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2020 United States House of Representatives election in Montana

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

2020 United States House of Representatives election in Montana, at-large district

← 2018 November 3, 2020 2022 →
 
Matt Rosendale 117th U.S Congress.jpg
3x4.svg
Nominee Matt Rosendale Kathleen Williams
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 339,169 262,340
Percentage 56.4% 43.6%

Montana's at-large congressional district election, 2020 results by county.svg
County results
Rosendale:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Williams:      50–60%      60–70%

U.S. Representative before election

Greg Gianforte
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

Matt Rosendale
Republican

The 2020 United States House of Representatives election in Montana was held on November 3, 2020, to elect the U.S. Representative from Montana's at-large congressional district. The election coincided with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate and various state and local elections.

The incumbent, Republican Greg Gianforte, who was reelected with 50.9% of the vote in 2018,[1] declined to run for reelection and instead ran successfully for Governor of Montana, after having lost the 2016 election to incumbent Democrat Steve Bullock.[2]

As the Green Party was removed from the ballot, this was the first time since 1988 that there were no non-Republican or Democratic candidates running for either United States House of Representatives or United States Senate in Montana.[3]

In the general election, Republican State Auditor Matt Rosendale defeated former state representative Kathleen Williams,

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Declined

Endorsements

Matt Rosendale
Executive Officials
Individuals
Organizations

Polling

Polls with a sample size of <100 have their sample size entries marked in red to indicate a lack of reliability.

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Russell
Fagg
Joe
Dooling
Timothy
Johnson
Al
Olszewski
Denny
Rehberg
Matt
Rosendale
Corey
Stapleton
Undecided
Montana State University Billings October 7–16, 2019 99 (LV) 1% <1% 32% 22% 44%
WPA Intelligence (R)[A] February 24–26, 2019 501 (V) ± 4.4% 24% 57% 15%
39% 46% 13%
18% 10% 51% 18%
15% 31% 37% 16%
17% 48% 19% 16%

Results

Republican primary results[16]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Matt Rosendale 104,575 48.31%
Republican Corey Stapleton 71,902 33.21%
Republican Debra Lamm 14,462 6.68%
Republican Joe Dooling 13,726 6.34%
Republican Mark McGinley 7,818 3.61%
Republican John Evankovich 3,983 1.84%
Total votes 216,466 100.0%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrew

  • Matt Rains, rancher and army veteran (endorsed Williams)[19]

Declined

Endorsements

Kathleen Williams
State politicians
Local politicians
  • Mike Kadas, former mayor of Missoula (1996-2006)
Individuals
  • Matt Rains, rancher and army veteran and former 2020 candidate for U.S. House of Representatives from Montana's at-large district[21]
Local unions
Organizations
Tom Winter
Individuals
Organizations

Polling

Polls with a sample size of <100 have their sample size entries marked in red to indicate a lack of reliability.

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Matt
Rains
Kathleen
Williams
Undecided
Montana State University Billings October 7–16, 2019 40 (LV) 6% 69% 25%

Results

Democratic primary results[16]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Kathleen Williams 133,436 89.47%
Democratic Tom Winter 15,698 10.53%
Total votes 149,134 100.0%

Other candidates

Green Party

Disqualified

  • John Gibney, anti-immigration activist[33][34]

Results

Green primary results[16]
Party Candidate Votes %
Green John Gibney 690 100.0%
Total votes 690 100.0%

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[35] Lean R October 2, 2020
Inside Elections[36] Lean R October 1, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[37] Lean R October 1, 2020
Politico[38] Lean R September 9, 2020
Daily Kos[39] Lean R September 25, 2020
RCP[40] Tossup October 26, 2020
Niskanen[41] Lean R July 26, 2020
The Economist[42] Tossup October 2, 2020

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Matt
Rosendale (R)
Kathleen
Williams (D)
Other /
Undecided
Montana State University Billings October 19–24, 2020 546 (LV) ± 4.2% 47% 46% 6%[b]
Siena College/NYT Upshot October 18–20, 2020 758 (LV) ± 4.4% 50% 46% 4%[c]
Strategies 360 October 15–20, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 46% 46% 9%[d]
RMG Research/PoliticalIQ October 15–18, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 47%[e] 47% 6%[f]
45%[g] 49% 6%[h]
49%[i] 45% 6%[j]
Montana State University Bozeman September 14 – October 2, 2020 1,609 (LV) ± 3.9% 48% 46% 6%[k]
Siena College/NYT Upshot September 14–16, 2020 625 (LV) ± 4.8% 41% 44% 13%[l]
Expedition Strategies (D)[B] August 22–27, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 48% 51% 1%[m]
WPA Intelligence (R)[A] August 9–11, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 51% 45% 4%[n]
Civiqs/Daily Kos July 11–13, 2020 873 (RV) ± 4.2% 49% 47% 5%[o]
Public Policy Polling July 9–10, 2020 1,224 (V) ± 2.8% 44% 44% 13%[p]
Global Strategy Group (D)[C] June 24–28, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 47% 47% 6%
University of Montana June 17–26, 2020 517 (RV) ± 4.3% 45% 37% 18%[q]
Public Policy Polling[D] March 12–13, 2020 903 (V) ± 3.3% 45% 45% 9%
Hypothetical polls with former candidates

University of Montana polls did not account for certain presumed withdrawals of major party candidates after their primaries in the following polls.

with Joe Dooling (R), John Evankovich (R), Timothy Johnson (R), Corey Stapleton (R) and Tom Winter (D)
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Matt
Rosendale (R)
Corey
Stapleton (R)
Kathleen
Williams (D)
Other
University of Montana February 12–22, 2020 498 (LV) ± 4.4% 35.7% 19.4% 35.8% 9.1%[r]
with Joe Dooling (R), Timothy Johnson (R), Matt Rains (D), Corey Stapleton (R) and Tom Winter (D)
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Matt
Rosendale (R)
Corey
Stapleton (R)
Kathleen
Williams (D)
Other
University of Montana September 26 – October 3, 2019 303 (RV) ± 5.6% 35.3% 19.8% 36.1% 8.8%[s]

Results

Montana's at-large congressional district, 2020[43]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Matt Rosendale 339,169 56.39% +5.51%
Democratic Kathleen Williams 262,340 43.61% -2.64%
Total votes 601,509 100.00%
Republican hold

Notes

  1. ^ a b c d e Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ Undecided with 6%
  3. ^ Would not vote with 1%; "Someone else" with 0%; Undecided with 3%
  4. ^ Undecided with 9%
  5. ^ Standard VI response
  6. ^ "Someone else" with 2%; Undecided with 4%
  7. ^ Results generated with high Democratic turnout model
  8. ^ "Someone else" with 2%; Undecided with 4%
  9. ^ Results generated with high Republican turnout model
  10. ^ "Someone else" with 2%; Undecided with 4%
  11. ^ "Other" with 1%; Undecided with 5%
  12. ^ Gibney (G) with 2%; would not vote with 1%; "someone else" with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 10%
  13. ^ Undecided with 1%
  14. ^ Undecided with 4%
  15. ^ Undecided with 3%; "Someone else" with 2%
  16. ^ Undecided with 13%
  17. ^ Undecided with 18.4%
  18. ^ Dooling (R) with 2.9%; Winter (D) with 2.7%; Johnson (R) with 1.8%; Evankovich (R) with 1.7%
  19. ^ Dooling (R) with 2.5%; Rains (D) with 2.4%; Winter (D) with 2.1%; Johnson (R) with 1.8%
Partisan clients
  1. ^ a b Poll sponsored by Club for Growth Action
  2. ^ Poll conducted for The House Majority PAC, which endorsed Williams prior to this poll's sampling period.
  3. ^ Poll sponsored by Kathleen Williams' campaign
  4. ^ Poll sponsored by End Citizens United, which has exclusively endorsed Democratic candidates

References

  1. ^ Wasserman, David; Flinn, Ally (November 7, 2018). "2018 House Popular Vote Tracker". Cook Political Report. Retrieved February 28, 2019.
  2. ^ a b Michels, Holly K. (June 6, 2019). "Gianforte files to run for governor in 2020". Independent Record. Retrieved June 7, 2019.
  3. ^ "No Alternative Candidates on Montana Ballot for Any Congressional Race". Ballot Access News. September 13, 2020. Archived from the original on September 13, 2020.
  4. ^ Pathé, Simone (June 17, 2019). "On heels of Senate loss, Matt Rosendale running for Congress — again". Roll Call. Retrieved June 17, 2019.
  5. ^ Alexander, Cassidy (June 25, 2019). "Helena Rancher Joins Race For Montana's House Seat". MTPR. Retrieved June 26, 2019.
  6. ^ a b Dennison, Mike (March 2, 2020). "Dillon veteran a surprise candidate in U.S. House race". KTVH.
  7. ^ Drake, Phil. "Lamm enters 2020 race for U.S. House seat". Great Falls Tribune. Retrieved September 9, 2019.
  8. ^ Drake, Phil (June 15, 2019). "Stapleton announces run for U.S. House seat". Great Falls Tribune. Retrieved June 15, 2019.
  9. ^ Dennison, Mike (March 20, 2019). "Montana 2020: Gianforte gubernatorial run would have 'domino effect' on statewide races". KRTV. Retrieved March 21, 2019.
  10. ^ Pogreba, Don (January 9, 2019). "2020 Updates: Daines Tells Tim Fox to Shove Off, He's Supporting Gianforte for Governor. And Denny Rehberg is Eyeing a Comeback!". The Montana Post. Retrieved February 28, 2019.
  11. ^ https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1227705242579501057
  12. ^ Trump, Donald Jr. "Montana's A-Team: Daines, Rosendale, Gianforte". missoulian.com. Retrieved December 22, 2019.
  13. ^ "Mark Levin Audio Rewind - 10/12/20". Apple Podcasts. Retrieved October 12, 2020.
  14. ^ "Matt Rosendale (MT-AL)". Club for Growth. Retrieved February 29, 2020.
  15. ^ "Crow Tribal Chairman endorses Trump campaign". Indian Country Today. Retrieved September 29, 2020.
  16. ^ a b c "2020 STATEWIDE PRIMARY ELECTION CANVASS" (PDF). Montana Secretary of State. Retrieved June 2, 2020.
  17. ^ "Williams launches new bid for Montana US House seat". KECI. Associated Press. April 5, 2019. Retrieved April 5, 2019.
  18. ^ Michels, Holly K. (April 2, 2019). "Missoula state Rep. Tom Winter announces bid for U.S. House". Helena Independent Record. Retrieved April 2, 2019.
  19. ^ Drake, Phil (January 21, 2020). "Rains drops from U.S. House race, seeks state seat, endorses Kathleen Williams". Great Falls Tribune. Retrieved January 21, 2020.
  20. ^ Hanson, Amy Beth (May 13, 2019). "Mayor who was refugee from Liberia announces run for Senate". Associated Press. Retrieved May 13, 2019.
  21. ^ Drake, Phil (January 21, 2020). "Rains drops from U.S. House race, seeks state seat, endorses Kathleen Williams". Great Falls Tribune. Retrieved January 21, 2020.
  22. ^ "Thank you, @AFSCME Montana Council 9!". Twitter. April 21, 2020. Retrieved April 9, 2020.
  23. ^ "Teamsters Local 190 Endorse Kathleen Williams for U.S. Congress". MT People's Voice. April 21, 2020. Retrieved April 8, 2020.
  24. ^ "MFPE Endorses Kathleen Williams For Congress". MFPE. April 21, 2020. Retrieved April 7, 2020.
  25. ^ Dems, New (July 31, 2020). "ENDORSEMENT ALERT: A year ago, we launched our Frontier program to back bold, pragmatic Democrats who can flip even more seats blue. #NewDems have played a key part in expanding the House battlefield & now we're doubling down & supporting 10 more amazing candidates".
  26. ^ Marianne Williamson [@marwilliamson] (May 17, 2020). "If we want a more visionary government we need to support more visionary candidates. And the time to do it is now....secure.actblue.com/donate/marianneendorses" (Tweet). Retrieved May 17, 2020 – via Twitter.
  27. ^ "Getting Shit Done For the People". Blue America. Retrieved April 8, 2020.
  28. ^ "2020 Endorsed House Candidates". DUH! Demand Universal Healthcare. Retrieved March 19, 2020.
  29. ^ MT Progressive Dems (May 17, 2020). "Montana Progressive Democrats are proud to endorse @WinterForMT for U.S. Representative". Retrieved May 21, 2020 – via Twitter.
  30. ^ Our Revolution (April 30, 2020). "We are so proud to endorse #ProgressiveChampion Tom Winter as he will fight for a #GreenNewDeal and better rights for working people. #PoliticalRevolution". Retrieved May 21, 2020 – via Facebook.
  31. ^ "Endorsements". Progressive Rising. Retrieved April 6, 2020.
  32. ^ "We are endorsing Tom Winter for Congress because he is a Green New Deal champion". April 30, 2020. Retrieved May 1, 2020 – via Instagram.
  33. ^ Michels, Holly (March 9, 2020). "Filing deadline for Montana ballot sees last-minute surprises". Helena Independent Record.
  34. ^ Michels, Holly (August 7, 2020). "Helena judge again takes Green Party off the ballot". Helena Independent Record. Retrieved August 7, 2020.
  35. ^ "2020 Senate Race Ratings for April 19, 2019". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2019.
  36. ^ "2020 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 3, 2019.
  37. ^ "2020 Senate race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved August 28, 2019.
  38. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
  39. ^ "Daily Kos Elections releases initial Senate race ratings for 2020". Daily Kos Elections. Retrieved February 28, 2020.
  40. ^ "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
  41. ^ "2020 Negative Partisanship and the 2020 Congressional Elections". Niskanen Center. April 28, 2020.
  42. ^ "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. October 2, 2020. Retrieved October 2, 2020.
  43. ^ "Montana Federal Election Results". Montana Secretary of State. November 3, 2020. Retrieved November 18, 2020.

External links

Official campaign websites
This page was last edited on 12 January 2021, at 08:50
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