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2020 United States Senate election in Alaska

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

2020 United States Senate election in Alaska

← 2014 November 3, 2020 2026 →
 
Senator Dan Sullivan official (cropped).jpg
3x4.svg
Nominee Dan Sullivan Al Gross
Party Republican Independent[a]
Popular vote 191,112 146,068
Percentage 53.9% 41.2%

Alaska Senate Election Results by State House District, 2020.svg
State house district results
Sullivan:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
Gross:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%

U.S. senator before election

Dan Sullivan
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Dan Sullivan
Republican

The 2020 United States Senate election in Alaska was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Alaska, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Republican Senator Dan Sullivan won re–election to a second term in office, defeating Democratic nominee Al Gross, the son of Avrum Gross, who ran as an independent candidate.[2] John Wayne Howe, the nominee of the Alaskan Independence Party, was also on the ballot and finished a distant third.

Both primaries took place on August 18, 2020.[3] Some pundits[which?] considered this to be a potential "dark horse" flip for the Democrats, as Gross did unexpectedly well[according to whom?] in polling despite Alaska usually being considered a Republican stronghold, even leading in some polls.[4] Sullivan won re-election by a margin of 12.7%. Sullivan also became the first candidate since 2002 to win a Senate election in Alaska with more than 50% of the vote.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Withdrawn

Endorsements

Dan Sullivan
U.S. federal officials
Individuals

Primary results

Republican primary results[10]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Dan Sullivan (incumbent) 65,257 100.00%
Total votes 65,257 100.00%

Libertarian-Democratic-Independence primary

Candidates from the Alaska Democratic Party, the Alaska Libertarian Party, and the Alaskan Independence Party appear on the same ballot, with the highest-placed candidate from each party receiving that party's nomination. In October 2017, the Alaska Democratic Party sued for the right to allow non-Democrats to compete for and win the Democratic nomination, which was ultimately decided in their favor in April 2018.[11]

Democratic candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Disqualified from the ballot

  • Larry N. Barnes (Independent)[7][b]

Withdrawn

  • David Darden (Independent), nonpartisan candidate for Anchorage Assembly District 3 Seat E in the 2018 special election[7]

Alaskan Independence candidates

Nominee

  • John Howe (Alaskan Independence), machinist[13]

Endorsements

Primary results

Democratic-Libertarian-Independence primary results[10]
Party Candidate Votes %
Independent Al Gross 50,047 79.87%
Democratic Edgar Blatchford 5,463 8.72%
Alaskan Independence John Howe 4,165 6.65%
Independent Christopher Cumings 2,989 4.77%
Total votes 62,664 100.00%

Other candidates

Green Party

Nominee

Independent

Declared

Withdrawn

  • David Matheny, wildfire technician[30][31]

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[32] Lean R October 13, 2020
FiveThirtyEight[33] Lean R October 7, 2020
Economist[34] Lean R October 6, 2020
Daily Kos[35] Likely R October 6, 2020
DDHQ[36] Lean R October 5, 2020
Inside Elections[37] Likely R October 1, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[38] Lean R October 1, 2020
RCP[39] Likely R September 27, 2020
Niskanen[40] Tossup September 15, 2020
Politico[41] Lean R September 9, 2020

Endorsements

Dan Sullivan (R)
Al Gross (I)
U.S. Senators
State Executives
Local Officials
Individuals
Organizations
Unions

Polls

Graphical summary
Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Dan
Sullivan (R)
Al
Gross (I)
John
Howe (AI)
Other Undecided
Gravis Marketing October 26–28, 2020 770 (LV) ± 3.5% 48% 45% 7%
Public Policy Polling (D)[A] October 19–20, 2020 800 (V) ± 3.5% 44% 41% 5% 10%
Change Research (I)[B] October 16–19, 2020 1,076 (LV) ± 4% 47% 44% 3% 5%
Siena College/NYT Upshot October 9–14, 2020 423 (LV) ± 5.7% 45% 37% 10% 2%[d] 7%[e]
Harstad Strategic Research, Inc. (I)[B] October 10–13, 2020 606 (LV) ± 4% 46% 47%
Harstad Strategic Research, Inc. (I)[B] October 2–6, 2020 600 (LV) 46% 46%
Patinkin Research Strategies September 30 – October 4, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 46% 47% 2%[f] 5%
Alaska Survey Research September 26 – October 4, 2020 696 (LV) 48% 44% 8%
Harstad Strategic Research, Inc. (I)[C] September 20–23, 2020 602 (LV) ± 4% 46% 45%
Public Policy Polling (D)[1] August 27–28, 2020 638 (V) ± 3.9% 43% 43% 14%
Public Policy Polling[D] July 7–8, 2020 1,081 (V) ± 3.0% 39% 34% 27%
Alaska Survey Research June 23 – July 7, 2020 663 (LV) ± 3.8% 53% 40% 7%
Hypothetical polling
with Forrest Dunbar
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Dan
Sullivan (R)
Forrest
Dunbar (D)
Undecided
Patinkin Research Strategies May 28 – Jun 4, 2019 500 (LV) 39% 39% 22%
with Forrest Dunbar as an independent
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Dan
Sullivan (R)
Forrest
Dunbar (I)
Undecided
Patinkin Research Strategies May 28 – June 4, 2019 500 (LV) 42% 40% 19%

Results

United States Senate election in Alaska, 2020[55]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Dan Sullivan (incumbent) 191,112 53.90% +5.94%
Independent Al Gross[a] 146,068 41.19% -4.64%
Alaskan Independence John Howe 16,806 4.74% N/A
Write-in 601 0.17% -0.32%
Total votes 354,587 100.0%
Republican hold

Notes

  1. ^ a b Gross ran as an independent with the nomination of the Democratic Party.[1]
  2. ^ Payment of filing fee was not made prior to the deadline.
  3. ^ a b c Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  4. ^ Would not vote with 1%; "Someone else" with 0%
  5. ^ Includes "Refused"
  6. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
Partisan clients
  1. ^ Poll sponsored by Protect Our Care, a pro-Affordable Care Act organization.
  2. ^ a b c Poll conducted for Gross' campaign.
  3. ^ Poll sponsored by The Independent Alaska PAC, which has supported Al Gross's campaign for the US Senate race in Alaska prior to this poll's sampling period.
  4. ^ Polling's funding was crowdsourced by Election Twitter.

References

  1. ^ a b "Gross announces candidacy for Alaska US Senate seat". Associated Press. June 2, 2019.
  2. ^ Taylor, Jessica (June 12, 2020). "Alaska Senate Moves to Likely Republican". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved August 29, 2020.
  3. ^ "Alaska Division of Elections". www.elections.alaska.gov.
  4. ^ https://twitter.com/Nat_Herz/status/1317942531120898048?s=20
  5. ^ "SULLIVAN, DAN - Candidate overview". FEC.gov.
  6. ^ McCue, Dan (May 1, 2020). "Center for Politics Adds Alaska to Senate Battleground Map". TheWell News. Retrieved May 15, 2020.
  7. ^ a b c d e "Alaska Division of Elections". www.elections.alaska.gov. June 5, 2020. Retrieved June 2, 2020.
  8. ^ a b "President Trump endorses Sullivan re-election as US senator for Alaska". KTUU. December 18, 2019. Retrieved December 30, 2019.
  9. ^ "Mark Levin Audio Rewind - 10/20/20". Apple Podcasts. Retrieved November 1, 2020.
  10. ^ a b "Alaska Secretary of State's office: Election Summary Report - Official Results" (PDF).
  11. ^ Hertz, Nathaniel (April 4, 2018). "Independents can run in party primaries, Alaska Supreme Court says, opening door for Gov. Walker". Anchorage Daily News.
  12. ^ "Alaska - Senate". FEC. Retrieved May 17, 2020.
  13. ^ "John Wayne Howe, Alaskan Independence Party, runs for U.S. Senate". KTVF News. July 6, 2020.
  14. ^ a b "AK-Sen: Pete Buttigieg Jumps In To Help Dr. Al Gross (I) Take Away Moscow Mitch's Majority". Daily Kos.
  15. ^ a b c d "Humanity Forward Candidate Endorsements". Humanity Forward.
  16. ^ a b "Endorsed Candidates — 314actionfund". 314 Action. Retrieved November 27, 2019.
  17. ^ a b "Endorsed Candidates- 2019 Anchorage Municipal Elections".
  18. ^ a b Quinn, Steve (October 11, 2019). "Alaska Democratic Party backs Gross for US Senate". KTVA. Retrieved October 14, 2019.
  19. ^ a b "DSCC Endorses Dr. Al Gross in Alaska Senate Race". DSCC. December 3, 2019.
  20. ^ a b Muller, Tiffany (January 21, 2020). "End Citizens United Endorses 39 Candidates 10 Years After Citizens United Decision". End Citizens United.
  21. ^ a b J Street Endorsements https://donate.jstreetpac.org/candidate/al-gross-ak-sen/. Retrieved August 6, 2020. Missing or empty |title= (help)
  22. ^ a b "2020 Endorsements".
  23. ^ a b "AAOS Now October 2019: OrthoPAC Endorses AAOS Member Al Gross, MD, for U.S. Senate". www.aaos.org.
  24. ^ a b "2020 Endorsements". www.plannedparenthoodaction.org.
  25. ^ a b "Al Gross For The Great Land | The Lincoln Project". Al Gross For The Great Land | The Lincoln Project.
  26. ^ a b "Communications Workers of America Endorses Al Gross (AK) for US Senate". Communications Workers of America. June 11, 2020.
  27. ^ a b "ALASKA". Politics1. Retrieved May 17, 2020.
  28. ^ a b c "November 3, 2020 General Election Candidate List". www.elections.alaska.gov. October 29, 2020. Retrieved October 30, 2020.
  29. ^ Maguire, Sean (August 14, 2020). "Meet Alaska's candidates for the U.S. Senate ahead of the Aug. 18 primaries". KTUU. Retrieved August 21, 2020.
  30. ^ Downing, Suzanne (May 11, 2019). "Sen. Sullivan has his first challenger: a Bernie supporter". Must Read Alaska. Retrieved May 15, 2020.
  31. ^ "IDENTIFICATION NUMBER: C00705293" (PDF). FEC. May 29, 2019. Retrieved June 2, 2020.
  32. ^ "2020 Senate Race Ratings for April 19, 2019". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2019.
  33. ^ Silver, Nate (September 18, 2020). "Forecasting the race for the Senate". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved September 18, 2020.
  34. ^ "Why the Democrats are our narrow favourites to win the Senate". The Economist. September 23, 2020. Retrieved September 24, 2020.
  35. ^ "Daily Kos Elections releases initial Senate race ratings for 2020". Daily Kos Elections. Retrieved February 28, 2020.
  36. ^ "2020 Senate Elections Model". Decision Desk HQ. September 2, 2020. Retrieved September 2, 2020.
  37. ^ "2020 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved July 17, 2020.
  38. ^ "2020 Senate race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved August 28, 2019.
  39. ^ "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
  40. ^ "2020 Negative Partisanship and the 2020 Congressional Elections". Niskanen Center. April 28, 2020.
  41. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
  42. ^ "PAEC Issues First Endorsements in 2020 General Election". Calista Corporation.
  43. ^ "BSNC Endorses Dan Sullivan for United States Senate".
  44. ^ "U.S. Chamber Endorses Dan Sullivan for U.S. Senate Representing Alaska". U.S. Chamber of Commerce. July 20, 2020.
  45. ^ "Mark Levin Audio Rewind - 10/20/20". Apple Podcasts. Retrieved November 1, 2020.
  46. ^ "PRESS RELEASE: International Union of Operating Engineers Endorses Senator Dan Sullivan for Re-election - Dan Sullivan for Alaska". dansullivanforalaska.com.
  47. ^ Anchorage Daily News editorial board (October 31, 2020). "Sen. Dan Sullivan is best poised to represent Alaska's interests". Anchorage Daily News.
  48. ^ Buxton, Matt (August 12, 2020). "Before joining Democratic ticket, Kamala Harris endorsed Al Gross for U.S. Senate". The Midnight Sun.
  49. ^ https://dralgrosssenate.com
  50. ^ Knowles, Tony (October 19, 2020). "Dr. Al Gross: Independent for U.S. Senator". Mat-Su Valley Frontiersman.
  51. ^ https://duh4all.org/us-house-senate-candidates/us-congress-house-senate.html
  52. ^ "Our Endorsements". DMFI PAC.
  53. ^ "NRDC Action Fund Endorses 14 for House, Senate". nrdcactionfund.org. September 3, 2020.
  54. ^ "PACE Recommendations". NEA-Alaska.
  55. ^ "2020 GENERAL ELECTION Election Summary Report - Official Results" (PDF). Alaska Division of Elections. Retrieved December 2, 2020.

Further reading

External links

Official campaign websites
This page was last edited on 12 January 2021, at 02:25
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