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2020 United States presidential election in New Jersey

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

2020 United States presidential election in New Jersey

← 2016 November 3, 2020 2024 →
TurnoutIncrease 72%
 
Joe Biden presidential portrait (cropped).jpg
Donald Trump official portrait (cropped).jpg
Nominee Joe Biden Donald Trump
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Delaware Florida
Running mate Kamala Harris Mike Pence
Electoral vote 14 0
Popular vote 2,608,335 1,883,274
Percentage 57.33% 41.40%

New Jersey Presidential Election Results 2020.svg
County results

President before election

Donald Trump
Republican

Elected President

Joe Biden
Democratic

The 2020 United States presidential election in New Jersey was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[1] New Jersey voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. New Jersey has 14 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]

Biden carried the state on the day of the election by 15.93%, or 11.53% left of the nation as a whole. Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Biden's strength in New Jersey came from a coalition of key Democratic constituencies, garnering 88% of Blacks, 74% of Latinos, 81% of Asians, and 54% of union households.[3] Biden's strength with Asian American voters was evident in New Jersey, which has a high population of South Asian and Indian Americans, who are the most Democratic Asian American constituency, according to FiveThirtyEight.[4] Biden became the first Democrat to win Morris County since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964.[5] He also flipped Gloucester County, which Trump had flipped in 2016. This also became the first presidential election since 2000 where Salem County did not vote for the winner of the presidential election.[6][7][8][9][10] Biden subsequently became the first presidential nominee of either party since 2000, and the first Democrat since 1992 to win the White House without carrying Salem County.[11][12] Trump carried 255 of New Jersey's 565 municipalities, less than the 307 he carried in 2016, with Biden carrying the other 310.[13] Biden's 2.6 million votes is the most received by a Democrat in a presidential election in the state's history.

Primary elections

The primary elections were originally scheduled for June 2, 2020. In April, they were moved to July 7 due to concerns over the COVID-19 pandemic.[14] On May 15, 2020, Governor Phil Murphy signed an executive order declaring that the primary election to become a primarily vote-by-mail election. Democratic and Republican voters will automatically receive a vote-by-mail ballot while unaffiliated and inactive voters will get a vote-by-mail application. Unaffiliated voters must declare their party in the application and send in to their respective county board of elections in order to vote and receive their primary election ballot. A limited number of polling stations in each county will be available on primary day for those who prefer to vote in person (including with provisional ballots if they're unable to obtain one) and for voters with disabilities.[15]

Republican primary

Incumbent President Donald Trump ran unopposed in the Republican primary.[16] The state has 49 delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention.[17]

2020 New Jersey Republican primary
Candidate Votes % Delegates
Donald Trump 457,212 100 49
Total 457,212 100.00 49

Democratic primary

2020 New Jersey Democratic presidential primary[18]
Candidate Votes % Delegates[19]
Joe Biden 814,188 84.92 121
Bernie Sanders (suspended) 140,412 14.65 5
Uncommitted 4,162 0.43
Total 958,762 100% 126

Green primary

New Jersey Green Party presidential primary, May 2, 2020[20][better source needed]
Candidate Votes Percentage[a] National delegates
Howie Hawkins 44 78.6% 5
Dario Hunter 4 7.1% 0
Jesse Ventura 3 5.4% 0
Sedinam Moyowasifza-Curry 2 3.6% 0
Bernie Sanders 2 3.6% 0
Kent Mesplay 1 1.8% 0
Susan Buchser-Lochocki 0 0% 0
Dennis Lambert 0 0% 0
Chad Wilson 0 0% 0
David Rolde 0 0% 0
Total 56 100.00% 5

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[21] Solid D October 28, 2020
Inside Elections[22] Safe D October 16, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[23] Safe D October 8, 2020
Politico[24] Safe D September 8, 2020
RCP[25] Likely D August 3, 2020
Niskanen[26] Safe D July 26, 2020
CNN[27] Safe D August 3, 2020
The Economist[28] Safe D September 2, 2020
CBS News[29] Likely D September 27, 2020
270towin[30] Safe D August 2, 2020
ABC News[31] Safe D July 31, 2020
NPR[32] Likely D October 30, 2020
NBC News[33] Likely D August 6, 2020
538[34] Solid D September 27, 2020
Fox News[35] Likely D November 2, 2020

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Donald
Trump

Republican
Other/
Undecided
[b]
Margin
270 to Win October 9 – November 2, 2020 November 3, 2020 56.5% 37.3% 6.2% Biden +19.2
Real Clear Politics September 4 – October 13, 2020 November 3, 2020 54.7% 37.3% 8.0% Biden +17.4
FiveThirtyEight until November 2, 2020 November 3, 2020 58.4% 37.9% 3.7% Biden +20.4
Average 56.5% 37.5% 7.8% Biden +19.0
Polls
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump

Republican
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Jo
Jorgensen

Libertarian
Howie
Hawkins

Green
Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 3,870 (LV) ± 2% 38%[d] 59% - -
Research Co. Oct 31 – Nov 1, 2020 450 (LV) ± 4.6% 40% 59% - - 1%[e] 5%
Swayable Oct 27 – Nov 1, 2020 324 (LV) ± 7.2% 40% 59% 1% 0%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 1–28, 2020 6,472 (LV) 37% 60% - -
Swayable Oct 23–26, 2020 386 (LV) ± 6.5% 38% 62% 0% 0%
Rutgers-Eagleton Oct 19–24, 2020 834 (LV) ± 4% 37% 59% - - 1%[f] 1%
Stockton College Oct 7–13, 2020 721 (LV) ± 3.7% 36% 56% - -
DKC Analytics/Brach Eichler Oct 5–13, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 34% 56% - - 10%[g]
Fairleigh Dickinson University Sep 30 – Oct 5, 2020 582 (LV) ± 4.6% 38% 53% - - 5%[h] 4%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Sep 1–30, 2020 2,952 (LV) 37% 60% - - 3%
DKC Analytics/Brach Eichler Sep 8–16, 2020 501 (LV) ± 4.4% 38% 52% - - 10%[i]
Emerson College Sep 4–7, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 40%[j] 58% - - 2%[k]
SurveyMonkey/Axios Aug 1–31, 2020 2,309 (LV) 40% 57% - - 3%
DKC Analytics/Brach Eichler Aug 5–13, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.383% 33% 52% - - 15%[l]
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jul 1–31, 2020 2,426 (LV) 37% 61% - - 2%
Pollfish/DKC Analytics/Brach Eichler Jul 7–12, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.383% 33% 51% - - 7%[m] 8%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jun 8–30, 2020 1,110 (LV) 37% 61% - - 3%
Quinnipiac Apr 30 – May 4, 2020 941 (RV) ± 3.2% 35% 54% - - 3%[n] 8%
Rutgers-Eagleton Apr 22 – May 2, 2020 689 (RV) ± 4.2% 33% 56% - - 5%[o] 7%
Monmouth University Apr 16–19, 2020 635 (RV) ± 3.9% 38% 54% - - 2% 6%
Fairleigh Dickinson University Feb 12–16, 2020 715 (RV) 35% 53% - -
Former candidates
Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Bernie
Sanders (D)
Other Undecided
Fairleigh Dickinson University Feb 12–16, 2020 715 (RV) 36% 53%
Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Elizabeth
Warren (D)
Other Undecided
Fairleigh Dickinson University Feb 12–16, 2020 715 (RV) 36% 50%
Donald Trump vs. Michael Bloomberg
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Michael
Bloomberg (D)
Other Undecided
Fairleigh Dickinson University Feb 12–16, 2020 715 (RV) 32% 56%
Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Pete
Buttigieg (D)
Other Undecided
Fairleigh Dickinson University Feb 12–16, 2020 715 (RV) 36% 48%
Donald Trump vs. Amy Klobuchar
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Amy
Klobuchar (D)
Other Undecided
Fairleigh Dickinson University Feb 12–16, 2020 715 (RV) 36% 47%

Results

Results of the general election by municipality, darker colors indicate higher win percentage: -Blue municipalities won by Biden -Red municipalities won by Trump
Results of the general election by municipality, darker colors indicate higher win percentage:
-Blue municipalities won by Biden
-Red municipalities won by Trump
Swing from 2016 to 2020 by each municipality, darker colors indicate a higher swing from 2016: -Blue municipalities swung towards Biden -Red municipalities swung towards Trump
Swing from 2016 to 2020 by each municipality, darker colors indicate a higher swing from 2016:
-Blue municipalities swung towards Biden
-Red municipalities swung towards Trump

As the polls predicted, Joe Biden won New Jersey by a wide margin. Biden ran up huge margins in the state's major cities such as Newark, Jersey City, Paterson, Trenton, Atlantic City, Camden, and several others. In addition to carrying all the counties that Clinton won in 2016, Biden flipped Gloucester County, which was a reliably blue county before Trump won it in 2016. Biden also won Morris County, which had never voted Democratic in any presidential race since 1964; Senator Cory Booker concurrently won Morris County in his reelection victory as well. In neighboring Hunterdon County, Biden came within 4.4 points of victory despite the county being a reliably Republican stronghold as well. Biden also performed strongly in several of the state's other historically Republican counties; he noticeably improved upon the Democrat's margins in Warren, Cape May, and Ocean Counties,[36][circular reference][37][circular reference][38][circular reference] and even recorded the highest share of the vote in Sussex and Hunterdon Counties for a Democrat since 1964.[39][circular reference][40][circular reference]

President Trump, meanwhile, performed strongly in Ocean County, which is reliably red. He also did well in Sussex and Warren counties, two northern rural counties that have not voted Democratic since 1964. Salem County, which Trump flipped in 2016, remained in his column and he also held on to Monmouth County, which hasn't voted Democratic since 2000 but where the margins have always been somewhat close. Trump improved on his 2016 margins in Cumberland, Atlantic, and Passaic Counties, which have not voted for a Republican since 1988, 1988, and 1992, respectively.[41][circular reference][42][circular reference][43][circular reference] He also improved in the urban counties of Essex and Hudson, due to noticeable improvement in several of those counties' most populated cities, such as Jersey City and Newark, even as Biden widened his vote margin in many of these.[44]

Ultimately, Trump carried 255 of New Jersey's 565 municipalities, less than the 307 he carried in 2016, with Biden carrying the other 310. Compared to their 2016 margins, 471 of New Jersey's 565 municipalities swung towards Biden in this election. However, Trump was able to improve significantly upon his 2016 margins in many of New Jersey's most heavily populated cities, which kept the statewide margin within 2% of the 2016 results. For example, in New Jersey's most populated city, Newark, Trump nearly doubled his 2016 share of the vote, going from 6.63% to 12.25% of the vote.[44] This was the best Republican performance in Newark since George W. Bush received 12.8% of the vote in 2004.[45][circular reference] Other populated cities, such as Paterson and Camden, posted similarly notable shifts towards the GOP, with much of the rest of the state shifting towards the Democrats instead.

2020 United States presidential election in New Jersey[46]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Joseph R. Biden Jr.
Kamala D. Harris
2,608,335 57.33% +1.88%
Republican Donald Trump
Mike Pence
1,883,274 41.40% +0.05%
Libertarian Jo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen
31,677 0.70% -1.17%
Green Howie Hawkins
Angela Walker
14,202 0.31% -0.67%
Unity Bill Hammons
Eric Bodenstab
3,255 0.07% ±0.00%
Constitution Don Blankenship
William Mohr
2,954 0.06% -0.10%
Socialism and Liberation Gloria La Riva
Sunil Freeman
2,928 0.06% +0.02%
Alliance Rocky De La Fuente
Darcy Richardson
2,728 0.06% +0.01%
Total votes 4,549,353 100.00%

Results by county

Show/hide: [vote percentages]

Candidate Joe Biden % Donald Trump % Jo Jorgensen Howie Hawkins Bill Hammons Don Blankenship Gloria La Riva Rocky De La Fuente Write-Ins Margin % Total votes Turnout
[47]
Party Democratic Republican Libertarian Green Unity Constitution PSL Alliance
County # % # % # # # # # # # # % # %
Atlantic[48][49] 73,808 52.55% 64,438 45.88% 958 367 108 103 177 72 410 9,370 6.67% 140,441 70%
Bergen[50][51] 285,967 57.44% 204,417 41.06% 2,852 1,375 284 327 384 243 1,989 81,550 16.38% 497,838 75%
Burlington[52] 154,595 58.86% 103,345 39.35% 2,206 605 130 360 174 82 1,153 51,250 19.51% 262,650 78%
Camden[53] 175,065 65.91% 86,207 32.46% 1,884 781 151 216 199 113 983 88,858 33.46% 265,599 69%
Cape May[54] 23,941 41.33% 33,158 57.24% 311 140 59 31 19 55 219 −9,217 −15.91% 57,933 78%
Cumberland[55] 32,742 52.32% 28,952 46.27% 397 139 71 32 26 49 167 3,790 6.06% 62,575 71%
Essex[56] 266,820 77.27% 75,475 21.86% 1,296 978 104 116 278 244 191,345 55.41% 345,311 62%
Gloucester[57] 86,702 49.99% 83,340 48.05% 1,616 446 149 122 82 197 799 3,362 1.94% 173,453 79%
Hudson[58] 181,452 72.45% 65,698 26.23% 1,252 782 251 102 205 108 608 115,754 46.22% 250,458 62%
Hunterdon[59] 39,457 46.60% 43,153 50.96% 985 410 77 77 44 39 431 −3,696 −4.37% 84,673 86%
Mercer[60] 122,532 69.14% 51,641 29.14% 1,426 564 91 88 125 136 619 70,891 40.00% 177,223 69%
Middlesex[61] 226,250 60.22% 143,467 38.19% 2,554 1,221 198 198 247 249 1,330 82,783 22.03% 375,692 69%
Monmouth[62] 181,291 47.91% 191,808 50.69% 2,708 1,414 340 227 181 182 239 −10,517 −2.78% 378,390 82%
Morris[63] 153,881 51.14% 141,134 46.90% 2,439 1,005 224 208 253 182 1,595 12,747 4.24% 300,917 78%
Ocean[64] 119,456 34.85% 217,740 63.53% 2,469 1,050 494 140 49 118 1,230 −98,274 −28.67% 342,746 78%
Passaic[65] 129,097 57.55% 92,009 41.02% 1,103 805 108 145 161 279 623 37,088 16.53% 224,330 69%
Salem[66] 14,479 42.53% 18,827 55.31% 406 93 40 40 17 20 120 −4,348 −12.77% 34,042 69%
Somerset[67] 111,173 59.49% 71,996 38.52% 1,641 620 133 115 116 65 1,032 39,177 20.96% 186,891 74%
Sussex[68] 34,481 39.03% 51,698 58.51% 1,094 352 91 103 91 50 392 −17,217 −19.49% 88,352 78%
Union[69] 170,245 67.01% 80,002 31.49% 1,427 792 61 116 57 291 1,050 90,243 35.52% 254,041 69%
Warren[70] 24,901 40.78% 34,769 56.95% 655 63 91 40 41 27 270 −9,868 −16.16% 61,057 72%
Totals 2,608,335 57.14% 1,883,274 41.26% 31,677 14,202 3,255 2,954 2,928 2,728 15,259 725,061 15.88% 4,564,612 72%

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Biden won 9 out of the 12 congressional districts in New Jersey.[71]

District Biden Trump Representative
1st 62.1% 36.6% Donald Norcross
2nd 47.9% 50.8% Jeff Van Drew
3rd 49.2% 49.4% Andy Kim
4th 44.1% 54.6% Chris Smith
5th 52.0% 46.7% Josh Gottheimer
6th 57.2% 41.5% Frank Pallone, Jr.
7th 54.2% 44.3% Tom Malinowski
8th 73.1% 25.9% Albio Sires
9th 62.1% 36.9% Bill Pascrell
10th 82.8% 16.4% Donald M. Payne Jr.
11th 52.9% 45.8% Mikie Sherrill
12th 67.3% 31.4% Bonnie Watson Coleman

[72]

Notes

  1. ^ This primary was conducted under a system in which each person could cast a vote for more than one candidate, therefore percentages reflect the percentage of voters that approved of each candidate, and as a result do not add up to 100%.
  2. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  3. ^ Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  4. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  5. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
  6. ^ "Neither" with 1%; "Someone else" with 0%
  7. ^ "Another candidate or unsure" with 10%
  8. ^ "Refused" with 4%; "Someone else" with 1%
  9. ^ "Another candidate or unsure" with 10%
  10. ^ With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  11. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  12. ^ "Another candidate or unsure" with 15%
  13. ^ "For another candidate" with 7%
  14. ^ "Someone else" with 2%; would not vote with 1%
  15. ^ "Neither" with 4%; "someone else" with 1%

See also

References

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  2. ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  3. ^ "New Jersey Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 9, 2020.
  4. ^ Mehta, Dhrumil (September 18, 2020). "How Asian Americans Are Thinking About The 2020 Election". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved November 9, 2020.
  5. ^ Homan, Timothy R. (November 11, 2020). "On The Trail: Biden wins America's economic engines". TheHill. Retrieved November 15, 2020.
  6. ^ "Salem County General Election Results: Presidential (2016)" (PDF). New Jersey Division of Elections. Retrieved December 18, 2020.
  7. ^ "General Election Results Salem County: Presidential (2012)" (PDF). New Jersey Division of Elections. Retrieved December 18, 2020.
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  10. ^ "Official General Election Results: President (2000)" (PDF). New Jersey Division of Elections. Retrieved December 18, 2020.
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  12. ^ "General Election Results: President (1992)" (PDF). New Jersey Division of Elections. Retrieved December 20, 2020.
  13. ^ https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/these-53-n-j-towns-flipped-from-trump-to-biden-in-2020/ar-BB1c8xJr?ocid=spartan-ntp-feeds
  14. ^ "New Jersey moves primary elections to July". The Hill. April 8, 2020.
  15. ^ https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2020/05/njs-july-7-primary-election-will-be-mostly-vote-by-mail-during-coronavirus-pandemic-murphy-says.html
  16. ^ "Trump, Biden (no surprise) prevail in N.J.'s presidential primary". NJ.com. July 7, 2020.
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  22. ^ "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  23. ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
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  25. ^ "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
  26. ^ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions Archived April 23, 2020, at the Wayback Machine, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020
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  35. ^ "2020 Battleground Power Rankings". Fox News. Retrieved November 2, 2020.
  36. ^ > "Warren County Presidential Results".
  37. ^ > "Cape May County Presidential Results".
  38. ^ > "Ocean County Presidential Results".
  39. ^ > "Sussex County Presidential Results".
  40. ^ > "Sussex County Presidential Results".
  41. ^ > "Cumberland County Presidential Results".
  42. ^ > "Atlantic County Presidential Results".
  43. ^ > "Passaic County Presidential Results".
  44. ^ a b > "NJ DOS - Division of Elections - 2020 Election Information".
  45. ^ > "Politics of Newark, New Jersey".
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Further reading

External links

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