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2022 United States Senate elections

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

2022 United States Senate elections

← 2020 November 8, 2022 2024 →

34 of the 100 seats in the United States Senate
51 seats needed for a majority
 
Chuck Schumer official photo (cropped).jpg
Mitch McConnell 2016 official photo (cropped).jpg
Leader Chuck Schumer Mitch McConnell
Party Democratic Republican
Leader since January 3, 2017 January 3, 2007
Leader's seat New York Kentucky
Last election 48[a][b] 50
Seats needed Steady Increase 1
Seats up 14 20

 
Party Independent
Current seats 2[b]
Seats up 0

2022 United States Senate election in Alabama2022 United States Senate election in Alaska2022 United States Senate election in Arizona2022 United States Senate election in Arkansas2022 United States Senate election in California2022 United States Senate election in Colorado2022 United States Senate election in Connecticut2022 United States Senate election in Florida2022 United States Senate election in Georgia2022 United States Senate election in Hawaii2022 United States Senate election in Idaho2022 United States Senate election in Illinois2022 United States Senate election in Indiana2022 United States Senate election in Iowa2022 United States Senate election in Kansas2022 United States Senate election in Kentucky2022 United States Senate election in Louisiana2022 United States Senate election in Maryland2022 United States Senate election in Missouri2022 United States Senate election in Nevada2022 United States Senate election in New Hampshire2022 United States Senate election in New York2022 United States Senate election in North Carolina2022 United States Senate election in North Dakota2022 United States Senate election in Ohio2022 United States Senate election in Oklahoma2022 United States Senate election in Oregon2022 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania2022 United States Senate election in South Carolina2022 United States Senate election in South Dakota2022 United States Senate election in Utah2022 United States Senate election in Vermont2022 United States Senate election in Washington2022 United States Senate election in Wisconsin2022 US Senate map.svg
About this image
Map of the incumbents:
     Democratic incumbent
     Republican incumbent      Republican retiring
     No election

Incumbent Majority Leader

Chuck Schumer
Democratic



The 2022 United States Senate elections will be held on November 8, 2022, with 34 of the 100 seats in the Senate being contested in regular elections, the winners of which will serve six-year terms in the United States Congress from January 3, 2023, to January 3, 2029. Senators are divided into three groups, or classes, whose terms are staggered so that a different class is elected every two years. Class 3 senators were last elected in 2016, and will be up for election again in 2022.

All 34 Class 3 Senate seats are up for election in 2022; Class 3 currently consists of 14 Democrats and 20 Republicans. If a vacancy occurs, the corresponding state might require a special election to take place during the 117th Congress, possibly concurrently with the other 2022 Senate elections.

As of February 2021, four Republican senators have announced they are not seeking reelection, eight Republican senators are running for reelection, 11 Democratic senators are running for reelection, and no Democratic senators have announced plans for retirement.

Partisan composition

Parties Total
Democratic Independent Republican Unknown
Last election (2020) 48 2 50 0 100
Before these elections 48 2 50 0 100
Not up 34 2 30 0 66
Class 1 (20182024) 21 2 10 0 33
Class 2 (2020→2026) 13 0 20 0 33
Up 14 0 20 0 34
Class 3 (2016→2022) 14 0 20 0 34
Special: Class 1 & 2 0 0 0 0 0
General election
Incumbent retiring (declared) 0 4 TBD TBD
Incumbent running (declared) 11 8 0 TBD

Change in composition

Each block represents one of the one hundred seats in the U.S. Senate. "D#" is a Democratic senator, "I#" is an Independent senator, and "R#" is a Republican senator. They are arranged so the parties are separated and a majority is clear by crossing the middle.

Before the elections

Each block indicates an incumbent senator's actions going into the election.

D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8 D9 D10
D20 D19 D18 D17 D16 D15 D14 D13 D12 D11
D21 D22 D23 D24 D25 D26 D27 D28 D29 D30
D40
Hawaii
Running
D39
Ga.
Running
D38
Conn.
Running
D37
Colo.
Running
D36
Calif.
Running
D35
Ariz.
Running
D34 D33 D32 D31
D41
Ill.
Running
D42
Md.
Filed paperwork
D43
Nev.
Running
D44
N.H.
Running
D45
N.Y.
Filed paperwork
D46
Ore.
Running
D47
Vt.
Undeclared
D48
Wash.
Running
I1 I2
Majority (with Independents and Vice President) ↑
R41
Mo.
Running
R42
N.C.
Retiring
R43
N.D.
Running
R44
Ohio
Retiring
R45
Okla.
Undeclared
R46
Pa.
Retiring
R47
S.C.
Running
R48
S.D.
Undeclared
R49
Utah
Filed paperwork
R50
Wisc.
Filed paperwork
R40
La.
Undeclared
R39
Ky.
Undeclared
R38
Kans.
Running
R37
Iowa
Undeclared
R36
Ind.
Undeclared
R35
Idaho
Running
R34
Fla.
Running
R33
Ark.
Running
R32
Alaska
Running
R31
Ala.
Retiring
R21 R22 R23 R24 R25 R26 R27 R28 R29 R30
R20 R19 R18 R17 R16 R15 R14 R13 R12 R11
R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10

After the elections

D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8 D9 D10
D20 D19 D18 D17 D16 D15 D14 D13 D12 D11
D21 D22 D23 D24 D25 D26 D27 D28 D29 D30
Ark.
TBD
Ariz.
TBD
Alaska
TBD
Ala.
TBD
I2 I1 D34 D33 D32 D31
Calif.
TBD
Colo.
TBD
Conn.
TBD
Fla.
TBD
Ga.
TBD
Hawaii
TBD
Idaho
TBD
Ill.
TBD
Ind.
TBD
Iowa
TBD
Majority TBD →
Kans.
TBD
N.D.
TBD
N.C.
TBD
N.Y.
TBD
N.H.
TBD
Nev.
TBD
Mo.
TBD
Md.
TBD
La.
TBD
Ky.
TBD
Ohio
TBD
Okla.
TBD
Ore.
TBD
Pa.
TBD
S.C.
TBD
S.D.
TBD
Utah
TBD
Vt.
TBD
Wash.
TBD
Wisc.
TBD
R21 R22 R23 R24 R25 R26 R27 R28 R29 R30
R20 R19 R18 R17 R16 R15 R14 R13 R12 R11
R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10
Key:
D# Democratic
R# Republican
I# Independent, caucusing with Democrats

Predictions

Several sites and individuals published predictions of competitive seats. These predictions looked at factors such as the strength of the incumbent (if the incumbent was running for reelection) and the other candidates, and the state's partisan lean (reflected in part by the state's Cook Partisan Voting Index rating). The predictions assigned ratings to each seat, indicating the predicted advantage that a party had in winning that seat. Most election predictors used:

  • "tossup": no advantage
  • "tilt" (used by some predictors): minimal, smallest advantage
  • "lean": slight advantage
  • "likely": significant, but surmountable, advantage
  • "safe" or "solid": near-certain chance of victory
Constituency Incumbent 2022 election ratings
State PVI[1] Senator Last
election[c]
Cook
January 25,
2021
[2]
IE
February 10,
2021
[3]
Sabato
January 28,
2021
[4]
Alabama R+14 Richard Shelby
(retiring)
64.0% R Solid R Solid R Safe R
Alaska R+9 Lisa Murkowski 44.4% R Solid R Solid R Safe R
Arizona R+5 Mark Kelly 51.2% D
(2020 special)[d]
Lean D Battleground Lean D
Arkansas R+15 John Boozman 59.8% R Solid R Solid R Safe R
California D+12 Alex Padilla Appointed
(2021)[e]
Solid D Solid D Safe D
Colorado D+1 Michael Bennet 50.0% D Solid D Solid D Safe D
Connecticut D+6 Richard Blumenthal 63.2% D Solid D Solid D Safe D
Florida R+2 Marco Rubio 52.0% R Likely R Battleground Likely R
Georgia R+5 Raphael Warnock 51.0% D
(2020 special)[f]
Lean D Battleground Lean D
Hawaii D+18 Brian Schatz 73.6% D Solid D Solid D Safe D
Idaho R+19 Mike Crapo 66.1% R Solid R Solid R Safe R
Illinois D+7 Tammy Duckworth 54.9% D Solid D Solid D Safe D
Indiana R+9 Todd Young 52.1% R Solid R Solid R Safe R
Iowa R+3 Chuck Grassley 60.1% R Solid R Solid R Safe R
Kansas R+13 Jerry Moran 62.2% R Solid R Solid R Safe R
Kentucky R+15 Rand Paul 57.3% R Solid R Solid R Safe R
Louisiana R+11 John Kennedy 60.7% R Solid R Solid R Safe R
Maryland D+12 Chris Van Hollen 60.9% D Solid D Solid D Safe D
Missouri R+9 Roy Blunt 49.2% R Solid R Solid R Safe R
Nevada D+1 Catherine Cortez Masto 47.1% D Likely D Battleground Lean D
New Hampshire D+1 Maggie Hassan 48.0% D Likely D Battleground Lean D
New York D+11 Chuck Schumer 70.6% D Solid D Solid D Safe D
North Carolina R+3 Richard Burr
(retiring)
51.1% R Tossup Battleground Lean R
North Dakota R+16 John Hoeven 78.5% R Solid R Solid R Safe R
Ohio R+3 Rob Portman
(retiring)
58.0% R Lean R Solid R Likely R
Oklahoma R+20 James Lankford 67.7% R Solid R Solid R Safe R
Oregon D+5 Ron Wyden 56.6% D Solid D Solid D Safe D
Pennsylvania EVEN Pat Toomey
(retiring)
48.8% R Tossup Battleground Tossup
South Carolina R+8 Tim Scott 60.6% R Solid R Solid R Safe R
South Dakota R+14 John Thune 71.8% R Solid R Solid R Safe R
Utah R+20 Mike Lee 68.2% R Solid R Solid R Safe R
Vermont D+15 Patrick Leahy 60.0% D Solid D Solid D Safe D
Washington D+7 Patty Murray 59.0% D Solid D Solid D Safe D
Wisconsin EVEN Ron Johnson 50.2% R Lean R Battleground Lean R
Overall[g] D - 50
R - 48
2 tossups
D - 46
R - 46
8 battlegrounds
D - 50
R - 49
1 tossup

Potentially competitive races

In contrast to 2018, where Democrats were defending 10 seats in states that Donald Trump won in 2016, Democrats hold no seats in any state won by Trump in 2020. The GOP is defending two seats (Wisconsin and Pennsylvania) in states President Joe Biden won in 2020, compared to just one seat (Nevada) won by Hillary Clinton that was up for grabs in 2018.

Election outlets currently rate North Carolina and Pennsylvania as the most likely tossup races. Arizona, Georgia, Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Wisconsin are also rated as competitive, but with more noticeable advantages toward each state's respective defending party. In Iowa, the election, currently regarded as favored towards incumbent Chuck Grassley, could become competitive if he decides to retire.

Race summary

State
(linked to
summaries below)
Incumbent Results Major candidates[h][i]
Senator Party Electoral history
Alabama Richard Shelby Republican 1986
1992
1998
2004
2010
2016
Incumbent retiring.[5]
Alaska Lisa Murkowski Republican 2002 (Appointed)
2004
2010
2016
Incumbent running.
Arizona Mark Kelly Democratic 2020 (Special) Incumbent running.
Arkansas John Boozman Republican 2010
2016
Incumbent running.
California Alex Padilla Democratic 2021 (Appointed) Incumbent running.
Colorado Michael Bennet Democratic 2009 (Appointed)
2010
2016
Incumbent running.
Connecticut Richard Blumenthal Democratic 2010
2016
Incumbent running.
Florida Marco Rubio Republican 2010
2016
Incumbent running.
Georgia Raphael Warnock Democratic 2021 (Special) Incumbent running.
Hawaii Brian Schatz Democratic 2012 (Appointed)
2014 (Special)
2016
Incumbent running.
Idaho Mike Crapo Republican 1998
2004
2010
2016
Incumbent running.
Illinois Tammy Duckworth Democratic 2016 Incumbent running.
Indiana Todd Young Republican 2016 Incumbent's intent unknown.
  • TBD
Iowa Chuck Grassley Republican 1980
1986
1992
1998
2004
2010
2016
Incumbent's intent unknown.
Kansas Jerry Moran Republican 2010
2016
Incumbent running.
Kentucky Rand Paul Republican 2010
2016
Incumbent's intent unknown.[24]
  • TBD
Louisiana John Kennedy Republican 2016 Incumbent's intent unknown.
  • TBD
Maryland Chris Van Hollen Democratic 2016 Incumbent's intent unknown.
  • TBD
Missouri Roy Blunt Republican 2010
2016
Incumbent running.
Scott Sifton (Democratic)[26]
Nevada Catherine Cortez Masto Democratic 2016 Incumbent running.
New Hampshire Maggie Hassan Democratic 2016 Incumbent running.
New York Chuck Schumer Democratic 1998
2004
2010
2016
Incumbent's intent unknown.
  • TBD
North Carolina Richard Burr Republican 2004
2010
2016
Incumbent retiring.[30]
North Dakota John Hoeven Republican 2010
2016
Incumbent running.
Ohio Rob Portman Republican 2010
2016
Incumbent retiring.[35]
Oklahoma James Lankford Republican 2014 (Special)
2016
Incumbent's intent unknown.
  • TBD
Oregon Ron Wyden Democratic 1996 (Special)
1998
2004
2010
2016
Incumbent running.
Pennsylvania Pat Toomey Republican 2010
2016
Incumbent retiring.[40]
South Carolina Tim Scott Republican 2013 (Appointed)
2014 (Special)
2016
Incumbent running.
South Dakota John Thune Republican 2004
2010
2016
Incumbent's intent unknown.
  • TBD
Utah Mike Lee Republican 2010
2016
Incumbent's intent unknown.[45]
  • TBD
Vermont Patrick Leahy Democratic 1974
1980
1986
1992
1998
2004
2010
2016
Incumbent's intent unknown.
  • TBD
Washington Patty Murray Democratic 1992
1998
2004
2010
2016
Incumbent running.
Wisconsin Ron Johnson Republican 2010
2016
Incumbent's intent unknown.[47]

Alabama

Six-term Republican Richard Shelby was re-elected in 2016 with 64% of the vote. On February 8, 2021, Shelby announced that he will not seek re-election to a seventh term.[50]

Alaska

Three-term Republican Lisa Murkowski was re-elected in 2016 with 44.4% of the vote. Former governor and vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin is considering a primary challenge to Murkowski,[51] as are others. Alaska adopted a top-four jungle primary system in 2020, with the ultimate winner being decided via ranked-choice voting. Characterizations of the state as a "Safe" or "Solid" Republican stronghold may change if Murkowski decides to change her party affiliation to Independent as she has suggested after the Capitol insurrection. If she does so, she would most likely continue to caucus with Republicans in the Senate.[52]

Arizona

Incumbent Democrat Mark Kelly was elected in a 2020 special election with 51.2% of the vote.

Six-term senator and 2008 Republican presidential nominee John McCain was re-elected to this seat in 2016. However, he died on August 25, 2018, and former U.S. Senator Jon Kyl was appointed to replace him. Kyl resigned at the end of 2018 and was succeeded by outgoing U.S. Representative Martha McSally, who lost the 2020 special election to complete the term.

Republican governor Doug Ducey, who is term-limited, has said he will not run for Senate in 2022.[53]

Arkansas

Two-term Republican John Boozman was re-elected in 2016 with 59.8% of the vote. Boozman has not publicly announced plans to run for a third term, but has filed a formal Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission[54] and confirmed to CNN that he is running.[55] Dan Whitfield, who attempted to run as an independent for Arkansas' other U.S. Senate seat in 2020 but failed to meet the ballot access requirements,[56] is running as a Democrat.[12]

California

Incumbent Democrat Alex Padilla took office on January 20, 2021, after being appointed by governor Gavin Newsom. His appointment was caused by the resignation of incumbent Democrat Kamala Harris, who resigned her seat on January 18, 2021, to take her seat as Vice President of the United States. Padilla announced his intention to run for a full term in 2022.[57]

Colorado

Two-term Democrat Michael Bennet took office on January 21, 2009, after being appointed by then governor Bill Ritter to replace outgoing Democrat Ken Salazar, who was nominated by President Barack Obama to serve as United States Secretary of the Interior. He won an election to a full term in 2010, and to a second term in 2016, with 49.97% of the vote.

Connecticut

Two-term Democrat Richard Blumenthal was re-elected in 2016 with 63.2% of the vote. Republican Robert F. Hyde is running.[58][59]

Florida

Two-term Republican Marco Rubio was re-elected in 2016 with 52% of the vote. He announced on November 9, 2020, via Facebook, that he would be running for re-election.[18]

Possible Democratic candidates include U.S. Representative Val Demings,[60][61][62] State Representative Anna Eskamani,[61][63] Florida Commissioner of Agriculture Nikki Fried,[64] former U.S. Representative Gwen Graham,[64] U.S. Representative Stephanie Murphy,[61] and State Senator Jason Pizzo.[61]

Former U.S. Representative David Jolly, who was previously a Republican but is now independent, is considering running.[65]

Grace Granda, a business consultant, declared her candidacy with no party affiliation.[66]

Ivanka Trump, daughter and former Senior Advisor to former President Donald Trump, was seen as a potential candidate to primary Rubio for the Republican nomination.[67] However, on February 18, 2021, it was confirmed that she would not seek the nomination.[68]

Georgia

Incumbent Democrat Raphael Warnock won the 2020–2021 special election against incumbent Republican Kelly Loeffler to fill the remainder of former Sen. Johnny Isakson's term. (Isakson had resigned at the end of 2019, and Loeffler was appointed by Governor Brian Kemp following Isakson's resignation.) No candidate in the open election on November 3 received the 50% required by Georgia law to avoid a runoff, a type of election colloquially known as a "jungle primary"[69]—Warnock received just 32.9% of the vote—and so a runoff election between Warnock and Loeffler was held on January 5, 2021, which Warnock won with 51% of the vote.

Former Republican senator David Perdue, who lost his race to Democratic challenger Jon Ossoff in 2021, filed paperwork to run for this seat.[70] A week after filing the paperwork, however, Perdue announced that he would not pursue another race for the Senate.[71] Loeffler is considering running again, as is former U.S. Representative Doug Collins.

Hawaii

One-term Democrat Brian Schatz was appointed to the Senate in 2012 following the death of incumbent Daniel Inouye. He won a special election to finish Inouye's term in 2014 and won his first full term in 2016 with 73.6% of the vote.

Idaho

Four-term Republican Mike Crapo was re-elected in 2016 with 66.1% of the vote.

Illinois

One-term Democrat Tammy Duckworth was elected in 2016 with 54.9% of the vote.

Indiana

One-term Republican Todd Young was elected in 2016 with 52.1% of the vote.

Iowa

Seven-term Republican Chuck Grassley was re-elected in 2016 with 60.1% of the vote. When asked by the Iowa Capital Dispatch in February 2020 if he would be running for re-election and said:

You'll have to ask me a year and a half from now. Now if you'd asked me that six years ago, I'd have said I'm running for re-election. But now that I'm 86, I better make sure I can see myself to be 95 years old… Now the one thing I want to make sure of is, that I don't become a Senator Byrd, where, the last two years on office, I have to have a nurse with me. Or when [Strom] Thurmond left office at 100 years and three months, but the last couple of years, he needed a lot of help.

He also said that he would decide whether to run again "eight months to a year before the 2022 election".[72]

Should Grassley retire, potential Republican candidates include his grandson Speaker of the Iowa House of Representatives Pat Grassley and U.S. Representative Ashley Hinson.[73] State Senator Jim Carlin has announced candidacy regardless of whether Grassley retires or not.[22]

Potential Democratic candidates include U.S. Representative Cindy Axne, former U.S Representative Abby Finkenauer, retired Admiral and former aide to U.S. Senator Ted Kennedy Michael T. Franken, attorney Kimberly Graham, 2020 U.S. Senate nominee Theresa Greenfield, businessman and teacher Eddie Mauro, Iowa State Auditor Rob Sand, and veteran Cal Woods.[74]

Kansas

Two-term Republican Jerry Moran was re-elected in 2016 with 62.2% of the vote. He has announced that he will be seeking re-election.[23] Former U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo may challenge Moran in the primary.[75]

Kentucky

Two-term Republican Rand Paul was re-elected in 2016 with 56.3% of the vote.

As Paul has supported legislation limiting senators to two terms, he may retire.[24]

Louisiana

One-term Republican John Kennedy was elected in 2016 with 60.6% of the vote.

Louisiana governor John Bel Edwards, who will be term-limited in 2023, may run in the jungle primary.[76]

Maryland

One-term Democrat Chris Van Hollen was elected in 2016 with 60.9% of the vote. He has not announced whether or not he will seek a second term; however, he has filed papers to run again with the Federal Election Commission (FEC).[77]

Missouri

Two-term Republican Roy Blunt was re-elected in 2016 with 49.2% of the vote. He is seeking re-election.[25]

Former Governor of Missouri Eric Greitens may run in the Republican primary.[78]

Tech executive and LGBT rights activist Tim Shepard has declared he is running for the Democratic nomination.[79] Former state senator Scott Sifton has filed to run in the Democratic primary.[80][81]

Nevada

One-term Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto was elected in 2016 with 47.1% of the vote.

New Hampshire

One-term Democrat Maggie Hassan was elected in 2016 with 48% of the vote. She is running for reelection.[29]

Retired U.S. Army general Don Bolduc has declared his candidacy as a Republican, having previously run in the 2020 Republican primary in New Hampshire.[82][83]

Former Senator Kelly Ayotte,[84] who narrowly lost to Hassan in 2016, and Governor Chris Sununu[85] who was reelected in 2020 with 65.2% of the vote, have also been speculated to be potential Republican candidates.

New York

Four-term Democrat and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer was re-elected in 2016 with 70.6% of the vote. He has filed paperwork to run again. Sam Seder, the host of The Majority Report with Sam Seder, has expressed interest in challenging Schumer for the Democratic nomination. Human rights activist Khaled Salem is challenging Schumer in the primary.[86]

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Democratic Congresswoman for New York's 14th congressional district, who successfully defeated long time incumbent Democrat Joe Crowley in an upset 2018 primary campaign, has been floated as a possible primary challenger to Schumer.[87]

North Carolina

Three-term Republican Richard Burr was re-elected in 2016 with 51.0% of the vote. Burr has pledged to retire in 2022.[88]

Former U.S. Representative Mark Walker is running in the Republican primary.[89] Potential Republican candidates include U.S. Representative Ted Budd,[90] former Lieutenant Governor Dan Forest,[91] former U.S. Representative George Holding,[92] former Governor Pat McCrory,[93] North Carolina House Speaker Tim Moore,[91] and Lara Trump, daughter-in-law of former President Donald Trump.[91][94]

State senator Jeff Jackson and former state senator Erica D. Smith are running in the Democratic primary.[95][96] Potential Democratic candidates include Governor Roy Cooper,[97] North Carolina Supreme Court Associate Justice Anita Earls,[98] state representative Grier Martin,[99] U.S. Representative Deborah K. Ross,[99] and Attorney General Josh Stein.[99]

North Dakota

Two-term Republican John Hoeven was re-elected in 2016 with 78.5% of the vote. On February 5, 2021, Hoeven campaign spokesman Dan Larson has indicated Hoeven is running for re-election in 2022.[100][101]

Ohio

Two-term Republican Rob Portman was re-elected in 2016 with 58% of the vote. On January 25, 2021, he announced that he would not be running for re-election.[35]

Josh Mandel, former Ohio State Treasurer, nominee for U.S. Senate in 2012, and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2018 has announced his candidacy for the Republican nomination.[102] Former Ohio Republican Party chair Jane Timken is also running.[37]

Potential Democratic candidates include Columbus City Attorney Zach Klein,[103] U.S. Representative and 2020 presidential candidate Tim Ryan,[104][105] Franklin County Treasurer Cheryl Brooks Sullivan, Ohio House Minority Leader Emilia Sykes,[106] and Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley.[105]

Oklahoma

One-term Republican James Lankford won the 2014 special election to serve the remainder of former senator Tom Coburn's term, and Lankford won election to his first full term in 2016 with 67.7% of the vote.

Oregon

Four-term Democrat Ron Wyden was re-elected in 2016 with 56.6% of the vote. He is seeking re-election.[39]

Pennsylvania

Two-term Republican Pat Toomey was re-elected in 2016 with 48.8% of the vote. On October 5, 2020, Toomey announced that he will retire at the end of his term.[107]

Pennsylvania Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman is running in the Democratic primary,[108] as is state representative Malcolm Kenyatta. Other potential Democratic candidates include Montgomery County Commissioner Valerie Arkoosh,[107] U.S. Representatives Brendan Boyle,[107] Chrissy Houlahan,[107] Conor Lamb,[109] State Senator Sharif Street,[110][111] Toomey's 2010 opponent Joe Sestak,[112] and former State Treasurer Joe Torsella.[107]

Potential Republican candidates include State Senator Camera Bartolotta,[107] 2018 Senate candidate Jeff Bartos,[107] former U.S. Representative Ryan Costello,[107] 2018 gubernatorial candidate Paul Mango,[107] U.S. Attorney William McSwain,[107] Chester County Commissioner Michelle H. Kichline, state Representative Martina White, and current U.S. Representatives Dan Meuser,[107] Guy Reschenthaler,[107] Lloyd Smucker,[107] and Glenn Thompson.[107]

South Carolina

One-term Republican Tim Scott was appointed in 2013 and won election to his first full term in 2016 with 60.6% of the vote. He said that he plans to run, but has stated that if he does indeed decide to run for reelection in 2022, it would be his last time.[113]

South Dakota

Three-term Republican and Senate Minority Whip John Thune was re-elected in 2016 with 71.8% of the vote.

Utah

Two-term Republican Mike Lee was re-elected in 2016 with 68.2% of the vote.

As Lee has supported legislation limiting senators to two terms, he may retire.[45]

Vermont

The most senior senator, eight-term Democrat and President Pro Tempore Patrick Leahy was re-elected in 2016 with 61.3% of the vote. He has not indicated whether or not he will seek a ninth term.

Potential Republican candidates include Governor Phil Scott.[114]

Washington

Five-term Democrat Patty Murray was re-elected in 2016 with 59.0% of the vote. She indicated to The Seattle Times that she is running for re-election.[46]

Wisconsin

Two-term Republican Ron Johnson was re-elected in 2016 with 50.2% of the vote. Johnson had pledged to retire in 2022,[115] but in 2019, he said he did not know if he would in fact seek a third term or not and would not rule anything out.[47]

Kenosha County Sheriff David Beth (R) has expressed an interest in running for the Senate.[116] Former Governor Scott Walker has said that he will not run.[117]

On October 23, 2020, Tom Nelson, current County Executive of Outagamie filed as a Democrat.[49]

Other possible races

On June 26, 2020, the United States House of Representatives voted 232–180 to grant statehood to the District of Columbia,[118] but the bill, H.R. 51, failed in the Senate when the 116th Congress ended. On January 3, 2021, D.C. Delegate Eleanor Holmes Norton reintroduced the bill at the start of the 117th Congress with a record 202 co-sponsors,[119] and on January 27, Senator Tom Carper of Delaware introduced a companion bill, S. 51, into the Senate with a record 38 co-sponsors.[120] As the Democratic Party retained its control of the House and narrowly regained that of the Senate after the 2020 elections, it is possible that the 117th Congress (2021–2023) will grant statehood to the District of Columbia. This would add two seats to the Senate, both of which would probably be filled in special elections during the 2022 election cycle. The addition of these two seats, extremely likely to be won by Democrats,[121] would have a significant effect on the nationwide partisan battle for control of the Senate. However, the D.C. statehood bill would have to overcome a filibuster, which is unlikely to pass. Some Democrats such as Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema have indicated that they will not support ending the legislative filibuster.

In addition, a referendum on Puerto Rico's status was held on November 3, 2020. A majority (52.52%) of voters chose statehood.[122] It is also plausible that the 117th Congress will grant statehood to Puerto Rico. The 2020 platforms of both the Democratic[123] and Republican parties[124] (identical to the 2016 Republican Party platform as the party's National Committee readopted it by a resolution on August 22, 2020) express support for Puerto Rico's right to determine the future of its status. Both seats would likely be filled also in special elections during the 2022 election cycle. Unlike the District of Columbia, the partisan lean of Puerto Rico is somewhat unclear. While Latino Americans of Puerto Rican descent tend to vote for Democrats, many argue that Puerto Rico's heavily Catholic population[125] will result in Puerto Rico agreeing with the Republican Party on many social issues like abortion, religion in schools, and same-sex marriage.[126] In addition, Puerto Rico's elected non-voting member of the House of Representatives, Jenniffer González, has served leadership positions in the Republican Party.

The incumbent shadow senators from D.C. and Puerto Rico may possibly run in these races. The D.C. shadow senators are Democrats Mike Brown and Paul Strauss. Their Puerto Rican counterparts are New Progressive Republican Zoraida Fonalledas and Democrat Carlos Romero Barceló.

Notes

  1. ^ Democrats control the Senate since Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris has the ability to break ties.
  2. ^ a b The two independent senators, Bernie Sanders and Angus King, have caucused with the Democratic Party since joining the Senate.
  3. ^ The last elections for this group of senators were in 2016, except for those elected in a special election or who were appointed after the resignation or passing of a sitting senator, as noted.
  4. ^ Republican John McCain won with 53.7% of the vote in 2016 but died on August 25, 2018.
  5. ^ Democrat Kamala Harris won with 61.6% of the vote against another Democrat in 2016 but resigned on January 18, 2021 to become Vice President of the United States.
  6. ^ Republican Johnny Isakson won with 54.8% of the vote in 2016 but resigned on December 31, 2019.
  7. ^ Democratic total includes 2 Independents who caucus with the Democrats
  8. ^ Major candidates include those who have previously held office and/or those who are the subject of media attention.
  9. ^ Those who have filed paperwork but have not declared their candidacy are not listed here.

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