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2020 United States presidential election in Iowa

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

2020 United States presidential election in Iowa

← 2016 November 3, 2020 2024 →
Turnout75.77%Increase
 
Donald Trump official portrait (cropped).jpg
Joe Biden 2013.jpg
Nominee Donald Trump Joe Biden
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Florida Delaware
Running mate Mike Pence Kamala Harris
Electoral vote 6 0
Popular vote 897,672 759,061
Percentage 53.10% 44.95%

Iowa Presidential Election Results 2020.svg
County results

President before election

Donald Trump
Republican

Elected President

Joe Biden
Democratic

The 2020 United States presidential election in Iowa was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[1] Iowa voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Iowa has six electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]

Trump won the state 53.1% to 44.9%. Prior to this election, most news organizations had considered Iowa as either leaning towards Trump or a tossup. As was the case in Ohio, this election has confirmed Iowa's trend toward the GOP. Iowa had voted Democratic in six of seven elections prior to 2016, with the exception being George W. Bush's narrow plurality win in 2004. In 2016, however, Iowa voted for Trump by an unexpectedly large margin of 9.4%, voting over ten points to the right of the nation overall, indicating a possible realignment of the previously Democratic-leaning state towards the GOP, much as in the case of West Virginia in 2000 and 2004. Even though Biden contested the state,[3] Trump ended up carrying it by an only slightly reduced margin of 8.15% even as his national margin of defeat grew by 2.3%, confirming this trend.

Biden became the first Democratic nominee since Jimmy Carter in 1976 to win the presidency without carrying Iowa, as well as the first since FDR in 1940 to win the presidency without carrying Dubuque County. Biden improved on Hillary Clinton’s margins in the Des Moines and Cedar Rapids metropolitan areas and traditionally conservative western Iowa, the latter which borders Nebraska's 2nd congressional district, an electoral vote Trump won in 2016 but lost in 2020. Trump improved on his 2016 performance in populist northeast and south Iowa.

Per exit polling by the Associated Press, Trump's strength in Iowa came from white voters with no college degree, who comprised 62% of the electorate and supported Trump by 58%–40%. Trump dominated amongst Christian voters, garnering 66% of white Protestants, 54% of white Catholics, and 76% of white born-again/Evangelical Christians. 53% of voters believed Trump was better able to handle international trade.[4] Trump continued to win the cultural message among Iowa's white voters without a college degree.[5]

During the primary season, there remained hope among Democrats that Iowa would still be a contestable state.[6] However, Trump's well-held victory in the state in the general election also saw Republican congressional candidates -- from Senator Joni Ernst to two House seats, both held by Democrats (one vacated by Dave Loebsack in Iowa's 2nd district) -- winning their election.

Neither Biden nor Trump flipped any counties in the state, although Joe Biden came within 2% of flipping Dallas County, an educated suburb of Des Moines.

Iowa is one of three states that voted twice for Barack Obama and Trump, the other two being Ohio and Florida.

Caucuses

The state's caucuses, traditionally the first major electoral event in the country, were held on February 3, 2020.[7]

Republican caucuses

Incumbent president Donald Trump received about 97 percent of the votes in the Republican caucuses, and received 39 of the GOP delegates, while Bill Weld received enough votes to clinch 1 delegate.[8]

Counties won by these popular vote results
Map legend
  •   Trump—100%
  •   Trump—≥95%
  •   Trump—90–95%
  •   Trump—85–90%
Congressional districts won by these popular vote results
Map legend
  •   Trump—≥95%
2020 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses[9][10]
Candidate Votes % Estimated
delegates
Donald Trump 31,465 97.1 39
William Weld 426 1.3 1
Joe Walsh 348 1.1 0
Other 151 0.5 0
Total 32,389 100% 40

Democratic caucuses

After a three-day delay in votes being reported, the Iowa Democratic Party declared that Pete Buttigieg had narrowly won the state delegate equivalent (SDE) count of the Democratic caucuses with 26.2 percent. Bernie Sanders came in second with 26.1 percent of the SDEs, despite the fact that he received more popular votes (26.5 percent) than Buttigieg (25.1 percent). Elizabeth Warren, Joe Biden, and Amy Klobuchar finished in third, fourth, and fifth place, respectively.[11]

2020 Iowa Democratic presidential caucuses[12][13][14]
Candidate Initial
alignment
Final
alignment[a]
State delegate
equivalents
Pledged
national
convention
delegates[15][b]
Votes % Votes % Number %
Joe Biden 26,291 14.9 23,605 13.7 340.3238 15.8 [c]14
Pete Buttigieg 37,572 21.3 43,209 25.1 562.9538 26.17 [d]12
Bernie Sanders 43,581 24.7 45,652 26.5 562.0214 26.13 [e]9
Elizabeth Warren 32,589 18.5 34,909 20.3 388.4403 18.1 [f]5
Amy Klobuchar 22,454 12.7 21,100 12.2 263.8689 12.3 [g]1
Andrew Yang 8,914 5.1 1,758 1.0 21.8559 1.0
Tom Steyer 3,061 1.7 413 0.2 6.6189 0.3
Michael Bloomberg (did not run yet) 212 0.1 16 0.0 0.2096 0.0
Tulsi Gabbard 341 0.2 16 0.0 0.1143 0.0
Michael Bennet 164 0.1 4 0.0 0.0000 0.0
Deval Patrick 9 0.0 0 0.0 0.0000 0.0
John Delaney (withdrawn) 0 0.0 0 0.0 0.0000 0.0
Other / Write-in 155 0.1 198 0.1 0.6931 0.0
Uncommitted 1,009 0.6 1,420 0.8 3.7321 0.2
Totals[h] 176,352 100% 172,300 100% 2,150.8321 100% 41

Libertarian caucuses

The Libertarian Party of Iowa conducted their own caucuses on February 8, offering in-person caucus locations and an online virtual caucus. Only registered Libertarian voters were eligible to participate.[17][18]

Election results by county.  Jacob Hornberger  Ken Armstrong  Dan Behrman  Lincoln Chafee  Jo Jorgensen  Adam Kokesh  John McAfee  Sam Robb  Vermin Supreme  Tie  No votes
Election results by county.
  Jacob Hornberger
  Ken Armstrong
  Dan Behrman
  Lincoln Chafee
  Jo Jorgensen
  Adam Kokesh
  John McAfee
  Sam Robb
  Vermin Supreme
  Tie
  No votes
Iowa Libertarian presidential caucus, February 8, 2020[19]
Candidate Votes Percentage
Jacob Hornberger 133 47.52%
Lincoln Chafee 36 12.77%
Jo Jorgensen 18 6.38%
Adam Kokesh 17 6.03%
Dan Behrman 14 4.96%
John McAfee 10 3.55%
Vermin Supreme 9 3.19%
Other (write-in) 8 2.84%
None of the above 8 2.84%
Sam Robb 7 2.48%
Max Abramson 6 2.13%
Mark Whitney 4 1.42%
Arvin Vohra 3 1.06%
Ken Armstrong 2 0.71%
Souraya Faas 2 0.71%
Benjamin Leder 1 0.35%
John Monds 1 0.35%
Total 281 100%

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[20] Tossup October 6, 2020
Inside Elections[21] Tossup October 6, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[22] Lean R November 2, 2020
Politico[23] Tossup October 12, 2020
RCP[24] Tossup October 6, 2020
Niskanen[25] Tossup October 6, 2020
CNN[26] Tossup October 7, 2020
The Economist[27] Tossup October 6, 2020
CBS News[28] Tossup October 6, 2020
270towin[29] Tossup October 6, 2020
ABC News[30] Tossup October 6, 2020
NPR[31] Tossup October 9, 2020
NBC News[32] Tossup October 6, 2020
538[33] Lean R November 2, 2020

Polling

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Donald
Trump

Republican
Other/
Undecided
[i]
Margin
270 to Win October 26 – Nov 2, 2020 November 2, 2020 46.2% 47.8% 6.0% Trump +1.6
Real Clear Politics October 21–30, 2020 November 2, 2020 45.8% 47.2% 7.0% Trump +1.4
FiveThirtyEight until November 1, 2020 November 2, 2020 46.1% 47.5% 6.4% Trump +1.4
Average 46.0% 47.5% 6.5% Trump +1.5

Polls

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[j]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump

Republican
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Jo
Jorgensen

Libertarian
Howie
Hawkins

Green
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling Nov 1–2, 2020 871 (V) 48% 49% - - 2%[k] 1%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 1,489 (LV) ± 3.5% 51%[l] 48% - -
Change Research Oct 29 – Nov 1, 2020 1,084 (LV) ± 3.2% 47% 47% 3% 0% 2%[m] 1%
Civiqs/Daily Kos Oct 29 – Nov 1, 2020 853 (LV) ± 3.7% 48% 49% - - 3%[n] 0%
Data for Progress Oct 27 – Nov 1, 2020 951 (LV) ± 3.2% 49% 47% 3% 1% 1%[o]
Emerson College Oct 29–31, 2020 604 (LV) ± 3.9% 49%[p] 47% - - 4% 0%
InsiderAdvantage/Center for American Greatness[A] Oct 30, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 48% 46% 1% - 6%
Selzer & Co./Des Moines Register Oct 26–29, 2020 814 (LV) ± 3.4% 48% 41% - - 8%[q] 2%[r]
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 1–28, 2020 3,005 (LV) ± 2.5% 50% 49% - - - 2%
Quinnipiac University Oct 23–27, 2020 1,225 (LV) ± 2.8% 47% 46% - - 1%[s] 6%
RABA Research/WHO13 News Oct 21–24, 2020 693 (LV) ± 4% 46% 50% - - 2%[t] 1%
Emerson College Oct 19–21, 2020 435 (LV) ± 4.7% 48%[u] 48% - - 4%[v] 0%
RMG Research/PoliticalIQ Oct 15–21, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 47%[w] 47% - - 2%[x] 4%
45%[y] 49% - - 2%[z] 4%
49%[aa] 48% - - 2%[ab] 4%
Siena College/NYT Upshot Oct 18–20, 2020 753 (LV) ± 3.9% 43% 46% 2% 1% 1%[ac] 7%[ad]
Insider Advantage/Center for American Greatness[A] Oct 18–19, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 45% 45% 2% - 8%
Monmouth University Oct 15–19, 2020 501 (RV) ± 4.4% 48% 47% 1% 0%[ae] 2%[af] 2%
501 (LV)[ag] 47% 50% - -
501 (LV)[ah] 46% 51% - -
David Binder Research/Focus on Rural America Oct 10–13, 2020 200 (LV) 50% 44% - -
Data for Progress (D) Oct 8–11, 2020 822 (LV) ± 3.4% 48% 47% 2% 0% 3%
YouGov/CBS Oct 6–9, 2020 1,035 (LV) ± 3.5% 49% 49% - - 2%[ai] 0%
Opinion Insight/American Action Forum[B] Oct 5–8, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.46% 46%[aj] 47% - - 3%[ak] 4%[al]
Civiqs/Daily Kos Oct 3–6, 2020 756 (LV) ± 3.9% 47% 48% - - 4%[am] 1%
Quinnipiac University Oct 1–5, 2020 1,205 (LV) ± 2.8% 45% 50% - - 2%[an] 3%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Sep 1–30, 2020 1,276 (LV) 52% 46% - - 2%
Data for Progress (D) Sep 23–28, 2020 743 (LV) ± 3.6% 47%[w] 44% 1% 1% 6%
50%[ao] 45% - - 5%
Hart Research Associates/Human Rights Campaign[C] Sep 24–27, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 49% 47% - -
RABA Research/WHO13 News Sep 23–26, 2020 780 (LV) ± 4% 46% 48% - - 2%[ap] 4%
Monmouth University Sep 18–22, 2020 402 (RV) ± 4.9% 50% 44% 2% 0% 1%[aq] 2%
402 (LV) 49%[ag] 46% 2% 2%[ar] 2%
49%[ah] 46% 2% 2%[as] 2%
Siena College/NYT Upshot Sep 16–22, 2020 501 (LV) ± 4.99% 42% 45% 2% 0% 1%[at] 10%[au]
Selzer & Co./Des Moines Register Sep 14–17, 2020 658 (LV) ± 3.8% 47% 47% - - 4%[av] 3%
Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates/AARP Aug 30 – Sep 5, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 47% 45% - - 1%[aw] 6%
Opinion Insight/American Action Forum[B] Aug 30 – Sep 2, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.46% 51%[ax] 43% 3% 1% 2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Aug 1–31, 2020 983 (LV) 53% 46% - - 2%
Monmouth University Jul 30 – Aug 3, 2020 401 (RV) ± 4.9% 48% 45% 3% - <1%[ay] 3%
401 (LV) 48%[az] 46% 2% <1%[ba] 3%
47%[bb] 47% 2% 0%[bc] 3%
Data for Progress Jul 24 – Aug 2, 2020 1,101 (LV) 44%[w] 42% 3% 1% 10%
46%[bd] 45% - - 9%
David Binder Research/Focus on Rural America Jul 30–31, 2020 200 (LV) 43% 49% - -
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jul 1–31, 2020 1,095 (LV) 54% 45% - - 1%
RMG Research Jul 27–30, 2020 500 (RV) ± 4.5% 41% 40% - - 7% 13%
Public Policy Polling/AFSCME[D] Jul 23–24, 2020 1,118 (V) 48% 47% - - 6%
Spry Strategies/American Principles Project[E] Jul 11–16, 2020 701 (LV) ± 3.7% 46% 48% - - 7%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jun 8–30, 2020 455 (LV) 50% 48% - - 2%
Selzer/Des Moines Register Jun 7–10, 2020 674 (LV) ± 3.8% 44% 43% - - 10%[be] 3%
Civiqs/Daily Kos Jun 6–8, 2020 865 (RV) ± 3.8% 46% 46% - - 7%[bf] 1%
Public Policy Polling/Emily's List[F] Jun 3–4, 2020 963 (V) 48% 47% - - 5%
Public Policy Polling[1] Apr 30 – May 1, 2020 1,222 (V) ± 2.8% 48% 46% - - 6%
GBAO Strategies/PLUS Paid Family Leave Apr 13–16, 2020 500 (LV) 48% 45% - - 1% 6%
Selzer/Des Moines Register Mar 2–5, 2020 667 (LV) ± 3.8% 51% 41% - -
The New York Times/Siena College Jan 20–23, 2020 1,689 (RV) ± 2.8% 46% 44% - - 5%[bg] 6%
Public Policy Polling Dec 29–31, 2019 964 (V) 49% 46% - - 5%
Emerson College Dec 7–10, 2019 1,043 (RV) ± 3% 49% 45% - - 6%
NYT Upshot/Siena College Oct 25–30, 2019 1,435 (RV) ± 3.1% 45% 44% - - 3% 5%
Emerson College Oct 13–16, 2019 888 (RV) ± 3.2% 51% 49% - -
WPA Intelligence (R) Apr 27–30, 2019 200 (LV) ± 6.9% 49% 44% - - 5%
Emerson College Mar 21–24, 2019 707 (RV) ± 3.6% 47% 53% - -
Emerson College Jan 30 – Feb 2, 2019 831 (RV) ± 3.4% 49% 51% - -
Former candidates

Donald Trump vs. Michael Bloomberg

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[j]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Michael
Bloomberg (D)
Other Undecided
Des Moines Register/Selzer & Co. Mar 2–5, 2020 667 (LV) ± 3.8% 53%[bh] 34%
The New York Times/Siena College Jan 20–23, 2020 1,689 (RV) ± 2.8% 47% 39% 7%[bi] 8%

Donald Trump vs. Cory Booker

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[j]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Cory
Booker (D)
Undecided
Emerson College Mar 21–24, 2019 707 (RV) ± 3.6% 52% 48%

Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[j]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Pete
Buttigieg (D)
Other Undecided
The New York Times/Siena College Jan 20–23, 2020 1,689 (RV) ± 2.8% 45% 44% 4%[bj] 7%
Public Policy Polling Jan 2–4, 2020 964 (V) 48% 47% 5%
Emerson College Dec 7–10, 2019 1,043 (RV) ± 3% 46% 45% 9%
NYT Upshot/Siena College Oct 25–30, 2019 1,435 (RV) ± 3.1% 45% 41% 3% 8%

Donald Trump vs. Kirsten Gillibrand

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[j]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Kirsten
Gillibrand (D)
Undecided
Emerson College Jan 30 – Feb 2, 2019 831 (RV) ± 3.4% 54% 46%

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[j]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Kamala
Harris (D)
Undecided
Emerson College Mar 21–24, 2019 707 (RV) ± 3.6% 54% 46%
Emerson College Jan 30 – Feb 2, 2019 831 (RV) ± 3.4% 53% 47%

Donald Trump vs. Amy Klobuchar

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[j]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Amy
Klobuchar (D)
Other Undecided
The New York Times/Siena College Jan 20–23, 2020 1,689 (RV) ± 2.8% 46% 41% 5%[bk] 8%

Donald Trump vs. Beto O'Rourke

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[j]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Beto
O'Rourke (D)
Undecided
Emerson College Jan 30 – Feb 2, 2019 831 (RV) ± 3.4% 53% 47%

Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[j]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Bernie
Sanders (D)
Other Undecided
Des Moines Register/Selzer & Co. Mar 2–5, 2020 667 (LV) ± 3.8% 53% 41%
The New York Times/Siena College Jan 20–23, 2020 1,689 (RV) ± 2.8% 48% 42% 4%[bl] 6%
Public Policy Polling Dec 29–31, 2019 964 (V) 49% 44% 7%
Emerson College Dec 7–10, 2019 1,043 (RV) ± 3% 50% 43% 7%
NYT Upshot/Siena College Oct 25–30, 2019 1,435 (RV) ± 3.1% 47% 43% 3% 4%
Emerson College Oct 13–16, 2019 888 (RV) ± 3.2% 49% 51%
Emerson College Mar 21–24, 2019 707 (RV) ± 3.6% 49% 51%
Emerson College Jan 30 – Feb 2, 2019 831 (RV) ± 3.4% 51% 50%

Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[j]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Elizabeth
Warren (D)
Other Undecided
Des Moines Register/Selzer & Co. Mar 2–5, 2020 667 (LV) ± 3.8% 52%[bh] 40%
The New York Times/Siena College Jan 20–23, 2020 1,689 (RV) ± 2.8% 47% 42% 5%[bm] 7%
Public Policy Polling Jan 2–4, 2020 964 (V) 49% 44% 7%
Emerson College Dec 7–10, 2019 1,043 (RV) ± 3% 50% 43% ± 3% 7%
NYT Upshot/Siena College Oct 25–30, 2019 1,435 (RV) ± 3.1% 47% 40% 2% 7%
Emerson College Oct 13–16, 2019 888 (RV) ± 3.2% 51% 49%
Emerson College Mar 21–24, 2019 707 (RV) ± 3.6% 51% 49%
Emerson College Jan 30 – Feb 2, 2019 831 (RV) ± 3.4% 52% 48%
Hypothetical polling

with Donald Trump and Sherrod Brown

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[j]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Sherrod
Brown (D)
Undecided
Emerson College Jan 30 – Feb 2, 2019 831 (RV) ± 3.4% 55% 46%

with Donald Trump and Nancy Pelosi

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[j]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Nancy
Pelosi (D)
Undecided
Emerson College Jan 30 – Feb 2, 2019 831 (RV) ± 3.4% 55% 45%

with Donald Trump, Bernie Sanders, and Howard Schultz

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[j]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Bernie
Sanders (D)
Howard
Schultz (I)
Undecided
Emerson College Mar 21–24, 2019 707 (RV) ± 3.6% 47% 46% 8%

with Donald Trump, Elizabeth Warren, and Howard Schultz

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[j]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Elizabeth
Warren (D)
Howard
Schultz (I)
Undecided
Emerson College Mar 21–24, 2019 707 (RV) ± 3.6% 48% 45% 7%
Emerson College Jan 30 – Feb 2, 2019 831 (RV) ± 3.4% 49% 40% 11%

with Donald Trump and generic Democrat

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[j]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Generic
Democrat
Undecided
Public Policy Polling/End Citizens United[G] Dec 13–15, 2019 944 (V) 47% 49% 3%
Public Policy Polling Apr 29–30, 2019 780 (V) ± 3.5% 48% 48%

Results

2020 United States presidential election in Iowa[34]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Donald Trump
Mike Pence
897,672 53.10% +2.00%
Democratic Joe Biden
Kamala Harris
759,061 44.95% +3.20%
Libertarian Jo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen
19,637 1.16% -2.62%
Independent Kanye West
Michelle Tidball
3,210 0.19% N/A
Green Howie Hawkins
Angela Walker
3,075 0.18% -0.55%
Constitution Don Blankenship
William Mohr
1,707 0.10% -0.24%
Alliance Rocky De La Fuente
Darcy Richardson
1,082 0.06% N/A
Genealogy Know Your Family History Ricki Sue King
Dayna Chandler
546 0.03% N/A
Independent Brock Pierce
Karla Ballard
544 0.03% N/A
Write-in 4,337 0.38% -1.09%
Total votes 1,690,871 100.00%

Results by county

County Donald Trump
Republican
Joe Biden
Democratic
Jo Jorgensen
Libertarian
Other votes Total
votes
% # % # % # % #
Adair 69.83% 2,917 28.68% 1,198 0.84% 35 0.65% 27 4,177
Adams 70.83% 1,530 27.31% 590 1.25% 27 0.60% 13 2,160
Allamakee 63.80% 4,735 34.71% 2,576 0.96% 71 0.54% 40 7,422
Appanoose 69.24% 4,512 29.02% 1,891 1.10% 72 0.63% 41 6,516
Audubon 67.11% 2,295 31.32% 1,071 0.94% 32 0.64% 22 3,420
Benton 62.75% 9,188 35.24% 5,160 1.27% 186 0.74% 108 14,642
Black Hawk 44.51% 29,640 53.53% 35,647 1.08% 722 0.88% 584 66,593
Boone 56.68% 8,695 41.09% 6,303 1.29% 198 0.94% 144 15,340
Bremer 57.02% 8,294 40.96% 5,958 1.27% 185 0.75% 109 14,546
Buchanan 59.59% 6,420 38.70% 4,169 0.89% 96 0.83% 89 10,774
Buena Vista 61.91% 5,056 36.26% 2,961 0.81% 66 1.03% 84 8,167
Butler 68.44% 5,542 29.93% 2,424 0.84% 68 0.79% 64 8,098
Calhoun 70.16% 3,689 27.96% 1,470 1.12% 59 0.76% 40 5,258
Carroll 68.26% 7,737 30.47% 3,454 0.60% 68 0.67% 76 11,335
Cass 68.29% 4,969 30.25% 2,201 0.84% 61 0.62% 45 7,276
Cedar 57.56% 6,161 40.52% 4,337 1.16% 124 0.76% 81 10,703
Cerro Gordo 52.28% 12,442 45.97% 10,941 0.82% 196 0.93% 222 23,801
Cherokee 68.96% 4,495 29.70% 1,936 0.74% 48 0.60% 39 6,518
Chickasaw 64.97% 4,308 33.68% 2,233 0.71% 47 0.65% 43 6,631
Clarke 67.32% 3,144 31.39% 1,466 0.73% 34 0.56% 26 4,670
Clay 68.42% 6,137 29.68% 2,662 1.13% 101 0.77% 69 8,969
Clayton 63.64% 6,106 34.81% 3,340 0.85% 82 0.69% 66 9,594
Clinton 54.13% 13,361 43.81% 10,812 1.27% 314 0.79% 194 24,681
Crawford 67.85% 4,854 31.03% 2,220 0.59% 42 0.53% 38 7,154
Dallas 49.96% 27,987 47.98% 26,879 1.33% 744 0.73% 412 56,022
Davis 73.92% 3,032 24.70% 1,013 0.73% 30 0.66% 27 4,102
Decatur 68.74% 2,615 29.44% 1,120 0.76% 29 1.05% 40 3,804
Delaware 66.64% 6,666 31.56% 3,157 0.87% 87 0.93% 93 10,003
Des Moines 53.08% 10,592 44.56% 8,893 1.38% 275 0.98% 196 19,956
Dickinson 66.15% 7,438 32.56% 3,661 0.82% 92 0.47% 53 11,244
Dubuque 50.47% 27,214 47.58% 25,657 1.03% 556 0.93% 499 53,926
Emmet 67.28% 3,265 31.32% 1,520 0.74% 36 0.66% 32 4,853
Fayette 60.33% 6,145 37.65% 3,835 1.00% 102 1.02% 104 10,186
Floyd 58.91% 4,732 39.49% 3,172 0.78% 63 0.81% 65 8,032
Franklin 66.71% 3,422 31.70% 1,626 0.88% 45 0.72% 37 5,130
Fremont 70.29% 2,711 28.00% 1,080 0.96% 37 0.75% 29 3,857
Greene 63.73% 3,223 34.98% 1,769 0.71% 36 0.57% 29 5,057
Grundy 67.74% 4,929 30.32% 2,206 1.20% 87 0.74% 54 7,276
Guthrie 67.05% 4,272 31.16% 1,985 1.24% 79 0.55% 35 6,371
Hamilton 62.39% 4,956 35.79% 2,843 0.89% 71 0.92% 73 7,943
Hancock 71.13% 4,390 27.27% 1,683 0.79% 49 0.81% 50 6,172
Hardin 65.08% 5,850 33.11% 2,976 1.17% 105 0.65% 58 8,989
Harrison 68.29% 5,569 29.92% 2,440 1.04% 85 0.75% 61 8,155
Henry 65.19% 6,507 32.81% 3,275 1.28% 128 0.72% 72 9,982
Howard 63.07% 3,127 35.74% 1,772 0.46% 23 0.73% 36 4,958
Humboldt 71.69% 3,819 27.07% 1,442 0.73% 39 0.51% 27 5,327
Ida 74.82% 2,880 23.82% 917 0.70% 27 0.65% 25 3,849
Iowa 61.68% 6,009 36.41% 3,547 1.05% 102 0.87% 84 9,742
Jackson 62.33% 6,940 36.18% 4,029 0.71% 79 0.78% 87 11,135
Jasper 59.87% 12,084 38.33% 7,737 1.03% 207 0.77% 156 20,184
Jefferson 49.59% 4,443 48.21% 4,319 1.06% 95 1.14% 102 8,959
Johnson 27.34% 22,925 70.57% 59,177 1.15% 964 0.94% 785 83,851
Jones 59.81% 6,572 38.34% 4,213 1.07% 118 0.78% 86 10,989
Keokuk 71.60% 3,797 26.66% 1,414 0.96% 51 0.77% 41 5,303
Kossuth 69.03% 6,275 29.66% 2,696 0.67% 61 0.64% 58 9,090
Lee 58.40% 9,773 39.09% 6,541 1.43% 240 1.08% 180 16,734
Linn 41.87% 53,364 55.61% 70,874 1.58% 2,015 0.94% 1,205 127,458
Louisa 65.64% 3,500 32.37% 1,726 1.26% 67 0.73% 39 5,332
Lucas 70.99% 3,287 27.73% 1,284 0.65% 30 0.63% 29 4,630
Lyon 83.16% 5,707 15.55% 1,067 0.82% 56 0.48% 33 6,863
Madison 66.24% 6,507 31.90% 3,134 1.26% 124 0.60% 59 9,824
Mahaska 72.76% 8,297 25.38% 2,894 1.18% 134 0.69% 79 11,404
Marion 65.84% 12,663 32.12% 6,178 1.21% 233 0.82% 158 19,232
Marshall 52.77% 9,571 45.08% 8,176 1.19% 216 0.95% 173 18,136
Mills 67.55% 5,585 30.33% 2,508 1.21% 100 0.90% 75 8,268
Mitchell 63.16% 3,677 35.26% 2,053 0.96% 56 0.62% 36 5,822
Monona 68.70% 3,248 29.76% 1,407 0.76% 36 0.79% 37 4,728
Monroe 72.77% 2,975 26.37% 1,078 0.51% 21 0.34% 14 4,088
Montgomery 68.69% 3,659 29.72% 1,583 0.94% 50 0.66% 35 5,327
Muscatine 52.36% 10,823 45.34% 9,372 1.42% 293 0.89% 183 20,671
O'Brien 77.62% 5,861 20.78% 1,569 1.02% 77 0.58% 44 7,551
Osceola 80.83% 2,690 18.06% 601 0.54% 18 0.57% 19 3,328
Page 70.66% 5,319 27.71% 2,086 1.01% 76 0.62% 47 7,528
Palo Alto 67.97% 3,370 30.64% 1,519 0.87% 43 0.52% 26 4,958
Plymouth 73.95% 10,492 24.63% 3,494 0.79% 112 0.63% 90 14,188
Pocahontas 73.92% 2,826 24.40% 933 0.97% 37 0.71% 27 3,823
Polk 41.27% 106,800 56.52% 146,250 1.28% 3,322 0.93% 2,383 258,755
Pottawattamie 57.38% 26,247 40.61% 18,575 1.21% 552 0.81% 370 45,744
Poweshiek 55.79% 5,657 42.47% 4,306 0.89% 90 0.86% 87 10,140
Ringgold 72.51% 1,968 26.12% 709 0.66% 18 0.70% 19 2,714
Sac 73.37% 4,061 25.09% 1,389 0.85% 47 0.69% 38 5,535
Scott 47.17% 43,683 50.68% 46,926 1.21% 1,124 0.94% 866 92,599
Shelby 69.12% 4,697 28.83% 1,959 1.22% 83 0.82% 56 6,795
Sioux 82.31% 15,680 15.85% 3,019 0.89% 170 0.96% 182 19,051
Story 39.85% 20,340 57.16% 29,175 1.81% 924 0.78% 398 51,038
Tama 58.61% 5,303 39.53% 3,577 0.96% 87 0.90% 81 9,048
Taylor 75.81% 2,463 22.96% 746 0.52% 17 0.71% 23 3,249
Union 64.83% 4,010 33.32% 2,061 0.99% 61 0.86% 53 6,185
Van Buren 75.42% 2,859 23.08% 875 0.61% 23 0.90% 34 3,791
Wapello 60.87% 9,516 37.24% 5,821 1.28% 200 0.61% 96 15,633
Warren 57.29% 17,782 40.51% 12,574 1.39% 430 0.82% 253 31,039
Washington 59.25% 6,971 38.77% 4,561 1.22% 144 0.76% 89 11,765
Wayne 75.20% 2,338 23.38% 727 0.64% 20 0.77% 24 3,109
Webster 61.37% 10,938 37.11% 6,613 0.72% 128 0.80% 143 17,822
Winnebago 62.09% 3,707 35.76% 2,135 1.21% 72 0.94% 56 5,970
Winneshiek 51.68% 6,235 46.56% 5,617 0.93% 112 0.83% 100 12,064
Woodbury 57.63% 25,736 41.23% 18,704 0.96% 435 1.07% 487 45,362
Worth 61.97% 2,738 36.12% 1,596 0.86% 38 1.04% 46 4,418
Wright 66.13% 4,136 31.92% 1,996 1.12% 70 0.83% 52 6,254

Results by congressional district

District Trump Biden Representative
1st 50.79% 47.38% Abby Finkenauer
Ashley Hinson
2nd 51.10% 47.10% Dave Loebsack
Mariannette Miller-Meeks
3rd 49.15% 49.02% Cindy Axne
4th 62.68% 35.73% Steve King
Randy Feenstra

See also

Notes

  1. ^ Final vote after votes for candidates below the 15% viability threshold in each precinct are reallocated to other viable candidates.
  2. ^ In Iowa, the presidential caucuses only are the first determining step for the delegate distribution, the final step are the decisions on the district conventions and the much later state convention. According to the provisions set by the Iowa Democratic Party's "Delegate Selection Plan", statewide delegates preliminarily awarded to other candidates had to be reallocated at the state convention on June 13, as their pledged candidates had dropped out, while the already early decided district delegates remain fixed.
  3. ^ Originally placed fourth with 6 delegates. 8 of the 12 statewide delegates initially awarded to Buttigieg (2), Sanders (3) and Warren (3), who had withdrawn in the meantime, had to be reallocated to Biden as the sole remaining viable contender and were added to his own 2 statewide delegates at the state convention on June 13.[15][16]
  4. ^ Original winner with 14 delegates. Due to his withdrawal in March, 2 of the 5 statewide delegates mathematically won by Buttigieg were reallocated to Biden at the state convention on June 13.[15][16]
  5. ^ Original runner-up with 12 delegates. Due to his withdrawal in April, 3 of the 4 statewide delegates mathematically won by Sanders were reallocated to Biden at the state convention on June 13.[15][16]
  6. ^ Originally placed third with 8 delegates. Due to her withdrawal in March, all of the 3 statewide delegates mathematically won by Warren were reallocated to Biden at the state convention on June 13.[15][16]
  7. ^ Falling short of 15% on state level and in three of four districts, Klobuchar only surpassed the treshold in one district and won 1 delegate there.
  8. ^ Per the Iowa Democratic Party official report.[13]
  9. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  10. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  11. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  12. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  13. ^ "Don't recall" with 2%
  14. ^ "Someone else" with 3%
  15. ^ "Other candidate or write-in" with 1%
  16. ^ With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  17. ^ "Refused" with 5%; "Someone else" with 3%; would not vote with 0%
  18. ^ Includes "Do not remember"
  19. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
  20. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  21. ^ With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  22. ^ "Someone else" with 4%
  23. ^ a b c Standard VI response
  24. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  25. ^ Results generated with high Democratic turnout model
  26. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  27. ^ Results generated with high Republican turnout model
  28. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  29. ^ "Someone else" with 1%; would not vote with 0%
  30. ^ Includes "Refused"
  31. ^ No voters
  32. ^ "Another candidate" and "No one" with 1%
  33. ^ a b With a likely voter turnout model featuring higher turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
  34. ^ a b With a likely voter turnout model featuring lower turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
  35. ^ "Other third party" with 2%
  36. ^ With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  37. ^ "One of the other candidates" with 2%; West (B) with 1%
  38. ^ Includes "Refused"
  39. ^ "Someone else" with 4%
  40. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  41. ^ If the only candidates were Biden and Trump
  42. ^ "Other candidate" with 2%
  43. ^ "Another candidate" with 1%; "No one" with no voters
  44. ^ "Hawkins/Other" with 2%
  45. ^ "Hawkins/Other" with 2%
  46. ^ "Someone else" with 1%; Would not vote with 0%
  47. ^ Includes "Refused"
  48. ^ "Someone else" with 4%
  49. ^ Would not vote with 1%
  50. ^ With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  51. ^ "Other" and "No-one" with <1%
  52. ^ With a likely voter turnout model featuring higher turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
  53. ^ "Other" with <1%
  54. ^ With a likely voter turnout model featuring lower turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
  55. ^ "Other" with 0%
  56. ^ If the only candidates were Biden and Trump
  57. ^ "Someone else" with 9%; would not vote with 1%
  58. ^ "Someone else" with 7%
  59. ^ Other with 2%; would not vote with 3%
  60. ^ a b Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  61. ^ Other with 3%; would not vote with 4%
  62. ^ Other with 1%; would not vote with 3%
  63. ^ Other with 2%; would not vote with 3%
  64. ^ Other with 2%; would not vote with 2%
  65. ^ Other with 2%; would not vote with 3%
Partisan clients
  1. ^ a b The Center for American Greatness is a pro-Trump organization
  2. ^ a b The American Action Forum is a 501 organisation which usually supports Republican candidates
  3. ^ The Human Rights Campaign endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period
  4. ^ AFSCME endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period
  5. ^ This poll's sponsor is the American Principles Project, a 501(c)(4) organization that supports the Republican Party.
  6. ^ Emily's List is an organisation that supports Democratic female candidates
  7. ^ End Citizens United PAC has exclusively endorsed Democratic candidates

References

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  2. ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  3. ^ Pfannenstiel, Brianne. "Joe Biden, Mike Pence to campaign in Iowa this week, underscoring competitive presidential race". Des Moines Register. Retrieved January 18, 2021.
  4. ^ "Iowa Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 9, 2020.
  5. ^ "Down on the farm with Trump". Bleeding Heartland. April 16, 2020. Retrieved November 9, 2020.
  6. ^ Alberta, Tim. "Whoever Wins Iowa, They Won't Be Back". POLITICO. Retrieved January 4, 2021.
  7. ^ Pfannenstiel, Brianne (August 25, 2018). "Countdown begins to 2020: Date of Iowa Democratic caucuses set for Feb. 3". The Des Moines Register. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  8. ^ "Live Results:Iowa Republican Caucuses". The New York Times. February 3, 2020. Retrieved February 3, 2020.
  9. ^ "Iowa Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved February 12, 2020.
  10. ^ "Live Results:Iowa Republican Caucuses". The New York Times. February 3, 2020. Retrieved February 3, 2020.
  11. ^ "Iowa caucus results: Buttigieg, Sanders in a near tie, with 100% of results published". USA TODAY. February 6, 2020. Retrieved February 7, 2020.
  12. ^ "Live: Iowa Caucus Results 2020". The New York Times. Retrieved February 27, 2020.
  13. ^ a b "IDP Caucus 2020 (100% reporting: 1765 of 1765 precincts)". Iowa Democratic Party. Retrieved February 20, 2020.
  14. ^ Levy, Adam; Merica, Dan (March 1, 2020). "Iowa Democratic Party certifies Buttigieg's Iowa lead amid Sanders challenge". CNN.com. Retrieved March 1, 2020.
  15. ^ a b c d e "2020 Presidential Primaries, Caucuses, and Conventions: Iowa Democrat". The Green Papers. Retrieved July 4, 2020.
  16. ^ a b c d "Iowa Democratic Party Announces Delegation to National Convention". iowademocrats.org. June 13, 2020. Retrieved August 20, 2020.
  17. ^ "Libertarian's announce caucus results". Knoxville Journal Express. February 10, 2020. Retrieved February 18, 2020.
  18. ^ McDaniel, Tiffany (February 10, 2020). "Low voter turnout at the Iowa Libertarian Party Caucus". The Oskaloosa Herald. Retrieved February 18, 2020.
  19. ^ Howe, Joseph (February 8, 2020). "Libertarian Party Of Iowa Presidential Caucus Winner And Results". Libertarian Party of Iowa. Retrieved February 8, 2020.
  20. ^ "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  21. ^ "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  22. ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved November 2, 2020.
  23. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
  24. ^ "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
  25. ^ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.
  26. ^ David Chalian; Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
  27. ^ "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
  28. ^ "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
  29. ^ "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
  30. ^ "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
  31. ^ "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
  32. ^ "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
  33. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
  34. ^ "Election Canvass Summary" (PDF). Iowa Secretary of State. Retrieved November 30, 2020.

Further reading

External links

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