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2020 United States presidential election in Arizona

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

2020 United States presidential election in Arizona

← 2016 November 3, 2020 2024 →
Turnout79.90% (of registered voters) Increase
 
Joe Biden 2013.jpg
Donald Trump official portrait (cropped).jpg
Nominee Joe Biden Donald Trump
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Delaware Florida
Running mate Kamala Harris Mike Pence
Electoral vote 11 0
Popular vote 1,672,143 1,661,686
Percentage 49.36% 49.06%

Arizona Presidential Election Results 2020.svg
County results

President before election

Donald Trump
Republican

Elected President

Joe Biden
Democratic

The 2020 United States presidential election in Arizona was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election, in which all 50 states and the District of Columbia participated.[1] Arizona voters chose 11 electors[2] to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting incumbent Republican President Donald Trump and his running mate, incumbent Vice President Mike Pence, against Democratic challenger and former Vice President Joe Biden and his running mate, United States Senator Kamala Harris of California. The Libertarian, Green, Socialism and Liberation, and Constitution nominees were also on the ballot, as was an Independent candidate.

Trump carried Arizona in 2016 by 3.50%, and it was considered a vital battleground in this election. The state's bitterly competitive nature was attributed to diversification of Maricopa County, a traditionally Republican stronghold that holds 61.62% of the state's population.[3][4] Maricopa County was seen as vital to either candidate's chances in the state – only one presidential candidate has ever won the state without carrying it.[5] The county is home to Phoenix (the state capital and largest city), Mesa, Chandler, Scottsdale, Glendale, Tempe, and several other major cities. Biden's lead was credited to educated, white suburbanites, formerly Republican voting blocs that have shifted continuously towards the left in recent years.[6] High turnout among Hispanic/Latino and Native American voters was also seen as vital. Polls of the state throughout the campaign generally showed a Biden lead, albeit by a slender margin. Prior to election day, 11 of the 16 news organizations making election predictions considered that Arizona was leaning towards Biden; the other five considered it a toss-up.

Biden ultimately won the state by a mere 10,457 votes over Trump, a 0.31% margin, marking the first time since Bill Clinton won it in 1996, and only the second time since Harry S. Truman's 1948 victory, that a Democratic presidential nominee won Arizona. Arizona was the second-closest state in 2020, the only closer state being Georgia, marking the first time since 1948 that the Democratic nominee won both Sun Belt states (though Clinton won each state in separate elections).

Per exit polls by the Associated Press,[7] Biden won 59% of Latino voters, including 65% of Latinos of Mexican heritage, who made up the vast majority of the Hispanic electorate. Hispanic and Latino voters comprised 18% of the electorate, up from 15% in 2016[8] and 16% in 2008.[9] He won 58% of independents and was even able to notch 9% of Republicans and 10% of conservatives. That support allowed Biden to narrowly flip Maricopa County, making him the first Democrat since Truman in 1948 to do so. He held his deficit among suburban voters to 51-48 despite Republicans having won them by double digits in 2016, 2012, and 2008. Biden won college-educated voters 53-46, a 17 point swing from 2016 when Trump won them by 10 percentage points. Additionally, Biden performed relatively well for a Democratic candidate among the state's Latter-day Saint voters, carrying 18% of their vote.[10] Biden had touted his endorsement from Cindy McCain and leaned into his friendship with the late Senator John McCain in advertising.[11] Trump disparaged him on several instances at rallies while campaigning and during his presidency, even after McCain's death, and refused to attend his funeral,[12] which some credited as the finishing blow to his performance among Arizona's moderate voter base.[13] Pushing Biden over the top was a strong performance among Hispanic and Latino voters and a massive hike in turnout among the state's expansive Native American reservations, most significantly the Navajo Nation.

Arizona weighed in as 4.15 percentage points more Republican than the nation in 2020.

Primary elections

Canceled Republican primary

On September 9, 2019, the Arizona Republican Party became one of several state Republican parties to officially cancel their respective primaries and caucuses.[14] Donald Trump's re-election campaign and GOP officials have cited the fact that Republicans canceled several state primaries when George H. W. Bush and George W. Bush sought a second term in 1992 and 2004, respectively; and Democrats scrapped some of their primaries when Bill Clinton and Barack Obama were seeking reelection in 1996 and 2012, respectively.[15][16][17]

Of the 57 total delegates, 3 were allocated to each of the state's 9 congressional districts, 10 to at-large delegates, and another 3 to pledged party leaders and elected officials (PLEO delegates). 17 bonus delegates were also allocated.

The state party still formally conducted the higher meetings in their walking subcaucus-type delegate selection system. The legislative district and county conventions were held from February 8 to April 11 to select delegates to the Arizona State Republican Convention. At the Arizona State Republican Convention, which took place on May 9, the state party formally binded all 57 of its national pledged delegates to Trump. A May 15 email from the Arizona GOP stated that "every one of our ... delegates ... elected pledged to support Donald Trump and Mike Pence as the Republican Party's 2020 nominees for President and Vice President!"[15]

The 54 pledged delegates Arizona sent to the national convention were joined by 3 pledged PLEO delegates, consisting of the National Committeeman, National Committeewoman, and chairman of the Arizona Republican Party.

Democratic primary

The Arizona Democratic primary took place on March 17, 2020, on the same date as the Democratic primaries in Florida and Illinois. Former Vice President Joe Biden won the primary with 43.70% of the vote and 38 delegates, running ahead of Senator Bernie Sanders from Vermont, who received 32.68% of the vote and 29 delegates. No other candidates received any delegates and the only other candidates to receive more than 1% of the vote were Senator Elizabeth Warren from Massachusetts, with 5.79%, and former South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg, with 4.05%. Both Warren and Buttigieg withdrew prior to the contest. The other candidates on the ballot comprised a collective 1.23% of the vote.[18]

Biden won 13 of 15 counties in the state of Arizona, with Sanders winning Coconino (home to Flagstaff) and Yuma (home to its eponymous city) counties.

The official vote totals reported by the Arizona Secretary of State added up to 86.72%, as the remaining 13.28% of the vote was composed of candidates whose individual vote totals were not reported.[18]

Popular vote share by county  Map legend   Biden—40–50%   Biden—50–60%   Sanders—30–40%   Sanders—40–50%
Popular vote share by county
Map legend
  •   Biden—40–50%
  •   Biden—50–60%
  •   Sanders—30–40%
  •   Sanders—40–50%
2020 Arizona Democratic presidential primary[19]
Candidate Votes % Delegates[20]
Joe Biden 268,029 43.70 38
Bernie Sanders 200,456 32.68 29
Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn†) 35,537 5.79 0
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn†) 24,868 4.05 0
Tulsi Gabbard 3,014 0.49 0
Andrew Yang (withdrawn) 1,921 0.31 0
Julian Castro (withdrawn) 754 0.12 0
Marianne Williamson (withdrawn) 668 0.11 0
Roque De La Fuente III 628 0.10 0
Deval Patrick (withdrawn) 242 0.04 0
Henry Hewes 208 0.03 0
Michael A. Ellinger 184 0.03 0
Total 536,509[a] 86.72%[b] 67

†Candidate withdrew after early voting started.

February 19, 2020: (from left) Speaker of the Arizona House Russell Bowers, Governor Doug Ducey, Congresswoman Debbie Lesko, and President Trump at a rally at Arizona Veterans Memorial Coliseum in Phoenix.
February 19, 2020: (from left) Speaker of the Arizona House Russell Bowers, Governor Doug Ducey, Congresswoman Debbie Lesko, and President Trump at a rally at Arizona Veterans Memorial Coliseum in Phoenix.

General election

Campaign

Arizona was a heavily contested state throughout the election. Once a reliably Republican state, it has trended more Democratic in recent years, with Trump winning it by just 3.5% in 2016. Compared to past Republicans, Trump's performance was historically weak: Mitt Romney won it with a 9.03% margin in 2012 over Barack Obama,[22] John McCain by 8.48% in 2008 also against Obama,[23] and George W. Bush by 10.45% in 2004 against John Kerry.[24] Arizona was one of just ten states to swing more Democratic in 2016, and its 5.5 percentage point swing was the fourth largest in the country.[25] The swing mirrored a nationwide pattern where suburban voters, formerly the principle Republican voting base, swung deep into the Democratic column. Arizona's leftward swing was also credited to a rapidly growing Hispanic population.

The Democratic advantage in the state was pronounced further in the 2018 elections. Democrat Kyrsten Sinema won the open Senate seat against Trump loyalist[26] and Representative Martha McSally by a margin of 55,900 votes (2.4%),[27] flipping the state blue for the first time since 1988. Sinema carried Maricopa County, which holds the majority of Arizona citizens, by 60,256 votes.[28] McSally would later be appointed to Arizona's other Senate seat on January 3, 2019 after the death of John McCain. Democrats also won a 5–4 majority in Arizona's House of Representatives delegation. In the legislative elections, Democrats maintained their deficit in both houses of the Arizona Legislature but picked up four seats in the Arizona House of Representatives and won the general ballot in the Arizona Senate.

Both candidates spent massive amounts of money on advertising, though Biden outspent Trump 2–1.[29]

Trump visited Arizona significantly more than his opponent, holding 4 rallies in just one week, compared to Biden, who only visited the state once.[30][31] Biden favored small, masked gathering to limit the spread of COVID-19, which ravaged the state's large Navajo communities,[32] whereas Trump favored large rallies with thousands of people in attendance, oftentimes without masks and contrary to the advice of health officials.[33]

October 25, 2020: Campaign rally for Joe Biden at Corona Ranch and Rodeo Grounds in Phoenix, featuring Cher.
October 25, 2020: Campaign rally for Joe Biden at Corona Ranch and Rodeo Grounds in Phoenix, featuring Cher.

At his rallies, Trump campaigned with the Republican Governor of Arizona, Doug Ducey, as well as Republican Senator Martha McSally, in a bid to help her win reelection against Democrat Mark Kelly in the 2020 United States Senate special election. Ducey suffered from low approval ratings due to his handling of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic – his approval fell from 50% to 29% before the pandemic[34] to a 35–42 deficit in an October 2, 2020 poll.[35] Ducey suffered opposition from both sides of the aisle: he was booed at a Trump rally in Tucson, with Trump supporters shouting "open up and open our state,"[36] while facing opposition from the left and public health experts for his failure to promote the usage of masks and other mitigation measures, downplaying the severity of the virus, and prioritization of reopening the economy.[37][38]

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[39] Lean D (flip) November 3, 2020
Inside Elections[40] Tilt D (flip) November 3, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[41] Lean D (flip) November 3, 2020
Politico[42] Tossup November 3, 2020
RCP[43] Tossup November 3, 2020
Niskanen[44] Likely D (flip) November 3, 2020
CNN[45] Tossup November 3, 2020
The Economist[46] Lean D (flip) November 3, 2020
CBS News[47][c] Tossup November 3, 2020
270towin[48] Tossup November 3, 2020
ABC News[49] Lean D (flip) November 3, 2020
NPR[50][d] Tossup November 3, 2020
NBC News[51] Tossup November 3, 2020
538[52] Lean D (flip) November 3, 2020

Polling

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Donald
Trump

Republican
Other/
Undecided
[e]
Margin
270 to Win October 22 – November 2, 2020 November 3, 2020 48.0% 45.8% 6.2% Biden +2.2
Real Clear Politics October 25 – November 1, 2020 November 3, 2020 47.9% 47.0% 5.1% Biden +0.9
FiveThirtyEight until November 2, 2020 November 3, 2020 48.7% 46.1% 5.2% Biden +2.6
Average 48.2% 46.3% 5.5% Biden +1.9

2020 polls

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[f]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump

Republican
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Jo
Jorgensen

Libertarian
Howie
Hawkins

Green
Other Undecided
Ipsos/Reuters Oct 27 – Nov 2 610 (LV) ± 4.5% 47%[g] 50% 1% 0% 2%[h]
47%[i] 49% - - 2%[j] 1%
48%[k] 50% - - 2%[l]
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 20 – Nov 2 4,278 (LV) ± 2.5% 46%[m] 52% - -
Change Research/CNBC Oct 29 – Nov 1 409 (LV) ± 4.85% 47% 50% 2% - 1%
Marist College/NBC Oct 29 – Nov 1 717 (LV) ± 4.5% 48% 48% - - 3% 1%
Swayable Oct 27 – Nov 1 360 (LV) ± 7.1% 46% 51% 4% -
Data for Progress Oct 27 – Nov 1 1,195 (LV) ± 2.8% 47% 50% 2% 1% 0%[n]
AtlasIntel Oct 30–31 641 (LV) ± 4% 50.4% 48.1% - - 1.5%[o]
Emerson College Oct 29–31 732 (LV) ± 3.6% 46% 48% - - 6%[p]
Morning Consult Oct 22–31 1,059 (LV) ± 3% 46% 48% - -
Data Orbital Oct 28–30 550 (LV) ± 4.2% 45.3% 45.9% 3% - 6%[q] 5%
Siena College/NYT Upshot Oct 26–30 1,253 (LV) ± 3% 43% 49% 3% - 1%[r] 5%[s]
Grand Canyon Battleground Poll Oct 25–30 910 (LV) ± 3.1% 48% 45% 3% - 4%
CNN/SSRS Oct 23–30 892 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 50% 3% - 1%[t] 1%
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports Oct 27–29 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 49% 45% - - 3%[u]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Oct 26–29 889 (LV) 46% 50% 2% 0% 1% 2%
Gravis Marketing Oct 26–28 704 (LV) ± 3.7% 44% 48% - - 8%
Trafalgar Group Oct 25–28 1,002 (LV) ± 3% 49% 46.5% 2.1% - 1.7%[v] 0.7%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 1–28 5,687 (LV) 46% 52% - -
Ipsos/Reuters Oct 21–27 714 (LV) ± 4.2% 47%[g] 47% 2% 0% 3%[w]
46%[x] 48% - - 3%[y] 2%
Swayable Oct 23–26 304 (LV) ± 7.2% 44% 52% 3% -
Justice Collaborative Project[A] Oct 22–25 874 (LV) ± 3.1% 43% 49% - - 5%
OH Predictive Insights Oct 22–25 716 (LV) ± 3.7% 46% 49% 3% - 1%[z] 1%
Univision/University of Houston/Latino
Decisions/North Star Opinion Research
Oct 17–25 725 (RV) ± 3.64% 45% 50% - - 2%[aa] 3%
Patinkin Research Strategies/Arizona Research Consortium (D) Oct 21–24 729 (LV) ± 3.6% 45% 52% - - 2% 1%
Y2 Analytics/Salt Lake Tribune Oct 15–24 700 (LV) ± 3.7% 47% 50% - -
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc./Center for American Greatness[B] Oct 19–22 504 (LV) ± 4.4% 46%[ab] 46% 4% - 2%[ac] 1%
Ipsos/Reuters Oct 14–21 658 (LV) ± 4.4% 46%[g] 50% 1% - 2%[ad]
46%[ae] 49% - - 3%[af] 2%
Morning Consult Oct 11–20 1,066 (LV) ± 3% 48% 47% - -
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports Oct 18–19 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 46% 48% - - 3%[ag] 3%
Change Research/CNBC Oct 16–19 232 (LV)[ah] 45% 51% - -
RMG Research/PoliticalIQ Oct 14–19 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 46%[g] 47% - - 3%[ai] 5%
44%[aj] 49% - - 3%[ak] 5%
47%[al] 45% - - 3%[am] 5%
Data Orbital Oct 16–18 550 (LV) ± 4.18% 42% 47% 3% - 5%[an] 2%
YouGov/CBS Oct 13–16 1,074 (LV) ± 4.1% 45% 49% - - 3%[ao] 3%
Ipsos/Reuters Oct 7–14 667 (LV) ± 4.3% 47%[g] 49% 1% 0% 2%[ap]
46%[aq] 50% - - 2%[ar] 3%
Monmouth University Oct 11–13 502 (RV) ± 4.4% 44% 50% 2% - 1%[as] 4%
502 (LV) 44%[at] 51% - - 2%
47%[au] 49% - - 1%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Oct 10–13 750 (LV) 45%[ah] 48% 1% 0%
Morning Consult Oct 2–11 1,144 (LV) ± 2.9% 46% 49% - -
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Oct 9–10 720 (LV) 46%[ah] 48% 1% 0%
Trafalgar Group Oct 6–8 1,087 (LV) ± 2.89% 48% 44% 2% - 2%[av] 5%
OH Predictive Insights Oct 4–8 608 (LV) ± 3.97% 45%[g] 49% 4% - 0%[aw] 3%
47%[ax] 50% - - 0%[ay] 3%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies Oct 4–7 727 (LV) ± 3.63% 43% 49% 1% 1% 1%[az] 6%
Ipsos/Reuters Sep 29 – Oct 7 633 (LV) ± 4.3% 46% 48% - - 2%[ba] 4%
Latino Decisions/Democrats for Education Reform[C] Sep 28 – Oct 6 600 (LV) ± 4% 45% 48% - - 5%
Basswood Research/American Action Forum[D] Oct 3–5 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 48% 48% 2% - 3%
Data Orbital Oct 3–5 550 (LV) ± 4.18% 43% 48% 3% - 3%[bb] 4%
HighGround Inc.[1] Sep 28 – Oct 5 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 45% 46% - - 4%[bc] 5%
Change Research/CNBC Oct 2–4 296 (LV) 45% 51% - -
Siena College/NYT Upshot Oct 1–3 655 (LV) ± 4.2% 41% 49% 3% 1%[bd] 6%[be]
Patinkin Research Strategies/Arizona Research Consortium (D) Oct 1–3 604 (LV) ± 3.8% 46% 50% - - 3% 1%
Targoz Market Research/PollSmart Sep 23 – Oct 2 1,045 (LV) ± 3.03% 46% 45% - - 10%
Suffolk University Sep 26–30 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 46% 50% 1% - 1%[bf] 2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Sep 1–30 7,100 (LV) 47% 51% - - 2%
Strategies 360/Smart and Safe Arizona[E] Sep 24–29 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 45% 49% - - 2%[bg] 4%
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc/Center for American Greatness[B] Sep 25–28 500 (LV) ± 4.3% 47% 47% - -
Data for Progress (D) Sep 23–28 808 (LV) ± 3.4% 45%[g] 49% 1% 0% 4%
46%[bh] 50% - - 4%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Sep 23–26 871 (LV) ± 3.32% 44% 47% 1% 1% 1%[bi] 6%
Data For Progress[F] Sep 15–22 481 (LV) ± 4.4% 46% 45% - - 10%
Change Research/CNBC Sep 18–20 262 (LV) 43% 49% - -
ABC/Washington Post Sep 15–20 579 (LV) ± 4.5% 49% 48% - - 2%[bj] 1%
Hart Research Associates/Human Rights Campaign[G] Sep 17–19 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 42% 53% - -
Data Orbital Sep 14–17 550 (LV) 47% 49% - -
Ipsos/Reuters Sep 11–17 565 (LV) ± 4.7% 46% 47% - - 2%[bk] 5%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Sep 12–16 855 (LV) ± 3.35% 42% 47% 1% 0% 1%[bl] 8%
Monmouth University Sep 11–15 420 (RV) ± 4.8% 44% 48% 4% - 1%[bm] 3%
420 (LV) 46%[bn] 48% - - 3% 3%
47%[bo] 47% - - 3% 3%
Siena College/NYT Upshot Sep 10–15 653 (LV) ± 4.1% 40% 49% 4% - 1%[bp] 6%[bq]
Patinkin Research Strategies/Arizona Research Consortium (D) Sep 10–13 679 (LV) ± 3.8% 46% 49% - - 4% 2%
Kaiser Family Foundation/Cook Political Report Aug 29 – Sep 13 1,298 (RV) ± 3% 40% 45% - - 4%[br] 11%
Gravis Marketing Sep 10–11 684 (LV) ± 3.8% 48% 50% - - 2%
YouGov/CBS Sep 9–11 1,106 (LV) ± 3.9% 44% 47% - - 3%[bs] 6%
OH Predictive Insights Sep 8–10 600 (LV) ± 4% 42% 52% - - 5%
Benenson Strategy Group/GS Strategy Group/AARP Aug 28 – Sep 8 1,600 (LV) ± 2.5% 47% 48% - - 1%[bt] 4%
Morning Consult Aug 29 – Sep 7 901 (LV) ± (2%–4%) 46%[bu] 49% - -
Change Research/CNBC Sep 4–6 470 (LV) 45% 49% - - 6%[bv]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Aug 30 – Sep 4 830 (LV) ± 3.4% 43% 48% 0% 1% 0%[bw] 6%
FOX News Aug 29 – Sep 1 772 (LV) ± 3.5% 40% 49% 3% - 1%[bx] 6%
858 (RV) ± 3.0% 39% 49% 3% - 3%[by] 6%
Basswood Research/American Action Forum[D] Aug 29–31, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 48%[g] 47% 1%[bz] 2% 2%
49%[ca] 48% - - 3%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Aug 1–31 6,456 (LV) 52% 47% - - 2%
Morning Consult Aug 21–30 943 (LV) ± 3.0% 42% 52% - -
Change Research/CNBC Aug 21–23 344 (LV) 47% 49% - -
Redfield and Wilton Strategies Aug 16–18 856 (LV) ± 3.4% 38% 47% 1% 1% 3%[cb] 10%
Morning Consult Aug 7–16 947 (LV) ± (2%–4%) 47% 45% - -
Emerson College Aug 8–10 661 (LV) ± 3.8% 47%[cc] 53% - -
Change Research/CNBC Aug 7–9 428 (LV) 44% 45% - -
Trafalgar Group Aug 5–8 1,013 (LV) ± 2.9% 46% 45% 3% - 1%[cd] 4%
OH Predictive Insights Aug 3–4 603 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 49% - -
OnMessage Inc./Heritage Action[H] Aug 2–4 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 51% 48% - - 2%
Data for Progress Jul 24 – Aug 2 1,215 (LV) 43%[g] 45% 2% 1% 10%
44%[ce] 47% - - 8%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jul 1–31 4,995 (LV) 51% 47% - - 2%
Change Research/CNBC[2] Jul 24–26 365 (LV) 45% 47% - -
Morning Consult Jul 17–26 908 (LV) ± 3.3% 42%[cf] 49% - -
Morning Consult Jul 16–25 – (LV)[cg] 43% 49% - -
CNN/SSRS Jul 18–24 873 (RV) ± 3.8% 45% 49% - - 4%[ch] 2%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Jul 19–23 858 (LV) 38% 46% 2% 1% 3%[ci] 11%
NBC News/Marist College Jul 14–22 826 (RV) ± 4.1% 45% 50% - - 1% 3%
Public Policy Polling/AFSCME[I] Jul 17–18 960 (RV) 45% 49% - - 6%
Spry Strategies/American Principles Project[J] Jul 11–16 700 (LV) ± 3.7% 45% 49% - - 6%
Morning Consult Jul 6–15 – (LV)[cj] 45% 47% - -
Change Research/CNBC Jul 10–12 345 (LV) 45% 51% - -
YouGov/CBS Jul 7–10 1,087 (LV) ± 3.8% 46% 46% - - 4%[ck] 4%
OH Predictive Insights Jul 6–7 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 44% 49% - - 0%[cl] 7%
Morning Consult Jun 26 – Jul 5 – (LV)[cm] 42% 48% - -
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jun 8–30 2,365 (LV) 52% 46% - - 2%
Data Orbital Jun 27–29 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 47% - - 3.3%[cn] 4.2%
Morning Consult Jun 16–25 – (LV)[co] 43% 47% - -
Change Research/CNBC Jun 26–28 311 (LV)[ah] 44% 51% - -
Gravis Marketing/OANN Jun 27 527 (LV) ± 4.3% 49% 45% - - 7%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Jun 14–17 865 (LV) ± 3.3% 39% 43% 2% 1% 2%[cp] 13%
Siena College/NYT Upshot Jun 8–16 650 (RV) ± 4.3% 41% 48% - - 4%[cq] 8%
Civiqs/Daily Kos Jun 13–15 1,368 (RV) ± 2.9% 45% 49% - - 5%[cr] 1%
Morning Consult Jun 6–15 – (LV)[cs] 44% 47% - -
Change Research/CNBC Jun 12–14 201 (LV)[ah] 44% 45% - - 5%[ct]
Morning Consult May 27 – Jun 5 – (LV)[cu] 47% 45% - -
FOX News May 30 – Jun 2 1,002 (RV) ± 3% 42% 46% - - 6%[cv] 5%
Change Research/CNBC May 29–31 329 (LV)[ah] 45% 44% - - 9% 2%
Morning Consult May 17–26 784 (LV) 47%[cw] 45% - -
Morning Consult May 16–25 – (LV)[cx] 46% 46% - -
HighGround Inc. May 18–22 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 45% 47% - - 4%[cy] 4%[cz]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies May 10–14 946 (LV) ± 3.2% 41% 45% - - 3%[da] 10%
OH Predictive Insights May 9–11 600 (LV) ± 4% 43% 50% - - 1%[db] 6%
Morning Consult May 6–15 – (LV)[dc] 47% 45% - -
GBAO Strategies/PLUS Paid Family Leave Apr 13–16 500 (LV) 46% 47% - - 2% 5%
OH Predictive Insights Apr 7–8 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 43% 52% - -
NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist College Mar 10–15 2,523 (RV) ± 2.7% 46% 47% - - 1% 5%
Monmouth University Mar 11–14 847 (RV) ± 3.4% 43% 46% - - 2% 6%
Univision Mar 6–11 1,036 (RV) ± 3.0% 42% 50% - - 8%
OH Predictive Insights Mar 3–4 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 43% 49% - - 8%
Public Policy Polling Mar 2–3 666 (V) 46% 47% - - 6%
Climate Nexus Feb 11–15 539 (RV) ± 4.3% 46% 42% - - 13%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Team McSally/Politico[K] Jan 22–24 1,000 (LV) ± 3.1% 50% 45% - - 6%
Public Policy Polling Jan 2–4 760 (V) 46% 46% - - 8%

2019 polls

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[dd]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump

Republican
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Other Undecided
OH Predictive Insights Dec 3–4 628 (LV) ± 3.91% 46% 44% 0%[de] 10%
Emerson College Oct 25–28 901 (RV) ± 3.2% 50% 50%
Siena College/NYT Upshot Oct 13–23 652 (LV) ± 4.4% 46% 49%
Bendixen & Amandi International Sep 9–12 520 (RV) ± 4.3% 43% 42% 12% 3%
OH Predictive Insights Aug 13–14 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 43% 45% 12%
Fabrizio Ward LLC Jul 29–31 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 50% 45% 4%
OH Predictive Insights May 1–2 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 44% 49% 7%
OH Predictive Insights Feb 12–13 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 46% 7%
Former candidates

Donald Trump vs. Michael Bloomberg

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[f]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Michael
Bloomberg (D)
Other Undecided
Climate Nexus Feb 11–15, 2020 539 (RV) ± 4.3% 44% 45% 11%
OH Predictive Insights Dec 3–4, 2019 628 (LV) ± 3.91% 47% 40% 0%[df] 10%

Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[f]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Pete
Buttigieg (D)
Other Undecided
Climate Nexus Feb 11–15, 2020 539 (RV) ± 4.3% 44% 44% 12%
Public Policy Polling Jan 2–4, 2020 760 (V) 47% 44% 9%
OH Predictive Insights Dec 3–4, 2019 628 (LV) ± 3.91% 45% 43% 0%[dg] 12%
OH Predictive Insights Aug 13–14, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 43% 38% 18%
OH Predictive Insights May 1–2, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 37% 16%

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Kamala
Harris (D)
Other Undecided
Bendixen & Amandi International Sep 9–12, 2019 520 (RV) ± 4.3% 42% 38% 17% 1%
OH Predictive Insights Aug 13–14, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 36% 18%
OH Predictive Insights May 1–2, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 48% 39% 13%
OH Predictive Insights Feb 12–13, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 40% 11%

Donald Trump vs. Amy Klobuchar

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[f]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Amy
Klobuchar (D)
Undecided
Climate Nexus Feb 11–15, 2020 539 (RV) ± 4.3% 46% 39% 15%

Donald Trump vs. Beto O'Rourke

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[f]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Beto
O'Rourke (D)
Undecided
OH Predictive Insights May 1–2, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 40% 14%

Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[f]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Bernie
Sanders (D)
Other Undecided
NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist College Mar 10–15, 2020 2,523 (RV) ± 2.7% 48% 45% 2% 6%
Monmouth University Mar 11–14, 2020 847 (RV) ± 3.4% 44% 43% 4% 6%
Univision Mar 6–11, 2020 1,036 (RV) ± 3.0% 43% 48% 10%
OH Predictive Insights Mar 3–4, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 38% 16%
Public Policy Polling Mar 2–3, 2020 666 (V) 47% 46% 7%
Climate Nexus Feb 11–15, 2020 539 (RV) ± 4.3% 46% 44% 10%
Public Policy Polling Jan 2–4, 2020 760 (V) 47% 46% 7%
OH Predictive Insights Dec 3–4, 2019 628 (LV) ± 3.91% 47% 34% 1%[dh] 18%
Emerson College Oct 25–28, 2019 901 (RV) ± 3.2% 51% 49%
Siena College/NYT Upshot Oct 13–23, 2019 652 (LV) ± 4.4% 49% 45%
Bendixen & Amandi International Sep 9–12, 2019 520 (RV) ± 4.3% 45% 37% 15% 1%
OH Predictive Insights Aug 13–14, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 44% 34% 22%
OH Predictive Insights May 1–2, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 37% 16%
OH Predictive Insights Feb 12–13, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 37% 13%

Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[f]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Elizabeth
Warren (D)
Other Undecided
Climate Nexus Feb 11–15, 2020 539 (RV) ± 4.3% 47% 40% 14%
Public Policy Polling Jan 2–4, 2020 760 (V) 47% 45% 9%
OH Predictive Insights Dec 3–4, 2019 628 (LV) ± 3.91% 47% 41% 1%[di] 12%
Emerson College Oct 25–28, 2019 901 (RV) ± 3.2% 50% 50%
Siena College/NYT Upshot Oct 13–23, 2019 652 (LV) ± 4.4% 46% 47%
Bendixen & Amandi International Sep 9–12, 2019 520 (RV) ± 4.3% 42% 42% 10% 3%
OH Predictive Insights Aug 13–14, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 44% 43% 13%
OH Predictive Insights May 1–2, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 47% 42% 11%
OH Predictive Insights Feb 12–13, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 38% 12%
Hypothetical polling

Donald Trump vs. Generic Democrat

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[f]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Generic
Democrat
Undecided
Univision Mar 6–11, 2020 1,036 (RV) ± 3.0% 41% 51% 7%
Public Policy Polling (D)[L] Jan 24–25, 2019 682 (V) ± 3.8% 46% 50% 4%

Fundraising

According to the Federal Election Commission, in 2019 and 2020, Joe Biden and his interest groups raised $9,284,978.20,[53] Donald Trump and his interest groups raised $15,506,263.10,[54] and Jo Jorgensen raised $29,078.65[55] from Arizona-based contributors.

Candidate ballot access

Independent candidates who wished to run were required to submit a nomination petition and financial disclosure form between 120 and 90 days before the primary election. A valid nomination petition required signatures from 3% of unaffiliated registered voters in Arizona as of March 1, 2020. However, the signatories may be of any political party or unaffiliated as long as they have not already signed a petition for a candidate registered in a political party who intends to run in the same election. Petitions may be physical or electronic; in 2012, Arizona introduced E-Qual, an online nominating petition platform.[56]

In-addition, write-in candidates were required to file a nomination paper (including the candidate's name and signature; residence and post office address; age and date of birth; and the length of time the candidate has lived in Arizona) and financial disclosure form by 5:00 p.m. on the 40th day before the election in which the candidate is running – in this case, September 24 – for their votes to be counted. Sore-loser laws prevent candidates who lost a primary election from running in the general election as a write-in candidate. Write-in candidates also may not run if they didn't receive enough signatures to attain ballot access while filing for the primary election or if the candidate did not receive enough signatures to gain ballot access in the general election.[56] The following candidates were given write-in access:[57]

Electoral slates

Technically the voters of Arizona cast their ballots for electors, or representatives to the Electoral College, rather than directly for President and Vice President. Arizona is allocated 11 electors because it has 9 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 11 electors who pledge to vote for their candidate and their running mate. Whoever wins the most votes in the state is awarded all 11 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledge to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than their candidate is known as a faithless elector. In the state of Arizona, a faithless elector's vote is voided and replaced, but the faithless elector is not penalized.[58][59]

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 15, 2020, to cast their votes for president and vice president. All 11 pledged electors cast their votes for President-elect former Vice President Joe Biden and Senator Kamala Harris from California. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead, the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols. The electoral vote was tabulated and certified by Congress in a joint session on January 6, 2021 per the Electoral Count Act.

These electors were nominated by each party in order to vote in the Electoral College should their candidate win the state:[60]

Joe Biden and Kamala Harris
Democratic Party
Donald Trump and Mike Pence
Republican Party
Jo Jorgensen and Spike Cohen
Libertarian Party
Howie Hawkins and Angela Walker
Green Party
Jade Simmons and Claudeliah J. Roze
Independent
Gloria La Riva and Sunil Freeman
Socialism and Liberation
Daniel Clyde Cummings and Ryan Huber
Constitution Party
President R. Boddie and Eric Stoneham
Independent
Steve Gallardo
Luis Alberto Heredia
Constance Jackson
Sandra D. Kennedy
Stephen Roe Lewis
James McLaughlin
Jonathan Nez
Ned Norris
Regina Romero
Felecia Rotellini
Fred Yamashita
Tyler Bowyer
Nancy Cottle
Jake Hoffman
Anthony T. Kern
James Lamon
Robert Montgomery
Samuel I. Moorhead
Loraine B. Pellegrino
Greg Safsten
Kelli Ward
Michael Ward
Timothy Benjamin
Howard Blitz
Jeffery T. Daniels
Alejandro Flores
Barry Hess
Michael Kielsky
Doug Marks
Robert A. Pepiton II
Brandon Slayton
Scott Steward
Jonathan Winder
Cara Bissell
Celeste M. Castorena
Cesario C. Castorena
Angela Dixon
Antonio Macías
Linda Macías
Betty J. McMurrin
Elisa Olea
Eduardo Quintana
Richard Scott
Angel Torres
Celeslie L. Boyer
Sydney Curtis
Maryann Ehmann
Valerie Grapentine
Jared Korth
JoAnna Langston
Erica Martin
Kia McMurray
Dennis McMurray Jr.
Brittany Sanchez
Veronica Scheier
Jake Beeson
Jaymie Beeson
Becca Hansen
Jacob Hansen
Karen Huber
Ryan Huber
Deric Powell
Kristin Powell
Chad Prior
Diana Prior
Luis Ruiz
La Deysha Black
Donshadre Dukes
Travis Froman
Maria Guevara
Maria Elena Lechaga
Omar Leyva
Ema Maldonado
Rebecca Martinez
Lynette Tucci
Stephanie Valenzuela
Andrea Varela

Results

2020 United States presidential election in Arizona[61][62]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Joe Biden
Kamala Harris
1,672,143 49.36% +4.78%
Republican Donald Trump
Mike Pence
1,661,686 49.06% +0.98%
Libertarian Jo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen
51,465 1.52% -2.56%
Green Howie Hawkins (write-in)
Angela Walker (write-in)
1,557 0.05% -1.27%
Independent Jade Simmons (write-in)
Claudeliah Roze (write-in)
236 0.01% N/A
Socialism and Liberation Gloria La Riva (write-in)
Sunil Freeman (write-in)
190 0.01% N/A
Constitution Daniel Clyde Cummings[dj] (write-in)
Ryan Huber (write-in)
36 0.00% -0.04%
Independent President R. Boddie (write-in)
Eric Stoneham (write-in)
13 0.00% N/A
Total votes 3,387,326 100.00%

By county

County[63] Joe Biden
Democratic
Donald Trump
Republican
Jo Jorgensen
Libertarian
Howie Hawkins
Green
Jade Simmons
Independent
Gloria La Riva
Socialism and Liberation
Daniel Clyde Cummings
Constitution
President R. Boddie
Independent
Margin Total votes cast Registered voters Voter turnout
# % # % # % # % # % # % # % # % # %
Apache 23,293 66.21% 11,442 32.52% 437 1.24% 11 0.03% 0 0.00% 0 0.00% 0 0.00% 0 0.00% 11,851 33.69% 35,183 51,906 67.78%
Cochise 23,732 39.24% 35,557 58.80% 1,153 1.91% 25 0.04% 5 0.01% 0 0.00% 0 0.00% 1 0.00% -11,825 -19.56% 60,473 82,018 73.73%
Coconino 44,698 60.94% 27,052 36.88% 1,522 2.08% 58 0.08% 4 0.01% 8 0.01% 4 0.01% 0 0.00% 17,646 24.06% 73,346 90,716 80.85%
Gila 8,943 32.31% 18,377 66.40% 342 1.24% 16 0.06% 0 0.00% 0 0.00% 0 0.00% 0 0.00% -9,434 -34.09% 27,678 34,068 81.24%
Graham 4,034 26.90% 10,749 71.68% 212 1.41% 1 0.01% 0 0.00% 0 0.00% 0 0.00% 0 0.00% -6,715 -44.78% 14,996 19,851 75.54%
Greenlee 1,182 32.05% 2,433 65.97% 70 1.90% 1 0.03% 2 0.05% 0 0.00% 0 0.00% 0 0.00% -1,251 -33.92% 3,688 4,866 75.79%
La Paz 2,236 29.97% 5,129 68.75% 93 1.25% 2 0.03% 0 0.00% 0 0.00% 0 0.00% 0 0.00% -2,893 -38.78% 7,460 10,909 68.38%
Maricopa 1,040,774 50.29% 995,665 48.11% 31,705 1.53% 1,013 0.05% 151 0.01% 139 0.01% 18 0.00% 10 0.00% 45,109 2.18% 2,069,475 2,595,272 79.74%
Mohave 24,831 23.72% 78,535 75.01% 1,302 1.24% 32 0.03% 2 0.00% 1 0.00% 2 0.00% 0 0.00% -53,704 -51.29% 104,705 135,231 77.43%
Navajo 23,383 45.16% 27,657 53.41% 727 1.40% 11 0.02% 0 0.00% 2 0.00% 2 0.00% 1 0.00% -4,274 -8.25% 51,783 70,650 73.30%
Pima 304,981 58.57% 207,758 39.90% 7,658 1.47% 245 0.05% 47 0.01% 36 0.01% 9 0.00% 1 0.00% 97,223 18.67% 520,735 638,355 81.57%
Pinal 75,106 40.59% 107,077 57.87% 2,791 1.51% 58 0.03% 2 0.00% 2 0.00% 1 0.00% 0 0.00% -31,971 -17.28% 185,037 248,874 74.35%
Santa Cruz 13,138 67.16% 6,194 31.67% 224 1.15% 4 0.02% 1 0.01% 0 0.00% 0 0.00% 0 0.00% 6,944 35.49% 19,561 29,951 65.31%
Yavapai 49,602 34.62% 91,527 63.88% 2,092 1.46% 45 0.03% 13 0.01% 1 0.00% 0 0.00% 0 0.00% -41,925 -29.26% 143,280 165,361 86.65%
Yuma 32,210 46.06% 36,534 52.25% 1,137 1.63% 35 0.05% 9 0.01% 1 0.00% 0 0.00% 0 0.00% -4,324 -6.19% 69,926 103,273 67.71%
Totals 1,672,143 49.36% 1,661,686 49.06% 51,465 1.52% 1,557 0.05% 236 0.01% 190 0.01% 36 0.00% 13 0.00% 10,457 0.30% 3,387,326 4,281,301 79.12%
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Biden won 5 out of 9 congressional districts in Arizona.[64] The presidential results matched the congressional results, where Democrats held an identical 5–4 majority. Biden flipped the 1st district, which includes Casa Grande, Flagstaff, and Navajo Nation and voted for Donald Trump in 2016 by a 47.7%–46.6% margin against Hillary Clinton. Trump easily won the 4th district, which takes in Prescott and most of the rural, northwestern portion of the state. He also carried the 5th, 6th, and 8th districts, all suburban, college-educated districts where Republican dominance has been slipping in recent years. The 6th district, for example, voted for Trump by a mere 4.1%, despite being a Republican stronghold represented by Republicans in the House for all but two years of its history.[28]

Along with the 1st district, Biden carried the 7th and 9th districts, both of which encompass liberal bastions of inner Phoenix and parts of the cities of Glendale and Tempe, respectively. The 2nd and 3rd districts, both border districts dominated by Tucson and large Hispanic populations,[65][66] also voted for Biden.

Results below are percentages from Daily Kos, which does not list exact vote totals per district. Incomplete vote totals are available from the 1st,[67] 2nd,[68] 3rd,[69] and 4th[70] districts at Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections.

District Joe Biden
Democratic
Donald Trump
Republican
Representative
1st 50.1% 48.4% Tom O'Halleran
2nd 54.5% 43.9% Ann Kirkpatrick
3rd 62.8% 35.7% Raúl Grijalva
4th 30.6% 68.0% Paul Gosar
5th 41.9% 56.4% Andy Biggs
6th 47.3% 51.4% David Schweikert
7th 73.7% 24.7% Ruben Gallego
8th 41.4% 57.3% Debbie Lesko
9th 60.8% 37.3% Greg Stanton

Controversies

Early call

Fox News called Arizona for Biden at 11:20 p.m. EST on November 3, election day, with 73% of projected vote counted.[71] The Associated Press did so at 2:51 a.m. EST on November 4.[72][73] Fox News received push-back from the Trump campaign and no other network called Arizona on election night.[74][75][76][77] Fox News decision desk director Arnon Mishkin defended the Arizona call at 12:30 a.m., saying that Fox News was "four standard deviations from being wrong"[74] and that Trump was "not going to be able to take over and win enough votes to eliminate that seven-point lead that [Biden] has."[78] Biden and other Democratic candidates began election night with a wide lead in the state, and at the time Fox News called Arizona for Biden, he led by 210,259 votes (53.9% to 44.9%).[79] The reporting in Arizona was the reverse of a 'red mirage' and 'blue shift' effect seen nationwide, where the counting of election day votes before early and absentee votes gave Republicans across the country an early lead. Votes cast on election day typically leaned heavily Republican while those cast early and absentee ballots leaned heavily Democratic, partially due to the skepticism of mail in voting mostly from Trump and fellow Republicans.[80] However, Arizona and several other Sun Belt states had the opposite effect. Early votes and absentee votes cast before the election were pre-counted and released shortly after 10:00 p.m. EST, when polls closed. Election day votes, as well as a few absentee votes, were released on election night and trickled in throughout the rest of the week. FiveThirtyEight correctly predicted that close races "might have to wait for those last few ballots before knowing who won."[81] Despite Biden's lead dropping throughout the week, it became clear that Trump's margin among election day votes would not be enough to overtake Biden's lead: Trump needed 59% of the outstanding vote to win,[82][83] but continuously won around only 53% of the votes released in several ballot dumps after election day.[84]

On November 11, Decision Desk HQ, along with several other outlets, projected that Biden would carry the state.[85] On November 12, ABC News, NBC News, CNN and The New York Times all projected Biden to carry the state shortly after 11:00 p.m. Eastern.[86][87][88]

Objection

On January 6, as a joint session of Congress began to certify the election for President-elect Joe Biden and Vice President-elect Kamala Harris, there was an objection to Arizona's 11 electoral votes, brought forward by Representative Paul Gosar of Arizona's 4th congressional district and Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, and signed by 67 other Senators and Representatives.[89] Debates began over the objection in the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives, but were abruptly cut short after threats by pro-Trump demonstrators in that escalated into a full blown storming of the Capitol, forcing the building to be locked down and Congress to be evacuated. After the Capitol was secured at 5:40 p.m.[90] and Congress reconvened, the objection failed 6-93 in the Senate, and 121-303 in the House.[91] The riot reportedly dissuaded several Republican Senators and Representatives from objecting to the Electoral College results.[92]

Lawsuits

Following the election, Donald Trump, the Arizona Republican Party, Republican National Committee, and several others filed lawsuits attempting to overturn the results of the election in Arizona, citing unsubstantiated claims of voter fraud.

Overvotes lawsuit

On November 7, 2020, the Trump campaign, the Republican National Committee, and the Arizona Republican Party filed a lawsuit against Secretary of State Katie Hobbs and Maricopa County Recorder Adrian Fontes that alleged that overvotes were "incorrectly rejected". Overvotes occur when a voter mark more than the options allowed in a given race, and stray markings can often be processed as an overvotes by tabulation machines. The machines are programmed to alert voters of the overvote, allowing them to either request a new ballot or proceed with the original one. The lawsuit argued that those who chose to file their "original ballots are entitled to a manual inspection of their ballots later," and claimed that voters were urged to cast their original ballots by poll workers rather than request a new one. In total, 4,816 votes were deemed overvotes, which would be insufficient to overcome Biden's 10,457-vote advantage. A representative for Maricopa County stated that only "180 potential overvotes" were involved in the lawsuit, and that it would be "absurd" to assume all 180 were incorrectly counted.[93] The Trump campaign requested that their evidence be kept secret from the public, but the judge refused to allow the secrecy.[94] The Trump campaign also stated that they had video footage from within a polling area; however, such footage would be illegal if taken within 75 feet of a polling area with voters present. Thomas Liddy, a lawyer representing Maricopa County, deemed the lawsuit unnecessary, as if their claims were correct, both Biden and Trump votes would be equally affected, while Roopali Desai, an attorney representing the Secretary of State, argued the lawsuit attempted to "find a problem when one does not exist."

Mick West, a skeptical investigator and creator of the website Metabunk, cited how the percentage of votes deemed overvotes was lower or the same percentage as the last four elections, and a considerable decrease from 2016, when 21,785 overvotes (1.35%) were cast in the presidential election in Maricopa County.[95]

On November 10, 2020, Associate Presiding Civil Judge Daniel Kiley accepted a request from Snell & Wilmer, the law firm which was representing the Trump campaign and its allies, to withdraw from the Arizona lawsuit.[96][97] On November 11, 2020, Arizona Attorney General Mark Brnovich rejected Trump's voter fraud claim during an interview with Fox Business and stated that Biden would win the state of Arizona.[98][99] On November 13, the Trump campaign dropped their lawsuit after it became evident that the number of votes potentially to be contested would not overcome Biden's margin of victory in the state.[100]

Analysis

Biden became the first Democrat to win Arizona since Bill Clinton's victory in the 1996 United States presidential election, and only the second time since Harry S. Truman in 1948. He is also the first Democrat to win Maricopa County since Truman,[101] with a victory margin of 2.18%, or 45,109 votes.[63] Arizona had long been a Republican stronghold since 1952, even being the only non-Southern state to vote for 'favorite son' Barry Goldwater in his landslide defeat against Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964.[28] This dominance has been mostly attributable to Maricopa County, which is by far the largest county in Arizona; it is the state capital and largest city, Phoenix, as well as several other major cities including Glendale and Tempe, representing over 61.62% percent of Arizona's population.[3] Though metropolitan centers have long remained Democratic, vast swaths of suburbs, which attracted old Republican voters from the rest of the country after the advent of air conditioning and retirement communities, have kept the state consistently in the Republican column after the New Deal.[28] Any chance Biden had of carrying the state depended on doing reasonably well in Maricopa, which narrowly voted for Trump in 2016, the largest county won by Trump that year.[28] Clinton won Arizona mainly by holding his deficit in Maricopa to single digits, which made him the only candidate to ever win the state without carrying Maricopa.[5] Ultimately, Biden's lead in Maricopa was over four times his statewide margin of 10,457 votes. Biden also became the first Democrat to break 47% of the vote statewide since Lyndon B. Johnson did so in 1964. Biden's statewide winning margin of 0.3% remained out of range for a recount, since Arizona Revised Statutes does not have provisions for candidate- or voter-requested recounts and an automatic recount will only be performed if the margin is lower than 0.1%.[102]

Arizona was seen as a potential Democratic flip throughout the year, as the state's increasing Hispanic population as well as an influx of retirees and younger college-educated voters were becoming increasingly friendly to the Democratic Party; further signaling the state's blue shift were Arizona's midterm elections, where the Democrats flipped a U.S. Senate seat for the first time since 1988 and won three other statewide races as well as gaining a 5–4 majority in the state's House of Representatives delegation and nearly winning the state legislature.[28] Dilution of the Republican's strength was also seen in local politics, most significantly in Maricopa County, in 2016, when Democrats won two county-wide races for County Recorder and Sheriff. In the latter race, former police sergeant Paul Penzone defeated controversial Republican Sheriff Joe Arpaio, a controversial figure who utilized resources to perpetuate conspiracy theories about Barack Obama's birth certificate and engage in police misconduct, prison overcrowding, racial profiling, and a crackdown on undocumented immigrants.[28] Trump pardoned Arpaio on August 25, 2017, after he failed to obey a court order in a case investigating his department's racial profiling to detain immigrants, drawing negative reactions from public figures and civil rights groups.[103]

Some Republicans, such as U.S. Representative from Florida Matt Gaetz, have come to attribute Trump's loss to the unpopularity of Governor Doug Ducey and Senator Martha McSally,[104] who lost to Democrat Mark Kelly in the simultaneous Senate special election by a much larger margin of 78,806 votes (2.35%).[63]

College-educated and moderate voters

Exit polls from the Associated Press[7] indicated that Biden carried college-educated white voters 50–48, which make up 28% of Arizona's electorate. He also carried college-educated voters overall by 53–48 and lost suburban voters by only 51–48. Suburban backlash against Trump and the Republican Party was indicated as far back as 2016, when Arizona shifted 5.5 percentage points to the left even as 40 other states shifted to the right.[25] Among other states that shifted to the left were California, Georgia, Kansas, Texas, and Virginia, all of which states where the primary Republican voting base lied in the vast suburbs and exurbs outside of major cities.[105] Past Republicans had done very well in the white, heavily educated Phoenix suburbs: Mitt Romney won college-educated voters in Arizona 58–40 in 2012, John McCain by 55–43 in 2008, and George W. Bush by 54–46 in 2004. They also carried suburban voters by roughly twenty points.[9] Perhaps the greatest sign of the suburban revolt was in Arizona's 6th congressional district – the most educated district in Arizona,[28] it has been represented by Republicans for all but two years of its existence, and Bush, Romney, and McCain all won upwards of 60% of the vote in their respective elections.[106][64] This time around, Trump won it by a mere four points.

Joe Biden campaigned on his longtime friendship with the late Senator John McCain from Arizona.
Joe Biden campaigned on his longtime friendship with the late Senator John McCain from Arizona.

John McCain and moderate Republicans

Romney, McCain, and Bush were all seen as much more moderate than the Trump wing of the party – several of their former staffers outright endorsed Biden, stating "Given the incumbent president’s lack of competent leadership, his efforts to aggravate rather than bridge divisions among Americans, and his failure to uphold American values, we believe the election of former Vice President Biden is clearly in the national interest."[107] Trump frequently disparaged moderate Republicans, reinvigorating the term RINO ("Republican in name only") to refer to members of the Republican Party who refused to support Trump's efforts to challenge the election results or even Trump's campaign at all.[108] Trump and his family had criticized the moderate wing of the party on several occasions,[109] which was seen as divide that could prove mortal for the Republican Party in Arizona.[110] On February 29, 2020, Trump called Romney a "low life" after he voted to convict Trump on abuse of power in 2020,[111] which made Romney the only Senator in history to vote to convict a president of his own party. Romney would later vote to convict him again in 2021 for incitement of insurrection in response to the 2021 storming of the United States Capitol.

Perhaps the most fatal blow to the Trump campaign was his unabashed criticism of the late Senator McCain, who represented Arizona from 1987 to 2018. Several sources told The Atlantic that Trump told his aides that McCain was "a fucking loser" in response to McCain receiving half-staff flag honors following his death of brain cancer in 2018.[112] Trump took credit for the Veterans Choice Act on several occasions despite it being championed by McCain and passed in 2014.[28] He previously disparaged McCain on other occasions, stating "I don't like losers" in reference to him losing the 2008 election, "I like people that weren't captured" in reference to his being a prisoner of war in the Vietnam War,[113] and criticizing him on his deciding vote against the American Health Care Act of 2017, a "skinny repeal" of Obamacare.[114] These incidents culminated in Cindy McCain, John McCain's widow, endorsing Biden on September 22, 2020, tweeting that "There's only one candidate in this race who stands up for our values" in reference to the vice president.[115] Democratic advertising often referenced Biden's longtime friendship with McCain[11][116] in order to appeal to moderate voters.[117]

Most analysts referenced Trump's attack on the moderate wing of the Republican Party (especially McCain) as an extreme disadvantage in the state of Arizona which had already been growing more unfavorable for Republicans.[13][118][119] An article from Politico argued that the Trump campaign "did more damage to the Republican Party in Arizona than almost anywhere else."[120]

Hispanic and Latino voters

Pushing Biden over the edge was the Latino vote, who made up 19% of the electorate, higher than in previous years. Though Democrats have historically won ethnic and racial minorities by large margins,[121] the Arizona Republican Party has had an especially strained relationship with the Latino community going back to 2010 in the wake of the controversial Arizona SB 1070 law, which was seen as, by some, unfairly targeting the Latino community.[7][failed verification] Historically, Democrats' biggest margins have been in heavily minority counties including two on the southern border, Pima, the second most populous county and home to Tucson, as well as Santa Cruz. A 2020 survey from the Pew Research Center[122] found that the most important issue among Hispanic voters was to "establish [a] way for most immigrants in the U.S. illegally to stay legally," with 54% responding that it was very important and 29% that it was somewhat important. 42% also responded that "improv[ing] security of country's borders" was also a very important issue, and 34% that it was somewhat important. During the campaign, Biden campaigned on ending construction of Trump's Mexican border wall, dramatically increase the refugee cap from Trump's historically low 15,000 cap, and rolling out an easier pathway to citizenship for undocumented and prospective immigrants,[123] including a proposed bill introduced after his inauguration that would unveil up a pathway to citizenship for all 11 million estimated undocumented immigrants.[124] Meanwhile, Trump enacted several immigration restrictions on asylum seekers, refugees, and prospective legal and illegal immigrants, and some pundits credited Trump's victory in 2016 to immigration fearmongering.[125]

February 29, 2020: Tom O'Halleran (second from right), a Democratic representative from AZ-01, meets with the Navajo Nation Housing Authority. Navajo voters pushed Biden over the edge in the state of Arizona as well as O'Halleran in the concurrent House of Representatives elections.
February 29, 2020: Tom O'Halleran (second from right), a Democratic representative from AZ-01, meets with the Navajo Nation Housing Authority. Navajo voters pushed Biden over the edge in the state of Arizona as well as O'Halleran in the concurrent House of Representatives elections.

While Biden did carry the Hispanic/Latino vote by a large 59-40 margin,[7] this was eleven points weaker than Hillary Clinton's 61-31 win in 2016 among Latinos, in spite of her loss statewide.[126] Santa Cruz County, where 83.46% of the population is Hispanic or Latino,[127] swung 12 points more Republican than in 2016, while Yuma County (63.76% Hispanic or Latino)[128] swung 5.1 points more Republican.[129] Nonetheless, these swings were cancelled out by a massive increase in turnout and a significant increase in the number of Hispanic voters.[130][131]

Native American voters

An increase in indigenous voting was also considered vital to Biden's victory – turnout in the northeast of the state surged compared to 2016.[132] Biden easily won Apache County, dominated by the Navajo and Fort Apache reservations; and Coconino County, encompassing the Havasupai Nation and parts of the Navajo, Hopi, and Hualapai nations. The Navajo is the largest Native American reservation in the country.[133] Anywhere from 60 to 90% of the Navajo Nation's 67,000 registered voters voted for Biden.[134] In Pima County, Biden won the precincts encompassing the Tohono O'odham, San Xavier, and Pascua Yaqui reservations, often with over 90% of the vote.[135]

On the congressional district level, Biden flipped Arizona's 1st congressional district, which Trump won in 2016 by a margin of 3,054 votes, or a 1.05% margin.[136] The district encompasses Casa Grande, Flagstaff, and vast swaths of Native American reservations, most crucially the Navajo Nation, while conservative support has been anchored in whiter rural and exurban regions.[28] AZ-01 has historically supported Republicans in presidential elections (albeit by narrow margins), a trend bucked by Biden who win the district 50.1%-48.4%.[64]

Concurrent elections

The presidential election was held concurrently with elections to the House of Representatives and Senate. In the 2020 United States Senate special election, incumbent Republican Martha McSally, who lost the 2018 Senate election but was appointed to the Senate to replace Jon Kyl (who in turn replaced the late John McCain), ran for re-election, but was defeat by Democrat and former astronaut Mark Kelly. Kelly was widely expected in polling and forecasts to outperform Biden[28][137] due to McSally's unpopularity,[138] and ended up doing so by 2.05 percentage points. It also corresponded with 2020 Arizona Proposition 207, a referendum to approve the legalization and taxation of recreational marijuana, which was approved by over 60% of voters. However, House Democrats underperformed Biden, and Republicans won 50.13% of votes on the general ballot to the Democrats' 49.85%, possibly due to the lack of third party candidates in all 9 races.[63]

Kelli Ward (left), future Chair of the Arizona GOP, would ultimately vote to censure Doug Ducey (second from left) for his refusal to overturn the Arizona election results.
Kelli Ward (left), future Chair of the Arizona GOP, would ultimately vote to censure Doug Ducey (second from left) for his refusal to overturn the Arizona election results.

Aftermath

On November 24, 2020, Governor Doug Ducey acknowledged that Biden won the state.[139]

On January 24, 2021, the Arizona GOP voted to censure Cindy McCain, Jeff Flake, and Doug Ducey, all of whom vehemently denied conspiracy theories from the Trump campaign arguing that the results in Arizona were fraudulent and invalid.[140][141] Between January 6 and January 20, the Arizona Secretary of State office reported that over 8,000 Republicans changed their party registration to Democrat, Libertarian, or unaffiliated, which was attributed to said actions by Trump and the Arizona GOP.[142][143]

See also

Notes

Partisan clients
  1. ^ The Justice Collaborative Project is an affiliate of the Tides Centre, a liberal fiscal sponsorship provider
  2. ^ a b The Center for American Greatness is a pro-Trump organization
  3. ^ This poll's sponsor exclusively supports Democratic candidates
  4. ^ a b The American Action Forum is a 501 organisation which usually supports Republican candidates
  5. ^ Smart and Safe Arizona endorsed Proposition 207 prior to this poll's sampling period
  6. ^ Poll sponsored by the Defend Students Action Fund.
  7. ^ The Human Rights Campaign endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period
  8. ^ Heritage Action is the sister organisation of the Heritage Foundation, which exclusively endorses Republican candidates
  9. ^ AFSCME endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period
  10. ^ This poll's sponsor is the American Principles Project, a 501(c)(4) organization that supports the Republican Party.
  11. ^ Poll sponsored by the McSally campaign
  12. ^ Poll sponsored by 314 Action
Voter samples and additional candidates
  1. ^ Total of candidates officially reported, of 613,355 ballots cast.
  2. ^ Percentages reported by the Arizona Secretary of State do not add up to 100. This may be due to the fact that candidates who formally withdrew (Bennet, Bloomberg, Booker, Delaney, Klobuchar, and Steyer[21]) do not have their vote totals officially reported.[19]
  3. ^ CBS News' presidential election ratings uniquely do not contain a category for Safe/Solid races.
  4. ^ NPR's presidential election ratings uniquely do not contain a category for Safe/Solid races.
  5. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  6. ^ a b c d e f g h Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  7. ^ a b c d e f g h i Standard VI response
  8. ^ "Some other candidate" and West (B) with 1%; would not vote with 0%
  9. ^ If only Biden, Trump and "some other candidate" were available
  10. ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%; would not vote with 0%
  11. ^ Results considering those who lean towards a given candidate among those initially predisposed towards abstention, indecision or a candidate besides Biden or Trump in the response section immediately above
  12. ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%
  13. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  14. ^ "Other candidate or write-in" with 0%
  15. ^ "Other" with 1.5%
  16. ^ "Someone else" with 6%
  17. ^ "Refused" with 5%; "Other" with 1%
  18. ^ "Someone else" with 1%; would not vote with 0%
  19. ^ Includes "Refused"
  20. ^ "None of these" with 1%; "Other" with no voters
  21. ^ "Some other candidate" with 3%
  22. ^ "Someone else" with 1.7%
  23. ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%; West (B) with 1%; would not vote with 0%
  24. ^ If only Biden, Trump and "some other candidate" were available
  25. ^ "Some other candidate" with 3%; would not vote with 0%
  26. ^ "Refused" with 1%
  27. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  28. ^ With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  29. ^ "Other" with 1%; "Refused" with 0%
  30. ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%; West (B) and would not vote with 0%
  31. ^ If only Biden, Trump and "some other candidate" were available
  32. ^ "Some other candidate" with 3%; would not vote with 0%
  33. ^ "Some other candidate" with 3%
  34. ^ a b c d e f Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  35. ^ "Some other candidate" with 3%
  36. ^ Results generated with high Democratic turnout model
  37. ^ "Some other candidate" with 3%
  38. ^ Results generated with high Republican turnout model
  39. ^ "Some other candidate" with 3%
  40. ^ "Refused" with 4%; "Other" with 1%
  41. ^ "Someone else/third party" with 3%
  42. ^ "Some other candidate" and would not vote with 1%; West (B) with 0%
  43. ^ If only Biden, Trump and "some other candidate" were available
  44. ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%; would not vote with 0%
  45. ^ "Other candidate" with 1%; "No one" with no voters
  46. ^ With a likely voter turnout model featuring high turnout
  47. ^ With a likely voter turnout model featuring low turnout
  48. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  49. ^ "Refused" with 0%
  50. ^ If the only candidates were Biden and Trump
  51. ^ "Refused" with 0%
  52. ^ "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 1%
  53. ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%; would not vote with 0%
  54. ^ "Refused" with 3%
  55. ^ "Some other candidate" with 3%; "Refused" with 2%
  56. ^ "Someone else" with 1%; would not vote with 0%
  57. ^ Includes "Refused"
  58. ^ "Refused" with 1%
  59. ^ "Another candidate" with 2%
  60. ^ If the only candidates were Biden and Trump
  61. ^ "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 1%
  62. ^ "Neither" with 2%; "other" with 0%; would not vote with no voters
  63. ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%; would not vote with 0%
  64. ^ "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 1%
  65. ^ "No one" with 1%; "Other candidate" with 0%
  66. ^ With a likely voter turnout model featuring higher turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
  67. ^ With a likely voter turnout model featuring lower turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
  68. ^ "Someone else" with 1%; would not vote with 0%
  69. ^ Includes "Refused"
  70. ^ "Someone else" with 2%; would not vote with 1%; "Refused" with 0%
  71. ^ "Someone else/third party" with 3%
  72. ^ Would not vote with 1%
  73. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  74. ^ "Other/not sure" with 6%
  75. ^ West (B) and "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 0%
  76. ^ "Other" with 1%
  77. ^ "Other" with 2%; would not vote with 1%
  78. ^ Listed as Jacob Hornberger (L)
  79. ^ If the only candidates were Biden and Trump
  80. ^ West (B) with 2%; "Another third party/write-in" with 1%
  81. ^ Including voters who lean towards a given candidate
  82. ^ "Another Party Candidate" with 1%
  83. ^ If the only candidates were Biden and Trump
  84. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  85. ^ Not yet released
  86. ^ "Other" with 1%; "Neither" 3%
  87. ^ West (B) with 2%; "Another Third Party/Write-In" with 1%
  88. ^ Not yet released
  89. ^ "Someone else/third party" with 4%; would not vote with 0%
  90. ^ "Refused" with 0%
  91. ^ Not yet released
  92. ^ "Other" with 3.1%; "refused" with 0.2%
  93. ^ Not yet released
  94. ^ "other" with 2%
  95. ^ "Another candidate" and would not vote with 2%
  96. ^ "Someone else" with 5%
  97. ^ Not yet released
  98. ^ "Libertarian Party candidate/Green Party candidate" with 5%
  99. ^ Not yet released
  100. ^ "Other" with 5%; would not vote with 1%
  101. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  102. ^ Not yet released
  103. ^ "Some other candidate" with 4.3%
  104. ^ Includes "refused"
  105. ^ "Third party/write-in" with 3%
  106. ^ "Refused" with 1%
  107. ^ Not yet released
  108. ^ Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  109. ^ Refused with 0%
  110. ^ Refused with 0%
  111. ^ Refused with 0%
  112. ^ Refused with 1%
  113. ^ Refused with 1%
  114. ^ The Constitution Party did not have ballot access in Arizona. Daniel Clyde Cummings and Ryan Huber registered as write-in candidates representing the party instead of the national ticket led by Don Blankenship and William Mohr.

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Further reading

External links

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