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2020 United States presidential election in Arkansas

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

2020 United States presidential election in Arkansas

← 2016 November 3, 2020 2024 →
Turnout66.91% Increase
 
Donald Trump official portrait (cropped).jpg
Joe Biden 2013.jpg
Nominee Donald Trump Joe Biden
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Florida Delaware
Running mate Mike Pence Kamala Harris
Electoral vote 6 0
Popular vote 760,647 423,932
Percentage 62.40% 34.78%

Arkansas Presidential Election Results 2020.svg
County results

President before election

Donald Trump
Republican

Elected President

Joe Biden
Democratic

The 2020 United States presidential election in Arkansas was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[1] Arkansas voters chose six electors[2] to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting incumbent Republican President Donald Trump and his running mate, incumbent Vice President Mike Pence, against Democratic challenger and former Vice President Joe Biden and his running mate, United States Senator Kamala Harris of California. The Libertarian, Green, Constitution, American Solidarity, Life and Liberty, and Socialism and Liberation nominees were also on the ballot, as were five Independent candidates.

On the day of the election, Trump scored a convincing victory in Arkansas, defeating Biden by 28 points; he improved his statewide performance in 2016 by two points. This extended the Republican Party's streak of improving margins in Arkansas to seven consecutive elections, by far the longest current streak in the nation for either party. However, Biden did improve in Washington County, home to the college town of Fayetteville, only losing it by four points. Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Trump's strength in Arkansas came from 86% with white, born again/evangelical Christians. 52% of voters opposed changing the Arkansas state flag to remove the star that symbolizes the Confederacy, and these voters backed Trump by 88%–10%.[3] Biden also became the first Democrat to win the presidency without Woodruff County.[citation needed]

Primary elections

The primary elections were held on Super Tuesday, March 3, 2020.

Republican primary

Donald Trump and Bill Weld were among the declared Republicans candidates. Tom Cotton, current senator from Arkansas, has declined to run as of January 2019.[4][5][6]

The following candidates are on the ballot.[7]

2020 Arkansas Republican Party presidential primary[8]
Candidate Popular vote Delegates
Count Percentage
America Symbol.svg
Donald Trump
238,980 97.13% 40
Bill Weld 5,216 2.12% 0
Rocky De La Fuente 1,848 0.75% 0
Total 246,044 100% 40

Democratic primary

Popular vote share by county   Biden—30–40%   Biden—40–50%   Biden—50–60%   Biden—60–70%   Sanders—30–40%
Popular vote share by county
  Biden—30–40%
  Biden—40–50%
  Biden—50–60%
  Biden—60–70%
  Sanders—30–40%
2020 Arkansas Democratic presidential primary[9]
Candidate Votes % Delegates[10]
Joe Biden 93,012 40.59 17
Bernie Sanders 51,413 22.44 9
Michael Bloomberg 38,312 16.72 5
Elizabeth Warren 22,971 10.03
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn†) 7,649 3.34
Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn†) 7,009 3.06
Tom Steyer (withdrawn†) 2,053 0.90
Tulsi Gabbard 1,593 0.70
Kamala Harris (withdrawn) 715 0.31
Andrew Yang (withdrawn) 715 0.31
Michael Bennet (withdrawn) 574 0.25
Cory Booker (withdrawn) 572 0.25
Marianne Williamson (withdrawn) 501 0.22
Steve Bullock (withdrawn) 485 0.21
John Delaney (withdrawn) 443 0.19
Joe Sestak (withdrawn) 408 0.18
Mosie Boyd 393 0.17
Julian Castro (withdrawn) 304 0.13
Total 229,122 100% 31
†Candidate withdrew after early voting started.

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[11] Safe R November 3, 2020
Inside Elections[12] Safe R November 3, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[13] Safe R November 3, 2020
Politico[14] Safe R November 3, 2020
RCP[15] Likely R November 3, 2020
Niskanen[16] Safe R November 3, 2020
CNN[17] Safe R November 3, 2020
The Economist[18] Safe R November 3, 2020
CBS News[19] Likely R November 3, 2020
270towin[20] Safe R November 3, 2020
ABC News[21] Safe R November 3, 2020
NPR[22] Likely R November 3, 2020
NBC News[23] Safe R November 3, 2020
538[24] Safe R November 3, 2020

Polling

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Donald
Trump

Republican
Other/
Undecided
[a]
Margin
270 to Win September 20 – October 21, 2020 October 28, 2020 35.0% 60.3% 4.7% Trump +25.3
FiveThirtyEight until October 27, 2020 October 28, 2020 35.5% 59.7% 4.8% Trump +24.2
Average 35.3% 60.0% 4.7% Trump +24.7

Polls

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump

Republican
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Jo
Jorgensen

Libertarian
Howie
Hawkins

Green
Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 1,309 (LV) ± 4% 61%[c] 38% - -
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 1–28, 2020 2,239 (LV) 60% 38% - -
University of Arkansas Oct 9–21, 2020 591 (LV) ± 3.9% 65% 32% - - 3%
Hendrix College/Talk Business & Politics Oct 11–13, 2020 647 (LV) ± 4.9% 58% 34% 2% 1% 2%[d] 4%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Sep 1–30, 2020 771 (LV) 62% 38% - - 1%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Aug 1–31, 2020 689 (LV) 67% 32% - - 1%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jul 1–31, 2020 747 (LV) 66% 32% - - 2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jun 8–30, 2020 354 (LV) 59% 38% - - 2%
Hendrix College/Talk Business & Politics Jun 9–10, 2020 869 (LV) ± 3.3% 47% 45% - - 5%[e] 3%

Results

Statewide results

2020 United States presidential election in Arkansas[25]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Donald Trump
Mike Pence
760,647 62.40% +1.83%
Democratic Joe Biden
Kamala Harris
423,932 34.78% +1.13%
Libertarian Jo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen
13,133 1.08% -1.56%
Independent Kanye West
Michelle Tidball
4,099 0.34% N/A
Green Howie Hawkins
Angela Walker
2,980 0.24% -0.60%
Independent Phil Collins
Billy Joe Parker
2,812 0.23% N/A
Independent Brock Pierce
Karla Ballard
2,141 0.18% N/A
Constitution Don Blankenship
William Mohr
2,108 0.17% -0.24%
American Solidarity Brian Carroll
Amar Patel
1,713 0.14% N/A
Independent C. L. Gammon
Phil Collins[f]
1,475 0.12% N/A
Life and Liberty John Richard Myers
Tiara Lusk
1,372 0.11% N/A
Socialism and Liberation Gloria La Riva
Sunil Freeman
1,336 0.11% N/A
Independent Rocky De La Fuente
Darcy Richardson
1,321 0.11% N/A
Total votes 1,219,069 100% +2.83%

Results by county

Vote breakdown by county[25]
Trump/Pence
Republican
Biden/Harris
Democratic
Others[g] Margin Total
County Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes
Arkansas 4,304 68.40% 1,818 28.89% 170 2.70% 2,486 39.51% 6,292
Ashley 5,548 70.00% 2,125 26.81% 253 3.19% 3,423 43.19% 7,926
Baxter 15,836 75.38% 4,635 22.06% 536 2.55% 11,201 53.32% 21,007
Benton 73,965 61.68% 42,249 35.23% 3,698 3.08% 31,716 26.45% 119,912
Boone 13,652 79.77% 3,064 17.90% 398 2.33% 10,588 61.87% 17,114
Bradley 2,335 63.90% 1,214 33.22% 105 2.87% 1,121 30.68% 3,654
Calhoun 1,636 74.98% 479 21.95% 67 3.07% 1,157 53.02% 2,182
Carroll 7,424 62.93% 4,023 34.10% 350 2.97% 3,401 28.83% 11,797
Chicot 1,752 42.70% 2,260 55.08% 91 2.22% –508 –12.38% 4,103
Clark 4,616 54.99% 3,438 40.95% 341 4.06% 1,178 14.03% 8,395
Clay 4,086 78.83% 962 18.56% 135 2.60% 3,124 60.27% 5,183
Cleburne 10,328 81.45% 1,988 15.68% 364 2.87% 8,340 65.77% 12,680
Cleveland 2,867 79.64% 651 18.08% 82 2.28% 2,216 61.56% 3,600
Columbia 5,500 63.83% 2,814 32.66% 302 3.51% 2,686 31.17% 8,616
Conway 5,694 65.56% 2,615 30.11% 376 4.33% 3,079 35.45% 8,685
Craighead 25,558 66.37% 11,921 30.95% 1,032 2.68% 13,637 35.41% 38,511
Crawford 18,607 77.24% 4,959 20.58% 525 2.18% 13,648 56.65% 24,091
Crittenden 7,333 44.80% 8,514 52.02% 520 3.18% –1,181 –7.22% 16,367
Cross 4,946 71.25% 1,772 25.53% 224 3.23% 3,174 45.72% 6,942
Dallas 1,573 59.38% 963 36.35% 113 4.27% 610 23.03% 2,649
Desha 1,921 46.13% 2,016 48.41% 227 5.45% –95 –2.28% 4,164
Drew 4,349 62.96% 2,426 35.12% 133 1.93% 1,923 27.84% 6,908
Faulkner 34,421 63.24% 18,347 33.71% 1,660 3.05% 16,074 29.53% 54,428
Franklin 5,677 79.63% 1,300 18.24% 152 2.13% 4,377 61.40% 7,129
Fulton 3,961 77.38% 1,035 20.22% 123 2.40% 2,926 57.16% 5,119
Garland 29,069 65.77% 14,045 31.78% 1,085 2.45% 15,024 33.99% 44,199
Grant 6,794 82.85% 1,268 15.46% 138 1.68% 5,526 67.39% 8,200
Greene 12,670 78.70% 3,058 18.99% 372 2.31% 9,612 59.70% 16,100
Hempstead 4,470 65.27% 2,138 31.22% 240 3.50% 2,332 34.05% 6,848
Hot Spring 9,202 73.28% 3,082 24.54% 273 2.17% 6,120 48.74% 12,557
Howard 3,367 69.65% 1,340 27.72% 127 2.63% 2,027 41.93% 4,834
Independence 11,250 77.52% 2,806 19.34% 456 3.14% 8,444 58.19% 14,512
Izard 4,631 79.71% 1,021 17.57% 158 2.72% 3,610 62.13% 5,810
Jackson 3,593 70.58% 1,365 26.81% 133 2.61% 2,228 43.76% 5,091
Jefferson 9,521 37.84% 14,981 59.55% 656 2.61% –5,460 –21.70% 25,158
Johnson 6,938 73.05% 2,283 24.04% 277 2.92% 4,655 49.01% 9,498
Lafayette 1,757 65.58% 839 31.32% 83 3.10% 918 34.27% 2,679
Lawrence 4,569 78.01% 1,080 18.44% 208 3.55% 3,489 59.57% 5,857
Lee 1,286 45.15% 1,423 49.96% 139 4.88% –137 –4.81% 2,848
Lincoln 2,729 70.75% 1,032 26.76% 96 2.49% 1,697 44.00% 3,857
Little River 3,715 71.76% 1,226 23.68% 236 4.56% 2,489 48.08% 5,177
Logan 6,441 78.31% 1,544 18.77% 240 2.92% 4,897 59.54% 8,225
Lonoke 22,884 74.63% 6,686 21.81% 1,092 3.56% 16,198 52.83% 30,662
Madison 5,658 76.97% 1,563 21.26% 130 1.77% 4,095 55.71% 7,351
Marion 5,783 77.08% 1,531 20.41% 189 2.52% 4,252 56.67% 7,503
Miller 11,920 72.12% 4,245 25.68% 364 2.20% 7,675 46.43% 16,529
Mississippi 7,296 59.12% 4,558 36.93% 488 3.95% 2,738 22.18% 12,342
Monroe 1,545 54.87% 1,147 40.73% 124 4.40% 398 14.13% 2,816
Montgomery 3,046 78.65% 731 18.87% 96 2.48% 2,315 59.77% 3,873
Nevada 2,133 63.52% 1,076 32.04% 149 4.44% 1,057 31.48% 3,358
Newton 3,192 79.84% 709 17.73% 97 2.43% 2,483 62.11% 3,998
Ouachita 5,294 54.98% 3,995 41.49% 340 3.53% 1,299 13.49% 9,629
Perry 3,479 75.19% 1,012 21.87% 136 2.94% 2,467 53.32% 4,627
Phillips 2,417 38.72% 3,623 58.04% 202 3.24% –1,206 –19.32% 6,242
Pike 3,519 82.88% 644 15.17% 83 1.95% 2,875 67.71% 4,246
Poinsett 5,918 78.69% 1,424 18.93% 179 2.38% 4,494 59.75% 7,521
Polk 7,035 82.86% 1,246 14.68% 209 2.46% 5,789 68.19% 8,490
Pope 18,081 74.01% 5,772 23.62% 579 2.37% 12,309 50.38% 24,432
Prairie 2,786 79.71% 654 18.71% 55 1.57% 2,132 61.00% 3,495
Pulaski 63,687 37.47% 101,947 59.98% 4,322 2.54% –38,260 –22.51% 169,956
Randolph 5,355 78.61% 1,215 17.84% 242 3.55% 4,140 60.78% 6,812
St. Francis 3,242 45.61% 3,604 50.70% 262 3.69% –362 –5.09% 7,108
Saline 39,556 69.45% 16,060 28.20% 1,343 2.36% 23,496 41.25% 56,959
Scott 2,962 83.41% 483 13.60% 106 2.99% 2,479 69.81% 3,551
Searcy 3,365 83.73% 588 14.63% 66 1.64% 2,777 69.10% 4,019
Sebastian 31,198 66.18% 14,487 30.73% 1,455 3.09% 16,711 35.45% 47,140
Sevier 3,884 74.66% 1,116 21.45% 202 3.88% 2,768 53.21% 5,202
Sharp 5,938 78.48% 1,398 18.48% 230 3.04% 4,540 60.01% 7,566
Stone 4,616 77.74% 1,180 19.87% 142 2.39% 3,436 57.86% 5,938
Union 10,478 63.09% 5,584 33.62% 545 3.28% 4,894 29.47% 16,607
Van Buren 6,034 77.29% 1,593 20.40% 180 2.31% 4,441 56.88% 7,807
Washington 47,504 50.39% 43,824 46.49% 2,938 3.12% 3,680 3.90% 94,266
White 24,182 78.30% 5,978 19.36% 725 2.35% 18,204 58.94% 30,885
Woodruff 1,543 62.32% 856 34.57% 77 3.11% 687 27.75% 2,476
Yell 5,226 77.53% 1,284 19.05% 231 3.43% 3,942 58.48% 6,741
Total 760,647 62.40% 423,932 34.78% 34,490 2.83% 336,715 27.62% 1,219,069

By congressional district

[27]

District Trump Biden Representative
1st 69% 28% Rick Crawford
2nd 53% 44% French Hill
3rd 62% 35% Steve Womack
4th 68% 30% Bruce Westerman

Notes

  1. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. ^ Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  4. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  5. ^ "Another candidate" with 5%
  6. ^ C. L. Gammon was the original Presidential nominee of the Prohibition Party, with Phil Collins as his running mate. After Gammon withdrew, Collins was given the party's nomination for President, but appears on the ballot a second time as Gammon and Collins' original candidacy was never removed.[26]
  7. ^ Includes Jo Jorgensen, Kanye West, Howie Hawkins, Phil Collins, Brock Pierce, Don Blankenship, Brian Carroll, C. L. Gammon, John Richard Myers, Gloria La Riva, and Rocky De La Fuente.

See also

References

  1. ^ Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Archived from the original on January 3, 2019. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  2. ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Archived from the original on January 9, 2019. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  3. ^ "Arkansas Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 9, 2020.
  4. ^ Wells, Dylan; Talwar, Saisha (August 9, 2017). "Trump could face GOP challengers in the 2020 election". ABC News. Archived from the original on August 10, 2017. Retrieved August 9, 2017.
  5. ^ Millar, Lindsey (August 6, 2017). "Cotton figures in New York Times roundup on 2020 presidential race". Arkansas Times. Archived from the original on August 10, 2017. Retrieved August 10, 2017.
  6. ^ Beaumont, Thomas (May 19, 2017). "GOP's Cotton in Iowa: "I'm ready for that new beginning."". The Seattle Times. Archived from the original on October 20, 2017. Retrieved October 19, 2017.
  7. ^ "Sample ballots in Arkansas". January 28, 2020.
  8. ^ "Election Night Reporting". results.enr.clarityelections.com. Arkansas Secretary of State. Retrieved March 25, 2020.
  9. ^ "Election Night Reporting". results.enr.clarityelections.com. Arkansas Secretary of State. Retrieved March 23, 2020.
  10. ^ "Arkansas Election Results 2020". PBS NewsHour. Retrieved March 3, 2020.
  11. ^ "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Archived from the original on March 23, 2020. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  12. ^ "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Archived from the original on May 27, 2020. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  13. ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Archived from the original on April 4, 2020. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  14. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019. Archived from the original on June 14, 2020. Retrieved April 8, 2020.
  15. ^ "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019. Archived from the original on May 3, 2020. Retrieved April 27, 2020.
  16. ^ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions Archived April 23, 2020, at the Wayback Machine, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.
  17. ^ David Chalian; Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Archived from the original on June 16, 2020. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
  18. ^ "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Archived from the original on July 5, 2020. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
  19. ^ "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Archived from the original on July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
  20. ^ "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win. Archived from the original on July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 23, 2020.
  21. ^ "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Archived from the original on July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
  22. ^ "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Archived from the original on August 4, 2020. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
  23. ^ "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. Archived from the original on August 7, 2020. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
  24. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Archived from the original on September 11, 2020. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
  25. ^ a b "2020 General Election and Nonpartisan Judicial Runoff". Arkansas Secretary of State. Retrieved November 28, 2020.
  26. ^ "Candidate Ballot Position Drawing" (PDF). Pulaski County Election Commission. Archived (PDF) from the original on October 9, 2020. Retrieved October 5, 2020.
  27. ^ Nir, David (November 19, 2020). "Daily Kos Elections' presidential results by congressional district for 2020, 2016, and 2012". Daily Kos. Retrieved December 10, 2020.

Further reading

External links

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