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2020 United States Senate election in Kentucky

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

2020 United States Senate election in Kentucky

← 2014 November 3, 2020 2026 →
 
Mitch McConnell 2016 official photo (cropped).jpg
Amy McGrath Event- (49220643717) 1.jpg
Nominee Mitch McConnell Amy McGrath
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 1,233,315 816,257
Percentage 57.8% 38.2%

Kentucky Senate Election Results by County, 2020.svg
County Results
McConnell:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
McGrath:      50–60%

U.S. senator before election

Mitch McConnell
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Mitch McConnell
Republican

The 2020 United States Senate election in Kentucky was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the Commonwealth of Kentucky, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Republican Senator Mitch McConnell, who had been Senate Majority Leader since 2015 and senator from Kentucky since 1985, won reelection to a seventh term in office. He faced off against former U.S. Marine fighter pilot Amy McGrath and Libertarian Brad Barron.

The Democratic and Republican primaries took place on June 23, 2020. As the primaries neared, the president of the National Bar Association accused officials of carrying out voter suppression. Compared to typical numbers of 3,700, the number of polling stations was reduced to 200 with only one in Louisville.[1] Because a large number of voters voted by mail, absentee ballots were not counted until June 30. In the primary, over 937,000 people requested absentee ballots or voted early, a far greater number than usual.[2]

Despite much speculation about this race being potentially competitive and large amounts of money being poured in to try and defeat McConnell, he wound up winning a seventh term with his largest margin of victory since 2002, defeating McGrath by nearly 20 percent. He also won Elliott and Wolfe Counties for the very first time, solidifying rural Kentucky's hard swing towards the GOP. Despite this, McGrath outperformed Democratic nominee Joe Biden in the concurrent presidential election; he lost to President Donald Trump by nearly 26%. This was the first election in which McConnell attained more than 1 million votes.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

  • Nicholas Alsager[5]
  • Paul John Frangedakis, chiropractor[5] (switched to independent write-in candidacy after losing primary)[6]
  • Louis Grider, truck driver[5]
  • Neren James[5]
  • Kenneth Lowndes[5]
  • Wesley Morgan, former state representative[7]

Withdrawn

  • Wendell K. Crow, businessman and entrepreneur[5][8] (remained on ballot)
  • Karl Das[9][8]

Results

Results by county: .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{}  McConnell—>90%   McConnell—80–90%   McConnell—70–80%
Results by county:
  McConnell—>90%
  McConnell—80–90%
  McConnell—70–80%
Republican primary results[10]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Mitch McConnell (incumbent) 342,660 82.80%
Republican Wesley Morgan 25,588 6.18%
Republican Louis Grider 13,771 3.33%
Republican Paul John Frangedakis 11,957 2.89%
Republican Neren James 10,693 2.58%
Republican Kenneth Lowndes 5,548 1.34%
Republican Nicholas Alsager 3,603 0.87%
Total votes 413,820 100.0%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Representative Charles Booker was McGrath's main opponent in the Democratic primary.
Representative Charles Booker was McGrath's main opponent in the Democratic primary.

Withdrawn

  • Jimmy Ausbrooks, mental health counselor[19] (endorsed Mike Broihier)[20] (remained on ballot)
  • Steven Cox, registered pharmacy technician[21] (endorsed Charles Booker)[22]
  • Joshua Paul Edwards[23][8]
  • Kevin Elliott, Assistant Professor of Political Science at Murray State University[9][8]
  • Dr. Loretta Babalmoradi Noble[24][8]

Declined

Campaign

There were debates on March 5, 2020[33][34] and June 1, 2020.[35][36]

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Charles
Booker
Amy
McGrath
Other Undecided
Data for Progress[A] June 10–22, 2020 556 (LV) 43% 46% 10%
Garin-Hart-Yang[B] June 16–18, 2020 32% 42%
Civiqs/Data for Progress June 13–15, 2020 421 (LV) ± 5.5% 44% 36% 9%[b] 11%
YouGov Blue/MVMT Communications[C] June 8–12, 2020 313 (RV) ± 7.0% 39% 49% 6%[c] 3%
YouGov Blue/MVMT Communications[C] May 2020 [d] 13% 62%
YouGov Blue/MVMT Communications[C] April 2020 [d] 11% 62%
YouGov Blue/MVMT Communications[C] January 2020 [d] 7% 65%

Endorsements

Mike Broihier
State and local officials from other states
  • Richard Ojeda, West Virginia State Senator for the 7th district (2016–2019); 2020 presidential and U.S. Senate candidate[47]
Individuals
Organizations

Results

Results by county:   McGrath—60–70%   McGrath—50–60%   McGrath—40–50%   Booker—40–50%   Booker—50–60%
Results by county:
  McGrath—60–70%
  McGrath—50–60%
  McGrath—40–50%
  Booker—40–50%
  Booker—50–60%
Democratic primary results[10]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Amy McGrath 247,037 45.41%
Democratic Charles Booker 231,888 42.62%
Democratic Mike Broihier 27,175 4.99%
Democratic Mary Ann Tobin 11,108 2.04%
Democratic Maggie Joe Hilliard 6,224 1.14%
Democratic Andrew Maynard 5,974 1.10%
Democratic Bennie J. Smith 5,040 0.93%
Democratic Jimmy Ausbrooks (withdrawn) 3,629 0.67%
Democratic Eric Rothmuller 2,995 0.55%
Democratic John R. Sharpensteen 2,992 0.55%
Total votes 544,062 100.0%

Other candidates

Libertarian primary

The Libertarian Party of Kentucky did not qualify to nominate through the taxpayer-funded primary and held its own privately operated primary on March 8, 2020. Anyone registered Libertarian in the state of Kentucky as of January 1, 2020, could participate.[56][57] All candidates of the Libertarian Party of Kentucky must defeat None Of The Above (NOTA) to obtain the nomination.[58]

Nominee

  • Brad Barron, farmer and entrepreneur[59]

Reform Party

Withdrawn

Independents

Declared

  • Daniel Cobble (as a write-in candidate)[6]
  • Harold H. Fitzpatrick (as a write-in candidate)[6]
  • Paul John Frangedakis (as a write-in candidate) (switched from Republican candidacy after losing primary)[6]
  • Randall Lee Teegarden (as a write-in candidate)[6]
  • Demetra Wysinger (as a write-in candidate)[6]

Withdrawn

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[62] Likely R October 29, 2020
Inside Elections[63] Safe R October 28, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[64] Likely R November 2, 2020
Daily Kos[65] Safe R October 30, 2020
Politico[66] Likely R November 2, 2020
RCP[67] Likely R October 23, 2020
DDHQ[68] Safe R November 3, 2020
538[69] Safe R November 2, 2020
Economist[70] Likely R November 2, 2020

Endorsements

Polling

Graphical summary

Polls

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Mitch
McConnell (R)
Amy
McGrath (D)
Brad
Barron (L)
Other /
Undecided
Swayable October 23 – November 1, 2020 365 (LV) ± 7.9% 49% 46% 5%
Morning Consult October 22–31, 2020 911 (LV) ± 3% 51% 40%
Bluegrass Community & Technical College October 12–28, 2020 250 (RV) 50% 40% 10%[e]
Cygnal October 19–20, 2020 640 (LV) ± 3.9% 50% 40% 5% 5%[f]
Mason-Dixon October 12–15, 2020 625 (LV) ± 4% 51% 42% 4% 3%[g]
Morning Consult September 11–20, 2020 746 (LV) ± (2% – 7%) 52% 37%
Data for Progress (D) September 14–19, 2020 807 (LV) ± 3.5% 46%[h] 39% 3% 12%[i]
48%[j] 41% 11%[k]
Quinnipiac University September 10–14, 2020 1,164 (LV) ± 2.9% 53% 41% 5%[l]
Quinnipiac University July 30 – August 3, 2020 909 (RV) ± 3.3% 49% 44% 7%[m]
Bluegrass Data (D)[D] July 25–29, 2020 3,020 (RV) ± 2.0% 49% 46% 4%
Morning Consult July 24 – August 2, 2020 793 (LV) ± 3.0% 53% 36% 12%[n]
Spry Strategies (R)[E] July 11–16, 2020 600 (LV) ± 3.7% 55% 33% 12%[i]
Garin-Hart-Yang Research (D)[B] July 7–12, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 45% 41% 7% 7%[o]
Civiqs/Data for Progress June 13–15, 2020 898 (RV) ± 3.8% 53% 33% 4% 11%[p]
RMG Research[F] May 21–24, 2020 500 (RV) ± 4.5% 40% 41% 19%[q]
Bluegrass Data (D)[D] April 7–12, 2020[r] 4,000 (RV) 40% 38% 7%
Change Research (D)[B] January 17–21, 2020 1,281 (LV) ± 2.8% 41% 41% 18%
Garin-Hart-Yang Research (D)[B] January 813, 2020 802 (LV) ± 3.5% 43% 40% 17%
Fabrizio Ward[G] July 29–31, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 47% 46% 6%
Change Research (D)[B] June 15–16, 2019 1,629 (LV) 47% 45% 8%

Results

McConnell was announced as the winner on November 3.[83] When pressed for a potential recount of the election amid legal disputes regarding the general, McConnell dismissed the idea since,—"at the risk of bragging, it wasn't very close."[84]

2020 United States Senate election in Kentucky[85]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Mitch McConnell (incumbent) 1,233,315 57.76% +1.57%
Democratic Amy McGrath 816,257 38.23% -2.49%
Libertarian Brad Barron 85,386 4.00% +0.92%
Write-in 99 0.01% -0.00%
Total votes 2,135,057 100.00% N/A
Republican hold

See also

Notes

Partisan clients
  1. ^ Poll released after the primary in July
  2. ^ a b c d e Poll sponsored by McGrath's campaign
  3. ^ a b c d Poll sponsored by Booker's campaign
  4. ^ a b This poll's sponsor, Ditch Mitch Fund, supported the electoral defeat of Mitch McConnell prior to the sampling period
  5. ^ This poll's sponsor is the American Principles Project, a 501 that supports the Republican Party.
  6. ^ Poll sponsored by U.S. Term Limits, a PAC supporting candidates who support term limits in Congress.
  7. ^ Poll sponsored by AARP.
  8. ^ a b Poll sponsored by The Ditch Mitch Fund
  9. ^ Poll sponsored by Our Lives on the Line
Voter samples
  1. ^ a b c d e f g Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ Broihier and "someone else" with 4%; Tobin with 1%
  3. ^ Broihier with 5%; other with 1%
  4. ^ a b c Not yet released
  5. ^ Undecided with 10%
  6. ^ Undecided with 5%
  7. ^ Undecided with 3%
  8. ^ Standard VI response
  9. ^ a b Undecided with 12%
  10. ^ If only McConnell and McGrath were candidates
  11. ^ Undecided with 11%
  12. ^ "Someone else" with 1%; Undecided with 4%
  13. ^ "Someone else" and would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 5%
  14. ^ "Someone else" and Undecided with 6%
  15. ^ Undecided with 7%
  16. ^ "someone else" with 8%; undecided with 3%
  17. ^ Undecided with 10%; "Some other candidate" with 9%
  18. ^ Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  19. ^ Barron (L) with 4%; "someone else" with 2%; undecided with 3%
  20. ^ Undecided with 7%; "refused" with 1%
  21. ^ Undecided with 6%
  22. ^ Undecided with 8%
  23. ^ Undecided with 10%; "don't know/refused" with 3%

References

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External links

campaign websites
This page was last edited on 29 March 2021, at 09:55
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