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2020 United States presidential election in Maryland

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

2020 United States presidential election in Maryland

← 2016 November 3, 2020 2024 →
Turnout74.63%Increase 2.65 pp[1]
 
Joe Biden 2013.jpg
Donald Trump official portrait (cropped).jpg
Nominee Joe Biden Donald Trump
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Delaware Florida
Running mate Kamala Harris Mike Pence
Electoral vote 10 0
Popular vote 1,985,023 976,414
Percentage 65.36% 32.15%

Maryland Presidential Election Results 2020.svg
County results

President before election

Donald Trump
Republican

Elected President

Joe Biden
Democratic

The 2020 United States presidential election in Maryland was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[2] Maryland voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Maryland has 10 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[3]

Joe Biden easily carried Maryland 65.4% to 32.2%, a margin of 33.2%, better than Clinton's 26.4% in 2016. Prior to the election, all news organizations considered Maryland "Safe Biden". Formerly a swing state,[4] Maryland is known for being one of the most progressive states in the East Coast[citation needed], and has been a Democratic stronghold since 1992.

Biden carried Montgomery, Prince George's, and Baltimore counties, and the city of Baltimore, with 77.5%, 89.3%, 58.8%, and 87.3% of the vote, respectively. Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Biden's strength in Maryland came from 94% of African-Americans, who represented 28% of the electorate. 74% of voters believed the criminal justice system needed a complete overhaul or major changes, and they opted for Biden by 73%.[5]

Biden flipped the Washington, D.C.-area exurban county of Frederick County, as well as Talbot County--home to Easton--Democratic for the first time since 1964.[6] He also flipped Kent County, located on the Eastern Shore, blue, likely due to an increase in urbanization in neighboring Middletown, Delaware. In a third county on the Eastern Shore, Wicomico, Biden failed to prevail but nevertheless held Trump to the first plurality (rather than majority) win for a Republican nominee since 1996.

Biden's performance was the strongest in Maryland since fellow Democrat Horatio Seymour's in 1868. In terms of statewide vote share, Trump performed worse than any Republican since 1912, when the national Republican vote was split by former President Theodore Roosevelt's third-party run against both President William Howard Taft and New Jersey Governor Woodrow Wilson. Even landslide losers Herbert Hoover in 1932, Alf Landon in 1936, and Barry Goldwater in 1964 managed higher vote shares than Trump's 32.15%. Apart from 1912, only in the antebellum elections of 1856 and 1860 did the Republican nominee perform worse in the state than Trump did in 2020.

Maryland was one of seventeen states where President Trump received less percentage of the vote than he did in the 2016 election.[a] The Republican presidential vote share has now declined for four elections in a row in the Old Line State, the longest such run of declines for either party in any state. It was also one of five states in the nation in which Biden's victory margin was larger than 1 million raw votes, the others being California, New York, Massachusetts and Illinois.

Primary elections

The primary elections were originally scheduled for April 28, 2020. On March 17, they were moved to June 2 due to concerns over the COVID-19 pandemic.[7]

Republican primary

Donald Trump won the Republican primary, and thus received all of the state's 38 delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention.[8]

Democratic primary

2020 Maryland Democratic presidential primary[9]
Candidate Votes % Delegates[10]
Joe Biden 879,753 83.7% 96
Bernie Sanders (suspended) 81,939 7.8%
Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn) 27,134 2.6%
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn) 7,180 0.7%
Michael Bloomberg (withdrawn) 6,773 0.6%
Andrew Yang (withdrawn) 6,670 0.6%
Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn) 5,685 0.5%
Tulsi Gabbard (withdrawn) 4,226 0.4%
Cory Booker (withdrawn) 2,662 0.3%
Michael Bennet (withdrawn) 2,291 0.2%
Marianne Williamson (withdrawn) 897 0.1%
Julian Castro (withdrawn) 760 0.1%
Tom Steyer (withdrawn) 671 0.1%
Deval Patrick (withdrawn) 406 0.0%
Uncommitted 23,726 2.3%
Total 1,050,773 100% 96

Green primary

2020 Maryland Green Party primary[11][12]
Candidate Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Round 4
Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes %
Howie Hawkins 34 53.1% 34 61.8% 34 64.15% 34 68%
Dario Hunter 16 25% 16 29.1% 16 30.18% 16 32%
Kent Mesplay 2 3.1% 3 5.5% 3 5.66% Eliminated
Write-ins 2 3.1% 2 3.6% Eliminated
Sedinam Moyowasiza-Curry 1 1.6% Eliminated
Empty ballot 9 14.1% Eliminated
Total votes 64 100.0%

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[13] Safe D September 10, 2020
Inside Elections[14] Safe D September 4, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[15] Safe D July 14, 2020
Politico[16] Safe D September 8, 2020
RCP[17] Safe D August 3, 2020
Niskanen[18] Safe D July 26, 2020
CNN[19] Safe D August 3, 2020
The Economist[20] Safe D September 2, 2020
CBS News[21] Likely D August 16, 2020
270towin[22] Safe D August 2, 2020
ABC News[23] Safe D July 31, 2020
NPR[24] Likely D August 3, 2020
NBC News[25] Safe D August 6, 2020
538[26] Safe D September 9, 2020

Polling

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Donald
Trump

Republican
Other/
Undecided
[b]
Margin
270 to Win October 7–26 2020 November 3, 2020 60.0% 31.7% 8.3% Biden +28.3
Real Clear Politics September 4 – October 24, 2020 November 3, 2020 60.3% 31.0% 8.7% Biden +29.3
FiveThirtyEight until November 2, 2020 November 3, 2020 63.1% 31.6% 5.3% Biden +31.4
Average 61.1% 31.4% 7.4% Biden +29.7

Polls

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump

Republican
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Jo
Jorgensen

Libertarian
Howie
Hawkins

Green
Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 3,216 (LV) ± 2.5% 31%[d] 66%
Swayable Oct 23 – Nov 1, 2020 503 (LV) ± 5.7% 31% 67% 2% 0%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 1–28, 2020 5,820 (LV) 32% 66%
Gonzalez Maryland Poll Oct 19–24, 2020 820 (RV) ± 3.5% 33% 58% 3%[e] 6%
Goucher College Sep 30 – Oct 4, 2020 776 (LV) ± 3.5% 30% 61% 2% 2% 3%[f] 2%
Change Research/Our Voice Maryland Sep 29 – Oct 1, 2020 650 (V) ± 4.55% 32% 61%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Sep 1–30, 2020 2,364 (LV) 31% 67% 2%
OpinionWorks Sep 4–11, 2020 753 (LV) 30% 62% 3%[g] 5%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Aug 1–31, 2020 1,813 (LV) 31% 66% 3%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jul 1–31, 2020 1,911 (LV) 32% 66% 2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jun 8–30, 2020 1,175 (LV) 34% 64% 2%
Gonzalez Maryland Poll May 19–23, 2020 810 (LV) ± 3.5% 31% 59% 6%
Goucher College Feb 13–19, 2020 718 (LV) ± 3.6% 35% 60% 1%[h] 4%[i]
Former candidates

with Donald Trump and Michael Bloomberg

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Michael
Bloomberg (D)
Undecided
Goucher College Feb 13–19, 2020 718 (LV) ± 3.6% 32% 59%

with Donald Trump and Pete Buttigieg

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Pete
Buttigieg (D)
Undecided
Goucher College Feb 13–19, 2020 718 (LV) ± 3.6% 33% 58%

with Donald Trump and Tulsi Gabbard

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Tulsi
Gabbard (D)
Undecided
Goucher College Feb 13–19, 2020 718 (LV) ± 3.6% 35% 52%

with Donald Trump and Amy Klobuchar

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Amy
Klobuchar (D)
Undecided
Goucher College Feb 13–19, 2020 718 (LV) ± 3.6% 32% 59%

with Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Bernie
Sanders (D)
Undecided
Goucher College Feb 13–19, 2020 718 (LV) ± 3.6% 34% 61%

with Donald Trump and Tom Steyer

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Tom
Steyer (D)
Undecided
Goucher College Feb 13–19, 2020 718 (LV) ± 3.6% 36% 54%

with Donald Trump and Elizabeth Warren

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Elizabeth
Warren (D)
Undecided
Goucher College Feb 13–19, 2020 718 (LV) ± 3.6% 35% 59%
Hypothetical polling

with Donald Trump and Generic Democrat

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Generic
Democrat
Other Undecided
Goucher College Sep 13–18, 2019 548 (RV) ± 4.2% 28% 65% 3%[j] 4%
DFM Research Jan 19–22, 2019 500 (A) ± 4.4% 31% 53% 16%

Results

2020 United States presidential election in Maryland[27]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Joe Biden
Kamala Harris
1,985,023 65.36% +5.03%
Republican Donald Trump
Mike Pence
976,414 32.15% -1.76%
Libertarian Jo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen
33,488 1.10% -1.76%
Green Howie Hawkins
Angela Walker
15,799 0.52% -0.77%
Bread and Roses Jerome Segal
John de Graaf
5,884 0.19% N/A
Write-in 20,422 0.67% -0.94%
Total votes 3,037,030 100%

County summary

County Joe Biden
Democratic
Donald Trump
Republican
Various candidates
Other parties
Margin Total votes cast
# % # % # % # %
Allegany 9,158 29.89% 20,886 68.16% 597 1.95% -11,728 -38.28% 30,641
Anne Arundel 172,823 55.82% 127,821 41.28% 8,973 2.90% 45,002 14.53% 309,617
Baltimore County 258,409 62.28% 146,202 35.24% 10,321 2.49% 112,207 27.04% 414,932
Baltimore City 207,260 87.28% 25,374 10.69% 4,827 2.03% 181,886 76.60% 237,461
Calvert 22,587 45.99% 25,346 51.61% 1,179 2.40% -2,759 -5.62% 49,112
Caroline 5,095 32.26% 10,283 65.11% 416 2.63% -5,188 -32.85% 15,794
Carroll 36,456 36.34% 60,218 60.02% 3,635 3.64% -23,762 -23.68% 100,327
Cecil 16,809 35.42% 29,439 62.03% 1,214 2.56% -12,630 -26.61% 47,462
Charles 62,171 69.47% 25,579 28.58% 1,748 1.95% 36,592 40.89% 89,498
Dorchester 6,857 42.92% 8,764 54.85% 356 2.23% -1,907 -11.94% 15,977
Frederick 77,675 53.34% 63,682 43.73% 4,258 2.92% 13,993 9.61% 145,615
Garrett 3,281 21.02% 12,002 76.88% 328 2.10% -8,721 -55.86% 15,611
Harford 63,095 42.58% 80,930 54.61% 4,161 2.81% -17,835 -12.04% 148,186
Howard 129,433 70.70% 48,390 26.43% 5,240 2.86% 81,043 44.27% 183,063
Kent 5,329 49.37% 5,195 48.13% 270 2.50% 134 1.24% 10,794
Montgomery 419,569 78.61% 101,222 18.96% 12,952 2.43% 318,347 59.64% 533,743
Prince George's 379,208 89.26% 37,090 8.73% 8,557 2.01% 342,118 80.53% 424,855
Queen Anne's 10,709 35.35% 18,741 61.87% 840 2.77% -8,032 -26.52% 30,290
St. Mary's 23,138 41.57% 30,826 55.38% 1,701 3.06% -7,688 -13.81% 55,665
Somerset 4,241 41.80% 5,739 56.56% 167 1.65% -1,498 -14.76% 10,147
Talbot 11,062 49.04% 10,946 48.53% 547 2.43% 116 0.51% 22,555
Washington 26,044 38.42% 40,224 59.35% 1,511 2.23% -14,180 -20.92% 67,779
Wicomico 22,054 47.72% 22,944 49.65% 1,218 2.64% -890 -1.93% 46,216
Worcester 12,560 39.63% 18,571 58.60% 560 1.77% -6,011 -18.97% 31,691
Totals 1,985,023 65.36% 976,414 32.15% 75,594 2.49% 1,008,609 33.21% 3,037,031


Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Biden won 7 of the state's 8 congressional districts. [28]

District Biden Trump Representative
1st 39% 59% Andy Harris
2nd 66% 32% Dutch Ruppersberger
3rd 69% 29% John Sarbanes
4th 79% 19% Anthony Brown
5th 69% 30% Steny Hoyer
6th 61% 38% David Trone
7th 78% 20% Kweisi Mfume
8th 69% 29% Jamie Raskin

See also

Notes

  1. ^ The other sixteen states were, Alabama, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Kentucky, Maine, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Nebraska, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas and Virginia.
  2. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  3. ^ a b c d e f g h i Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  4. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  5. ^ "Someone else" with 3%
  6. ^ "Refused" with 3%
  7. ^ "Someone else" with 3%
  8. ^ "Other" with 1%; would not vote with 0%
  9. ^ Includes "Refused"
  10. ^ "Neither Democratic nor Republican; will vote third party" with 2%; "refused" with 1%

References

  1. ^ "Official Turnout (By Party and County)" (PDF).
  2. ^ Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  3. ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  4. ^ "CQ Almanac Online Edition". library.cqpress.com. Retrieved January 31, 2021.
  5. ^ "Maryland Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 9, 2020.
  6. ^ "County winners, 1836-2016". Google Docs. Retrieved November 15, 2020.
  7. ^ "Maryland postpones April 28 primary election over coronavirus". Politico. March 17, 2020.
  8. ^ "Maryland Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved June 3, 2020.
  9. ^ "2020 Presidential Primary Election Results". Maryland State Board of Elections. Retrieved October 14, 2020.
  10. ^ "Delegate Tracker". interactives.ap.org. Associated Press. Retrieved June 3, 2020.
  11. ^ "HOWIE HAWKINS WINS MARYLAND GREEN PARTY PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY". Maryland Green Party. May 31, 2020. Retrieved June 3, 2020.
  12. ^ "2020 MGP Presidential Data" (PDF). May 31, 2020. Retrieved June 3, 2020.
  13. ^ "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  14. ^ "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  15. ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  16. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
  17. ^ "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
  18. ^ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.
  19. ^ David Chalian; Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
  20. ^ "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
  21. ^ "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
  22. ^ "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
  23. ^ "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
  24. ^ "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
  25. ^ "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
  26. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
  27. ^ "2020 Election Results". Maryland State Board of Elections. Retrieved December 10, 2020.
  28. ^ https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/11/19/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-2020-2016-and-2012

Further reading

External links

This page was last edited on 1 March 2021, at 11:53
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