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2020 United States presidential election in South Carolina

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

2020 United States presidential election in South Carolina

← 2016 November 3, 2020 2024 →
Turnout72.1%[1] Increase
 
Donald Trump official portrait (cropped).jpg
Joe Biden 2013.jpg
Nominee Donald Trump Joe Biden
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Florida Delaware
Running mate Mike Pence Kamala Harris
Electoral vote 9 0
Popular vote 1,385,103 1,091,541
Percentage 55.11% 43.43%

South Carolina Presidential Election Results 2020.svg
County Results

President before election

Donald Trump
Republican

Elected President

Joe Biden
Democratic

The 2020 United States presidential election in South Carolina was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[2] South Carolina voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. South Carolina has nine electoral votes in the Electoral College.[3]

Trump carried South Carolina by a margin of 11.68%, down from his 14.27% four years earlier. Prior to this election, all 12 news organizations considered this a state Trump would win, or a red state.

Trump performed somewhat better than polls anticipated, as aggregate polls averaged him only 7 points ahead of Biden. In addition, he flipped Clarendon County for the first time since 1972 and Dillon County for the first time since 1988.[citation needed] Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Trump's strength in South Carolina came from white, born-again/Evangelical Christians, who supported Trump by 87%–9%. South Carolina is part of the Bible Belt, which extends across the Southern United States, and has been tethered to the Republican Party since Richard Nixon's southern strategy. As is the case in many Southern states, there was a stark racial divide in voting for this election: whites supported Trump by 69%–29%, while African-Americans supported Biden by 92%–7%.[4]

Primary elections

Canceled Republican primary

On September 7, 2019, the South Carolina Republican Party became one of several state GOP parties to officially cancel their respective primaries and caucuses.[5] Donald Trump's re-election campaign and GOP officials have cited the fact that Republicans canceled several state primaries when George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush sought a second term in 1992 and 2004, respectively; and Democrats scrapped some of their primaries when Bill Clinton and Barack Obama were seeking reelection in 1996 and 2012, respectively.[6][7]

In response to the cancellation, former U.S. Representative Bob Inglis and another South Carolina Republican voter filed a lawsuit against the South Carolina Republican Party on grounds that it denied their right to vote. On December 11, 2019, a state court judge dismissed the lawsuit, writing in his opinion that the law "does not give plaintiffs a legal right to presidential preference primary".[8] Thus at the South Carolina State Republican Convention in May 2020, the state party will formally bind all 50 of its national pledged delegates to Trump.[9]

Democratic primary

The South Carolina Democratic primary was held on February 29, 2020.

2020 South Carolina Democratic presidential primary[10]
Candidate Votes % Delegates[a]
Joe Biden 262,336 48.65 39
Bernie Sanders 106,605 19.77 15
Tom Steyer 61,140 11.34 0
Pete Buttigieg 44,217 8.20 0
Elizabeth Warren 38,120 7.07 0
Amy Klobuchar 16,900 3.13 0
Tulsi Gabbard 6,813 1.26 0
Andrew Yang (withdrawn) 1,069 0.20 0
Michael Bennet (withdrawn) 765 0.14 0
Cory Booker (withdrawn) 658 0.12 0
John Delaney (withdrawn) 352 0.07 0
Deval Patrick (withdrawn) 288 0.05 0
Total 539,263 100% 54

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[12] Likely R September 10, 2020
Inside Elections[13] Likely R September 4, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[14] Likely R July 14, 2020
Politico[15] Safe R September 8, 2020
RCP[16] Lean R August 3, 2020
Niskanen[17] Safe R July 26, 2020
CNN[18] Safe R August 3, 2020
The Economist[19] Likely R September 2, 2020
CBS News[20] Likely R August 16, 2020
270towin[21] Likely R August 2, 2020
ABC News[22] Safe R July 31, 2020
NPR[23] Likely R August 3, 2020
NBC News[24] Likely R August 6, 2020
538[25] Likely R September 9, 2020

Polling

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Donald
Trump

Republican
Other/
Undecided
[b]
Margin
270 to Win October 15, 2020 – November 2, 2020 November 3, 2020 43.3% 50.3% 6.4% Trump +7.0
FiveThirtyEight until November 2, 2020 November 3, 2020 44.5% 51.6% 3.9% Trump +7.1
Average 43.9% 51.0% 5.1% Trump +7.1

Polls

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump

Republican
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Jo
Jorgensen

Libertarian
Howie
Hawkins

Green
Other Undecided
Optimus Oct 31 – Nov 2, 2020 817 (LV) ± 3.9% 51% 39% 2%[d] 8%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 2,485 (LV) ± 3% 56%[e] 42%
Data For Progress Oct 27 – Nov 1, 2020 1,121 (LV) ± 2.9% 53% 44% 2% 0% 0%[f]
Swayable Oct 23 – Nov 1, 2020 426 (LV) ± 7.4% 50% 49% 1% 0%
Morning Consult Oct 22–31, 2020 904 (LV) ± 3% 51% 45%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 1–28, 2020 4,725 (LV) 54% 44%
Data for Progress Oct 22–27, 2020 1,196 (LV) ± 2.8% 50% 44% 1% 0% 4%
Starboard Communications Oct 26, 2020 800 (LV) 51% 44% 5%
East Carolina University Oct 24–25, 2020 763 (LV) ± 4.1% 52% 44% 3%[g] 1%
Morning Consult Oct 11–20, 2020 926 (LV) ± 3.2% 51% 45%
New York Times/Siena College[1] Oct 9–14, 2020 605 (LV) ± 4.5% 49% 41% 2% 1% 1%[h] 6%[i]
Data for Progress Oct 8–11, 2020 801 (LV) ± 3.5% 52% 43% 1% 1% 4%
Morning Consult Oct 2–11, 2020 903 (LV) ± 3% 54% 42%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Sep 1–30, 2020 1,833 (LV) 53% 45% 2%
GBAO Strategies/DSCC[A] Sep 24–28, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 49% 44%
Data for Progress (D) Sep 23–28, 2020 824 (LV) ± 3.4% 47%[j] 43% 1% 1% 8%
50%[k] 45% 5%
Quinnipiac University Sep 23–27, 2020 1,123 (LV) ± 2.9% 48% 47% 1%[l] 4%
YouGov/CBS Sep 22–25, 2020 1,080 (LV) ± 3.8% 52% 42% 2%[m] 4%
Morning Consult Sep 11–20, 2020 764 (LV) ± (3% – 4%) 50%[n] 44%
Quinnipiac University Sep 10–14, 2020 969 (LV) ± 3.2% 51% 45% 0%[o] 4%
Morning Consult Sep 2–11, 2020 ~764 (LV) ± (3%–4%) 51% 44%
Morning Consult Aug 23 – Sep 1, 2020 ~764 (LV) ± (3%–4%) 52% 42%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Aug 1–31, 2020 1,326 (LV) 53% 45% 2%
Morning Consult Aug 13–22, 2020 ~764 (LV) ± (3%–4%) 51% 43%
Morning Consult Aug 3–12, 2020 ~764 (LV) ± (3%–4%) 50% 43%
Quinnipiac University Jul 30 – Aug 3, 2020 914 (RV) ± 3.2% 47% 42% 4%[p] 7%
Morning Consult Jul 24 – Aug 2, 2020 741 (LV) ± 4.0% 49%[q] 44% 3%[r] 4%
Morning Consult Jul 23 – Aug 1, 2020 ~764 (LV) ± (3%–4%) 48% 45%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jul 1–31, 2020 1,700 (LV) 53% 44% 2%
Morning Consult Jul 13–22, 2020 ~764 (LV) ± (3%–4%) 50% 43%
ALG Research/Lindsey Must Go[B] Jul 15–20, 2020 591 (LV) 50% 45% 1% 4%
Gravis Marketing[2] Jul 17, 2020 604 (LV) ± 4.0% 50% 46%
brilliant corners Research & Strategies/Jaime Harrison[C] Jul 13–19, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 50% 43%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jun 8–30, 2020 863 (LV) 52% 47% 2%
Civiqs/Daily Kos May 23–26, 2020 591 (RV) ± 4.5% 52% 42% 5%[s] 1%
AtlasIntel Feb 25–28, 2020 1,100 (RV) ± 3.0% 48% 42% 11%
East Carolina University Jan 31 – Feb 2, 2020 1,756 (RV) ± 2.7% 52% 40% 8%
Change Research Jun 11–14, 2019 2,312 (RV) ± 2.0% 54% 38% 3%[t] 1%[u]
Emerson College Feb 28 – Mar 2, 2019 755 (RV) ± 3.5% 52% 48%
Former candidates

Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Bernie
Sanders (D)
Other Undecided
AtlasIntel Feb 25–28, 2020 1,100 (RV) ± 3.0% 48% 42% 9%
East Carolina University Jan 31 – Feb 2, 2020 1,756 (RV) ± 2.7% 52% 40% 8%
Change Research Jun 11–14, 2019 2,312 (RV) ± 2.0% 54% 34% 6%[v]
Emerson College Feb 28 – Mar 2, 2019 755 (RV) ± 3.5% 54% 46%

Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Elizabeth
Warren (D)
Undecided
AtlasIntel Feb 25–28, 2020 1,100 (RV) ± 3.0% 49% 41% 10%
East Carolina University Jan 31 – Feb 2, 2020 1,756 (RV) ± 2.7% 54% 36% 10%
Emerson College Feb 28 – Mar 2, 2019 755 (RV) ± 3.5% 54% 46%

Donald Trump vs. Michael Bloomberg

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Michael
Bloomberg (D)
Undecided
East Carolina University Jan 31 – Feb 2, 2020 1,756 (RV) ± 2.7% 53% 33% 13%

Donald Trump vs. Amy Klobuchar

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Amy
Klobuchar (D)
Undecided
East Carolina University Jan 31 – Feb 2, 2020 1,756 (RV) ± 2.7% 52% 32% 15%
Emerson College Feb 28 – Mar 2, 2019 755 (RV) ± 3.5% 56% 44%

Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Pete
Buttigieg (D)
Undecided
AtlasIntel Feb 25–28, 2020 1,100 (RV) ± 3.0% 48% 37% 15%
East Carolina University Jan 31 – Feb 2, 2020 1,756 (RV) ± 2.7% 52% 34% 13%

Donald Trump vs. Tom Steyer

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Tom
Steyer (D)
Undecided
East Carolina University Jan 31 – Feb 2, 2020 1,756 (RV) ± 2.7% 52% 39% 9%

Donald Trump vs. Andrew Yang

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Andrew
Yang (D)
Undecided
East Carolina University Jan 31 – Feb 2, 2020 1,756 (RV) ± 2.7% 52% 34% 14%

Donald Trump vs. Cory Booker

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Cory
Booker (D)
Other Undecided
Change Research Jun 11–14, 2019 2,312 (RV) ± 2.0% 54% 32% 6%[v]
Emerson College Feb 28 – Mar 2, 2019 755 (RV) ± 3.5% 54% 46%

Donald Trump vs Kamala Harris

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Kamala
Harris (D)
Other Undecided
Change Research Jun 11–14, 2019 2,312 (RV) ± 2.0% 54% 33% 6%[v]
Emerson College Feb 28 – Mar 2, 2019 755 (RV) ± 3.5% 56% 44%

Donald Trump vs. Beto O'Rourke

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Beto
O'Rourke (D)
Undecided
Emerson College Feb 28 – Mar 2, 2019 755 (RV) ± 3.5% 56% 44%
Hypothetical polling

with Donald Trump, Bernie Sanders, and Howard Schultz

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Bernie
Sanders (D)
Howard
Schultz (I)
Undecided
Emerson College Feb 28 – Mar 2, 2019 755 (RV) ± 3.5% 51% 42% 7%

with Donald Trump, Elizabeth Warren, and Howard Schultz

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Elizabeth
Warren (D)
Howard
Schultz (I)
Undecided
Emerson College Feb 28 – Mar 2, 2019 755 (RV) ± 3.5% 53% 41% 7%

with Donald Trump, generic Democrat, and Howard Schultz

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Generic
Democrat
Howard
Schultz (I)
Undecided
WPA Intelligence (R)[D] Mar 11–13, 2019 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 46% 34% 3% 17%

Results

2020 United States presidential election in South Carolina[26]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Donald Trump
Mike Pence
1,385,103 55.11% +0.17%
Democratic Joe Biden
Kamala Harris
1,091,541 43.43% +2.76%
Libertarian Jo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen
27,916 1.11% -1.23%
Green Howie Hawkins
Angela Walker
6,907 0.27% -0.35%
Alliance Rocky De La Fuente
Darcy Richardson
1,862 0.07% N/A
Write-in
Total votes 2,513,329 100.00%

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

District Trump Biden Representative
1st 52% 46% Joe Cunningham
Nancy Mace
2nd 55% 44% Joe Wilson
3rd 69% 30% Jeff Duncan
4th 60% 39% William Timmons
5th 58% 41% Ralph Norman
6th 32% 67% Jim Clyburn
7th 59% 40% Tom Rice

See also

Notes

Partisan clients
  1. ^ The DSCC endorsed Jaime Harrison's campaign for the 2020 US Senate election in South Carolina before this poll's sampling period
  2. ^ This poll's sponsor, Lindsey Must Go, is a PAC opposing Lindsey Graham
  3. ^ This poll was sponsored by Harrison's campaign
  4. ^ Poll sponsored by Conservatives for Clean Energy
Additional candidates
  1. ^ This figure is an estimate from the Associated Press.[11]
  2. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  3. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  4. ^ "Refused" and "Third party candidate" with 1%
  5. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  6. ^ "Other candidate/write-in" with 0%
  7. ^ "Refused" with 2%; "Some other candidate" with 1%; Did/would not vote with 0%
  8. ^ would not vote with 1%; "Someone else" with 0%
  9. ^ Includes "Refused"
  10. ^ Standard VI response
  11. ^ If the only candidates were Biden and Trump
  12. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
  13. ^ "Someone else/third party" with 2%
  14. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  15. ^ "Someone else" with 0%
  16. ^ "Someone else" and would not vote with 2%
  17. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sample size and topline numbers
  18. ^ "Someone else" with 3%
  19. ^ "Someone else" with 5%
  20. ^ Generic
  21. ^ Generic
  22. ^ a b c Generic Libertarian with 4%; generic Green with 2%

References

  1. ^ "Turnout". Retrieved November 11, 2020.
  2. ^ Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  3. ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  4. ^ "South Carolina Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 17, 2020.
  5. ^ Kinnard, Meg (September 7, 2019). "Nevada, SC, Kansas GOP drop presidential nomination votes". AP NEWS.
  6. ^ Karni, Annie (September 6, 2019). "GOP plans to drop presidential primaries in 4 states to impede Trump challengers". Boston Globe. MSN. Retrieved September 7, 2019.
  7. ^ Steakin, Will; Karson, Kendall (September 6, 2019). "GOP considers canceling at least 3 GOP primaries and caucuses, Trump challengers outraged". ABC News. Retrieved September 7, 2019.
  8. ^ Neidig, Harper (December 11, 2019). "Judge throws out lawsuit against South Carolina GOP for canceling 2020 primary". The Hill.
  9. ^ "South Carolina Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved February 20, 2020.
  10. ^ "2020 Democratic Presidential Preference Primary Election Night Reporting: Official Results". SCVotes.org. March 2, 2020. Retrieved March 2, 2020.
  11. ^ "The Latest: Sanders says he is stronger candidate than Biden". AP NEWS. March 1, 2020.
  12. ^ "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  13. ^ "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  14. ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  15. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
  16. ^ "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
  17. ^ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020
  18. ^ David Chalian; Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
  19. ^ "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
  20. ^ "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
  21. ^ "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
  22. ^ "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
  23. ^ "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
  24. ^ "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
  25. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
  26. ^ "2020 Statewide General Election Election Night Reporting". enr-scvotes.org/. Retrieved November 11, 2020.

External links

This page was last edited on 1 March 2021, at 11:18
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