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2020 United States Senate election in New Hampshire

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

2020 United States Senate election in New Hampshire

← 2014 November 3, 2020 2026 →
 
Jeanne Shaheen, official Senate portrait cropped.jpg
3x4.svg
Nominee Jeanne Shaheen Corky Messner
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 450,778 326,229
Percentage 56.6% 41.0%

2020 United States Senate election in New Hampshire results map by county.svg
County results
Shaheen:      40-50%      50–60%      60–70%

U.S. senator before election

Jeanne Shaheen
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Jeanne Shaheen
Democratic

The 2020 United States Senate election in New Hampshire was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of New Hampshire, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen won reelection to a third term after comfortably defeating Republican nominee Corky Messner by 15.6 points and sweeping every single county in the state. This is the first time in over 50 years a Democrat won Belknap County in a Senate race.

Shaheen outperformed Biden in the concurrent presidential election by around 8 points.

The primary election was on September 8, 2020.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

  • Tom Alciere, former Republican state representative[2]
  • Paul J. Krautmann, former dentist[2]

Endorsements

Jeanne Shaheen

Results

Results by county: .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{}  Shaheen—≥90%
Results by county:
  Shaheen—≥90%
Democratic primary results[23]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Jeanne Shaheen (incumbent) 142,012 93.88%
Democratic Paul Krautman 5,914 3.91%
Democratic Tom Alciere 2,992 1.98%
Republican Don Bolduc (write-in) 199 0.13%
Republican Corky Messner (write-in) 137 0.09%
Republican Andy Martin (write-in) 11 0.0%
Republican Gerard Beloin (write-in) 3 0.0%
Total votes 151,268 100.0%

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

  • Bryant "Corky" Messner, corporate attorney and former U.S. Army soldier[24][25]

Eliminated in primary

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Don Bolduc
Federal officials
State officials
Organizations
Individuals
Corky Messner
Federal officials
State officials
  • Dennis Acton, state representative[47]
  • Joe Alexander, state representative[44]
  • Alan Bershtein, state representative[47]
  • Regina Birdsell, state senator and former state representative (2010–2014)[48]
  • Tom Dolan, state representative[44]
  • Fred Doucette, state representative[49]
  • Jess Edwards, state representative[50]
  • Aboul Khan, state representative[47]
  • Tony Lekas, state representative[44]
  • Norman Major, state representative[47]
  • Charles McMahon, state representative[44]
  • Chuck Morse, state senator, state Senate minority leader, and former state Senate president (2013–2018) and acting Governor (2017)[51]
  • Bill O'Brien, Republican candidate in the 2020 U.S. Senate election in New Hampshire and former state representative (2004–2006, 2008–2016) and state House speaker (2010–2012)[52]
  • Mark Pearson, state representative[44]
  • Stephen Pearson, state representative[44]
  • Kim Rice, state representative[53]
  • Steve Schmidt, former state representative (2010–2018)[53]
  • Thomas Walsh, state representative[53]
  • Kenneth Weyler, state representative[53]
  • Michael Yakubovich, state representative[47]
Organizations
Individuals

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Don Bolduc Corey Lewandowski Corky Messner Bill O'Brien Other Undecided
University of New Hampshire August 28 – September 1, 2020 703 (LV) ±  3.7% 31% 52% 0%[b] 17%
Saint Anselm College August 15–17, 2020 475 (RV) ±  4.5% 29% 31% 4%[c] 37%
The Tarrance Group[A] July 12–14, 2020 401 (LV) ±  5% 27% 39%
Remington Research Group[B] June 21–23, 2020 800 (LV) 8% 17% 73%
April 2, 2020 O'Brien withdraws from the race
December 31, 2019 Lewandowski announces he will not run
Emerson College September 6–9, 2019 379 (RV) ± 5.0% 9% 29% 4% 7% 56%
Vote Adjustments/WMUR September 5–6, 2019 402 (LV) ± 4.2% 9% 29% 2% 6% 49%
September 4, 2019 Messner announces his candidacy
Remington Research (R)[B] August 12–14, 2019 200 (RV) 21% 21% 2% 8% 47%
Fabrizio (R)[C] August 11–12, 2019 400 (LV) 11% 30% 10%

Results

Results by county:   Messner—50–60%   Messner—40–50%   Bolduc—40–50%   Bolduc—50–60%
Results by county:
  Messner—50–60%
  Messner—40–50%
  Bolduc—40–50%
  Bolduc—50–60%
Republican primary results[56]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Corky Messner 69,801 50.26%
Republican Don Bolduc 58,749 42.30%
Republican Andy Martin 6,443 4.64%
Republican Gerard Beloin 3,098 2.23%
Democratic Jeanne Shaheen (write-in) 771 0.56%
Democratic Tom Alciere (write-in) 7 0.0%
Democratic Paul Krautmann (write-in) 7 0.0%
Total votes 138,876 100.0%

Other candidates

Justin O'Donnell, the Libertarian nominee
Justin O'Donnell, the Libertarian nominee

Libertarian Party

Nominee

Progressive Bull Moose Party

Did not qualify

  • Thomas Sharpe V, firefighter and U.S. Navy Veteran[2][57]

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[58] Safe D August 17, 2020
Inside Elections[59] Safe D September 18, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[60] Likely D August 5, 2020
Daily Kos[61] Safe D October 29, 2020
Politico[62] Likely D September 9, 2020
RCP[63] Lean D September 17, 2020
Niskanen[64] Safe D September 15, 2020
DDHQ[65] Safe D September 16, 2020
538[66] Safe D September 18, 2020

Endorsements

Corky Messner (R)
Federal officials
State officials
  • Dennis Acton, state representative[47]
  • Joe Alexander, state representative[44]
  • Alan Bershtein, state representative[47]
  • Regina Birdsell, state senator and former state representative (2010–2014)[48]
  • Tom Dolan, state representative[44]
  • Fred Doucette, state representative[49]
  • Jess Edwards, state representative[50]
  • Aboul Khan, state representative[47]
  • Tony Lekas, state representative[44]
  • Norman Major, state representative[47]
  • Charles McMahon, state representative[44]
  • Chuck Morse, state senator, state Senate minority leader, and former state Senate president (2013–2018) and acting Governor (2017)[51]
  • Bill O'Brien, Republican candidate in the 2020 U.S. Senate election in New Hampshire and former state representative (2004–2006, 2008–2016) and state House speaker (2010–2012)[52]
  • Mark Pearson, state representative[44]
  • Stephen Pearson, state representative[44]
  • Kim Rice, state representative[53]
  • Steve Schmidt, former state representative (2010–2018)[53]
  • Thomas Walsh, state representative[53]
  • Kenneth Weyler, state representative[53]
  • Michael Yakubovich, state representative[47]
Organizations
Individuals

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Jeanne
Shaheen (D)
Corky
Messner (R)
Other /
Undecided
American Research Group October 26–28, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 57% 40% 3%[d]
University of New Hampshire October 24–28, 2020 864 (LV) ± 3.3% 54% 43% 2%[e]
Saint Anselm College October 23–26, 2020 1,018 (LV) ± 3.1% 54% 39% 8%[f]
YouGov/UMass Lowell October 16–26, 2020 757 (LV) ± 4.5% 57% 38% 5%[g]
University of New Hampshire October 9–12, 2020 899 (LV) ± 3.3% 55% 40% 6%[h]
Suffolk University October 8–12, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 51% 36% 13%[i]
Saint Anselm College October 1–4, 2020 1,147 (LV) ± 2.9% 53% 38% 8%[j]
Emerson College September 30 – October 1, 2020 700 (LV) ± 3.6% 55% 40% 5%[k]
American Research Group September 25–28, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 56% 40% 4%[l]
University of New Hampshire September 24–28, 2020 972 (LV) ± 3.1% 54% 41% 5%[m]
YouGov/UMass Lowell September 17–25, 2020 657 (LV) ±  4.6% 56% 37% 7%[n]
University of New Hampshire August 28 – September 1, 2020 1,889 (LV) ±  2.3% 54% 36% 9%[o]
University of New Hampshire July 16–28, 2020 1,893 (LV) ± 2.2% 54% 35% 12%[p]
University of New Hampshire June 18–22, 2020 932 (LV) ± 2.8% 50% 37% 13%[q]
University of New Hampshire May 14–18, 2020 788 (LV) ± 3.2% 52% 34% 14%[r]
University of New Hampshire February 19–25, 2020 576 (RV) ± 4.1% 52% 28% 21%[s]
Hypothetical polling
with Don Bolduc
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Jeanne
Shaheen (D)
Don
Bolduc (R)
Other /
Undecided
University of New Hampshire August 28 – September 1, 2020 1,889 (LV) ±  2.3% 53% 37% 10%[t]
University of New Hampshire July 16–28, 2020 1,893 (LV) ± 2.2% 54% 35% 10%[u]
University of New Hampshire June 18–22, 2020 932 (LV) ± 2.8% 51% 39% 11%[v]
University of New Hampshire May 14–18, 2020 788 (LV) ± 3.2% 50% 39% 11%[u]
University of New Hampshire February 19–25, 2020 576 (RV) ± 4.1% 49% 30% 22%[w]
Remington Research (R)[B] August 12–14, 2019 427 (RV) ± 4.7% 47% 42% 11%
Gravis Marketing August 2–6, 2019 505 (RV) ± 4.4% 51% 38% 11%[x]
with Corey Lewandowski
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Jeanne
Shaheen (D)
Corey
Lewandowski (R)
Other /
Undecided
American Research Group December 12–16, 2019 539 (RV) ± 4.2% 58% 35% 7%
Emerson College November 22–26, 2019 1,184 (RV) ± 2.8% 52% 40% 8%
American Research Group September 20–24, 2019 560 (RV) ± 4.1% 56% 34% 10%
Emerson College September 6–9, 2019 1,041 (RV) ± 3.0% 49% 39% 12%
Remington Research (R)[B] August 12–14, 2019 427 (RV) ± 4.7% 50% 37%
with Bill O'Brien
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Jeanne
Shaheen (D)
Bill
O'Brien (R)
Other Undecided
University of New Hampshire February 19–25, 2020 576 (RV) ± 4.1% 51% 30% 5% 14%
Gravis Marketing August 2–6, 2019 505 (RV) ± 4.4% 52% 39% 9%
with Chris Sununu
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Jeanne
Shaheen (D)
Chris
Sununu (R)
Undecided
Emerson College February 21–22, 2019 910 (RV) ± 3.2% 44% 44% 12%
YouGov/UMass Amherst February 7–15, 2019 600 (RV) ± 4.8% 45% 42% 10%
with Kelly Ayotte
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Jeanne
Shaheen (D)
Kelly
Ayotte (R)
Undecided
YouGov/UMass Amherst February 7–15, 2019 600 (RV) ± 4.8% 41% 36% 20%
with Generic Democrat and Generic Republican
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Generic
Democrat
Generic
Republican
Other Undecided
Saint Anselm College August 15–17, 2020 1,042 (RV) ± 3% 49% 44% 2% 4%
Saint Anselm College Jun 13–16, 2020 1,072 (RV) ± 3% 46% 43% 2% 8%
Saint Anselm College Apr 23–27, 2020 820 (RV) ± 3.4% 49% 42% 3% 6%

Results

United States Senate election in New Hampshire, 2020[71]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Jeanne Shaheen (incumbent) 450,771 56.63% +5.17%
Republican Corky Messner 326,229 40.99% -7.22%
Libertarian Justin O'Donnell 18,421 2.32% N/A
Write-in 486 0.06% -0.27%
Total votes 795,907 100.0%
Democratic hold

See also

Notes

Partisan clients
  1. ^ Poll conducted for Corky Messner.
  2. ^ a b c d Poll sponsored by Don Bolduc
  3. ^ Poll sponsored by Lewandowski
Voter samples
  1. ^ a b c d e f g h Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ "Some other candidate" with 0%
  3. ^ "Someone else" with 4%
  4. ^ O'Donnell (L) with 0%; Undecided with 3%
  5. ^ O'Donnell (L) with 2%; "Other" and Undecided with 0%
  6. ^ O'Donnell (L) with 2%; "Someone else" with 1%; Undecided with 5%
  7. ^ "Another candidate" with 1%; Undecided with 4%
  8. ^ O'Donnell (L) with 2%; "Another Candidate" with 0%; Undecided with 4%
  9. ^ O'Donnell (L) and "Refused" with 2%; "Other" with 0%; Undecided with 8%
  10. ^ O'Donnell (L) with 4%; "Someone else" with 2%; Undecided with 5%
  11. ^ "Someone else" with 2%; Undecided with 3%
  12. ^ O'Donnell (L) with 0%; Undecided with 4%
  13. ^ O'Donnell (L) with 3%; "Another Candidate" with 0%; Undecided with 2%
  14. ^ "Another candidate" with 1%; Undecided with 6%
  15. ^ O'Donnell (L) with 3%; Undecided with 6%
  16. ^ "Another candidate" with 1%; Undecided with 11%
  17. ^ "Another candidate" with 0%; Undecided with 13%
  18. ^ "Another candidate" with 1%; Undecided with 13%
  19. ^ "Another candidate" with 4%; Undecided with 17%
  20. ^ O'Donnell (L) with 4%; Undecided with 6%
  21. ^ a b "Another candidate" with 0%; Undecided with 10%
  22. ^ "Another candidate" with 1%; Undecided with 10%
  23. ^ "Another candidate" with 5%; Undecided with 17%
  24. ^ Undecided with 11%

References

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External links

Official campaign websites
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