 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Turnout | 81.97% (of registered voters)  11.71 pp | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
 County Results
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Elections in Oregon |
|---|
 |
The 2020 United States presidential election in Oregon was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[1] Oregon voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Oregon has seven electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2] The state certified its election results on December 3.[3]
Oregon continued its tradition of voting for the Democratic candidate, with Biden winning the state by 16.1%, an increase from Hillary Clinton's 11% win in 2016. No Republican presidential candidate has won the state since Ronald Reagan in 1984. Biden flipped two counties Trump won in 2016: Marion County--home to the state capital of Salem, and Deschutes County--anchored by Bend. It was also the first time a Democrat won Deschutes since 1992, and only the fourth since 1952.[citation needed] Biden also became the first Democrat since Woodrow Wilson to win the presidency without winning Columbia County and Tillamook County.
As members of a West Coast state, voters in Oregon have a strong penchant for advancing the protection of civil liberties and individual freedoms, liberal values that have given Democrats a big edge in the state in recent years. Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Biden's strength in Oregon came from white liberals, with whites favoring him by 57%–40%. 33% of voters were secular and supported Biden by 80%.[4]
Primary elections
The primary elections were held on May 19, 2020.
Republican primary
Donald Trump ran unopposed and was declared the winner in the Republican primary,[5] and thus received all of Oregon's 28 delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention.[6]
| Candidate | Votes | % | Delegates[8] |
|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | 363,785 | 93.70 | 28 |
| write-ins | 24,461 | 6.30 | 0 |
| Total | 388,246 | 100.00 | 28 |
Democratic primary
Joe Biden was declared the winner in the Democratic primary.[5]
| Candidate | Votes | % | Delegates[10] |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Biden | 408,315 | 65.99 | 46 |
| Bernie Sanders (suspended) | 127,345 | 20.58 | 15 |
| Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn) | 59,355 | 9.59 | |
| Tulsi Gabbard (withdrawn) | 10,717 | 1.73 | |
| Write-ins | 12,979 | 2.10 | |
| Total | 618,711 | 100% | 61 |
Independent Party of Oregon primary
The Independent Party of Oregon cross-nominated Joe Biden after an online nonpartisan blanket primary.[11]
| Candidate | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|
| Joe Biden | 1,661 | 46.7 |
| Donald Trump | 1,389 | 39.1 |
| Bernie Sanders | 1,227 | 34.5 |
| Total | 4,277 | 100.00 |
| Candidate | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|
| Joe Biden | 392 | 55.13 |
| Donald Trump | 280 | 39.38 |
Pacific Green Party primary
Howie Hawkins won the Oregon Green Party primary.
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[12] | Solid D | November 3, 2020 |
| Inside Elections[13] | Solid D | November 3, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[14] | Safe D | November 3, 2020 |
| Politico[15] | Likely D | November 3, 2020 |
| RCP[16] | Lean D | November 3, 2020 |
| Niskanen[17] | Safe D | November 3, 2020 |
| CNN[18] | Solid D | November 3, 2020 |
| The Economist[19] | Safe D | November 3, 2020 |
| CBS News[20] | Likely D | November 3, 2020 |
| 270towin[21] | Safe D | November 3, 2020 |
| ABC News[22] | Solid D | November 3, 2020 |
| NPR[23] | Likely D | November 3, 2020 |
| NBC News[24] | Likely D | November 3, 2020 |
| 538[25] | Solid D | November 3, 2020 |
Polling
Graphical summary
Polls
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other/ Undecided [a] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 270 to Win | September 26 – October 17, 2020 | October 20, 2020 | 58.0% | 38.5% | 3.5% | Biden +19.5 |
| FiveThirtyEight | until October 27, 2020 | October 28, 2020 | 57.5% | 38.0% | 4.5% | Biden +19.5 |
| Average | 57.8% | 38.3% | 3.9% | Biden +19.5 | ||
Polls
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian |
Howie Hawkins Pacific Green |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 | 3,543 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 39%[c] | 59% | - | - | – | – |
| Swayable | Oct 23 – Nov 1, 2020 | 324 (LV) | ± 7.3% | 37% | 60% | 1% | 1% | – | – |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Oct 1–28, 2020 | 5,422 (LV) | – | 38% | 61% | - | - | – | – |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Sep 1–30, 2020 | 2,109 (LV) | – | 38% | 61% | - | - | – | 2% |
| Civiqs/Daily Kos | Sep 26–29, 2020 | 944 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 39% | 56% | - | - | 3%[d] | 2% |
| DHM Research | Sep 3–8, 2020 | 502 (LV) | ± 4% | 39% | 51% | - | - | 6%[e] | 4% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Aug 1–31, 2020 | 1,648 (LV) | – | 38% | 60% | - | - | – | 2% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Jul 1–31, 2020 | 1,890 (LV) | – | 38% | 61% | - | - | – | 1% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Jun 8–30, 2020 | 872 (LV) | – | 39% | 59% | - | - | – | 2% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Joe Biden Kamala Harris |
1,340,383 | 56.45% | +6.38% | |
| Republican | Donald Trump Mike Pence |
958,448 | 40.37% | +1.28% | |
| Libertarian | Jo Jorgensen Spike Cohen |
41,582 | 1.75% | -2.96% | |
| Pacific Green | Howie Hawkins Angela Walker |
11,831 | 0.50% | -2.00% | |
| Progressive | Dario Hunter Dawn Neptune Adams |
4,988 | 0.21% | N/A | |
| Write-in | 17,089 | 0.72% | N/A | ||
| Total votes | 2,374,321 | ||||
By congressional district
Biden won 4 out of 5 congressional districts in Oregon.
| District | Trump | Biden | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 34.1% | 63.3% | Suzanne Bonamici |
| 2nd | 55.6% | 42.1% | Cliff Bentz |
| 3rd | 23.5% | 74.3% | Earl Blumenauer |
| 4th | 46.7% | 50.7% | Peter DeFazio |
| 5th | 43.9% | 53.6% | Kurt Schrader |
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
Notes
- ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- ^ Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
- ^ "Someone else" with 3%
- ^ "Someone else" with 6%
See also
- United States presidential elections in Oregon
- 2020 United States presidential election
- 2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2020 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2020 United States elections
References
- ^ Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
- ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
- ^ "Oregon secretary of state certifies election results". kgw.com. Retrieved December 5, 2020.
- ^ "Oregon Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 17, 2020.
- ^ a b "Biden, Trump win presidential primaries in Oregon". Associated Press. KPTV. May 19, 2020.
- ^ "Oregon Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved May 19, 2020.
- ^ "Oregon Secretary of State". results.oregonvotes.gov. Oregon Secretary of State. Retrieved May 20, 2020.
- ^ "Delegate Tracker". interactives.ap.org. Associated Press. Retrieved May 20, 2020.
- ^ "May 19, 2020, Primary Election Abstract of Votes" (PDF). Oregon Secretary of State. Retrieved October 14, 2020.
- ^ "Delegate Tracker". interactives.ap.org. Associated Press. Retrieved May 20, 2020.
- ^ "RESULTS AND DATA | 2020 OREGON PRIMARY | Independent Party". Pers. Retrieved July 10, 2020.
- ^ "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
- ^ "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
- ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
- ^ "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
- ^ "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
- ^ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020
- ^ David Chalian; Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
- ^ "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
- ^ "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
- ^ "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
- ^ "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
- ^ "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
- ^ "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
- ^ "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
- ^ "November 2020 General Election Results" (PDF). Oregon Secretary of State. Retrieved December 6, 2020.
External links
- Government Documents Round Table of the American Library Association, "Oregon", Voting & Elections Toolkits
- "Oregon: Election Tools, Deadlines, Dates, Rules, and Links", Vote.org, Oakland, CA
- "League of Women Voters of Oregon". (State affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)
- Oregon at Ballotpedia
This page was last edited on 3 February 2021, at 22:13