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2020 United States presidential election in Texas

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

2020 United States presidential election in Texas

← 2016 November 3, 2020 2024 →
Turnout66.73%[1] Increase
 
Donald Trump official portrait (cropped).jpg
Joe Biden 2013.jpg
Nominee Donald Trump Joe Biden
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Florida Delaware
Running mate Mike Pence Kamala Harris
Projected electoral vote 38 0
Popular vote 5,890,347 5,259,126
Percentage 52.06% 46.48%

Texas Presidential Election Results 2020.svg
Preliminary County Results

President before election

Donald Trump
Republican

Elected President

Joe Biden
Democratic

The 2020 United States presidential election in Texas was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[2] Texan voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. The state of Texas has 38 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[3]

Although it was considered a vulnerable state for Trump by pollsters and experts and a potential upset victory for Biden due to its recent demographic trends, Trump held Texas with 52.1% of the vote, roughly the same percentage he carried it with in 2016, while Biden improved over Hillary Clinton's 2016 margin by 3%, having the strongest performance by a Democrat in the state since Bill Clinton in 1996. Trump's margin of victory was 5.58%, a decrease from his 9% margin in 2016, but it was significantly larger than his lead in polling. Turnout saw a large increase, becoming the highest in the state since 1992, when two Texans, George H. W. Bush and Ross Perot, were on the ballot.[4]

While Biden still won Latino voters with 58%,[5] and Latinos of Mexican heritage with 63%,[6] Trump significantly improved his numbers among Hispanic voters in this state, particularly in the Rio Grande Valley.[7] Trump flipped Jim Wells County and La Salle County, both not won by a Republican since 1972; as well as Frio County, Kenedy County, Kleberg County, Reeves County, and Val Verde County. He also became the first Republican to win Zapata County since Warren G. Harding in 1920, flipping it by five points after having lost it by 33 points in 2016.[8] Conversely, Biden flipped Tarrant County, home to the fifth largest city in Texas, Fort Worth, which had not been won by a Democrat since 1964, when favorite son Lyndon B. Johnson carried it; as well as Hays County and Williamson County, both of them suburban counties located outside of Austin that had not been won by a Democrat since 1992 and 1976, respectively.[9]

Primary elections

Republican primary

The Republican primary was held on March 3, 2020. Donald Trump and Bill Weld were declared Republican candidates. Former South Carolina Governor and U.S. Representative Mark Sanford and U.S. Representative Joe Walsh dropped out. Texas Governor Greg Abbott declined to run against Trump, as did 2016 Republican primary candidate and current senator Ted Cruz.[10][11]

Republican primary results

2020 Texas Republican Party presidential primary[12]
Candidate Popular vote Delegates
Count Percentage
America Symbol.svg
Donald Trump
1,898,664 94.13% 117
Uncommitted 71,803 3.56% 0
Bill Weld 15,739 0.78% 0
Joe Walsh 15,824 0.78% 0
Rocky De La Fuente 7,563 0.38% 0
Bob Ely 3,582 0.37% 0
Matthew Matern 3,525 0.18% 0
Zoltan Istvan 1,447 0.07% 0
Total: 2,017,167 100% 155

Democratic primary

The Democratic primary was held on March 3, 2020. Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, and Joe Biden were among the major declared candidates.[13][14][15]

Democratic primary results

2020 Texas Democratic presidential primary[16][17]
Candidate Votes % Delegates
Joe Biden 725,562 34.64 113
Bernie Sanders 626,339 29.91 99
Michael Bloomberg 300,608 14.35 11
Elizabeth Warren 239,237 11.42 5
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn†) 82,671 3.95 0
Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn†) 43,291 2.07 0
Julian Castro (withdrawn) 16,688 0.80 0
Tom Steyer (withdrawn†) 13,929 0.67 0
Michael Bennet (withdrawn) 10,324 0.49 0
Tulsi Gabbard 8,688 0.41 0
Andrew Yang (withdrawn) 6,674 0.32 0
Roque De La Fuente III 5,469 0.26 0
Cory Booker (withdrawn) 4,941 0.24 0
Marianne Williamson (withdrawn) 3,918 0.19 0
John Delaney (withdrawn) 3,280 0.16 0
Robby Wells 1,505 0.07 0
Deval Patrick (withdrawn) 1,304 0.06 0
Total 2,094,428 100% 228
†Candidate withdrew after early voting started.

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[18] Tossup October 28, 2020
Inside Elections[19] Tossup October 28, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[20] Lean R October 8, 2020
Politico[21] Lean R October 11, 2020
RCP[22] Tossup October 30, 2020
Niskanen[23] Tossup September 15, 2020
CNN[24] Lean R October 30, 2020
The Economist[25] Lean R October 30, 2020
CBS News[26] Lean R October 25, 2020
270towin[27] Lean R October 29, 2020
ABC News[28] Tossup October 30, 2020
NPR[29] Tossup October 30, 2020
NBC News[30] Tossup October 30, 2020
538[31] Lean R October 30, 2020

Polling

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Donald
Trump

Republican
Other/
Undecided
[a]
Margin
270 to Win Oct 20–31, 2020 November 2, 2020 47.5% 48.8% 3.7% Trump +1.3
Real Clear Politics October 20–31, 2020 November 1, 2020 46.5% 47.7% 5.8% Trump +1.2
FiveThirtyEight until November 1, 2020 November 2, 2020 47.5% 48.5% 4.0% Trump +1.0
Average 47.2% 48.3% 4.5% Trump +1.1

Polls

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump

Republican
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Jo
Jorgensen

Libertarian
Howie
Hawkins

Green
Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 9,226 (LV) ± 1.5% 51%[c] 47%
Swayable Oct 27 – Nov 1, 2020 1,151 (LV) ± 3.9% 51% 47% 1% 0%
Data For Progress Oct 27 – Nov 1, 2020 926 (LV) ± 3.2% 48% 49% 1% 1% 0%[d]
AtlasIntel Oct 30–31, 2020 686 (LV) ± 4% 50% 47% 3%
Emerson College Oct 29–31, 2020 763 (LV) ± 3.5% 49%[e] 48% - - 2%[f]
Morning Consult Oct 22–31, 2020 3,267 (LV) ± 2% 48% 48%
Public Policy Polling Oct 28–29, 2020 775 (V) 48% 50% 2%
Gravis Marketing Oct 27–28, 2020 670 (LV) ± 3.8% 50% 45% 5%
RMG Research/PoliticalIQ Oct 27–28, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 50%[g] 46% 2%[h] 2%
48%[i] 48% 2%[j] 2%
52%[k] 44% 2%[l] 2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 1–28, 2020 15,145 (LV) 51% 47%
Swayable Oct 23–26, 2020 552 (LV) ± 5.7% 49% 48% 3% 1%
YouGov/UMass Amherst Oct 20–26, 2020 873 (LV) ± 4.2% 48% 47% 2% 1% 0%[m] 1%
Data for Progress (D) Oct 22–25, 2020 1,018 (LV) ± 3.1% 48% 49% 1% 0% 2%
Siena College/NYT Upshot Oct 20–25, 2020 802 (LV) ± 3.8% 47% 43% 3% 0% 2%[n] 5%[o]
Univision/University of Houston/Latino
Decisions/North Star Opinion Research
Oct 17–25, 2020 758 (RV) ± 3.56% 49% 46% 3%[p] 2%
Citizen Data Oct 17–20, 2020 1,000 (LV) ± 3% 45% 49% 1% 0% 1% 4%
YouGov/University of Houston Oct 13–20, 2020 1,000 (LV) ± 3.1% 50% 45% 2% 0% 3%
University of Texas at Tyler/Dallas Morning News Oct 13–20, 2020 925 (LV) ± 3.2% 47%[q] 49% 3% 1% 1%
Morning Consult Oct 11–20, 2020 3,347 (LV) ± 1.7% 47% 48%
Quinnipiac University Oct 16–19, 2020 1,145 (LV) ± 2.9% 47% 47% 1%[r] 5%
Data for Progress (D) Oct 15–18, 2020 933 (LV) ± 3.2% 46%[s] 47% 2% 1% 5%
Morning Consult[1] Oct 2–11, 2020 3,455 (LV) ± 1.7% 49% 47% 3%
Public Policy Polling/Texas Democrats[A] Oct 7–8, 2020 721 (LV) ± 3.6% 48% 48% 1%
YouGov/CCES Sep 29 – Oct 7, 2020 2,947 (LV) 49% 47%
Morning Consult Sep 28 – Oct 7, 2020 ~2,700 (LV) ± 2% 49% 46%
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports/Crosswind PR Oct 5–6, 2020 1,000 (LV) ± 3% 51% 44%
Civiqs/Daily Kos Oct 3–6, 2020 895 (LV) ± 3.4% 48% 48% 2%[t] 1%
Data For Progress (D) Sep 30 – Oct 5, 2020 1,949 (LV) ± 2.2% 45% 47% 2% 1% 5%
YouGov/University of Texas/Texas Tribune Sep 25 – Oct 4, 2020 908 (LV) ± 3.25% 50% 45% 2% 2% 1%[u]
EMC Research/Blue Texas PAC[B] Sep 27 – Oct 2, 2020 848 (LV) 49% 49%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Sep 1–30, 2020 13,395 (LV) 52% 46% 2%
Hart Research Associates/Human Rights Campaign[C] Sep 24–27, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 49% 47%
Morning Consult Sep 18–27, 2020 ~2,700 (LV) ± 2% 48% 47%
Public Policy Polling/Texas Democrats[2][D] Sep 25–26, 2020 612 (LV) ± 3.6% 48% 48% 4%
YouGov/UMass Lowell Sep 18–25, 2020 882 (LV) ± 4.3% 49%[v] 46% 2% 1% 1%[w] 1%
50%[x] 46% 2%[y] 2%
Data For Progress[E] Sep 18–22, 2020 726 (LV) ± 3.6% 47% 45% 9%
Siena College/NYT Upshot Sep 16–22, 2020 653 (LV) ± 4.3% 46% 43% 1% 1% 0%[z] 9%[aa]
Quinnipiac University Sep 17–21, 2020 1,078 (LV) ± 3% 50% 45% No voters 4%
YouGov/CBS Sep 15–18, 2020 1,129 (LV) ± 3.5% 48% 46% 2%[ab] 4%
Morning Consult Sep 8–17, 2020 ~2,700 (LV) ± 2% 47% 47%
Morning Consult Aug 29 – Sep 7, 2020 2,829 (LV) ± 2% 46%[ac] 46%
Public Policy Polling/Giffords[F] Sep 1–2, 2020 743 (V) 48% 47% 5%
University of Texas at Tyler/Dallas Morning News Aug 28 – Sep 2, 2020 901 (LV) ± 3.26% 49%[ad] 47% 1% 1% 1%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Aug 1–31, 2020 12,607 (LV) 52% 46% 2%
Morning Consult Aug 21–30, 2020 2,632 (LV) ± 2% 48%[ae] 47%
Tyson Group/Consumer Energy Alliance[G] Aug 20–25, 2020 906 (LV) ± 3% 44% 48% 0% 0%[af] 5%
Data for Progress/Texas Youth Power Alliance Aug 20–25, 2020 2,295 (LV) ± 2.0% 45% 48% 8%
Public Policy Polling/Texas Democrats[3][H] Aug 21–22, 2020 764 (RV) ± 3.6% 47% 48% 5%
Morning Consult Aug 13–22, 2020 ~2,700 (LV) ± 2% 48% 47%
Morning Consult Aug 7–16, 2020 2,559 (LV) ± 2% 47%[ag] 46%
Global Strategy Group/Chrysta for Texas[I] Aug 11–13, 2020 700 (LV) ± 3.7% 45% 47%
YouGov/Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation/Rice University’s Baker Institute Aug 4–13, 2020 846 (RV) 48% 41% 1% 1% 10.2%
– (LV)[J] 50% 44% 1% 0% 5%
Trafalgar Group (R) Aug 1–5, 2020 1,015 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 43% 2% 2%[ah] 3%
Morning Consult Aug 3–12, 2020 ~2,700 (LV) ± 2.0% 47% 46%
Morning Consult Jul 24 – Aug 2, 2020 2,576 (LV) ± 2.0% 46%[ai] 47% 2%[aj] 5%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jul 1–31, 2020 13,721 (LV) 52% 46% 2%
Morning Consult Jul 17–26, 2020 2,685 (LV) ± 1.9% 45%[ak] 47%
Morning Consult[4] Jul 16–25, 2020 ~2,700 (LV)[al] ± 2.0% 45% 47%
Spry Strategies/American Principles Project[K] Jul 16–20, 2020 750 (LV) ± 3.5% 49% 45% 6%
Quinnipiac University Jul 16–20, 2020 880 (RV) ± 3.3% 44% 45% 7%[am] 4%
Morning Consult Jul 6–15, 2020 – (LV)[an] 46% 46%
YouGov/CBS Jul 7–10, 2020 1,185 (LV) ± 3.6% 46% 45% 4%[ao] 6%
Gravis Marketing/OANN Jul 7, 2020 591 (LV) ± 4.3% 46% 44%
Dallas Morning News/University of Texas at Tyler Jun 29 – Jul 7, 2020 1,677 (LV) ± 2.4% 43% 48% 4% 5%
Morning Consult Jun 26 – Jul 5, 2020 – (LV)[ap] 46% 45%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jun 8–30, 2020 6,669 (LV) 51% 46% 2%
YouGov/University of Texas/Texas Politics Project Jun 19–29, 2020 1,200 (RV) ± 2.89% 48% 44% 8%
Public Policy Polling[5] Jun 24–25, 2020 729 (RV) ± 3.6% 46% 48% 5%
Morning Consult Jun 16–25, 2020 – (LV)[aq] 47% 44%
Fox News Jun 20–23, 2020 1,001 (RV) ± 3% 44% 45% 5%[ar] 5%
Public Policy Polling/Progress Texas[6][L] Jun 18–19, 2020 907 (V) ± 3% 48% 46% 6%
Morning Consult Jun 6–15, 2020 – (LV)[as] 48% 45%
Morning Consult May 27 – Jun 5, 2020 – (LV)[at] 48% 43%
Public Policy Polling/Texas Democrats[M] Jun 2–3, 2020 683 (V) 48% 48% 4%
Quinnipiac May 28 – Jun 1, 2020 1,166 (RV) ± 2.9% 44% 43% 6%[au] 7%
Morning Consult May 17–26, 2020 2,551 (LV) 50%[av] 43%
Morning Consult May 16–25, 2020 – (LV)[aw] 50% 42%
Morning Consult May 6–15, 2020 – (LV)[ax] 49% 43%
Emerson College May 8–10, 2020 800 (RV) ± 3.4% 52%[ay] 48%
Public Policy Polling Apr 27–28, 2020 1,032 (V) 46% 47% 7%
Dallas Morning News/University of Texas at Tyler Apr 18–27, 2020 1,183 (RV) ± 2.85% 43% 43% 5% 9%
University of Texas/Texas Tribune Apr 10–19, 2020 1,200 (RV) ± 2.8% 49% 44% 7%
AtlasIntel Feb 24 – Mar 2, 2020 1,100 (RV) ± 3.0% 47% 43% 11%
NBC News/Marist College Feb 23–27, 2020 2,409 (RV) ± 2.5% 49% 45% 1% 5%
CNN/SSRS Feb 22–26, 2020 1,003 (RV) ± 3.4% 47% 48% 3%[az] 2%
Univision Feb 21–26, 2020 1,004 (RV) ± 3.1% 43% 46% 11%
Dallas Morning News/University of Texas at Tyler Feb 17–26, 2020 1,221 (RV) ± 2.8% 45% 44% 11%
YouGov/University of Texas/Texas Tribune Jan 31 – Feb 9, 2020 1,200 (RV) ± 2.83% 47% 44% 10%
University of Texas at Tyler/Dallas News Jan 21–30, 2020 910 (LV) ± 3.24% 46% 44% 10%[ba]
Data For Progress[N] Jan 16–21, 2020 1,486 (LV) 54% 40% 3%[bb] 3%
Texas Lyceum Jan 10–19, 2020 520 (LV) ± 4.3% 51% 46% 3%
CNN/SSRS Dec 4–9, 2019 1,003 (RV) 48% 47% 2%[bc] 3%
Beacon Research (R) Nov 9–21, 2019 1,601 (RV) ± 3.0% 45% 44%
University of Texas at Tyler Nov 5–14, 2019 1,093 (RV) ± 3.0% 45% 39% 16%
University of Texas/ Texas Tribune Oct 18–27, 2019 1,200 (RV) ± 2.8% 46% 39% 9%[bd] 6%
University of Texas at Tyler Sep 13–15, 2019 1,199 (RV) ± 2.8% 38% 40% 13% 9%
Univision Aug 31 – Sep 6, 2019 1,004 (RV) 43% 47% 10%
Climate Nexus Aug 20–25, 2019 1,660 (RV) ± 2.4% 43% 43% 9%
University of Texas at Tyler Aug 1–4, 2019 1,261 (RV) ± 2.8% 37% 41% 14% 8%
Emerson Aug 1–3, 2019 1,033 (RV) ± 3.0% 49% 51%
University of Texas at Tyler Jul 24–27, 2019 1,414 (RV) ± 2.6% 37% 37% 12% 14%
Quinnipiac University May 29 – Jun 4, 2019 1,159 (RV) ± 3.4% 44% 48% 1% 4%
WPA Intelligence Apr 27–30, 2019 200 (LV) ± 6.9% 49% 42% 7%
Emerson College Apr 25–28, 2019 799 (RV) ± 3.4% 50%[be] 51%
Quinnipiac University Feb 20–25, 2019 1,222 (RV) ± 3.4% 47% 46% 1% 5%
Public Policy Polling (D)[O] Feb 13–14, 2019 743 (RV) ± 3.6% 49% 46% 5%
Former candidates

Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Bernie
Sanders (D)
Other Undecided
AtlasIntel Feb 24 – Mar 2, 2020 1,100 (RV) ± 3.0% 49% 43% 9%
NBC News/Marist College Feb 23–27, 2020 2,409 (RV) ± 2.5% 49% 45% 1% 5%
CNN/SSRS Feb 22–26, 2020 1,003 (RV) ± 3.4% 48% 46% 3%[bf] 3%
Univision Feb 21–26, 2020 1,004 (RV) ± 3.1% 45% 45% 10%
Dallas Morning News/University of Texas at Tyler Feb 17–26, 2020 1,221 (RV) ± 2.8% 45% 44% 11%
YouGov/University of Texas/Texas Tribune Jan 31 – Feb 9, 2020 1,200 (RV) ± 2.83% 47% 45% 7%
University of Texas at Tyler/Dallas News Jan 21–30, 2020 910 (LV) ± 3.24% 47% 42% 12%[bg]
Data for Progress[N] Jan 16–21, 2020 1,486 (LV) 55% 40% 3%[bh] 2%
Texas Lyceum Jan 10–19, 2020 520 (LV) ± 4.3% 50% 47% 3%
CNN/SSRS Dec 4–9, 2019 1,003 (RV) 50% 43% 4%[bi] 3%
University of Texas at Tyler Nov 5–14, 2019 1,093 (RV) ± 3.0% 44% 40% 16%
University of Texas/ Texas Tribune Oct 18–27, 2019 1,200 (RV) ± 2.8% 45% 40% 9%[bj] 5%
University of Texas at Tyler Sep 13–15, 2019 1,199 (RV) ± 2.8% 40% 38% 14% 8%
Univision Aug 31 – Sep 6, 2019 1,004 (RV) 42% 48% 10%
Climate Nexus Aug 20–25, 2019 1,660 (RV) ± 2.4% 45% 41% 7%
University of Texas at Tyler Aug 1–4, 2019 1,261 (RV) ± 2.8% 38% 42% 13% 7%
Emerson Aug 1–3, 2019 1,033 (RV) ± 3.0% 49% 51%
University of Texas at Tyler Jul 24–27, 2019 1,414 (RV) ± 2.6% 37% 39% 11% 12%
Quinnipiac University May 29 – Jun 4, 2019 1,159 (RV) ± 3.4% 47% 44% 1% 4%
Emerson College Apr 25–28, 2019 799 (RV) ± 3.4% 51%[bk] 49%
Quinnipiac University Feb 20–25, 2019 1,222 (RV) ± 3.4% 47% 45% 2% 4%

Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Elizabeth
Warren (D)
Other Undecided
AtlasIntel Feb 24 – Mar 2, 2020 1,100 (RV) ± 3.0% 49% 40% 12%
CNN/SSRS Feb 22–26, 2020 1,003 (RV) ± 3.4% 47% 47% 2%[bl] 4%
Univision Feb 21–26, 2020 1,004 (RV) ± 3.1% 48% 41% 11%
Dallas Morning News/University of Texas at Tyler Feb 17–26, 2020 1,221 (RV) ± 2.8% 47% 37% 16% -
YouGov/University of Texas/Texas Tribune Jan 31 – Feb 9, 2020 1,200 (RV) ± 2.83% 47% 44% 9%
University of Texas at Tyler/Dallas News Jan 21–30, 2020 907 (LV) ± 3.24% 48% 41% 12%[bm]
Data for Progress[N] Jan 16–21, 2020 1,486 (LV) 56% 38% 3%[bn] 3%
Texas Lyceum Jan 10–19, 2020 520 (LV) ± 4.3% 50% 43% 7%
CNN/SSRS Dec 4–9, 2019 1,003 (RV) 51% 44% 3%[bo] 2%
Beacon Research (R) Nov 9–21, 2019 1,601 (RV) ± 3.0% 46% 41%
University of Texas at Tyler Nov 5–14, 2019 1,093 (RV) ± 3.0% 46% 35% 20%
University of Texas/ Texas Tribune Oct 18–27, 2019 1,200 (RV) ± 2.8% 46% 39% 10%[bp] 6%
University of Texas at Tyler Sep 13–15, 2019 1,199 (RV) ± 2.8% 40% 37% 15% 9%
Univision Aug 31 – Sep 6, 2019 1,004 (RV) 42% 44% 14%
Emerson Aug 1–3, 2019 1,033 (RV) ± 3.0% 52% 48%
Quinnipiac University May 29 – Jun 4, 2019 1,159 (RV) ± 3.4% 46% 45% 1% 5%
Emerson College Apr 25–28, 2019 799 (RV) ± 3.4% 53% 47%
Quinnipiac University Feb 20–25, 2019 1,222 (RV) ± 3.4% 48% 41% 2% 6%

Donald Trump vs. Michael Bloomberg

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Michael
Bloomberg (D)
Other Undecided
AtlasIntel Feb 24 – Mar 2, 2020 1,100 (RV) ± 3.0% 48% 36% 17%
CNN/SSRS Feb 22–26, 2020 1,003 (RV) ± 3.4% 47% 46% 3%[bq] 4%
Univision Feb 21–26, 2020 1,004 (RV) ± 3.1% 43% 44% 13%
Dallas Morning News/University of Texas at Tyler Feb 17–26, 2020 1,221 (RV) ± 2.8% 45% 44% 10% -
YouGov/University of Texas/Texas Tribune Jan 31 – Feb 9, 2020 1,200 (RV) ± 2.83% 46% 41% 13%
University of Texas at Tyler/Dallas News Jan 21–30, 2020 906 (LV) ± 3.24% 47% 44% 9%[br]

Donald Trump vs. Amy Klobuchar

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Amy
Klobuchar (D)
Other Undecided
CNN/SSRS Feb 22–26, 2020 1,003 (RV) ± 3.4% 48% 45% 2%[bs] 5%
Univision Feb 21–26, 2020 1,004 (RV) ± 3.1% 46% 39% 15%
Dallas Morning News/University of Texas at Tyler Feb 17–26, 2020 1,221 (RV) ± 2.8% 45% 38% 17% -
YouGov/University of Texas/Texas Tribune Jan 31 – Feb 9, 2020 1,200 (RV) ± 2.83% 46% 41% 13%
University of Texas at Tyler/Dallas News Jan 21–30, 2020 909 (LV) ± 3.24% 46% 38% 16%[bt]

Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Pete
Buttigieg (D)
Other Undecided
CNN/SSRS Feb 22–26, 2020 1,003 (RV) ± 3.4% 47% 46% 2%[bu] 4%
Univision Feb 21–26, 2020 1,004 (RV) ± 3.1% 46% 40% 15%
Dallas Morning News/University of Texas at Tyler Feb 17–26, 2020 1,221 (RV) ± 2.8% 45% 41% 15% -
YouGov/University of Texas/Texas Tribune Jan 31 – Feb 9, 2020 1,200 (RV) ± 2.83% 47% 42% 11%
University of Texas at Tyler/Dallas News Jan 21–30, 2020 905 (LV) ± 3.24% 47% 37% 15%[bv]
Data for Progress[N] Jan 16–21, 2020 1,486 (LV) 56% 36% 4%[bw] 4%
Texas Lyceum Jan 10–19, 2020 520 (LV) ± 4.3% 51% 43% 6%
CNN/SSRS Dec 4–9, 2019 1,003 (RV) 50% 43% 2%[bx] 6%
University of Texas at Tyler Nov 5–14, 2019 1,093 (RV) ± 3.0% 45% 33% - 22%
University of Texas at Tyler Sep 13–15, 2019 1,199 (RV) ± 2.8% 39% 30% 21% 10%
Emerson Aug 1–3, 2019 1,033 (RV) ± 3.0% 52% 48%
Quinnipiac University May 29 – Jun 4, 2019 1,159 (RV) ± 3.4% 46% 44% 1% 6%
Emerson College Apr 25–28, 2019 799 (RV) ± 3.4% 54% 46%

Donald Trump vs. Tom Steyer

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Tom
Steyer (D)
Other Undecided
University of Texas at Tyler/Dallas News Jan 21–30, 2020 909 (LV) ± 3.24% 47% 36% 17%[by]

Donald Trump vs. Andrew Yang

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Andrew
Yang (D)
Other Undecided
YouGov/University of Texas/Texas Tribune Jan 31 – Feb 9, 2020 1,200 (RV) ± 2.83% 45% 43% 12%

Donald Trump vs. Cory Booker

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Cory
Booker (D)
Other Undecided
Univision Aug 31 – Sep 6, 2019 1,004 (RV) 41% 43% 16%

with Donald Trump and Julian Castro

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Julian
Castro (D)
Other Undecided
University of Texas at Tyler Nov 5–14, 2019 1,093 (RV) ± 3.0% 45% 34% 21%
University of Texas/Texas Tribune Oct 18–27, 2019 1,200 (RV) ± 2.8% 46% 33% 14%[bz] 7%
Univision Aug 31 – Sep 6, 2019 1,004 (RV) 41% 44% 16%
Emerson Aug 1–3, 2019 1,033 (RV) ± 3.0% 53% 47%
Quinnipiac University May 29 – Jun 4, 2019 1,159 (RV) ± 3.4% 46% 43% 1% 6%
Quinnipiac University Feb 20–25, 2019 1,222 (RV) ± 3.4% 46% 41% 2% 8%

with Donald Trump and Kamala Harris

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Kamala
Harris (D)
Other Undecided
University of Texas at Tyler Nov 5–14, 2019 1,093 (RV) ± 3.0% 46% 33% - 21%
University of Texas at Tyler Sep 13–15, 2019 1,199 (RV) ± 2.8% 39% 32% 19% 10%
Univision Aug 31 – Sep 6, 2019 1,004 (RV) 44% 45% 11%
Emerson Aug 1–3, 2019 1,033 (RV) ± 3.0% 54% 46%
Quinnipiac University May 29 – Jun 4, 2019 1,159 (RV) ± 3.4% 47% 43% 1% 6%
Emerson College Apr 25–28, 2019 799 (RV) ± 3.4% 54% 46%
Quinnipiac University Feb 20–25, 2019 1,222 (RV) ± 3.4% 48% 41% 2% 5%
Public Policy Polling (D)[O] Feb 13–14, 2019 743 (RV) ± 3.6% 49% 40% 11%

with Donald Trump and Beto O'Rourke

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Beto
O'Rourke (D)
Other Undecided
University of Texas/ Texas Tribune Oct 18–27, 2019 1,200 (RV) ± 2.8% 47% 41% 7%[ca] 5%
University of Texas at Tyler Sep 13–15, 2019 1,199 (RV) ± 2.8% 40% 42% 11% 8%
Emerson Aug 1–3, 2019 1,033 (RV) ± 3.0% 52% 48%
Quinnipiac University May 29 – Jun 4, 2019 1,159 (RV) ± 3.4% 48% 45% 1% 3%
Emerson College Apr 25–28, 2019 799 (RV) ± 3.4% 50% 50%
Quinnipiac University Feb 20–25, 2019 1,222 (RV) ± 3.4% 47% 46% 1% 4%
Atlantic Media & Research (R)[P] Jan 5–11, 2019 504 (LV) ± 4.4% 52% 39%
Hypothetical polling

with Donald Trump and Mark Cuban

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Mark
Cuban (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling Dec 2017 – (V)[cb] 44% 47%

with Donald Trump and a Generic Democrat

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Generic
Democrat (D)
Undecided
Univision Aug 31 – Sep 6, 2019 1,004 (RV) 42% 47% 11%

with Donald Trump and a generic Opponent

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Generic
Opponent
Undecided
University of Texas/Texas Tribune[7] Apr 10–19, 2020 1,200 (RV) ± 2.8% 49% 50%[cc] 7%
University of Texas/Texas Tribune Jan 31 – Feb 9, 2020 1,200 (RV) ± 2.83% 48% 52%[cd]
University of Texas/Texas Tribune Oct 18–27, 2019 1,200 (RV) ± 2.83% 48% 52%[ce]
Quinnipiac Sep 4–9, 2019 1,410 (RV) ± 3.1% 35% 48%[cf] 17%[cg]
University of Texas/Texas Tribune May 31–Jun 9, 2019 1,200 (RV) ± 2.83% 50% 50%[ch]
University of Texas/Texas Tribune Feb 15–24, 2019 1,200 (RV) ± 2.83% 49% 51%[ci]

Voting access

Matters of election administration and ease of voting during an ongoing pandemic were heavily litigated in Texas in 2020. Harris County, the most populous one in Texas, spearheaded a number of innovative approaches and was the focal point of several legal challenges.

For the 2020 elections, Harris County Commissioners approved a budget of $33 million, higher than the $4 million budget for the 2016 United States presidential election. Chris Hollins, the interim Harris County Clerk and Texas Democratic Party finance vice chairperson, created a 23-point voting access expansion program, which included promotion of voting by mail, expansion of early voting accessibility, and drive-through voting, an innovation to facilitate voting while at the same time mitigating infection risks during the COVID-19 pandemic.[32] On October 29 several voting locations in Harris County were available for 24 hours to accommodate voters whose work shifts or other responsibilities overlapped with regular voting hours.[33]

Local Republican activists and officials challenged the voter-friendly measures in multiple legal actions, with mixed success. Several lawsuits complained about early voting and about Harris County providing multiple drop-off locations for absentee ballots. Responding to pressure from within his own party, Governor Abbott then restricted the number of drop-offs to a single one per county regardless of population and size, forcing Harris County to close eleven sites at county clerk branch offices called annexes.[34]

When a legal action challenging drive-through voting was dismissed,[32] the Republican Party in Texas sought relief in the Texas Supreme Court (SCOTX), which denied the petition because the case had not been brought promptly.[35] The first lawsuit was filed on October 15 even though Harris County had obtained prior clearance from the Office of the Texas Secretary of State (which is led a Republican appointed by Republican Governor Abbott) and had tested drive-in voting in the primary runoff elections in July without complaint.[36][37] SCOTX denied the petition and drive-thru voting continued.[38] On October 29 another action was filed seeking to invalidate drive-thru ballots based on the contention that this was a form of curbside voting that the Texas Election Code authorized only for voters with disabilities.[39] In an order issued on Sunday, November 1, the Texas Supreme Court denied the petition challenging the legality of drive-through voting, but did not resolve the legal argument one way or the other.[40][41] The next day, U.S. District Judge Andrew Hanen heard an almost identical case by the same group of plaintiff, which included Republican candidates, on an emergency basis. Slate described the judge as "one of the most notoriously partisan conservatives in the federal judiciary."[37] Hanen ruled against the plaintiffs, dismissing their action for lack of standing, with the result that drive-in voting remained in effect. The Plaintiffs, which included Steve Toth,[42] immediately sought emergency relief in the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals, but were unsuccessful.[43] Hollins nevertheless cancelled drive-thru voting in tent structures on the eve of Election Day.[44] He reversed himself out of concern that ballots cast there might be declared invalid, should the Fifth Circuit disagree with Judge Hanen on the standing issue and agree with Judge Hanen that tents were not permissible polling places on Election Day.[45]

Some counties also set up an online system that allowed voters to check for wait times at early voting centers and make their voting plans accordingly.[46]

On October 5, Texas Governor Greg Abbott issued a proclamation under the Texas Disaster Act limiting each county to a single drop-off location for mail ballots.[47] Federal judge Robert Pitman blocked Abbott's order on October 9.[48] The next day, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton appealed to the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals for an emergency stay of Pitman's ruling, which a three-judge motion panel temporarily granted on an interim basis, pending consideration of the appeal on the merits.[49] A Texas state judge also blocked Abbott's order on October 15, and a state appeals court upheld that decision on October 23. Attorney General Ken Paxton then sought emergency relief from the Texas Supreme Court, which backed the Governor and lifting the temporary injunction in an October 27 decision with no dissent.[50][51][52]

Turnout

Voter registration in Texas ended on October 5, and the Secretary of State reported a registration total of 16,955,519 voters, an increase of 1,854,432 since the 2016 elections, and 1.2 million of which had occurred after the 2018 midterm elections.

Early voting began on October 13. Over one million ballots were received on that day,[53] and by October 15 fewer than two million ballots were counted.[54] The following day the count was 2.6 million, which meant 15.51% of the state's registered voters had already voted.[55]

For the whole early voting period, votes in the age 18-29 range were higher than the total of that age group of 2016, with 1.3 million votes.[56]

On October 13, Dallas County recorded 59,905 ballots and Tarrant County recorded 42,428 ballots, with the former setting a record for that county and the latter below the 2016 count on the first day of early voting.[57]

On October 13, Harris County had an unofficial tally of 128,186 ballots received, the highest ever first day early voting count and over 5% of the county's registered voters.[58] By the second day the count was 287,931, 11% of the county's registered voters.[59] On the third day over 100,000 ballots were counted, and in those three days 387,000 ballots were counted, with 44,000 of them issued through the mail.[60] On the fourth day a similar amount of ballots were past, which meant the number of ballots cast total were about 500,000.[61] On October 23 there were 1 million ballots cast from Harris County.[62]

On October 13, Travis County received 35,873 ballots,[63] while it received 38,119 the following day,[64] and by 3 P.M. on Thursday over 26,000.[65] When voting closed on Thursday the percentage of Travis County voters who had already voted was 16.44%. On Friday 41,328 additional votes were counted.[55] Williamson County by the third day had a 64,891 votes out of 376,931 people registered to vote, which meant its turnout was already 17.25%.[66]

On October 13, Bexar County recorded 78,000 votes, with over 45,000 by mail and the remainder in person.[53]

On October 13, El Paso County recorded fewer than 34,000 votes.[53]

By October 19, Texas voters cast 50% of the votes cast in the 2016 presidential election in Texas. By October 22, 65.5% of 2016 votes were cast (or 34.65% of registered voters). By October 25, over 80% of 2016 votes were cast (or 43% of registered voters),[67] and by October 29, 50% of registered voters had cast ballots by early in-person and absentee ballot. By October 30, statewide voter turnout, as well as turnout in Harris County, had already surpassed the total of 2016.[68]

General results

2020 United States presidential election in Texas[69]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Donald Trump
Mike Pence
5,890,347 52.06% -0.17%
Democratic Joe Biden
Kamala Harris
5,259,126 46.48% +3.24%
Libertarian Jo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen
126,243 1.12% -2.04%
Green Howie Hawkins
Angela Walker
33,396 0.30% -0.50%
Write-in 5,944 0.04% -0.53%
Total votes 11,315,056 100.00%

Counties that swung from Democratic to Republican

Counties that swung from Republican to Democratic

Dianne Solis et al of The Dallas Morning News stated that according to polls, "Democrat Joe Biden overwhelmingly won the Latino vote in Texas' urban areas".[70]

In the Rio Grande Valley, which historically votes Democrat, Biden's lead narrowed from the previous election.[70]

See also

Notes

Partisan clients
  1. ^ Poll sponsored by the Texas arm of the party which nominated Biden prior to this poll's sampling period
  2. ^ The Blue Texas PAC exclusively supports Democratic candidates
  3. ^ The Human Rights Campaign endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period
  4. ^ Poll sponsored by the Texas arm of the party which nominated Biden prior to this poll's sampling period
  5. ^ Poll sponsored by the Defend Students Action Fund.
  6. ^ Giffords' founder, Gabby Giffords, endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period
  7. ^ The Consumer Energy Alliance is a pro-Keystone XL lobbying group
  8. ^ The Texas Democratic Party exclusively supports Democratic candidates
  9. ^ Poll sponsored by Chrysta Castañeda's campaign
  10. ^ Size of "extremely likely to vote" sample not yet released
  11. ^ This poll's sponsor is the American Principles Project, a 501(c)(4) organization that supports the Republican Party.
  12. ^ Poll sponsored by Progress Texas, an organisation promoting progressive policies
  13. ^ Poll sponsored by the Texas Democratic Party
  14. ^ a b c d By the time of this poll, Data for Progress, which has worked with both the Sanders and Warren campaigns, had endorsed Warren
  15. ^ a b Poll sponsored by Democracy Toolbox
  16. ^ Poll sponsored by Courageous Conservatives PAC
Samples
  1. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  4. ^ "Other candidate or write-in" with 0%
  5. ^ With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  6. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  7. ^ Standard VI response
  8. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  9. ^ Results generated with high Democratic turnout model
  10. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  11. ^ Results generated with high Republican turnout model
  12. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  13. ^ "Another candidate" with no voters
  14. ^ "Someone else" and would not vote with 1%
  15. ^ Includes "Refused"
  16. ^ "Someone else" with 3%
  17. ^ With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  18. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
  19. ^ With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  20. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  21. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
  22. ^ Standard IV response
  23. ^ "Another candidate" with 1%
  24. ^ With only Biden, Trump and "another candidate" as options
  25. ^ "Another candidate" with 2%
  26. ^ "Someone else" and would not vote with 0%
  27. ^ Includes "Refused"
  28. ^ "Someone else/third party" with 2%
  29. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  30. ^ With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  31. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  32. ^ "Refused" with 0%
  33. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous and subsequent Morning Consult polls, but more information available regarding sample size
  34. ^ "Another party candidate" with 2%
  35. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  36. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  37. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous and subsequent Morning Consult polls, but more information available regarding sample size
  38. ^ Not yet released
  39. ^ "Someone else" with 4%; would not vote with 3%
  40. ^ Not yet released
  41. ^ "Someone else/third party" with 4%; would not vote with 0%
  42. ^ Not yet released
  43. ^ Not yet released
  44. ^ "Other" with 4%; would not vote with 1%
  45. ^ Not yet released
  46. ^ Not yet released
  47. ^ "Someone else" and would not vote with 3%
  48. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  49. ^ Not yet released
  50. ^ Not yet released
  51. ^ Including voters who lean towards a given candidate
  52. ^ Other with 1%; neither with 2%
  53. ^ "Neither-other" with 10%
  54. ^ Would not vote with 3%
  55. ^ Other with 0%; neither with 2%
  56. ^ "Someone else" with 9%
  57. ^ Including voters who lean towards a given candidate
  58. ^ Other with 0%; neither with 3%
  59. ^ "Neither-other" with 12%
  60. ^ Would not vote with 3%
  61. ^ Other with 1%; neither with 3%
  62. ^ "Someone else" with 9%
  63. ^ Including voters who lean towards a given candidate
  64. ^ Other with 0%; neither with 2%
  65. ^ "Neither-other" with 12%
  66. ^ Would not vote with 3%
  67. ^ Other with 1%; neither with 2%
  68. ^ "Someone else" with 10%
  69. ^ Other with 0%; neither with 3%
  70. ^ "Neither-other" with 9%
  71. ^ Other with 0%; neither with 2%
  72. ^ "Neither-other" with 16%
  73. ^ Other with 0%; neither with 2%
  74. ^ "Neither-other" with 15%
  75. ^ Would not vote with 4%
  76. ^ Other with 0%; neither with 2%
  77. ^ "Neither-other" with 17%
  78. ^ "Someone else" with 14%
  79. ^ "Someone else" with 7%
  80. ^ Not yet released
  81. ^ Listed as the combination of these responses: "Definitely or probably would not vote to re-elect Donald Trump"
  82. ^ Listed as the combination of these responses: "Definitely or probably would not vote to re-elect Donald Trump"
  83. ^ Listed as the combination of these responses: "Definitely or probably would not vote to re-elect Donald Trump"
  84. ^ "Would definitely not vote for Trump" with 48%
  85. ^ "Would consider voting for Trump" with 14%; "Don't know/no answer" with 3%
  86. ^ Listed as the combination of these responses: "Definitely or probably would not vote to re-elect Donald Trump"
  87. ^ Listed as the combination of these responses: "Definitely or probably would not vote to re-elect Donald Trump"

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Further reading

External links

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