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2020 United States presidential election in Colorado

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

2020 United States presidential election in Colorado

← 2016 November 3, 2020 2024 →
Turnout%
Votes counted
98%
as of Nov. 24, 2020, 5:08 p.m. EST[1]
 
Joe Biden 2013.jpg
Donald Trump official portrait (cropped).jpg
Nominee Joe Biden Donald Trump
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Delaware Florida
Running mate Kamala Harris Mike Pence
Projected electoral vote 9 0
Popular vote 1,804,251 1,364,467
Percentage 55.40% 41.90%

Colorado Presidential Election Results 2020.svg
Preliminary County Results

President before election

Donald Trump
Republican

Elected President

Joe Biden
Democratic

The 2020 United States presidential election in Colorado was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[2] Colorado voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Colorado has nine electoral votes in the Electoral College.[3]

The Democratic National Committee (DNC) proposed Denver as a finalist to host the 2020 Democratic National Convention, but the city declined, citing conflicts.[4] The DNC ultimately decided to hold the convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

Prior to the election, all 14 news organizations considered Colorado a state Biden would win, or a safe blue state. On the day of the election, Biden won Colorado with over 55% of the vote, and by a victory margin of 13.5%, the strongest Democratic performance since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964, and the first time since 1984 that the margin was in the double digits. In this election, Colorado weighed in as 4.3% more Democratic than the nation as a whole. The results solidified Colorado as a Democratic stronghold, rather than the Democratic-leaning battleground state it had been for the past three election cycles.[5] Per exit polls by the Associated Press, changing demographics made Colorado more favorable to Democrats, with Latinos backing Biden with 68%, including Latinos of Mexican heritage with 75%. Biden also carried whites with 53%. 69% of voters favored increasing federal government spending on green and renewable energy, and they favored Biden by 76%–23%.[6]

Biden flipped Pueblo County, which had been reliably Democratic before narrowly backing Trump in 2016, back to the Democrats. Biden also flipped Chaffee County, which backed Barack Obama in 2012; Biden became the first Democrat to win Garfield County since 1992. Additionally, Biden became the first Democrat to win more than 40% in the populous Republican stronghold of El Paso County since 1964.[citation needed] Nevertheless, Biden became the first Democrat since Woodrow Wilson in 1912 to win the White House without carrying Las Animas County.[7]

Trump however did flip Alamosa County, which has not voted Republican since 2004.

Primary elections

The primary elections were held on Super Tuesday, March 3, 2020.

Republican primary

The Republican primary was due to be canceled until Robert Ardini, a retired advertising executive, decided to submit his name for the ballot. Several others subsequently joined him.

2020 Colorado Republican primary[8][9]
Candidate Votes % Estimated
delegates[10]
Donald Trump 628,876 92.26 37
Bill Weld 25,698 3.77
Joe Walsh (withdrawn) 13,072 1.92
Matthew John Matern 7,239 1.06
Robert Ardini 3,388 0.50
Zoltan Istvan 3,350 0.49
Total 681,623 100% 37

Democratic primary

The results were certified on March 30.[11] The race has been called for Bernie Sanders[12] who won a plurality of votes and delegates.

2020 Colorado Democratic presidential primary[13][a]
Candidate Votes % Delegates[15][16]
Bernie Sanders 355,293 37.00 29
Joe Biden 236,565 24.64 21
Michael Bloomberg 177,727 18.51 9
Elizabeth Warren 168,695 17.57 8
Tulsi Gabbard 10,037 1.05
Andrew Yang (withdrawn) 3,988 0.42
Tom Steyer (withdrawn†) 3,323 0.35
Cory Booker (withdrawn) 1,276 0.13
Roque De La Fuente III 1,136 0.12
Marianne Williamson (withdrawn†) 1,086 0.11
Rita Krichevsky 445 0.05
Robby Wells 330 0.03
Deval Patrick (withdrawn) 227 0.02
Total 960,128 100% 67
†Candidate withdrew after early voting started.

Libertarian nominee

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[17] Likely D September 10, 2020
Inside Elections[18] Solid D September 4, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[19] Likely D July 14, 2020
Politico[20] Likely D September 8, 2020
RCP[21] Lean D August 3, 2020
Niskanen[22] Safe D July 26, 2020
CNN[23] Lean D August 3, 2020
The Economist[24] Likely D September 2, 2020
CBS News[25] Likely D August 16, 2020
270towin[26] Likely D August 2, 2020
ABC News[27] Safe D July 31, 2020
NPR[28] Likely D August 3, 2020
NBC News[29] Likely D August 6, 2020
538[30] Safe D November 1, 2020

Polling

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Donald
Trump

Republican
Other/
Undecided
[b]
Margin
270 to Win October 5–20, 2020 October 26, 2020 52.2% 40.2% 7.6% Biden +12.0
FiveThirtyEight until November 1, 2020 November 1, 2020 53.3% 41.4% 5.3% Biden +11.9
Average 52.8% 40.8% 6.4% Biden +12.0

Polls

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump

Republican
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Jo
Jorgensen

Libertarian
Howie
Hawkins

Green
Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 2,991 (LV) ± 2.5% 44%[d] 55% - -
Keating Research/Onsight Public Affairs/Colorado Sun Oct 29 – Nov 1, 2020 502 (LV)[e] ± 4.4% 41% 53% - -
Data for Progress Oct 27 – Nov 1, 2020 709 (LV) ± 3.7% 42% 54% 3% 1% 0%[f]
Swayable Oct 23 – Nov 1, 2020 455 (LV) ± 6% 41% 55% 3% 1%
Morning Consult Oct 22–31, 2020 727 (LV) ± 4% 41% 54% - -
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 1–28, 2020 5,925 (LV) 40% 59% - -
Morning Consult Oct 11–20, 2020 788 (LV) ± 3.5% 39% 55% - -
RBI Strategies Oct 12–16, 2020 502 (LV) ± 4.4% 38% 55% 3% 1% 1%[g] 1%
RMG Research/PoliticalIQ Oct 9–15, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 43% 51% - - 1%[h] 3%
Civiqs/Daily Kos Oct 11–14, 2020 1,013 (LV) ± 3.6% 42% 53% - - 3%[i] 1%
Keating Research/OnSight Public Affairs/Melanson Oct 8–13, 2020 519 (LV) ± 4.3% 39% 54% - - 3%[j] 4%
Morning Consult Oct 2–11, 2020 837 (LV) ± 3.4% 40% 54% - -
YouGov/University of Colorado Oct 5–9, 2020 800 (LV) ± 4.64% 38% 47% - - 3% 11%
SurveyUSA/9News/Colorado Politics Oct 1–6, 2020 1,021 (LV) ± 3.9% 40% 50% - - 5%[k] 4%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Sep 1–30, 2020 2,717 (LV) 41% 57% - - 2%
Morning Consult Aug 29 – Sep 7, 2020 657 (LV) ± (2%–4%) 43%[l] 49% - -
Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates/AARP Aug 30 – Sep 5, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 40% 50% - - 2%[m] 8%
Global Strategy Group/Progress Colorado[A] Aug 28 – Sep 1, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 39% 50% 4% 1% 1%[n] 4%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Aug 1–31, 2020 2,385 (LV) 41% 57% - - 2%
Morning Consult[1] Aug 21–30, 2020 638 (LV) ± 4% 41%[o] 51% - -
Morning Consult Aug 16–25, 2020 ~600 (LV) ± 4.0% 42% 51% - -
Morning Consult[2] Aug 7–16, 2020 601 (LV) ± 4% 41%[p] 51% - -
Morning Consult Aug 6–15, 2020 ~600 (LV) ± 4.0% 41% 51% - -
Morning Consult Jul 7 – Aug 5, 2020 ~600 (LV) ± 4.0% 40% 52% - -
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jul 1–31, 2020 2,337 (LV) 40% 58% - - 2%
Morning Consult Jul 17–26, 2020 616 (LV) ± 4.0% 39%[q] 52% - -
Morning Consult Jul 13–22, 2020 ~600 (LV) ± 4.0% 41% 51% - -
Public Policy Polling/AFSCME[B] Jul 23–24, 2020 891 (V) 41% 54% - - 5%
Public Policy Polling/End Citizens United Jun 29–30, 2020 840 (V) ± 3.4% 39% 56% - - 5%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jun 8–30, 2020 1,088 (LV) 42% 57% - - 2%
Morning Consult May 17–26, 2020 572 (LV) 42% 50% - -
Global Strategy Group (D) May 7–11, 2020 700 (RV) ± 3.5% 40% 53% - - 7%
Keating Research/OnSight Public Affairs/Melanson/Colorado Politics May 1–3, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 36% 55% - - 3%[r] 6%
Montana State University Bozeman Apr 10–19, 2020 379 (LV) 35% 53% - - 3% 8%
Climate Nexus Feb 11–15, 2020 485 (RV) ± 4.5% 43% 46% - - 11%
Emerson College Aug 16–19, 2019 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 45% 55% - -
Fabrizio Ward/AARP Jul 29–31, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 42% 51% - - 1%[s] 5%
Former candidates
Donald Trump vs. Michael Bloomberg
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Michael
Bloomberg (D)
Undecided
Climate Nexus Feb 11–15, 2020 485 (RV) ± 4.5% 42% 45% 13%
Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Pete
Buttigieg (D)
Undecided
Climate Nexus Feb 11–15, 2020 485 (RV) ± 4.5% 42% 45% 13%
Emerson College Aug 16–19, 2019 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 45% 55%
with Donald Trump and Kamala Harris
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Kamala
Harris (D)
Undecided
Emerson College Aug 16–19, 2019 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 48% 51%
Donald Trump vs. Amy Klobuchar
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Amy
Klobuchar (D)
Undecided
Climate Nexus Feb 11–15, 2020 485 (RV) ± 4.5% 43% 43% 14%
Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Bernie
Sanders (D)
Undecided
Climate Nexus Feb 11–15, 2020 485 (RV) ± 4.5% 43% 48% 9%
Emerson College Aug 16–19, 2019 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 45% 55%
Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Elizabeth
Warren (D)
Undecided
Climate Nexus Feb 11–15, 2020 485 (RV) ± 4.5% 45% 44% 11%
Emerson College Aug 16–19, 2019 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 47% 54%
Hypothetical polling
Donald Trump vs. Generic Democrat
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Generic
Democrat
Other Undecided
Magellan Strategies Jul 15–17, 2019 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 32% 44% 15% 9%
Magellan Strategies Mar 11–13, 2019 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 33% 40% 16% 10%
Global Strategy Group Jan 31 – Feb 4, 2019 818 (RV) ± 3.4% 40% 52% 8%
DFM Research Jan 2–5, 2019 550 (A) ± 4.2% 36% 50% 14%

Results

2020 United States presidential election in Colorado[31]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Donald Trump
Mike Pence
Democratic Joe Biden
Kamala Harris
Libertarian Jo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen
Green Howie Hawkins
Angela Walker
Constitution Don Blankenship
William Mohr
Alliance Rocky De La Fuente
Darcy Richardson
American Solidarity Brian Carroll
Amar Patel
Approval Voting Blake Huber
Frank Atwood
Independent American Kyle Kopitke
Nathan Sorenson
Progressive Dario Hunter
Dawn Neptune Adams
Prohibition Phil Collins
Billy Joe Parker
Socialism and Liberation Gloria La Riva
Sunil Freeman
Socialist Equality Joseph Kishore
Norissa Santa Cruz
Socialist Workers Alyson Kennedy
Malcolm Jarrett
Unity Bill Hammons
Eric Bodenstab
Independent Brock Pierce
Karla Ballard
Independent Joe McHugh
Elizabeth Storm
Independent Jordan "Cancer" Scott
Jennifer Tepool
Independent Kanye West
Michelle Tidball
Independent Mark Charles
Adrian Wallace
Independent Princess Khadijah Jacob-Fambro
Khadijah Jacob Sr.
Write-in
Total votes

Counties that swung from Republican to Democratic

Counties that swung from Democratic to Republican

Notes

  1. ^ Michael Bennet, Pete Buttigieg, John Delaney and Amy Klobuchar officially withdrew. Thus all votes cast for them were not counted.[14]
  2. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  3. ^ a b c d e f g h Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  4. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  5. ^ Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  6. ^ "Other candidate or write-in" with 0%
  7. ^ "Someone else" with 3%
  8. ^ "Some other candidate" with 1%
  9. ^ "Someone else" with 3%
  10. ^ "Other candidate" with 3%
  11. ^ "Some other candidate" with 5%
  12. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  13. ^ Would not vote with 2%
  14. ^ West (B) with 1%
  15. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  16. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous and subsequent Morning Consult polls, but more information available regarding sample size
  17. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  18. ^ "Other candidate" with 3%
  19. ^ Would not vote/would not vote for president with 1%
Partisan clients
  1. ^ Poll sponsored by a pro-Affordable Care Act organisation
  2. ^ AFSCME endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period

See also

References

  1. ^ "Colorado Election Results 2020". The New York Times. Retrieved November 15, 2020.
  2. ^ Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  3. ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  4. ^ "City of Milwaukee 1 of 3 finalists to host 2020 Democratic National Convention". FOX6Now.com. June 20, 2018. Retrieved July 1, 2018.
  5. ^ "'Purple' Colorado could go blue in 2020 election as younger voters flock to state, experts say". FOX TV Digital Team. September 8, 2020. Retrieved November 9, 2020.
  6. ^ "Colorado Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 9, 2020.
  7. ^ "County winners, 1836-2016". Google Docs. Retrieved November 15, 2020.
  8. ^ "2020 Presidential Primary Candidate List". Secretary of State of Colorado. Retrieved January 9, 2020.
  9. ^ "2020 Presidential Primary Results by County". Colorado Secretary of State. Colorado Secretary of State. March 30, 2020. Archived from the original on April 17, 2020. Retrieved April 17, 2020.
  10. ^ "Colorado Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved March 11, 2020.
  11. ^ "2020 State Abstract Certificate and Results" (PDF). Colorado Secretary of State. Colorado Secretary of State. March 30, 2020. Archived (PDF) from the original on April 17, 2020. Retrieved April 17, 2020.
  12. ^ "Colorado Election Results 2020". NBC News. Retrieved March 5, 2020.
  13. ^ "2020 Presidential Primary Results by County". Colorado Secretary of State. Colorado Secretary of State. March 30, 2020. Archived from the original on April 17, 2020. Retrieved April 17, 2020.
  14. ^ "Election Night Reporting". results.enr.clarityelections.com. Colorado Secretary of State. March 30, 2020. Archived from the original on April 17, 2020. Retrieved April 17, 2020.
  15. ^ "State Convention Results – Colorado Caucus 2020". Colorado Democratic Party. Retrieved May 3, 2020.
  16. ^ "Congressional District Assembly/Convention Results – Colorado Caucus 2020". Colorado Democratic Party. Retrieved May 3, 2020.
  17. ^ "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  18. ^ "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  19. ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  20. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
  21. ^ "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
  22. ^ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020
  23. ^ David Chalian; Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
  24. ^ "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
  25. ^ "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
  26. ^ "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
  27. ^ "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
  28. ^ "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
  29. ^ "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
  30. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved September 23, 2020.
  31. ^ "2020 General Election Candidates". Colorado Secretary of State. Retrieved September 17, 2020.

Further reading

External links

This page was last edited on 28 November 2020, at 23:16
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