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2020 United States presidential election in Alabama

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

2020 United States presidential election in Alabama

← 2016 November 3, 2020 2024 →
Turnout63.1% Decrease
 
Donald Trump official portrait (cropped).jpg
Joe Biden presidential portrait (cropped).jpg
Nominee Donald Trump Joe Biden
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Florida Delaware
Running mate Mike Pence Kamala Harris
Electoral vote 9 0
Popular vote 1,441,170 849,624
Percentage 62.03% 36.57%

Alabama Presidential Election Results 2020.svg
County results

President before election

Donald Trump
Republican

Elected President

Joe Biden
Democratic

The 2020 United States presidential election in Alabama took place on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states and the District of Columbia participated.[1] Alabama voters chose nine electors[2] to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting incumbent Republican President Donald Trump and his running mate, incumbent Vice President Mike Pence, against Democratic challenger and former Vice President Joe Biden and his running mate, United States Senator Kamala Harris of California. Also on the ballot was the Libertarian nominee, psychology lecturer Jo Jorgensen and her running mate, entrepreneur and podcaster Spike Cohen. Write-in candidates were permitted without registration, and their results were not individually counted.[3][4]

Prior to the election, all 14 news organizations making predictions considered this a state Trump would win, or otherwise a safe red state. In 2016, Trump won Alabama by a 27.72% margin,[5] the largest margin for any candidate in Alabama since Richard Nixon's 46.89% margin in 1972. In 2020, Trump won the state with 62.03% of the vote to Biden's 36.57%, a margin of 25.46%,[6] with Biden improving on Hillary Clinton's 2016 loss by 2.26%. This was the fifth election in a row in which the Republican nominee won over 60% of the vote in Alabama.[7] A socially conservative Bible Belt state, Alabama has voted for the Republican candidate in every election since 1980 and has done so by double-digit margins in all of them except 1980, 1992, and 1996. The last time a Democratic nominee won the state was when fellow Southerner Jimmy Carter carried it in 1976, and it has not even given 40% of the vote to the Democratic nominee since 2000.

Biden's biggest victories were in Jefferson County, home to the Yellowhammer State's largest city of Birmingham, and Montgomery County, which encompasses the state capital of Montgomery. In addition, he easily won all 12 Black Belt counties. However, these victories were offset by Trump's landslide wins among white evangelicals in the suburbs and rural areas, as well as all other major cities including Mobile, Huntsville, Alabaster, and Tuscaloosa. Barbour and Conecuh counties, both of which voted for Democrat Barack Obama in 2012 but switched to the Republican column in 2016, remained there this year. Alabama weighed in as 29.91 percentage points more Republican than the national average in 2020.

Alabama was one of seventeen states where Trump received less percentage of the vote than he did in the 2016 presidential election.[a] This election also marked the first time since 1992 that Alabama and neighboring Georgia did not vote for the same presidential candidate.

Primary elections

The primary elections were held on Super Tuesday, March 3, 2020.

Republican primary

As one of the Super Tuesday states, little campaigning has been done here, and the focus had been on the highly competitive Republican senatorial primary, which was expected to boost turnout.[citation needed]

Former Massachusetts Governor William Weld challenged incumbent president Donald Trump in the Republican primary in Alabama.[8] Trump received 96.22% of the vote[9] and all 50 delegates,[10] while Bill Weld received only 1.52% of the vote. Uncommitted votes made up the other 2.27%.

2020 Alabama Republican presidential primary[9]
Candidate Popular vote Delegates[10]
Count Percentage
America Symbol.svg
Donald Trump
695,470 96.22% 50
Bill Weld 10,962 1.52% 0
Uncommitted 16,378 2.27% 0
Total 722,809 100% 50

Democratic primary

Joe Biden's victory in Alabama was near-guaranteed. Four years earlier, Hillary Clinton carried the state with 77.84% against Bernie Sanders and won every county and congressional district, a feat repeated by Biden.[11] FiveThirtyEight, which made state-by-state predictions prior to the primaries, gave Biden a 92% chance at winning the Yellowhammer State, a landslide over Sanders' 5% chance.[12] Aggregate polling from FiveThirtyEight right before election day showed Biden up with 40.2%, Sanders at 18.4%, Bloomberg at 15.9%, Warren at 10.9%, Gabbard at 0.5%, and other/undecided 14.1%.[13] 270toWin had Biden ahead as well with 44.5% of support, 23.5 percentage points ahead of Bernie Sanders at 21%.[14]

The week before, Biden swept the South Carolina primary by a 28.88% margin over Sanders, reviving Biden's candidacy after crushing losses in Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada.[15] Additionally, the moderate wing of the primary, consisting of former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg, Senator Amy Klobuchar from Minnesota, representative Beto O'Rourke from Texas's 16th district, and Senator Kamala Harris from California coalesced behind and endorsed Biden while the progressive wing, consisting of Senators Sanders and Warren, remained fractured.[16][17][18][19][20] Thus, right before Super Tuesday, Biden's support surged.

As with most states in the American South, the plurality – 49% – of Alabama's Democratic electorate is African American, and these voters backed Biden with 72% per exit polls by CNN.[21] Biden's best performance, regionally, was in the Black Belt, a historically Democratic region due to high proportions of African Americans, which is attributable to the prominence of slavery in this region before emancipation. He carried the Birmingham/South Central region with 68%, and this region comprises 44% of the Democratic electorate in the state. Biden won voters 45 to 64 with 67% and those older than 65 with 78%. He also won all education groups, ideologies, and party affiliations.
Popular vote share by county   Biden—40–50%   Biden—50–60%   Biden—60–70%   Biden—70–80%
Popular vote share by county
  Biden—40–50%
  Biden—50–60%
  Biden—60–70%
  Biden—70–80%
2020 Alabama Democratic presidential primary[22]
Candidate Votes % Delegates[23]
Joe Biden 286,065 63.28 44
Bernie Sanders 74,755 16.54 8
Michael Bloomberg 52,750 11.67 0
Elizabeth Warren 25,847 5.72 0
Michael Bennet (withdrawn) 2,250 0.50 0
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn) 1,416 0.31 0
Tom Steyer (withdrawn) 1,048 0.23 0
Tulsi Gabbard 1,038 0.23 0
Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn) 907 0.20 0
Andrew Yang (withdrawn) 875 0.19 0
Cory Booker (withdrawn) 740 0.16 0
John Delaney (withdrawn) 294 0.07 0
Marianne Williamson (withdrawn) 224 0.05 0
Julian Castro (withdrawn) 184 0.04 0
Uncommitted 3,700 0.82 0
Total 452,093 100% 52

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[24] Safe R November 3, 2020
Inside Elections[25] Safe R November 3, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[26] Safe R November 3, 2020
Politico[27] Safe R November 3, 2020
RCP[28] Safe R November 3, 2020
Niskanen[29][30] Safe R November 3, 2020
CNN[31] Safe R November 3, 2020
The Economist[32] Safe R November 3, 2020
CBS News[33][b] Likely R November 3, 2020
270towin[34] Safe R November 3, 2020
ABC News[35] Safe R November 3, 2020
NPR[36][c] Likely R November 3, 2020
NBC News[37] Safe R November 3, 2020
538[38] Safe R November 3, 2020

Polling

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Donald
Trump

Republican
Other/
Undecided
[d]
Margin
270 to Win September 1 – October 13, 2020 October 27, 2020 38.0% 58.0% 4.0% Trump +20.0
FiveThirtyEight until November 2, 2020 November 3, 2020 37.8% 57.4% 4.8% Trump +19.5
Average 37.9% 57.7% 4.4% Trump +19.8
Polls
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[e]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump

Republican
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Jo
Jorgensen

Libertarian
Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 1,808 (LV) ± 3.5% 62%[f] 36%
Swayable Oct 27 – Nov 1, 2020 330 (LV) ± 7.9% 55% 38% 7%
Data for Progress Oct 27 – Nov 1, 2020 1,045 (LV) ± 3% 58% 38% 3% 1% 0%[g]
Auburn University At Montgomery Oct 23–28, 2020 853 (LV) ± 4.4% 58% 39% 3%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 1–28, 2020 3,363 (LV) 61% 37%
Swayable Oct 23–26, 2020 266 (LV) ± 7.8% 56% 37% 7%
Moore Information (R)[A] Oct 11–14, 2020 504 (LV) ± 4.5% 55% 38%
Auburn University at Montgomery Sep 30 – Oct 3, 2020 1,072 (RV) ± 4.0% 57% 37% 6%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Sep 1–30, 2020 1,354 (LV) 59% 39% 2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Aug 1–31, 2020 1,220 (LV) 65% 33% 2%
Tyson Group/Consumer Energy Alliance[B] Aug 17–19, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 48% 44% 0% 0%[h] 7%
Morning Consult Jul 24 – Aug 2, 2020 609 (LV) ± 4.0% 58% 36% 2%[i] 4%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jul 1–31, 2020 1,583 (LV) 63% 35% 2%
Auburn University at Montgomery Jul 2–9, 2020 567 (RV) ± 5.1% 55% 41% 4% 1%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jun 8–30, 2020 649 (LV) 63% 35% 2%
FM3 Research/Doug Jones[C] May 14–18, 2020 601 (LV) ± 4% 53% 39%
Mason-Dixon Feb 4–6, 2020 625 (RV) ± 4% 58% 38% 4%
WPA Intelligence Jan 7–9, 2020 500 (LV) 59% 38% 3%
Former candidates
Donald Trump vs. Michael Bloomberg
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[e]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Michael
Bloomberg (D)
Undecided
Mason-Dixon Feb 4–6, 2020 625 (RV) ± 4% 54% 40% 6%
Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[e]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Pete
Buttigieg (D)
Undecided
Mason-Dixon Feb 4–6, 2020 625 (RV) ± 4% 58% 37% 5%
Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[e]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Bernie
Sanders (D)
Undecided
Mason-Dixon Feb 4–6, 2020 625 (RV) ± 4% 60% 37% 3%
WPA Intelligence Jan 7–9, 2020 500 (LV) 59% 37% 4%
Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[e]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Elizabeth
Warren (D)
Undecided
Mason-Dixon Feb 4–6, 2020 625 (RV) ± 4% 62% 35% 3%
Hypothetical polling
With Generic Opponent
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[e]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Generic
Opponent
Undecided
JMC Analytics Dec 16–18, 2019 525 (LV) ± 4.3% 54% 42%[j] 3%

Fundraising

According to the Federal Election Commission, in 2019 and 2020, Donald Trump and his interest groups raised $4,412,645.01,[39] Joe Biden and his interest groups raised $2,412,420.93,[40] and Jo Jorgensen raised $8,172.29[41] from Alabama-based contributors.

Candidate ballot access

In addition, write-in candidates were allowed without registration, and their votes were not counted individually.[3][4]

Electoral slates

Technically the voters of Alabama cast their ballots for electors, or representatives to the Electoral College, rather than directly for the President and Vice President. Alabama is allocated 9 electors because it has 7 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 9 electors who pledge to vote for their candidate and their running mate. Whoever wins the most votes in the state is awarded all 9 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than their candidate is known as a faithless elector. In the state of Alabama, a faithless elector's vote is counted and not penalized.[42][43]

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 15, 2020, to cast their votes for president and vice president. All 9 pledged electors cast their votes for President Donald Trump and Vice President Mike Pence. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead, the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols. The electoral vote was tabulated and certified by Congress in a joint session on January 6, 2021 per the Electoral Count Act.

These electors were nominated by each party in order to vote in the Electoral College should their candidate win the state:[44][45][46]

Donald Trump and Mike Pence
Republican Party
Joe Biden and Kamala Harris
Democratic Party
Jo Jorgensen and Spike Cohen
Libertarian Party
Jacquelyn Gay
Jeana S. Boggs
Joseph R. Fuller
John H. Killian
J. Elbert Peters
Joan Reynolds
Rick Pate
Dennis H. Beavers
John Wahl
Brooke Tanner Battle
Linda Coleman-Madison
Earl Hilliard Jr.
Sigfredo Rubio
Lashunda Scales
James Box Spearman
Patricia Todd
Sheila Tyson
Ralph Young
Pascal Bruijn
Lorelei Koory
Shane A. Taylor
Jason Matthew Shelby
Elijah J. Boyd
Dennis J. Knizley
Laura Chancey Lane
Anthony G. Peebles
Franklin R. Dillman

Results

2020 United States presidential election in Alabama[47]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Donald Trump
Mike Pence
1,441,170 62.03% −0.05%
Democratic Joe Biden
Kamala Harris
849,624 36.57% +2.21%
Libertarian Jo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen
25,176 1.08% −1.01%
Write-in 7,312 0.32% −0.70%
Total votes 2,323,282 100%

By county

County[6] Donald Trump
Republican
Joe Biden
Democratic
Jo Jorgensen
Libertarian
Write-ins Margin Total votes
Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes
Autauga 19,838 71.44% 7,503 27.02% 350 1.26% 79 0.28% 12,335 44.42% 27,770
Baldwin 83,544 76.17% 24,578 22.41% 1,229 1.12% 328 0.30% 58,966 53.76% 109,679
Barbour 5,622 53.54% 4,816 45.79% 68 0.65% 12 0.11% 806 7.75% 10,518
Bibb 7,525 78.43% 1,986 20.70% 74 0.77% 10 0.10% 5,539 57.73% 9,595
Blount 24,711 89.57% 2,640 9.57% 209 0.76% 28 0.10% 22,071 80.00% 27,588
Bullock 1,146 24.84% 3,446 74.70% 19 0.41% 2 0.04% −2,300 −49.86% 4,613
Butler 5,458 57.53% 3,965 41.79% 59 0.62% 6 0.06% 1,493 15.74% 9,488
Calhoun 35,101 68.85% 15,216 29.85% 553 1.08% 113 0.22% 19,885 39.00% 50,983
Chambers 8,753 57.27% 6,365 41.64% 141 0.92% 25 0.16% 2,388 15.63% 15,284
Cherokee 10,583 86.03% 1,624 13.20% 82 0.67% 12 0.10% 8,959 72.83% 12,301
Chilton 16,085 83.30% 3,073 15.91% 123 0.64% 29 0.15% 13,012 67.39% 19,310
Choctaw 4,296 57.77% 3,127 42.05% 38 0.51% 3 0.04% 1,169 15.72% 7,437
Clarke 7,324 55.76% 5,755 43.81% 49 0.37% 7 0.05% 1,569 11.95% 13,135
Clay 5,601 80.82% 1,267 18.28% 53 0.76% 9 0.12% 4,334 62.54% 6,930
Cleburne 6,484 89.72% 675 9.34% 60 0.83% 8 0.11% 5,809 80.38% 7,227
Coffee 16,899 75.87% 5,076 22.79% 264 1.19% 36 0.16% 11,823 53.08% 22,275
Colbert 19,203 68.86% 8,343 29.92% 272 0.98% 68 0.24% 10,860 38.94% 27,886
Conecuh 3,442 53.44% 2,966 46.05% 32 0.50% 1 0.02% 476 7.39% 6,441
Coosa 3,631 66.27% 1,796 32.78% 46 0.84% 6 0.11% 1,835 33.49% 5,479
Covington 14,586 83.68% 2,721 15.61% 97 0.56% 26 0.15% 11,865 68.07% 17,430
Crenshaw 4,864 73.51% 1,700 25.69% 44 0.66% 9 0.14% 3,164 47.82% 6,617
Cullman 36,880 88.12% 4,478 10.70% 418 1.00% 75 0.18% 32,402 77.42% 41,851
Dale 14,303 72.46% 5,170 26.19% 233 1.18% 32 0.16% 9,133 46.27% 19,738
Dallas 5,524 30.92% 12,230 68.46% 90 0.50% 20 0.11% −6,706 −37.54% 17,864
DeKalb 24,767 84.37% 4,281 14.58% 250 0.85% 58 0.20% 20,486 69.79% 29,356
Elmore 30,164 73.52% 10,367 25.27% 398 0.97% 101 0.25% 19,797 48.25% 41,030
Escambia 10,869 68.32% 4,918 30.91% 94 0.59% 29 0.18% 5,951 37.40% 15,910
Etowah 35,528 74.43% 11,567 24.24% 531 1.11% 102 0.21% 23,961 50.19% 47,728
Fayette 7,300 83.28% 1,395 15.91% 56 0.64% 15 0.17% 5,905 67.37% 8,766
Franklin 10,376 82.49% 2,086 16.58% 106 0.84% 10 0.08% 8,290 65.91% 12,578
Geneva 10,848 86.47% 1,595 12.71% 90 0.72% 12 0.10% 9,253 73.76% 12,545
Greene 875 18.32% 3,884 81.34% 8 0.17% 8 0.17% −3,009 −63.01% 4,775
Hale 3,192 40.41% 4,663 59.03% 37 0.47% 8 0.10% −1,471 −18.62% 7,900
Henry 6,607 71.06% 2,606 28.03% 69 0.74% 16 0.17% 4,001 43.03% 9,298
Houston 32,618 70.64% 12,917 27.98% 533 1.15% 105 0.23% 19,701 42.66% 46,173
Jackson 19,670 83.22% 3,717 15.73% 208 0.88% 41 0.17% 15,953 67.49% 23,636
Jefferson 138,843 42.61% 181,688 55.76% 3,578 1.10% 1,739 0.53% −42,845 −13.15% 325,848
Lamar 6,174 85.83% 978 13.60% 33 0.46% 8 0.11% 5,196 72.23% 7,193
Lauderdale 31,721 71.54% 11,915 26.87% 537 1.21% 166 0.37% 19,806 44.67% 44,339
Lawrence 12,322 76.86% 3,562 22.22% 126 0.79% 21 0.13% 8,760 54.64% 16,031
Lee 42,221 59.09% 27,860 38.99% 1,019 1.43% 349 0.49% 14,361 20.10% 71,449
Limestone 34,640 70.36% 13,672 27.77% 748 1.52% 175 0.36% 20,968 42.59% 49,235
Lowndes 1,836 26.86% 4,972 72.74% 26 0.38% 1 0.01% −3,136 −45.88% 6,835
Macon 1,541 17.67% 7,108 81.49% 52 0.60% 22 0.25% −5,567 −63.82% 8,723
Madison 102,780 52.77% 87,286 44.82% 3,699 1.90% 1,002 0.51% 15,494 7.95% 194,767
Marengo 5,343 49.02% 5,488 50.35% 59 0.54% 10 0.09% −145 −1.33% 10,900
Marion 12,205 88.40% 1,463 10.60% 115 0.83% 24 0.17% 10,742 77.80% 13,807
Marshall 33,191 83.70% 5,943 14.99% 435 1.10% 86 0.22% 27,248 68.71% 39,655
Mobile 101,243 55.27% 79,474 43.39% 1,938 1.06% 509 0.28% 21,769 11.88% 183,164
Monroe 6,147 57.62% 4,455 41.76% 53 0.50% 13 0.12% 1,692 15.86% 10,668
Montgomery 33,311 33.60% 64,529 65.09% 923 0.93% 376 0.38% −31,218 −31.49% 99,139
Morgan 39,664 73.83% 13,234 24.63% 705 1.31% 119 0.22% 26,430 49.20% 53,722
Perry 1,339 25.60% 3,860 73.80% 24 0.46% 7 0.13% −2,521 −48.20% 5,230
Pickens 5,594 57.86% 4,022 41.60% 40 0.41% 12 0.12% 1,572 16.26% 9,668
Pike 8,042 58.10% 5,636 40.72% 134 0.97% 29 0.21% 2,406 17.38% 13,841
Randolph 8,559 78.98% 2,203 20.33% 61 0.56% 14 0.13% 6,356 58.65% 10,837
Russell 9,864 46.25% 11,228 52.64% 198 0.93% 39 0.18% −1,364 −6.39% 21,329
Shelby 79,700 69.33% 33,268 28.94% 1,462 1.27% 520 0.45% 46,432 40.39% 114,950
St. Clair 36,166 81.38% 7,744 17.43% 446 1.00% 85 0.19% 28,422 63.95% 44,441
Sumter 1,598 25.40% 4,648 73.88% 37 0.59% 8 0.13% −3,050 −48.48% 6,291
Talladega 22,235 62.35% 13,138 36.84% 247 0.69% 43 0.12% 9,097 25.51% 35,663
Tallapoosa 14,963 71.28% 5,859 27.91% 130 0.62% 39 0.19% 9,104 43.37% 20,991
Tuscaloosa 51,117 56.69% 37,765 41.88% 927 1.03% 363 0.40% 13,352 14.81% 90,172
Walker 26,002 83.42% 4,834 15.51% 277 0.89% 57 0.18% 21,168 67.91% 31,170
Washington 6,564 73.95% 2,258 25.44% 45 0.51% 9 0.10% 4,306 48.51% 8,876
Wilcox 1,833 31.05% 4,048 68.58% 17 0.29% 5 0.08% −2,215 −37.53% 5,903
Winston 10,195 90.35% 974 8.63% 102 0.90% 13 0.12% 9,221 81.72% 11,284
Total 1,441,170 62.03% 849,624 36.57% 25,176 1.08% 7,312 0.32% 591,546 25.46% 2,323,282

By congressional district

Trump won 6 of 7 congressional districts. Trump's 81.2% in the 4th congressional district was his best performance of any congressional district in the country. Biden only won the 7th congressional district, a majority-African American district encompassing Selma and parts of Birmingham and Montgomery, but with 70.8% of the vote.[48] These results were identical to the simultaneous House of Representatives elections.

District Donald Trump

Republican

Joe Biden

Democratic

Representative
1st 63.7% 35.3% Jerry Carl
2nd 63.9% 35.1% Barry Moore
3rd 65.3% 33.7%  Mike Rogers
4th 81.2% 17.8% Robert Aderholt
5th 62.7% 35.7% Mo Brooks
6th 67.0% 31.8% Gary Palmer
7th 28.5% 70.8% Terri Sewell

Exit polls

Edison

The following are estimates from exit polls conducted by the Edison Research for the National Election Pool (encompassing ABC News, CBS News, CNN, and NBC News) interviewing 1,201 Alabama voters, adjusted to match the actual vote count.[49]

2020 presidential election in Alabama by subgroup (Edison exit polling)[50]
Demographic subgroup Biden Trump % of

total vote

Total vote 36.57 62.03 99
Ideology
Liberals 91 8 14
Moderates 54 44 36
Conservatives 8 92 50
Party
Democrats 95 5 26
Republicans 2 97 53
Independents 49 44 21
Gender
Men 35 63 45
Women 39 61 55
Race/ethnicity
White 21 77 74
Black 89 11 22
Hispanic or Latino 3
Asian 0
Other 1
Age
18–29 years old 54 44 15
30–44 years old 40 57 23
45–64 years old 37 62 37
65 and older 23 77 25
Sexual orientation
LGBT 5
Heterosexual 32 66 95
Education
Never attended college 26 73 20
Some college education 40 60 25
Associate's degree 29 70 17
Bachelor's degree 40 57 23
Postgraduate degree 52 47 14
Income
Less than $50,000 35 65 37
$50,000 to $99,999 38 60 31
$100,000 or more 33 67 32
Issue regarded as most important
Racial inequality 93 5 18
Coronavirus 7
Economy 8 91 49
Crime and safety 15
Health care 7
Region
North 29 70 24
North Central 26 72 26
Birmingham/South Central 56 42 28
South 33 66 22
Area type
Urban 58 39 25
Suburban 27 72 56
Rural 37 61 20
Family's financial situation today
Better than four years ago 17 82 60
Worse than four years ago 11
About the same 64 34 27

Associated Press

The following are estimates from exit polls conducted by the University of Chicago for the Associated Press interviewing 1,905 likely voters in Alabama, adjusted to match the actual vote count.[51]

2020 presidential election in Alabama by subgroup (Associated Press exit polling)[51]
Demographic subgroup Biden Trump Jorgensen % of

total vote

Total vote 36.57 62.03 1.08 100
Ideology
Liberals 86 13 1 20
Moderates 55 42 2 28
Conservatives 7 92 1 51
Party
Democrats or lean Democrat 96 3 1 33
Republicans or lean Republican 4 94 1 63
Independents 54 40 4 4
Type of vote
Election Day 31 67 1 83
Mail 62 37 1 17
Vote in 2016
Hillary Clinton 97 2 1 27
Donald Trump 3 96 1 53
Someone else 54 30 12 4
Did not vote 41 57 1 16
Gender
Men 32 66 1 46
Women 40 59 1 53
Race/ethnicity
White 20 78 1 75
Black 91 8 1 22
Hispanic or Latino 1
Asian <1
American Indian, Native American, or Alaska Native <1
Native Hawaiian or other Pacific Islander <1
Other 1
Age
18–24 years old 50 45 3 6
25–29 years old 39 59 1 6
30–39 years old 37 60 2 14
40–49 years old 44 55 1 15
50–64 years old 35 64 1 30
65 and older 30 69 <1 29
Religion
Protestant 23 75 1 40
Catholic 40 59 1 7
Mormon 1
Other Christian 35 63 1 26
Jewish 1
Muslim <1
Something else 56 43 1 11
None 60 38 2 13
White evangelical or white-born again Christian
Yes 12 88 <1 53
No 52 46 1 47
Marital status
Married 31 68 1 52
Not married 48 52 1 48
Sexual orientation
LGBT 9
Heterosexual 35 64 1 91
Education
High school or less 33 66 <1 33
Some college education or associate's degree 36 63 1 36
College graduate 39 58 3 20
Postgraduate degree 44 53 1 11
Total household income (2019)
Under $25,000 48 51 1 21
$25,000–$49,999 36 63 1 27
$50,000–$74,999 33 66 <1 18
$75,000–$99,999 30 68 2 14
Over $100,000 32 66 1 19
Union households
Yes 8
No 35 63 2 92
Veteran households
Yes 30 69 <1 32
No 36 62 1 68
Issue regarded as most important
Economy and jobs 9 89 2 32
Healthcare 54 46 <1 9
Immigration 5
Abortion 3
Law enforcement 5
Climate change 1
Foreign policy 1
COVID-19 pandemic 58 40 1 33
Racism 68 29 1 10
Area type
Urban 59 40 <1 13
Suburban 42 55 2 32
Small town 34 64 1 26
Rural 23 77 <1 30

Analysis

The Democratic Party dominated Alabama politics in the early 19th century.[52] The party held an 84-year streak on the presidential ballot from 1876 and 1944, and did not vote for a Republican between 1872 and 1964. Congressional and local politics were effectively one-party systems as well even into the early 21st century. Yet, the Southern Strategy and realignment of political parties made the Republicans the prominent political party in the South as evangelical and southern whites realigned to the Republicans in response to Democratic support of Civil Rights legislation. Republican ascendance to the presidential ballot began in 1964, when conservative Barry Goldwater easily carried the state despite Lyndon B. Johnson's nationwide landslide. Johnson wiped out Goldwater in the rest of the country due to Johnson portraying Goldwater's views as anti-Civil Rights and pro-war, the former of which appealed more to Southern states. Thus, this election marked a turning point in Alabama politics, creating a Republican advantage that slowly trickled downballot.[7] As a consequence, today, it is now one of the quintessential Republican states in the Deep South, and a Trump victory was near-guaranteed.

According to the Pew Research Center, Alabama is tied with Mississippi for the most religious state in the country: as of 2016, 77% of adults are "highly religious" and 82% believe in God.[53] Just as with other Bible Belt states, the dominating white, evangelical population in rural and suburban areas more than offset any gains made by Vice President Biden. Biden did win Jefferson County, which encompasses the Yellowhammer State's largest city, Birmingham, by a margin of 13.15%.[6] Birmingham was a potential host for the 2020 Democratic National Convention, but it was not chosen.[54][55] The rest of the counties he won were in the Black Belt, a Democratic enclave in Alabama due to high proportions of African Americans. Highly fertile black soil made this area an epicenter for slavery in the days of the Solid South, and once these slaves were emancipated in 1865 and enfranchised in the 1960s, this collection of 12 majority-Black counties became solidly Democratic: seven of them gave 70% or more of their ballots to Biden, and two (Greene and Macon) gave him over 80%. However, the Great Migration saw most of these counties become rural and sparsely populated, with the exception of Montgomery County, home to the state capital of Montgomery.[56]

Trump easily outperformed these wins with victories in every other metropolitan area and the Birmingham suburbs. He won, in order of population, Mobile, Madison, Shelby, Tuscaloosa, and Baldwin counties, respectively home to Mobile, Huntsville, Alabaster (and many other Birmingham suburbs), Tuscaloosa, and Daphne. He also carried most rural counties not in the Black Belt, many of them with over 70% of the vote. He also carried the two swing counties of Barbour and Conecuh. His largest margin was in the historically Republican Winston County, where he received 90.35% of the vote, a margin of 81.72%. 18 counties gave President Trump over 80% of the vote and another 17 gave him between 70 and 80%.

Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Trump's strength in Alabama came from 88% of white born again/evangelical Christians, which comprised 53% of voters. Protestant voters backed Trump with 75% of the vote, Catholics with 59%, and other Christians with 63%. Expectedly, Biden had his greatest strength among other religious groups, whom he captured 56–43, and nonreligious voters, who backed him 60–38. 59% of voters believed abortion should be illegal in all or most cases, and these voters backed Trump by 84–15. Other policy divides were also evident: 48% of voters supported COVID-19 restrictions over economic harm, while 50% supported the opposite. These groups backed Biden 68–30 and Trump 90–7, respectively. 70% of voters believed racism is a significant issue in American society, and these voters decided to back Biden 50–48, but were usurped by the other 30% of voters who believed the opposite and gave 94% of their support to Trump.

As is the case in most Southern states, there was a stark racial divide in voting in this election, with Trump capturing 78% of whites and Biden winning 91% of blacks. While Trump carried all gender, age, and education groups, Biden was most competitive among women (53% of voters, backing Trump 59–40), voters aged 18 to 29 (12% of voters, backing Trump 52–45), and postgraduates (11% of the electorate, backing Trump 53–44).[57]

This election corresponded with the 2020 United States Senate election in Alabama, where incumbent Democrat Doug Jones – who was elected by a 21,924 vote margin in a 2017 special election – ran for a full six-year term but was defeated by Republican football coach Tommy Tuberville. Despite losing, Jones outperformed Biden by 5.1 percentage points.

See also

Notes

  1. ^ The other sixteen states were, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Kentucky, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Nebraska, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia.
  2. ^ CBS News' presidential election ratings uniquely do not contain a category for Safe/Solid races.
  3. ^ NPR's presidential election ratings uniquely do not contain a category for Safe/Solid races.
  4. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  5. ^ a b c d e f Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  6. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  7. ^ "Other candidate or write-in" with 0%
  8. ^ "Refused" with 0%
  9. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  10. ^ "Trump does not deserve to be re-elected" with 42% as opposed to "Trump deserves to be re-elected"
Partisan clients
  1. ^ Poll sponsored by Tommy Tuberville's campaign.
  2. ^ The Consumer Energy Alliance is a pro-Keystone XL lobbying group
  3. ^ Poll sponsored by Doug Jones' campaign

References

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Further reading

External links

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