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2020 United States presidential election in Hawaii

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

2020 United States presidential election in Hawaii

← 2016 November 3, 2020 2024 →
Turnout69.65% Increase[1]
 
Joe Biden 2013.jpg
Donald Trump official portrait (cropped).jpg
Nominee Joe Biden Donald Trump
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Delaware Florida
Running mate Kamala Harris Mike Pence
Electoral vote 4 0
Popular vote 366,130 196,864
Percentage 63.73% 34.27%

Hawaii Presidential Election Results 2020.svg
County Results
Biden
  60–70%
  70–80%


President before election

Donald Trump
Republican

Elected President

Joe Biden
Democratic

The 2020 United States presidential election in Hawaii was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[2] Hawaii voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Hawaii has four electoral votes in the Electoral College.[3]

Hawaii was the first state in the 2020 election cycle to exceed the voter turnout in 2016, causing the state to attract attention as a representation of an overall trend in increased early voting during the general election.[4]

Biden won Hawaii with 63.7% of the vote and a 29.5% margin over Trump, who earned 34.3%. Both major parties improved over 2016, when third parties earned nearly 8% of the vote; Biden's percentage of the vote was slightly higher than Hillary Clinton's 62.9%, while Trump improved over his 30.3% share of the 2016 vote. However, Biden's margin of victory was slightly smaller than Clinton's 32.6%. Hawaii was one of only seven states and the District of Columbia where Trump's margin increased from 2016, and its 2.7% shift was the largest. Despite this modest pro-Trump margin swing, Biden won the state by more votes than Clinton, as was the case for the other three states (California, Nevada and Illinois) and the District of Columbia that he won.[5] Hawaii was one of three states where Biden won every county, the other two being Massachusetts and Rhode Island. It was the eighth consecutive election that the Democratic nominee carried every county in the state. Despite his overwhelming victory here, this was the first election since 2004 in which Hawaii was not the most Democratic state in terms of margin or percentage, that title went to Vermont instead.

Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Biden's strength in Hawaii came from progressive whites with 63%, and Asians with 66%.[6] Japanese Americans make up a large percentage of Hawaii, and they are among the most Democratic constituencies.[7] Hawaii was the only state in which the electorate was majority-minority in 2020, with whites comprising only 29% of the electorate.[6]

Primary elections

Canceled Republican primary

On December 11, 2019, the Hawaii Republican Party became one of several state GOP parties to officially cancel their respective primaries and caucuses.[8] Donald Trump's re-election campaign and GOP officials have cited the fact that Republicans canceled several state primaries when George H. W. Bush and George W. Bush sought a second term in 1992 and 2004, respectively; and Democrats scrapped some of their primaries when Bill Clinton and Barack Obama were seeking reelection in 1996 and 2012, respectively.[9][10] Because this was the first of the cancelled Republican state races to directly bind its delegates to the national convention (as opposed to a walking subcaucus-type system), Trump automatically was awarded his first 19 pledged delegates of the nomination campaign.[8][11]

Democratic primary

The Hawaii Democratic primary was originally scheduled for April 4, 2020. On March 20, due to concerns over the COVID-19 pandemic, the Hawaii Democratic Party canceled in-person voting in favor of mail-in voting.[12] The deadline was then extended to May 22.[13]

The primary was conducted by ranked-choice voting. Voters were instructed to mark their top three choices on paper ballots. Any voter with a first choice other than Biden or Sanders had their ballot count in the final round if ranking one of those candidates as a second or third choice.

2020 Hawaii Democratic presidential primary[14]
Candidate First
result
% Final
result
% Delegates
Joe Biden 19,593 56.0% 21,215 63.23% 16
Bernie Sanders (suspended) 10,777 30.8% 12,337 36.77% 8
Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn) 1,689 4.8%
Tulsi Gabbard (withdrawn) 1,377 3.9%
Michael Bloomberg (withdrawn) 460 1.3%
Andrew Yang (withdrawn) 340 1.0
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn) 311 0.9
Uncommitted 291 0.8
Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn) 93 0.3
Tom Steyer (withdrawn) 34 0.1
Deval Patrick (withdrawn) 11 0.0
Total 34,976 100% 33,552 100% 24

The ballots were counted separately in each of Hawaii's two Congressional districts.[15]

Vote count by round for District HI-1[15]
Candidate Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Round 4 Round 5 Round 6 Round 7 Round 8 Round 9 Round 10
Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes %
Joe Biden 8,585 58.90% 8,586 58.90% 8,588 58.90% 8,601 59.00% 8,612 59.40% 8,686 60.00% 8,729 60.40% 8,885 61.80% 8,991 63.50% 9,315 66.40%
Bernie Sanders suspended 4,054 27.80% 4,055 27.80% 4,057 27.80% 4,061 27.90% 4,066 28.00% 4,086 28.20% 4,141 28.70% 4,174 29.00% 4,322 30.50% 4,716 33.60%
Elizabeth Warren suspended 738 5.06% 738 5.06% 740 5.08% 746 5.12% 747 5.15% 769 5.31% 813 5.63% 832 5.79% 853 6.02% Eliminated
Tulsi Gabbard suspended 446 3.06% 446 3.06% 446 3.06% 447 3.07% 449 3.10% 456 3.15% 475 3.29% 485 3.37% Eliminated
Michael Bloomberg suspended 262 1.80% 262 1.80% 266 1.82% 267 1.83% 270 1.86% 278 1.92% 286 1.98% Eliminated
Andrew Yang suspended 186 1.28% 187 1.28% 191 1.31% 192 1.32% 193 1.33% 206 1.42% Eliminated
Pete Buttigieg suspended 153 1.05% 153 1.05% 153 1.05% 159 1.09% 159 1.10% Eliminated
Uncommitted 106 0.73% 106 0.73% 106 0.73% 106 0.73% Eliminated
Amy Klobuchar suspended 34 0.23% 34 0.23% 34 0.23% Eliminated
Tom Steyer suspended 15 0.10% 15 0.10% Eliminated
Deval Patrick suspended 4 0.03% Eliminated
Total 14,583 100% 14,582 100% 14,581 100% 14,579 100% 14,496 100% 14,481 100% 14,444 100% 14,376 100% 14,166 100% 14,031 100%
Vote count by round for District HI-2[15]
Candidate Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Round 4 Round 5 Round 6 Round 7 Round 8 Round 9 Round 10
Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes %
Joe Biden 11,008 54.00% 11,010 54.00% 11,015 54.00% 11,028 54.10% 11,058 54.30% 11,137 54.80% 11,150 55.30% 11,247 55.90% 11,459 58.20% 11,900 61.00%
Bernie Sanders suspended 6,723 33.00% 6,724 33.00% 6,729 33.00% 6,730 33.00% 6,773 33.20% 6,798 33.40% 6,808 33.70% 6,837 34.00% 7,138 36.20% 7,621 39.00%
Elizabeth Warren suspended 951 4.66% 952 4.67% 955 4.68% 974 4.78% 997 4.89% 1,024 5.03% 1,028 5.09% 1,040 5.17% 1,098 5.58% Eliminated
Tulsi Gabbard suspended 931 4.57% 931 4.57% 931 4.57% 937 4.60% 962 4.72% 971 4.77% 973 4.82% 990 4.92% Eliminated
Michael Bloomberg suspended 198 0.97% 198 0.97% 201 0.99% 203 1.00% 205 1.01% 217 1.07% 219 1.09% Eliminated
Uncommitted 185 0.91% 185 0.91% 186 0.91% 186 0.91% 191 0.94% 192 0.94% Eliminated
Pete Buttigieg suspended 158 0.77% 159 0.78% 159 0.78% 170 0.83% 186 0.91% Eliminated
Andrew Yang suspended 154 0.76% 155 0.76% 155 0.76% 159 0.78% Eliminated
Amy Klobuchar suspended 59 0.29% 60 0.29% 61 0.30% Eliminated
Tom Steyer suspended 19 0.09% 19 0.09% Eliminated
Deval Patrick suspended 7 0.03% Eliminated
Total 20,393 100% 20,393 100% 20,392 100% 20,387 100% 20,372 100% 20,339 100% 20,178 100% 20,114 100% 19,695 100% 19,521 100%

Green primary

Green Party of Hawaii presidential primary, May 23, 2020[16]
Candidate Percentage National delegates
Dario Hunter 41.6% 2
Howie Hawkins 33.3% 2
Kent Mesplay 8.3% 0
Dennis Lambert 8.3% 0
Chad Wilson 8.3% 0
Susan Buchser-Lochocki 0% 0
Sedinam Moyowasifza-Curry 0% 0
David Rolde 0% 0
No Preference 0% 0
Total 100.00% 4

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[17] Safe D November 3, 2020
Inside Elections[18] Safe D November 3, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[19] Safe D November 3, 2020
Politico[20] Safe D November 3, 2020
RCP[21] Safe D November 3, 2020
Niskanen[22] Safe D November 3, 2020
CNN[23] Safe D November 3, 2020
The Economist[24] Safe D November 3, 2020
CBS News[25] Likely D November 3, 2020
270towin[26] Safe D November 3, 2020
ABC News[27] Safe D November 3, 2020
NPR[28] Likely D November 3, 2020
NBC News[29] Safe D November 3, 2020
538[30] Safe D November 3, 2020

Polling

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Donald
Trump

Republican
Other/
Undecided
[a]
Margin
FiveThirtyEight until October 31, 2020 November 2, 2020 64.1% 30.6% 5.3% Biden +33.5

Polls

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump

Republican
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Jo
Jorgensen

Libertarian
Howie
Hawkins

Green
Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 688 (LV) ± 5% 31%[c] 67% - -
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 1–28, 2020 1,263 (LV) 34% 63% - -
Mason-Dixon Oct 12–14, 2020 625 (LV) ± 4% 29% 58% - - 5% 8%
MRG Research/Civil Beat/HNN Oct 2–7, 2020 988 (RV) ± 3.1% 28% 61% - - 4%[d] 7%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Sep 1–30, 2020 474 (LV) 33% 66% - - 1%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Aug 1–31, 2020 362 (LV) 37% 61% - - 2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jul 1–31, 2020 356 (LV) 37% 62% - - 2%
MRG Research Jul 27–30, 2020 975 (RV) ± 3.1% 29% 56% - - 6%[e] 10%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jun 8–30, 2020 207 (LV) 30% 67% - - 3%

Results

2020 United States presidential election in Hawaii[1]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Joe Biden
Kamala Harris
366,130 63.73 +0.85
Republican Donald Trump
Mike Pence
196,864 34.27 +3.91
Libertarian Jo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen
5,539 0.96 -2.80
Green Howie Hawkins
Angela Walker
3,822 0.67 -2.33
American Shopping Brock Pierce
Karla Ballard
1,183 0.21 N/A
Constitution Don Blankenship
William Mohr
931 0.16 -0.89
Total votes 574,469 100.0

By county

County Joseph R. Biden

Democratic

Donald J. Trump

Republican

Jo Jorgensen

Libertarian

Howie Hawkins

Green

Brock Pierce

American Shopping

Don Blankenship

Constitution

Margin Total votes cast
# % # % # % # % # % # % # %
Kalawao 23 95.83% 1 4.17% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 23 91.66% 24
Hawaii 58,731 66.88% 26,897 30.63% 1,027 1.17% 805 0.92% 220 0.25% 134 0.15% 31,834 36.25% 87,814
Honolulu 238,869 62.51% 136,259 35.66% 3,437 0.90% 2,178 0.57% 741 0.19% 630 0.16% 102,610 26.85% 382,114
Kauai 21,225 63.36% 11,582 34.58% 303 0.90% 254 0.76% 77 0.23% 56 0.17% 9,643 28.78% 33,497
Maui 47,305 66.59% 22,126 31.14% 772 1.09% 585 0.82% 145 0.20% 111 0.16% 25,179 35.45% 71,044
Totals 366,130 63.73% 196,864 34.27% 5,539 0.96% 3,822 0.67% 1,183 0.21% 931 0.16% 169,266 29.46% 574,469

By congressional district

[31]

District Trump Biden Representative
1st 36% 64% Ed Case
2nd 34% 64% Tulsi Gabbard
Kai Kahele

Electors

The Democratic Party of Hawaii selected the following individuals to cast Electoral College votes for Biden:[32]

  • John Bickel, a government and history teacher from Oahu
  • Mike Golojuch, Sr. - an Air Force veteran and longtime Democratic activist from Oahu
  • Hermina “Mina” Morita - a retired state lawmaker from Kaua'i
  • Kainoa Kaumeheiwa-Rego - a community advocate for the Office of Hawaiian Affairs from Oahu

See also

Notes

  1. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. ^ Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  4. ^ "Neither" with 4%
  5. ^ "Neither" with 6%

References

  1. ^ a b "GENERAL ELECTION 2020 - State of Hawaii – Statewide November 3, 2020 **FINAL SUMMARY REPORT**" (PDF). Hawaii Office of Elections. November 19, 2020. Retrieved November 22, 2020.
  2. ^ Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  3. ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  4. ^ https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html
  5. ^ Wasserman, David; Sophie; rews; Saenger, Leo; Cohen, Lev; Flinn, Ally; Tatarsky, Griff. "2020 Popular Vote Tracker". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved December 4, 2020.
  6. ^ a b "Hawaii Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 9, 2020.
  7. ^ Mehta, Dhrumil (September 18, 2020). "How Asian Americans Are Thinking About The 2020 Election". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved November 9, 2020.
  8. ^ a b "Hawaii GOP cancels presidential preference poll, commits delegates to Trump". The Hill. December 12, 2019. Retrieved December 12, 2019.
  9. ^ Karni, Annie (September 6, 2019). "GOP plans to drop presidential primaries in 4 states to impede Trump challengers". Boston Globe. MSN. Retrieved September 7, 2019.
  10. ^ Steakin, Will; Karson, Kendall (September 6, 2019). "GOP considers canceling at least 3 GOP primaries and caucuses, Trump challengers outraged". ABC News. Retrieved September 7, 2019.
  11. ^ "Hawaii Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved February 20, 2020.
  12. ^ "Hawaii Democrats scrap in-person voting plan for primary". Associated Press. March 20, 2020.
  13. ^ "Party-run Presidential Primary UPDATE". Democratic Party of Hawaii. March 27, 2020. Retrieved March 27, 2020.
  14. ^ "Hawaii Primary Election Results 2020". New York Times. Retrieved May 24, 2020.
  15. ^ a b c "Ranked-Choice Results" (PDF). Democratic Party of Hawai'i. Retrieved June 6, 2020.
  16. ^ "Green Party of Hawai'i Presidential Preference Poll Results". OPAVOTE. Green Party of Hawaii. Retrieved May 26, 2020.
  17. ^ "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  18. ^ "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  19. ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  20. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
  21. ^ "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
  22. ^ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.
  23. ^ David Chalian; Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
  24. ^ "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
  25. ^ "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
  26. ^ "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
  27. ^ "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
  28. ^ "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
  29. ^ "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
  30. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
  31. ^ https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2012/11/19/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-the-2012-2008-elections
  32. ^ [1]

Further reading

External links

This page was last edited on 15 January 2021, at 20:33
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