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2020 United States presidential election in Wisconsin

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

2020 United States presidential election in Wisconsin

← 2016 November 3, 2020 2024 →
Turnout72.3% Increase
 
Joe Biden presidential portrait (cropped).jpg
Donald Trump official portrait (cropped).jpg
Nominee Joe Biden Donald Trump
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Delaware Florida
Running mate Kamala Harris Mike Pence
Electoral vote 10 0
Popular vote 1,630,866 1,610,184
Percentage 49.45% 48.82%

Wisconsin Presidential Election Results 2020.svg
County results

President before election

Donald Trump
Republican

Elected President

Joe Biden
Democratic

The 2020 United States presidential election in Wisconsin was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[1] Wisconsin voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Wisconsin has 10 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]

The 2020 Democratic National Convention was scheduled to be held at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, but it was moved to the nearby Wisconsin Center due to the COVID-19 pandemic.[3][4]

Polls of Wisconsin in the lead-up to election day showed a clear Biden lead, averaging in the high single digits. Prior to polling day, 14 out of the 15 news organizations considered that the state was leaning towards Biden. Biden ultimately won Wisconsin by a narrow 0.63% margin over Trump, who had won it in 2016 by 0.77% against Hillary Clinton; however, Biden carried the state with a slightly larger margin than Al Gore or John Kerry did in either 2000 or 2004, respectively. Once again, Trump massively outperformed his polling average, which had Biden up 8.4 points in the state, but it was not enough to win it. Trump held his own in counties in northern Wisconsin and also in the WOW counties.[5] However, Biden won the highest vote share for a Democrat in Waukesha County, at 38.8%, since Jimmy Carter in 1976.[6] Trump carried Brown County, which is Republican-leaning but competitive, though Biden won the city of Green Bay and improved on Clinton's margin in the county at large by about 3.7 points.[7] Biden won back Sauk County, a county in the driftless region of southwestern Wisconsin; Biden also flipped Door County, which has voted for the winning candidate in each election since 1980, save for 1992.

On November 18, Trump announced that he would request a recount in Milwaukee County and Dane County.[8][9] On November 29, both counties had re-affirmed Biden's victory, giving him a net gain of 87 votes over Trump.[10]

Wisconsin is tied for the longest perfect streak with Michigan and Pennsylvania, neither of which have backed the losing candidate since after 2004, when all three backed Democratic nominee John Kerry, but incumbent President George W. Bush was re-elected.

Primary elections

Effects of the COVID-19 pandemic

Since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, several states delayed their scheduled primaries and extended the vote-by-mail period. Concerns were raised by health officials, poll workers, and voters that in-person voting at the height of the pandemic would be unsafe for vulnerable individuals.[11] Governor Tony Evers (D) signed an executive order for all-mail-in election, but the order was rejected by the Republican-controlled Wisconsin Legislature.[12]

On April 2, although U.S. District Judge William M. Conley refused to postpone the election, he extended the deadline for absentee voting to April 13 (ordering clerks not to release any election data before that date).[13][14] However, on April 6, the Supreme Court of the United States overturned Conley's decision, meaning that all absentee ballots must still be postmarked by "election day, Tuesday, April 7" even though it will still be acceptable for the ballots to be received by the clerks as late as April 13.[15][16] The Supreme Court of the United States "did not alter the provision in Conley's amended order which prohibits the reporting of results until April 13".[17]

Governor Evers then called a special session of the legislature to postpone in-person voting, but the session ended within minutes without action, forcing the primary to go on as planned.[18]

Despite having previously expressed the view that he would violate the law by doing so,[19] on April 6, Evers issued an executive order which, if enforced, would have postponed the April 7 elections until the tentative date of June 9.[20][21] Republican leaders immediately announced that they would challenge the order in the Wisconsin Supreme Court.[20] The Wisconsin Supreme Court ruled that Evers did not have the authority to postpone the elections, thus meaning that Evers' executive order was nullified, and that the elections would be held as scheduled on April 7.[22]

This was appealed to a federal court who sided with the Governor, and that was appealed to the US Supreme Court, which on a 5–4 vote, upheld the State court's ruling.[23]

Voting was somewhat chaotic, with people waiting in the rain for hours in some cases in masks and social distancing.[24] However, by the time the election concluded, Milwaukee Election Commissioner Neil Albrecht stated that despite some of the problems, the in-person voting ran smoothly.[25]

Democratic primary

2020 Wisconsin Democratic presidential primary[26][27]
Candidate Votes[28] % Delegates[29]
Joe Biden 581,463 62.86% 56
Bernie Sanders 293,441 31.72% 28
Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn) 14,060 1.52%
Michael Bloomberg (withdrawn) 8,846 0.96%
Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn) 6,079 0.66%
Tulsi Gabbard (withdrawn) 5,565 0.60%
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn) 4,946 0.53%
Andrew Yang (withdrawn) 3,349 0.36%
Tom Steyer (withdrawn) 836 0.09%
John Delaney (withdrawn) 529 0.06%
Michael Bennet (withdrawn) 475 0.05%
Deval Patrick (withdrawn) 311 0.03%
Uncommitted 3,590 0.39%
Scattering 1,575 0.17%
Total 925,065 100% 84

100% precincts reporting[30]

Republican primary

Incumbent President Donald Trump ran unopposed in the Republican primary, and thus received all of Wisconsin's 52 delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention.[31]

2020 Wisconsin Republican primary
Candidate Votes % Delegates
Donald Trump 616,780 97.87% 52
Adam Nicholas Paul (write-in) 246 0.04%
Uninstructed 11,246 1.78%
Scattering 1,924 0.31%
Total 630,196 100% 52

General election

Final predictions

Source Ranking
The Cook Political Report[32] Lean D (flip)
Inside Elections[33] Lean D (flip)
Sabato's Crystal Ball[34] Lean D (flip)
Politico[35] Lean D (flip)
RCP[36] Tossup
Niskanen[37] Likely D (flip)
CNN[38] Lean D (flip)
The Economist[39] Likely D (flip)
CBS News[40] Lean D (flip)
270towin[41] Lean D (flip)
ABC News[42] Lean D (flip)
NPR[43] Lean D (flip)
NBC News[44] Lean D (flip)
538[45] Likely D (flip)

Polling

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Donald
Trump

Republican
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Other/
Undecided
[a]
Margin
270 to Win November 1–2 2020 November 3, 2020 42.8% 52.0% 5.2% Biden +9.2
Real Clear Politics October 21 – November 1, 2020 November 3, 2020 44.3% 51.0% 4.7% Biden +6.7
FiveThirtyEight until November 2, 2020 November 3, 2020 43.7% 52.1% 4.2% Biden +8.4
Average 43.6% 51.7% 4.7% Biden +8.1

2020 polls

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump

Republican
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Jo
Jorgensen

Libertarian
Howie
Hawkins

Green
Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 20 – Nov 2 2,814 (LV) ± 2.5% 44%[c] 54% - -
Research Co. Oct 31 – Nov 1 450 (LV) ± 4.6% 45% 54% - - 1%[d] 7%
Change Research/CNBC Oct 29 – Nov 1 553 (LV) ± 4.17% 45% 53% 2% - 0%
Civiqs/Daily Kos Oct 29 – Nov 1 789 (LV) ± 3.6% 47% 51% - - 1%[e] 0%
Swayable Oct 27 – Nov 1 253 (LV) ± 8.2% 45% 55% 1% -
Ipsos/Reuters Oct 27 – Nov 1 696 (LV) ± 4.2% 43%[f] 53% 2% 0% 2%[g]
43%[h] 53% - - 2%[i] 2%
45%[j] 53% - - 2%[k]
AtlasIntel Oct 30–31 781 (LV) ± 3% 49% 51% - - 1%
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc./Center for American Greatness[A] Oct 29–31 450 (LV) ± 4.6% 46% 49% - - 2%[l] 1%
Morning Consult Oct 22–31 1,002 (LV) ± 3% 41% 54% - -
Emerson College Oct 29–30 751 (LV) ± 3.1% 45%[m] 52% - - 2%[n]
AtlasIntel Oct 29–30 672 (LV) ± 4% 50% 49% - - 2%
CNN/SSRS Oct 29–30 873 (LV) ± 3.9% 44% 52% 3% - 0%[o] 2%
Siena College/NYT Upshot Oct 26–30 1,253 (LV) ± 3.2% 41% 52% 2% - 1%[p] 4%[q]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Oct 26–29 800 (LV) 41% 53% 2% - 1% 2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 1–28 4,569 (LV) ± 2.0% 43% 55% - -
Swayable Oct 23–26 313 (LV) ± 7.2% 45% 54% 1% -
Ipsos/Reuters Oct 20–26 664 (LV) ± 4.3% 44%[f] 53% 2% 1% 3%[r]
44%[s] 53% - - 2%[t] 2%
Trafalgar Group Oct 24–25 1,082 (LV) ± 2.89% 47% 47% 3% - 1%[u] 1%
Marquette Law School Oct 21–25 749 (LV) ± 4.4% 43% 48% 2% - 7%[v] 0%
ABC/Washington Post Oct 20–25 809 (LV) ± 4% 40% 57% 2% - 1%[w] 1%
Gravis Marketing Oct 23 677 (LV) ± 3.8% 43% 54% - - 3%
YouGov/University of Wisconsin-Madison Oct 13–21 647 (LV) ± 4.07% 44% 53% - - 3%[x]
Fox News Oct 17–20 1,037 (LV) ± 3% 44% 49% 2% - 1%[y] 4%
RMG Research/PoliticalIQ Oct 14–20 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 44%[f] 50% - - 3%[z] 4%
42%[aa] 52% - - 3%[ab] 4%
45%[ac] 48% - - 3%[ad] 4%
Morning Consult Oct 11–20 1,038 (LV) ± 3% 42% 54% - -
Susquehanna Polling and Research Inc./Center for American Greatness[A] Oct 16–19 500 (LV) ± 4.3% 45% 45% 5% - 3%[ae] 3%
Change Research/CNBC Oct 16–19 447 (LV)[af] 44% 52% - -
Latino Decisions/DFER[B] Oct 14–19 400 (LV) ± 5% 45% 50% - - 4%
Ipsos/Reuters Oct 13–19 663 (LV) ± 4.3% 45%[f] 51% 2% 0% 3%[ag]
43%[ah] 51% - - 3%[ai] 3%
Trafalgar Group Oct 14–16 1,051 (LV) ± 2.94% 46% 48% 2% - 1% 3%
YouGov/CBS Oct 13–16 1,112 (LV) ± 3.5% 45% 50% - - 3%[aj] 2%
Trafalgar Group/Restoration PAC[C] Oct 11–13 1,043 (LV) ± 2.95% 45% 47% 3% 2%[ak] 3%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Oct 10–13 691 (LV) 40%[af] 53% 2% 0%
David Binder Research/Focus on Rural America Oct 10–13 200 (LV) 43% 53% - -
Civiqs/Rust Belt Rising[D] Oct 8–11 560 (LV) ± 4.4% 45% 53% - - 2%[al] 1%
Siena College/NYT Upshot Oct 8–11 789 (LV) ± 4% 41% 51% 3% - 0%[am] 5%[an]
Ipsos/Reuters Oct 6–11 577 (LV) ± 4.7% 45%[f] 51% 2% 0% 1%[ao]
44%[ap] 51% - - 3%[aq] 2%
Morning Consult Oct 2–11 1,067 (LV) ± 3% 44% 51% - -
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Oct 9–10 613 (LV) 45%[af] 49% 2% -
Baldwin Wallace University Sep 30 – Oct 8 883 (LV) ± 3.4% 43% 49% 2% 0% 1%[ar] 6%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Oct 4–7 688 (LV) ± 3.74% 41% 51% 1% - 1%[as] 6%
Ipsos/Reuters Sep 29 – Oct 5 601 (LV) ± 4.6% 44% 50% - - 2%[at] 4%
Change Research/CNBC Oct 2–4 442 (LV) 44% 51% - -
Marquette Law School[1] Sep 30 – Oct 4 805 (RV) 41% 46% 5% - 7%[au] 2%
700 (LV) 42% 47% 4% - 2%[av] 1%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Sep 1–30 3,806 (LV) 44% 53% - - 2%
Trafalgar Group/Restoration PAC[C] Sep 25–28 1,084 (LV) ± 2.89% 44% 47% 3% - 2%[aw] 3%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Sep 23–27 663 (LV) ± 3.81% 43% 48% 2% - 0%[ax] 7%
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc./Center for American Greatness[A] Sep 23–26 500 (LV) ± 4.3% 46% 48% - -
Trafalgar Group (R) Sep 22–24 1,189 (LV) ± 2.76% 45% 48% 3% - 2%[ay] 3%
Marist College/NBC Sep 20–24 727 (LV) ± 4.6% 44% 54% - - 1% 1%
Baldwin Wallace University Sep 9–22 863 (LV) ± 3.7% 41% 50% 2% 0% 1%[az] 6%
YouGov/UW-Madison Elections Research
Center/Wisconsin State Journal
Sep 10–21 664 (LV) 46% 50% - -
Change Research/CNBC Sep 18–20 571 (LV) 42% 51% - -
Hart Research Associates/Human Rights Campaign[E] Sep 17–19 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 44% 51% - -
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Sep 12–16 636 (LV) ± 3.89% 41% 47% 1% 1% 1%[ba] 10%
Ipsos/Reuters Sep 11–16 609 (LV) 43% 48% - - 2%[bb] 6%
Morning Consult Sep 7–16 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 42%[bc] 51% - -
Civiqs/Rust Belt Rising[D] Sep 11–15 549 (RV) ± 3.9% 44%[af] 51% - - 2%[bd] 2%
Morning Consult Sep 6–15 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 42% 51% - -
CNN/SSRS Sep 9–13 816 (LV) ± 4.2% 42% 52% 3% - 1%[be] 1%
ABC/Washington Post Sep 8–13 605 (LV) ± 4.5% 46% 52% - - 1%[bf] 1%
Siena College/NYT Upshot Sep 8–10 760 (LV) ± 4.7% 43% 48% 2% 0% 2%[bg] 6%[bh]
Emerson College Sep 6–8 823 (LV) ± 3.4% 45%[bi] 52% - - 4%[bj]
Benenson Strategy Group/GS Group/AARP Aug 28 – Sep 8 1,200 (LV) ± 2.8% 45% 50% - - 1%[bk] 4%
Change Research/CNBC Sep 4–6 501 (LV) 44% 50% - - 6%[bl]
Morning Consult Aug 27 – Sep 5 763 (LV) ± 3.5% 44% 50% - -
YouGov/CBS Sep 2–4 978 (LV) ± 3.7% 44% 50% - - 2%[bm] 4%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Aug 30 – Sep 4 670 (LV) ± 3.78% 41% 50% 2% 0% 0%[bn] 6%
Marquette Law School Aug 30 – Sep 3 688 (LV) 44% 48% 4% - 2%[bo] 2%
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports Sep 1–2 1,000 (LV) ± 3% 43% 51% - - 3%[bp] 2%
Fox News Aug 29 – Sep 1 801 (LV) ± 3.5% 42% 50% 2% 1%[bq] 5%
853 (RV) ± 3% 41% 49% 2% 2%[br] 5%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Aug 1–31 1,913 (LV) 49% 48% - - 2%
Opinium/The Guardian[2] Aug 21–28 700 (LV) 40% 53% - - 1% 5%
Morning Consult Aug 17–26 797 (LV) ± 3.5% 42% 52% - -
Change Research/CNBC Aug 21–23 925 (LV) 44% 49% - -
Trafalgar Group Aug 14–23 1,011 (LV) ± 2.99% 46% 45% 4% - 2%[bs] 3%
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC[C] Aug 17–20 600 (LV) 44% 52% - - 4%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies Aug 13–17 672 (LV) ± 3.9% 40% 49% 1% 1% 2%[bt] 7%
Civiqs/Rust Belt Rising[D] Aug 13–17 753 (RV) 45% 51% - - 2%[bu] 2%
Morning Consult Aug 7–16 788 (LV) ± 3.5% 43%[bv] 49% - - 2%[bw] 5%
Morning Consult Aug 4–13 797 (LV) ± 3.5% 43% 50% - -
Change Research/CNBC Aug 6–9 384 (LV) 43% 47% - -
Marquette Law School Aug 4–9 694 (LV) ± 3.8% 46% 50% - - 3%[bx] 1%
YouGov/CBS Aug 4–7 994 (LV) ± 3.8% 42% 48% - - 3%[by] 7%
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports/American Greatness PAC[A] Aug 5–6 750 (LV) 43% 55% - - 1% 1%
YouGov/University of Wisconsin-Madison Jul 27 – Aug 6 734 (RV) ± 4.9% 43% 49% - - 4%[bz] 4%
OnMessage Inc./Heritage Action[F] Aug 2–4 400 (LV) ± 4.7% 47% 47% - - 6%
Morning Consult Jul 25 – Aug 3 797 (LV) ± 3.5% 41% 51% - -
David Binder Research Jul 30–31 200 (LV) 42% 53% - -
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jul 1–31 2,173 (LV) 48% 50% - - 2%
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC[C] Jul 22–27 600 (LV) 38% 52% - - 10%
Change Research/CNBC[3] Jul 24–26 392 (LV) 43% 48% - -
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Jul 19–24 742 (LV) 35% 45% 2% 0% 3%[ca] 15%
Morning Consult Jul 15–24 797 (LV) ± 3.5% 44% 49% - -
Gravis Marketing Jul 22 796 (RV) ± 3.5% 42% 50% - - 7%
Global Strategy Group (D) Jul 11–17 600 (V) ± 4.0% 42% 51% - - 2%[cb] 4%[cc]
Spry Strategies/American Principles Project[G] Jul 11–16 700 (LV) ± 3.7% 45% 46% - - 8%
Morning Consult Jul 5–14 797 (LV) ± 3.5% 41% 50% - -
Change Research/CNBC Jul 10–12 601 (LV) 42% 48% - -
Morning Consult Jun 25 – Jul 4 797 (LV) ± 3.5% 44% 50% - -
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jun 8–30 813 (LV) 47% 51% - - 2%
Change Research/CNBC Jun 26–28 502 (LV)[af] 43% 51% - -
Trafalgar Group Jun 25–26 1,021 (LV) ± 3.0% 46% 45% - - 8%[cd] 2%
Ogden & Fry Jun 20–24 825 (LV) ± 3.48% 44% 45% - - 10%
Morning Consult Jun 15–24 797 (LV) ± 3.5% 44% 50% - -
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Jun 14–19 846 (LV) ± 3.37% 36% 45% 1% 1% 2%[ce] 15%
Marquette Law School Jun 14–18 686 (LV) 44% 52% - - 3%[cf] 1%
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) Jun 12–16 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 39% 55% - - 6%
NYT Upshot/Siena College Jun 8–15 655 (RV) ± 4.3% 38% 49% - - 5%[cg] 8%
Morning Consult Jun 5–14 797 (LV) ± 3.5% 44% 49% - -
Change Research/CNBC Jun 12–14 231 (LV)[af] 44% 48% - - 5%[ch]
Morning Consult May 26 – Jun 4 797 (LV) ± 3.5% 44% 48% - -
Fox News May 30 – Jun 2 801 (RV) ± 3.5% 40% 49% - - 6%[ci] 5%
Change Research/CNBC May 29–31 382 (LV)[af] 45% 45% - - 5% 6%
Morning Consult May 16–25 797 (LV) ± 3.5% 44% 48% - -
Morning Consult May 6–15 797 (LV) ± 3.5% 42% 49% - -
Redfield & Wilton Strategies May 10–14 875 (LV) ± 3.3% 38% 48% - - 3%[cj] 10%
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) May 6–8 600 (LV) ± 3% 42% 51% - - 8%
Marquette Law School May 3–7 650 (LV) 45% 49% - - 4%[ck] 2%
Morning Consult Apr 26 – May 5 797 (LV) ± 3.5% 43% 49% - -
Public Policy Polling[H] Apr 20–21 1,415 (RV) 45% 50% - - 4%
Ipsos Apr 15–20 645 (RV) ± 5.0% 40% 43% - -
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) Apr 13–15 600 (RV) ± 3.0% 45% 50% - - 4%
Hart Research/CAP Action[I] Apr 6–8 303 (RV) 47% 48% - - 2% 3%
Marquette Law School Mar 24–29 813 (RV) 45% 48% - - 4%[cl] 3%
Baldwin Wallace University Great Lakes Mar 17–25 822 (RV) ± 3.8% 45% 45% - - 10%
Change Research Mar 21–23 510 (LV) 49% 45% - 6%
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) Mar 17–19 600 (RV) 49% 45% - -
Public Policy Polling Mar 10–11 1,727 (RV) 45% 48% - - 6%
YouGov/Yahoo News Mar 6–8 459 (RV) 42% 44% - - 6%[cm] 7%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Mar 5–7 502 (LV) ± 4.7% 45% 43% - -
Marquette Law School Feb 19–23 1,000 (RV) 46% 46% - - 5%[cn] 3%
YouGov Feb 11–20 936 (RV) ± 4.0% 43% 45% - -
Quinnipiac University Feb 12–18 823 (RV) ± 3.4% 49% 42% - - 4%[co] 4%
Expedition Strategies/Progressive Policies Institute Feb 6–18 500 (RV) 44% 42% - - 13%
Tarrance Group/Wisconsin Manufacturers and Commerce Jan 14–16 500 (LV) ± 4.5% 46% 47% - - 6%
Marquette Law School[4][5] Jan 8–12 701 (LV) 47% 48% - - 4%[cp] 2%
Fox News Jan 5–8 1,504 (RV) ± 2.5% 41% 46% - - 8%[cq] 4%

2019 polls

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump

Republican
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Other Undecided
Marquette Law School[6] Dec 3–8 652 (LV) 47% 49% 2%[cr] 1%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Dec 3–5 610 (LV) ± 4.1% 48% 39% 8%[cs] 5%[ct]
Marquette Law School[7][8] Nov 13–17 685 (LV) 48% 45% 5%[cu] 2%
NYT Upshot/Siena College Oct 13–26 651 (LV) ± 4.4% 44% 46%
Marquette Law School[9][10] Oct 13–17 657 (LV) 44% 51% 3%[cv] 1%
Fox News Sep 29 – Oct 2 1,512 (RV) ± 2.5% 39% 48% 5% 6%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Sep 7–9 534 (LV) ± 4.0% 42% 44% 14%
Marquette Law School[11] Aug 25–29 672 (LV) 44% 51% 3%[cw] 2%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Jun 11–13 535 (LV) ± 4.3% 40% 46% 14%
WPA Intelligence Apr 27–30 200 (LV) ± 6.9% 46% 42% 9%
Zogby Analytics Apr 15–18 802 (LV) ± 3.5% 40% 50% 11%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Mar 19–21 616 (LV) ± 4.1% 40% 53% 5%
Emerson College Mar 15–17 775 (RV) ± 3.5% 46% 54%


Former candidates and hypothetical polling

Former candidates

Donald Trump vs. Michael Bloomberg

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Michael
Bloomberg (D)
Other Undecided
Marquette Law School Feb 19–23, 2020 1,000 (RV) 45% 44% 5%[cx] 5%
Quinnipiac University Feb 12–18, 2020 823 (RV) ± 3.4% 49% 41% 5%[cy] 5%
Expedition Strategies/Progressive Policies Institute Feb 6–18, 2020 500 (RV) 44% 43% 12%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Dec 3–5, 2019 610 (LV) ± 4.1% 49% 37% 10%[cz] 4%[da]

Donald Trump vs. Cory Booker

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Cory
Booker (D)
Other Undecided
Marquette Law School[12] Dec 3–8, 2019 652 (LV) 47% 45% 4%[db] 4%
Marquette Law School[13][14] Nov 13–17, 2019 685 (LV) 45% 45% 5%[dc] 4%

Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Pete
Buttigieg (D)
Other Undecided
Marquette Law School Feb 19–23, 2020 1,000 (RV) 45% 45% 5%[dd] 5%
YouGov Feb 11–20, 2020 936 (RV) ± 4.0% 43% 45%
Quinnipiac University Feb 12–18, 2020 823 (RV) ± 3.4% 49% 41% 5%[de] 5%
Expedition Strategies/Progressive Policies Institute Feb 6–18, 2020 500 (RV) 43% 44% 13%
Marquette Law School[15][16] Jan 8–12, 2020 701 (LV) 47% 45% 5%[df] 4%
Fox News Jan 5–8, 2020 1,504 (RV) ± 2.5% 41% 42% 10[dg] 7%
Marquette Law School[17] Dec 3–8, 2019 652 (LV) 47% 44% 4%[dh] 4%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Dec 3–5, 2019 610 (LV) ± 4.1% 49% 38% 8%[di] 5%[dj]
Marquette Law School[18][19] Nov 13–17, 2019 685 (LV) 48% 40% 7%[dk] 6%
Marquette Law School[20][21] Oct 13–17, 2019 657 (LV) 44% 46% 5%[dl] 4%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Jun 11–13, 2019 535 (LV) ± 4.3% 41% 39% 20%
Zogby Analytics Apr 15–18, 2019 802 (LV) ± 3.5% 41% 44% 16%

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Kamala
Harris (D)
Other Undecided
Marquette Law School[22] Aug 25–29, 2019 672 (LV) 46% 46% 5%[dm] 4%
Zogby Analytics Apr 15–18, 2019 802 (LV) ± 3.5% 42% 43% 14%
Emerson College Mar 15–17, 2019 775 (RV) ± 3.5% 50% 50%

Donald Trump vs. Amy Klobuchar

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Amy
Klobuchar (D)
Other Undecided
Marquette Law School Feb 19–23, 2020 1,000 (RV) 46% 46% 4%[dn] 4%
YouGov Feb 11–20, 2020 936 (RV) ± 4.0% 43% 44%
Quinnipiac University Feb 12–18, 2020 823 (RV) ± 3.4% 50% 39% 5%[do] 6%
Marquette Law School[23][24] Nov 13–17, 2019 685 (LV) 53% 36% 6%[dp] 4%
Emerson College Mar 15–17, 2019 775 (RV) ± 3.5% 50% 50%

Donald Trump vs. Beto O'Rourke

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Beto
O'Rourke (D)
Other Undecided
Zogby Analytics Apr 15–18, 2019 802 (LV) ± 3.5% 41% 44% 15%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Mar 19–21, 2019 616 (LV) ± 4.1% 42% 45% 9%
Emerson College Mar 15–17, 2019 775 (RV) ± 3.5% 49% 51%

Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Bernie
Sanders (D)
Other Undecided
Marquette Law School Mar 24–29, 2020 813 (RV) 47% 45% 6%[dq] 2%
Baldwin Wallace University Great Lakes Mar 17–25, 2020 822 (RV) ± 3.8% 46% 42% 12%
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) Mar 17–19, 2020 600 (RV) 50% 43%
Public Policy Polling Mar 10–11, 2020 1,727 (V) 46% 48% 7%
YouGov/Yahoo News Mar 6–8, 2020 459 (RV) 40% 46% 9%[dr] 5%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Mar 5–7, 2020 502 (LV) ± 4.7% 48% 42%
Marquette Law School Feb 19–23, 2020 1,000 (RV) 46% 48% 3%[ds] 3%
YouGov Feb 11–20, 2020 936 (RV) ± 4.0% 44% 46%
Quinnipiac University Feb 12–18, 2020 823 (RV) ± 3.4% 50% 43% 4%[dt] 4%
Expedition Strategies/Progressive Policies Institute Feb 6–18, 2020 500 (RV) 46% 45% 9%
Tarrance Group/Wisconsin Manufacturers and Commerce Jan 14–16, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.5% 47% 47% 7%
Marquette Law School[25][26] Jan 8–12, 2020 701 (LV) 47% 47% 3%[du] 1%
Fox News Jan 5–8, 2020 1,504 (RV) ± 2.5% 42% 46% 8%[dv] 4%
Marquette Law School[27] Dec 3–8, 2019 652 (LV) 48% 46% 4%[dw] 1%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Dec 3–5, 2019 610 (LV) ± 4.1% 51% 38% 7%[dx] 4%[dy]
Marquette Law School[28][29] Nov 13–17, 2019 685 (LV) 49% 45% 5%[dz] 1%
NYT Upshot/Siena College Oct 13–26, 2019 651 (LV) ± 4.4% 46% 47%
Marquette Law School[30][31] Oct 13–17, 2019 657 (LV) 45% 48% 4%[ea] 2%
Fox News Sep 29 – Oct 2, 2019 1,512 (RV) ± 2.5% 40% 45% 5% 6%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Sep 7–9, 2019 534 (LV) ± 4.0% 43% 49% 8%
Marquette Law School[32] Aug 25–29, 2019 672 (LV) 46% 48% 4%[eb] 1%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Jun 11–13, 2019 535 (LV) ± 4.3% 40% 47% 13%
Zogby Analytics Apr 15–18, 2019 802 (LV) ± 3.5% 42% 49% 9%
Tulchin Research (D)[J] Apr 14–18, 2019 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 42% 52%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Mar 19–21, 2019 616 (LV) ± 4.1% 41% 48% 7%
Emerson College Mar 15–17, 2019 775 (RV) ± 3.5% 48% 52%

Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Elizabeth
Warren (D)
Other Undecided
Marquette Law School Feb 19–23, 2020 1,000 (RV) 47% 44% 4%[ec] 4%
YouGov Feb 11–20, 2020 936 (RV) ± 4.0% 44% 46%
Quinnipiac University Feb 12–18, 2020 823 (RV) ± 3.4% 51% 41% 4%[ed] 4%
Marquette Law School[33][34] Jan 8–12, 2020 701 (LV) 49% 45% 5%[ee] 2%
Fox News Jan 5–8, 2020 1,504 (RV) ± 2.5% 41% 44% 9%[ef] 5%
Marquette Law School[35] Dec 3–8, 2019 652 (LV) 48% 46% 5%[eg] 2%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Dec 3–5, 2019 610 (LV) ± 4.1% 50% 37% 8%[eh] 5%[ei]
Marquette Law School[36][37] Nov 13–17, 2019 685 (LV) 50% 43% 4%[ej] 2%
NYT Upshot/Siena College Oct 13–26, 2019 651 (LV) ± 4.4% 47% 45%
Marquette Law School[38][39] Oct 13–17, 2019 657 (LV) 45% 50% 3%[ek] 1%
Fox News Sep 29 – Oct 2, 2019 1,512 (RV) ± 2.5% 41% 45% 5% 7%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Sep 7–9, 2019 534 (LV) ± 4.0% 42% 43% 15%
Marquette Law School[40] Aug 25–29, 2019 672 (LV) 46% 48% 4%[el] 3%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Jun 11–13, 2019 535 (LV) ± 4.3% 41% 41% 18%
Zogby Analytics Apr 15–18, 2019 802 (LV) ± 3.5% 41% 47% 12%
Emerson College Mar 15–17, 2019 775 (RV) ± 3.5% 48% 52%
Zogby Analytics Aug 17–23, 2017 603 (LV) ± 4.0% 37% 48% 15%
Hypothetical polling

with Donald Trump, Joe Biden, and Howard Schultz

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Joe
Biden (D)
Howard
Schultz (I)
Undecided
Emerson College Mar 15–17, 2019 775 (RV) ± 3.5% 44% 51% 4%

with Donald Trump, Bernie Sanders, and Howard Schultz

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Bernie
Sanders (D)
Howard
Schultz (I)
Undecided
Emerson College Mar 15–17, 2019 775 (RV) ± 3.5% 46% 48% 5%

with Donald Trump and generic Democrat

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Generic
Democrat
Other Undecided
Baldwin Wallace University/Oakland University/Ohio Northern University Mar 17–25, 2020 997 (RV) ± 3.7% 46.8%[em] 50.4% 2.8%[en]
Expedition Strategies/Progressive Policies Institute Feb 6–18, 2020 500 (RV) 41% 49% 11%
Baldwin Wallace University/Oakland University/Ohio Northern University Jan 8–20, 2020 1,038 (RV) ± 3.3% 36.7%[eo] 51.2% 12%
KFF/Cook Political Report Sep 23 – Oct 15, 2019 745 (RV) ± 4% 28% 41% 21%
Change Research/Crooked Media Aug 9–11, 2019 1,966 (V) ± 2.2% 45% 46% 3%[ep] 6%
Public Policy Polling (D)[K] Apr 23–24, 2019 762 (V) ± 3.6% 44% 53% 4%

with Donald Trump and generic Opponent

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Generic
Opponent
Other Undecided
Marquette University Released Apr 7, 2019 800 (RV) 42% 57%[eq] 0%[er] 4%
Emerson College Mar 15–17, 2019 775 (RV) ± 3.5% 45% 55%[es]
Marquette University Jan 16–20, 2019 800 (RV) 39% 57%[et] 0%[eu] 4%

Green Party and Kanye West ballot access lawsuits

In August 2020, the bipartisan Wisconsin Elections Commission voted to keep rapper Kanye West, an independent presidential candidate, off of the 2020 general election ballot in a 5-1 decision on the basis that West's application arrived too late—arriving in person seconds after the deadline.[46]

The Commission was split along party lines in a 3-3 decision to keep Howie Hawkins, the Green Party presidential candidate off of the 2020 general election ballot.[47] Hawkins gathered 3,623 valid signatures; however, forms with 1,834 signatures had a different address for Hawkins' running mate Angela Walker. The partisan board voted only to certify the 1,789, placing Hawkins/Walker below the 2,000 signatures required to be on the ballot.[48]

Walker subsequently filed a legal petition to be included on the ballot. On September 10, 2020, the Wisconsin Supreme Court ruled that that election officials had to wait to mail absentee ballots until the court decided whether or not to include the Green Party on the ballot. Some municipal election commissions had already mailed out absentee ballots while others were concerned that they would miss the September 17 deadline by which Wisconsin state law required absentee ballots to mailed out to those who requested them.[49] On September 14, 2020, the court ruled that the ballots would remain as-is without Hawkins or West on the ballot stating, "given their delay in asserting their rights, we would be unable to provide meaningful relief without completely upsetting the election."[50]

Results

2020 United States presidential election in Wisconsin[51][52]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Joe Biden
Kamala Harris
1,630,866 49.45% +3.00%
Republican Donald Trump
Mike Pence
1,610,184 48.82% +1.60%
Libertarian Jo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen
38,491 1.17% -2.41%
American Solidarity Brian Carroll
Amar Patel
5,259 0.16% +0.15%
Constitution Don Blankenship
William Mohr
5,146 0.16% -0.25%
Green Howie Hawkins (write-in)
Angela Walker (write-in)
1,089 0.03% -1.01%
Independent Kanye West (write-in)
Michelle Tidball (write-in)
411 0.01% N/A
Socialism and Liberation Gloria La Riva (write-in)
Sunil Freeman (write-in)
110 0.00% N/A
Independent Mark Charles (write-in)
Adrian Wallace (write-in)
52 0.00% N/A
Independent Jade Simmons (write-in)
Claudeliah Roze (write-in)
36 0.00% N/A
Independent Kasey Wells (write-in)
No running mate
25 0.00% N/A
Independent President R19 Boddie (write-in)
No running mate
5 0.00% N/A
Write-in 6,367 0.19% -0.57%
Total votes 3,298,041 100%

Between 2016 and 2020, the number of voters in Milwaukee suburban counties voting for the Democratic presidential candidate increased.[53]

By county

Official results by county following recount.[54][ev]

County Biden Trump Jorgensen Other Total
% Vote % Vote % Vote % Vote
Adams 36.63% 4,329 62.29% 7,362 0.72% 85 0.27% 32 11,818
Ashland 54.82% 4,801 43.86% 3,841 0.80% 70 0.33% 29 8,757
Barron 36.27% 9,194 62.35% 15,803 1.03% 262 0.30% 76 25,346
Bayfield 56.50% 6,147 42.44% 4,617 0.74% 80 0.29% 32 10,880
Brown 45.49% 65,511 52.68% 75,871 1.27% 1,829 0.33% 478 144,017
Buffalo 36.59% 2,860 61.85% 4,834 1.02% 80 0.40% 31 7,816
Burnett 35.19% 3,569 63.72% 6,462 0.85% 86 0.24% 24 10,141
Calumet 39.37% 12,116 59.00% 18,156 1.18% 363 0.41% 126 30,774
Chippewa 38.91% 13,983 59.32% 21,317 1.39% 501 0.31% 113 35,938
Clark 30.37% 4,524 67.14% 10,002 1.13% 168 1.23% 183 14,898
Columbia 48.45% 16,410 49.98% 16,927 1.24% 421 0.33% 111 33,869
Crawford 45.46% 3,953 53.13% 4,620 1.06% 92 0.35% 30 8,695
Dane 75.46% 260,185 22.85% 78,800 1.06% 3,668 0.39% 1,330 344,791
Dodge 33.77% 16,356 64.73% 31,355 1.10% 535 0.39% 190 48,436
Door 49.93% 10,044 48.48% 9,752 1.15% 231 0.29% 59 20,117
Douglas 53.56% 13,218 44.26% 10,923 1.54% 379 0.34% 84 24,677
Dunn 42.07% 9,897 56.00% 13,173 1.56% 368 0.37% 86 23,524
Eau Claire 54.26% 31,620 43.49% 25,341 1.59% 925 0.38% 223 58,275
Florence 26.56% 781 72.55% 2,133 0.75% 22 0.14% 4 2,940
Fond du Lac 35.96% 20,588 62.45% 35,754 1.20% 686 0.34% 194 57,251
Forest 34.06% 1,721 65.01% 3,285 0.69% 35 0.16% 8 5,053
Grant 42.95% 10,998 55.22% 14,142 1.37% 350 0.30% 78 25,608
Green 50.69% 10,851 47.51% 10,169 1.27% 271 0.38% 81 21,406
Green Lake 31.34% 3,344 67.17% 7,168 1.03% 110 0.25% 27 10,671
Iowa 55.95% 7,828 42.23% 5,909 1.15% 161 0.56% 78 13,992
Iron 38.23% 1,533 60.80% 2,438 0.65% 26 0.20% 8 4,010
Jackson 41.79% 4,256 56.86% 5,791 1.09% 111 0.26% 26 10,184
Jefferson 41.48% 19,904 56.71% 27,208 1.32% 634 0.26% 126 47,979
Juneau 34.62% 4,746 63.82% 8,749 1.06% 146 0.32% 44 13,709
Kenosha 47.55% 42,193 50.68% 44,972 1.17% 1,037 0.35% 312 88,738
Kewaunee 32.87% 3,976 65.54% 7,927 1.05% 127 0.39% 47 12,095
La Crosse 55.75% 37,846 42.25% 28,684 1.29% 877 0.43% 293 67,884
Lafayette 42.63% 3,647 56.35% 4,821 0.67% 57 0.33% 28 8,555
Langlade 33.18% 3,704 65.65% 7,330 0.84% 94 0.33% 37 11,165
Lincoln 37.95% 6,261 60.72% 10,017 1.06% 175 0.27% 44 16,497
Manitowoc 37.52% 16,818 60.72% 27,218 1.23% 553 0.40% 179 44,829
Marathon 40.14% 30,808 58.14% 44,624 1.21% 929 0.35% 266 76,751
Marinette 32.06% 7,366 66.60% 15,304 1.03% 237 0.31% 72 22,979
Marquette 35.73% 3,239 63.09% 5,719 0.86% 78 0.19% 17 9,065
Menominee 81.95% 1,303 17.48% 278 0.38% 6 0.19% 3 1,590
Milwaukee 69.13% 317,270 29.27% 134,357 0.95% 4,340 0.38% 1,753 458,971
Monroe 37.30% 8,433 60.92% 13,775 1.16% 263 0.44% 100 22,611
Oconto 28.93% 6,715 69.89% 16,226 0.90% 210 0.28% 64 23,215
Oneida 41.83% 10,105 56.59% 13,671 1.17% 283 0.30% 73 24,159
Outagamie 44.13% 47,667 54.05% 58,385 1.45% 1,569 0.37% 401 108,022
Ozaukee 43.13% 26,517 55.15% 33,912 1.05% 647 0.33% 201 61,486
Pepin 35.93% 1,489 62.36% 2,584 1.23% 51 0.48% 20 4,144
Pierce 42.01% 9,796 54.96% 12,815 1.64% 383 1.22% 284 23,317
Polk 35.53% 9,370 62.99% 16,611 1.10% 289 0.38% 101 26,371
Portage 50.31% 20,428 47.53% 19,299 1.58% 640 0.42% 169 40,603
Price 35.48% 3,032 63.12% 5,394 1.15% 98 0.26% 22 8,546
Racine 47.12% 50,159 51.18% 54,479 1.13% 1,200 0.36% 380 106,451
Richland 44.32% 3,995 54.04% 4,871 1.13% 102 0.38% 34 9,014
Rock 54.66% 46,658 43.51% 37,138 1.28% 1,094 0.34% 293 85,360
Rusk 31.92% 2,517 66.66% 5,257 1.08% 85 0.28% 22 7,886
Sauk 50.02% 18,108 48.32% 17,493 1.22% 441 0.44% 161 36,203
Sawyer 42.80% 4,498 56.22% 5,909 0.59% 62 0.25% 26 10,510
Shawano 31.53% 7,131 67.09% 15,173 1.12% 253 0.26% 58 22,615
Sheboygan 41.06% 27,101 56.97% 37,609 1.36% 896 0.36% 238 66,011
St. Croix 40.89% 23,190 56.78% 32,199 1.55% 878 0.54% 307 56,707
Taylor 25.20% 2,693 71.65% 7,657 1.06% 113 2.06% 220 10,686
Trempealeau 40.86% 6,285 57.43% 8,833 1.15% 177 0.42% 64 15,380
Vernon 46.83% 7,457 51.61% 8,218 1.14% 182 0.39% 62 15,923
Vilas 38.41% 5,903 60.26% 9,261 0.90% 138 0.23% 36 15,369
Walworth 39.56% 22,789 58.77% 33,851 1.11% 641 0.34% 196 57,600
Washburn 37.26% 3,867 61.03% 6,334 1.19% 123 0.35% 36 10,378
Washington 30.26% 26,650 68.40% 60,237 1.07% 941 0.27% 242 88,070
Waukesha 38.77% 103,906 59.57% 159,649 1.13% 3,023 0.27% 728 267,996
Waupaca 33.31% 9,703 65.06% 18,952 1.23% 357 0.28% 83 29,130
Waushara 32.34% 4,388 66.45% 9,016 0.85% 115 0.36% 49 13,568
Winnebago 46.86% 44,060 50.83% 47,796 1.73% 1,629 0.38% 357 94,032
Wood 39.63% 16,365 58.86% 24,308 0.98% 403 0.34% 141 41,298
Totals 49.45% 1,630,673 48.83% 1,610,065 1.17% 38,491 0.37% 12,130 3,297,352

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Trump won 6 out of 8 congressional districts in Wisconsin.

District Trump Biden Representative
1st 54% 45% Bryan Steil
2nd 29% 69% Mark Pocan
3rd 52% 47% Ron Kind
4th 23% 76% Gwen Moore
5th 57% 42% Jim Sensenbrenner
Scott Fitzgerald
6th 57% 42% Glenn Grothman
7th 59% 39% Tom Tiffany
8th 57% 41% Mike Gallagher

Edison exit polls

2020 presidential election in Wisconsin by demographic subgroup (Edison exit polling)[55]
Demographic subgroup Biden Trump % of

total vote

Total vote 50 49 99
Ideology
Liberals 91 8 25
Moderates 60 38 38
Conservatives 11 88 36
Party
Democrats 96 4 32
Republicans 7 93 37
Independents 54 42 31
Gender
Men 44 54 50
Women 56 43 50
Race/ethnicity
White 46 52 86
Black 92 8 6
Latino 60 37 4
Age
18–24 years old 61 33 8
25–29 years old 56 40 5
30–39 years old 52 46 14
40–49 years old 53 46 14
50–64 years old 46 53 32
65 and older 47 53 26
Sexual orientation
LGBT 80 16 5
Heterosexual 48 51 95
Education
High school or less 44 54 22
Some college education 49 49 27
Associate's degree 43 56 16
Bachelor's degree 52 46 23
Postgraduate degree 68 31 11
Income
Under $30,000 65 31 15
$30,000–49,999 55 44 20
$50,000–99,999 47 52 38
$100,000–199,999 43 56 21
Over $200,000 45 55 5
Union households
Yes 59 40 14
No 48 51 86
Issue regarded as most important
Racial inequality 91 6 13
Coronavirus 88 11 19
Economy 13 85 35
Crime and safety 17 82 13
Health care 81 19 8
Region
Milwaukee County 69 29 14
Milwaukee Suburbs 41 58 22
Dane County 76 23 10
Fox River Valley/N. Lakeshore 43 55 17
Southwest 47 52 19
North 39 59 17
Area type
Urban 69 30 30
Suburban 43 55 49
Rural 38 60 22
Family's financial situation today
Better than four years ago 16 83 39
Worse than four years ago 87 12 21
About the same 63 35 40

Aftermath

On November 6, Trump campaign manager Bill Stepien said: "There have been reports of irregularities in several Wisconsin counties which raise serious doubts about the validity of the results." No evidence of such "irregularities" has been provided by the Trump campaign.[56]

On November 18, the Trump campaign wired nearly $3 million dollars to the Wisconsin Election Commission in a petition for a partial recount of the 2020 presidential election results. The recount would take place in Milwaukee and Dane counties. "These two counties were selected because they are the locations of the worst irregularities," the campaign claimed in a release.[57]

Milwaukee certified its recount results on November 27, 2020, and led to Joe Biden gaining a net 132 votes. Dane certified its recount results on November 29, 2020, and led to Donald Trump gaining a net 45 votes. In total, the recount across the two counties led to Joe Biden increasing his lead by an additional 87 votes.

Electors

On November 30, Wisconsin Governor Tony Evers certified Wisconsin's electors for Biden.[58] The following electors all cast their vote for Biden:

Analysis

Prior to 2016, Wisconsin was seen as a reliably Democratic state, as it made up part of the blue wall and had only gone Republican four times since 1964, and had a blue streak going back to 1988. Trump pulled off a surprise win in the state in 2016, in large part due to a collapse in support for Hillary Clinton in the state, as Trump ran behind Mitt Romney's 2012 performance that year.

Both the Democratic and Republican candidates improved on their performances in the state in 2020, with Trump achieving a record total number of votes for a Republican candidate in the state of Wisconsin, nearly matching George W. Bush's 2004 performance in percentage. Conversely, Biden had the second most votes ever for a Democrat in Wisconsin, behind Obama's performance in 2008. While Biden's margin of victory was narrow (0.6%), and well behind Barack Obama's performances, it was nonetheless wider than Al Gore's 0.2% in 2000 and John Kerry's 0.4% in 2004.

Joe Biden received strong support in the city of Milwaukee, improving on Clinton's 2016 performance by 3.6 points in its county; Biden received 92% and 60% of the black and Latino vote respectively, with most of that electorate living in Milwaukee County. Both candidates performed well in the state with whites, with Trump carrying whites overall by 6 points, though Biden performed better with college-educated whites. Cementing Biden's victory was his strong performance in Dane County, which he carried by nearly 53 points. Biden would also carry La Crosse County by 13 points, Eau Claire County by 10 points, and flipped Sauk County and the bellwether Door County, while only losing Brown County by 7 points, winning the county seat Green Bay. Biden even made in-roads in Waukesha and Washington counties, nearly breaking 40% in the former and breaking 30% in the latter, though Trump still held these counties with large margins.

On the other hand, Trump was able to hold much of the driftless region in southwestern Wisconsin; many of these counties, such as Vernon, Crawford, and Grant were reliably Democratic during the latter half of the 20th century, but Trump maintained his results from 2016, solidifying a Republican shift in this part of the state. Additionally, Trump performed strongly in the more traditionally conservative northern counties of Wisconsin. Finally, Trump kept Kenosha County in his column, with both candidates improving there; Kenosha County is significant, as it was the site of the Jacob Blake shooting, which triggered nationwide protests. Biden thus became the first Democrat to win the presidency without carrying Kenosha County since Woodrow Wilson in 1916, and the first Democrat to win the presidency without carrying Pepin County since Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1944.

In terms of partisan lean, Biden was able to win 7% of Republicans in the state, which is significant, as they voted in this cycle by about 5 points more than Democrats. More importantly, Biden won independent voters by 12 points; Hillary Clinton lost this bloc to Trump by 10 points in 2016.

See also

Notes

Voter samples and additional candidates
  1. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  4. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
  5. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
  6. ^ a b c d e Standard VI response
  7. ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%; West (B) and would not vote with 0%
  8. ^ If only Biden, Trump and "some other candidate" were available
  9. ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%; would not vote with 0%
  10. ^ Results considering those who lean towards a given candidate among those initially predisposed towards abstention, indecision or a candidate besides Biden or Trump in the response section immediately above
  11. ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%
  12. ^ "Other" and "Refused/would not vote" with 1%
  13. ^ With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  14. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  15. ^ "None of these" and "Other" with 0%
  16. ^ "Someone else" with 1%; would not vote with 0%
  17. ^ Includes "Refused"
  18. ^ "Some other candidate" with 1%; West (B) and would not vote with 0%
  19. ^ If only Biden, Trump and "some other candidate" were available
  20. ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%; would not vote with 0%
  21. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
  22. ^ "Refused" with 6%; "None/other" with 1%; Did not vote with 0%
  23. ^ "None of these" with 1%; "Other" with 0%; would not vote with no voters
  24. ^ Includes Undecided
  25. ^ "Other" with 1%; would not vote with no voters
  26. ^ "Some other candidate" with 3%
  27. ^ Results generated with high Democratic turnout model
  28. ^ "Some other candidate" with 3%
  29. ^ Results generated with high Republican turnout model
  30. ^ "Some other candidate" with 3%
  31. ^ "Refused" with 2%; "Other" with 1%
  32. ^ a b c d e f g Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  33. ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%; West (B) with 1%; would not vote with 0%
  34. ^ If only Biden, Trump and "some other candidate" were available
  35. ^ "Some other candidate" with 3%; would not vote with 0%
  36. ^ "Someone else/third party" with 3%
  37. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  38. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  39. ^ "Someone else" and would not vote with 0%
  40. ^ Includes "Refused"
  41. ^ "Some other candidate" with 1%; West (B) and would not vote with 0%
  42. ^ If only Biden, Trump and "some other candidate" were available
  43. ^ "Some other candidate" with 3%; would not vote with 0%
  44. ^ "Another candidate" with 1%
  45. ^ "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 1%
  46. ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%; would not vote with 0%
  47. ^ "None/other" with 2% and "refused" with 5%
  48. ^ "None/other" and "refused" with 1%
  49. ^ "Another Party Candidate" with 2%
  50. ^ "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 0%
  51. ^ "Another Party Candidate" with 2%
  52. ^ "Another candidate" with 1%
  53. ^ "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 1%
  54. ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%; would not vote with 0%
  55. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sampling period
  56. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  57. ^ "None of these" with 1%; "Other" with 0%
  58. ^ "Neither" with 1%; "Other" and would not vote with 0%
  59. ^ "Someone else" and would not vote with 1%
  60. ^ Includes "Refused"
  61. ^ With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  62. ^ "Someone else" with 4%
  63. ^ Would not vote with 1%
  64. ^ "Other/not sure" with 6%
  65. ^ "Someone else/third party" with 2%
  66. ^ "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 0%
  67. ^ "Refused" with 2%; "None/other" with 0%
  68. ^ "Someone else" with 3%
  69. ^ "Other" with 1%
  70. ^ "Other" and would not vote with 1%
  71. ^ "Another Party Candidate"
  72. ^ "Another Third Party/Write-in" and West (B) with 1%
  73. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  74. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding third party and undecided voters
  75. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  76. ^ "Neither" with 2%; "refused" with 1%
  77. ^ "Someone else/third party" with 3%
  78. ^ "Other" with 3%; would not vote with 1%
  79. ^ West (B) with 2%; "Another Third Party/Write-In" 1%
  80. ^ "Other candidate" with 2%
  81. ^ Includes "refused"
  82. ^ "Other party candidate" with 8%
  83. ^ "Other" with 2%
  84. ^ "Neither" with 2%; "refused" with 1%
  85. ^ "Another candidate" with 3%; would not vote with 2%
  86. ^ "Libertarian Party candidate/Green Party candidate" with 5%
  87. ^ "Other" with 4%; would not vote with 2%
  88. ^ "Third party/write-in" with 3%
  89. ^ "Neither" with 3%; "Refused" with 1%
  90. ^ "Neither" with 3%; "refused" with 1%
  91. ^ "Other" with 5%; would not vote with 1%
  92. ^ "Neither" with 4%; "Refused" with 0%
  93. ^ "Someone else" with 1%; would not vote with 3%
  94. ^ "Neither" with 3%; "Refused" with 1%
  95. ^ Other with 6%; wouldn't vote with 2%
  96. ^ Neither with 1%; refused with 1%
  97. ^ A third party candidate with 6%; would not vote with 2%
  98. ^ Includes "refused"
  99. ^ Neither with 4%; refused with 1%
  100. ^ Neither with 3%; refused with 0%
  101. ^ "Neither" with 2%; "refused" with 1%
  102. ^ "Neither" with 5%; "refused" with 1%
  103. ^ "Someone else" with 2%; would not vote with 3%
  104. ^ A third party candidate with 8%; would not vote with 2%
  105. ^ Includes "refused"
  106. ^ Neither with 3%; refused with 1%
  107. ^ Neither with 3%; refused with 2%
  108. ^ "Neither" with 5%; "refused" with 1%
  109. ^ "Someone else" with 1%; would not vote with 4%
  110. ^ "Neither" with 4%; refused with 1%
  111. ^ Other with 7%; wouldn't vote with 3%
  112. ^ Neither with 2%; refused with 2%
  113. ^ A third party candidate with 6%; would not vote with 2%
  114. ^ Includes "refused"
  115. ^ Neither with 5%; refused with 2%
  116. ^ Neither with 5%; refused with 0%
  117. ^ "Neither" with 4%; "refused" with 1%
  118. ^ "Neither" with 4%; "refused" with 0%
  119. ^ "Someone else" with 1%; would not vote with 4%
  120. ^ Neither with 5%; refused with 1%
  121. ^ "Neither" with 5%; "refused" with 1%
  122. ^ "Other" with 7%; would not vote with 2%
  123. ^ "Neither" with 3%; "refused" with 1%
  124. ^ "Someone else" with 1%; would not vote with 3%
  125. ^ "Neither" with 3%; refused with 0%
  126. ^ Other with 6%; wouldn't vote with 2%
  127. ^ Neither with 3%; refused with 1%
  128. ^ A third party candidate with 6%; would not vote with 2%
  129. ^ Includes "refused"
  130. ^ Neither with 4%; refused with 1%
  131. ^ Neither with 4%; refused with 0%
  132. ^ "Neither" with 3%; "refused" with 1%
  133. ^ "Neither" with 4%; "refused" with 1%
  134. ^ "Someone else" with 1%; would not vote with 3%
  135. ^ "Neither" with 4%; refused with 1%
  136. ^ Other with 6%; wouldn't vote with 3%
  137. ^ Neither with 3%; refused with 2%
  138. ^ A third party candidate with 6%; would not vote with 2%
  139. ^ Includes "refused"
  140. ^ Neither with 3%; refused with 1%
  141. ^ Neither with 3%; refused with 0%
  142. ^ "Neither" with 3%; "refused" with 1%
  143. ^ Figures for each candidate in this poll include undecided voters who were reported to lean towards that candidate at the time of polling.
  144. ^ "It depends on who the Democrats nominate" with 1.9%; "unsure" with 0.9%
  145. ^ Figures for each candidate in this poll include undecided voters who were reported to lean towards that candidate at the time of polling.
  146. ^ "Third-party candidate" with 3%
  147. ^ "Would probably or definitely vote for someone other than Trump" with 57%
  148. ^ "Refused" with 0%
  149. ^ Listed as "unlikely to vote for Trump" as opposed to "likely to vote for Trump"
  150. ^ "Would probably or definitely vote for someone other than Trump" with 57%
  151. ^ "Refused" with 0%
  152. ^ To view in other formats, see at Wisconsin's Elections Commission
Partisan clients
  1. ^ a b c d The Center for American Greatness is a pro-Trump organization
  2. ^ This poll’s sponsor, DFER, primarily supports Democratic candidates
  3. ^ a b c d The Restoration PAC is a 501 non-profit which supports Donald Trump's 2020 presidential campaign
  4. ^ a b c Rust Belt Rising is affiliated with the Democratic Party
  5. ^ The Human Rights Campaign endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period
  6. ^ Heritage Action is the sister organisation of the Heritage Foundation, which exclusively endorses Republican candidates
  7. ^ This poll's sponsor is the American Principles Project, a 501(c)(4) organization that supports the Republican Party.
  8. ^ Poll sponsored by Protect Our Care, a pro-Affordable Care Act organisation
  9. ^ CAP Action is a political advocacy group that exclusively supports Democratic candidates
  10. ^ Poll sponsored by the Sanders campaign
  11. ^ Poll sponsored by Protect Our Care

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Further reading

External links

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