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2020 United States Senate election in Colorado

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

2020 United States Senate election in Colorado

← 2014 November 3, 2020 2026 →
 
John Hickenlooper, official portrait, 117th Congress (cropped).jpeg
Cory Gardner official Senate portrait (cropped).jpeg
Nominee John Hickenlooper Cory Gardner
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 1,731,114 1,429,492
Percentage 53.5% 44.2%

2020 United States Senate election in Colorado results map by county.svg
County results
Hickenlooper:      40-50%      50-60%      60-70%      70-80%
Gardner:      40-50%      50-60%      60-70%      70-80%      80-90%

U.S. senator before election

Cory Gardner
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

John Hickenlooper
Democratic

The 2020 United States Senate election in Colorado was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Colorado, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Under Colorado law, the filing deadline for U.S. Senate candidates was March 17, 2020, the third Tuesday in March of the election year; the primary election occurred on June 30.[1][2] Incumbent Republican Senator Cory Gardner ran for reelection to a second term but was defeated by former Democratic Governor John Hickenlooper in the general election.[3] Gardner was unopposed in the Republican primary, and Hickenlooper defeated former State House Speaker Andrew Romanoff in the Democratic primary.[4]

Gardner was one of two Republican U.S. Senators facing reelection in 2020 in a state President Donald Trump lost in 2016, the other being Susan Collins of Maine.[5] Experts believed this to be one of the most likely, if not the most likely, seats to flip to the Democrats, and they were proven to be correct, as Hickenlooper defeated Gardner by a 9.3-point margin. However, Hickenlooper underperformed Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden in the concurrent presidential election by roughly four points.[6] This became the first election Gardner had lost in his political career.[7]

Background

Gardner was elected to the U.S. Senate in 2014, narrowly defeating incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Udall in a very successful election year for Republicans. Gardner was widely considered vulnerable in 2020 due to Colorado's recent Democratic trend and his support for Trump.[8] The seat was expected to be highly competitive and the most likely Republican-held seat to flip Democratic. The Democratic nominee, former governor John Hickenlooper, had a double-digit lead over Gardner in the polls.[9]

Various minor scandals in the days leading up to the June 30 Democratic primary sparked speculation that Romanoff might win, but Hickenlooper had an advantage in name recognition, and harsh negative attacks by Romanoff reportedly led many state Democrats and voters to sour on him.[10]

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Withdrawn

  • Margot Dupre, estate agent[12][13]
  • Gail Prentice, veteran and business owner[14][15]

Endorsements

Cory Gardner (R)
U.S. Presidents
U.S. Executive Branch Officials
Organizations
Other Individuals

Results

Republican primary results [24]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Cory Gardner (incumbent) 554,806 100.00%
Total votes 554,806 100.00%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

Declined

Debates

Host
network
Date Link(s) Participants
John
Hickenlooper
Andrew
Romanoff
9NEWS June 9, 2020 [58] Present Present
CBS4
PBS 12
Colorado Sun
June 10, 2020 [59][60] Present Present
The Denver Post June 16, 2020 [61] Present Present

Endorsements

John Hickenlooper
U.S. Presidents
Former U.S. Executive Branch Officials
U.S Senators
U.S. Representatives
State officials
Local officials
Newspapers
Unions
Organizations
Andrew Romanoff
State officials
Individuals
Newspapers
Organizations

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Jena
Griswold
John
Hickenlooper
Mike
Johnston
Andrew
Romanoff
Other /
Undecided
SurveyUSA June 19–24, 2020 575 (LV) ± 6.0% 58% 28% 15%[d]
Myers Research and Strategic Services[A] June 16–17, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 51% 39%
Unspecified polling firm[A] October 2019 – (LV)[e] 68% 19%
September 3, 2019 Johnston withdraws from the race
Public Policy Polling (D)[B] August 28–29, 2019 509 (LV) 60%[f] 3% 9% 27%[g]
[h] 66% 17% 17%[i]
August 21, 2019 Hickenlooper announces his candidacy
August 9, 2019 Griswold announces that she will not run
Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group July 25–28, 2019 600 (LV) 6% 61% 10% 8% 15%[d]
Public Policy Polling (D) July 12–14, 2019 561 (LV) 4% 44% 3% 12% 38%[j]
Hypothetical polling
with Dan Baer and John Hickenlooper
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Dan
Baer
John
Hickenlooper
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[B] August 28–29, 2019 509 (LV) 11% 72% 17%
with John Hickenlooper and Mike Johnston
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
John
Hickenlooper
Mike
Johnston
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[B] August 28–29, 2019 509 (LV) 69% 14% 18%
with John Hickenlooper and Alice Madden
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
John
Hickenlooper
Alice
Madden
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[B] August 28–29, 2019 509 (LV) 69% 14% 17%
with John Hickenlooper and Angela Williams
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
John
Hickenlooper
Angela
Williams
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[B] August 28–29, 2019 509 (LV) 70% 11% 18%

Caucus

On March 7, 2020, the Colorado Democratic Party held a non-binding Senate primary preference poll at its caucus sites. Attendees could choose delegates to county and then state conventions. If a candidate received at least 30% of the delegates at the state convention they would be placed on the ballot. Some candidates were not listed because they instead chose to attempt to collect signatures to reach the ballot. Candidates needed 1,500 signatures from each congressional district. Hickenlooper and Underwood chose to do both. Romanoff collected the needed signatures as of March 8, 2020.[95][96]

Caucus results

Romanoff was the only candidate to get more than 30% in the initial precinct caucuses. Hickenlooper withdrew from the assembly process soon afterward, choosing to qualify for the ballot exclusively by petition. Ballot access for assembly candidates will be decided at the state assembly. Caucus winners do not always receive the party's nomination; Romanoff won them in the 2010 Democratic primary for Colorado's Senate race, but Michael Bennet won the party's nomination that year.[97]

The aggregate results of the various precinct caucuses on March 7, 2020, were:[98]

Candidate Total Raw Votes Percentage of Vote Won (%)
Andrew Romanoff 8,629 54.98
John Hickenlooper 4,761 30.34
Trish Zornio 976 6.21
Stephany Rose Spaulding 771 4.91
Uncommitted 520 3.31
Erik Underwood 35 0.22

Results

Results by county:  Hickenlooper .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{}  Hickenlooper—70–80%   Hickenlooper—60–70%   Hickenlooper—50–60%    Romanoff   Romanoff–50–60%
Results by county:
Hickenlooper
  •   Hickenlooper—70–80%
  •   Hickenlooper—60–70%
  •   Hickenlooper—50–60%
Romanoff
  •   Romanoff–50–60%
Democratic primary results[99]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic John Hickenlooper 585,826 58.65%
Democratic Andrew Romanoff 412,955 41.35%
Total votes 998,781 100.00%

Other candidates

Libertarian primary

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Results

Libertarian primary results [102]
Party Candidate Votes %
Libertarian Raymon Doane 3,477 62.41%
Libertarian Gaylon Kent 2,094 37.59%
Total votes 5,571 100.00%

Unity Party

Nominee

  • Stephan "Chairman Seku" Evans, former candidate for Mayor of Denver[103]

Eliminated at Unity Party convention

Withdrawn

Write-in candidates

Declared

Withdrawn

General election

Debate

Host Date & Time Link(s) Participants
John

Hickenlooper

Cory Gardner
Colorado State University October 13, 2020
6:00pm MDT
[112] Present Present

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[113] Lean D (flip) October 29, 2020
Inside Elections[114] Lean D (flip) October 28, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[115] Likely D (flip) November 2, 2020
Daily Kos[116] Likely D (flip) October 30, 2020
Politico[117] Lean D (flip) November 2, 2020
RCP[118] Lean D (flip) October 23, 2020
DDHQ[119] Likely D (flip) November 3, 2020
538[120] Likely D (flip) November 2, 2020
Economist[121] Likely D (flip) November 2, 2020

Endorsements

John Hickenlooper (D)
U.S. Presidents
Former U.S. Executive Branch Officials
U.S Senators
U.S. Representatives
State officials
Local officials
Newspapers
Unions
Organizations

Polling

Graphical Summary

Poll Results

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Cory
Gardner (R)
John
Hickenlooper (D)
Other /
Undecided
Keating Research/Onsight Public Affairs/Colorado Sun October 29 – November 1, 2020 502 (LV)[k] ± 4.4% 42% 53%
Data for Progress October 27 – November 1, 2020 709 (LV) ± 3.7% 45% 54% 2%[l]
Swayable October 23 – November 1, 2020 443 (LV) ± 6% 43% 57%
Morning Consult October 22–31, 2020 727 (LV) ± 4% 44% 52%
Morning Consult October 11–20, 2020 788 (LV) ± 3.5% 42% 50%
RBI Strategies & Research October 12–16, 2020 502 (LV) ± 4.4% 39% 53% 7%[m]
RMG Research/PoliticalIQ October 9–15, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 42% 51% 7%[n]
Civiqs/Daily Kos October 11–14, 2020 1,013 (LV) ± 3.6% 42% 53% 3%[o]
Keating Research/OnSight Public Affairs/Melanson October 8–13, 2020 519 (LV) ± 4.3% 41% 51% 7%[p]
Morning Consult October 2–11, 2020 837 (LV) ± 3.4% 40% 50%
YouGov/University of Colorado October 5–9, 2020 800 (LV) ± 4.64% 40% 48% 12%[q]
SurveyUSA October 1–6, 2020 1,021 (LV) ± 3.9% 39% 48% 14%[r]
Morning Consult September 11–20, 2020 613 (LV) ± (2% – 7%) 42%[s] 49%
Morning Consult September 8–17, 2020 599 (LV)[k] ± (2% – 4%) 44% 46%
Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates[C] August 30 – September 5, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 46% 51% 4%[t]
Global Strategy Group (D)[D] August 28 – September 1, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 42% 52% 5%
Morning Consult August 21–30, 2020 638 (LV) ± 4.0% 39%[s] 48% 13%
Morning Consult August 16–25, 2020 ~600 (LV) ± 4.0% 39% 48%
Public Policy Polling (D)[E] August 18–19, 2020 731 (V) ± 3.2% 42% 51% 7%[u]
Morning Consult August 6–15, 2020 ~600 (LV) ± 4.0% 38% 49%
Morning Consult July 27 – August 5, 2020 ~600 (LV) ± 4.0% 39% 50%
Morning Consult July 17–26, 2020 616 (LV) ± 4.0% 42%[v] 48% 11%[w]
Morning Consult July 13–22, 2020 ~600 (LV) ± 4.0% 41% 50%
Public Policy Polling[F] June 29–30, 2020 840 (V) ± 3.4% 40% 51% 9%[x]
Keating Research/OnSight Public Affairs/Melanson May 1–3, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 36% 54% 10%[y]
Montana State University Bozeman April 10–19, 2020 379 (LV) ± 4.4% 31% 48% 21%[z]
Keating Research October 10–14, 2019 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 42% 53% 5%
Emerson College August 16–19, 2019 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 40% 53% 8%
Global Strategy Group (D)[G] August 13–14, 2019 617 (LV) ± 3.9% 39% 49% 13%
Public Policy Polling[B] August 8–11, 2019 739 (V) ± 3.6% 38% 51% 12%

Results

The election was not particularly close, with Hickenlooper winning by 9.32%. Hickenlooper's win was expected, as Colorado has moved more toward being a blue state. Key to Hickenlooper's victory was Denver County and its surrounding suburban counties, Adams, Arapahoe, Boulder, and Jefferson. Gardner did well in the typically red El Paso County, home of Colorado Springs. Gardner also did well in many rural areas of the state. However, Hickenlooper's strong performance in heavily populated counties proved too much for Gardner to overcome. Hickenlooper was also likely helped by Joe Biden, who won the state by 13.5%. Hickenlooper is the first senator from Colorado who was also the Governor of Colorado since Senator Edwin Johnson was elected in 1936. Hickenlooper was sworn in as Senator on January 3, 2021, for a six-year term that expires on January 3, 2027.

United States Senate election in Colorado, 2020[137][138]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic John Hickenlooper 1,731,114 53.50% +7.24%
Republican Cory Gardner (incumbent) 1,429,492 44.18% -4.03%
Libertarian Raymon Doane 56,262 1.74% -0.85%
Approval Voting Daniel Doyle 9,820 0.30% N/A
Unity Stephen Evans 8,971 0.28% -0.04%
Total votes 3,235,659 100.00% N/A
Democratic gain from Republican

See also

Notes

Partisan clients
  1. ^ a b Poll sponsored by Romanoff's campaign
  2. ^ a b c d e f Poll sponsored by 314 Action
  3. ^ Poll sponsored by AARP.
  4. ^ Poll sponsored by Progress Colorado, a progressive and pro-Affordable Care Act organization.
  5. ^ Giffords endorsed Hickenlooper prior to this poll's sampling period
  6. ^ End Citizens United supports candidates who oppose the landmark Citizens United Supreme Court ruling
  7. ^ a b c Poll conducted for Mike Johnston
  8. ^ Poll sponsored by ProgressNow Colorado
  9. ^ Poll sponsored by Our Lives on the Line
  10. ^ Poll sponsored by Save My Care, a pro-Affordable Care Act organisation
Voter samples
  1. ^ A judge ruled that Lorena Garcia could appear on the ballot despite only getting 50% of the signatures needed to qualify, citing how signatures can't be collected due to COVID-19. The Colorado Supreme Court overruled the ruling after an appeal from Colorado's Secretary of State.
  2. ^ A judge ruled that Michelle Ferrigno Warren could appear on the ballot despite only getting 50% of the signatures needed to qualify, citing how signatures can't be collected due to COVID-19. The Colorado Supreme Court overruled the ruling after an appeal from Colorado's Secretary of State.
  3. ^ a b c d e f g h i j Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  4. ^ a b Undecided with 15%
  5. ^ Not yet released
  6. ^ Standard VI response
  7. ^ Undecided with 16%; Baer, Madden and Williams with 2%; Walsh with 1%; "someone else" with 4%
  8. ^ With only Hickenlooper and Romanoff as candidates
  9. ^ Undecided with 17%
  10. ^ Undecided with 29%; Walsh with 4%; Williams with 3%; Baer and Madden with 1%
  11. ^ a b Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  12. ^ "Other candidate or write-in" with 2%
  13. ^ Doane (L) with 2%; Evans (Unity) with 1%; Undecided with 4%
  14. ^ "Some other candidate" with 3%; Undecided with 4%
  15. ^ Doane (L) with 2%; Doyle (Approval Voting), Evans (Unity) and "Someone else" with 0%; Undecided with 1%
  16. ^ "Other candidate" with 3%; Undecided with 4%
  17. ^ "Other" with 1%; Undecided with 11%
  18. ^ "Some other candidate" with 6%; Undecided with 8%
  19. ^ a b Overlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  20. ^ Would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 3%
  21. ^ Undecided with 7%
  22. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sample size and voters who are undecided or for third party candidates
  23. ^ "Someone else" with 5%; Undecided with 6%
  24. ^ Undecided with 9%
  25. ^ Undecided with 9%; "Another candidate" with 1%
  26. ^ "Don't know" with 17%; "other/none of the above" with 4%
  27. ^ "Refused" with 3%; Undecided with 16%
  28. ^ "Other" with 2%; Undecided with 12%
  29. ^ "Neither candidate or other candidate" with 12%
  30. ^ "Undecided" with 10%; "don't know/refused" with 4%
  31. ^ Would not vote/would not vote for U.S. Senate with 2%

References

  1. ^ Griswold, Jena (2019). "Major Party Candidate Petition". Colorado Secretary of State. State of Colorado. Retrieved February 23, 2019.
  2. ^ "Colorado Revised Statutes Title 1 Elections § 1-4-801 Designation of party candidates by petition". Colorado Revised Statutes. State of Colorado. 2019. Retrieved February 23, 2019.
  3. ^ https://www.usnews.com/news/elections/articles/2020-11-03/democrat-john-hickenlooper-defeats-cory-gardner-for-colorado-senate-seat
  4. ^ "2020 State Primary Results Certificate" (PDF). Retrieved January 31, 2021.
  5. ^ Skelley, Geoffrey (July 1, 2019). "Democrats Found A Major Recruit To Take On Susan Collins in 2020". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved August 15, 2019.
  6. ^ "Colorado Election Results". Retrieved February 12, 2021.
  7. ^ "Why John Hickenlooper won and Cory Gardner lost Colorado's U.S. Senate race". Retrieved January 31, 2021.
  8. ^ Rothenberg, Stuart (March 5, 2019). "The most vulnerable Republican senator in 2020". Roll Call.
  9. ^ Dickinson, Tim (November 22, 2019). "The Battle for the Senate". Rolling Stone.
  10. ^ Hulse, Carl (June 27, 2020). "Hickenlooper Stumbles in Colorado Race, Complicating Democrats' Senate Push". The New York Times.
  11. ^ "GARDNER, CORY - Candidate overview". FEC.gov.
  12. ^ Frank, John (April 13, 2020). "How the coronavirus snuffed the primary for U.S. Senate and cemented Hickenlooper as the front-runner". The Colorado Sun. Retrieved May 15, 2020.
  13. ^ "The Green Papers: 2020 General Election". The Green Papers. May 15, 2020. Retrieved May 15, 2020.
  14. ^ Busing, Jo (February 19, 2020). "Lincoln Day Dinner gives insight to election season". Akron News-Reporter. Retrieved May 17, 2020.
  15. ^ "CO US Senate - R Primary". Our Campaigns. May 6, 2020. Retrieved May 17, 2020.
  16. ^ "Trump hands Cory Gardner election year wins". Denver Post.
  17. ^ a b c d e "George W. Bush to hold virtual fundraiser for Republican senators". The Washington Post.
  18. ^ a b Politics, Ernest Luning, Colorado. "Ex-Trump advisor John Bolton revives PACs, endorses Cory Gardner's bid for Senate re-election". Colorado Politics.
  19. ^ a b "Nikki Haley Stumps For Cory Gardner, Says He's 'Got Coloradans' Backs'". August 20, 2019.
  20. ^ a b c d Families, Campaign for Working. "Bauer Endorses Gardner for Congress in CO-4". www.prnewswire.com.
  21. ^ a b RJC. "The RJC is proud to announce that the RJC PAC is endorsing @CoryGardner for reelection to the US Senate. Senator Gardner has been a strong friend top Israel and helped advance the GOP agenda on Capitol Hill!". Twitter.
  22. ^ PAC, Huck. "Candidates - Huck PAC". www.huckpac.com.
  23. ^ Schwartz, Brian (June 18, 2019). "Koch network backs vulnerable GOP Sen. Cory Gardner as he seeks reelection in 2020". CNBC.
  24. ^ "UNITED STATES SENATOR - REPUBLICAN PARTY". Secretary of State of Colorado. Retrieved June 30, 2020.
  25. ^ Garcia, Justin (August 21, 2019). "John Hickenlooper is running for U.S. Senate: "I'm not done fighting for the people of Colorado"". The Denver Post. Retrieved August 22, 2019.
  26. ^ a b c Ernest Luning (February 17, 2019). "Colorado Democrats lining up to take on Cory Gardner in 2020 U.S. Senate race". Colorado Springs Gazette. Retrieved February 25, 2019.
  27. ^ Staver, Anna (February 7, 2019). "Andrew Romanoff joins list of Democrats competing to challenge Cory Gardner". The Denver Post. Retrieved February 7, 2019.
  28. ^ Clark, Kyle (September 12, 2019). "Record-fundraiser Dan Baer drops US Senate bid, supports Hickenlooper in 2020". Retrieved September 12, 2019.
  29. ^ Luning, Ernest (November 27, 2019). "They also ran: 11 Democrats who have left the race for US Senate". Colorado Politics. Retrieved May 15, 2020.
  30. ^ a b Paul, Jesse (May 7, 2020). "Here are the Democrats running to unseat Republican Cory Gardner — and who's [sic] campaigns have ended". The Colorado Sun. Retrieved May 17, 2020.
  31. ^ Luning, Ernest. "Judge rules Bray won't appear on primary ballot despite COVID-19 obstacles to petition drive". Colorado Politics. Retrieved April 30, 2020.
  32. ^ Luning, Ernest (May 1, 2020). "Diana Bray endorses former rival Andrew Romanoff in Democratic US Senate primary". Colorado Politics. Retrieved May 5, 2020.
  33. ^ Paul, Jesse (September 19, 2019). "Denise Burgess abruptly ends Senate campaign amid Colorado Sun questions about federal tax liens". The Colorado Sun. Retrieved September 19, 2019.
  34. ^ Luning, Ernest (July 16, 2019). "Democrats running for Gardner's US Senate seat rake in $4.5M for second quarter". Retrieved October 18, 2019.
  35. ^ Paul, Jesse (May 5, 2020). "Colorado Supreme Court removes second Democratic U.S. Senate candidate, Lorena Garcia, from primary ballot". The Colorado Sun. Retrieved May 5, 2020.
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  38. ^ Ernest Luning. "Douglas County Democrat Danielle Kombo jumps in race for Gardner's US Senate seat". Colorado Politics. Retrieved March 12, 2019.
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  40. ^ Roberts, Michael (July 31, 2019). "Alice Madden on Her Plan to Unseat Cory Gardner in U.S. Senate Race". Westword. Retrieved October 27, 2019.
  41. ^ Burness, Alex (October 11, 2019). "Alice Madden exits U.S. Senate race, says avenues closed after Hickenlooper". The Denver Post. Retrieved October 11, 2019.
  42. ^ Miller, Blair (October 11, 2019). "Alice Madden drops out of Democratic field of Colorado's 2020 US Senate race". The Denver Channel. Retrieved May 15, 2020.
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  47. ^ Justin Wingerter. "John Walsh drops out of U.S. Senate race". Denver Post. Retrieved September 11, 2019.
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Further reading

External links

Official campaign websites
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