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2020 United States Senate election in North Carolina

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

2020 United States Senate election in North Carolina

← 2014 November 3, 2020 2026 →
 
Thom Tillis Official Photo.jpg
James "Cal" Cunningham (cropped 2).jpg
Nominee Thom Tillis Cal Cunningham
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 2,665,598 2,569,965
Percentage 48.7% 46.9%

2020 North Carolina Senate Results by County.svg
County results
Tillis:      40-50%      50-60%      60-70%      70-80%
Cunningham:      40-50%      50-60%      60-70%      70-80%

U.S. senator before election

Thom Tillis
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Thom Tillis
Republican

The 2020 United States Senate election in North Carolina was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of North Carolina, concurrently with the 2020 United States presidential election as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. North Carolina is one of just five states holding presidential, gubernatorial, and senatorial elections concurrently in 2020. On March 3, 2020, incumbent Thom Tillis and former State Senator Cal Cunningham won their respective primaries.[1] Most experts and pollsters considered Cunningham to be the favorite, however, Tillis outperformed pre-election polling to win a narrow victory.[2][3][4]

On November 10, 2020, a week after election day, Cunningham called Tillis to concede the race.[5] Tillis garnered—(48.69%) of the vote and a margin of 1.8% over Cunningham, who received (46.94%)—similar to Tillis's narrow 1.5% victory in 2014.[6][7]

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Thom Tillis
U.S. Presidents
U.S. Executive Branch Officials
Organizations

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Sandy
Smith
Thom
Tillis
Garland
Tucker
Mark
Walker
Paul
Wright
Other Undecided
High Point University February 21–28, 2020 247 (LV) 69% 8% 8%[b] 16%
444 (RV) 58% 7% 10%[c] 26%
Meredith College February 16–24, 2020 353 (LV) ± 3.0% 53% 5% 6%[d] 36%
SurveyUSA February 13–16, 2020 501 (LV) ± 5.0% 59% 3% 8%[e] 29%
High Point University January 31 – February 6, 2020 198 (LV) 62% 7% 5%[f] 27%
400 (RV) 52% 6% 5%[g] 38%
December 20, 2019 Smith withdraws from the race; Wright announces his candidacy
December 16, 2019 Walker announces he will not run[18]
Harper Polling/Civitas (R) December 2–4, 2019 500 (LV) ± 4.38% 11%[h] 63% 25%
December 2, 2019 Tucker withdraws from the race
FOX News November 10–13, 2019 574 (LV) ± 4.0% 4% 54% 11% 5%[i] 26%
Public Policy Polling August 19–20, 2019 564 (V) [j] 38% 31% 31%
Diversified Research (R)[1][A] July 8–9, 2019 500 (V) 40% 30% 30%
WPA Intelligence (R)[B] May 19–21, 2019 502 (LV) ± 4.5% 2%[k] 40% 11% 17% 30%
2%[l] 18% 8% 56% 16%
May 6, 2019 Tucker announces his candidacy[19]
Diversified Research (R)[2][A] Months before May, 2019 [m] 63% 7% 30%

Results

Results by county: .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{}  Tillis—80–90%   Tillis—70–80%   Tillis—60–70%
Results by county:
  Tillis—80–90%
  Tillis—70–80%
  Tillis—60–70%
Republican primary results[1]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Thom Tillis (incumbent) 608,943 78.08%
Republican Paul Wright 58,908 7.55%
Republican Larry Holmquist 57,356 7.35%
Republican Sharon Y. Hudson 54,651 7.01%
Total votes 779,858 100.00%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Cal Cunningham
Erica D. Smith
Federal officials
State officials
Newspapers
Organizations

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Cal
Cunningham
Trevor
Fuller
Atul
Goel
Erica
Smith
Steve
Swenson
Undecided
High Point University February 21–28, 2020 274 (LV) 50% 4% 1% 24% 3% 18%
474 (RV) 42% 5% 1% 24% 4% 4%
Civitas Institute/Spry Strategies February 26–27, 2020 587 (LV) ± 4.1% 45% 2% 1% 23% 1% 28%
NBC News/Marist February 23–27, 2020 568 (LV) ± 5.1% 51% 3% 1% 18% 2% 25%
Public Policy Polling February 23–24, 2020 852 (LV) ± 3.4% 45% 4% 1% 18% 2% 30%
Meredith College February 16–24, 2020 429 (LV) ± 3.0% 43% 2% 1% 14% 2% 36%
Civitas Institute/Spry Strategies February 21–23, 2020 553 (LV) ± 3.8% 48% 1% 0% 21% 1% 29%
SurveyUSA February 13–16, 2020 698 (LV) ± 4.9% 42% 3% 1% 17% 3% 34%
High Point University January 31 – February 6, 2020 224 (LV) 37% 4% 0% 11% 4% 44%
397 (RV) 29% 5% 1% 10% 5% 50%
Public Policy Polling February 4–5, 2020 604 (LV) 29% 3% 2% 10% 4% 52%
Public Policy Polling January 10–12, 2020 509 (LV) 22% 2% 3% 12% 1% 60%
FOX News November 10–13, 2019 669 (RV) ± 4.0% 13% 10% 18% 49%

Results

Results by county:   Cunningham—70-80%   Cunningham—60-70%   Cunningham—50-60%   Cunningham—40-50%   Smith—40-50%   Smith—50-60%   Smith—60-70%   Smith—70-80%
Results by county:
  Cunningham—70-80%
  Cunningham—60-70%
  Cunningham—50-60%
  Cunningham—40-50%
  Smith—40-50%
  Smith—50-60%
  Smith—60-70%
  Smith—70-80%
Democratic primary results[1]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Cal Cunningham 717,941 56.93%
Democratic Erica D. Smith 438,969 34.81%
Democratic Trevor M. Fuller 48,168 3.82%
Democratic Steve Swenson 33,741 2.68%
Democratic Atul Goel 22,226 1.76%
Total votes 1,261,045 100.00%

Other candidates

Libertarian Party

Nominee

Constitution Party

Nominee

Independence Party

Withdrawn

Independent write-in candidates

Withdrawn

General election

Campaign

During the Democratic primary, a Republican-funded Super PAC spent $3 million on ads attacking Cunningham and promoting left-wing rival Erica Smith.[56][57]

Cunningham and Tillis participated in debates on September 13,[58] September 22,[59] and October 1.[60]

In July, Tillis claimed Cunningham had been "silent" on the issue of defunding the police, saying,—"I assume [his] silence is ...consent". In reality, Cunningham had spoken publicly about the issue and written an op-ed a month earlier stating his opposition to defunding the police, advocating police reform instead.[61]

On October 3, the New York Times wrote that the race had fallen into "utter mayhem" within a period of a few hours after Tillis tested positive for COVID-19 and Cunningham admitted to exchanging sexual text messages with a woman who was not his wife, damaging an image that leaned heavily on his character and military service. Days later, the woman confirmed that she had a consensual physical relationship with Cunningham in 2020.[62] The Army Reserve started an investigation into Cunningham.[63] The husband of the woman who confirmed having an affair with Cunningham, himself an Army veteran, called on Cunningham to drop out of the Senate race.[64] Asked repeatedly whether he had had other extramarital affairs, Cunningham declined to answer.[65][66][67][68]

Tillis's diagnosis, which came after an outbreak at a White House ceremony for Supreme Court nominee Amy Coney Barrett, temporarily threw Barrett's confirmation into jeopardy, as two Republican senators had already stated their intention to vote against (though one of them would eventually vote in favor of her confirmation).[69][70]

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
538[71] Lean D (flip) November 2, 2020
Economist[72] Lean D (flip) November 2, 2020
Daily Kos[73] Tossup October 30, 2020
DDHQ[74] Lean D (flip) November 3, 2020
Inside Elections[75] Tilt D (flip) October 28, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[76] Lean D (flip) November 2, 2020
RCP[77] Tossup October 23, 2020
The Cook Political Report[78] Tossup October 29, 2020
Politico[79] Tossup November 2, 2020

Endorsements

Cal Cunningham (D)
U.S. Presidents
U.S. Senators, Representatives, and Federal officials
State officials
Local officials
Organizations
Newspapers
Individuals

Fundraising

In the first quarter of 2020, Cunningham outraised Tillis for the first time, receiving $4.4 million compared to the $2.1 million Tillis raised. Tillis's prior fundraising, however, left him with the advantage in cash on hand, with $6.5 million in the bank, compared to Cunningham's $3 million.[117]

Polling

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

Cal Cunningham vs. Thom Tillis
Source of poll aggregation Dates administered Dates updated Cal Cunningham Thom Tillis Other/Undecided[q] Margin
270 to Win November 2, 2020 November 3, 2020 47.0% 44.2% 8.8% Cunningham +2.8%
Real Clear Politics November 1, 2020 November 3, 2020 47.6% 45.0% 7.4% Cunningham +2.6%

Tillis vs. Cunningham

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Thom
Tillis (R)
Cal
Cunningham (D)
Shannon
Bray (L)
Other /
Undecided
Change Research/CNBC October 29 – November 1, 2020 473 (LV) ± 4.51% 46% 50% 5%[r]
Swayable October 27 – November 1, 2020 619 (LV) ± 5.6% 47% 53%
Ipsos/Reuters October 27 – November 1, 2020 707 (LV) ± 4.2% 46% 48% 6%[s]
Data for Progress October 27 – November 1, 2020 908 (LV) ± 3.3% 46% 51% 1% 1%[t]
Frederick Polls[C] October 30–31, 2020 676 (LV) ± 3.7% 46% 50% 3% 2%[u]
Emerson College October 29–31, 2020 855 (LV) ± 3.3% 47%[v] 50% 2%[w]
Morning Consult October 22–31, 2020 1,982 (LV) ± 2% 43% 47%
CNN/SSRS October 23–30, 2020 901 (LV) ± 4% 44% 47% 2% 5%[x]
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports October 28–29, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 44% 47% 9%[y]
East Carolina University October 27–28, 2020 1,103 (LV) ± 3.4% 46%[v] 48% 5%[z]
Cardinal Point Analytics (R) October 27–28, 2020 750 (LV) ± 3.6% 46% 41% 6% 7%[aa]
Marist College/NBC October 25–28, 2020 800 (LV) ± 4.7% 43% 53% 4%[ab]
Gravis Marketing October 26–27, 2020 614 (LV) ± 4% 44% 46% 9%[ac]
Public Policy Polling (D)[D] October 26–27, 2020 937 (V) ± 3.2% 44% 47% 9%[ac]
Meeting Street Insights/Carolina Partnership for Reform (R) October 24–27, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 43% 47%
Siena College/NYT Upshot October 23–27, 2020 1,034 (LV) ± 3.4% 43% 46% 2% 9%[ad]
Ipsos/Reuters October 21–27, 2020 647 (LV) ± 4.4% 47% 48% 4%[ae]
RMG Research October 24–26, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 42%[k] 49% 9%[af]
40%[ag] 51% 9%[af]
43%[ah] 48% 9%[af]
Swayable October 23–26, 2020 363 (LV) ± 7.1% 50% 50%
SurveyUSA October 23–26, 2020 627 (LV) ± 4.9% 45% 48% 7%[ai]
YouGov/UMass Lowell October 20–26, 2020 911 (LV) ± 4.2% 45% 49% 7%[aj]
Harper Polling/Civitas (R) October 22–25, 2020 504 (LV) ± 4.37% 43% 46% 2% 8%[ak]
YouGov/CBS October 20–23, 2020 1,022 (LV) ± 4.1% 43% 49% 8%[al]
Trafalgar Group October 20–22, 2020 1,098 (LV) ± 2.89% 49% 47% 2% 2%[am]
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports October 20–21, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 45% 45% 10%[an]
Citizen Data October 17–20, 2020 1,000 (LV) ± 3.1% 42% 48% 9%[ao]
Ipsos/Reuters October 14–20, 2020 660 (LV) ± 4.3% 47% 47% 6%[ap]
Morning Consult October 11–20, 2020 1,904 (LV) ± 2.2% 42% 48%
Meredith College October 16–19, 2020 732 (LV) ± 3.5% 38% 43% 4% 15%[aq]
Change Research/CNBC October 16–19, 2020 521 (LV)[ar] 45% 51%
Data for Progress (D) October 15–18, 2020 929 (LV) ± 3.2% 42% 46% 1% 11%[as]
East Carolina University October 15–18, 2020 1,155 (LV) ± 3.4% 47% 48% 5%[at]
ABC/Washington Post October 12–17, 2020 646 (LV) ± 4.5% 47% 49% 4%[au]
Emerson College October 13–14, 2020 721 (LV) ± 3.6% 44% 45% 12%[av]
Civiqs/Daily Kos October 11–14, 2020 1,211 (LV) ± 3.3% 45% 51% 2% 3%[aw]
Siena College/NYT Upshot October 9–13, 2020 627 (LV) ± 4.5% 37% 41% 4% 19%[ax]
Ipsos/Reuters October 7–13, 2020 660 (LV) ± 4.3% 42% 46% 12%[ay]
Monmouth University October 8–11, 2020 500 (RV) ± 4.4% 44% 48% 3% 4%[az]
500 (LV)[ba] 44% 49% 6%[bb]
500 (LV)[bc] 47% 48% 4%[ab]
SurveyUSA October 8–11, 2020 669 (LV) ± 4.8% 39% 49% 11%[bd]
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. (R)[E] October 7–11, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.3% 44% 46% 9%[be]
RMG Research October 7–11, 2020 800 (LV) 36% 46% 4% 15%[bf]
Morning Consult October 2–11, 2020 1,993 (LV) ± 2.2% 41% 47%
Ipsos/Reuters September 29 – October 6, 2020 693 (LV) ± 4.2% 42% 47% 11%[bg]
Public Policy Polling October 4–5, 2020 911 (V) ± 3.3% 42% 48% 11%[bh]
Data For Progress (D) September 30 – October 5, 2020 1,285 (LV) ± 2.7% 39% 50% 2% 9%[bi]
Change Research/CNBC October 2–4, 2020 396 (LV) 46% 50% 4%[bj]
East Carolina University October 2–4, 2020 1,232 (LV) ± 3.2% 47% 46% 7%[bk]
ALG Research (D)[F] September 22–28, 2020 822 (V) 41% 53%
Hart Research Associates (D)[G] September 24–27, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 41% 54%
YouGov/CBS September 22–25, 2020 1,213 (LV) ± 3.6% 38% 48% 14%[bl]
YouGov/UMass Lowell September 18–25, 2020 921 (LV) ± 4.1% 43% 49% 8%[bm]
Meredith College September 18–22, 2020 705 (RV) ± 3.5% 42% 43% 4% 13%[bn]
Change Research/CNBC September 18–20, 2020 579 (LV) 43% 48% 9%[bo]
Harper Polling/Civitas (R) September 17–20, 2020 612 (LV) ± 3.96% 38% 44% 3% 15%[bp]
Morning Consult September 11–20, 2020 1,604 (LV) ± (2% – 7%) 38%[bq] 47%
Emerson College September 16–18, 2020 717 (LV) ± 3.6% 43% 49% 8%[br]
Morning Consult September 8–17, 2020 1,664 (LV)[ar] ± (2% – 4%) 39% 46%
Ipsos/Reuters September 11–16, 2020 586 (LV) ± 4.6% 44% 48% 9%[bs]
Siena College/NYT Upshot September 11–16, 2020 653 (LV) ± 4.3% 37% 42% 2% 19%[bt]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies September 12–15, 2020 1,092 (LV) ± 2.97% 38% 49% 13%[bu]
Suffolk University September 10–14, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 38% 42% 6% 15%[bv]
SurveyUSA September 10–13, 2020 596 (LV) ± 5.6% 40% 47% 13%[bw]
CNN/SSRS September 9–13, 2020 787 (LV) ± 4.4% 46% 47% 3% 4%[bx]
893 (RV) ± 4.1% 44% 46% 4% 6%[by]
Kaiser Family Foundation/Cook Political Report August 29 – September 13, 2020 1,116 (RV) 37% 41% 22%[bz]
The Trafalgar Group (R) September 9–11, 2020 1,046 (LV) ± 3.0% 45% 46% 3% 6%[ca]
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research September 7–8, 2020 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 44% 47% 10%[cb]
Benenson Strategy Group/GS Strategy Group[H] August 8 – September 8, 2020 1,600 (LV) ± 2.5% 39% 42% 5% 13%[cc]
Change Research/CNBC September 4–6, 2020 442 (LV) ± 4.6% 44% 51% 5%[cd]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies August 30 – September 3, 2020 951 (LV) ± 3.2% 37% 47% 16%[ce]
Monmouth University August 29 – September 1, 2020 401 (RV) ± 4.9% 45% 46% 2% 7%[cf]
401 (LV)[cg] 45% 47% 8%[ch]
401 (LV)[ci] 46% 46% 8%[ch]
FOX News August 29 – September 1, 2020 722 (LV) ± 3.5% 42% 48% 3% 8%[cj]
804 (RV) 40% 47% 3% 10%[ck]
East Carolina University August 29–30, 2020 1,101 (LV) ± 3.4% 44% 44% 12%[cl]
Change Research/CNBC August 21–23, 2020 560 (LV) ± 3.6% 42% 52% 6%[cm]
Morning Consult August 14–23, 2020 1,541 (LV) ± 2.0% 39% 47% 14%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies August 16–18, 2020 856 (LV) ± 3.4% 38% 47% 16%[cn]
East Carolina University August 12–13, 2020 1,255 (RV) ± 3.2% 40% 44% 16%[co]
Emerson College August 8–10, 2020 673 (LV) ± 3.8% 42% 44% 14%[cp]
Harper Polling/Civitas (R) August 6–10, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 38% 41% 2% 18%[cq]
Change Research/CNBC August 7–9, 2020 491 (LV) ± 4.4% 43% 48% 10%[cr]
Public Policy Polling (D)[I] July 30–31, 2020 934 (V) ± 3.2% 44% 48% 8%[br]
Data for Progress July 24 – August 2, 2020 1,170 (LV) ± 3.2% 41% 49% 10%[cs]
YouGov/CBS July 28–31, 2020 1,121 (LV) ± 3.8% 39% 48% 12%[ct]
HIT Strategies (D)[J] July 23–31, 2020 400 (RV) ± 4.9% 32% 48% 21%[cu]
Change Research/CNBC July 24–26, 2020 284 (LV) ± 5.6% 40% 52% 8%
Morning Consult July 17–26, 2020 1,504 (LV) ± 3.0% 37% 46% 17%
Cardinal Point Analytics (R) July 22–24, 2020 735 (LV) ± 3.6% 43% 43% 1% 13%[cv]
Public Policy Polling July 22–23, 2020 939 (V) ± 3.2% 40% 48% 13%[cw]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies July 19–23, 2020 919 (LV) ± 3.2% 36% 47% 16%[cx]
Marist College/NBC News July 14–22, 2020 882 (RV) ± 4.0% 41% 50% 10%[cy]
Spry Strategies (R)[K] July 11–16, 2020 750 (LV) ± 3.5% 40% 40% 20%[cz]
Cardinal Point Analytics (R) July 13–15, 2020 547 (LV) ± 4.2% 44% 47% 1% 7%[da]
Change Research/CNBC July 10–12, 2020 655 (LV) ± 3.8% 42% 49% 9%[db]
Public Policy Polling July 7–8, 2020 818 (V) ± 3.4% 39% 47% 15%[dc]
Change Research/CNBC June 26–28, 2020 468 (LV)[ar] ± 3.9% 41% 51% 8%[dd]
East Carolina University June 22–25, 2020 1,149 (RV) ± 3.4% 41% 41% 18%[de]
Public Policy Polling June 22–23, 2020 1,157 (V) ± 2.9% 40% 44% 16%[df]
FOX News June 20–23, 2020 1,012 (RV) ± 3.0% 37% 39% 3% 20%[dg]
NYT Upshot/Siena College June 8–18, 2020 653 (RV) ± 4.1% 39% 42% 19%[dh]
Gravis Marketing (R)[L] June 17, 2020 631 (RV) ± 3.9% 46% 45% 9%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies June 14–17, 2020 902 (LV) ± 3.3% 36% 45% 19%[di]
Public Policy Polling June 2–3, 2020 913 (V) ± 3.2% 41% 43% 16%[df]
Harper Polling/Civitas (R) May 26–28, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 38% 36% 3% 24%[dj]
Meeting Street Insights (R) May 9–13, 2020 500 (RV) ± 3.8% 44% 46% 8%[br]
East Carolina University May 7–9, 2020 1,111 (RV) ± 3.4% 40% 41% 19%[dk]
Civiqs/Daily Kos (D) May 2–4, 2020 1,362 (RV) ± 3.0% 41% 50% 9%[dl]
Meredith College April 27–28, 2020 604 (RV) ± 4.0% 34% 44% 22%
SurveyUSA April 23–26, 2020 580 (LV) ± 5.5% 39% 41% 20%[dm]
Public Policy Polling April 14–15, 2020 1,318 (LV) ± 3.4% 40% 47% 13%
Harper Polling/Civitas (R) April 5–7, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 38% 34% 28%
East Carolina University February 27–28, 2020 1,288 (RV) ± 3.2% 44% 42% 14%
NBC News/Marist February 23–27, 2020 2,120 (RV) ± 2.6% 43% 48% 9%
Public Policy Polling[M] February 25–26, 2020 [ar] 911 (RV) 41% 46% 13%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[N] January 11–15, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 48% 44% 8%
ALG Research (D)[O] January 8–13, 2020 700 (LV) 42% 44% 13%
Meredith College September 29 – October 7, 2019 996 (RV) ± 3% 33% 33% 32%
Public Policy Polling (D)[O] September 16–17, 2019 628 (V) ± 3.9% 43% 45% 12%
Fabrizio Ward[H] July 29–31, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 41% 42% 17%
Public Policy Polling[P] June 17–18, 2019 610 (RV) ± 4.0% 40% 41% 19%

Results

While Tillis consistently trailed in pre-election polls, the senator narrowly defeated Cunningham 48.7 to 46.9 and slightly outperformed President Trump in terms of margin of victory. Tillis's upset victory has been largely attributed to Cunningham's response to his affair as well as Tillis's fierce campaigning during the last few weeks of the campaign.[118]

2020 United States Senate election in North Carolina[119]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Thom Tillis (incumbent) 2,665,598 48.69% -0.13%
Democratic Cal Cunningham 2,569,965 46.94% -0.32%
Libertarian Shannon Bray 171,571 3.13% -0.61%
Constitution Kevin E. Hayes 67,818 1.24% N/A
Total votes 5,474,952 100.0%
Republican hold

See also

Notes

Partisan clients
  1. ^ a b Poll sponsored by the Garland Tucker campaign
  2. ^ a b c Poll conducted by the Club for Growth, a pro-Republican PAC
  3. ^ Compete Everywhere primarily supports Democratic candidates
  4. ^ Poll sponsored by Protect Our Care, a pro-Affordable Care Act organization.
  5. ^ Poll sponsored by The American Greatness PAC, which is pro-Trump.
  6. ^ Poll sponsored by Piedmont Rising, a pro-Affordable Care Act organization.
  7. ^ Poll sponsored by The Human Rights Campaign, which has endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period.
  8. ^ a b c d Poll sponsored by AARP.
  9. ^ This poll's sponsor had endorsed Cunningham prior to the sampling period
  10. ^ This poll’s sponsor, DFER, primarily supports Democratic candidates
  11. ^ This poll's sponsor is the American Principles Project, a 501 that supports the Republican Party.
  12. ^ Polling was sponsored by OANN.
  13. ^ Poll sponsored by private client
  14. ^ Internal poll
  15. ^ a b Poll sponsored by End Citizens United, an organization that has exclusively endorsed Democratic candidates
  16. ^ Poll sponsored by VoteVets.org
  17. ^ Poll sponsored by Save My Care, a pro-Affordable Care Act organisation
Voter samples and additional candidates
  1. ^ a b c d e f g h i Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ Hudson with 8%; Holmquist with 5%
  3. ^ Holmquist and Hudson with 5%
  4. ^ Holmquist and Hudson with 3%
  5. ^ Holmquist and Hudson with 4%
  6. ^ Holmquist with 3%; Hudson with 2%
  7. ^ Hudson with 3%; Holmquist with 2%
  8. ^ If the only candidates were Smith and Tillis
  9. ^ "None of the above" with 5%; "other" with 0%
  10. ^ If the only candidates were Tillis and Tucker
  11. ^ a b c d Standard VI response
  12. ^ a b Response after pollster addresses respondents with talking points about Tillis
  13. ^ a b c d e f g h i Not yet released
  14. ^ Response after pollster addresses respondents with short biographies for Tillis and Walker
  15. ^ Response after short biographies and talking points about Tillis
  16. ^ a b Listed as "would consider another candidate in a Republican primary"
  17. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  18. ^ "Refused" with 2%; Did not vote, would not vote and Undecided with 1%
  19. ^ "Some other candidate" with 4%; would not vote with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 2%
  20. ^ Hayes (C) with 1%; "Other candidate or write-in" with 0%
  21. ^ Hayes (C) with 2%
  22. ^ a b With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  23. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  24. ^ Hayes (C) and Undecided with 2%; "None of these" with 1%; "Other" with 0%
  25. ^ "Some other candidate" with 3%; Undecided with 6%
  26. ^ "Some other candidate" with 3%; "Refused" with 2%; Did/would not vote with 0%; Undecided with no voters
  27. ^ Hayes (C) with 2%; Undecided with 6%
  28. ^ a b "Other" and Undecided with 2%
  29. ^ a b Undecided with 9%
  30. ^ Would not vote with 2%; Hayes (C) with 1%; "Someone else" with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 6%
  31. ^ "Some other candidate" with 3%; would not vote with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 1%
  32. ^ a b c "Someoene else" with 4%; Undecided with 5%
  33. ^ Results generated with high Democratic turnout model
  34. ^ Results generated with high Republican turnout model
  35. ^ "Other" with 3%; Undecided with 4%
  36. ^ Did not vote with 1%; "Another candidate" with no voters; Undecided with 6%
  37. ^ Hays (C) with 1%; Undecided with 7%
  38. ^ "Someone else" with 3%; Undecided with 5%
  39. ^ Hayes (C) with 1%; Undecided with 2%
  40. ^ "Some other candidate" with 4%; Undecided with 6%
  41. ^ "Other" with 3%; Undecided with 6%
  42. ^ "Some other candidate" and "Undecided/Refused" with 3%; would not vote with 0%
  43. ^ Hayes (C) with 1%; Undecided with 14%
  44. ^ a b c d Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  45. ^ Hayes (C) with 1%; Undecided with 10%
  46. ^ Did/would not vote and "Some other candidate" with 1%; "Refused" with 0%; Undecided with 3%
  47. ^ "Neither" with 1%; "Other" and would not vote with 0%; Undecided with 3%
  48. ^ Undecided with 12%
  49. ^ Hayes (C) with 1%; "Someone else" with 0%; Undecided with 2%
  50. ^ Hayes (C) with 3%; would not vote with 1%; "Someone else" with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 15%
  51. ^ "Some other candidate" with 5%; would not vote with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 7%
  52. ^ "No one" with 1%; Hayes (C) with 0%; "Other candidate" with no voters; Undecided with 3%
  53. ^ With a likely voter turnout model featuring high turnout
  54. ^ "Other" and Undecided with 3%
  55. ^ With a likely voter turnout model featuring low turnout
  56. ^ "Some other candidate" with 3%; Undecided with 8%
  57. ^ "Other" and "Refused" with 1%; Undecided with 7%
  58. ^ "Some other candidate" with 3%; Undecided with 12%
  59. ^ "Some other candidate" with 4%; would not vote with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 7%
  60. ^ a b Undecided with 11%
  61. ^ Hayes (C) with 1%; Undecided with 8%
  62. ^ Would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 3%
  63. ^ "Some other candidate" with 3%; "Refused" and would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 2%
  64. ^ "Someone else" with 3%; Undecided with 11%
  65. ^ "Another candidate" with 1%; Undecided with 7%
  66. ^ Hayes (C) with 1%; Undecided with 12%
  67. ^ Would not vote with 2%; "Don't recall" with 0%; Undecided with 7%
  68. ^ Bray (L) with 2%; Undecided with 13%
  69. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  70. ^ a b c Undecided with 8%
  71. ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%; would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 6%
  72. ^ Hayes (C), "Someone else" and would not vote with 1%; "Undecided/Refused" with 16%
  73. ^ "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 4%; Undecided with 9%
  74. ^ Bray (L) with 6%; Hayes (C) and "Other" with 2%; "Refused" with 0%; Undecided with 11%
  75. ^ "Another candidate" with 3%; Undecided with 10%
  76. ^ Hayes (C) with 1%; "None of these" and "Other" with no voters; Undecided with 3%
  77. ^ Hayes (C) with 1%; "None of these" and "Other" with 0%; Undecided with 5%
  78. ^ "Neither/Another Party" with 3%; "Undecided/Don't know/Refused" with 19%
  79. ^ Hayes (C) with 1%; Undecided with 5%
  80. ^ "Another candidate" with 3%; Undecided with 7%
  81. ^ Hayes with 1%; "Someone else" with 0%; Undecided with 12%
  82. ^ Would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 4%
  83. ^ "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 3%; Undecided with 13%
  84. ^ Hayes (C) and "No one" with 1%; "Other candidate" with <1%; Undecided with 5%
  85. ^ With a likely voter turnout model featuring higher turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
  86. ^ a b "Other" and Undecided with 4%
  87. ^ With a likely voter turnout model featuring lower turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
  88. ^ Hayes (C), "Other" and would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 5%
  89. ^ Hayes (C) with 2%; "Other" and would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 6%
  90. ^ "Some other candidate" with 3%; Would not vote with 0%; Undecided with 9%
  91. ^ Would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 5%
  92. ^ "Third party/write-in" with 3%; Undecided with 13%
  93. ^ "Some other candidate" with 5%; would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 10%
  94. ^ Undecided with 14%
  95. ^ Hayes (C) with 2%; Undecided with 16%
  96. ^ Would not vote with 2%; Undecided with 8%
  97. ^ "No one" with 10%
  98. ^ "Someone else" with 3%; Undecided with 9%
  99. ^ "Third party candidate" with 4%; would not vote with 2%; Undecided with 15%
  100. ^ Hayes (C) with 2%; Undecided with 11%
  101. ^ Undecided with 13%
  102. ^ "Third party/write-in" with 2%; Undecided with 14%
  103. ^ "Other" with 1%; Undecided with 9%
  104. ^ "Another candidate" with 6%; Undecided with 13%
  105. ^ Hayes (C) with 1%; Undecided with 6%
  106. ^ Undecided with 7%; would not vote with 2%
  107. ^ Undecided with 15%
  108. ^ Undecided with 7%; would not vote with 1%
  109. ^ Undecided with 10%; "Some other candidate" with 8%
  110. ^ a b Undecided with 16%
  111. ^ Undecided with 15%; Hayes (C) with 3%; "other" and would not vote with 1%
  112. ^ Undecided with 17%; "Another candidate" and would not vote with 1%
  113. ^ Undecided with 16%; "Another third party/write in" with 3%
  114. ^ Hayes (C) with 2%; Undecided with 21%
  115. ^ Undecided with 11%; "other candidate" with 8%
  116. ^ Undecided with 5%; "Someone else" with 4%
  117. ^ Undecided with 20%
  118. ^ "It is time to give a new person a chance to do better" with 50% as opposed to "Thillis has performed his job as U.S. Senator well enough to deserve re-election"
  119. ^ "Refused" with 3%
  120. ^ "Prefer not to answer/Refused" with 4%; "Candidate from another political party" with 1%; "Will not vote/not sure" with 0%
  121. ^ "Undecided/Refused" with 8%
  122. ^ "Neither" and "Other Party" with 1%; Undecided with 14%
  123. ^ a b Undecided with 14%; "Neither/other/independent" with 3%
  124. ^ Undecided with 11%; "Neither/other/independent" with 4%
  125. ^ Undecided with 17%; "Neither/other/independent" with 3%
  126. ^ Undecided with 16%; "Neither/other/independent" with 5%
  127. ^ Undecided with 19%; "Neither/other/independent" with 5%
  128. ^ "Undecided" with 8%; "don't know/refused" with 3%
  129. ^ Undecided with 18%; "Neither/other/independent" with 6%
  130. ^ Undecided with 17%; "Neither/other/independent" with 5%
  131. ^ Undecided with 15%; "Neither/other/independent" with 7%
  132. ^ Undecided with 21%; "Neither/other/independent" with 4%

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  116. ^ McCready, Dan [@McCreadyForNC] (October 17, 2019). "If you don't know Cal: he is a fellow veteran and a good friend of mine. Cal is running to challenge Sen Tillis in what was just rated a toss-up race. I'm proud to support Cal. If we're gonna protect voting rights, we MUST return the Senate to Dem control" (Tweet). Retrieved October 17, 2019 – via Twitter.
  117. ^ Bravender, Robin (April 26, 2020). "With first quarter fundraising surge, Cunningham outraises Tillis for the first time". ncpolicywatch.com. NC Policy Watch. Retrieved April 26, 2020.
  118. ^ Millard, Drew. "How the Safe Bet Lost in North Carolina". The Nation. Retrieved December 13, 2020.
  119. ^ "State Composite Abstract Report - Contest.pdf" (PDF). North Carolina State Board of Elections. Retrieved November 24, 2020.

Further reading

External links

Official campaign websites
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