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2019 Valencian regional election

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

2019 Valencian regional election
← 2015 28 April 2019 2023 →
All 99 seats in the Corts Valencianes
50 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered3,659,514
1.4%
Turnout2,697,934 (73.7%)
4.1 pp
  First party Second party Third party
 
Leader Ximo Puig Isabel Bonig Toni Cantó
Party PSPV–PSOE PP Cs
Leader since 31 March 2012 28 July 2015 2 March 2019
Leader's seat Castellón Valencia Valencia
Last election 23 seats, 20.6% 31 seats, 26.6% 13 seats, 12.5%
Seats won 27 19 18
Seat change
4
12
5
Popular vote 643,909 508,534 470,676
Percentage 24.2% 19.1% 17.7%
Swing
3.6 pp
7.5 pp
5.2 pp
  Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party
 
Leader Mónica Oltra José María Llanos Rubén Martínez Dalmau
Party Compromís Vox Unides Podem–EUPV
Leader since 31 January 2015 26 March 2019 27 November 2018
Leader's seat Valencia Valencia Alicante
Last election 19 seats, 18.5% 0 seats, 0.4% 13 seats, 15.7%[a]
Seats won 17 10 8
Seat change
2
10
5
Popular vote 443,640 281,608 215,392
Percentage 16.7% 10.6% 8.1%
Swing
1.8 pp
10.2 pp
7.6 pp
Constituency results map for the Corts Valencianes
President before election

Ximo Puig
PSPV–PSOE

Elected President

Ximo Puig
PSPV–PSOE

The 2019 Valencian regional election was held on Sunday, 28 April 2019, to elect the 10th Corts of the Valencian Community. All 99 seats in the Corts were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with the April 2019 Spanish general election. This was the first early regional election ever held in the Valencian Community, as well as the first Valencian election to not be held concurrently with other regional elections.[1][2][3]

The Socialist Party of the Valencian Country (PSPV) and Coalició Compromís formed a minority coalition government in 2015, relying on confidence and supply support from Podemos, an arrangement which was dubbed the "Botànic Agreement" and forced the governing People's Party (PP) into opposition after dominating Valencian politics during the previous 20 years. The political landscape experienced some changes during the next four years, with the PP losing support to the emerging liberal Citizens (Cs) party and the right-wing populist Vox, while on the left, United Left of the Valencian Country (EUPV) formed an electoral alliance with Podemos called Unides Podem.

The election resulted in a reduced majority for the left-wing parties. The PSPV emerged as the largest party for the first time since 1991, whereas the PP suffered the worst result in its history. Cs and Vox benefited from the PP's losses, the latter entering the Corts for the first time. Compromís and Unides Podem had disappointing finishes, losing seats and ending up in fourth and sixth place, respectively. These results led to a continuation of the 2015 Botànic Agreement, though this time Podemos and EUPV joined the government as full coalition partners.

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Transcription

Overview

Electoral system

The Corts Valencianes were the devolved, unicameral legislature of the Valencian autonomous community, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Valencian Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.[4] Voting for the Corts was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in the Valencian Community and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Additionally, Valencians abroad were required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote (Spanish: Voto rogado).[5]

The 99 members of the Corts Valencianes were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with a threshold of five percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied regionally. Seats were allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Alicante, Castellón and Valencia, with each being allocated an initial minimum of 20 seats and the remaining 39 being distributed in proportion to their populations (provided that the seat-to-population ratio in any given province did not exceed three times that of any other).[4][6]

As a result of the aforementioned allocation, each Corts constituency was entitled the following seats:[7]

Seats Constituencies
40 Valencia
35 Alicante
24 Castellón

Election date

The term of the Corts Valencianes expired four years after the date of their previous election, unless they were dissolved earlier. The election decree was required to be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the date of expiry of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Journal of the Valencian Government (DOGV), with election day taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication. The previous election was held on 24 May 2015, which meant that the legislature's term would have expired on 24 May 2019. The election decree was required to be published in the DOGV no later than 30 April 2019, with the election taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication, setting the latest possible election date for the Corts on Sunday, 23 June 2019.[4][6][8]

The president had the prerogative to dissolve the Corts Valencianes and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Corts were to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.[4]

The Corts Valencianes were officially dissolved on 5 March 2019 after the publication of the dissolution decree in the DOGV, setting the election date for 28 April and scheduling for the chamber to convene on 16 May.[7]

Background

The 2015 regional election had resulted in the People's Party's (PP) expulsion from the regional government after a 20-year uninterrupted rule. Amid a string of corruption scandals that kept shocking the party and brought down many of its historical figureheads apparently involved in the scandals, the regional PP found itself leaderless and in a precarious situation.

'Operation Taula', a major police operation in Valencia that took place on 26 January 2016, resulted in the arrest of several former and current high-ranking members from the regional PP branch, as a consequence of the ongoing investigation on the PP's corruption in the region during its time in government.[9][10] Judicial investigation also pointed to former long-time Mayor of Valencia Rita Barberá as a participant in the scandal; her arrest or imputation only being prevented by the fact she had legal protection as an incumbent senator.[11] A few days later, on 1 February, all PP city councillors in the city of Valencia were charged for a possible money laundering offense, including new local party leader Alfonso Novo, as well as most members of Barberá's late government.[12]

Parliamentary composition

The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the Corts at the time of dissolution.[13]

Parliamentary composition in March 2019
Groups Parties Legislators
Seats Total
People's Parliamentary Group PP 30 30
Socialist Parliamentary Group PSPV–PSOE 23 23
Commitment Parliamentary Group Compromís 19 19
We Can Parliamentary Group Podemos 12 12
Citizens Parliamentary Group Cs 9 9
Non-Inscrits Agermanats 4[b] 6
INDEP 2[c]

Parties and candidates

The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.[6][8]

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which contested the election:

Candidacy Parties and
alliances 		Leading candidate Ideology Previous result Gov. Ref.
Votes (%) Seats
PP
List
Isabel Bonig Conservatism
Christian democracy 		26.61% 31 ☒N [17]
PSPV–PSOE
List
Ximo Puig Social democracy 20.57% 23 checkY [18]
Compromís
List
Mónica Oltra Valencian nationalism
Eco-socialism
Green politics 		18.46% 19 checkY [19]
Unides
Podem–EUPV
List
Rubén Martínez Dalmau Left-wing populism
Direct democracy
Democratic socialism 		15.73%[a] 13 ☒N [20]
[21]
Cs
List
Toni Cantó Liberalism 12.49% 13 ☒N [22]
Vox
List
José María Llanos Right-wing populism
Ultranationalism
National conservatism 		0.4% 0 ☒N [23]

Campaign

Party slogans

Party or alliance Original slogan English translation Ref.
PP « Correctamente política » "Politics correctly" [24][25]
PSPV–PSOE « Seguir sumando »
« Seguir sumant » 		"Keep adding" [24][26]
Compromís « Imparables » "Unstoppable" [24][27]
Cs « ¡Vamos Ciudadanos! » "Let's go Citizens!" [24]
Unides Podem–EUPV « La historia la escribes tú » "History is written by you" [24]
Vox « Valencia por España » "Valencia for Spain" [28]

Election debates

2019 Valencian regional election debates
Date Organisers Moderator(s)     P  Present[d]    S  Surrogate[e]    NI  Not invited   A  Absent invitee 
PP PSPV Compr. Cs UPodemos Vox Audience Ref.
12 April Cadena SER Bernardo Guzmán P
Bonig 		P
Puig 		P
Oltra 		P
Cantó 		P
Dalmau 		NI — [29]
17 April RTVE Inma Canet P
Bonig 		P
Puig 		P
Oltra 		P
Cantó 		P
Dalmau 		NI 11.5%
(213,000) 		[30]
[31]
25 April À Punt Jessica Crespo P
Bonig 		P
Puig 		P
Oltra 		P
Cantó 		P
Dalmau 		NI 4.1%
(75,000) 		[32]
[33]

Opinion polls

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Voting intention estimates

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 50 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Corts Valencianes.

Color key:

  Poll conducted after legal ban on opinion polls

Voting preferences

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Victory preferences

The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a general election taking place.

Victory likelihood

The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Preferred President

The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Valencian Government.

Results

Overall

← Summary of the 28 April 2019 Corts Valencianes election results →
Parties and alliances Popular vote Seats
Votes % ±pp Total +/−
Socialist Party of the Valencian Country (PSPV–PSOE) 643,909 24.21 +3.64 27 +4
People's Party (PP) 508,534 19.12 –7.49 19 –12
Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (Cs) 470,676 17.70 +5.21 18 +5
Commitment: Bloc–Initiative–Greens Equo (Compromís) 443,640 16.68 –1.78 17 –2
Vox (Vox) 281,608 10.59 +10.17 10 +10
United We Can–United Left (Unides Podem–EUPV)1 215,392 8.10 –7.63 8 –5
Animalist Party Against Mistreatment of Animals (PACMA) 38,447 1.45 +0.65 0 ±0
Forward–The Eco-pacifist Greens (Avant/Adelante–LVEP) 8,604 0.32 +0.27 0 ±0
We Are Valencian in Movement (UiG–Som–CUIDES) 7,102 0.27 –0.01 0 ±0
Republican Left of the Valencian Country (ERPV) 5,069 0.19 New 0 ±0
Communist Party of the Peoples of Spain (PCPE) 4,509 0.17 +0.05 0 ±0
Democratic People (Poble) 2,931 0.11 +0.02 0 ±0
Valencian Republic–European Valencianist Party (RV–PVE) 2,108 0.08 New 0 ±0
Seniors in Action (3e en acción) 1,869 0.07 New 0 ±0
Spanish Phalanx of the CNSO (FE–JONS) 1,307 0.05 –0.09 0 ±0
Act (PACT) 1,230 0.05 New 0 ±0
At Once Valencian Community (aUna CV) 981 0.04 New 0 ±0
Republican Alternative (ALTER) 620 0.02 New 0 ±0
Blank ballots 20,221 0.76 –0.62
Total 2,659,709 99 ±0
Valid votes 2,659,709 98.58 –0.02
Invalid votes 38,225 1.42 +0.02
Votes cast / turnout 2,697,934 73.72 +4.16
Abstentions 961,580 26.28 –4.16
Registered voters 3,659,514
Sources[13][34][35]
Footnotes:
Popular vote
PSPV–PSOE
 
 24.21%
PP
 
 19.12%
Cs
 
 17.70%
Compromís
 
 16.68%
Vox
 
 10.59%
U. Podem–EUPV
 
 8.10%
PACMA
 
 1.45%
Others
 
 1.40%
Blank ballots
 
 0.76%
Seats
PSPV–PSOE
 
 27.27%
PP
 
 19.19%
Cs
 
 18.18%
Compromís
 
 17.17%
Vox
 
 10.10%
U. Podem–EUPV
 
 8.08%

Distribution by constituency

Constituency PSPV PP Cs Compr. Vox UP–EUPV
% S % S % S % S % S % S
Alicante 25.6 10 20.1 7 19.1 7 11.0 4 11.3 4 9.3 3
Castellón 27.6 7 21.5 5 15.1 4 14.4 4 10.5 2 7.8 2
Valencia 22.6 10 18.0 7 17.3 7 20.7 9 10.2 4 7.4 3
Total 24.2 27 19.1 19 17.7 18 16.7 17 10.6 10 8.1 8
Sources[13][35]

Aftermath

Further information: Second government of Ximo Puig
Investiture
Ximo Puig (PSPV)
Ballot → 13 June 2019
Required majority → 50 out of 99 checkY
Yes
52 / 99
No
  • • PP (19)
  • • Cs (17)
  • • Vox (10)
46 / 99
Abstentions
0 / 99
Absentees
  • • Cs (1)
1 / 99
Sources[13][36]

Notes

  1. ^ a b Results for Podemos (11.41%, 13 seats) and EUPV–EV–ERPV–AS (4.32%, 0 seats) in the 2015 election.
  2. ^ Alexis Marí, David de Miguel, Alberto García Salvador and Roberto Rojo, former Cs legislators.[14]
  3. ^ Miquel Domínguez, former PP legislator;[15] Covadonga Peremarch, former Podemos legislator.[16]
  4. ^ Denotes a main invitee attending the event.
  5. ^ Denotes a main invitee not attending the event, sending a surrogate in their place.
  6. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z aa ab ac ad ae af ag ah ai aj ak al am an ao ap aq ar as at au av aw ax ay az ba bb bc bd be bf bg bh bi bj bk bl bm bn bo bp bq br bs bt bu bv bw bx Within Unides Podem–EUPV.
  7. ^ a b c d e f Within Compromís–Podemos–EUPV.
  8. ^ a b c d Within Compromís–Podemos.

References

Opinion poll sources
  1. ^ "Sondeo: la izquierda mantendría el Gobierno valenciano con Puig como candidato más votado". Valencia Plaza (in Spanish). 28 April 2019.
  2. ^ "Sondeo COPE: La izquierda sale reforzada en las autonómicas valencianas". COPE (in Spanish). 28 April 2019.
  3. ^ "ElectoPaella (26A)". Electomanía (in Spanish). 26 April 2019.
  4. ^ "ElectoPaella (25A)". Electomanía (in Spanish). 25 April 2019.
  5. ^ "ElectoPaella (24A)". Electomanía (in Spanish). 24 April 2019.
  6. ^ "EmojiPaella (23A)". Electomanía (in Spanish). 23 April 2019.
  7. ^ "ElectoPaella (22A)". Electomanía (in Spanish). 22 April 2019.
  8. ^ "El PSOE ganaría al PP en València tras 24 años y podría reeditar el gobierno de las izquierdas". Público (in Spanish). 20 April 2019.
  9. ^ "ElectoPanel diario Com. Valenciana (21A): Vox a dos escaños de alcanzar a Ciudadanos". Electomanía (in Spanish). 21 April 2019.
  10. ^ "Ximo Puig amplía su ventaja con el PP y podría gobernar con Compromís y Podemos". El Confidencial (in Spanish). 22 April 2019.
  11. ^ "ElectoPanel diario Com. Valenciana (20A): baja el PP, sube Vox". Electomanía (in Spanish). 20 April 2019.
  12. ^ "ElectoPanel diario Com. Valenciana (19A): Vox continúa al alza y casi alcanza a Ciudadanos". Electomanía (in Spanish). 19 April 2019.
  13. ^ "ElectoPanel Com. Valenciana (18A): subida de Vox, que se acerca a Ciudadanos". Electomanía (in Spanish). 18 April 2019.
  14. ^ "PSPV y Compromís bordean la mayoría sin necesitar a Podemos". Las Provincias (in Spanish). 21 April 2019.
  15. ^ "ElectoPanel Com. Valenciana (17A): la izquierda sigue cobrando ventaja". Electomanía (in Spanish). 17 April 2019.
  16. ^ "ElectoPanel Com. Valenciana (16A): suben Compromis y UP". Electomanía (in Spanish). 16 April 2019.
  17. ^ "Ximo Puig revalidaría su mayoría con los nacionalistas y Podemos". El Mundo (in Spanish). 19 April 2019.
  18. ^ "ElectoPanel Com. Valenciana (15A): El Botànic aguanta por la mínima". Electomanía (in Spanish). 15 April 2019.
  19. ^ "La izquierda ganará las valencianas y pelea las generales por la división de PP, Cs y Vox". El Confidencial (in Spanish). 17 April 2019.
  20. ^ "Sondeo VP: el Botànic gobernaría de nuevo ante la caída de PP y Ciudadanos". Valencia Plaza (in Spanish). 21 April 2019.
  21. ^ "El PSPV sería el más votado en las elecciones autonómicas en la Comunitat Valenciana con reedición por la mínima del Botànic". El Periódico de Aquí (in Spanish). 13 April 2019.
  22. ^ "ElectoPanel autonómico (12A): las mayorías siguen en el aire". Electomanía (in Spanish). 12 April 2019.
  23. ^ a b "La izquierda aumenta su ventaja en la Comunidad Valenciana". El País (in Spanish). 13 April 2019.
  24. ^ "Estimación de voto y proyección de escaños en la Comunidad Valenciana". El País (in Spanish). 13 April 2019.
  25. ^ a b c "Mayoría justa del Botànic". Levante-EMV (in Spanish). 14 April 2019.
  26. ^ "PSOE, Compromís y Podemos, a las puertas de reeditar por la mínima su acuerdo de Gobierno en Valencia". eldiario.es (in Spanish). 12 April 2019.
  27. ^ "El PSOE se aúpa a la primera posición en la Comunitat Valenciana con los votos que arrastra de Podemos y Compromís". eldiario.es (in Spanish). 13 April 2019.
  28. ^ "Puig ganará el 28-A y le quitará diez escaños a Compromís y Podemos". Las Provincias (in Spanish). 31 March 2019.
  29. ^ "ElectoPanel autonómicas (3A): Ciudadanos decidirá el bloque ganador en la mayoría de CCAA". Electomanía (in Spanish). 3 April 2019.
  30. ^ "ElectoPanel autonómico (27M). Semana de retrocesos para Vox". Electomanía (in Spanish). 27 March 2019.
  31. ^ a b c d e "Preelectoral elecciones autonómicas 2019. Comunidad Valenciana (Estudio nº 3244. Marzo 2019)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 11 April 2019.
  32. ^ "ElectoPanel Autonómico (20M): 'Navarra Suma' (PP-Cs-UPN) no suma para recuperar el Gobierno Foral". Electomanía (in Spanish). 20 March 2019.
  33. ^ "ElectoPanel autonómico 13M: el PSOE es el más votado, pero la derecha suma en la mayoría de CCAA". Electomanía (in Spanish). 13 March 2019.
  34. ^ "Vuelco a la derecha en Valencia". La Razón (in Spanish). 6 March 2019.
  35. ^ "ElectoPanel autonómico: la irrupción de Vox en casi todas las CCAA posibilitaría a la derecha gobernar la mayoría de ellas". Electomanía (in Spanish). 6 March 2019.
  36. ^ "A la andaluza: Bonig (PP) sería presidenta con el apoyo de Cs y Vox gracias a la debacle de Podem". Valencia Plaza (in Spanish). 3 February 2019.
  37. ^ "El escenario electoral convulso". La Razón (in Spanish). 16 January 2019.
  38. ^ "Peligro para el Botànic por la caída de Podemos y el repunte de la derecha con Cs de líder". Levante-EMV (in Spanish). 11 January 2019.
  39. ^ "Encuesta de intención de voto en la C. Valenciana: Mayoría de PSPV y Compromís". Levante-EMV (in Spanish). 9 October 2018.
  40. ^ "Una encuesta del PSPV lo sitúa como primera fuerza valenciana 27 años después". Levante-EMV (in Spanish). 20 September 2018.
  41. ^ a b "El PSPV (por ahora) se sale". Valencia Plaza (in Spanish). 15 September 2018.
  42. ^ a b "Una encuesta del Bloc sitúa a Compromís como primera fuerza igualada con Ciudadanos". Valencia Plaza (in Spanish). 2 May 2018.
  43. ^ "Ciudadanos podría gobernar con el PSPV y desbancar al tripartito". Las Provincias (in Spanish). 6 May 2018.
  44. ^ "Estimación de lo que votarían los valencianos". Las Provincias (in Spanish). 6 May 2018.
  45. ^ "COMUNIDAD VALENCIANA. Elecciones autonómicas. Encuesta SigmaDos para Las Provincias. Abril 2018". Electograph (in Spanish). 6 May 2018.
  46. ^ "Sondeo: EUPV entra en Les Corts y refuerza una mayoría de izquierdas... liderada por Oltra". Valencia Plaza (in Spanish). 22 April 2018.
  47. ^ "Sondeo de Podem: el Botànic resiste ante el ascenso de Ciudadanos y la debacle del PP". Valencia Plaza (in Spanish). 8 April 2018.
  48. ^ "COMUNIDAD VALENCIANA. Elecciones autonómicas. Sondeo MyWord para Podemos. Enero 2018". Electograph (in Spanish). 8 April 2018.
  49. ^ "La izquierda aumenta ventaja". Levante-EMV (in Spanish). 9 October 2017.
  50. ^ "El PSPV abre brecha con Compromís y EU regresa a Les Corts ante el desplome de Podemos". Valencia Plaza (in Spanish). 9 October 2017.
  51. ^ "Encuesta VP: el bloque de izquierdas mantiene su mayoría y Compromís iguala al PSPV". Valencia Plaza (in Spanish). 11 September 2017.
  52. ^ "El Govern del Botànic resiste". Levante-EMV (in Spanish). 6 May 2017.
  53. ^ "Fuerte bajada de Compromís, pero el tripartito resiste". Las Provincias (in Spanish). 7 May 2017.
  54. ^ "Puig gana ventaja ante un Compromís con fuerte desgaste". Las Provincias (in Spanish). 7 May 2017.
  55. ^ a b "Una encuesta de Compromís le sitúa siete puntos por encima del PSPV y empatado con el PP". Valencia Plaza (in Spanish). 25 April 2017.
  56. ^ a b "El tripartito mantiene la mayoría con solo un escaño más que PP y Ciudadanos". Levante-EMV (in Spanish). 9 October 2016.
  57. ^ a b "La izquierda ganaría otra vez con Compromís de primera fuerza si se celebraran autonómicas". Levante-EMV (in Spanish). 13 June 2016.
  58. ^ "La izquierda volvería a ganar mientras el PP sigue cayendo". Levante-EMV (in Spanish). 12 October 2015.
  59. ^ "La izquierda volvería a ganar mientras el PP sigue cayendo". Levante-EMV (in Spanish). 9 October 2015.
Other
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