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2020 United States House of Representatives elections in New Mexico

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

2020 United States House of Representatives elections in New Mexico

← 2018 November 3, 2020 2022 →

All 3 New Mexico seats to the United States House of Representatives
  Majority party Minority party
 
Party Democratic Republican
Last election 3 0
Seats won 2 1
Seat change Decrease 1 Increase 1
Popular vote 495,781 407,786
Percentage 54.86% 45.12%
Swing Decrease 3.39% Increase 6.92%

2020 U.S. House elections in New Mexico.svg
Results:
     Democratic hold
     Republican gain

The 2020 United States House of Representatives elections in New Mexico was held on November 3, 2020, to elect the three U.S. Representatives from the state of New Mexico, one from each of the state's three congressional districts. The elections coincided with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate and various state and local elections.

As a result of Herrell and Fernandez's wins, the election resulted in all three members of New Mexico's house delegation being women of color, the second US state (after Hawaii) to do so.[1] New Mexico is also remarkable for being the first state to have a majority of its house representatives be Native Americans.[a]

District 1

The 1st district is centered around Albuquerque, taking in most of Bernalillo County, Torrance County, and parts of Sandoval County, Santa Fe County and Valencia County. The incumbent is Democrat Deb Haaland, who was elected with 59.1% of the vote in 2018.[3]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Results

Democratic primary results[5]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Deb Haaland (incumbent) 83,032 100.0
Total votes 83,032 100.0

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee
Eliminated in primary
  • Brett Kokinadis, founder of New Mexico Democrats for Democracy[7]
  • Jared Vanderdussen, attorney[8]

Results

Republican primary results[5]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Michelle Garcia Holmes 23,783 48.1
Republican Jared Vanderdussen 19,847 40.2
Republican Brett Kokinadis 5,798 11.7
Total votes 49,428 100.0

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[9] Safe D July 2, 2020
Inside Elections[10] Safe D June 2, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[11] Safe D July 2, 2020
Politico[12] Safe D April 19, 2020
Daily Kos[13] Safe D June 3, 2020
RCP[14] Safe D June 9, 2020
Niskanen[15] Safe D June 7, 2020

Endorsements

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Deb
Haaland (D)
Michelle Garcia
Holmes (R)
Undecided
Research & Polling Inc. October 23–29, 2020 430 (LV) ±  4.7% 58% 37% 6%
Research & Polling Inc. August 26 – September 2, 2020 404 (LV) ±  4.9% 58% 31% 11%

Results

New Mexico's 1st congressional district, 2020[20]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Deb Haaland (incumbent) 186,953 58.2
Republican Michelle Garcia Holmes 134,337 41.8
Total votes 321,290 100.0
Democratic hold

District 2

2020 New Mexico's 2nd congressional district election

← 2018 November 3, 2020 2022 →

New Mexico's 2nd congressional district
 
Yvette Herrell official photo, 117th Congress.jpg
Xochitl Torres Small, official portrait, 116th Congress.jpg
Candidate Yvette Herrell Xochitl Torres Small
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 142,283 122,546
Percentage 53.7% 46.3%

U.S. Representative before election

Xochitl Torres Small
Democratic

Elected U.S. Representative

Yvette Herrell
Republican

The 2nd district covers southern New Mexico, including Las Cruces, Roswell, and the southern part of Albuquerque. The incumbent was Democrat Xochitl Torres Small, who flipped the district and was elected with 50.9% of the vote in 2018.[3]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Results

Democratic primary results[5]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Xochitl Torres Small (incumbent) 48,095 100.0
Total votes 48,095 100.0

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee
Eliminated in primary
Declined

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Claire
Chase
Gavin
Clarkson
Yvette
Herrell
Chris
Mathys
Undecided
The Tarrance Group (R)[A] December 2–3, 2019 450 (LV) ± 4.7% 13% 43% 12%
The Strategy Group Company (R)[A] January 23–27, 2019 537 (LV) 4% 7% 50% 2% 37%

Results

Republican primary results [5]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Yvette Herrell 26,968 44.7
Republican Claire Chase 19,017 31.5
Republican Chris Mathys 14,378 23.8
Total votes 60,363 100.0

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[9] Tossup July 2, 2020
Inside Elections[10] Tossup October 16, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[11] Lean D November 2, 2020
Politico[12] Tossup April 19, 2020
Daily Kos[13] Tossup June 3, 2020
RCP[14] Tossup June 9, 2020
Niskanen[15] Lean D June 7, 2020

Endorsements

Xochitl Torres Small (D)
Federal officials
Newspapers
Organizations
Yvette Herrell (R)
Executive Officials
Federal officials
Organizations
Individuals
Claire Chase (R)
Organizations

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Xochitl
Torres Small (D)
Yvette
Herrell (R)
Undecided
Research & Polling Inc. October 23–29, 2020 403 (LV) ±  4.9% 46% 48% 5%
Strategies 360 (D)[B] October 16–20, 2020 406 (LV) ±  4.9% 47% 46%
The Tarrance Group (R)[C] September 26–29, 2020 400 (LV) ±  4.9% 47% 48% 5%
Research & Polling Inc. August 26 – September 2, 2020 418 (LV) ±  4.8% 47% 45% 9%
The Tarrance Group (R)[C] July 7–9, 2020 400 (LV) ±  4.9% 46% 46% 8%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[D] December 18–19, 2019 400 (LV) ±  4.9% 46% 48%
The Strategy Group Company (R)[A] January 23–27, 2019 1,070 (LV) 38% 51% 11%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Generic
Democrat
Generic
Republican
Strategies 360/Xochitl Torres Small[B] October 16–20, 2020 406 (LV) ±  4.9% 45% 50%
The Tarrance Group (R)[C] September 26–29, 2020 400 (LV) ±  4.9% 45% 49%

Results

New Mexico's 2nd congressional district, 2020[20]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Yvette Herrell 142,283 53.7
Democratic Xochitl Torres Small (incumbent) 122,546 46.3
Independent Steve Jones (write-in) 117 0.0
Total votes 269,946 100.0
Republican gain from Democratic

District 3

The 3rd district encompasses all of northern New Mexico, including the city of Santa Fe, and includes most of the Navajo Nation and Puebloans within New Mexico. The incumbent was Democrat Ben Ray Luján, who was re-elected with 63.4% of the vote in 2018,[3] and announced on April 1, 2019 that he would seek the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate in 2020.[42] Luján won the primary, and ultimately the general election.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee
Eliminated in primary
Withdrawn
Declined

Endorsements

Valerie Plame
Organizations
Marco Serna
Statewide and local politicians

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Teresa
Fernandez
Valerie
Plame
Joseph
Sanchez
Marco
Serna
Other Undecided
Clarity Campaign Labs[E] May 20–21, 2020 661 (LV) ± 3.76% 33% 24% 7% 9% 9%[c]
Anzalone Liszt Grove Research[d] February 11–16, 2020 500 (LV) 11% 21% 7%

Pre-primary convention results

Candidates for the Democratic nomination needed to either receive the votes of 20% of the delegates at the pre-primary convention on March 7, or collect and submit signatures to the secretary of state to have made it to the June 2 primary.[74]

Candidate Delegates
Vote %
John Blair 19 4.5%
Teresa Leger Fernandez 178 41.9%
Laura Montoya 87 20.5%
Valerie Plame 22 5.2%
Joseph Sanchez 52 12.2%
Marco Serna 57 13.4%
Kyle Tisdel 10 2.4%
Total 425 100.0%

Results

Democratic primary results[5]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Teresa Leger Fernandez 44,480 42.8
Democratic Valerie Plame 25,775 24.8
Democratic Joseph L. Sanchez 12,292 11.8
Democratic Marco Serna 8,292 8.0
Democratic Laura M. Montoya 6,380 6.1
Democratic John Blair 4,533 4.4
Democratic Kyle Tisdel 2,176 2.1
Total votes 103,928 100.0

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee
  • Alexis Johnson, environmental engineer and rancher[75]
Eliminated in primary
Disqualified
  • Audra Lee Brown, businesswoman[49]
  • Anastacia Golden Morper, real estate agent[78][79]
Withdrawn
  • Brett Kokinadis, founder of New Mexico Democrats for Democracy[7]
Declined

Results

Republican primary results[5]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Alexis Johnson 16,512 36.7
Republican Harry Montoya 15,919 35.4
Republican Karen Bedonie 12,477 27.8
Republican Angela Gale Morales (Write-in) 30 0.1
Total votes 44,938 100.0

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Nominee

Green primary

Candidates

Declined

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[9] Safe D July 2, 2020
Inside Elections[10] Safe D June 2, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[11] Safe D July 2, 2020
Politico[12] Safe D April 19, 2020
Daily Kos[13] Safe D June 3, 2020
RCP[14] Safe D June 9, 2020
Niskanen[15] Safe D June 7, 2020

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Teresa Leger
Fernandez (D)
Alexis
Johnson (R)
Undecided
Research & Polling Inc. October 23–29, 2020 347 (LV) ±  5.3% 58% 35% 6%
Research & Polling Inc. August 26 – September 2, 2020 301 (LV) ±  5.6% 50% 35% 15%

Results

New Mexico's 3rd congressional district, 2020[20]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Teresa Leger Fernandez 186,282 58.7
Republican Alexis Johnson 131,166 41.3
Total votes 317,448 100.0
Democratic hold

See also

Notes

  1. ^ Two of the three representatives elected from New Mexico are of Native American ancestry, Yvette Herrell is Cherokee, and Deb Haaland is a member of the Laguna Pueblo.[2]
  2. ^ a b c d e f Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^ John Blair 4%, Laura Montoya 3%, Kyle Tiesel 2%
  4. ^ Poll was sponsored by Plame's campaign
Partisan clients
  1. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by the Yvette Herrell campaign
  2. ^ a b Poll sponsored by Small's campaign
  3. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by the NRCC.
  4. ^ Poll sponsored by the Congressional Leadership Fund, which supports Republican candidates for Congress.
  5. ^ This poll's sponsor had endorsed Teresa Legar Fernandez prior to the sampling period

References

  1. ^ Williams, Jordan (November 4, 2020). "New Mexico elects all women of color to House delegation for first time". The Hill. Retrieved November 6, 2020.
  2. ^ Aratani, Lauren (November 4, 2020). "Record number of Native American women elected to Congress". The Guardian. Retrieved November 6, 2020.
  3. ^ a b c Wasserman, David; Flinn, Ally (November 7, 2018). "2018 House Popular Vote Tracker". Cook Political Report. Retrieved February 15, 2019.
  4. ^ "Congresswoman Haaland says she will not run for US Senate". The Washington Times. Associated Press. April 10, 2019. Retrieved June 25, 2019.
  5. ^ a b c d e f Toulouse Oliver, Maggie. "New Mexico Election Results | OFFICIAL RESULTS Primary Election - June 2, 2020". electionresults.sos.state.nm.us. New Mexico Secretary of State. Retrieved June 2, 2020.
  6. ^ Turner, Scott (October 25, 2019). "Garcia Holmes enters U.S. House race". Albuquerque Journal.
  7. ^ a b Reichbach, Matthew (July 20, 2019). "Kokinadis switches races, running for Congress in CD1 instead of CD3". New Mexico Political Report. Retrieved July 20, 2019.
  8. ^ Turner, Scott (November 19, 2019). "UNM law school grad enters U.S. House race". Albuquerque Journal.
  9. ^ a b c "2020 Senate Race Ratings for April 19, 2019". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2019.
  10. ^ a b c "2020 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 3, 2019.
  11. ^ a b c "2020 Senate race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved August 28, 2019.
  12. ^ a b c "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
  13. ^ a b c "Daily Kos Elections releases initial Senate race ratings for 2020". Daily Kos Elections. Retrieved February 28, 2020.
  14. ^ a b c "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
  15. ^ a b c "2020 Negative Partisanship and the 2020 Congressional Elections". Niskanen Center. April 28, 2020.
  16. ^ a b https://centeractionfund.org/2020-endorsements/#NM
  17. ^ Palmer, Kenny (June 14, 2020). "INDIVISIBLE ANNOUNCES NEXT WAVE OF CONGRESSIONAL ENDORSEMENTS". Retrieved June 14, 2020.
  18. ^ Sittenfeld, Tiernan (August 15, 2019). "LCV Action Fund Announces Second Round of 2020 Environmental Majority Makers". League of Conservation Voters. LCV Action Fund.
  19. ^ a b c "Sierra Club #ClimateVoter Guide: Endorsements". Sierra Club.
  20. ^ a b c "Official Results - 2020 General November 3, 2020". New Mexico Secretary of State. Retrieved November 24, 2020.
  21. ^ "Republican Herrell to run against Torres Small in 2020". KOB. Associated Press. January 8, 2019. Retrieved February 15, 2019.
  22. ^ Contreras, Russell (August 27, 2019). "GOP oil executive to seek southern New Mexico US House seat". Associated Press. Retrieved August 27, 2019.
  23. ^ Contreras, Russell (April 10, 2019). "Las Cruces businessman hopes to unseat congresswoman in 2020". Associated Press. Retrieved April 10, 2019.
  24. ^ "Here Comes Claire And Yvette Isn't Yawning; Chase About To Enter Southern Congress Race Setting Up Major GOP Battle For Nomination, Plus: Oil Boom; Where's The Plan?". New Mexico Politics with Joe Monahan. August 19, 2019. Retrieved August 19, 2019.
  25. ^ Monahan, Joe (December 17, 2018). "GOP Insiders Say Herrell Set To Make Second Run For 2nd Congressional District, And: Big Bill's Spaceport Suddenly Not Looking So Bad". New Mexico Politics with Joe Monahan. Retrieved February 15, 2019.
  26. ^ Boyd, Dan (December 8, 2018). "Steve Pearce elected NM Republican Party chair". Albuquerque Journal. Retrieved February 15, 2019.
  27. ^ "The Win Big Project". The Win Big Project.
  28. ^ https://www.abqjournal.com/1508534/journal-endorses-candidates-for-nms-congressional-delegation.html. Missing or empty |title= (help)
  29. ^ "U.S. House Candidates". EMILY's List.
  30. ^ "End Citizen's United: Xochitl Torres Small". End Citizens United.
  31. ^ Sittenfeld, Tiernan (June 5, 2019). "LCV Action Fund Announces First Round of 2020 Environmental Majority Makers". League of Conservation Voters. LCV Action Fund.
  32. ^ Hogue, Ilyse (March 8, 2019). "NARAL Announces First Slate of Frontline Pro-Choice Endorsements for 2020". NARAL Pro-Choice America.
  33. ^ https://apnews.com/article/border-security-new-mexico-archive-house-elections-donald-trump-2f4dba6197eba8b8f7cef9ef78cd37bb
  34. ^ https://www.facebook.com/HerrellForCongress/videos/ted-cruz-supports-yvette-herrell/967291077036213/
  35. ^ a b c d e f g "ENDORSEMENTS | Yvette Herrell". Yvetteherrell.
  36. ^ "Oil Lobbyist Seeks GOP Nomination for New Mexico U.S. House Seat". InsideSources. September 10, 2019.
  37. ^ "Yvette Herrell". Susan B. Anthony List. Retrieved February 27, 2020.
  38. ^ "Mark Levin Highlights Yvette Herrell". Facebook. Retrieved September 1, 2020.
  39. ^ "Herrell picked up endorsement ex-Democratic congressman". The Cortez Journal. August 4, 2020. Retrieved October 7, 2020.
  40. ^ "Republican Main Street Partnership PAC Endorses Claire Chase (NM-02) for Congress". Republican Mainstreet Partnership PAC. May 4, 2020.
  41. ^ Manchester, Julia (May 28, 2020). "GOP women's group rolls out endorsements ahead of contested races". TheHill.
  42. ^ a b "Rep. Ben Ray Lujan will run for U.S. Senate". KOAT. Associated Press. April 1, 2019. Retrieved April 1, 2019.
  43. ^ Bennett, Megan (May 17, 2019). "Santa Fe lawyer kicks off campaign for Congress". Albuquerque Journal. Retrieved May 17, 2019.
  44. ^ Lee, Morgan (August 19, 2019). "Former elections regulator joins field for House seat". Associated Press. Retrieved August 20, 2019.
  45. ^ Oswald, Mark (July 2, 2019). "Sandoval Treasurer Laura Montoya enters 3rd CD race". Albuquerque Journal. Retrieved July 3, 2019.
  46. ^ Wilson, Reid (May 9, 2019). "Valerie Plame to run for Congress in New Mexico". The Hill. Retrieved May 9, 2019.
  47. ^ Sanchez, Joseph [@josephsancheznm] (April 1, 2019). "I wanted you all to be the first to know. I am excited to announce I am running for Congress in New Mexico's 3rd Congressional District! Follow our social media for more information in the coming days. #nmpol" (Tweet). Retrieved April 1, 2019 – via Twitter.
  48. ^ Carrillo, Edmundo (May 30, 2019). "Serna makes formal announcement he's in 3rd CD race". Albuquerque Journal. Retrieved May 31, 2019.
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  80. ^ Oxford, Andrew (April 1, 2019). "Seat Luján is vacating already drawing interest". Santa Fe New Mexican. Retrieved April 2, 2019.

External links

Official campaign websites for 1st district candidates
Official campaign websites for 2nd district candidates
Official campaign websites for 3rd district candidates
This page was last edited on 5 February 2021, at 12:38
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