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2020 United States presidential election in Connecticut

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

2020 United States presidential election in Connecticut

← 2016 November 3, 2020 2024 →
Turnout79.70% Increase
 
Joe Biden presidential portrait (cropped).jpg
Donald Trump official portrait (cropped).jpg
Nominee Joe Biden Donald Trump
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Delaware Florida
Running mate Kamala Harris Mike Pence
Electoral vote 7 0
Popular vote 1,080,680 715,291
Percentage 59.24% 39.21%

Connecticut Presidential Election Results 2020.svg
County results

2020 Presidential Election in Connecticut.svg
Municipal results

President before election

Donald Trump
Republican

Elected President

Joe Biden
Democratic

The 2020 United States presidential election in Connecticut was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[2] Connecticut voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Connecticut has seven electoral votes in the Electoral College.[3]

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the state's primary elections were postponed until August 11, 2020, marking the first time that the modern presidential primary season has extended into August. By that time, incumbent President Donald Trump of the Republican Party and former Vice President Joe Biden of the Democratic Party had already clinched enough delegates to become the presumptive nominees of their respective parties. Furthermore, both the Democratic and Republican National Conventions were scheduled one and two weeks afterward, respectively, essentially making the Connecticut primary races pro forma.

Biden won the state by 20 points, a notable improvement from Hillary Clinton's 13-point win in the state in 2016. He fared especially well in Fairfield County, an ancestrally Republican area, as well as the Hartford suburbs. Biden also came within five points of flipping traditionally Republican Litchfield County, which had previously voted Democratic in 2008; and 4.2 points of flipping traditionally Democratic Windham County, which had previously voted Democratic in 2012. Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Biden's strength in Connecticut came from college-educated voters with 64% (a large voting bloc in the state), White women with 60%, and Latinos with 71%. Additionally, Biden won over white voters (which composed 81% of the electorate) with 55%.[4] Biden won a combined 70% in large cities and 62% in suburban areas. Biden is also the first presidential nominee ever to exceed 1 million votes in the state. Additionally, his total is currently the highest that any candidate in any race in Connecticut has received, surpassing the previous record of 1,008,714 that Richard Blumenthal received in his 2016 Senate race. At the same time, Biden became the first Democrat to win the White House without carrying Windham County since Woodrow Wilson in 1916.[5]

Connecticut was one of sixteen states where Trump received less percentage of the vote than he did in the 2016 election.[a]

Primary elections

The primary elections were originally scheduled for April 28, 2020. On March 19, they were moved to June 2 due to concerns over the COVID-19 pandemic.[6] Then on April 17, they were further pushed back to August 11.[7]

Republican primary

The state had 28 delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention, all going to Trump.[8]

2020 Connecticut Republican presidential primary
Candidate Votes % Delegates
Donald Trump 71,667 78.4% 28
Uncommitted 12,994 14.2%
Rocky De La Fuente (withdrawn) 6,791 7.4%
Total 91,452 100% 28

Democratic primary

2020 Connecticut Democratic presidential primary[9]
Candidate Votes % Delegates[10]
Joe Biden 224,500 84.90% 60
Bernie Sanders (suspended) 30,512 11.54%
Uncommitted 5,975 2.26%
Tulsi Gabbard (withdrawn) 3,429 1.30%
Total 264,416 100% 60


Libertarian caucus

2020 Connecticut Libertarian presidential caucus

April 25–28, 2020 2024 →
← OH
NY →
 
Jacob Hornberger by Gage Skidmore (cropped) (3).jpg
Jim Gray (cropped).jpg
Jo Jorgensen by Gage Skidmore 3 (50448627641) (crop 2).jpg
Candidate Jacob Hornberger Jim Gray Jo Jorgensen
Home state Virginia California South Carolina
First vote 47
(31.7%)
23
(13.8%)
18
(10.8%)
Final vote 85
(66.9%)
42
(33.1%)
Eliminated

 
Kokesh2013 (cropped).jpg
Vermin Supreme August 2019 (cropped).jpg
Candidate Adam Kokesh Vermin Supreme
Home state Indiana Massachusetts
First vote 14
(8.4%)
14
(8.4%)
Final vote Eliminated Eliminated

Voting took place from April 25–28, 2020.[11]

Connecticut Libertarian presidential caucus[11]
Candidate Round 1 Round 19
Votes % Transfer Votes %
Jacob Hornberger 47 31.7% + 48 85 66.9%
James P. Gray 23 13.8% + 19 42 33.1%
Jo Jorgensen 18 10.8% - 34 Eliminated in round 18
Adam Kokesh 14 8.4% - 22 Eliminated in round 17
Vermin Supreme 14 8.4% - 16 Eliminated in round 16
Brian Ellison 6 3.6% - 11 Eliminated in round 15
Souraya Faas 4 2.4% - 8 Eliminated in round 14
N.O.T.A 8 4.2% - 8 Eliminated in round 13
Dan Behrman 5 3.0% - 5 Eliminated in round 12
Sorinne Ardeleanu 4 2.4% - 5 Eliminated in round 11
Sam Robb 4 2.4% - 5 Eliminated in round 10
Arvin Vohra 4 2.4% - 4 Eliminated in round 9
John Monds 4 2.4% - 4 Eliminated in round 8
Ken Armstrong 1 0.6% - 3 Eliminated in round 7
Phil Gray 2 1.2% - 2 Eliminated in round 6
Steve Richey 1 0.6% - 1 Eliminated in round 5
Erik Gerhardt 1 0.6% - 1 Eliminated in round 4
Jedidiah Hill 1 0.6% - 1 Eliminated in round 3
Louis Vanacore 1 0.6% - 1 Eliminated in round 2
Kenneth Blevins, James Ogle, Rhett Smith 0 0.0% - 0 Eliminated in round 1
Round 1 Total 167 100.0% Round 9 Total 167 (40 exhausted) 100.0%

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[12] Safe D September 10, 2020
Inside Elections[13] Safe D September 4, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[14] Safe D July 14, 2020
Politico[15] Safe D September 8, 2020
RCP[16] Likely D November 3, 2020
Niskanen[17] Safe D July 26, 2020
CNN[18] Safe D August 3, 2020
The Economist[19] Safe D September 2, 2020
CBS News[20] Likely D August 16, 2020
270towin[21] Safe D August 2, 2020
ABC News[22] Safe D July 31, 2020
NPR[23] Likely D August 3, 2020
NBC News[24] Likely D August 6, 2020
538[25] Safe D September 9, 2020

Polling

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Donald
Trump

Republican
Other/
Undecided
[b]
Margin
FiveThirtyEight until November 2, 2020 November 3, 2020 58.6% 32.4% 9.0% Biden +26.3

Polls

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump

Republican
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Jo
Jorgensen

Libertarian
Howie
Hawkins

Green
Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 2,031 (LV) ± 3.5% 38%[d] 60% - -
Swayable Oct 23 – Nov 1, 2020 367 (LV) ± 6.2% 33% 64% 2% 1%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 1–28, 2020 3,782 (LV) 35% 63% - -
Sacred Heart University Oct 8–21, 2020 1,000 (A) ± 3.02% 26% 51% - - 2% 20%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Sep 1–30, 2020 1,415 (LV) 37% 61% - - 2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Aug 1–31, 2020 1,009 (LV) 35% 64% - - 1%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jul 1–31, 2020 1,360 (LV) 39% 59% - - 2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jun 8–30, 2020 574 (LV) 32% 65% - - 3%
SurveyUSA May 19–24, 2020 808 (RV) ± 4.5% 33% 52% - - 7%[e] 8%
Quinnipiac University Apr 30 – May 4, 2020 945 (RV) ± 3.2% 33% 56% - - 3%[f] 7%
Sacred Heart University/Hartford Courant Mar 24 – Apr 3, 2020 1,000 (A) ± 3.0% 34% 47% - -
Sacred Heart University/Hartford Courant Feb 24 – Mar 12, 2020 1,000 (A) ± 3.0% 36% 52% - -
Sacred Heart University/Hartford Courant Dec 16, 2019 – Jan 2, 2020 1,000 (A) ± 3.0% 32% 52% - - 16%
Sacred Heart University/Hartford Courant Sep 17 – Oct 2, 2019 1,000 (A) ± 3.2% 33% 52% - - 15%
Former candidates

with Donald Trump and Pete Buttigieg

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Pete
Buttigieg (D)
Undecided
Sacred Heart University/Hartford Courant/Institute for Public Policy Dec 16, 2019 – Jan 2, 2020 1000 (A) ± 3.% 33% 47% 20%
Sacred Heart University/Hartford Courant Sep 17 – Oct 2, 2019 1,000 (A) ± 3.2% 34% 46% 20%

with Donald Trump and Kamala Harris

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Kamala
Harris (D)
Undecided
Sacred Heart University/Hartford Courant Sep 17 – Oct 2, 2019 1,000 (A) ± 3.2% 34% 47% 19%

with Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Bernie
Sanders (D)
Undecided
Sacred Heart University/Hartford Courant Mar 24 – Apr 3, 2020 1,000 (A) ± 3.0% 37% 48%
Sacred Heart University/Hartford Courant Feb 24 – Mar 12, 2020 1,000 (A) ± 3.0% 38% 50%
Sacred Heart University/Hartford Courant Dec 16, 2019 – Jan 2, 2020 1,000 (A) ± 3.0% 35% 52% 13%
Sacred Heart University/Hartford Courant Sep 17 – Oct 2, 2019 1,000 (A) ± 3.2% 35% 51% 14%

with Donald Trump and Elizabeth Warren

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Elizabeth
Warren (D)
Undecided
Sacred Heart University/Hartford Courant/Institute for Public Policy Dec 16, 2019 – Jan 2, 2020 1000 (A) ± 3.0% 36% 49% 16%
Sacred Heart University/Hartford Courant Sep 17 – Oct 2, 2019 1,000 (A) ± 3.2% 35% 49% 16%

Results

2020 United States presidential election in Connecticut[26]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Joe Biden
Kamala Harris
1,080,680 59.24% +4.67%
Republican Donald Trump
Mike Pence
715,291 39.21% -1.72%
Libertarian Jo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen
20,227 1.11% -1.85%
Green Howie Hawkins
Angela Walker
7,538 0.41% -0.98%
Write-in 544 0.03%
Total votes 1,824,280 100.00%

By county

County Joe Biden

Democratic

Donald Trump

Republican

Jo Jorgensen

Libertarian

Howie Hawkins

Green

Other Margin Total votes cast
# % # % # % # % # % # %
Fairfield 297,505 62.90% 169,039 35.74% 4,593 0.97% 1,681 0.36% 172 0.04% 128,466 27.16% 472,990
Hartford 283,368 63.06% 159,024 35.39% 5,039 1.12% 1,773 0.39% 132 0.03% 124,344 27.67% 449,336
Litchfield 50,164 46.65% 55,601 51.70% 1,280 1.19% 485 0.45% 14 0.01% -5,437 -5.06% 107,544
Middlesex 56,848 57.31% 40,665 40.99% 1,210 1.22% 444 0.45% 31 0.03% 16,183 16.31% 99,198
New Haven 242,629 58.05% 169,892 40.65% 3,661 0.88% 1,693 0.41% 105 0.03% 72,737 17.40% 417,980
New London 79,459 56.92% 57,110 40.91% 2,256 1.62% 757 0.54% 22 0.02% 22,349 16.01% 139,604
Tolland 44,006 54.63% 34,819 43.23% 1,274 1.58% 398 0.49% 49 0.06% 9,187 11.41% 80,546
Windham 26,701 46.78% 29,141 51.06% 914 1.60% 307 0.54% 14 0.02% -2,440 -4.27% 57,077
Totals 1,080,680 59.24% 715,291 39.21% 20,227 1.11% 7,538 0.41% 539 0.03% 365,389 20.03% 1,824,275

By congressional district

District Trump Biden Representative
1st 35% 63% John Larson
2nd 44% 55%  Joe Courtney
3rd 39% 60% Rosa DeLauro
4th 35% 64% Jim Himes
5th 44% 55% Jahana Hayes

See also

Notes

  1. ^ The other fifteen states were Alabama, Delaware, Georgia, Kentucky, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Nebraska, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia.
  2. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  3. ^ a b c d e Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  4. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  5. ^ "Someone else" with 7%
  6. ^ "Someone else" with 2%; would not vote with 1%

References

  1. ^ "Connecticut Election Results 2020". The New York Times. Retrieved November 17, 2020.
  2. ^ Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  3. ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  4. ^ "Connecticut Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 9, 2020.
  5. ^ "The Political Graveyard: Windham County, Conn". politicalgraveyard.com. Retrieved November 28, 2020.
  6. ^ "Connecticut governor says primaries moved to June". CNN. March 19, 2020.
  7. ^ Dixon, Ken (April 17, 2020). "Connecticut's presidential primary will be delayed further by coronavirus: August 11". Connecticut Post.
  8. ^ "Connecticut Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved August 11, 2020.
  9. ^ "August 2020 Democratic Presidential Preference Primary". Connecticut Secretary of State. Retrieved August 28, 2020.
  10. ^ "2020 Presidential Primaries, Caucuses, and Conventions: Connecticut Democrat". The Green Papers. Retrieved August 19, 2020.
  11. ^ a b "Hornberger wins Connecticut". Op A Vote. Libertarian Party of Connecticut. April 28, 2020. Retrieved April 28, 2020. CS1 maint: discouraged parameter (link)
  12. ^ "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  13. ^ "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  14. ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  15. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
  16. ^ "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
  17. ^ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions Archived April 23, 2020, at the Wayback Machine, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.
  18. ^ David Chalian; Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
  19. ^ "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
  20. ^ "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
  21. ^ "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
  22. ^ "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
  23. ^ "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
  24. ^ "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
  25. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
  26. ^ "Candidate List November 2020 Election". Connecticut Secretary of State. Retrieved September 17, 2020.

Further reading

External links

This page was last edited on 18 April 2021, at 15:39
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