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2020 United States Senate election in New Mexico

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

2020 United States Senate election in New Mexico

← 2014 November 3, 2020 2026 →
 
BenLujan2016 (cropped).jpg
Mark Ronchetti.jpg
Nominee Ben Ray Luján Mark Ronchetti
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 474,483 418,483
Percentage 51.7% 45.6%

New Mexico Senate Election Results by County, 2020.svg
County Results
Luján:      40-50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
Ronchetti:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%

U.S. senator before election

Tom Udall
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Ben Ray Luján
Democratic

The 2020 United States Senate election in New Mexico was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of New Mexico, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections.

On March 25, 2019, incumbent Democratic Senator Tom Udall announced that he would retire.[1][2][3] Udall was the only Democratic senator who did not run for reelection in 2020. Democratic U.S. Representative Ben Ray Luján defeated Mark Ronchetti by a 6.1% margin. Luján underperformed Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden by 4.6%, who won the concurrent presidential election against President Donald Trump by 10.8%.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Ben Ray
Luján
Maggie
Toulouse Oliver
Undecided
GBAO Strategies (D)[A][44] April 15–18, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 64% 25%

Results

Democratic primary results[45]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Ben Ray Luján 225,082 100.00%
Total votes 225,082 100.00%

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

  • Mark Ronchetti, former KRQE chief meteorologist[46]

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

  • Rick Montoya, businessman[49][50]
  • Mick Rich, businessman and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2018[51][52]
  • Louie Sanchez, health care businessman[53][52]

Declined

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Gavin
Clarkson
Elisa
Martinez
Mark
Ronchetti
Undecided
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[B] March 18–22, 2020 400 (V) ± 4.9% 11% 11% 45%

Results

Results by county: .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{}  Ronchetti—70–80%   Ronchetti—60–70%   Ronchetti—50–60%   Ronchetti—40–50%   Martinez—40–50%   Martinez—<30
Results by county:
  Ronchetti—70–80%
  Ronchetti—60–70%
  Ronchetti—50–60%
  Ronchetti—40–50%
  Martinez—40–50%
  Martinez—<30
Republican primary results[45]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Mark Ronchetti 89,216 56.49%
Republican Elisa Martinez 41,240 26.11%
Republican Gavin Clarkson 27,471 17.39%
Total votes 157,927 100.00%

Other candidates

Bob Walsh, the Libertarian nominee
Bob Walsh, the Libertarian nominee

Libertarian Party

Nominee

  • Bob Walsh, nuclear safety scientist[59]

Declined

Results

Libertarian primary results[45]
Party Candidate Votes %
Libertarian Bob Walsh 1,454 100.00%
Total votes 1,454 100.00%

General election

Debate

Host Date & Time Link(s) Participants
Ben Ray Luján (D) Mark Ronchetti (R) Bob Walsh (L)
KOB4 and the Santa Fe New Mexican October 5, 2020 [60] Present Present Present

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[61] Safe D August 17, 2020
Inside Elections[62] Safe D September 18, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[63] Likely D August 5, 2020
Daily Kos[64] Safe D August 31, 2020
Politico[65] Likely D September 9, 2020
RCP[66] Lean D September 17, 2020
Niskanen[67] Safe D September 15, 2020
DDHQ[68] Safe D September 16, 2020
538[69] Safe D September 18, 2020

Endorsements

Ben Ray Luján (D)
U.S. Presidents
Federal officials
Statewide and local politicians
Labor unions
Organizations
Mark Ronchetti (R)
Individuals
Publications

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Ben Ray
Luján (D)
Mark
Ronchetti (R)
Bob
Walsh (L)
Undecided
Research & Polling Inc. October 23–29, 2020 1,180 (LV) ± 2.9% 52% 44% 3% 1%
GBAO Strategies (D)[A] October 14–17, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 52%[b] 41% 5%
54%[c] 43%
Public Policy Polling September 30 – October 1, 2020 886 (LV) ± 3.3% 51% 41% 3% 6%
Research & Polling Inc. August 26 – September 2, 2020 1,123 (LV) ±  2.9% 49% 40% 4% 8%
Public Policy Polling June 12–13, 2020 740 (V) ± 3.6% 48% 34% 18%
Former candidates
Ben Ray Luján vs. Gavin Clarkson
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Ben Ray
Luján (D)
Gavin
Clarkson (R)
Undecided
Emerson College January 3–6, 2020 967 (RV) ± 3.1% 54% 35% 12%
Hypothetical polling
Generic Democrat vs. Generic Republican
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Generic
Democrat
Generic
Republican
GBAO Strategies (D)[A] October 14–17, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 54% 42%

Results

United States Senate election in New Mexico, 2020[106]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Ben Ray Luján 474,483 51.73% -3.83%
Republican Mark Ronchetti 418,483 45.62% +1.18%
Libertarian Bob Walsh 24,271 2.65% N/A
Total votes 917,237 100.0% N/A
Democratic hold

See also

Notes

Partisan clients
  1. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by Luján's campaign.
  2. ^ Poll sponsored by Ronchetti's campaign
Voter samples
  1. ^ a b c d e Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ Standard VI response
  3. ^ If only Luján and Ronchetti were candidates

References

  1. ^ Wagner, John (March 25, 2019). "Udall announces he won't seek another term representing New Mexico". The Washington Post. Retrieved March 25, 2019.
  2. ^ a b c d e Burns, Alexander (March 25, 2019). "Senator Tom Udall Will Retire, Ending a Dynasty in the West". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved March 25, 2019.
  3. ^ Udall, Tom (March 25, 2019). "A message to New Mexico from Tom:". Medium. Retrieved March 25, 2019.
  4. ^ a b Gonzales, Nathan L.; Gonzales, Nathan L. (March 28, 2019). "Ben Ray Luján to announce New Mexico Senate run Monday". Roll Call. Retrieved March 28, 2019.
  5. ^ Terrell, Steve (April 19, 2019). "Maggie Toulouse Oliver set to enter race for U.S. Senate". Santa Fe New Mexican. Retrieved April 19, 2019.
  6. ^ Turner, Scott (December 26, 2019). "Luján has new challenger for Senate". Albuquerque Journal. Retrieved January 3, 2020.
  7. ^ Reichbach, Matthew (October 29, 2019). "Toulouse Oliver ends Senate run". NM Political Report. Retrieved October 29, 2019.
  8. ^ Monahan, Joe (April 24, 2019). "Longest-Serving State Senator Now 94 And Mulling Over Re-election Bid, Plus: An Unusual GOP Northern Congress Candidate". New Mexico Politics with Joe Monahan. Retrieved April 24, 2019.
  9. ^ 4, KOB [@KOB4] (March 28, 2019). "BREAKING: @NewMexicoOAG Hector Balderas says he will NOT run for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by Sen. Tom Udall. #NewMexico #nmpol" (Tweet). Retrieved March 28, 2019 – via Twitter.
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  27. ^ "AFSCME Endorses Luján For U.S. Senate". Los Alamos Daily Post. September 9, 2019.
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External links

Official campaign websites
This page was last edited on 8 January 2021, at 17:30
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