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2020 United States presidential election in Tennessee

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

2020 United States presidential election in Tennessee

← 2016 November 3, 2020 2024 →
Turnout%
Votes counted
98%
as of Nov. 14, 2020, 11:38 AM EST[1]
 
Donald Trump official portrait (cropped).jpg
Joe Biden 2013.jpg
Nominee Donald Trump Joe Biden
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Florida Delaware
Running mate Mike Pence Kamala Harris
Projected electoral vote 11 0
Popular vote 1,849,820 1,139,376
Percentage 60.7% 37.4%

Tennessee Presidential Election Results 2020.svg
Preliminary County Results

President before election

Donald Trump
Republican

Elected President

Joe Biden
Democratic

The 2020 United States presidential election in Tennessee was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[2] Tennessee voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Tennessee has 11 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[3]

Trump won Tennessee with 60.7% of the vote, almost tied with his 60.72% vote share in 2016. Despite this, Biden got 37.4% of the vote, three points better than Hillary Clinton. Prior to the election, all 17 news organizations considered this a state Trump would win, or a safe red state. The Volunteer State has not supported a Democrat since 1996. Biden won the same counties as Clinton did: urban Shelby and Davidson counties and majority-Black Haywood County. In addition, Trump performed somewhat better than polls anticipated, as they had Trump leading Biden by 55%–41%.[4]

Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Trump's strength in Tennessee came from a 69% showing among Southern whites, who made up 84% of the voters, much more than other Southern states. Similarly, Trump carried white born-again/Evangelical Christians by 86%–12%. The only strength Biden showed was 88% of black voters. 65% of voters opposed removing Confederate statues from public places in Tennessee, and these voters backed Trump by 83%–15%.[5]

Primary elections

Republican primary

The Republican primary was on March 3, 2020. Former Tennessee senator Bob Corker was considered a potential primary opponent for Trump.[6]

Incumbent United States President Donald Trump was challenged by two candidates: former congressman Joe Walsh of Illinois, and former governor Bill Weld of Massachusetts.[7] Walsh withdrew from the race prior to the primary. There was also an uncommitted option on the ballot. Trump won the state in a landslide victory over Walsh and Weld.

2020 Tennessee Republican primary[8]
Candidate Votes % Estimated
delegates
Donald Trump 384,266 96.47 58
Joe Walsh (withdrawn) 4,178 1.05 0
Bill Weld 3,922 0.98 0
Uncommitted 5,948 1.49 0
Total 398,314 100% 58

Democratic primary

The Democratic primary was on March 3, 2020. Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, and former Vice President Joe Biden were among the major declared candidates.[9][10]

Popular vote share by county   Biden—30–40%   Biden—40–50%   Biden—50–60%   Biden—60–70%   Sanders—30–40%
Popular vote share by county
  Biden—30–40%
  Biden—40–50%
  Biden—50–60%
  Biden—60–70%
  Sanders—30–40%
2020 Tennessee Democratic presidential primary[11][12]
Candidate Votes % Delegates[13]
Joe Biden 215,390 41.72 36
Bernie Sanders 129,168 25.02 22
Michael Bloomberg 79,789 15.46 5
Elizabeth Warren 53,732 10.41 1
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn†) 17,102 3.31 0
Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn†) 10,671 2.07 0
Tulsi Gabbard 2,278 0.44 0
Tom Steyer (withdrawn†) 1,932 0.37 0
Michael Bennet (withdrawn) 1,650 0.32 0
Andrew Yang (withdrawn) 1,097 0.21 0
Cory Booker (withdrawn) 953 0.18 0
Marianne Williamson (withdrawn) 498 0.10 0
John Delaney (withdrawn) 378 0.07 0
Julian Castro (withdrawn) 239 0.05 0
Deval Patrick (withdrawn) 182 0.04 0
Uncommitted 1,191 0.23 0
Total 516,250 100% 64
†Candidate withdrew after early voting started.

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[14] Safe R September 10, 2020
Inside Elections[15] Safe R September 4, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[16] Safe R July 14, 2020
Politico[17] Safe R September 8, 2020
RCP[18] Safe R August 3, 2020
Niskanen[19] Safe R July 26, 2020
CNN[20] Safe R August 3, 2020
The Economist[21] Safe R September 2, 2020
CBS News[22] Likely R August 16, 2020
270towin[23] Safe R August 2, 2020
ABC News[24] Safe R July 31, 2020
NPR[25] Likely R August 3, 2020
NBC News[26] Safe R August 6, 2020
538[27] Safe R September 9, 2020

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Donald
Trump

Republican
Other/
Undecided
[a]
Margin
RealClearPolitics Jan 28, 2020 – May 22, 2020 September 15, 2020 39.0% 53.0% 8.0% Trump +14.0
FiveThirtyEight until October 27, 2020 October 28, 2020 41.0% 54.4% 4.6% Trump +13.4
Average 40.0% 53.7% 6.3% Trump +13.7

Polls

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump

Republican
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Jo
Jorgensen

Libertarian
Howie
Hawkins

Green
Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 3,342 (LV) ± 2.5% 54%[c] 45% - -
Swayable Oct 23 – Nov 1, 2020 485 (LV) ± 5.9% 58% 41% 1% 0%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 1–28, 2020 5,099 (LV) 56% 42% - -
SurveyMonkey/Axios Sep 1–30, 2020 2,329 (LV) 58% 41% - - 2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Aug 1–31, 2020 1,796 (LV) 59% 40% - - 1%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jul 1–31, 2020 2,481 (LV) 61% 38% - - 2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jun 8–30, 2020 1,092 (LV) 61% 37% - - 2%
SSRS/Vanderbilt University May 5–22, 2020 1,000 (RV) ± 3.8% 51% 42% - - 5%[d] 2%
East Tennessee State University Apr 22 – May 1, 2020 536 (LV) 53% 36% - - 6% 5%
Mason-Dixon Jan 28–30, 2020 625 (RV) ± 4.0% 55% 39% - - 6%
Former candidates

Donald Trump vs. Michael Bloomberg

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Michael
Bloomberg (D)
Undecided
Mason-Dixon Jan 28–30, 2020 625 (RV) ± 4.0% 54% 39% 7%

Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Pete
Buttigieg (D)
Undecided
Mason-Dixon Jan 28–30, 2020 625 (RV) ± 4.0% 55% 38% 7%

Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Bernie
Sanders (D)
Undecided
Mason-Dixon Jan 28–30, 2020 625 (RV) ± 4.0% 57% 37% 6%

Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Elizabeth
Warren (D)
Undecided
Mason-Dixon Jan 28–30, 2020 625 (RV) ± 4.0% 57% 36% 7%

Results

2020 United States presidential election in Tennessee[28]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Donald Trump
Mike Pence
Democratic Joe Biden
Kamala Harris
Libertarian Jo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen
Green Howie Hawkins
Angela Walker
Constitution Don Blankenship
William Mohr
Alliance Rocky De La Fuente
Darcy Richardson
Socialism and Liberation Gloria La Riva
Sunil Freeman
Socialist Workers Alyson Kennedy
Malcolm Jarrett
Independent Kanye West
Michelle Tidball
Write-in
Total votes

See also

Notes

  1. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. ^ a b c d e Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  4. ^ "Someone else" and would not vote with 2%; "refused" with 1%

References

  1. ^ "Tennessee Election Results 2020". The New York Times. Retrieved November 15, 2020.
  2. ^ Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  3. ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  4. ^ Mehta, Aaron Bycoffe, Ritchie King and Dhrumil (June 28, 2018). "Tennessee President: general election Polls". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved November 15, 2020.
  5. ^ "Tennessee Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 17, 2020.
  6. ^ Mattise, Jonathan (December 20, 2018). "Trump foil, retiring GOP Sen. Corker: 'no idea' what's next". Associated Press. Retrieved December 26, 2018.
  7. ^ Flessner, Dave (December 3, 2019). "16 Democrats and 3 Republicans on presidential primary ballot in Tennessee". Chattanooga Times Free Press. Retrieved December 4, 2019.
  8. ^ "March 3, 2020 Republican Presidential Preference Primary" (PDF). Tennessee Secretary of State. Retrieved April 3, 2020.
  9. ^ Taylor, Kate (February 9, 2019). "Elizabeth Warren Formally Announces 2020 Presidential Bid in Lawrence, Mass". The New York Times. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
  10. ^ Herndon, Astead W.; Burns, Alexander (December 31, 2018). "Elizabeth Warren Announces Iowa Trip as She Starts Running for President in 2020". The New York Times. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  11. ^ "March 3, 2020 Democratic Presidential Preference Primary" (PDF). Tennessee Secretary of State. Retrieved April 3, 2020.
  12. ^ "Tennessee Election Results 2020". PBS NewsHour. Retrieved March 7, 2020.
  13. ^ "2020 Presidential Primaries, Caucuses, and Conventions: Tennessee Democrat". The Green Papers. Retrieved July 4, 2020.
  14. ^ "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  15. ^ "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  16. ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  17. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
  18. ^ "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
  19. ^ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020
  20. ^ David Chalian; Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
  21. ^ "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
  22. ^ "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
  23. ^ "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
  24. ^ "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
  25. ^ "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
  26. ^ "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
  27. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
  28. ^ "Tennessee 2020 General Election". Green Papers. Retrieved September 17, 2020.

External links

This page was last edited on 25 November 2020, at 04:21
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