Future TEDx Talk Hildy Gottlieb, TEDxTucson 2011

This page was last edited on 25 October 2023, at 23:09

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