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2020 United States Senate election in Virginia

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

2020 United States Senate election in Virginia

← 2014 November 3, 2020 2026 →
 
Mark Warner 113th Congress photo.jpg
Daniel Gade (cropped).jpg
Nominee Mark Warner Daniel Gade
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 2,466,500 1,934,199
Percentage 56.0% 43.9%

U.S. senator before election

Mark Warner
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Mark Warner
Democratic

The 2020 United States Senate election in Virginia was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the Commonwealth of Virginia, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Senator Mark Warner first won election in 2008 getting 65% of the vote over former governor Jim Gilmore.[1] In 2014, during the Tea Party movement, and declining voter turnout, Senator Warner won re-election with 49.1% of the vote defeating former chairman of the Republican National Committee Ed Gillespie by 0.8%.[2] Incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Warner won reelection to a third term against Republican nominee Daniel Gade.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Republican primary

Seven Republicans declared that they would compete in the race, but only three made the threshold of 3,500 signatures.[6][7] The original signature threshold was 10,000 signatures, but was lowered to 3,500 following a suit by Omari Faulkner.[8] The primary was on June 23.

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

  • Alissa Baldwin, teacher[10]
  • Thomas Speciale, U.S. Army veteran and intelligence officer[11]

Failed to qualify

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Daniel Gade
National Party Officials
U.S. Representatives
State Senators
State Delegates
Individuals

Results

Results by county:  Gade .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{}  Gade—>90%   Gade—80–90%   Gade—70–80%   Gade—60–70%   Gade—50–60%   Gade—40–50%
Results by county:
Republican primary results[27]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Daniel Gade 208,754 67.40%
Republican Alissa Baldwin 56,165 18.13%
Republican Thomas Speciale 44,795 14.46%
Total votes 309,714 100.0%

Independents

Withdrawn

General election

Debates

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[31] Safe D August 17, 2020
Inside Elections[32] Safe D September 18, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[33] Safe D August 5, 2020
Daily Kos[34] Safe D August 31, 2020
Politico[35] Solid D November 2, 2020
RCP[36] Likely D September 17, 2020
Niskanen[37] Safe D September 15, 2020
DDHQ[38] Safe D September 16, 2020
538[39] Safe D September 18, 2020

Endorsements

Mark Warner (D)
Labor Unions
Organizations
Daniel Gade (R)
National party officials
U.S. Representatives
State Senators
State Delegates
Individuals

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Mark
Warner (D)
Daniel
Gade (R)
Other/
Undecided
Swayable October 27 – November 1, 2020 283 (LV) ± 8.3% 61% 39%
Data for Progress October 27 – November 1, 2020 690 (LV) ± 3.7% 57% 42% 1%[b]
Roanoke College October 23–29, 2020 802 (LV) ± 3.4% 55% 39% 6%[c]
Christopher Newport University October 15–27, 2020 908 (LV) ± 3.4% 57% 37% 6%[d]
Swayable October 23–26, 2020 332 (LV) ± 7.3% 60% 40%
Virginia Commonwealth University October 13–22, 2020 709 (LV) ± 4.93% 55% 38% 8%[e]
Schar School/Washington Post October 13–19, 2020 908 (LV) ± 4% 57% 39% 4%[f]
Civiqs/Daily Kos October 11–14, 2020 1,231 (LV) ± 3.1% 54% 43% 2%[g]
Reconnect Research/Roanoke College September 30 – October 12, 2020 602 (LV) 55% 38% 7%[h]
Roanoke College/Reconnect Research September 30 – October 12, 2020 602 (LV) ± 5.4% 55% 38% 7%[i]
Cygnal (R)[j] October 9–11, 2020 607 (LV) 51% 44% 5%[k]
Cygnal (R)[j] September 22–25, 2020 600 (LV) 51% 41%
Christopher Newport University September 9–21, 2020 796 (LV) ± 3.9% 52% 39% 9%[l]
Virginia Commonwealth University August 28 – September 7, 2020 692 (LV) ± 6.22% 55% 38% 6[m]
Roanoke College August 9–22, 2020 566 (LV) ± 4.1% 55% 34% 10%[n]
Hypothetical polling
with Mark Warner and Generic Republican
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Mark
Warner (D)
Generic
Republican
Other Undecided
Roanoke College May 3–16, 2020 563 (LV) ± 4.1% 48% 31%
with Generic Democrat and Generic Republican
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Generic
Democrat
Generic
Republican
Other Undecided
Ipsos/University of Virginia Feb 15–19, 2019 636 (A) ± 4.0% 43% 26% 2% 23%

Results

United States Senate election in Virginia, 2020[53]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Mark Warner (incumbent) 2,466,500 55.99% +6.84%
Republican Daniel Gade 1,934,199 43.91% -4.43%
Write-in 4,388 0.10% +0.02%
Total votes 4,405,087 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold

Notes

  1. ^ a b c Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ "Other candidate or write-in" with 1%
  3. ^ "Refused/would not vote" with 2%; Undecided with 4%
  4. ^ "Someone else" with 0%; Undecided with 6%
  5. ^ "Undecided/Refused" with 8%
  6. ^ "Other" and "Neither" with 0%; would not vote with no voters; Undecided with 4%
  7. ^ "Someone else" with 0%; Undecided with 2%
  8. ^ Undecided with 7%
  9. ^ Undecided with 7%
  10. ^ a b Poll conducted by Daniel Gade's campaign
  11. ^ Undecided with 5%
  12. ^ "Someone else" with 1%; Undecided with 8%
  13. ^ "Don't know/refused" with 6%
  14. ^ "Refused" with 0%

References

  1. ^ "Virginia Elections Database » 2008 U.S. Senate General Election". Virginia Elections Database.
  2. ^ "Virginia Elections Database » 2014 U.S. Senate General Election". Virginia Elections Database.
  3. ^ Seth McLaughlin (July 8, 2019). "Sen. Mark Warner posts $1.8M second-quarter fundraising haul". Washington Times. Retrieved July 8, 2019.
  4. ^ Virginia Department of Elections. "Declaration of Candidacy" (PDF). Commonwealth of Virginia. Retrieved February 1, 2020.
  5. ^ Virginia Department of Elections (November 2019). "June and November, 2020 United States Senate Candidate Bulletin" (PDF). Commonwealth of Virginia. p. 4. Retrieved February 1, 2020.
  6. ^ Moomaw, Graham (April 1, 2020). "Three Republicans qualify for GOP primary to challenge U.S. Sen Mark Warner". Virginia Mercury. Retrieved April 1, 2020.
  7. ^ https://www.elections.virginia.gov/media/castyourballot/candidatelist/June-2020-Primary-Candidates-List-(1).pdf
  8. ^ Moomaw, Graham (March 24, 2020). "GOP candidate sues Virginia election officials, says coronavirus thwarted efforts to get ballot signatures". Virginia Mercury. Retrieved April 1, 2020.
  9. ^ Solano, Sophia (December 12, 2019). "SPA professor and veteran running for Virginia U.S. Senate seat". The Eagle. Retrieved January 5, 2020.
  10. ^ "Baldwin announces run for U.S. senate". The Kenbridge Victoria Dispatch. July 22, 2019.
  11. ^ Berti, Daniel (September 12, 2019). "Woodbridge Army officer launches bid for U.S. Senate". Prince William Times. Retrieved September 16, 2019.
  12. ^ Janney, Josh (January 30, 2020). "Dunn seeking GOP nomination for U.S. Senate seat". The Winchester Star.
  13. ^ Wilson, Patrick (November 13, 2019). "Two Republicans start campaigns for U.S. Senate in Virginia". Richmond Times Dispatch. Retrieved November 14, 2019.
  14. ^ "Former State Dept Official, Georgetown Basketball Player, Launches GOP U.S. Senate Run". The Daily Wire. Retrieved February 10, 2020.
  15. ^ "FEC Form 2 for Report FEC-1346979". docquery.fec.gov.
  16. ^ "On July 4th, Virginia Sen. Mark Warner Harshly Criticized by 2020 Challener, Pro-Tr**p Law Prof Victor Williams". DC Presswire. July 9, 2019. Retrieved July 11, 2019.
  17. ^ "Gary Adkins Announces Termination of His Bid for U.S. Senate 2020". Standard Newswire. December 23, 2019. Retrieved January 5, 2020.
  18. ^ "17 changes to the candidate list. O'Rourke (Democratic) withdraws from Presidential contest". The Green Papers. November 4, 2019. Retrieved May 15, 2020.
  19. ^ "70 changes to the candidate list. Member of Congress Mark Randal Meadows (North Carolina, Republican) resigns". The Green Papers. March 31, 2020. Retrieved May 15, 2020.
  20. ^ Wilson, Reid (December 9, 2019). "Ex-Rep. Scott Taylor to seek old Virginia seat". The Hill. Retrieved December 9, 2019.
  21. ^ Leonor, Mel (December 2, 2019). "Freitas launches bid to challenge Spanberger for congressional seat". Richmond Times-Dispatch. Retrieved December 2, 2019.
  22. ^ Vozzella, Laura (December 15, 2018). "As Va. GOP seeks new course, Corey Stewart says he's finished with statewide politics". The Washington Post. Retrieved December 16, 2018.
  23. ^ "Corey Stewart to quit politics: 'Just isn't exciting for me anymore'". Washington Examiner. January 9, 2019. Retrieved January 13, 2019.
  24. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l Gade, Daniel (January 29, 2020). "Daniel Gade Unloads First Round of Endorsements".
  25. ^ a b c d e f g "State Senator Jill Vogel and Former U.S. Senate Candidate Victor Williams Endorse Daniel Gade". April 9, 2020.
  26. ^ a b c d "State Senator Richard Stuart Endorses Daniel Gade". May 12, 2020.
  27. ^ "Virginia 2020 June Republican Primary". Virginia Department of Elections. Retrieved June 23, 2020.
  28. ^ a b "Virginia Senate 2020 Race". Open Secrets. Retrieved May 15, 2020.
  29. ^ "FILING FEC-1389132". FEC. March 11, 2020. Retrieved May 15, 2020.
  30. ^ a b "Virginia 2020 Senate Candidate List". www.elections.virginia.gov. August 17, 2020. Retrieved August 19, 2020.
  31. ^ "2020 Senate Race Ratings for April 19, 2019". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2019.
  32. ^ "2020 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved July 17, 2020.
  33. ^ "2020 Senate race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved August 28, 2019.
  34. ^ "Daily Kos Elections releases initial Senate race ratings for 2020". Daily Kos Elections. Retrieved February 28, 2020.
  35. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
  36. ^ "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
  37. ^ "2020 Negative Partisanship and the 2020 Congressional Elections". Niskanen Center. April 28, 2020.
  38. ^ "2020 Senate Elections Model". Decision Desk HQ. September 2, 2020. Retrieved September 2, 2020.
  39. ^ Silver, Nate (September 18, 2020). "Forecasting the race for the Senate". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved September 18, 2020.
  40. ^ "IFPTE Releases Its 2020 Congressional Endorsements". ifpte.org. International Federation of Professional and Technical Engineers. July 6, 2020.
  41. ^ "Mark Warner - Black Economic Alliance PAC". Black Economic Alliance.
  42. ^ "Coalition to Stop Gun Violence Endorses Gun Violence Survivors, Speaker Pelosi, Congressional Allies". Coalition to Stop Gun Violence. March 23, 2020.
  43. ^ Muller, Tiffany (January 21, 2020). "End Citizens United Endorses 39 Candidates 10 Years After Citizens United Decision". End Citizens United.
  44. ^ "Human Rights Campaign Endorses 40 House, 5 Senate Pro-Equality Leaders". Human Rights Campaign. May 18, 2020.
  45. ^ Society, Humane. "2020 Endorsements". Humane Society Legislative Fund.
  46. ^ "Meet the 2020 Candidates". Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs.
  47. ^ Rich, Aliyah (March 5, 2020). "LCV Action Fund Endorses Mark Warner for U.S. Senate". League of Conservation Voters.
  48. ^ "U.S. Senate - Education Votes". educationvotes.nea.org.
  49. ^ "2020 Federal Endorsements - NOW PAC". nowpac.org.
  50. ^ "2020 Endorsements". plannedparenthoodaction.org.
  51. ^ "2020 Endorsements". Population Connection.
  52. ^ "Sierra Club #ClimateVoter Guide: Endorsements". Sierra Club.
  53. ^ "2020 November General Official Results". Virginia Department of Elections. Retrieved November 22, 2020.

External links

Official campaign websites
This page was last edited on 23 November 2020, at 00:29
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