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2020 United States presidential election in Virginia

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

2020 United States presidential election in Virginia
Flag of Virginia.svg

← 2016 November 3, 2020 2024 →
Turnout74.64% Increase
 
Joe Biden 2013.jpg
Donald Trump official portrait (cropped).jpg
Nominee Joe Biden Donald Trump
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Delaware Florida
Running mate Kamala Harris Mike Pence
Projected electoral vote 13 0
Popular vote 2,413,568 1,962,430
Percentage 54.11% 44.00%

Virginia Presidential Election Results 2020.svg
County and Independent City Results

President before election

Donald Trump
Republican

Elected President

Joe Biden
Democratic

The 2020 United States presidential election in Virginia was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[1] Virginia voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Virginia has 13 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]

Prior to the election, all 14 news organizations considered this a state Biden would win, or a likely blue state. On the day of the election, Biden won Virginia with around 54.1% of the vote, and by a margin of 10%, the best performance for a Democratic presidential candidate since Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1944.[3] Additionally, Biden became the first Democratic nominee to win Chesterfield County and Lynchburg City since 1948, Virginia Beach City since 1964, James City County since 1968, and Stafford County since 1976.[4]

The diversification of Northern Virginia, as well as sliding suburban support for Republicans, allowed Biden to win the once-key battleground state without actively campaigning in Virginia. Biden won suburban Loudoun County, Prince William County, and Fairfax County with 61.9%, 62.8%, and 70.4%, respectively; and he also won government workers by 18 percentage points.[5] Additionally, he won Fairfax, Loudoun, Prince William, and Arlington counties by a total of more votes than he won by in Virginia overall.

This election, Virginia weighed in as 6.1% more Democratic than the nation as a whole. Although Virginia was considered a reliable Republican-leaning state from 1952 to 2004, it has not voted Republican in a presidential election since 2004, and it has not elected a Republican to any statewide office since 2009, largely due to migration into counties in Northern Virginia close to Washington, D.C., which has tilted these densely populated areas towards the Democrats.

Primary elections

Canceled Republican primary

The Virginia Republican Party is one of several state GOP parties that have officially canceled their respective primaries and caucuses.[6] Donald Trump's re-election campaign and GOP officials have cited the fact that Republicans canceled several state primaries when George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush sought a second term in 1992 and 2004, respectively; and Democrats scrapped some of their primaries when Bill Clinton and Barack Obama were seeking reelection in 1996 and 2012, respectively.[7][8] At the Virginia State Republican Convention, originally scheduled for May 2020 but postponed to August 15, 2020, the state party will formally bind all 48 of its national pledged delegates to Trump.[6][9][10]

Democratic primary

The Virginia Democratic primary took place on March 3, 2020, as part of the "Super Tuesday" suite of elections.

Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, and Bernie Sanders were among the major declared candidates.[11]

Results

Popular vote share by county
Popular vote share by congressional district
2020 Virginia Democratic presidential primary[12][a]
Candidate Votes % Delegates[14]
Joe Biden 705,501 53.30 67
Bernie Sanders 306,388 23.15 31
Elizabeth Warren 142,546 10.77 1
Michael Bloomberg 128,030 9.67 0
Tulsi Gabbard 11,288 0.85 0
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn†) 11,199 0.85 0
Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn†) 8,414 0.64 0
Andrew Yang (withdrawn†) 3,361 0.25 0
Cory Booker (withdrawn) 1,910 0.14 0
Tom Steyer (withdrawn†) 1,472 0.11 0
Michael Bennet (withdrawn†) 1,437 0.11 0
Marianne Williamson (withdrawn) 902 0.07 0
Julian Castro (withdrawn) 691 0.05 0
Deval Patrick (withdrawn†) 370 0.03 0
Write-in votes 184 0.01 0
Total 1,323,693 100% 99
†Candidate withdrew after absentee voting started.

Green primary

The Green Party of Virginia conducted an online ranked choice primary from April 20 to April 26, 2020.[15]

2020 Green Party of Virginia primary[15]
Candidate Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Round 4
Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes %
Howie Hawkins 42 62.7% 42 62.7% 43 64.2% 44 65.7%
Dario Hunter 17 25.4% 18 26.9% 21 31.3% 23 34.3%
Kent Mesplay 3 4.5% 3 4.5% 3 4.5% Eliminated
Sedinam Moyowasiza-Curry 2 3.0% 2 3.0% Eliminated
Jill Stein (write-in) 2 3.0% Eliminated
Jesse Ventura (write-in) 1 1.5% Eliminated
Total votes 67 100.0%

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[16] Likely D September 10, 2020
Inside Elections[17] Safe D September 4, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[18] Likely D July 14, 2020
Politico[19] Likely D September 8, 2020
RCP[20] Lean D August 3, 2020
Niskanen[21] Safe D July 26, 2020
CNN[22] Safe D August 3, 2020
The Economist[23] Likely D September 2, 2020
CBS News[24] Likely D August 16, 2020
270towin[25] Likely D August 2, 2020
ABC News[26] Safe D July 31, 2020
NPR[27] Lean D August 3, 2020
NBC News[28] Likely D August 6, 2020
538[29] Solid D September 9, 2020

Polling

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Donald
Trump

Republican
Other/
Undecided
[b]
Margin
270 to Win September 30 – October 27, 2020 October 28, 2020 53.3% 40.5% 6.2% Biden +12.8
FiveThirtyEight until October 27, 2020 October 28, 2020 52.9% 41.1% 6.0% Biden +11.8
Average 53.1% 40.8% 6.1% Biden +12.3

Polls

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump

Republican
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Jo
Jorgensen

Libertarian
Howie
Hawkins

Green
Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 4,550 (LV) ± 2% 41%[d] 57% - -
Swayable Oct 27 – Nov 1, 2020 467 (LV) ± 6.4% 39% 59% 2% 1%
Data for Progress Oct 27 – Nov 1, 2020 690 (LV) ± 3.7% 43% 54% 1% 0% 1%[e]
Roanoke College Oct 23–29, 2020 802 (LV) ± 3.5% 42% 53% 2% - 1% 2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 1–28, 2020 7,663 (LV) 43% 55% - -
Christopher Newport University Oct 15–27, 2020 908 (LV) ± 3.4% 41% 53% - - 2%[f] 4%
Swayable Oct 23–26, 2020 351 (LV) ± 5.2% 44% 55% 1% -
Virginia Commonwealth University Oct 13–22, 2020 709 (LV) ± 4.93% 39% 51% - - 2%[g] 8%[h]
Schar School/Washington Post Oct 13–19, 2020 908 (LV) ± 4% 41% 52% 3% - 0%[i] 4%
Civiqs/Daily Kos Oct 11–14, 2020 1,231 (LV) ± 3.1% 42% 55% - - 3%[j] 1%
Reconnect Research/Roanoke College Sep 30 – Oct 12, 2020 602 (LV) 39%[k] 54% 4% - - 4%
Survey Monkey/Tableau Sep 15 – Oct 12, 2020 4,248 (LV) 43% 55% - - 2%
Cygnal/Gade for Virginia[A] Oct 9–11, 2020 607 (LV) 42% 51% - -
SurveyMonkey/Axios Sep 1–30, 2020 2,882 (LV) 42% 56% - - 2%
Cygnal/Gade for Virginia[1][A] Sep 22–25, 2020 600 (LV) 41% 52% - -
Christopher Newport University Sep 9–21, 2020 796 (LV) ± 3.9% 43% 48% - - 2%[l] 7%
Virginia Commonwealth University Aug 28 – Sep 7, 2020 693 (LV) ± 6.22% 39% 52% - - 1%[m] 8%[n]
SurveyMonkey/Axios Aug 1–31, 2020 2,626 (LV) 41% 57% - - 2%
Roanoke College Aug 9–22, 2020 566 (LV) ± 4.1% 39% 53% - - 3%[o] 5%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jul 1–31, 2020 3,178 (LV) 43% 55% - - 2%
Morning Consult Jul 17–26, 2020 1,156 (LV) ± 2.9% 41% 52% - -
Virginia Commonwealth University Jul 11–19, 2020 725 (LV) ± 6.2% 39% 50% - - 1% 10%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jun 8–30, 2020 1,619 (LV) 42% 57% - - 1%
Morning Consult May 17–26, 2020 1,148 (LV) 42%[p] 52% - -
Roanoke College May 3–16, 2020 563 (LV) ± 4.1% 39% 51% - -
Virginia Commonwealth University Mar 25 – Apr 8, 2020 812 (A) ± 4.5% 41% 51% - - 8%
Hampton University Feb 25–28, 2020 768 (RV) ± 3.8% 38% 45% - -
Roanoke College Feb 9–18, 2020 520 (LV) ± 4.3% 40% 48% - -
Mason-Dixon Dec 12–16, 2019 625 (RV) ± 4.0% 45% 49% - - 6%
Virginia Commonwealth University Dec 2–13, 2019 728 (LV) ± 5.1% 46% 49% - - 5%[q]
Virginia Commonwealth University Sep 23 – Oct 4, 2019 645 (LV) ± 5.0% 44% 52% - - 4%[q]
University of Mary Washington/Research America Sep 3–15, 2019 1,009 (A) ± 3.1% 37% 55% - - 1% 4%
Former candidates

with Donald Trump and Michael Bloomberg

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Michael
Bloomberg (D)
Hampton University Feb 25–28, 2020 768 (RV) ± 3.8% 38% 43%
Roanoke College Feb 9–18, 2020 520 (LV) ± 4.3% 40% 46%

with Donald Trump and Pete Buttigieg

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Pete
Buttigieg (D)
Undecided
Hampton University Feb 25–28, 2020 768 (RV) ± 3.8% 38% 41%
Roanoke College Feb 9–18, 2020 520 (LV) ± 4.3% 40% 47%
Mason-Dixon Dec 12–16, 2019 625 (RV) ± 4.0% 47% 45% 8%

with Donald Trump and Kamala Harris

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Kamala
Harris (D)
Other Undecided
University of Mary Washington Sep 3–15, 2019 1,009 (A) ± 3.1% 38% 50% 2% 5%

with Donald Trump and Amy Klobuchar

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Amy
Klobuchar (D)
Hampton University Feb 25–28, 2020 768 (RV) ± 3.8% 37% 39%
Roanoke College Feb 9–18, 2020 520 (LV) ± 4.3% 39% 46%

with Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Bernie
Sanders (D)
Other Undecided
Hampton University Feb 25–28, 2020 768 (RV) ± 3.8% 39% 44%
Roanoke College Feb 9–18, 2020 520 (LV) ± 4.3% 40% 49%
Mason-Dixon Dec 12–16, 2019 625 (RV) ± 4.0% 51% 45% 4%
Virginia Commonwealth University Dec 2–13, 2019 728 (LV) ± 5.1% 48% 45% 7%[q]
Virginia Commonwealth University Sep 2 – Oct 4, 2019 645 (LV) ± 5.0% 47% 48% 5%[q]
University of Mary Washington/Research America Sep 3–15, 2019 1,009 (A) ± 3.1% 38% 53% 2% 4%

with Donald Trump and Elizabeth Warren

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Elizabeth
Warren (D)
Other Undecided
Hampton University Feb 25–28, 2020 768 (RV) ± 3.8% 40% 42%
Roanoke College Feb 9–18, 2020 520 (LV) ± 4.3% 41% 48%
Mason-Dixon Dec 12–16, 2019 625 (RV) ± 4.0% 48% 44% 8%
Virginia Commonwealth University Dec 2–13, 2019 728 (LV) ± 5.1% 47% 47% 6%[q]
Virginia Commonwealth University Sep 23 – Oct 4, 2019 645 (LV) ± 5.0% 46% 50% 4%[q]
University of Mary Washington Sep 3–15, 2019 1,009 (A) ± 3.1% 38% 53% 1% 5%
Hypothetical polling

with Donald Trump and Generic Democrat

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Generic
Democrat
Other Undecided
Wason Center, Christopher
Newport University
Sep 4–30, 2019 726 (RV) ± 4.1% 36% 51% 6%[r] 6%

with Donald Trump and Generic Opponent

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Generic
Opponent
Other Undecided
Wason Center, Christopher
Newport University
Feb 3–23, 2020 866 (RV) ± 3.5% 38% 59%[s] 0%[t] 2%

with Generic Republican and Generic Democrat

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Generic
Republican
Generic
Democrat
Other Undecided
Virginia Commonwealth University Sep 23 – Oct 4, 2019 645 (LV) ± 5.0% 48% 49% 3%[q]
Ipsos/University of Virginia Feb 15–19, 2019 636 (A) ± 4.0% 25% 45% 3% 20%

Results

Line for early voting in Herndon
Line for early voting in Herndon
2020 United States presidential election in Virginia[30]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Joe Biden
Kamala Harris
2,413,568 54.11% +4.38%
Republican Donald Trump
Mike Pence
1,962,430 44.00% -0.41%
Libertarian Jo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen
64,761 1.45% -1.52%
Write-in 19,765 0.44 -0.41%
Total votes 4,460,524 100.00%

See also

Notes

  1. ^ The "2020 March Democratic Presidential Primary" website published by the Virginia Department of Elections does not include the write-in votes.[13] This article includes them.
  2. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  3. ^ a b c d e f g h i j Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  4. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  5. ^ "Other candidate or write-in" with 1%
  6. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  7. ^ "Third party candidate" with 2%
  8. ^ Includes "Refused"
  9. ^ "Other", "None of these" and would not vote with 0%
  10. ^ "Someone else" with 3%
  11. ^ With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  12. ^ "Another candidate" with 2%
  13. ^ "Third party candidate" with 1%
  14. ^ Includes "Refused"
  15. ^ "Some other candidate" with 3%
  16. ^ Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  17. ^ a b c d e f g Includes "refused"
  18. ^ "Would vote for a third party candidate" with 6%
  19. ^ "It is time to have someone else in office" as opposed to "Trump should be re-elected" with 59%
  20. ^ "Refused" with 0%
Partisan clients
  1. ^ a b Poll conducted by Daniel Gade's campaign

References

  1. ^ Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  2. ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  3. ^ "Without Northern Virginia, Trump would have won the state". Inside Nova. Retrieved November 17, 2020.
  4. ^ "Chesterfield and Lynchburg hadn't backed a Democrat for president since 1948. Biden changed that". Virginia Mercury. November 5, 2020. Retrieved November 17, 2020.
  5. ^ "Virginia Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 13, 2020.
  6. ^ a b "Virginia Republicans Will Hold 2020 Presidential Preference Vote at State Convention". Frontloading. September 18, 2019. Retrieved September 19, 2019.
  7. ^ Karni, Annie (September 6, 2019). "GOP plans to drop presidential primaries in 4 states to impede Trump challengers". Boston Globe. MSN. Retrieved September 7, 2019.
  8. ^ Steakin, Will; Karson, Kendall (September 6, 2019). "GOP considers canceling at least 3 GOP primaries and caucuses, Trump challengers outraged". ABC News. Retrieved September 7, 2019.
  9. ^ "Virginia Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved February 20, 2020.
  10. ^ Mattingly, Justin (June 30, 2020). "Republican Party of Virginia reschedules 'unassembled' convention for August". Richmond Times-Dispatch. Retrieved July 10, 2020.
  11. ^ Taylor, Kate (February 9, 2019). "Elizabeth Warren Formally Announces 2020 Presidential Bid in Lawrence, Mass". The New York Times. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
  12. ^ "2020 March Democratic Presidential Primary". Virginia.gov. Virginia Department of Elections. Archived from the original on March 27, 2020. Retrieved March 25, 2020.
  13. ^ "2020 March Democratic Presidential Primary". Virginia Department of Elections. Retrieved March 11, 2020.
  14. ^ "2020 Presidential Primaries, Caucuses, and Conventions: Virginia Democrat". The Green Papers. Retrieved July 4, 2020.
  15. ^ a b Jonah Thomas (May 12, 2020). "2020 GPVA Presidential Primary Results".
  16. ^ "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  17. ^ "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  18. ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  19. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
  20. ^ "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
  21. ^ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020
  22. ^ David Chalian; Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
  23. ^ "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
  24. ^ "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
  25. ^ "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
  26. ^ "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
  27. ^ "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
  28. ^ "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
  29. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
  30. ^ "2020 November General". results.elections.virginia.gov. Retrieved November 20, 2020.

External links

This page was last edited on 28 November 2020, at 20:53
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