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2020 United States presidential election in Ohio

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

2020 United States presidential election in Ohio

← 2016 November 3, 2020 2024 →
Turnout74%
 
Donald Trump official portrait (cropped).jpg
Joe Biden 2013.jpg
Nominee Donald Trump Joe Biden
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Florida Delaware
Running mate Mike Pence Kamala Harris
Electoral vote 18 0
Popular vote 3,154,834 2,679,165
Percentage 53.27% 45.24%

Ohio Presidential Election Results 2020.svg
County Results

President before election

Donald Trump
Republican

Elected President

Joe Biden
Democratic

The 2020 United States presidential election in Ohio was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[1] Ohio voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee—incumbent President Donald Trump and his running mate, Vice President Mike Pence—against the Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden and his running mate, California Senator Kamala Harris. Ohio has 18 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]

Republican Donald Trump won Ohio with 53.3% of the vote, while Biden received 45.2% of the vote. Trump won by nearly the same margin that he defeated Hillary Clinton by in 2016. This marked the first time that Ohio voted for the losing candidate since Richard Nixon in 1960, and also the second consecutive election in which the state voted over 10 points to the right of the nation as a whole, confirming the state's trend towards the Republicans. This is the first time since 1976 in which Ohio voted to the right of Texas, a state that last voted Democratic that year. Biden became the first Democrat to win the election without winning Ohio since John F. Kennedy.

Trump flipped Lorain and Mahoning counties, and Biden flipped Montgomery County.

Analysis

Ohio, a Midwestern U.S. state, has been considered one of the most competitive states in said region in the early 21st century. For example, it was a vital tipping-point state in the heavily contested 2004 election, and its projection in 2012 put Barack Obama over the top in the Electoral College. After Trump won Ohio in 2016 by an unexpectedly large margin of 8 points, it was initially considered out of reach for Democrats. However, Democrats contested it after polling pointed to a possibly close result in 2020.

From 1964 through 2016, the Buckeye State had been a reliable bellwether, voting for the winner of every presidential election. In 2016, however, it voted over ten points to the right of the nation as a whole, indicating that it might be on the cusp of losing its bellwether status.[3] And, indeed, in 2020, Ohio backed the losing nominee for the first time since it backed Richard Nixon in 1960, and, in so doing, voted over ten points to the right of the nation overall for the second time in a row, giving Trump a comfortable eight-point margin even as he lost nationally. This indicated that Ohio is likely following a similar path as Missouri, another former Midwestern bellwether state that has more recently become reliably red, had done in 2008 and 2012. In this election, Ohio weighed in at 12.5% more Republican than the nation as a whole, even voting more Republican than Texas, a Southern state that has been a GOP stronghold for four decades.

While Biden outperformed Hillary Clinton in the Midwest at large, Trump managed to flip two Ohio counties Republican: Lorain, a suburban county of Cleveland, and Mahoning, anchored by the car-making town of Youngstown. Trump hence became the first Republican presidential candidate to win Lorain County since Ronald Reagan in 1984, and the first to win Mahoning County since Richard Nixon in 1972. Biden became the first Democrat to win the White House without carrying Mahoning County since FDR in 1932,[4] and the first Democrat to win the White House without carrying Lorain County since Harry Truman in 1948. On the other hand, Biden won back Montgomery County, home to Dayton, a county which Trump had flipped in 2016.

This was the first presidential election in which a candidate received more than 3 million votes in Ohio.

Ohio is one of four entities (along with Iowa, Florida, and Maine's 2nd congressional district) that voted twice for Barack Obama and twice for Donald Trump. Ohio and Florida also voted twice for George W. Bush; and Ohio and Iowa also voted twice for Bill Clinton. All three voted twice for Ronald Reagan, Richard Nixon, and Dwight Eisenhower.

Primary elections

The primary elections were originally scheduled for March 17, 2020. However, on March 16, Ohio governor Mike DeWine recommended moving the primaries to June amid concerns over the COVID-19 pandemic. As the governor does not have the power to unilaterally make this decision, he went to court to request the delay.[5] However, a judge rejected the lawsuit.[6] Later in the day, the state's Health Director ordered the polls closed as a health emergency.[7] On March 17, the Ohio Supreme Court allowed the primaries to be postponed to June 2.[8] Then on March 25, in-person voting was canceled, and the deadline for mail-in voting was moved back to April 28.[9]

Republican primary

Incumbent President Donald Trump ran unopposed in the Republican primary, and thus received all of Ohio's 82 delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention.[10]

2020 Ohio Republican primary
Candidate Votes % Delegates
Donald Trump 682,845 100 82
Total 682,845 100.00 82

Democratic primary

2020 Ohio Democratic presidential primary[11]
Candidate Votes % Delegates[12]
Joe Biden 647,284 72.37 115
Bernie Sanders (suspended) 149,683 16.74 21
Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn) 30,985 3.46 0
Michael Bloomberg (withdrawn) 28,704 3.21 0
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn) 15,113 1.69 0
Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn) 11,899 1.33 0
Tulsi Gabbard (withdrawn) 4,560 0.51 0
Tom Steyer (withdrawn) 2,801 0.31 0
Michael Bennet (withdrawn) 2,030 0.23 0
Deval Patrick (withdrawn) 822 0.09 0
Andrew Yang (withdrawn)
(write-in)
502 0.06 0
Total 894,383 100% 136

Libertarian caucus

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[14] Tossup September 29, 2020
Inside Elections[15] Tossup October 16, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[16] Lean R November 2, 2020
Politico[17] Tossup October 11, 2020
RCP[18] Tossup September 14, 2020
Niskanen[19] Tossup September 15, 2020
CNN[20] Tossup August 3, 2020
The Economist[21] Tossup September 29, 2020
CBS News[22] Tossup August 16, 2020
270towin[23] Tossup September 25, 2020
ABC News[24] Tossup October 2, 2020
NPR[25] Tossup August 3, 2020
NBC News[26] Tossup August 6, 2020
538[27] Tossup September 24, 2020

Polling

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Donald
Trump

Republican
Other/
Undecided
[a]
Margin
270 to Win November 1–2 2020 November 3, 2020 46.7% 47.6% 5.7% Trump +0.9
Real Clear Politics October 28, 2020 – November 1, 2020 November 3, 2020 46.3% 47.3% 6.4% Trump +1.0
FiveThirtyEight until November 2, 2020 November 3, 2020 46.6% 47.5% 5.7% Trump +0.8
Average 47.0% 47.5% 5.9% Trump +0.9

June 1, 2020 – October 31, 2020

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump

Republican
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Jo
Jorgensen

Libertarian
Howie
Hawkins

Green
Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 20 – Nov 2 6,025 (LV) ± 2% 51%[c] 47%
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports Oct 31 – Nov 1 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 49% 45% 3%[d]
Research Co. Oct 31 – Nov 1 450 (LV) ± 4.6% 47% 47% 2%[e] 4%
Swayable Oct 27 – Nov 1 516 (LV) ± 5.8% 52% 47% 1% 0%
Civiqs/Daily Kos Oct 29 – Nov 1 1,136 (LV) ± 3% 49% 48% 1%[f] 1%
Quinnipiac University Oct 28 – Nov 1 1,440 (LV) ± 2.6% 43% 47% 2%[g] 8%
Survey Monkey/Tableau Oct 20 – Nov 1 5,305 (LV) ± 2.0% 50% 47%
Trafalgar Group Oct 30–31 1,041 (LV) ± 2.96% 49% 44%
Emerson College Oct 29–31 656 (LV) ± 3.8% 49%[h] 50% 2%[i]
Morning Consult Oct 22–31 2,179 (LV) ± 2% 49% 47%
AtlasIntel Oct 29–30 660 (LV) ± 4% 50% 47% 3%
Gravis Marketing Oct 27–28 613 (LV) ± 4% 49% 47% 4%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 1–28, 2020 8,089 (LV) 51% 47%
Quinnipiac University Oct 23–27 1,186 (LV) ± 2.9% 43% 48% 1%[j] 8%
Swayable Oct 23–26 440 (LV) ± 6.3% 55% 44% 1% 0%
Wick Surveys Oct 24–25 1,000 (LV) ± 3.1% 49% 47%
Citizen Data Oct 17–20 1,000 (LV) ± 3% 44% 43% 2% 1% 2% 8%
Fox News Oct 17–20 1,018 (LV) ± 3% 48% 45% 3% 1% 1%[k] 3%
Morning Consult Oct 11–20 2,271 (LV) ± 2.1% 49% 47%
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports Oct 18–19 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 47% 48% 2%[l] 4%
Quinnipiac University Oct 8–12 1,160 (LV) ± 2.9% 47% 48% 2%[m] 4%
Civiqs/Rust Belt Rising[A] Oct 8–11 586 (LV) ± 4.2% 50% 47% 2%[n] 1%
Morning Consult Oct 2–11 2,283 (LV) ± 2.1% 49% 46%
Baldwin Wallace University Sep 30 – Oct 8 1,009 (LV) ± 3.1% 47% 45% 1% 0% 1%[o] 5%
Siena College/NYT Upshot Oct 2–6 661 (LV) ± 4.3% 44% 45% 2% 1% 0%[p] 7%[q]
Trafalgar Group Oct 1–3 1,035 (LV) ± 2.97% 48% 44% 3% 1% 1%[r] 4%
YouGov/CBS Sep 30 – Oct 2 1,114 (LV) ± 3.7% 47% 47% 1%[s] 5%
OnMessage Inc./American Action Forum[B] Sep 28 – Oct 1 800 (LV) ± 3.46% 48% 47% 2% 1% 0%[t] 3%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Sep 1–30 4,012 (LV) 51% 47% 2%
Hart Research Associates/Human Rights Campaign[C] Sep 24–27 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 49% 47%
Fox News Sep 20–23 830 (LV) ± 3% 45% 50% 1% 1% 0%[u] 2%
907 (RV) ± 3% 44% 49% 1% 2% 2%[v] 3%
Quinnipiac University Sep 17–21 1,078 (LV) ± 3% 47% 48% 2% 4%
Baldwin Wallace University Sep 9–22 1,011 (LV) ± 3.3% 44% 45% 2% 0% 1%[w] 7%
Civiqs/Rust Belt Rising[A] Sep 11–15 556 (RV) ± 4.3% 48%[x] 45% 5%[y] 1%
Morning Consult Aug 29 – Sep 7 1,963 (LV) ± (2%–4%) 50%[z] 45%
OnMessage Inc./American Action Forum[B] Aug 31 – Sep 3 800 (LV) ± 3.46% 51% 45% 2%[aa] 3%
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports[1] Sep 1–2 1,000 (LV) ± 3% 47%[ab] 51% 3%[ac]
ALG Research/Progressive Policy Institute[D] Aug 26 – Sep 1 500 (LV) 46% 48%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Aug 1–31 3,220 (LV) 51% 48% 2%
Morning Consult Aug 21–30 1,811 (LV) ± (2%–4%) 50% 45%
Civiqs/Rust Belt Rising[A] Aug 13–17 631 (RV) 47% 47% 4%[ad] 2%
Morning Consult Aug 7–16 1,744 (LV) ± (2%–4%) 49% 45%
TargetSmart/Progress Ohio[E] Jul 28 – Aug 3 1,249 (LV) ± 3.6% 46% 47% 8%[ae]
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jul 1–31 3,694 (LV) 52% 46% 2%
Morning Consult Jul 17–26 1,741 (LV) ± 2.3% 48% 45%
YouGov/CBS Jul 21–24 1,211 (LV) ± 3.6% 46% 45% 2%[af] 7%
Zogby Analytics Jul 21–23 805 (RV) ± 3.5% 41% 43% 4% 1% 11%
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports/AGPAC[F] Jul 15–16 750 (LV) ± 4% 46% 50% 2%[ag] 2%
University of Akron Jun 24 – Jul 15 1,037 (RV) ± 3.0% 42% 46% 6%[ah] 6%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jun 8–30 1,610 (LV) 50% 49% 1%
Quinnipiac Jun 18–22 1,139 (RV) ± 2.9% 45% 46% 4%[ai] 5%
Fox News May 30 – Jun 2 803 (RV) ± 3.5% 43% 45% 6%[aj] 6%

January 1, 2020 – May 31, 2020

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Joe
Biden (D)
Other Undecided
Morning Consult May 17–26 1,720 (LV) 50% 42%
Emerson College May 8–10 725 (RV) ± 3.5% 51%[ak] 49%
Baldwin Wallace University/Oakland University/Ohio Northern University Apr 20–25 797 (RV) ± 3.7% 44% 45% 11%
Baldwin Wallace University Great Lakes Mar 17–25 1,025 (RV) ± 3.3% 47% 43% 10%
Change Research Mar 21–23 510 (LV) 52% 44% 5%
NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist College Mar 10–13 1,710 (RV) ± 2.9% 45% 49% 1% 5%

January 1, 2018 – December 31, 2019

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Joe
Biden (D)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling Oct 10–11, 2019 776 (V) ± 3.5% 46% 48% 6%
Climate Nexus[al] Oct 1–7, 2019 1112 (LV) ± 2.9% 47% 53%
42% 48% 10%
Emerson College Sep 29 – Oct 2, 2019 837 (RV) ± 3.2% 47% 53%
Quinnipiac University Jul 17–22, 2019 1,431 (RV) ± 3.2% 42% 50%
Public Policy Polling Nov 27–28, 2018 648 (V) ± 3.9% 44% 48% 8%
Former candidates

Donald Trump vs. Cory Booker

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Cory
Booker (D)
Undecided
Quinnipiac University Jul 17–22, 2019 1,431 (RV) ± 3.2% 44% 43%

Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Pete
Buttegieg (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling Oct 10–11, 2019 776 (V) ± 3.5% 47% 43% 10%
Climate Nexus[al] Oct 1–7, 2019 1112 (LV) ± 2.9% 50% 50%
Climate Nexus Oct 1–7, 2019 1112 (LV) ± 2.9% 46% 43% 11%
Quinnipiac University Jul 17–22, 2019 1,431 (RV) ± 3.2% 44% 44%

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Kamala
Harris (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling Oct 10–11, 2019 776 (V) ± 3.5% 47% 43% 10%
Climate Nexus[al] Oct 1–7, 2019 1112 (LV) ± 2.9% 50% 50%
Climate Nexus Oct 1–7, 2019 1112 (LV) ± 2.9% 46% 43% 11%
Quinnipiac University Jul 17–22, 2019 1,431 (RV) ± 3.2% 44% 44%

Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Bernie
Sanders (D)
Other Undecided
Baldwin Wallace University Great Lakes Mar 17–25, 2020 1,025 (RV) ± 3.3% 47% 41% 12%
NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist College Mar 10–13, 2020 1,710 (RV) ± 2.9% 46% 48% 1% 5%
Public Policy Polling Oct 10–11, 2019 776 (V) ± 3.5% 47% 47% 7%
Climate Nexus[al] Oct 1–7, 2019 1112 (LV) ± 2.9% 48% 52%
45% 47% 8%
Emerson College Sep 29 – Oct 2, 2019 837 (RV) ± 3.2% 47% 53%
Quinnipiac University Jul 17–22, 2019 1,431 (RV) ± 3.2% 46% 45%
Public Policy Polling Nov 27–28, 2018 648 (V) ± 3.9% 46% 47% 7%

Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Elizabeth
Warren (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling Oct 10–11, 2019 776 (V) ± 3.5% 47% 47% 6%
Climate Nexus[al] Oct 1–7, 2019 1112 (LV) ± 2.9% 49% 51%
Climate Nexus Oct 1–7, 2019 1112 (LV) ± 2.9% 45% 46% 9%
Emerson College Sep 29 – Oct 2, 2019 837 (RV) ± 3.2% 48% 52%
Quinnipiac University Jul 17–22, 2019 1,431 (RV) ± 3.2% 46% 45%
Public Policy Polling Nov 27–28, 2018 648 (V) ± 3.9% 49% 43% 9%
Zogby Analytics Aug 17–23, 2017 805 (LV) ± 3.5% 40% 44% 16%
Hypothetical polling

with Donald Trump and Sherrod Brown

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Sherrod
Brown (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling Nov 27–28, 2018 648 (V) ± 3.9% 42% 48% 10%

with Mike Pence and Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Mike
Pence (R)
Joe
Biden (D)
Emerson College Sep 29 – Oct 2, 2019 837 (RV) ± 3.2% 46% 54%

with Mike Pence and Bernie Sanders

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Mike
Pence (R)
Bernie
Sanders (D)
Emerson College Sep 29 – Oct 2, 2019 837 (RV) ± 3.2% 49% 51%

with Mike Pence and Elizabeth Warren

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Mike
Pence (R)
Elizabeth
Warren (D)
Emerson College Sep 29 – Oct 2, 2019 837 (RV) ± 3.2% 49% 51%

with Donald Trump and Generic Democrat

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Generic
Democrat (D)
Other Undecided
Baldwin Wallace University/Oakland University/Ohio Northern University Mar 17–25, 2020 997 (RV) ± 3.7% 49.4%[am] 48.3% 2.1%[an]
Baldwin Wallace University/Oakland University/Ohio Northern University Jan 8–20, 2020 1,031 (RV) ± 3.1% 41.3%[ao] 47.1% 11.5%
Public Policy Polling Oct 10–11, 2019 776 (V) ± 3.5% 47% 48% 5%
Ohio Northern University Apr 5–10, 2019 1,505 (A) ± 2.7% 34% 41% 18%
Baldwin Wallace University Apr 24 – May 2, 2018 811 (RV) ± 3.5% 41% 44% 6% 9%
Baldwin Wallace University Feb 28 – Mar 9, 2018 1,011 (RV) ± 3.0% 34% 32%

with John Kasich and Generic Democrat

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
John
Kasich (R)
Generic
Democrat
Other Undecided
Baldwin Wallace University Apr 24 – May 2, 2018 811 (RV) ± 3.5% 37% 31% 13% 19%
Baldwin Wallace University Feb 28 – Mar 9, 2018 1,011 (RV) ± 3.0% 41% 20% 12%

Results

Official state results from the Ohio Secretary of State are as follows:

2020 United States presidential election in Ohio
Party Candidate Running Mate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Republican Donald Trump Mike Pence 3,154,834 53.27% 18
Democratic Joe Biden Kamala Harris 2,679,165 45.24% 0
Libertarian Jo Jorgensen Spike Cohen 67,569 1.14% 0
Green Howie Hawkins Angela Nicole Walker 18,812 0.32% 0
Write-ins Write-ins Write-ins 1,822 0.03% 0
Totals 5,922,202 100.00% 18

By county

County[28] Donald Trump
Republican
Joe Biden
Democratic
Jo Jorgensen
Libertarian
Howie Hawkins
Green
Various candidates
Write-ins
Margin Total votes cast
# % # % # % # % # % # %
Adams 9,870 81.27% 2,156 17.75% 92 0.76% 27 0.22% 0 0.00% 7,714 63.52% 12,145
Allen 33,116 68.85% 14,149 29.42% 590 1.23% 138 0.29% 106 0.22% 18,967 39.43% 48,099
Ashland 19,407 73.50% 6,541 24.77% 345 1.31% 105 0.40% 7 0.03% 12,866 48.73% 26,405
Ashtabula 26,890 60.79% 16,497 37.29% 559 1.26% 196 0.44% 95 0.21% 10,393 23.50% 44,237
Athens 10,862 41.58% 14,772 56.55% 299 1.14% 115 0.44% 72 0.28% −3,910 −14.97% 26,120
Auglaize 20,798 80.54% 4,651 18.01% 260 1.01% 0 0.00% 113 0.44% 16,147 62.53% 25,822
Belmont 23,560 71.09% 9,138 27.57% 285 0.86% 98 0.30% 60 0.18% 14,422 43.52% 33,141
Brown 16,480 77.96% 4,380 20.72% 182 0.86% 54 0.26% 43 0.20% 12,100 57.24% 21,139
Butler 114,392 61.26% 69,613 37.28% 2,177 1.17% 493 0.26% 62 0.03% 44,779 23.98% 186,737
Carroll 10,745 75.49% 3,251 22.84% 156 1.10% 56 0.39% 25 0.18% 7,494 52.65% 14,233
Champaign 14,589 72.93% 5,062 25.31% 260 1.30% 55 0.27% 37 0.18% 9,527 47.62% 20,003
Clark 39,032 60.65% 24,076 37.41% 829 1.29% 245 0.38% 169 0.26% 14,956 23.24% 64,351
Clermont 74,570 67.36% 34,092 30.79% 1,513 1.37% 0 0.00% 535 0.48% 40,478 36.57% 110,710
Clinton 15,488 75.32% 4,697 22.84% 270 1.31% 67 0.33% 41 0.20% 10,791 52.48% 20,563
Columbiana 35,726 71.51% 13,359 26.74% 607 1.21% 162 0.32% 106 0.21% 22,367 44.77% 49,960
Coshocton 12,325 73.50% 4,125 24.60% 227 1.35% 62 0.37% 29 0.17% 8,200 48.90% 16,768
Crawford 15,436 74.52% 4,916 23.73% 278 1.34% 53 0.26% 30 0.14% 10,520 50.79% 20,713
Cuyahoga 202,699 32.32% 416,176 66.36% 4,593 0.73% 2,031 0.32% 1,661 0.26% −213,477 −34.04% 627,160
Darke 22,004 81.01% 4,731 17.42% 331 1.22% 0 0.00% 95 0.35% 17,273 63.59% 27,161
Defiance 13,038 67.27% 5,981 30.86% 272 1.40% 78 0.40% 12 0.06% 7,057 36.41% 19,381
Delaware 66,356 52.51% 57,735 45.69% 1,630 1.29% 0 0.00% 653 0.52% 8,621 6.82% 126,374
Erie 22,160 54.83% 17,493 43.28% 522 1.29% 153 0.38% 88 0.22% 4,667 11.55% 40,416
Fairfield 50,797 60.97% 31,224 37.48% 1,033 1.24% 223 0.27% 34 0.04% 19,573 23.49% 83,311
Fayette 9,473 75.03% 2,975 23.56% 132 1.05% 32 0.25% 14 0.11% 6,498 51.47% 12,626
Franklin 211,237 33.40% 409,144 64.68% 7,718 1.22% 2,169 0.34% 2,264 0.26% −197,907 −31.28% 632,532
Fulton 15,731 68.98% 6,664 29.22% 299 1.31% 71 0.31% 41 0.18% 9,067 39.76% 22,806
Gallia 10,645 77.14% 2,990 21.67% 132 0.96% 32 0.23% 0 0.00% 7,655 55.47% 13,799
Geauga 34,143 60.95% 21,201 37.84% 534 0.95% 0 0.00% 143 0.26% 12,942 23.11% 56,021
Greene 52,072 58.74% 34,798 39.26% 1,458 1.64% 264 0.30% 51 0.06% 17,274 19.48% 88,643
Guernsey 13,407 73.41% 4,577 25.06% 177 0.97% 67 0.37% 36 0.20% 8,830 48.35% 18,264
Hamilton 177,886 41.28% 246,266 57.15% 5,211 1.21% 1,389 0.32% 177 0.04% −68,380 −15.87% 430,929
Hancock 26,310 67.86% 11,757 30.32% 580 1.50% 110 0.28% 14 0.04% 14,553 37.54% 38,771
Hardin 9,949 75.10% 3,062 23.11% 192 1.45% 44 0.33% 0 0.00% 6,887 51.99% 13,247
Harrison 5,792 75.58% 1,768 23.07% 59 0.77% 36 0.47% 8 0.10% 4,024 52.51% 7,663
Henry 10,479 70.86% 4,062 27.47% 175 1.18% 44 0.30% 28 0.19% 6,417 43.39% 14,788
Highland 15,678 79.68% 3,799 19.31% 146 0.74% 0 0.00% 53 0.27% 11,879 60.37% 19,676
Hocking 9,737 70.28% 3,880 28.00% 162 1.17% 40 0.29% 36 0.26% 5,857 42.28% 13,855
Holmes 10,796 83.19% 1,994 15.36% 125 0.96% 0 0.00% 63 0.49% 8,802 67.83% 12,978
Huron 18,956 69.72% 7,759 28.54% 387 1.42% 83 0.31% 5 0.02% 11,197 41.18% 27,190
Jackson 11,309 76.36% 3,311 22.36% 144 0.97% 0 0.00% 46 0.31% 7,998 54.00% 14,810
Jefferson 22,828 68.30% 10,018 29.98% 357 1.07% 100 0.30% 118 0.35% 12,810 38.32% 33,421
Knox 22,340 71.01% 8,589 27.30% 374 1.19% 86 0.27% 70 0.22% 13,751 43.71% 31,459
Lake 73,278 56.03% 55,514 42.45% 1,284 0.98% 408 0.31% 298 0.23% 17,764 13.58% 130,782
Lawrence 20,306 72.06% 7,489 26.58% 259 0.92% 0 0.00% 125 0.44% 12,817 45.48% 28,179
Licking 59,514 63.05% 33,055 35.02% 1,279 1.35% 312 0.33% 236 0.25% 26,459 28.03% 94,396
Logan 17,964 76.74% 5,055 21.59% 272 1.16% 69 0.29% 49 0.21% 12,909 55.15% 23,409
Lorain 79,520 50.40% 75,667 47.96% 1,677 1.06% 534 0.34% 370 0.23% 3,853 2.44% 157,768
Lucas 81,763 40.66% 115,411 57.39% 2,605 1.30% 780 0.39% 548 0.27% −33,648 −16.73% 201,107
Madison 13,835 69.57% 5,698 28.65% 269 1.35% 0 0.00% 85 0.43% 8,137 40.92% 19,887
Mahoning 59,903 50.26% 57,641 48.36% 966 0.81% 436 0.37% 244 0.20% 2,262 1.90% 119,190
Marion 19,023 68.25% 8,269 29.67% 414 1.49% 112 0.40% 53 0.19% 10,754 38.58% 27,871
Medina 64,598 60.92% 39,800 37.53% 1,144 1.08% 266 0.25% 233 0.22% 24,798 23.39% 106,041
Meigs 8,316 75.83% 2,492 22.72% 111 1.01% 32 0.29% 16 0.15% 5,824 53.11% 10,967
Mercer 19,452 81.79% 4,030 16.94% 204 0.86% 67 0.28% 31 0.13% 15,422 64.85% 23,784
Miami 41,371 71.23% 15,663 26.97% 782 1.35% 0 0.00% 261 0.45% 25,708 44.26% 58,077
Monroe 5,463 76.31% 1,605 22.42% 54 0.75% 26 0.36% 11 0.15% 3,858 53.89% 7,159
Montgomery 129,034 47.94% 135,064 50.18% 3,418 1.27% 884 0.33% 764 0.28% -6,030 -2.24% 269,164
Morgan 5,041 73.53% 1,725 25.16% 64 0.93% 0 0.00% 26 0.38% 3,316 48.37% 6,856
Morrow 14,077 76.22% 4,048 21.92% 257 1.39% 70 0.38% 16 0.09% 10,029 54.30% 18,468
Muskingum 27,867 68.86% 11,971 29.58% 459 1.13% 163 0.40% 7 0.02% 15,896 39.28% 40,467
Noble 5,135 80.89% 1,170 18.43% 25 0.39% 0 0.00% 18 0.28% 3,965 62.46% 6,348
Ottawa 14,628 60.83% 9,008 37.46% 292 1.21% 74 0.31% 44 0.18% 5,628 23.37% 24,046
Paulding 7,086 74.72% 2,213 23.33% 124 1.31% 38 0.40% 23 0.24% 4,873 51.39% 9,484
Perry 12,357 74.10% 4,098 24.57% 170 1.02% 47 0.28% 4 0.02% 8,259 49.53% 16,676
Pickaway 20,593 72.73% 7,304 25.80% 295 1.04% 0 0.00% 122 0.43% 13,289 46.93% 28,314
Pike 9,157 73.70% 3,110 25.03% 123 0.99% 0 0.00% 34 0.27% 6,047 48.67% 12,424
Portage 45,990 55.39% 35,661 42.95% 906 1.09% 295 0.36% 170 0.20% 10,329 12.44% 83,022
Preble 17,022 77.94% 4,493 20.57% 243 1.11% 0 0.00% 82 0.38% 12,529 57.37% 21,840
Putnam 16,412 82.28% 3,195 16.02% 247 1.24% 61 0.31% 32 0.16% 13,217 66.26% 19,947
Richland 41,472 69.15% 17,640 29.41% 680 1.13% 168 0.28% 15 0.03% 23,832 39.74% 59,975
Ross 22,278 66.77% 10,557 31.64% 345 1.03% 116 0.35% 69 0.21% 11,721 35.13% 33,365
Sandusky 18,896 62.72% 10,596 35.17% 448 1.49% 132 0.44% 56 0.19% 8,300 27.55% 30,128
Scioto 22,609 70.54% 9,080 28.33% 262 0.82% 91 0.28% 9 0.03% 13,529 42.21% 32,051
Seneca 17,086 66.10% 8,266 31.98% 357 1.38% 94 0.36% 45 0.17% 8,820 34.12% 25,848
Shelby 20,422 80.74% 4,465 17.65% 290 1.15% 71 0.28% 45 0.18% 15,957 63.09% 25,293
Stark 111,097 58.44% 75,904 39.93% 2,163 1.14% 683 0.36% 246 0.13% 35,193 18.51% 190,093
Summit 124,833 44.38% 151,668 53.92% 3,003 1.07% 888 0.32% 888 0.26% −26,835 −9.54% 281,280
Trumbull 55,194 54.57% 44,519 44.01% 913 0.90% 356 0.35% 170 0.17% 10,675 10.56% 101,152
Tuscarawas 30,458 69.09% 12,889 29.24% 494 1.12% 161 0.37% 85 0.19% 17,569 39.85% 44,087
Union 21,669 64.62% 11,141 33.22% 535 1.60% 100 0.30% 90 0.27% 10,528 31.40% 33,535
Van Wert 11,650 77.70% 3,067 20.45% 201 1.34% 42 0.28% 34 0.23% 8,583 57.25% 14,994
Vinton 4,632 76.71% 1,331 22.04% 47 0.78% 17 0.28% 11 0.18% 3,301 54.67% 6,038
Warren 87,988 64.49% 46,069 33.76% 1,747 1.28% 0 0.00% 637 0.47% 41,919 30.73% 136,441
Washington 22,307 69.53% 9,243 28.81% 372 1.16% 109 0.34% 50 0.16% 13,064 40.72% 32,081
Wayne 36,759 67.72% 16,660 30.69% 665 1.23% 173 0.32% 26 0.05% 20,099 37.03% 54,283
Williams 13,452 72.12% 4,842 25.96% 285 1.53% 70 0.38% 2 0.01% 8,610 46.16% 18,651
Wood 35,757 52.89% 30,617 45.29% 992 1.47% 211 0.31% 23 0.03% 5,140 7.60% 67,600
Wyandot 8,462 74.21% 2,733 23.97% 155 1.36% 38 0.33% 15 0.13% 5,729 50.24% 11,403
Totals 3,154,834 53.18% 2,679,165 45.16% 67,569 1.14% 18,812 0.32% 12,018 0.20% 475,669 8.02% 5,932,398

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Mahoning County

Mahoning County, anchored by the car-making town of Youngstown, voted Republican for the first time since Richard Nixon's landslide re-election in 1972. The slim victory by Trump marked a collapse in Democrats' support among working-class voters, and tightened the President's grip on blue-collar white voters.

David Betras, who was Democratic chairman of Mahoning County until 2019, speculated on the disconnect between Democrats in Washington who focused messaging Trump’s unfitness for office, his taxes and possible impeachment, and the concerns of blue-collar workers were supporting Trump for his trade war with China, regardless of economic pain caused by tariffs.[29]

By congressional district

Trump won 12 out of the 16 congressional districts in Ohio.

District Trump Biden Representative
1st 51% 48% Steve Chabot
2nd 56% 43% Brad Wenstrup
3rd 28% 70% Joyce Beatty
4th 67% 31% Jim Jordan
5th 61% 37% Bob Latta
6th 72% 27% Bill Johnson
7th 65% 33% Bob Gibbs
8th 66% 33% Warren Davidson
9th 40% 59% Marcy Kaptur
10th 51% 47% Mike Turner
11th 20% 80% Marcia Fudge
12th 52% 46% Troy Balderson
13th 48% 51% Tim Ryan
14th 54% 45% David Joyce
15th 56% 42% Steve Stivers
16th 57% 42% Anthony Gonzalez

See also

Notes

  1. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  4. ^ "Some other candidate" with 3%
  5. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  6. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
  7. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  8. ^ With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  9. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  10. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
  11. ^ "Other" with 1%; would not vote with no voters
  12. ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%
  13. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  14. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  15. ^ "Another candidate" with 1%
  16. ^ "Someone else" and would not vote with 0%
  17. ^ Includes "Refused"
  18. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
  19. ^ "Someone else/third party" with 1%
  20. ^ "Other" and would not vote with no voters
  21. ^ "Other" with 0%; would not vote with no voters
  22. ^ "Other" and would not vote with 1%
  23. ^ "Another candidate" with 1%
  24. ^ Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  25. ^ "Someone else" with 5%
  26. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  27. ^ "Other" and would not vote with 1%
  28. ^ With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  29. ^ "Some other candidate" with 3%
  30. ^ "Someone else" with 4%
  31. ^ "Other and Undecided" with 8%
  32. ^ "Someone else/third party" with 2%; would not vote with 0%
  33. ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%
  34. ^ "Other candidates" with 6%
  35. ^ "Someone else" with 3%; would not vote with 1%
  36. ^ "Other" with 4%; would not vote with 2%
  37. ^ Including voters who lean towards a given candidate
  38. ^ a b c d e The poll below displays the results for voters who are sure how they will vote. This one incorporates the preferences of those who lean towards one of two candidates.
  39. ^ Figures for each candidate in this poll include undecided voters who were reported to lean towards that candidate at the time of polling.
  40. ^ "It depends on who the Democrats nominate" with 1.4%; "unsure" with 0.7%
  41. ^ Figures for each candidate in this poll include undecided voters who were reported to lean towards that candidate at the time of polling.
Partisan clients
  1. ^ a b c Rust Belt Rising is affiliated with the Democratic Party
  2. ^ a b The American Action Forum is a 501 organisation which usually supports Republican candidates
  3. ^ The Human Rights Campaign endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period
  4. ^ The Progressive Policy Institute endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period
  5. ^ Progress Ohio exclusively supports Democratic candidates
  6. ^ The Center for American Greatness is a pro-Trump organization

References

  1. ^ Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  2. ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  3. ^ Grabar, Henry (November 13, 2018). "Democrats Proved They Can Win Again in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. Why Not Ohio?". Slate Magazine. Retrieved January 18, 2021.
  4. ^ "County winners, 1836-2016". Google Docs. Retrieved November 15, 2020.
  5. ^ Merica, Dan (March 16, 2020). "Ohio governor recommends delaying Tuesday's primary until June amid coronavirus pandemic". CNN. Retrieved March 16, 2020.
  6. ^ "Judge rejects lawsuit to delay Ohio's primary election". WBNS-TV. March 16, 2020. Retrieved March 16, 2020.
  7. ^ "Ohio health chief to order polls closed ahead of primary amid coronavirus". fox8.com. March 16, 2020. Retrieved March 16, 2020.
  8. ^ "Coronavirus: Ohio Supreme Court allows delay to primary election". The Columbus Dispatch. March 17, 2020.
  9. ^ "Ohio to run all-mail primary through April 28". Politico. March 25, 2020.
  10. ^ "Ohio Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved April 28, 2020.
  11. ^ "2020 ELECTIONS RESULTS". Ohio Secretary of State. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
  12. ^ "Delegate Tracker". interactives.ap.org. Associated Press. Retrieved April 30, 2020.
  13. ^ "2020 Ohio presidential caucus". Vote Free Ohio. April 11, 2020. Retrieved April 12, 2020.
  14. ^ "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  15. ^ "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  16. ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved November 2, 2020.
  17. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
  18. ^ "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
  19. ^ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020
  20. ^ David Chalian; Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
  21. ^ "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
  22. ^ "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
  23. ^ "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
  24. ^ "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
  25. ^ "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
  26. ^ "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
  27. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
  28. ^ "2020 Official Elections Results".
  29. ^ Gabriel, Trip (May 20, 2019). "There's No Boom in Youngstown, but Blue-Collar Workers Are Sticking With Trump (Published 2019)". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 28, 2020.

Further reading

External links

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